The macro backdrop remains structurally supportive for GBP/JPY, even though both sides of the cross have their own issues. On the sterling side, the Bank of England kept Bank Rate at 4% at its 5 November meeting, with a tight 5–4 vote and a minority already pushing for a 25 bp cut to 3.75%. The November Monetary Policy Report explicitly notes that CPI inflation has “peaked” and that progress on disinflation is underway, but it also emphasizes that policy is still restrictive and that the path of future cuts will be gradual and data-dependent. Markets now price a high probability of a first cut in December, yet rate differentials remain firmly in the pound’s favour versus the near-zero world that the yen only recently left.

On the yen side, the BoJ is holding its policy rate at 0.5% while telegraphing the possibility of a further hike to 0.75% in the coming meetings, but the signalling has not been strong enough to reverse the broader yen downtrend. Recent commentary from Japanese officials has focused more on warnings of FX intervention than on a decisive monetary tightening path, and external analysts still expect only very small, cautious hikes into 2026.

In that configuration, GBP/JPY is free to trade as a classic carry and risk-sensitivity pair: a relatively high-yield pound against a still-low-yield yen. Spot around 205.3–205.7 today, with a 52-week range of roughly 184–207 and recent intraday ranges between 204.85 and 205.91, confirms that we are sitting very near the top of the yearly envelope rather than in a neutral mid-range.

Sentiment is cautiously risk-seeking rather than fearful, which is exactly the regime where GBP/JPY tends to perform well. The US Dollar Index is oscillating just either side of 100, a level that reflects neither an aggressive global dash into USD nor a collapse in dollar demand. At the same time, the VIX has eased back toward the low-20s, with the latest readings around 20–21 after last week’s spike, signalling that equity volatility is elevated relative to the summer but no longer flashing systemic stress.

In this environment, traders are willing to hold carry trades such as GBP/JPY as long as the macro narrative remains: BoE still restrictive, BoJ still ultra-gradual, and global growth not falling off a cliff. Recent sell-side and broker commentary has repeatedly highlighted yen weakness as the dominant theme in FX, with GBP/JPY setting or approaching yearly highs above 206 and analysts openly discussing scenarios toward the 207–210 area if the yen remains under pressure.

At the same time, there is a realistic ceiling: Japan’s Ministry of Finance has already escalated its verbal warnings about intervention, and BoJ watchers are debating whether the next rate hike comes in December or in early 2026.

That means the market is happy to buy dips but also very aware that a surprise BoJ move or real intervention headline could trigger an air-pocket lower. The current sentiment, therefore, is not “buy at any level” but “lean long as long as the intraday structure respects support and policymakers do not dramatically change tone.”

On the M15 chart, GBP/JPY is behaving like a classic late-trend grind with controlled pullbacks. Intraday feeds show today’s range clustered between about 204.85 and 205.9, with real-time quotes near 205.3–205.7 and the 205.0 level acting as a psychological pivot.

With Bollinger Bands set to 20,0,2, price is generally holding above the mid-line rather than hugging the lower band, and short-lived dips toward the 20-period moving average in the low-205 area are being bought. That pattern repeated rebounds from the mid-line after testing the lower half of the band tends to characterise an ongoing up-swing that is consolidating before another attempt at the upper band, which currently aligns with the intraday highs just under 206.

From an Ichimoku perspective with 9,26,52 parameters, price is rotating either inside the upper part of the M15 cloud or just above it; the top of the Kumo roughly coincides with the 205.0–205.1 zone that has already acted as support today. Tenkan-sen is either flat or slightly above Kijun-sen on rebounds, signalling that short-term momentum has not yet flipped bearish, and the forward cloud maintains a mild upward tilt, which is consistent with a trend that is pausing rather than reversing.

Stochastic (5,3,3) on M15 has recently cycled down from overbought levels above 80 and is now turning higher again from the mid-range 40–50 band on shallow dips. That configuration a mid-range %K re-cross above %D while price holds over the Kumo top is typically the “reset” you want to see if you are planning to enter in the direction of the prevailing trend rather than chase the extreme. Putting these pieces together, the most logical technical stance is to buy pullbacks into the 205.0–205.1 support cluster, with a protective stop tucked below today’s structural low and the lower edge of the cloud, and a target aimed back toward the recent highs near 206.8, which line up with the yearly peak region discussed in external technical forecasts.

