Fiscal Expansion Coupled with Yield Distortion, JPY’s Structural Weakness May Persist Into 2026

Forex

Summary:

Officials of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) stated that monetary policy will remain on an upward trajectory. The Japanese yen’s structural weakness is expected to persist into 2026.

BUY USDJPY

EXP

TRADING

156.641

Entry Price

161.070

154.000

156.658 +0.239 +0.15%

0.0

Pips

Flat

154.000

Exit Price

156.641

Entry Price

161.070

Fundamentals

The Japanese yen’s struggle to stage a substantive rebound has become a key feature of year-end trading. Even the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike in December failed to provide sustained support, highlighting the entrenched strength of bearish positions.

Carry trade dynamics remain crucial. Despite lingering valuation concerns, the Nikkei Index has maintained a strong upward momentum year to date, driven by optimism surrounding Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s new administration and sustained enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and tech stocks.

The scale of this rally is remarkable. Surging from around the 30,000-point mark in April, the Nikkei Index broke through 50,000 points in early November to hit an all-time high, registering one of the strongest gains in decades. Although the market has seen some volatility since November, the index has so far stabilized within a wide range around the 50,000-point level. Such consolidation indicates underlying robust upward momentum, leaving room for another rally early next year.

Meanwhile, fiscal concerns are quietly mounting. Japan’s expansionary budgetary policies have pushed up long-term bond yields. The 30-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield remains near its historical high of 3.4%, while the 10-year JGB yield also hovers above 2%, a multi-decade peak. Even so, yields are still artificially suppressed. Crucially, the Bank of Japan remains a large-scale buyer of government bonds, which effectively caps the rise in long-term bond yields.

As a result, risks that would typically push yields higher, such as fiscal sustainability issues, are instead priced into the Japanese yen. This dynamic exposes the yen to further downside risks in the coming months. Even if the government takes direct intervention measures that go beyond verbal warnings, it will be difficult to deliver lasting relief.

Fiscal Expansion Coupled with Yield Distortion, JPY’s Structural Weakness May Persist Into 2026_1

Technical Analysis

In USDJPY trading, the exchange rate has continued to consolidate below 157.88. The intraday trend remains neutral. With the 154.33 support level still holding, the outlook remains bullish. On the upside, a decisive break above the key structural resistance level of 158.85 will serve as a major medium-term bullish signal, with the next target at the 161.94 high. However, a break below 154.38 will shift the trend to bearish, potentially triggering a deeper correction.

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 156.41

Target Price: 161.07

Stop Loss: 154.00

Valid Until: 16, January, 2026, 23:55:00

Support: 156.04/155.54/154.33

Resistance Levels: 156.73/157.05/157.76

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

EUR/USD has turned modestly higher after finding support near 1.1720, with fading US dollar momentum and policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed keeping the broader bias constructive despite thin year-end liquidity.

BUY EURUSD

EXP

TRADING

1.17548

Entry Price

1.18200

1.17160

1.17453 -0.00021 -0.02%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1.17160

Exit Price

1.17548

Entry Price

1.18200

The euro has regained a firmer footing against the US dollar, with EUR/USD turning positive on the daily chart on Wednesday as selling pressure in the greenback begins to ease. The pair found solid demand around the 1.1720 area during the European morning session before pushing back above 1.1750, where it was trading as markets headed into the US opening. While the rebound remains tentative, the price action suggests that downside momentum is losing traction, even as year-end conditions keep trading volumes subdued.

The immediate catalyst for the mild recovery appears to be a loss of steam in the recent US dollar bounce. With liquidity thinning sharply ahead of the New Year holiday, even modest shifts in expectations can generate outsized moves. Attention later in the session turns to US Initial Jobless Claims, one of the few remaining top-tier data points before markets effectively shut down for the year. While the release is unlikely to dramatically alter the macro narrative on its own, it could inject some short-lived volatility into what has otherwise been a sleepy trading environment.

Looking beyond the day-to-day fluctuations, the broader trend continues to favor the common currency. The euro is on course to post an annual gain of roughly 14% against the dollar, a striking performance that underscores the scale of the shift in global monetary policy expectations over the past year. At the heart of this move lies a clear divergence between the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. While the ECB has signaled a willingness to keep policy restrictive for longer in its fight against inflation, the Fed has moved closer to the end of its tightening cycle and has already begun easing policy.

