Euro Strengthens Against Swiss Franc Despite Weak Retail Sales

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

EUR/CHF extended its rebound for a second day on Thursday, with the cross trading near 0.9380 as softer Swiss inflation data and weaker Eurozone retail sales shifted investor expectations.

BUY EURCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.93799

Entry Price

0.94200

0.93500

0.93437 -0.00005 -0.01%

29.9

Pips

Loss

0.93500

0.93420

Exit Price

0.93799

Entry Price

0.94200

The EUR/CHF pair is attracting renewed buying interest for the second straight session on Thursday, edging higher toward 0.9381 during the European trading hours. The move comes as traders recalibrate expectations for both the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the European Central Bank (ECB) following a batch of macroeconomic releases that highlighted the region’s contrasting dynamics—muted inflation in Switzerland and weakening consumer demand in the Eurozone.

Switzerland’s August Consumer Price Index (CPI) provided little relief for policymakers hoping to see a pickup in domestic price pressures. Annual inflation held at 0.2%, in line with market expectations, but still well below the SNB’s target range. On a monthly basis, prices unexpectedly slipped 0.1%, undershooting the flat reading anticipated by economists. The data once again underscored the disinflationary backdrop the SNB has struggled against for much of the year, despite efforts to stabilize growth by cutting its policy rate to zero back in June.

The persistence of weak inflation suggests that the SNB may be forced to maintain an accommodative stance for longer. While Switzerland’s unemployment rate remained steady at 2.9% in August—a sign of labor market resilience—falling price pressures could still erode household spending power and corporate pricing ability, leaving policymakers with limited room to normalize rates in the near term.

Across the border, the Eurozone offered its own mixed picture. Retail Sales for July contracted 0.5% on a monthly basis, sharper than the 0.2% decline expected and reversing the 0.6% increase recorded in June. On an annualized basis, sales growth slowed to 2.2%, falling short of the 2.4% consensus and marking a sharp deceleration from June’s 3.5% increase. The breakdown was equally sobering: food and fuel sales declined, while non-food categories delivered only marginal gains.

The weak consumption figures are particularly concerning as they point to waning household demand just as inflation in the bloc ticked higher. Eurozone headline inflation edged up to 2.1% in August, with core inflation holding firm at 2.3%. This leaves the ECB in a delicate position. On one hand, inflationary pressures remain above target, keeping the case for policy caution intact. On the other, softer consumption highlights risks to growth momentum, suggesting that the ECB may be forced into a patient “wait-and-see” approach rather than any hawkish pivot.

Looking ahead, attention turns to Friday’s Eurozone employment and GDP figures. Economists expect second-quarter employment to edge higher by 0.1% from the previous quarter and 0.7% year-on-year, while GDP is seen growing at a modest 0.1% quarterly pace and 1.4% annually. Any disappointment could exacerbate concerns about the bloc’s underlying growth trajectory, further complicating the ECB’s policy path.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, EUR/CHF has staged a meaningful rebound after failing to establish a new lower low. The pair recently broke above a near-term resistance line, shifting momentum in favor of the bulls. The cross is currently testing support near the 0.9380 level—a zone that has attracted dip buyers this week.

Momentum indicators also support the bullish bias. The 7-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signaling oversold conditions, suggesting that the downside may be exhausted for now. If buying interest persists, the pair could extend its recovery toward the 0.9420 area, where the next resistance level is seen. A sustained break above this threshold could open the door to a more pronounced bullish correction, especially if incoming Eurozone data surprises to the upside or if SNB officials strike a dovish tone in upcoming communications.

TRADE RECOMMMENDATION

BUY EURCHF

ENTRY PRICE: 0.9380

STOP LOSS: 0.9350

TAKE PROFIT: 0.9420

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Forex

Economic

Technical Analysis

Summary:

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stated on Monday that he had a long and productive conversation with U.S. President Donald Trump, discussing issues including trade. The two nations have been locked in a trade war since the beginning of this year.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.38100

