Data shows that eurozone inflation accelerated in September, reinforcing the European Central Bank's (ECB) current plan to keep interest rates steady.

Eurostat reported Wednesday that core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food costs, held steady at 2.3% as expected. The ECB's latest quarterly projections indicate inflation remains broadly in line with its target, while the 20-nation eurozone economy has weathered U.S. tariff hikes. Consequently, ECB officials expressed satisfaction with current borrowing costs.

Although some policymakers remain concerned that ECB will not cut interest rates further beyond the eight 25-basis-point reductions already implemented. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated today that the current interest rate level is “appropriate and reasonable.”

From a longer-term perspective (such as 1D and 1W timeframe), the EURNZD has recently exhibited an upward bias within its medium-to-long-term trend. Barchart data indicates that the current price is above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs. This price action suggests that bulls retain the upper hand in the medium-to-long term.

However, in the medium to short term (such as intraday to several days, 4H timeframe, 1H timeframe), prices have recently maintained a certain upward rhythm, but upward momentum may be nearing a phase of exhaustion. Some indicators (such as RSI or Stochastic) may show signs of overbought conditions or deceleration divergence.

In terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned at elevated levels, potentially signaling short-term overbought pressure. The Average Directional Index (ADX) remains at relatively high levels, indicating a robust trend but also cautioning against a potential reversal due to trend exhaustion. If the MACD histogram begins to contract, this could serve as an early warning sign of trend deceleration or reversal.

Overall, the current trend remains bullish, but signs of weakening upward momentum have emerged. Attention should be paid to resistance levels and turning signals from key indicators.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 2.0230

Target Price: 1.9855

Stop Loss: 2.0330

Valid Until: October 16, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 2.0141, 2.0034, 1.9960

Resistance: 2.0247, 2.0284, 2.03.9

The USD/CAD currency pair held steady during European hours on Wednesday, hovering around 1.3920, following a modest rally in the previous session. The pair’s subdued movement comes as traders weigh a mixture of crosscurrents: weakening crude oil prices, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and growing uncertainty stemming from the US federal government shutdown.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD), historically sensitive to oil market dynamics given Canada’s role as the largest oil exporter to the United States, has struggled amid a renewed decline in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude. WTI was trading around $61.80 per barrel at the time of writing, extending its recent losing streak. Prices fell after OPEC+—comprising major oil producers including Russia—hinted at a larger-than-expected output increase for next month. This move raises concerns about global supply outpacing demand, further pressuring crude markets. Meanwhile, uncertainty over a potential US government shutdown has heightened fears of reduced economic activity and lower fuel consumption, adding another layer of bearish pressure on oil prices.

The US Dollar (USD) faces a contrasting set of influences. On one hand, the currency has been buoyed by safe-haven flows amid geopolitical and domestic fiscal uncertainty. On the other, data released earlier in the week hinted at softer employment conditions, strengthening market expectations of further Fed rate cuts in 2025. The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates nearly a 97% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate reduction in October and a 76% chance of an additional cut in December. Market participants are now closely eyeing the release of September’s US ADP Employment Change and ISM Manufacturing PMI data, which may be delayed or disrupted by the ongoing government shutdown.

The partial US government shutdown, triggered by Congress’s inability to pass the necessary funding bills, has already left approximately 750,000 federal employees furloughed. The Labor Department has warned that its statistical reporting—including the critical monthly jobs report—could be halted if the impasse continues. Such developments inject additional uncertainty into the USD, particularly at a time when traders are weighing the trajectory of US interest rates against broader economic signals.

Canada’s economic calendar also draws attention, with the S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and the Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations set for release later in the North American session. Both data points could provide fresh direction for the CAD, particularly if oil-linked growth projections or central bank sentiment signal divergence from current market expectations.

From a technical perspective, USD/CAD remains in a bullish trend despite the pair’s recent sideways movement. Intraday charts show the price benefiting from positive signals on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggesting the potential for continued upside momentum. The pair is trading above its 50-period exponential moving average (EMA50), which acts as dynamic support and reinforces the bullish bias.

Support for the pair is observed around 1.3890, a level that previously acted as a consolidation zone. A successful rebound from this level would confirm the ongoing upward trend, potentially opening the path toward resistance levels at 1.4000, followed by 1.4040—a key psychological and structural barrier—and 1.4070 on the extended longer-term chart.