Political and structural factors in the United States have added to the dollar’s woes. President Donald Trump’s unpredictable approach to trade policy has injected a fresh layer of uncertainty into the outlook for US growth and global trade flows. At the same time, signs of a softening US economy have become harder to ignore, reinforcing the view that US interest rates are more likely to fall than rise in the months ahead. Together, these dynamics have steadily eroded the dollar’s yield advantage, a key pillar of its strength in previous years.

The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s latest meeting, released on Tuesday, offered further insight into the shifting balance within the Fed. They revealed a wider-than-expected divergence among policymakers, with the decision to cut rates by 25 basis points passing by a narrower margin than markets had assumed. Importantly, the committee emphasized that any additional easing would depend on a sustained and convincing decline in inflation. This conditional stance has cast doubt over the timing and pace of future rate cuts, prompting a brief bout of dollar strength immediately after the minutes were published.

However, that reaction proved short-lived. Investors appear increasingly skeptical that the Fed will be able to maintain a restrictive stance for long if economic data continue to soften. As a result, rallies in the dollar are being viewed as opportunities to sell rather than the start of a more durable recovery, particularly against currencies such as the euro that are underpinned by a relatively more hawkish central bank outlook.

From a market structure perspective, conditions remain far from ideal for trend-following strategies. Most major financial centers will be closed on Thursday for New Year celebrations, while Japanese markets are shut for the remainder of the week. These closures are likely to keep liquidity thin and price action choppy, increasing the risk of false breakouts in either direction.

Technical analysis

On the technical front, EUR/USD is showing early signs of stabilization, though the recovery is still fragile. On the four-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index has rebounded from levels close to oversold territory, indicating that bearish pressure is easing. Nevertheless, the RSI remains below the neutral 50 mark, suggesting that upside momentum has yet to fully reassert itself. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator tells a similar story: bearish momentum is fading, but the MACD line is still below zero, pointing to lingering downside risks.

Key resistance levels remain clearly defined. A reverse trendline, currently around 1.1770, is likely to act as the first major obstacle to any sustained bullish reversal. A decisive break above this area would open the door toward the December 16 and December 24 highs near 1.1805. Beyond that, the September 23 and 24 peaks around 1.1820 come into focus, a zone that could prove challenging without a stronger fundamental catalyst.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.17550

STOP LOSS: 1.17160

TAKE PROFIT: 1.1820

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The yen continues to crumble as the Bank of Japan’s slow policy shift contrasts sharply with a firming ECB outlook, keeping EUR/JPY near multi-decade highs with technicals pointing to further upside toward 185.50.

BUY EURJPY

EXP

TRADING

184.100

Entry Price

185.500

183.300

183.993 +0.202 +0.11%

0.0

Pips

Flat

183.300

Exit Price

184.100

Entry Price

185.500

The Japanese yen continues to struggle near the bottom of the major currency performance table, extending its underwhelming run during thin holiday trading on Wednesday. Against the euro, the yen remains firmly on the defensive, with EUR/JPY gravitating toward the 184.00 level by the European midday session. The pair rebounded from the 183.50 area on Tuesday, but the recovery has done little to alter the broader narrative of sustained yen weakness.

Viewed from a longer-term perspective, the cross remains uncomfortably close to its cycle highs. EUR/JPY is trading only a short distance below the long-term peak near 185.00 reached earlier this month and is on track to close the year with gains of more than 14%. Such a move is striking not only for its scale but also for its persistence, underscoring how deeply entrenched the negative sentiment toward the yen has become.

The primary driver of that sentiment continues to be the Bank of Japan’s hesitant approach to monetary normalisation. After years of ultra-loose policy, investors had hoped for a clearer and more decisive exit strategy. Instead, the BoJ has delivered cautious signals that tightening will continue, while offering little guidance on timing or pace. The latest Summary of Opinions from the central bank reaffirmed its commitment to further rate increases, yet stopped short of outlining a concrete path forward. This lack of clarity has reinforced the perception that any tightening will be slow, cautious and easily derailed by political considerations.

Those political considerations are increasingly important. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s expansionary fiscal stance has revived concerns about Japan’s already stretched public finances, raising doubts about how aggressively monetary policy can tighten without destabilising growth. At the same time, lingering uncertainty over potential US trade tariffs under Donald Trump has added another layer of risk for Japan’s export-oriented economy. Together, these factors have created what many investors see as a perfect storm for the yen, helping to explain why it has emerged as the weakest major currency performer of 2025.

In this environment, upside attempts in the yen have consistently failed to gain traction. The government is widely expected to oppose anything more than a very gradual normalisation cycle, effectively limiting how far Japanese yields can rise relative to their global peers. As long as that remains the case, yield differentials are likely to continue favouring yen selling on rallies rather than encouraging a sustained recovery.

