GBP/USD softens near 1.319 as the dollar steadies and BoE signals only gradual easing

Forex

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

GBP/USD is hovering around 1.319 as the U.S. Dollar Index oscillates near the high-99s and UK policymakers continue to guide for a slow, data-dependent path to lower rates..

SELL GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.31590

Entry Price

1.31000

1.32000

1.33278 -0.00034 -0.03%

59.0

Pips

Profit

1.31000

1.30995

Exit Price

1.31590

Entry Price

1.32000

Overview

Sterling’s macro backdrop has cooled from the summer’s momentum, with UK CPI stuck at 3.8% year-on-year and inflation expectations rising in October, a mix that keeps the Bank of England cautious about cutting too quickly even as growth slows. Recent BoE communications framed policy as on a gradual downward path but warned against over-interpreting any change in wording, which leaves rate-differential support for GBP limited while not outright bearish.

Against that, the dollar has stabilized after the Fed’s late-October cut, with DXY rotating just under 100 rather than trending lower, enough to blunt sterling rallies absent a positive UK surprise. Intraday, Reuters marked cable around 1.3190 today, consistent with a market fading strength toward prior tops while the dollar finds a floor.

Market sentiment

Risk appetite is orderly rather than euphoric, with the VIX hovering near ~21 on 17/11, a level that neither forces a dash into the dollar nor reliably sustains high-beta FX breakouts.

Positioning has shifted toward opportunistic dollar buying on dips as traders respect the 99–100 DXY shelf and monitor the backlog of U.S. data; for GBP specifically, the absence of a hawkish BoE impulse and still-elevated UK inflation expectations argue for fading sterling strength into resistance until either DXY weakens decisively or UK data surprise to the upside.

Technical analysis

GBP/USD softens near 1.319 as the dollar steadies and BoE signals only gradual easing_1

The short-term structure tilts bearish. Price action has been stalling at or just under the Bollinger mid-line after failing to sustain above the upper band in the 1.3200–1.3220 pocket, preserving a sequence of lower intraday highs that typically resolves into fresh lower-band tests if the mid-line keeps capping rebounds.

On Ichimoku, price is rotating beneath or into the underside of the M15 cloud with Tenkan ≤ Kijun, turning the Kumo into dynamic resistance on pops toward the low-1.32s. Stochastic has rolled over from mid-range; a renewed %K < %D cross from the 50 area on shallow upticks would normally precede another push toward the lower band. With DXY holding firm near the big figure, rallies into the mid-line/cloud zone are vulnerable to rejection.

Trade Recommendations

Entry: 1.3159

TP: 1.3100

SL: 1.320

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

If this technical support level continues to hold, it could pave the way for a fresh upward impulse, potentially targeting the 1.4080 area.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.40322

Entry Price

1.40800

1.39900

1.38195 +0.00048 +0.03%

24.6

Pips

Profit

1.39900

1.40568

Exit Price

1.40322

Entry Price

1.40800

Canadian headline inflation saw a modest reduction in October, as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased to 2.2% year-over-year (YoY). This figure came in fractionally above the anticipated 2.1% but represented a decline from September’s 2.4%. On a month-over-month (MoM) basis, the CPI increased by 0.2%, which was precisely in line with expectations and slightly stronger than the 0.1% rise observed in September.

However, the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) preferred measure of underlying price pressure showed few signs of easing. The core CPI reading accelerated, increasing by 0.6% in October following a 0.2% rise in the prior month. The annual core rate also crept higher, ticking up to 2.9% from 2.8%. This data strongly suggests that underlying price pressure remains firmly entrenched even as headline inflation continues its gradual cooling trend.

In geopolitical news, President Donald Trump reversed tariffs on over 200 products, including items such as coffee, bananas, and orange juice. This decision was reportedly made in recognition of the inflationary impact caused by increased import costs, and it followed a series of political victories for Democratic candidates in local elections. The market’s reaction to this tariff news, however, proved to be marginal.