Entry Price

1.39300

1.37000

1.37639 -0.00061 -0.04%

14.5

Pips

Profit

1.37000

1.38245

Exit Price

1.38100

Entry Price

1.39300

Fundamentals

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney noted on Monday that he engaged in an extended and constructive dialogue with U.S. President Donald Trump, addressing topics such as trade. Since the start of the year, the two countries have been embroiled in an ongoing trade conflict. The USDCAD pair saw a slight uptick on Wednesday, with markets closely watching the Canadian employment data due out on Friday and signs of easing tensions between Canada and the U.S. Senior foreign exchange market analyst Nick Rees commented that Tuesday's bond market volatility helped stabilize the USDCAD within a higher range. Still, attention remains on Friday's data to determine whether this trend will persist. Nick believes the next round of labor market figures will be crucial for both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, and they could significantly impact the trajectory of the USDCAD. Canada is set to release its August jobs report on Friday, with expectations for 10,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate rising from 6.9% in July to 7%. Based on last Friday's data, Canada's economy contracted more than expected in the second quarter, leading investors to price in a 60% probability of a Bank of Canada rate cut at its September 17th policy meeting. The central bank has kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.75% since March.

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman filed a lawsuit against Trump to block his attempt to remove her. Trump accused Bowman of falsely reporting property information on a mortgage application, alleging fraud. Bowman argued that her property details were disclosed during her 2022 appointment review and that the president lacks the authority to dismiss a Fed governor. A hearing was held in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, where the Trump administration claimed the removal falls under presidential power and is not subject to judicial review. Besides, Trump has repeatedly criticized Fed policies: after three rate cuts in 2024, the central bank has maintained rates to counter inflation risks stemming from trade policies. Markets expect a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed on September 16th–17th. The U.S. dollar faces pressure due to concerns over the potential reversal of Trump's tariff policies and threats to the Fed's independence.

Technical Analysis

According to the daily chart, USDCAD is trading above the Bollinger Middle Band, with the MACD line and the signal line returning near the zero axis. The RSI stands at 53, in neutral territory, while the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and moving averages are flattening. These indicate a wait-and-see mode of the market with potential for a breakout at any time. Overall, the uptrend is not over, and there is a high likelihood of further upside toward the EMA200 or previous highs around 1.386 and 1.392, respectively. In the 4H chart, the pair found strong support at the Bollinger Lower Band before rebounding sharply to the Bollinger Upper Band. At present, the Bollinger Bands are tightening upward, and moving averages are diverging higher, signaling short-term bullish momentum. In addition, the RSI is at 60 with lows gradually rising, indicating strong bullish sentiment. MACD lines are running above the zero axis and have formed an "angel's kiss" pattern, suggesting potential further upside. Immediate resistance is seen near the previous high at 1.385. Therefore, buying at lows is recommended.

A Turning Point Emerges: Is A Meteoric Rise for USDCAD Imminent?_1

A Turning Point Emerges: Is A Meteoric Rise for USDCAD Imminent?_2

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.381

Target price: 1.393

Stop loss: 1.37

Support: 1.378/1.37/1.357

Resistance: 1.393/1.4/1.401

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Economic

Forex

Technical Analysis

Summary:

SELL XAGUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

40.860

Entry Price

39.800

41.500

63.293 +1.366 +2.21%

17.3

Pips

Loss

39.800

41.033

Exit Price

40.860

Entry Price

41.500

Fundamentals

The current rally is driven by a dual resonance of interest rates and the U.S. dollar. On one hand, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates in the second half of this year, with nearly a 92% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction in the federal funds rate at the September meeting. This outlook pushes down the risk-free yield curve, making non-interest-bearing assets, like silver, more attractive. On the other hand, the weakness in the U.S. dollar provides passive support for dollar-denominated precious metals. Moreover, the uncertainty at the policy level is also growing. Debates over the independence of the Federal Reserve intensify, with public calls from the White House for lower interest rates and remarks regarding the potential departure of FOMC member Lisa Cook. These developments amplify speculation about future monetary policy paths. Meanwhile, trade uncertainties, recurring geopolitical tensions, and continued inflows into gold and silver ETFs are all driving up demand for precious metals as defensive portfolio assets.

The U.S. Treasury market becomes increasingly sensitive to legal and political developments. The yield on the 30-year bond briefly breached 5% on Tuesday before retreating to 4.936% on Wednesday, reacting to a federal appeals court ruling that deemed most of former President Trump's import tariffs illegal. This ruling opens the door to billions in potential refunds and introduces new fiscal uncertainty. The U.S. dollar has fallen over 9% year-to-date and continues to weaken amid escalating political and trade tensions. For silver, a weaker dollar enhances its appeal to foreign buyers and further supports price gains.