BUY USDCAD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3930

STOP LOSS: 1.3860

TAKE PROFIT: 1.4000

Today, the U.S. federal government officially shut down after Congress failed to pass the fiscal year 2026 appropriations bill. This marks the first government shutdown since 2019, forcing approximately 900,000 federal employees to take unpaid leave while another 700,000 continue working without pay. Operations at certain government agencies, including the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), have been suspended, disrupting the normal functioning of public services.

The government shutdown has heightened market uncertainty about the U.S. economic outlook, particularly as delayed employment data releases have intensified investor concerns about an economic slowdown. Additionally, widespread market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in both October and December further diminish the dollar's appeal, driving capital flows into safe-haven assets like gold.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index fell to its lowest level in a week, making dollar-denominated gold more attractive to overseas investors. Strong demand for gold from central banks worldwide further bolstered the upward trend in gold prices.

In the 1D timeframe, gold's overall candlestick chart pattern exhibits a pronounced bullish trend, with the SMA system displaying a bullish alignment. This indicates strong continuity in the prevailing upward trend.

However, gold has now risen to the vicinity of the 3900.00 psychological level, where short-term upward pressure is gradually accumulating and bullish momentum may be weakening. Concurrently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that gold has entered overbought territory, suggesting that the risk of a near-term correction is intensifying.

For short-term trading, it is recommended to use the MA10 and MA20 in the 4H timeframe as support levels, focusing on buying on dips. It is not advisable to chase rallies.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3835.00

Target Price: 3990.00

Stop Loss: 3790.00

Valid Until: October 15, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 3870.32, 3792.99

Resistance: 3900.00, 4000.00

Silver extended its recent rally on Wednesday, with the precious metal holding more than 1% higher at around $47.15 per troy ounce in European trading, just shy of the intraday peak of $47.57 set during early Asian hours. The move underscores investors’ shifting appetite for the non-interest-bearing metal as U.S. macroeconomic data bolsters the case for Federal Reserve policy easing while political gridlock in Washington stokes demand for safe-haven assets.

The surge in silver comes as the U.S. labor market shows fresh signs of cooling. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released Tuesday revealed that while job vacancies in August inched up to 7.23 million from 7.21 million, the hiring rate fell to 3.2%, its lowest level since June 2024. Persistent weakness in hiring, even as layoffs remain historically low, has reinforced market expectations that the Fed will pivot more decisively toward rate cuts to cushion the economy.

Futures markets, as tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool, are now pricing in a staggering 97% probability of a rate cut at the October meeting and a 76% likelihood of an additional reduction in December. This dovish shift has weighed heavily on the U.S. dollar, with the Dollar Index (DXY) subdued around 97.80 at the time of writing. For silver—priced in dollars—this translates into a double tailwind: reduced opportunity cost of holding the metal and cheaper dollar-denominated pricing for foreign buyers.

Market focus now turns to upcoming U.S. data, including the ADP Employment Change and the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September. Softer-than-expected readings could further cement expectations of Fed easing and extend silver’s bullish momentum.

Adding to the mix is a growing sense of unease in Washington. The federal government faces a potential partial shutdown at 04:00 GMT on Wednesday, with roughly 750,000 federal workers at risk of furlough as Congress struggles to pass funding legislation. The Labor Department warned earlier this week that if a shutdown occurs, it will suspend the release of key economic data—including the all-important monthly non-farm payrolls report due Friday. For markets that rely on timely data to gauge Fed policy moves, such a blackout could amplify volatility and sustain demand for traditional safe-haven assets like silver.

From a technical perspective, silver remains firmly in a bullish trajectory. The metal has been trading in line with both primary and secondary upward trend lines, reflecting persistent buying interest. The latest upswing saw prices test the resistance zone near $47.50, a level now in focus as traders assess whether momentum is sufficient to push through to higher targets. Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continue to flash supportive signals, while silver’s position above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50) reinforces the bullish setup by providing dynamic support to the uptrend.