Meanwhile, the U.S. labor data calendar has been impacted by the recent government shutdown. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on Friday that key delayed releases now have revised dates: the September Employment Situation report is rescheduled for November 20th, and September Real Earnings is set for November 21st, both at 13:30 GMT. U.S. Secretary of Labor Chavez-Deremer also cautioned that the agency was unable to fully collect the data necessary for the October CPI report, raising the possibility that this particular data release may be canceled entirely.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson delivered cautious yet slightly dovish remarks on Monday, highlighting the growing risks to employment and a gradual cooling in the labor market. His commentary stood in contrast to the more hawkish messaging from other Fed officials in the preceding week. Jefferson stated that policymakers must proceed with caution as interest rates approach the neutral level, and he warned that the extent of available government data before the next policy meeting remains unclear. Following last week’s hawkish commentary, which emphasized that inflation remains the central concern despite softer labor market signals, market expectations for a Fed rate cut have notably diminished. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in December has plummeted to approximately 44%, a sharp decline from the 94% probability recorded just one month prior. Bullish Momentum Set to Resume as Key MA Support Holds Firm_1

Bullish Momentum Set to Resume as Key MA Support Holds Firm_1

Technical Analysis

The USDCAD currency pair has established a distinct consolidation phase situated just above the 100-period Moving Average (MA) on the 1-hour chart, which currently stands at 1.4018. The 200-period MA is positioned slightly above the current price action at 1.4044. The 100-period MA has been effectively acting as a strong bullish bounce zone. If this technical support level continues to hold, it could pave the way for a fresh upward impulse, potentially targeting the 1.4080 area. This specific level is crucial as it aligns closely with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, a level often sought out as a primary target following market corrections.

Adding conviction to the bullish outlook, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also found robust support at the 43 level, located just below the neutral midline. The indicator’s failure to enter deeply into oversold territory suggests that bullish control remains intact. Consequently, the path is clear for a new upward movement to initiate. However, traders should note that a decisive break below the 100-period MA would invalidate the current bullish structure and could open the door for a deeper bearish correction.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.4027

Target price: 1.4080

Stop loss: 1.3990

Validity: Nov 28, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

AUD/USD slips toward 0.6510 as investors unwind recent gains amid a stronger US Dollar, hawkish Fed rhetoric, and fading domestic support despite solid Australian labour data.

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.65135

Entry Price

0.64400

0.65400

0.66381 -0.00002 0.00%

26.1

Pips

Profit

0.64400

0.64874

Exit Price

0.65135

Entry Price

0.65400

AUD/USD weakened on Monday, trading near 0.6510 and slipping roughly 0.40% intraday as the Australian Dollar lost ground against a broadly firmer US Dollar. The pair is unwinding part of last week’s rally as markets rapidly reprice expectations around Federal Reserve policy amid a renewed chorus of hawkish commentary from US central bankers.

The Dollar’s recovery has been driven in large part by Fed officials reiterating that the current monetary stance remains “restrictive,” a message that effectively cools speculation of a December rate cut. For investors who had embraced the idea of an earlier policy shift, the rhetoric comes as a reminder that the Fed remains unwilling to loosen prematurely, especially with inflation still running above its 2% target.

The Australian Dollar’s retreat also reflects cooling enthusiasm around last week’s robust labour-market data, which had initially provided a short-term boost for the currency. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the unemployment rate slipped to 4.3% in October, while employment surged by 42.2K — driven almost entirely by full-time job creation.

Despite the strength of these figures, traders appear reluctant to push the Aussie higher, particularly with the Reserve Bank of Australia preparing to release the minutes from its November meeting on Tuesday. The RBA left rates unchanged at 3.6% earlier this month, emphasising that inflation remains too high and embedding the view that policy makers are not yet considering a pivot.

Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser reinforced this stance last week, describing current settings as “mildly restrictive” and acknowledging that internal debate persists over whether policy is adequately calibrated. Markets remain sceptical that rate cuts are anywhere near. ASX 30-Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures show just a 6% probability of a cut in December 2025, highlighting how firmly expectations are anchored.

In the United States, uncertainty lingers over the economic calendar following the end of the government shutdown, which halted data collection in October. While the September Nonfarm Payrolls report has been rescheduled for November 20, key indicators for October may not be produced at all. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett warned that several data sets might be permanently lost.

The vacuum of fresh data has left markets leaning heavily on Fed communications — and officials have delivered a unified message. Kansas City Fed President Jeffery Schmid urged policymakers to “lean against demand growth,” reinforcing that the current stance is “modestly restrictive.” St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem noted rates were moving closer to neutral but emphasised the dangers of cutting too soon. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari flagged stress within segments of the labour market while warning inflation remains sticky near 3%.