By contrast, the euro has found modest but meaningful support from shifting expectations around European Central Bank policy. In recent weeks, ECB communication has increasingly suggested that the easing cycle may be over. While officials remain cautious and data-dependent, markets are beginning to price the possibility that the next policy move could be a rate hike, potentially in the second half of next year. That change in tone has given the euro additional lift, particularly against low-yielding currencies such as the yen.

Technical Analysis

From an analytical standpoint, this divergence in central bank trajectories remains the dominant force shaping EUR/JPY. Even without a strong growth impulse from the euro zone, relative policy expectations have been enough to keep the cross elevated. Unless the BoJ surprises markets with a clearer and more assertive tightening signal, or global risk sentiment deteriorates sharply enough to trigger broad safe-haven demand, the balance of risks continues to tilt against the yen.

The technical picture reinforces that view. EUR/JPY continues to trade within a well-defined upward channel, confirming that the broader bullish structure remains intact. Recent price action shows the pair consolidating rather than reversing, forming a bullish triangle pattern that typically precedes trend continuation. The series of higher lows over recent sessions highlights the willingness of buyers to step in on dips, absorbing selling pressure without allowing a deeper correction to develop.

As price action compresses near the upper boundary of this consolidation, the probability of a directional break is increasing. A strong bullish candle closing above the upper trendline would confirm a breakout and likely attract momentum-driven flows, rather than trigger profit-taking. In that scenario, the next area of interest sits around 185.50, extending beyond this month’s highs and reinforcing the sense that the rally has not yet run its course.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 184.10

STOP LOSS: 183.30

TAKE PROFIT: 185.50

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Alan

Commodity

Summary:

With the impact of geopolitical factors easing, supply-demand dynamics drive market movements again. Under an oversupplied environment, WTI may continue to weaken.

SELL WTI

EXP

TRADING

57.689

Entry Price

52.800

59.100

57.439 -0.414 -0.72%

0.0

Pips

Flat

52.800

Exit Price

57.689

Entry Price

59.100

Fundamentals

The core factor currently influencing oil prices lies in the dual pattern of ample supply and fragile demand. On one hand, global supply remains difficult to tighten quickly, given the resilience of U.S. production and news of overall output increases or maintained production levels from OPEC+. As a result, the market faces persistent downward pressure. Multiple institutions and media outlets note that although prices were temporarily jolted by geopolitical events during the year, oversupply has been the dominant factor overall.

On the other hand, international agencies are not entirely pessimistic about demand: IEA's monthly report revised 2026 demand slightly higher. However, this improvement is insufficient to absorb the current excess capacity immediately. In the short term, it is unlikely to change the fundamental backdrop of "slow inventory digestion."

In addition, positioning on exchanges and microstructure in the futures market have amplified intraday volatility: recent reports show futures positions and trading volumes declining seasonally toward year-end. If technical selling pressure or margin adjustments occur, price pullbacks could be magnified.

Technical Analysis

Market Returns to Oversupply Pattern, Decline May Continue_1

Based on the daily chart, WTI's trend stays within a descending channel. Recently, price action has repeatedly touched the upper rail of the descending channel but failed to break through effectively, indicating weakening bullish momentum and increasing likelihood of a near-term downtrend.

Currently, key resistance above WTI is around 58.76. If the price can break through and hold above this level in the short term, upside potential will open up, with a possible test of the 60.00 level. The primary support below is near 56.60, and WTI may continue lower to test the 55.00 support and potentially move toward the 50.00 level if this level is breached.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 57.60

Target price: 52.80

Stop loss: 59.10

Valid Until: January 14, 2026, 23:00:00

Support: 55.70/54.75

Resistance: 58.34/58.76

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Forex

Summary:

USD/CAD is hovering around ~1.368–1.370 with price stuck below 1.3700 as the Canadian dollar (CAD) finds temporary support from stable oil prices and risk-on sentiment that benefits commodity-linked currencies...

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.36898

Entry Price

1.37400

1.36500

1.37241 +0.00284 +0.21%

34.3

Pips

Profit

1.36500

1.37241

Exit Price

1.36898

Entry Price

1.37400

Overview

USD/CAD’s current behavior reflects the tug-of-war between two macro forces. On one hand, oil prices Canada’s largest export have stabilized and strengthened, bolstering CAD and capping USD/CAD under 1.3700, as seen in recent Asian session action.