Entry: 205.500

TP: 206.80

SL: 204.30

The macro mix leans mildly against the Aussie despite a “higher for longer” RBA. Official data show AUD/USD trading near 0.6453–0.6458 on 25/11, extending a slow decline from the mid-0.65s over the past week.

The RBA kept the cash rate unchanged at 3.60% at its 5 November meeting and its Statement on Monetary Policy stressed that inflation is likely to stay somewhat higher than previously thought, implying that cuts will be cautious and data-dependent.

That stance is fundamentally AUD-supportive in isolation, but it is being offset by global drivers. The US Dollar Index is still orbiting the 100.0 region, with recent prints around 100.0–100.2, signalling that the Fed’s late-October cut has not triggered a sustained dollar down-trend. At the same time, broader narratives around a patchy Chinese recovery and softer Chinese demand for Australian commodities continue to cap Aussie upside and keep the currency trading near the lower half of its multi-month range.

When you put these elements together, you get a currency that is not collapsing but is struggling to rally against a dollar that still offers yield and safe-haven appeal, which justifies a tactical bearish bias in AUD/USD on intraday timeframes.

The sentiment picture around the Aussie is fragile rather than outright panicked. Recent reports describe AUD “blowing hot and cold” with shifts in global risk appetite, trading inside a well-defined multi-month range where risk-off days quickly push it back below 0.6500.

Yesterday, AUD/USD even dipped below 0.6450 as China–Japan tensions around Taiwan flared, underlining how quickly geopolitical headlines can translate into AUD selling when the market is already nervous about China. At the same time, the RBA minutes and local labour data have reinforced the idea that Australian rates will probably stay relatively high into 2026, which prevents a one-way capitulation and encourages traders to fade extremes rather than chase breakouts.

On the dollar side, DXY holding a tight 99.9–100.2 band keeps the greenback “firm but not aggressive”: strong enough to lean on high-beta FX like AUD, but not so strong that we see panic short-covering.

In that environment, discretionary accounts often choose relative trades where the macro story is asymmetric at the margin: an Aussie that depends heavily on a still-wobbly China versus a dollar that remains underpinned by yield and safe-haven demand.

The 15-minute structure aligns well with a sell-the-rally plan. Intraday data for 25/11 show a daily high near 0.6470 and a low near 0.6445, with spot currently sitting closer to the middle of that range.

On Bollinger Bands (20,0,2), price has been trading below or around the mid-line rather than hugging the upper band, and short bounces toward the 20-period moving average have repeatedly stalled near the 0.6465–0.6470 pocket.

That pattern of failing at the mid-line after lower-band tests is typical of a controlled down-swing where sellers are still in charge but are being selective about entry levels. The Ichimoku setup with parameters 9,26,52 shows AUD/USD either inside or just under the M15 Kumo, with the cloud sloping gently downward and the top of the cloud clustering near the same 0.6465–0.6470 zone.

Tenkan-sen is at or slightly below Kijun-sen, which tells you that momentum remains tilted lower even when price briefly pokes into the cloud. In practice, this turns the M15 Kumo into a dynamic resistance band that overlaps with the Bollinger mid-line, creating a clear technical “ceiling” for intraday rallies. Stochastic (5,3,3) has already cycled down from overbought territory after a modest bounce and is now turning lower again from somewhere around the 60–50 area, which is exactly the kind of mid-range roll-over you want to see when planning a fresh short: it signals that upside momentum has faded before price could break above the cloud.

As long as price continues to respect the 0.6465–0.6470 cap and M15 candles close back below the cloud top, the path of least resistance remains toward another probe of the recent lows around 0.6445 and potentially into the 0.6400–0.6420 congestion from earlier in the month.

Entry: 0.6460

TP: 0.6400

SL: 0.6490

Gold prices rose this week as the market continued to adjust expectations in anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Meanwhile, a significant decline in the 10-year Treasury yield also provided some support for precious metal prices. Although the market widely expects gold to hit new highs next year rather than this year, prices are still likely to continue climbing in the near term.

Recent remarks by Federal Reserve officials indicate that the balance within the Fed has clearly shifted toward the dovish camp.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly explicitly voiced support for cutting interest rates at next month's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. She told The Wall Street Journal that the Federal Reserve now faces greater risks from a sudden deterioration in the labor market than from inflation flaring up again.

