Deteriorating Macroeconomic Conditions Continue to Weigh on the Crypto Market

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Macroeconomic concerns and geopolitical tensions may further impact Bitcoin prices. Current market dynamics closely align with historical volatility patterns.

SELL BTC-USDT

EXP

PENDING

93500.0

Entry Price

70870.0

99900.0

81694.4 -2960.3 -3.50%

Pips

PENDING

70870.0

Exit Price

93500.0

Entry Price

99900.0

Fundamentals

The cryptocurrency market is once again under pressure as the macroeconomic environment rapidly deteriorates amid escalating trade and geopolitical concerns. These developments have heightened worries about economic growth, policy uncertainty, and capital flows. Such trends reflect investors' growing anxiety over liquidity and geopolitical risks, which will impact the valuation of crypto assets and may trigger volatility across global financial markets.

From a market structure perspective, the current wave of selling suggests that Bitcoin's pullback since last November may have concluded. Price action has clearly turned downward, and if market risk sentiment continues to deteriorate, the risk of a renewed overall downtrend increases.

Additionally, some argue that the greatest risk facing Bitcoin does not stem from any single geopolitical event, but rather from the potential for such shocks to reignite inflation expectations, push up yields, and tighten financial conditions once again. Financial markets are currently experiencing inflationary pressures, which could trigger higher yields and tighter financial conditions. Meanwhile, the rise of gold as a safe-haven asset signals a shift in investor sentiment. This underscores that Bitcoin's position as “digital gold” in the market may be weakened.

Increased USDC redemptions and declining capital inflows have intensified capital concerns. On-chain data indicates a shrinking stablecoin supply and tightening liquidity. The market anticipates challenges following the expiration of a large volume of Bitcoin options.

Deteriorating Macroeconomic Conditions Continue to Weigh on the Crypto Market_1

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's rebound from US$80,492 appears to have peaked at US$97,922, having previously encountered resistance near US$97,986 from the 38.2% retracement level of the US$126,289 to US$80,492 range and the 55-week moving average. A decisive break below the US$86,405 support level would further reinforce the view that the downtrend originating from US$126,289 remains intact, potentially triggering another comprehensive test of the US$80,492 low.

If it falls below US$80,492, market focus will shift to a deeper mid-term pullback. Based on this, the next major downside target is the psychological threshold near US$70,000, which aligns with the 50% retracement level of the long-term uptrend from the 2022 low of US$15,452 to the 2025 high of US$126,289—specifically at US$70,870.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 93500

Target Price: 70870

Stop Loss: 99900

Valid Until: February 23, 2026 23:55:00

Support: 85932, 80492, 74333

Resistance: 91586, 94236, 97986

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Gerik

Forex

Economic

Summary:

USD/JPY remains pressured by a weaker US dollar and stronger yen sentiment after the dollar hit multi-year lows, but short-term price action shows the pair finding support around the mid-150s following recent declines....

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

153.800

Entry Price

156.500

152.300

153.786 +0.682 +0.45%

91.8

Pips

Loss

152.300

152.882

Exit Price

153.800

Entry Price

156.500

Market Overview

USD/JPY recently weakened as the US dollar struggled near four-year lows, partly due to broader dollar selling pressure across currency markets after comments from political leadership that intensified selling dynamics, which lifted the yen and other major currencies. The yen’s strength and speculation about possible intervention have been significant drivers of recent moves, while the pair’s decline slowed as the yen’s rapid rally paused. This creates a near-term technical backdrop where the dollar could catch a relief bounce against the yen if sellers cool off and the yen stabilizes.

Market Sentiment

Sentiment toward USD/JPY has been bearish due to the dollar’s broad weakness and yen strength fueled by intervention talk and safe-haven flows, leading to short-term downward pressure. However, recent data shows the pair finding a lower range base around mid-150s, which could encourage dip buyers to enter. Market positioning and sentiment indicators suggest that while the broader trend shows challenges for the dollar, short-term sentiment could shift toward USD buying on pullbacks if the yen’s rally loses steam and macro drivers stabilize.