Technical Analysis

Based on the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are expanding upward, with moving averages trending higher. The price is moving strongly along the Bollinger Upper Band, and the MACD remains in a golden cross without signs of weakening. The RSI stands at 69, indicating strong bullish sentiment. The next resistance level is the psychological barrier of 50. It's worth noting that after breaking out of the triangular consolidation, silver did not retest the upper edge of the triangle. If a pullback occurs, traders should watch whether the upper edge of the triangle holds. If it doesn't break, the uptrend may continue; otherwise, silver could return to the consolidation range. Regarding the 15-minute chart, the price briefly dipped below the Bollinger Lower Band before quickly rebounding to the Bollinger Middle Band. Holding above the Bollinger Middle Band or the 50-period EMA will boost the likelihood of another push toward 41 or even 50. However, failure to hold could lead to a decline toward the Bollinger Lower Band and previous lows around 40.5 and 40.1. Therefore, it is better to sell for now and buy later.

Silver Breaks Through Key Level of 40! Next Target 50?_1

Silver Breaks Through Key Level of 40! Next Target 50?_2

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 40.86

Target price: 39.8

Stop loss: 41.5

Support: 40.5/40/39.7

Resistance: 41.5/45/50

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

Price action has carved out a triangular formation, with the pair recently rejecting the upper boundary of this pattern.

SELL USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.80407

Entry Price

0.79800

0.81000

0.79617 +0.00035 +0.04%

39.7

Pips

Profit

0.79800

0.80010

Exit Price

0.80407

Entry Price

0.81000

In Switzerland, investors are awaiting the release of August’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Thursday. The report is expected to show a steady 0.2% year-on-year increase in inflation, while on a monthly basis, price growth is projected to have remained unchanged once again. With inflation still subdued, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may consider the possibility of pushing interest rates further into negative territory at this month’s policy meeting in an effort to stimulate price growth.

At the same time, the Swiss franc continues to draw support from its safe-haven appeal, underpinned by ongoing trade tensions and political uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s independence. These factors have helped sustain demand for the franc, even as domestic inflation pressures remain muted.

Across the Atlantic, fresh data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that job openings stood at 7.18 million on the last business day of July, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This was down from June’s revised figure of 7.35 million (previously 7.43 million) and below market expectations of 7.4 million. Importantly, it marked the lowest level of job openings since September 2024, highlighting signs of a gradual cooling in the labor market.

Further concerns over the U.S. economy came from the Census Bureau’s report on Factory Orders, which declined 1.3% month-over-month in July. Although slightly better than the anticipated 1.4% drop, the data underscored ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector.

Meanwhile, political and monetary discussions remain in focus. Stephen Miran, nominated by President Donald Trump to the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, vowed that if confirmed, he would safeguard the Fed’s political independence. However, during his testimony, he drew attention for mischaracterizing the Fed’s mandate, claiming its primary role was to prevent depressions and inflation, rather than adhering to its dual mandate of ensuring price stability and supporting employment.

Elsewhere, Fed officials delivered mixed signals. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic adopted a slightly hawkish tone, emphasizing price stability while acknowledging that labor market conditions are cooling. Bostic added that he only anticipates a single 25-basis-point rate cut this year. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem also maintained a hawkish stance, insisting that the restrictive policy stance remains appropriate. In contrast, Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his push for rate cuts at the September meeting, highlighting the ongoing divergence within the Fed. Resistance Rejection Points to Extended Bearish Momentum_1

Resistance Rejection Points to Extended Bearish Momentum_1

Technical Analysis

USDCHF remains entrenched in a bearish trend on the 4-hour chart, a move that began on August 1st when the pair topped out at 0.8171. Since then, the market has failed to establish higher highs, reinforcing the downward bias. Price action has carved out a triangular formation, with the pair recently rejecting the upper boundary of this pattern. Adding to the downside pressure, USDCHF is trading just below the 100- and 200-period moving averages, positioned at 0.8046 and 0.8042, both of which have acted as resistance. If this setup holds, a move toward the lower end of the triangle near 0.7980 could unfold.

