The EUR/USD pair retreated modestly from two-week highs near 1.1630, trading around 1.1615 at the time of writing, as investors digested a cocktail of contrasting macroeconomic signals. The euro’s resilience came despite lackluster data from the Eurozone and uncertainty surrounding the delayed release of key U.S. economic reports due to the now-ended government shutdown.

A positive risk mood helped cushion the single currency’s downside, with markets finding relief in the end of the 43-day U.S. government shutdown, which had cast a shadow over global risk appetite. President Donald Trump’s signing of the bill to reopen the government allowed markets to breathe a sigh of relief, restoring some clarity to an otherwise data-starved trading environment. The move is expected to free a backlog of U.S. macroeconomic indicators that were frozen during the shutdown, although the White House has hinted that some crucial reports, including October’s employment and inflation figures, may never be released.

From a European standpoint, however, optimism remains tempered. Eurozone Industrial Production data released earlier in the day disappointed market expectations, revealing the fragility of the bloc’s manufacturing sector. Output rose 0.2% month-on-month in September, a modest rebound from the upwardly revised 1.1% contraction in August, but still well short of the 0.7% growth economists had forecast. On an annual basis, industrial activity expanded 1.2%, undershooting projections of a 2.1% increase, and signaling that the region’s industrial base continues to grapple with sluggish demand and high borrowing costs.

The euro’s muted reaction to the data underscores that the macro narrative remains dominated by U.S. developments, particularly the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and the lingering uncertainty around delayed data releases. Market participants continue to parse comments from Fed officials, who remain divided over the path forward. On Wednesday, Governor Stephen Miran reiterated calls for additional rate cuts to support the economy, arguing that inflation remains subdued and policy tightening has gone too far. In contrast, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic adopted a more cautious tone, suggesting that inflationary pressures could re-emerge and that the labor market, though cooling, remains fundamentally sound.

These diverging policy views have left traders in limbo, keeping the U.S. dollar’s trajectory tied to expectations for future Fed action. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was expected to be the highlight of the trading day, but with no clarity on its release due to administrative delays, investors instead turned their focus to potential Fed commentary and the Monthly Budget Statement for clues on the central bank’s next moves.

Despite macro headwinds, technical indicators for EUR/USD remain broadly supportive. The pair recently broke through the key resistance level at 1.1595, confirming short-term bullish momentum and suggesting that the currency could target higher resistance zones near 1.1650 and 1.1680 in the sessions ahead. Price action continues to hold above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) — a bullish signal — while the overall structure suggests buyers remain in control despite intermittent pullbacks. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), however, hints at possible near-term exhaustion, signaling that upside momentum could face hurdles if sentiment shifts or if the dollar regains strength.

BUY EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.1615

STOP LOSS: 1.1570

TAKE PROFIT: 1.1680

During Thursday's European session, gold extended its rally for a third consecutive day and printed a three-week high. Bullion pierced the $2,040 level after President Trump signed a spending bill that ended the longest federal shutdown in U.S. history, a closure that had sidelined key Fed data releases. Also, broad-based dollar selling provided an additional tail-wind for the gold.

Markets are wagering that, once the data flow resumes, a softer U.S. economic outlook will justify additional rate cuts, a scenario that benefits non-yielding gold. Nevertheless, dissension within the FOMC persists, with several officials favouring a pause in the easing cycle to keep inflation in check. Supported by robust central-bank demand and investors hedging against rising fiscal risk in major economies, gold futures have advanced more than 60% year-to-date.

During the European session on Thursday, gold extended its rally for a third consecutive day and printed a three-week high. Around the $2,240 zone, bulls are running into a double-barreled ceiling: the weekly open/close pivot of 13-20 Oct; the descending trend-line, triggering an immediate wave of selling pressure. With limited follow-through momentum, gold's upside appears increasingly constrained. Therefore, chasing longs at current levels offers an unfavorable risk/reward and warrants a cautious stance.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 4254

Target Price: 4115

Stop Loss: 4289

Valid Until: November 28, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 4208/4178/4149

Resistance: 4244/4250/4264

According to the latest monthly report released by OPEC on November 12, the fundamental outlook of the global oil market has experienced a significant shift, becoming the primary driver behind today's WTI crude oil price movements. The most notable revision in the report pertains to the Q3 2025 global oil market assessment, which was sharply adjusted from a previous forecast of a supply deficit of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day. This near one million barrel per day reversal suggests the market may be transitioning from a tightening phase to a structurally oversupplied regime, exerting substantial downward pressure on oil prices. The primary reasons for this revision include higher-than-expected U.S. crude oil production and increased supply from OPEC member countries, resulting in a more ample global supply cushion.

This fundamental shift in outlook has rapidly transmitted to market prices. Following the report's publication, market sentiment was immediately undermined, and WTI futures plummeted by over 4%, briefly falling below US$59 per barrel. This sharp decline broke the nearly three-week consolidation pattern on technical charts, generating a clear downside breakout signal, which quickly shifted short-term market sentiment toward bearishness.

