EUR/USD Bulls Eye 1.19 as German Confidence Recovers, Dollar Under Pressure

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The euro advanced to a fresh multi-month high as a surprise rebound in German investor sentiment and expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve weighed on the dollar.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.18100

Entry Price

1.19000

1.17500

1.17401 +0.00007 +0.01%

27.6

Pips

Profit

1.17500

1.18376

Exit Price

1.18100

Entry Price

1.19000

The euro strengthened further against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, climbing to levels not seen since early July after a surprise improvement in German economic sentiment lifted confidence across European markets. The single currency briefly reached 1.1818 before easing back toward the 1.1800 area ahead of the opening of the U.S. session. The move builds on momentum seen in recent weeks, as the euro continues to recover from its late-summer weakness, which was driven by concerns over slowing eurozone growth and rising fiscal strains in France.

Data from the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) revealed that investor expectations for Germany’s economic outlook improved in September, defying consensus forecasts for another deterioration. While the assessment of current conditions slipped for the second consecutive month, the jump in forward-looking sentiment suggests that investors are positioning for stabilization in Europe’s largest economy. The broader eurozone sentiment index also showed a brighter reading after a steep decline in August, offering some relief to policymakers in Frankfurt who have struggled to instill confidence in the bloc’s uneven recovery.

The improvement in sentiment helped offset the negative headlines surrounding France’s debt load and ongoing fiscal debates within the European Union. For investors, the data provided a reason to step back into the euro at a time when the dollar is under pressure from shifting expectations about U.S. monetary policy.

The greenback has been sliding as markets prepare for the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday. Traders increasingly expect not just a rate cut, but also a dovish signal that could pave the way for further easing later this year. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the dollar against six major peers, slipped to its lowest levels in nearly two months. Meanwhile, Wall Street equities climbed to fresh record highs as the prospect of lower borrowing costs boosted risk appetite and overshadowed concerns about slowing growth.

Attention later in the day will shift to U.S. retail sales data for August. Economists expect consumption to have cooled, largely because of weaker demand for automobiles. Should the report confirm a slowdown, it would add further pressure on the Fed to act and likely keep the dollar on the back foot. On the other hand, a stronger outcome could temporarily arrest the dollar’s slide, although the broader bias remains tilted against the greenback.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the euro-dollar pair continues to display strong upward momentum. The rally pushed the exchange rate above the important resistance level of 1.1785, which had capped gains in recent weeks. This breakout is supported by price action remaining comfortably above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average, reinforcing the bullish structure. Trading has also followed an upward-sloping bias line, adding weight to the case for further gains. However, oscillators and relative strength indicators are beginning to show early signs of negative divergence, suggesting that while the uptrend remains intact, some moderation or short-term pullback cannot be ruled out.

The 1.1700 level remains a crucial floor from recent consolidation, and as long as the pair holds above it, the bullish view remains valid. A sustained rebound from that area would confirm ongoing upside momentum and keep the market focused on further advances. The next areas of interest on the upside are 1.1846, which represents immediate resistance, followed by the psychological barrier at 1.1900, where traders may begin to take profits. Should the momentum extend beyond that threshold, the longer-term target near 1.1933 comes into play.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.1810

STOP LOSS: 1.1750

TAKE PROFIT: 1.1900

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Central Bank

Commodity

Summary:

During Tuesday's European trading session, gold prices approached historic highs near US$3,700. Rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts continue to weigh on the dollar, benefiting the non-yielding asset. Ahead of this week's pivotal Fed policy announcement, extreme overbought conditions have failed to curb gold's ascent - a typical buyer's market.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3689.12

Entry Price

3850.00

3625.00

4344.04 +44.65 +1.04%

1608.8

Pips

Profit

3625.00

3850.09

Exit Price

3689.12

Entry Price

3850.00

Fundamentals

The dollar plunged as markets anticipated the Federal Reserve would adopt a dovish stance on Wednesday, propelling gold prices higher for a third consecutive day. The U.S. Dollar Index fell to a two-month low, supporting gold to reach a record high near US$3,700. However, gold is currently in overbought territory and may experience some near-term pullbacks.

We should expect heightened volatility around the time of the Fed statement release, particularly if market participants perceive that rate cuts will be accompanied by a hawkish statement. For instance, if the Fed fails to provide support in its guidance and projections, it could trigger a sharp decline in gold prices.