Still, broader macro dynamics favor intermittent USD strength into year-end. The US Dollar has been rebuilding off five-month lows, and while upside has struggled, weak CAD momentum cannot be taken as confirmation of a collapsing USD trend. Dollar sentiment is conditioned by expectations around the Federal Reserve’s future rate path; markets are pricing in possible rate cuts in 2026, but the transition could be asymmetric and supportive of USD in short bursts around data/events like Fed Minutes.

Oil and CAD correlation is structural Canada is a major energy exporter to the US but oil’s current $57–$59 trading band has been providing only modest support to CAD. Therefore, if global equity risk returns or US growth data surprises to the upside, USD tends to outperform commodity currencies like CAD.

Market sentiment

Sentiment in the M15 timeframe shows a pair that is not collapsing in a clear downtrend, but also not trending strongly upward yet. USD/CAD’s recent consolidation below 1.3700 indicates short-term acceptance of stronger CAD levels amid risk-on flows and oil price stability.

However, sentiment has oscillated rather than directional conviction strengthening in CAD’s favor USD has been trying to stabilize after sharp losses earlier in the year and recent Fed Minutes, combined with holiday thin liquidity, can exaggerate moves in either direction. Given USD’s status as the world’s reserve currency, any shift toward risk-off or stronger US macro prints typically triggers renewed USD strength, which could spark upside in USD/CAD from current levels.

Technical analysis

USD/CAD bullish reversal brewing? Oil-linked loonie pressure may soon give way to USD strength_1

On M15, USD/CAD is trading near the lower range of the recent session, just below the Bollinger mid-band. The key technical setup lies in whether pullbacks find rejection at the Bollinger median combined with Ichimoku equilibrium (Kijun/Senkou span). A buy trigger would be a clean reclaim above the mid-band with confirmed support on the Ichimoku Kijun an indication that short-term momentum is flipping from sellers taking profit to buyers stepping in on dips toward value.

Bollinger Bands currently show relatively compressed volatility, meaning a breakout (either direction) could be swift once price structurally commits above/below a tight band squeeze. An upside breakout above the mid-band would signal buyers gaining control in the short term.The Ichimoku Cloud can serve as dynamic support/resistance; sustained closes above the Kijun-sen and through the cloud’s lower boundary on M15 would validate a bullish skew and offer confidence that the short dip toward 1.3641 (recent temporary low) is being rejected in favor of higher prices.

Stoch (5,3,3) oscillators approaching oversold or mid-range from below suggest room for upside momentum if buyers step in confidently on pullbacks near support zones. A rising stochastic crossing above its signal line while price holds above M15 cloud levels would be a classic early buy signal.

Trade recommendation

Entry: 1.3708–1.3715

Take Profit: 1.3740

Stop Loss: 1.3680

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

This specific price zone is attracting significant interest because it represents a classic support-resistance flip.

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.34539

Entry Price

1.35600

1.34100

1.34721 +0.00046 +0.03%

43.9

Pips

Loss

1.34100

Exit Price

1.34539

Entry Price

1.35600

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the domestic economy expanded at a robust annualized rate of 4.3% in the third quarter. This figure significantly outperformed market expectations of 3.3% and surpassed the previous estimate of 3.8%. Accompanying this strong growth, inflation metrics within the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report remained firm: the GDP Price Index rose by 3.7%, while Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) increased by 2.9%, with core PCE prices climbing 2.8%.

Despite this vigorous growth, the manufacturing sector exhibited signs of cooling. Durable Goods Orders fell by 2.2% in October, reversing a prior gain of 0.7%. Excluding defense, orders dropped by 1.5%, and while orders excluding transportation saw a marginal 0.2% increase, overall Industrial Production slipped by 0.1% month-over-month. In contrast, the housing market showed unexpected strength; data from the National Association of Realtors revealed that Pending Home Sales rose by 3.3% in November, marking their highest level since early 2023.

The Federal Reserve reduced the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, bringing the target range to 3.50%–3.75%. This marks a cumulative reduction of 75 bps in 2025 as the central bank navigates a cooling labor market and persistent inflation. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in an accelerated easing cycle, with traders anticipating at least two additional cuts by the end of September 2026.

Market participants anticipate that the Bank of England (BoE) will adopt a cautious approach toward monetary easing throughout 2026. In its most recent meeting, the institution cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the rate to 3.75%, while making it clear that any further adjustments would be implemented progressively.

This moderate stance is closely linked to the fact that inflation in the United Kingdom remains uncomfortably elevated. Although the headline index retreated to 3.2% in November from its September peak of 3.8%, it remains significantly above the central bank’s 2% target. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey recently suggested that the room for maneuver regarding further cuts may narrow as the policy stance approaches neutral levels. Consequently, future decisions will be heavily contingent on the evolution of macroeconomic data.