OPEC's report also highlights that, even with the planned suspension of output increases by the OPEC+ coalition in Q1 2026, a modest global supply surplus may still occur, further reinforcing expectations of medium-term market adequacy. Market participants are now closely monitoring the upcoming OPEC+ ministerial meeting on November 30, seeking indications of whether the organization will adopt new production policies to address the prevailing surplus situation.

In the 1D timeframe, the large bearish candlestick yesterday broke the nearly three-week sideways consolidation in crude oil prices, signifying a bearish breakout and a shift to a downtrend. The breach of the November 6 low at US$58.74 has opened the downward momentum toward US$56.00.

Currently, the primary support level below WTI is at US$56.00, with a more significant support at US$55.00. A breakdown below US$55.00 could further expand the downside potential. Conversely, if the price can stabilize within this support zone and form a clear bullish candlestick pattern, it could trigger a technical rebound, testing resistance range between US$60.00 and US$62.00.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 58.65

Target Price: 55.20

Stop Loss: 60.10

Valid Until: November 27, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 58.16, 56.00

Resistance: 58.97, 60.00

The downside potential for the USD/CAD currency pair may be limited. Minutes from the Bank of Canada's meeting on Wednesday revealed that the Governing Council chose to disregard volatile annual inflation data ahead of the October 29th interest rate decision, instead focusing on underlying inflation indicators to better gauge the overall inflation trend. This approach is believed to provide a more reliable signal. At its last meeting, the central bank lowered its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, signaling that this might be the final rate cut for the near term, as monetary policy support for the economy is approaching its limit. Committee members acknowledged that the impact of the government's sales tax cuts and the removal of the consumer carbon tax last year would cause temporary fluctuations in year-over-year inflation changes, hence the focus on underlying indicators. In September 2024, the annual inflation rate rose to 2.4%, primarily due to a smaller year-over-year decline in gasoline prices. The central bank expects inflation to remain around 2% over the next two years, at the midpoint of its 1% to 3% target range. The current interest rate is already at the lower bound of the neutral range and has a stimulating effect on economic growth. The Governing Council unanimously agreed that monetary policy support has nearly reached its maximum limit. Governor Tiff Macklem stated that further measures would be taken if the economy shows significant weakness. Although there were differing views on the timing of the rate cut, the October reduction was well justified given factors such as excess supply, a weak labor market, sluggish economic growth in the second half of the year, and stable inflation expectations. Committee members also expressed concern that labor market weakness could persist or even widen, linked to U.S. tariff policies, trade uncertainties, and immigration restrictions that are slowing population growth and reducing the number of new jobs needed to maintain employment levels.

With the end of the U.S. government shutdown, market sentiment has improved, which may lead to further strengthening of the U.S. dollar, potentially boosting the USD/CAD pair. Reuters reported that U.S. President Donald Trump signed a government funding bill on Thursday, officially ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. The bill mandates the restoration of government operations and calls for direct payments for healthcare to individuals. Additionally, the U.S. dollar may find support from hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve officials, which have reduced the likelihood of a December rate cut. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December have dropped to nearly 60%, down from 67% the previous day. Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, spoke on economic trends at the Atlanta Economics Club on Wednesday. Bostic warned that easing monetary policy too early could feed the 'inflation beast'. He also noted that a sharp downturn in the labor market is unlikely in the near term.

Based on the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with the short-term EMA12 flattening. The price is oscillating near the Bollinger Middle Band, and the MACD uptrend momentum has weakened, with the MACD and the signal lines pulling back toward the zero axis again. There is a high probability that the price will stabilize near the EMA50, around 1.397. The RSI value is at 50, indicating a market in a wait-and-see state, awaiting a directional breakout. Regarding the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are also narrowing. The MACD has formed a golden cross below the zero axis, and the price has stabilized and rebounded near the EMA200. There is a high likelihood of further upward movement toward the Bollinger Middle or Upper Band, at 1.404 and 1.408, respectively. The RSI value is at 40, suggesting the market remains in a pessimistic sentiment. Therefore, buying at lows is recommended.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.401

Target price: 1.44

Stop loss: 1.38

Support: 1.378/1.37/1.357

Resistance: 1.41/1.42/1.44

Canadian employment data provided a significant upside surprise on Friday, as Statistics Canada reported the Unemployment Rate dropped to 6.9% in October from the previous month’s 7.1%. This result comfortably beat market expectations, which were centered at 7.1%. Furthermore, the Canadian economy added 66,600 jobs in October, marking the second consecutive month of unexpectedly robust employment gains.

Turning to monetary policy, the Bank of Canada (BoC)'s survey of market participants indicates a broad expectation that the benchmark interest rate will remain steady at 2.25% until at least mid-2027. This consensus, however, is not universal among economists, with some anticipating another rate reduction as early as 2026, depending on the evolving landscape of international trade disputes.

In energy markets, attention shifts to key reports scheduled for release later in the day. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, commonly known as OPEC+, is set to publish its monthly market report, closely followed by the International Energy Agency's annual energy outlook. Both publications are expected to offer critical supply-and-demand forecasts extending into 2026, against a backdrop of persistent global concerns regarding oil oversupply.