However, since Trump wants to see lower interest rates, investors should expect gold to continue its current upward trend over the next few months; it will then consolidate before rising again in 2026.

Moreover, the long-term bull market for gold appears unchanged, as demand continues to grow at an accelerated pace, particularly from central banks and ETFs.

Technical Analysis

Following a near-vertical rally, gold prices experienced a brief correction on Tuesday. Concerns among investors persist, as overbought signals suggest a potentially volatile upward trajectory. This has fueled speculation of profit-taking and selling near historical highs ahead of the Federal Reserve's announcement. Conversely, the dip-buying behavior indicates a typical buyer's market.

Immediate support levels are anticipated at the 20-day SMA of US$3,530 and the US$3,500 support level, if the prices breach the US$3,600-$3,590 range. Failure to hold these levels could lead to a further decline towards the 50-day SMA at US$3,453, coinciding with the upper boundary of the previous consolidation range.

On the upside, the bullish market dynamics may limit opportunities for late entrants, with buy-the-dip strategies expected to dominate the near-term rally. This could potentially target the US$3,700-$3,735 range, with further gains aiming for the ultimate target of US$3,850.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 36858

Target Price: 3850

Stop Loss: 3625

Valid Until: October 1, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 3674, 3656, 3613

Resistance: 3700, 3735, 3752

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Central Bank

Forex

Summary:

The UK's unemployment rate continues to decline, while wage growth remains robust, potentially leading the Bank of England to hold interest rates steady. In the 4H timeframe, the GBPUSD has broken out of a contracting triangle pattern, trading above 1.3600 and extending its bullish momentum.

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.36455

Entry Price

1.38500

1.34500

1.33836 +0.00129 +0.10%

195.5

Pips

Loss

1.34500

1.34499

Exit Price

1.36455

Entry Price

1.38500

Fundamentals

The GBPUSD experienced a modest pullback on Tuesday after breaching the 1.3600 level, yet it maintained a positive trajectory. Robust UK wage growth may prompt the Bank of England to hold steady on interest rates during Thursday's meeting.

The UK labor market data for August, released on Tuesday, revealed a decline of 8,000 jobs month-over-month, continuing the downward trend observed since the peak in Q3 2024. The claimant count increased by 17,400, falling short of the anticipated 20,300. Median monthly earnings saw a 6.6% year-over-year increase, surpassing the 6.0% recorded in July, indicating persistent wage pressures.

The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.7% for the three months ending in July, aligning with expectations. Average earnings excluding bonuses edged down from 5.0% to 4.8%, while average earnings including bonuses saw a slight uptick from 4.6% to 4.7%. Overall, the data suggests ongoing job losses, but sustained wage growth warrants a cautious approach to policy by the Bank of England.

Job Market Resilience Strengthens, with Wage Pressure Supporting the Pound's Continued Uptrend_1

Technical Analysis

Following a breach of 1.3600, the GBPUSD maintains its upward trajectory, though bulls must secure a daily close above 1.3600 to facilitate further gains. The subsequent significant resistance level is the July 4 high of 1.3682, followed by 1.3700. A break above the latter would target the July 1 high of 1.3788.

Conversely, if GBPUSD struggles at the 1.3600 level, a test of 1.3550 could ensue. Further weakness might see a challenge of the 20-day SMA at 1.3496.

From a broader trend perspective, the uptrend initiated from 1.3051 (2022 low) remains intact. The next intermediate target is the 61.8% retracement of 1.0351, from 1.2099 to 1.3433, with a final target at 1.4004. As long as the 55-day SMA (currently at 1.3151) holds, the outlook remains bullish, even amid significant pullbacks.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.3597

Target Price: 1.3850

Stop Loss: 1.3450

Valid Until: October 1, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 1.3590, 1.3523, 1.3483

Resistance: 1.3650, 1.3681, 1.3751

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Forex

Summary:

The latest UK employment data shows some softness in the labor market, but recent strong economic figures continue to support the British pound.