She stated that the job market is currently “extremely fragile,” with the risk of a sharp, ‘nonlinear’ downturn rising. If policymakers wait too long, their room for maneuver will shrink. Daly emphasized that she no longer believes the Federal Reserve can “preemptively” address labor market weakness, arguing that the damage from a sudden drop in hiring would be harder to control than curbing inflation.

Regarding inflation, Daly stated that the likelihood of a substantial acceleration in inflation appears limited, noting that tariff-related cost increases this year have been lower than anticipated.

Although this was not a formal vote, her comments, combined with John Williams' earlier shift in stance, confirmed that the center of the Fed's policy spectrum has shifted significantly toward easing. This has elevated market expectations for a December rate cut to around 80%.

From a technical perspective, the 10-year Treasury yield breaking below the 4.036% support level indicates that the previous corrective rally from 3.947% to 4.162% has concluded. This follows the yield reaching resistance at the descending channel originating from 4.629% (May's high). Further declines toward the 3.947% low are possible.

Gold's break above US$4,132 indicates that the pullback from US$4,244 has bottomed at US$3,997. The rebound from US$3,886, serving as the second wave of a broader corrective pattern since US$4,381, remains ongoing. Gold is expected to extend gains toward US$4,244 and beyond, with weakening yields providing support. However, strong resistance near the US$4,346 high is anticipated to cap upside, thereby hindering the third upward wave of this pattern.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price 4118

Target Price: 4346

Stop Loss: 4038

Valid Until: December 11, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 4109, 4098, 4087

Resistance: 4155, 4168, 4211

During the European session on Tuesday, the GBPUSD traded sideways above the 1.3100 level. Pound trading remained cautious ahead of UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves' budget announcement on Wednesday. Meanwhile, broad dollar weakness provided some support for the GBPUSD.

Recently, UK bondholders have been enjoying their best returns since the COVID-19 pandemic, but they are bracing for the government's upcoming tax and spending plans, which will determine whether bond investors succeed or fail this year.

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is expected to announce a series of measures to help achieve debt targets when she presents the budget on Wednesday. Her first budget speech last year triggered a sell-off, while the bond market still bears scars from the crash caused by former Prime Minister Truss's fiscal policies.

This represents a major risk event for the UK government bond market, valued at £1.7 trillion (US$2.2 trillion). Fund managers have now reduced their exposure ahead of November 26. The UK deficit remains a key focus for bond investors, and recent reports that Reeves will not raise income tax have reignited investor concerns.

The GBPUSD maintains a neutral-to-bullish bias for the day, with potential resistance near the 1.3150-1.3160 range. A break above this range could trigger fresh short covering, pushing the quote toward the psychologically significant 1.3200 level. Subsequent buying interest should help sustain the upward momentum, challenging the technically significant 200-day SMA near 1.3300.

On the downside, a break below 1.3008 could extend the decline from the 138.2% retracement level (1.2831) of the previous range between 1.3725 and 1.3787 down to 1.3140.

Overall, if bulls manage to break above 1.3247 decisively, it would indicate that the decline from 1.3787 may have completed its correction.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.3100

Target Price: 1.3375

Stop Loss: 1.2980

Valid Until: December 11, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 1.3097, 1.3038, 1.3011

Resistance: 1.3217, 1.3247, 1.3288

OPEC's latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) and the most recent OPEC+ communiqué have materially shifted sentiment. The MOMR revised the global supply–demand balance, highlighting that accelerating non-OPEC supply and elevated long-term inventory levels will continue to exert downward pressure on flat prices. While OPEC+ announced a temporary pause to scheduled barrel-for-barrel increases for select months, aggregate supply growth through 2025–26 remains ample, eroding residual bullish optionality at the margin.

More decisively, the IEA's latest assessment flags the risk of a larger global surplus in 2026, with supply additions outpacing the pace of demand recovery. This verdict undercuts the structural-tightness narrative that had underpinned long positioning. The confluence of these incremental supply-side negatives and the uncertain demand rebound sets the fundamental baseline.