The latest reports from the U.S. labor market depict a nuanced but generally decelerating trend. Last week's ADP Employment Change report showed that private payrolls increased by 42,000 in October, surpassing the 25,000 forecast and reversing September's 29,000 decline.

Conversely, a less optimistic picture emerged from the Challenger Job Cuts report, which disclosed that U.S. employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October—the highest monthly total recorded since 2003. Further data highlighted that the U.S. shed an average of 11,250 private-sector jobs in the four weeks ending October 25th, a marginal improvement from the 14,250 loss recorded in the preceding four-week period.

The debate among Federal Reserve officials regarding the appropriate policy path continues to intensify. Fed Governor Stephen Miran has publicly stated his view that current monetary policy is excessively restrictive. In sharp contrast, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic adopted a decidedly hawkish stance, warning that a move to lower rates prematurely risks fueling the "beast of inflation." Bostic further articulated his belief that a "severe labor market recession" is not imminent. It is noteworthy that Bostic also announced his intention to retire from his post in February 2026.

Despite President Bostic's cautious remarks, market expectations for easing have gained slight momentum. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed implementing a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut to the 3.50%-3.75% range at the December meeting has risen to 68%, up from the 62.4% observed earlier on Monday.

The USDCAD pair has recently found crucial technical support. Specifically, price action has been supported by the 200-period Moving Average (MA), currently situated at 1.4002, and the 100-period MA at 1.4021. Furthermore, a key horizontal support/resistance level resides at 1.3985, a price point that has historically acted as a significant pivot for the pair. The confluence of these technical indicators suggests that this is a critical juncture where the price is highly likely to change direction. Should these combined support levels hold firm, it could signal the beginning of a renewed bullish impulse.

Adding to the bullish outlook, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 41, having recently bounced back from a low of 29.31, which briefly registered the pair in oversold territory. This technical bounce aligns with the price stabilizing within the key 0.50 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone. The alignment of the RSI reversal with this major Fibonacci retracement area significantly increases the probability that the recent downward movement was a simple correction, setting the stage for a strong continuation of the prior uptrend.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.4010

Target price: 1.4140

Stop loss: 1.3950

Validity: Nov 21, 2025 15:00:00

Recent data from the U.S. labor market presents a mixed, but generally softening, picture. The ADP Employment Change report last week indicated that private payrolls increased by 42,000 in October, surpassing the 25,000 expectation and reversing September's 29,000 decline. However, a less encouraging trend emerged from the Challenger Job Cuts report, which revealed that U.S. employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, marking the highest monthly total since 2003. Further data showed that the U.S. lost an average of 11,250 private sector jobs in the four weeks ending October 25th, a slight improvement from the 14,250 loss recorded the prior month.

The debate among Federal Reserve officials regarding the appropriate policy stance continues to sharpen. Fed Governor Stephen Miran maintains that monetary policy is too restrictive. Conversely, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic adopted a hawkish position, cautioning that moving policy lower risks feeding the "beast of inflation." Bostic added that he does not foresee a "severe labor market recession." Notably, Bostic announced he will retire from his post in February 2026.

Despite Bostic's hawkish tone, market expectations for easing have increased slightly. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% at the December meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, has risen to 68% from 62.4% observed on Monday.

In Australia, inflation is running stronger than expected. The Australian economy saw inflation grow at a rate of 1.3% in the third quarter of the year, a significant acceleration from the 0.7% growth observed in the second quarter. This hot data strengthens the resolve of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep policy tight.

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser reaffirmed the central bank's need to maintain stable interest rates until officials gain confidence that inflation will sustainably return to the target. Speaking at a UBS conference in Sydney, Hauser stated that achieving the inflation target "will require policy to be restrictive enough to close the output gap." He added that the economy continues to "run above its potential," which effectively limits the room for "near-term rate cuts." Looking ahead, investors will focus on the Australian employment data for October, due on Thursday, which is expected to show the economy added 20K new workers, up from 14.9K in September.

AUD/USD is currently undergoing a bearish rejection from the 200-period Moving Average (MA) on the 4-hour chart, which sits at 0.6538. The price reached a brief local high of 0.6550 before turning lower.

If the price manages to close decisively below this 200-period MA, it could signal the onset of a deeper downward correction. This level is highly significant as it coincides with the 0.50 and 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement levels , a convergence that increases the probability that the most recent upward movement was merely a technical correction and that the primary bearish impulse is ready to resume from this zone.

The RSI is currently at 57, remaining out of overbought territory. However, it displays subtle bearish divergences when compared to previous higher price levels where the RSI reading was much lower than the current one. This technical alignment, coupled with the rejection from the 200-period MA, suggests that multiple technical factors are in place for a potential resumption of the downtrend.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.6536

Target price: 0.6480

Stop loss: 0.6570

Validity: Nov 21, 2025 15:00:00