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

200.381

Entry Price

204.900

198.600

207.437 -0.886 -0.43%

2.0

Pips

Profit

198.600

200.401

Exit Price

200.381

Entry Price

204.900

Fundamentals

Released today, the UK labor market data indicates a slowdown in wage growth, a month-on-month decline in the number of people in work, and a rise in the unemployment rate to around 4.7%, with payroll numbers for the month also decreasing, signaling a cooling in employment momentum. Seemingly, the market could interpret such signs of labor market weakness as a reason for the Bank of England to adopt a more dovish policy path, which would put downward pressure on the British pound. However, deeper data also reveal that the UK's GDP still recorded moderate growth in Q2 (positive on a quarterly basis). Additionally, although wage levels have decreased, they remain above pre-pandemic trends. This reveals the Bank of England is not about to turn decisively dovish just yet, and there is still potential for its policy stance to "hold relatively high interest rates to combat inflation." In other words, while the employment weakness provides a short-term reason for a pullback, it does not necessarily invalidate the pound's long-term valuation. On the contrary, such data fluctuations often create better entry opportunities for traders willing to buy the pound with a preference for higher interest rate differentials and risk appetite.

Technical Analysis

Holding Firm Above 200.00 Is Just the Beginning_1

The daily chart shows that the closing price of GBP/JPY last Friday confirmed a firm breakout and hold above the 200.00 level. These key psychological and technical barriers are effectively breached, further opening up the upside potential for GBP/JPY.

At present, the short-term resistance for GBP/JPY lies in the 202.00-203.00 range, with stronger resistance seen between 205.00 and 208.00. The first key support zone to watch is around 199.00–199.60. Should the exchange rate break above 202.00 in the short term and hold above that level, it would technically confirm a breakout, likely triggering additional follow-up buying interest. Conversely, if the pair retraces to the 199.00–199.60 zone and holds steady there, it would present a lower-risk opportunity to buy the dips.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 200.30

Target price: 204.90

Stop loss: 198.60

Valid Until: September 30, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 200.00/199.00

Resistance: 202.00/203.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Forex

Technical Analysis

Economic

Summary:

On September 15th, 2025, the Finance Sector Union of Australia announced it had filed a complaint with the Fair Work Commission, urging urgent intervention regarding ANZ Group's recent plan to lay off 3,500 employees. However, the incident has had limited impact on the Australian dollar, as market attention shifts to the employment report due Thursday (employment is expected to rise by 21,000, while the unemployment rate is projected to increase by 4.2%).

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.66600

Entry Price

0.63000

0.67500

0.66474 -0.00046 -0.07%

39.4

Pips

Profit

0.63000

0.66206

Exit Price

0.66600

Entry Price

0.67500

Fundamentals

On September 15th, 2025, the Finance Sector Union of Australia announced it had filed a complaint with the Fair Work Commission, urging urgent intervention regarding ANZ Group's recent plan to lay off 3,500 employees. The union criticized the bank for severely inadequate consultation with affected staff, as well as failing to meet its legal obligation of proper communication. In a statement, the union accused ANZ, saying that "thousands of families are left in the dark while executives protect their bonuses." The union emphasized that the complaint was filed to secure fair treatment and job security for workers. The dispute stems from ANZ's major restructuring plan announced last week, in which the bank stated that the layoffs aimed to streamline operations and focus on core businesses. However, the bank has not yet responded directly to the union's allegations. On the same day, ANZ also agreed to pay a AU$240 million (approximately US$159.9 million) fine to settle multiple charges brought by corporate regulators, including "unreasonable" conduct in government bond trading and systemic failures such as continuing to charge deceased customers. This penalty marks the largest ever imposed on a single entity in Australia. ANZ is currently the smallest by market capitalization among Australia's "Big Four" banks. However, the layoffs had a limited impact on the Australian dollar, as market focus shifted to the employment report due Thursday (employment is expected to rise by 21,000, while the unemployment rate is projected to increase by 4.2%).

Currently, markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates 2 to 3 times in 2025, totaling 50-75 basis points. However, if the new leadership lineup is fully confirmed, this expectation could be revised upward. Interest rate futures markets have already begun reflecting this shift, with the probability of three rate cuts this year rising from 50% to 70%, while the likelihood of four cuts (100 basis points) has increased from 20% to 45%. For the U.S. dollar, an unexpectedly dovish policy stance would exert significant downward pressure. On one hand, if the Fed cuts rates more aggressively than the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and other major central banks, the U.S. dollar's interest rate advantage would narrow, potentially driving capital toward higher-yielding non-dollar markets. On the other hand, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) may end its recent strength and enter a medium-term depreciation phase, thereby boosting commodity prices and the performance of emerging market assets. This week, key focuses include whether the nomination of Stephen Miran will be approved and whether the FOMC meeting minutes contain phrases such as monitoring "downside risks" or providing "policy support." If these signals materialize, markets may price in a steeper rate-cutting path earlier, leading to a continued weakening trend for the dollar.