The RSI currently stands at 59, slightly above neutral but comfortably below overbought levels. Notably, the indicator is showing a mild bearish divergence compared to previous price peaks at similar levels, suggesting that momentum may be weakening. Should the pair fail to break decisively above the triangular resistance, a corrective move lower from the current region appears increasingly likely.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.8041

Target price: 0.7980

Stop loss: 0.8100

Validity: Sep 12, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

This latest rejection raises the prospect of renewed bearish momentum, as the pair appears to be consolidating within a range between 145.86 and 148.80.

SELL USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

148.059

Entry Price

146.600

149.200

155.077 -0.737 -0.47%

79.3

Pips

Profit

146.600

147.266

Exit Price

148.059

Entry Price

149.200

The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that job openings stood at 7.18 million on the final business day of July. This figure came in below both the previous month’s revised reading of 7.35 million (down from 7.43 million) and market expectations of 7.4 million. More importantly, it marked the lowest level of job openings reported since September 2024, highlighting a gradual cooling in labor demand.

Adding to the cautious sentiment, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed that Factory Orders fell by 1.3% month-over-month in July. While slightly better than the consensus forecast of a 1.4% decline, the release reinforced concerns over persistent weakness within the manufacturing sector.

Meanwhile, Stephen Miran, nominated by President Donald Trump to fill a vacant seat on the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, pledged that if confirmed, he would maintain the Fed’s political independence. Miran emphasized that his policy stance would be based strictly on “his analysis,” although his past publications have occasionally raised questions. Interestingly, he also mischaracterized the Fed’s mandate during his testimony, suggesting its “main job” was to prevent depressions and inflation, despite the institution’s dual mandate to ensure price stability and support maximum employment.

Elsewhere, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic both leaned slightly hawkish in recent remarks, prioritizing price stability. However, they acknowledged signs of a softening labor market, with Bostic noting that he expects only one 25-basis-point rate cut this year. Earlier, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem also stressed that the Fed remains firmly focused on its mandate, pointing out that the current restrictive stance is appropriate. In contrast, Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his support for easing rates at the September meeting, keeping the debate among policymakers alive.

Bond markets reflected this cautious backdrop. U.S. Treasury yields extended their decline, with the 10-year note slipping more than five basis points to 4.211%. Real yields, which adjust for inflation expectations, also dropped by around 5.5 basis points to 1.803%.

On the other hand, Japanese government bonds (JGBs) saw significant selling, with 30-year yields climbing to historic highs near 3.29% amid investor concerns over government debt sustainability. While the turbulence in global bond markets has eased somewhat since Tuesday, elevated yields remain a headwind for the Japanese yen and a pressing concern for the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Similar moves earlier this year prompted the central bank to step aside and pause its tightening cycle. Reports indicate that BoJ Governor Ueda met with Prime Minister Ishiba, though post-meeting comments provided little clarity on policy intentions. Bearish Momentum Could Resume From Resistance_1

Bearish Momentum Could Resume From Resistance_1

Technical Analysis

USDJPY faced rejection after testing resistance at 148.81, a level that has repeatedly triggered downside moves in recent sessions. This latest rejection raises the prospect of renewed bearish momentum, as the pair appears to be consolidating within a range between 145.86 and 148.80. If this pattern persists, a fresh downswing may be underway. The 100- and 200-period moving averages, currently aligned near 147.54 and 147.69, sit just below spot levels; a decisive close beneath these supports could accelerate the decline toward 146.60.

At the same time, the RSI recently touched 72 as USDJPY tested resistance, signaling overbought conditions that increase the likelihood of a corrective pullback. On the flip side, a sustained breakout above the 148.81 barrier could shift sentiment back in favor of the bulls, paving the way for another test of the psychological 150.00 level.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 148.08

Target price: 146.60

Stop loss: 149.20

Validity: Sep 12, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Bond

Forex

Summary:

The GBPUSD depreciated by 1.52% on Wednesday, amid a surge in the UK 30-year government bond yield to 5.697%, reaching its highest level since May 1998, driven by fiscal concerns related to the autumn budget.

SELL GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.34474

Entry Price

1.29930

1.36000

1.33661 -0.00046 -0.03%

152.6

Pips

Loss

1.29930

1.36000

Exit Price

1.34474

Entry Price

1.36000

Fundamentals

The GBPUSD experienced a sharp decline on Wednesday, dropping as much as 1.52% intraday and erasing all gains since Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole on August 22. As of the daily rolling performance on Wednesday, the pound was the weakest among major currencies against the dollar.