The consistent messaging has shifted rate-cut expectations decisively. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25-bp cut in December has fallen to 46%, down sharply from 67% just a week earlier.

Adding to the Dollar’s momentum, the latest New York Empire State Manufacturing Index surged to 18.7 in November, far exceeding expectations of 6 and up from 10.7 previously — another sign that segments of the US economy remain resilient despite restrictive policy.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, AUD/USD price action continues to track lower, aligned with the broader bearish trend dominating recent weeks. While the pair staged a modest oversold rebound, the move appears corrective rather than trend-defining.

The key resistance level sits at 0.6560, a previous consolidation zone. A failure to break above this region would likely reinforce bearish sentiment.

Should sellers reassert control, initial support emerges at 0.6480, followed by 0.6460 and 0.6440 over the medium term — levels consistent with momentum indicators that continue to tilt bearish.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL AUDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.65135

STOP LOSS: 0.6540

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6440

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

WTI crude edged higher on Monday as risk sentiment steadied and Russia restored shipments from its Novorossiysk port, though lingering geopolitical tensions and a looming US data backlog kept traders cautious.

BUY WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

59.999

Entry Price

64.000

58.000

59.373 -0.436 -0.73%

199.9

Pips

Loss

58.000

57.996

Exit Price

59.999

Entry Price

64.000

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil inched higher on Monday, supported by an improving risk environment and easing supply disruptions after Russia restored crude shipments from its Novorossiysk export hub. The move provided markets with some relief following last week’s Ukrainian strike that had briefly halted operations and lifted geopolitical risk premiums. At the time of writing, WTI traded near $60.00 per barrel, up roughly 0.5% on the day after rebounding from an early slide toward $59.22.

The rapid resumption of activity at the Black Sea port helped unwind part of the volatility injected into the market late last week. Still, traders remain reluctant to fully unwind geopolitical hedges, given that strikes targeting Russian energy infrastructure have become increasingly recurrent. The conflict’s fluid dynamics—and the potential for renewed disruptions—continue to inject a layer of headline-driven volatility into crude markets, keeping risk appetite in check.

The stabilization comes at a moment when investors are bracing for a flood of delayed United States economic data following the end of the government shutdown. With the US representing one of the world’s largest consumers of crude, traders are keenly awaiting indicators that will reveal whether demand is holding firm. Any signs of slowing growth or waning consumer activity could quickly dampen the market’s fragile optimism, especially given recent concerns that the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer stance may weigh on fuel consumption during the first quarter of next year.

Beyond short-term catalysts, the broader outlook for crude remains clouded by persistent oversupply concerns. Forecasts from major energy agencies—including the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)—project that global supply growth will continue to exceed demand through at least 2026. Rising non-OPEC production, particularly from US shale basins and faster-than-expected output from Brazil and Guyana, is adding to a global surplus that has kept a firm ceiling on prices despite geopolitical hotspots flaring across key production regions.

In my view, this structural imbalance is increasingly weighing on sentiment. Markets appear increasingly convinced that OPEC+ may need to consider deeper or more coordinated supply management strategies in early 2026 if they aim to stabilize prices above the $60–$65 range. Without additional intervention, the supply overhang could become more pronounced, particularly if macroeconomic softness in Europe and Asia persists into the second half of the year.

Technical Analysis

Technically, WTI remains trapped beneath a dense cluster of resistance levels that have repeatedly capped bullish attempts over the past several weeks. The $61.00–$61.50 zone remains the most immediate ceiling, aligning with the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a former support region that has since flipped into a formidable resistance band. Since late October, this region has rejected multiple recovery attempts, reinforcing the market’s bearish undertone.

A daily close above this zone would be required to alleviate downside pressure, but the path higher remains far from straightforward. Even if bulls manage to reclaim the 21-day SMA, the next major barrier sits near the 100-day SMA around $62.89—a level that has not been sustainably breached since September.