Technical Analysis

Based on the 1-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating lower volatility. Meanwhile, the moving averages are flattening with the price oscillating near the middle band. Previously, when the price reached a new high, the MACD line and the signal line formed a death cross, and the momentum histogram (bullish bars) gradually weakened, signaling a bullish divergence. With the RSI sitting at 55, the market sentiment remains neutral as traders are in a wait-and-see mode, while a potential breakout or reversal could occur at any time. Regarding the weekly chart, the price rose close to the 200-week EMA (at 0.667), a key technical resistance level, where the MACD showed a "kiss of the angels" (a bullish convergence pattern). Moreover, the RSI stays at 62, entering a strong bullish zone, while the lows are gradually rising, confirming an overall uptrend. However, historically, every time the price approaches the 200-week EMA, it has experienced a significant pullback. This time appears to be no exception, so it is recommended to sell at highs.

Long-Term Inflection Point！ AUD/USD Faces Key Resistance?_1

Long-Term Inflection Point！ AUD/USD Faces Key Resistance?_2

Trading Recommendations:

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.666

Target price: 0.63

Stop loss: 0.675

Support: 0.656/0.646/0.63

Resistance: 0.67/0.675/0.7

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Economic

Forex

Technical Analysis

Summary:

The combined impact of political uncertainty in France and widening fiscal deficits continues to unfold, but at the current pace, the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook and forward guidance remain the core variables determining the short-term direction of the dollar and euro exchange rates.

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.17950

Entry Price

1.14000

1.19000

1.17401 +0.00007 +0.01%

105.0

Pips

Loss

1.14000

1.19003

Exit Price

1.17950

Entry Price

1.19000

Fundamentals

Ahead of the release of Eurozone July seasonally adjusted industrial production data and Germany's September ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, the EURUSD rose. The European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish rhetoric supported the euro against other currencies. ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel stated on Tuesday that euro area interest rates are at a healthy level and added that upside inflation risks remain predominant. Schnabel indicated that economic growth could surpass potential output, with domestic demand offsetting the decline in exports. ECB policymaker Peter Kažimír noted on Monday that policy should not be adjusted due to a "slight deviation" from inflation targets, while warning of upside inflation risks. Kažimír further emphasized that interest rates have entered a neutral zone.

On September 15th, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved significant electoral gains in North Rhine-Westphalia, increasing its vote share to 14.5%, approximately tripling its support from five years prior, and securing its first-ever runoff mayoral candidacies in several industrial cities. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) maintained a leading position with 33.3% of the vote, while its federal coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), experienced a decline in support to 22.1%. The rise of the AfD reflects voter dissatisfaction with immigration policies and economic conditions. These results are viewed as the first critical test for Chancellor Merz's fragile governing coalition. The combined impact of political uncertainty in France and widening fiscal deficits continues to unfold, but at the current pace, the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook and forward guidance remain the core variables determining the short-term direction of the dollar and euro exchange rates.

The dollar is facing its most severe challenge in several months. A confluence of factors—including expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve, increasing political pressure from President Trump, and technical selling momentum—has collectively driven the dollar to multi-month lows. With a near-certain rate cut by the Federal Reserve, market attention has shifted to the magnitude of the easing and forward guidance on future policy measures. The short-term trajectory of the dollar may depend on whether the Fed can maintain its independence while balancing economic data against political influences, as well as upcoming economic indicators that could either reinforce or challenge the prevailing dovish stance.

Technical Analysis

The EURUSD in the 1D timeframe exhibits diminishing bullish MACD momentum bars, with successive lower highs, yet the price continues to ascend strongly along the middle and upper Bollinger Bands, which are expanding upward. The SMAs are diverging upwards, and the RSI is at 60, indicating a strong bullish trend. If the current upward push fails to break the 1.183 resistance or breaks above but quickly retraces, a significant correction is likely. In the 1W timeframe, the price is oscillating upward along the EMA12, but the slope is moderating. The RSI is at 67 with decreasing highs, and a MACD death cross has occurred at high levels. The MACD line and signal line are pulling back toward the zero-axis but remain distant, suggesting the correction is incomplete. A break below the EMA12 could lead to declines toward the Bollinger middle band or the EMA50, at 1.15 and 1.124 respectively. It is recommended to go short at the highs.