BUY SILVER

ENTRY PRICE: 47.75

STOP LOSS: 46.50

TAKE PROFIT: 50.00

Political risks and geopolitical tensions have jointly driven up market demand for safe-haven assets. With the U.S. government shutdown looming, Congress failed to pass a spending bill, while President Trump claimed that “a shutdown could bring benefits,” further intensifying political uncertainty. Additionally, the implementation of new tariff policies—including 10%-25% duties on wood and cabinets, alongside previously imposed tariffs on pharmaceuticals and furniture taking effect that day—further intensified market concerns over deteriorating trade conditions and inflationary pressures. On the geopolitical front, Russia warned that U.S. potential supply of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine could lead to a “significant escalation,” casting new shadows over the global security landscape and driving capital into gold as a safe-haven asset.

As the final quarter of 2025 begins, the gold market is bullish. With U.S. government funding set to expire at 04:00 GMT on Wednesday, Republicans and Democrats appear unlikely to strike a last-minute temporary deal. Gold buyers refuse to back down and are demonstrating strength. The last government shutdown lasted 35 days, from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019—occurring during U.S. President Donald Trump's first term. The immediate impact of a shutdown could be the delay of this Friday's monthly labor market report, which is crucial for the market's assessment of whether the Federal Reserve will proceed with two additional rate cuts this year. The FedWatch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group indicates that markets have fully priced in expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month. Persistent uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal and monetary policies is expected to undermine investor confidence in U.S. assets like the dollar, triggering a rush to buy traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. Meanwhile, the dollar has also been weighed down by mixed data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The report indicates that U.S. job openings rose modestly by 19,000 in August, while hiring declined, aligning with the labor market's weakening trend. Attention is now focused on the possibility of a U.S. government shutdown and its potential impact on overall market sentiment. If a shutdown occurs, Wednesday's private-sector employment data from ADP will become the market's focal point, as the official nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for release this Friday. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers may also influence sentiment surrounding gold prices.

In the 1H timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are converging, and the SMAs are flattening. Price is oscillating upwards along the EMA12. The MACD line and signal line show decreasing highs, indicating weakening bullish momentum and a potential bearish crossover, suggesting a possible pullback. The RSI is at 60, reflecting strong bullish sentiment. As long as the price remains above the EMA12, a test of 3,900 or even 4,000 is likely. In the 1D timeframe, the price has made a new high, but the corresponding RSI highs are decreasing, signaling a bearish divergence. The slopes of MACD line and signal line are decreasing, and the RSI is at 81, indicating overbought conditions and a high probability of a short-term correction. However, the overall upward trend remains intact, and it is recommended to go long at the lows.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3888

Target Price: 4100

Stop Loss: 3750

Support: 3800, 3765, 3550

Resistance: 3900, 3950, 4100

Ethereum spot ETFs have seen substantial capital inflows since Monday, totaling US$549 million. All nine U.S.-listed ETFs recorded net inflows, with Fidelity's FETH leading the pack at US$203 million, followed by BlackRock's ETHA at US$156 million.

To date, ETH ETFs have recorded cumulative net inflows of US$13.67 billion, with total net assets reaching US$27.54 billion. Institutional demand continues to play a significant role in Ethereum's upward trajectory, particularly during its surge to an all-time high of US$4,956 on August 24.

Meanwhile, following last week's surge in volatility, retail interest in XRP has stabilized at lower levels. According to CoinGlass data, open interest averaged US$7.58 billion on Tuesday, down from US$8.96 billion on September 19.

If the open interest index rises, it indicates traders are confident in XRP's ability to sustain its upward trend and are willing to increase long positions. Conversely, a decline in the open interest index suggests investors are losing confidence in the cross-border remittance token and its ecosystem, which could lead to continued price suppression.

Market data from the liquidity heatmap indicates that Ethereum may retest above US$4,500 before rebounding. A concentration of long positions has emerged within the corresponding US$4,150 price range. Consequently, while this indicator reveals significant accumulation of leveraged positions, it also suggests these positions will rise again once Ethereum stabilizes above the US$4,150 level.

After finding support around US$3,800, the price of Ethereum has regained the psychological level of US$4,000 this week.

After breaking through the critical neckline at US$4,231, Ethereum's price formed a head-and-shoulders bottom pattern in the 4H timeframe, signaling further upside potential. The target is now set on the key US$4,500 level, reinforced by the 50-day SMA below it.

The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic Oscillator have rebounded from oversold territory and are trending upward, indicating that bearish momentum is waning. A solid break above neutral levels could amplify bullish pressure.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 4248

Target Price: 4616

Stop Loss: 4000

Valid Until: October 16, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 4250, 4093, 4041

Resistance: 4404, 4500, 4566