On the downside, initial support lies around $59.00, followed by the more psychologically significant $58.00 handle. A break below these levels would risk accelerating bearish momentum, potentially opening a path toward the mid-$50s if macro headwinds intensify.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY WTI

ENTRY PRICE: 60.00

STOP LOSS: 58.00

TAKE PROFIT: 64.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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King Ten

Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Canadian dollar held marginal gains on Monday, with USD/CAD locked in a tight range ahead of key Canadian CPI and long-delayed U.S. data releases.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.40300

Entry Price

1.41500

1.39500

1.38195 +0.00048 +0.03%

20.0

Pips

Profit

1.39500

1.40500

Exit Price

1.40300

Entry Price

1.41500

The Canadian Dollar struggled to extend its early strength on Monday, holding only modest gains against a slightly firmer U.S. Dollar as investors braced for a busy week of delayed economic releases from both sides of the border. The USD/CAD pair continued to oscillate within the narrow 1.4000–1.4050 band that has dominated recent sessions, reflecting a broader environment of subdued risk appetite and currency markets stuck in consolidation mode.

Despite the cautious tone across global markets, the U.S. Dollar maintained a slight advantage, buoyed by defensive flows as traders awaited clarity on the direction of U.S. growth and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. With several key data releases only now being published after government delays, investors have been reluctant to take decisive positions, leaving most major pairs to drift within familiar territory.

The highlight of the North American session is Canada’s October Consumer Price Index (CPI), a report that may help sharpen expectations for the Bank of Canada’s next steps after an extended period of tightening. Headline inflation is forecast to rise 0.2% month-on-month, a modest pick-up from September’s 0.1%. However, the annual rate is expected to cool to 2.1%, down from 2.4%, marking progress toward the central bank’s 2% target.

A softer inflation print would reinforce the Bank of Canada’s recent shift toward a more cautious stance, potentially weighing on the Canadian Dollar by strengthening expectations that further rate hikes are unlikely—and that rate cuts may come sooner next year if disinflation continues. Still, with the labour market showing signs of resilience and energy prices stabilizing, investors remain divided on whether the BoC will pivot as quickly as bond markets currently suggest.

On the U.S. side, attention turns to the New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State Manufacturing Index, which is expected to decline to 6.0 in November from October’s reading of 10. While still in positive territory, the slowdown would add to evidence that the U.S. industrial sector continues to face pressure from weaker global demand and tighter financial conditions.

Later in the session, the U.S. Census Bureau is set to release construction spending data for August—the first in a backlog of delayed economic updates. Markets expect a 0.1% decline, matching the prior month’s contraction. While not typically a market-moving release, the data may help investors refine their understanding of U.S. economic momentum as the fourth quarter progresses.

Markets are watching whether the delayed data will reveal a still-resilient economy—or show signs of fatigue that could push the Fed closer to a dovish tilt. For now, Fed officials continue to signal a data-dependent approach, leaving the USD sensitive to even small surprises.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, USD/CAD has seen intraday gains, supported by a dominant short-term bullish trend and steady trading along an upward-sloping trend line. The pair’s resilience above the key psychological 1.4000 level underscores the strength of underlying demand, with momentum indicators flashing constructive signals following a reset from overbought levels.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows renewed positive overlap, hinting that bulls may attempt another push toward the upper boundary of the recent range near 1.4050. A clean break above that level could open a broader pathway toward 1.4150 and beyond, assuming U.S. Dollar strength persists.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDCAD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.4030

STOP LOSS: 1.3950

TAKE PROFIT: 1.4150

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Summary:

Ukraine strikes Russia's key export hub, sparking crude-supply fears.

BUY WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

60.212

Entry Price

64.360

57.300

59.373 -0.436 -0.73%

291.2

Pips

Loss

57.300

57.294

Exit Price

60.212

Entry Price

64.360

Fundamentals

On Friday, oil prices gained nearly 1% in early trading after reports that Ukrainian drones had struck a key Russian export hub, reviving supply-risk concerns.

Nevertheless, WTI crude posted a weekly loss and is down around 15% year-to-date as consensus builds for an oversupplied market.

Last week, the rise in U.S. crude inventories underscored weakening demand in the world's largest consumer. Meanwhile, the IEA revised this year's projected surplus higher. The OPEC estimates that supply exceeded demand in Q3.

Near-term WTI direction will hinge on incoming inventory statistics and geopolitical developments in producing regions. Shifts in the global demand outlook or U.S.-dollar strength—driven by trade headlines or Fed rate expectations—will also shape price action.