Markets Await Interest Rate Decision! Euro Rises Slowly Amid Crisis!_1

Markets Await Interest Rate Decision! Euro Rises Slowly Amid Crisis!_2

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.1795

Target Price: 1.14

Stop Loss: 1.19

Support: 1.145, 1.14, 1.13

Resistance: 1.189, 1.19, 1.2

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

The RSI currently stands at 46, showing neutral momentum, this leaves room for a minor downside push before a potential bullish reversal unfolds.

BUY EURGBP

EXP

EXPIRED

0.86300

Entry Price

0.86850

0.86150

0.87723 -0.00066 -0.08%

Pips

EXPIRED

0.86150

0.87328

Exit Price

0.86300

Entry Price

0.86850

The European Central Bank (ECB) has offered some support to the single currency by signaling that its rate-cutting cycle is nearing its end. The ECB kept its key rates unchanged during the September policy meeting, holding the deposit rate steady at 2.00% while emphasizing that its current stance is “appropriately positioned.” ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel struck a notably hawkish tone on Monday, stressing that interest rates are in a “good place” and warning that upside risks to inflation remain dominant.

Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor speeches from ECB President Christine Lagarde and Executive Board member José Luis Escrivá, both scheduled for later on Monday, for further guidance on the central bank’s policy outlook.

Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings downgraded France’s sovereign credit rating on Friday by one notch from ‘AA-’ to ‘A+’ with a stable outlook. According to Fitch, the downgrade reflects “rising political division and polarization,” which heightens the risk of further delays in fiscal consolidation.

Fortunately, France’s fiscal challenges appear to be largely contained and have not spilled over into the broader Eurozone. While the spread between French bonds and German bunds has widened, the spreads of Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese bonds versus Germany show no signs of stress.

Schnabel reiterated on Monday that interest rates are in a “good place” and that upside inflation risks still dominate. She added that the impact of a stronger euro is likely to be limited while noting that Eurozone growth is expected to outperform its potential over the coming quarters. The combination of stable rates and Schnabel’s hawkish tilt reinforces the growing market view that the ECB’s easing phase is likely nearing its conclusion.

In the United Kingdom, a busy economic calendar will feature labor market data on Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, and the Bank of England (BoE) policy decision on Thursday. Inflation in the UK has struggled to ease, hovering near the 4% threshold, which could justify further tightening by the BoE.

However, concerns about slowing economic growth in the UK may prompt traders to increase bets on additional rate cuts later this year. Market pricing currently reflects roughly a 33% chance that the BoE could lower interest rates once more before year-end. A Bullish Impulse May Emerge From the Triangle´s Base_1

A Bullish Impulse May Emerge From the Triangle´s Base_1

Technical Analysis

EUR/GBP is currently trading within a triangle pattern, approaching its lower boundary. Historically, this lower area of the formation has provided bullish momentum, which could encourage buying interest around current levels. The 0.8632 zone has acted as a local support, making it a potential area for a rebound. Meanwhile, the 100- and 200-period moving averages are clustered around 0.8655 and 0.8656 on the 4-hour chart. The close proximity of these key averages suggests that EUR/GBP is consolidating within a tight range, which could allow for a continuation of range-bound movement before any breakout.

The RSI currently stands at 46, showing neutral momentum. This leaves room for a minor downside push before a potential bullish reversal unfolds. However, a breakdown below the lower trendline would invalidate the bullish setup, opening the door to a deeper corrective decline.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.8630

Target price: 0.8685

Stop loss: 0.8615

Validity: Sep 26, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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EUR/USD Bulls Eye 1.19 as German Confidence Recovers, Dollar Under Pressure

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TRADE RECOMMENDATION

A Typical Buyer's Market

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Risk Disclosure

Recent Searches

Top Searches

Markets

News

Analysis

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24/7

Economic Calendar

Education

Data

EUR/USD Bulls Eye 1.19 as German Confidence Recovers, Dollar Under Pressure

Technical Analysis

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

A Typical Buyer's Market

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Job Market Resilience Strengthens, with Wage Pressure Supporting the Pound's Continued Uptrend

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Holding Firm Above 200.00 Is Just the Beginning

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Long-Term Inflection Point！ AUD/USD Faces Key Resistance?​

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Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations:

Markets Await Interest Rate Decision! Euro Rises Slowly Amid Crisis!

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

A Bullish Impulse May Emerge From the Triangle´s Base

Technical Analysis

Risk Disclosure

Long-Term Inflection Point！ AUD/USD Faces Key Resistance?