Looking toward 2026, the BoE’s trajectory will be strictly tied to the performance of the British labor market and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Throughout 2025, employment demand remained soft as many firms chose to halt hiring to offset the increase in social security contributions—a structural factor that could continue to hinder overall economic growth. Key Support Retest May Ignite the Next Bullish Expansion_1

Key Support Retest May Ignite the Next Bullish Expansion_1

Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair recently retraced to the 200-period Moving Average (MA), currently situated at 1.3452. This specific price zone is attracting significant interest because it represents a classic support-resistance flip; a level that previously functioned as a ceiling is now being tested as a technical floor.

The fact that this area is holding suggests that the prevailing bullish trend still possesses sufficient underlying strength to continue. On the 1-hour chart, the 100-period MA is located at 1.3500. When this level was breached to the downside, it effectively triggered the corrective move toward the 200-period MA. If this support holds firm, we could witness a renewed impulse toward the 1.3560 zone, which aligns with the 0.50 Fibonacci expansion. In technical terms, this means the next bullish leg could achieve a magnitude equal to 50% of the primary impulse.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rapidly approaching oversold territory, this condition could exert upward pressure, as the combination of key interest zones and momentum indicators suggest that the bullish trend remains the primary force. Notably, the RSI has shed significant levels even though the price has not made an equivalently large move to the downside, indicating exhaustion in the bearish momentum and granting bulls an opportunity to reclaim control. However, a forceful break below the current support level would clear the path for a deeper correction, putting the overall bullish trend in doubt.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3454

Target price: 1.3400

Stop loss: 1.3560

Validity: Jan 09, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Eva Chen

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices maintained their rebound amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and inflows of safe-haven capital.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4371.24

Entry Price

4465.00

4300.00

4319.61 -19.50 -0.45%

712.4

Pips

Loss

4300.00

4299.47

Exit Price

4371.24

Entry Price

4465.00

Fundamentals

Since December, the precious metals market has undergone a significant shift in sentiment amid intense volatility. After hitting a record high last weekend, gold prices retreated sharply on Monday, with spot gold briefly dipping to around US$4,300. With year-end holidays approaching, overall market liquidity has tightened noticeably. Concentrated profit-taking by previously accumulated long positions amplified the technical correction following months of substantial gains. Concurrently, a mild rebound in the U.S. dollar exerted short-term downward pressure on gold prices.

The adjustment in silver has been more pronounced. Last week, driven by silver's sustained strong rally, market attention rapidly intensified. Rumors of a “short squeeze” and margin calls briefly fueled the final surge on Friday. However, as sentiment gradually cooled, silver prices swiftly reversed course, plunging over US$7 intraday—marking the largest single-day nominal decline in history. The precious metals market currently exhibits pronounced sentiment-driven characteristics, and gold was no exception. Affected by profit-taking, it experienced a daily decline of nearly 4%.

The precious metals market is currently navigating a relatively challenging trading environment. Overall market liquidity remains generally low, which tends to amplify price fluctuations abnormally: on one hand, hedge funds are reluctant to counter-trend interventions to hedge excessive moves amid insufficient liquidity; on the other hand, market makers are also actively reducing their participation, further weakening the market's buffering capacity. This structural characteristic makes short-term prices more susceptible to sharp spikes and plunges.

However, from a medium-to-long-term perspective, the macroeconomic underpinnings for gold remain solid. The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance through next year and into 2026, with the outlook for a medium-term weakening of the U.S. dollar unchanged. Simultaneously, discussions surrounding central bank independence within the U.S. political landscape continue to amplify macroeconomic uncertainty, bolstering demand for safe-haven asset allocations. Against this backdrop, while gold and silver prices face near-term pressure from high-level adjustments and cooling sentiment, their downside potential is expected to be significantly constrained once the market completes its phase of consolidation.

Analyzing the Trading Logic of Gold in Low-Liquidity Environments_1

Technical Analysis

During European trading hours on Tuesday, gold prices held steady near US$4,350, maintaining their rebound momentum. This followed a 4.5% decline the previous session—the steepest single-day drop since October last year—after which prices recovered some losses. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME Group), one of the world's largest commodity trading platforms, raised margin requirements for gold and silver futures, triggering widespread profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing.

Based on historical instances where institutional selling pushed prices below US$100, buying on dips would be a prudent move, with stop-loss orders placed at the previous low.