Momentum-Structure Divergence, Trade Structure-Driven_1

Technical Analysis

OWTI crude oil remains under sustained selling pressure, with the downtrend-channel resistance capping any attempted rallies. After failing to break above the upper bound of the channel, Fibonacci-expansion projections now point to a deeper retracement.

Oil is currently changing hands around $59.80/bbl, a level that coincides with the 50% Fibonacci-extension handle. Having been rejected at the channel resistance near $60.70/bbl, the market appears to be shifting its focus toward further downside in the sessions ahead.

The Fibonacci extension tool highlights potential downside targets that sellers may be aiming for. The 61.8% extension level is located at $58.69, while the 76.4% extension level sits at $58.22. Should the decline persist, WTI crude could slide toward the 100% Fibonacci extension at $57.45—a key area of interest and the next probable support zone.

In terms of moving averages, the SMA100 is positioned below the SMA200, confirming that the downside remains the path of least resistance and the prevailing downtrend is more likely to persist. Price currently trades beneath both dynamic levels, implying they may act as resistance on any attempted rebound.

The Stochastic Oscillator, having retreated from overbought territory, is now hovering near the midpoint of its range, suggesting scope for bullish momentum to rebuild. With limited room before the indicator would reach oversold levels, accumulation by buyers could be underway in the near term.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutrally aligned. Although bulls retain control, no sign of exhaustion has yet emerged.

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 59.67

Target Price: 64.36

Stop Loss: 57.30

Valid Until: December 2, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 59.48/59.13/58.64

Resistance Levels: 60.24/60.46/61.19

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Summary:

Gold’s decline from $4,381 marks Phase-1 correction. Phase-2 likely ended last week. Expect a retest of the DMA55 at $3,907, yet the broader bull structure remains intact. Near-term bounce targets $4,180.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4083.06

Entry Price

4180.00

4035.00

4209.73 +11.82 +0.28%

480.6

Pips

Loss

4035.00

4034.58

Exit Price

4083.06

Entry Price

4180.00

Fundamentals

Gold prices edged higher on Monday. After falling for two straight sessions as optimism over a Fed rate cut next month faded. The metal is now trading around $4,100, which have dropped more than 2% in the previous session when Fed officials showed little conviction about lowering borrowing costs.

The late-week decline extends the corrective structure that began after gold printed an all-time high in mid-October. The initial sell-off, the early-November bounce and the latest pullback together constitute a consolidation phase, indicating the market is still searching for direction following months of relentless strength.

Both fundamentals and technicals suggest this state of indecision will persist in the near term. The overarching uptrend remains intact, but without a clear catalyst price action is likely to stay choppy. Printing record highs is still embedded in the medium-term base case, yet the timeline skews toward early-2026 rather than the remainder of 2025.

Fundamentally, the loss of momentum in gold’s ascent began when China-U.S. trade tensions were dialled down under a one-year stand-still accord that blocks any further escalation of tariff and non-tariff measures. The agreement stripped out the risk premium that had been funnelling sizeable flows into precious metals. With geopolitical pressure now reduced, the market lacks the sense of urgency needed to extend the rally.

The recent sell-off has been driven primarily by a repricing of Fed expectations. With the market now assigning a negligible probability to a December rate cut, the near-term appeal of non-yielding assets has diminished. Nevertheless, the broader policy trajectory remains dovish. Once the current fog lifts, next year’s easing cycle should provide a backstop for gold.

The challenge is that macro visibility will not improve overnight. Although U.S. data releases resumed after last week’s government shutdown ended, neither the Fed nor investors will have a clean read on underlying conditions until the December publication schedule is fully restored. This keeps policymakers in a watchful stance and prevents asset managers from staking out directional positions.

Gold Steadies but Lacks Momentum, Awaiting Next Policy Cue_1

Technical Analysis

In From a technical perspective, gold’s decline from $4,381 to $3,886 completes the first leg of the corrective pattern that began at $3,267. The second leg likely terminated last week at $4,244. Downside follow-through is now expected toward the SMA55 (currently $3,907), where a relief bounce may emerge. A decisive break below that support, however, would open the 100% retracement of the $4,244.86–$3,886.41 range at $3,750, where the correction is anticipated to end.

Within the short-term structure, gold still has upward momentum, with a target of $4,180.