Meanwhile, weekly EIA statistics show commercial crude stocks have failed to sustain a consistent draw amid refinery shoulder-season maintenance and lackluster demand. Seaborne and floating inventories are also trending higher. These "invisible barrels" prompt the market to meet bullish headlines with measured short-covering rather than fresh length. In short, stocks remain bloated and supply plentiful—near-term upside catalysts are scarce.

On the 4-hour chart, WTI is printing lower highs and lower lows inside a clear descending channel. After prolonged entanglement with the EMAs, price broke lower, reinforcing bearish momentum.

Immediate resistance is now US$59.00. A failure to reclaim this level on a closing basis keeps the downtrend intact. First support is US$57.35, an accelerated break below opens the way toward the next structural floor at US$56.00.

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 58.4

Target Price: 55.50

Stop Loss: 60.10

Valid Until: December 9, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 57.35/56.00

Resistance Levels: 59.00/60.00

In general, investors remain cautious ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Budget 2025 announcement on Wednesday. This budget has attracted significant attention because Reeves has repeatedly pledged over the past year to drive economic growth. Nevertheless, recent economic indicators show that the UK's recovery momentum is slowing. In addition, the economy performed strongly in early 2025, prompting the IMF to predict at one point that the UK would become the second-fastest-growing G7 economy. However, the third-quarter GDP growth plunged to just 0.1%. Aside from one-off factors such as production halts at Jaguar Land Rover due to cyberattacks, business surveys also indicate that concerns about further tax hikes could keep fourth-quarter growth hovering around 0.1%. Fiscal pressures are also notable. In the first seven months of this fiscal year, UK government borrowing reached £84 billion, the highest level for the same period since the pandemic, with day-to-day spending borrowing up 10% year-on-year. This poses a serious challenge to Reeves' goal of achieving a balanced budget by 2030. The labor market is similarly weak. Since the 2024 budget raised employer national insurance contributions and the minimum wage, businesses' willingness to hire has clearly declined. Employment fell by the largest two-month amount since late 2020 between September and October, while the unemployment rate rose to 5.0%. Although the Bank of England believes the impact of tax increases on the labor market has largely played out, real wage growth in Q3, adjusted for inflation, was only 0.5%, reflecting sluggish growth in purchasing power. Consumer confidence has also continued to weaken. Retail sales recorded their first month-on-month decline since May in October, and the consumer confidence index fell further in November. Retailers widely worry that the new budget may further suppress already fragile consumer sentiment. On inflation, although October's rate dropped from previous highs to 3.6%, it remains close to twice the BoE's 2% target. Cost pressures from earlier rises in employer taxes are still feeding through, creating persistent price pressures. Monetary policy outlook remains uncertain. The BoE has cut rates five times since July 2024, but its current 4% base rate is still double the ECB's level. Within the Monetary Policy Committee, there is disagreement over whether to cut again in December, while markets expect two to three more 25-basis-point cuts by the end of 2026.

Despite recent dovish remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers and growing market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December, the dollar has recovered its daily losses, leaving GBP/USD still subdued. The CME FedWatch tool shows that markets now assign an 81% probability (up from 71% the day before) to a 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate at the December meeting. On Monday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller told Fox Business that his main concern was that "inflation is not a big problem with the labor market weak." He also hinted that September's nonfarm payroll data might be revised downward and warned that "no anecdotal evidence that firms are about to go on a hiring spree." All these remarks signal his support for near-term rate cuts.

Regarding the 4H chart, GBP/USD is oscillating around the EMA50, with the MACD line and the signal line pulling back near the zero axis. If they can rise back above the zero axis, the pair is likely to climb toward the resistance zone around 1.320–1.326. RSI stands at 55, indicating a wait-and-see mood, meaning a trend reversal could occur at any time. Based on the daily chart, the price is moving lower along the EMA12 and the Bollinger Middle Bands. In the short term, GBP/USD may return to near the middle band around 1.316. After the MACD line crossed the signal line and formed a golden cross, it is now pulling back toward the zero axis, but still has some distance to go, suggesting the rebound is not yet complete. RSI is at 42, showing lingering pessimism. Overall, the short-term rebound is still valid. Therefore, buying at lows is recommended.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.312

Target price: 1.33

Stop loss: 1.31

Support: 1.3/1.29/1.28

Resistance: 1.32/1.33/1.36