UK long-term sovereign bond yields further widened their gains today, with the 30-year UK government bond yield surging by 6 basis points to 5.69%, the highest level since March 1998, serving as the immediate catalyst for the pound's depreciation.

The recent spike in the 30-year UK government bond yield is attributed to UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves' decision to increase borrowing in the previous fiscal year's budget, which expanded the UK fiscal deficit and heightened uncertainty regarding debt sustainability, thereby elevating the risk premium on long-term UK government bonds.

The UK government is scheduled to release the autumn fiscal statement on November 26, just as winter approaches. A 12-week anticipation period may offer limited benefits to the British pound, given the significant uncertainties surrounding the final content of the announcement.

The current state of the UK gilt bond market bears resemblance to the 2022 gilt crisis, which was triggered by former Prime Minister Liz Truss's "mini-budget." This fiscal policy focused on expansive measures, causing a sharp surge in 30-year UK gilt yields and precipitating a sell-off of the British pound.

UK Gilt Yields Soar as Pound Recalls 2022 Crisis_1

Technical Analysis

The intraday trend of the GBPUSD remains predominantly bearish. The corrective phase initiated at 1.3787 continues, with renewed downward momentum. A further decline could see the pair retreat to the 1.3140 support level. However, the downside is likely constrained by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.2099–1.3787 move at approximately 1.3142. Currently, as long as the resistance at 1.3459 holds, any rebound is expected to be modest, with downside risks remaining intact.

Additionally, the asset is trading below its 20-day and 50-day SMAs. The 4H Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not yet reversed from oversold territory, indicating that the short-term bearish momentum may persist in this phase.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.3480

Target Price: 1.2993

Stop Loss: 1.3600

Valid Until: September 18, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 1.3335, 1.3255, 1.3142

Resistance: 1.3450, 1.3534, 1.3548

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Economic

Summary:

Canada's economy contracted in Q2, with exports severely impacted by U.S. tariffs. The USDCAD appreciated for the second consecutive trading day, trading around 1.3800 during Tuesday's European session. Technical analysis of the 1D chart indicates a bearish outlook for this asset.

SELL USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.37879

Entry Price

1.34690

1.39300

1.37639 -0.00061 -0.04%

39.1

Pips

Profit

1.34690

1.37488

Exit Price

1.37879

Entry Price

1.39300

Fundamentals

The USDCAD traded near 1.3800 on Wednesday, rising approximately 0.53% for the day, reaching a four-day high of 1.3814 intraday. Canada's economy contracted for the first time in nearly two years, with a significant decline in exports and business investment due to the impact of the trade war with the U.S., leading to a depreciation of the Canadian dollar.

Data released by Statistics Canada on Friday indicated that Q2 GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 1.6%, marking the largest decline since the COVID-19 pandemic and the first contraction in nearly two years. While the figures aligned broadly with the Bank of Canada's forecasts, they underperformed economists' expectations of a 0.7% decline.

Exacerbated by U.S. tariffs impacting exports, Canada's exports declined by 27% year-over-year, completely reversing the temporary growth in trade activity seen in Q1—when exporters attempted to accelerate shipments ahead of the full implementation of Trump's tariff measures. Imports decreased by 5.1%. After a modest 1.1% growth in business investment in Q1, the sector contracted by 10.1% in the current quarter, highlighting the increasingly pessimistic outlook among Canadian firms amid ongoing U.S. tariff policies and policy uncertainties.

Canada's Economy Contracts in Q2, Casting Recession Shadow_1

Technical Analysis

The intraday trend of the USDCAD remains neutral. On the upside, a sustained break above the 1.3813 resistance level would maintain the short-term bullish momentum, as the rebound from 1.3538 is ongoing. The intraday outlook is expected to turn bullish again, with a potential retest of 1.3923.

On the downside, a decisive break below 1.3720 would indicate that the corrective pattern initiated from 1.3538 has completed at 1.3923. The intraday trend would then shift to bearish, with an initial test of the 1.3574 support level.

Technical analysis of the 1D chart shows the asset consolidating within a rectangular pattern, suggesting a sideways phase. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly below the 50 level, indicating a bearish bias in the near term.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.3840

Target Price: 1.3469

Stop Loss: 1.3930

Valid Until: September 18, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 1.3763, 1.3728, 1.3707

Resistance: 1.3816, 1.3857, 1.3879

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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