Corrective Move Toward Support Could Strengthen Bullish Momentum

Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

A tactical retracement toward the 0.7926 area appears highly probable before the next leg up begins.

BUY USDCHF

EXP

PENDING

0.79300

Entry Price

0.80700

0.67890

0.79980 +0.00115 +0.14%

Pips

PENDING

0.67890

Exit Price

0.79300

Entry Price

0.80700

Domestic indicators emerging from Switzerland continue to portray a fragile landscape for overall business activity. The SVME Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) underwent a significant contraction in December, plummeting to 45.8 from the previous month's 49.7. This specific reading highlights a deepening recessionary trend within the Swiss manufacturing sector, emphasizing persistent structural vulnerabilities. Consequently, market participants have shifted their primary focus toward the upcoming Swiss inflation data scheduled for release this Thursday.

Current projections indicate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is likely to show a month-over-month decline of 0.1% for December, following a previous 0.2% contraction. Conversely, on a year-over-year basis, inflation is expected to see a negligible uptick to 0.1% from 0.0%. Any data print that falls below these conservative estimates could intensify concerns regarding a structurally low-inflation environment. Such a scenario might exert renewed pressure on the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to reconsider a pivot back toward negative interest rates to stimulate the economy.

In the United States, the latest ADP Employment Change report showed that private payrolls grew by 41,000 in December. Although this figure missed the consensus forecast of 47,000, it represents a substantial recovery compared to the 29,000 jobs lost in November, suggesting a tentative stabilization in hiring as the year closed. In tandem, the U.S. Department of Labor’s JOLTS report showed that job openings retreated to 7.146 million in November, down from October’s 7.449 million, signaling a gradual cooling in broad labor demand.

Providing a counterweight to the softening labor data, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported a notable surge in the Services PMI, which climbed from 52.6 to 54.4 in December, easily beating the 52.3 estimate. A granular look at the data shows the Employment index returning to expansion at 52, while the Prices Paid component saw a slight moderation. This blend of resilient service sector activity and cooling labor metrics keeps the Federal Reserve in a cautious "wait-and-see" posture ahead of their late-January meeting. While service strength discourages aggressive monetary easing, the labor slowdown continues to build a fundamental case for gradual rate reductions.

Finally, geopolitical tensions are escalating due to renewed U.S. strategic interest in Greenland. The White House confirmed that President Donald Trump and his advisors are evaluating various acquisition options, with the administration stating that military force remains a potential tool. This rhetoric adds a significant layer of uncertainty to global risk sentiment, impacting currency valuations. Corrective Move Toward Support Could Strengthen Bullish Momentum_1

Corrective Move Toward Support Could Strengthen Bullish Momentum_1

Technical Analysis

The USD/CHF pair is currently approaching a significant resistance ceiling at 0.7986. This level proved formidable on December 17th, when the price suffered a sharp bearish rejection from this exact zone. Given this historical context, we may witness another short-term rejection as sellers attempt to defend the area.

However, the prevailing short-term bias remains decidedly bullish; therefore, long positions are considered more favorable than counter-trend shorts. A tactical retracement toward the 0.7926 area appears highly probable before the next leg up begins. This specific level is bolstered by a historical support zone that has previously served as a launchpad for upward price action. Traders will be monitoring this region closely to join the primary trend at a more advantageous price.

Technical confluence further strengthens this support thesis. The 100 and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) are currently situated at 0.7917 and 0.7961, respectively, providing a layer of dynamic support near the horizontal floor. Additionally, this zone aligns with the 0.50 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels, creating a high-probability "buy zone."

Should the price exhibit a bullish reaction as it nears this confluence of indicators, long positions would be heavily favored. This setup offers a strategic entry point for those looking to capitalize on the sustained bullish momentum while maintaining a disciplined risk-to-reward ratio.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.7930

Target price: 0.8070

Stop loss: 0.67890

Validity: Jan 16, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

Recently, the pair attempted a breakout above the upper boundary but was met with immediate rejection, resulting in a rapid re-entry into the wedge's range.

SELL AUDUSD

EXP

PENDING

0.67500

Entry Price

0.66000

0.68200

0.66942 -0.00040 -0.06%

Pips

PENDING

0.66000

Exit Price

0.67500

Entry Price

0.68200

The latest ADP Employment Change report revealed that private payrolls expanded by 41,000 in December. While this figure fell short of the 47,000 forecast, it represents a notable recovery from November's loss of 29,000 jobs, suggesting a tentative stabilization in hiring trends as the year concluded. Simultaneously, the U.S. Department of Labor's JOLTS report indicated that job openings retreated to 7.146 million in November, down from October’s 7.449 million, pointing toward a gradual cooling in overall labor demand.

Conversely, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported a significant surge in the Services PMI, which jumped from 52.6 to 54.4 in December, comfortably exceeding the expected 52.3. A closer look at the subcomponents reveals that the Employment index returned to expansionary territory, rising from 48.9 to 52, while Prices Paid saw a marginal decline from 65.4 to 64.3. This mixture of resilient service activity and cooling labor metrics places the Federal Reserve in a "wait-and-see" stance ahead of its January 27-28 meeting. While the robust service sector discourages aggressive easing, the softening labor market continues to provide a fundamental case for gradual rate reductions.

On the geopolitical front, renewed strategic interest from the U.S. regarding Greenland is heightening global tensions. The White House recently confirmed that President Donald Trump and his advisors are discussing various options for the acquisition of the territory, adding that the use of military force remains "always an option," a sentiment that adds a layer of uncertainty to broader market risk sentiment.

Regarding the Australian economy, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to show an annual increase of 3.7% for November, a slight deceleration from October’s 3.8% peak. Despite this moderation, inflation remains above the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range of 2% to 3%. RBA Governor Michele Bullock has maintained a neutral but vigilant stance, emphasizing that future adjustments will be data-dependent. However, recent Australian labor data has begun to show cracks, with a loss of 21,300 jobs in November and a significant reduction in full-time employment, even as the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Rising Geopolitical Tensions And Technical Patterns Signal An AUDUSD Pullback_1

Rising Geopolitical Tensions And Technical Patterns Signal An AUDUSD Pullback_1

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, AUD/USD appears to be navigating within a Rising Wedge pattern, a formation typically associated with an impending bearish reversal. Recently, the pair attempted a breakout above the upper boundary but was met with immediate rejection, resulting in a rapid re-entry into the wedge's range. This "fakeout" often serves as a leading indicator that a corrective move is on the horizon.

On the downside, the 100 and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs), located at 0.6705 and 0.6673 respectively, are providing a layer of dynamic support along the lower trendline. A decisive break below this confluence could accelerate the correction, with primary bearish targets identified at the 0.6594 horizontal support level.

Momentum indicators further corroborate the case for a pullback. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently touched 76.53, moving deep into overbought territory. This extreme reading suggests that the recent rally is overextended, likely prompting traders to initiate profit-taking.

Notably, the identified local support zone also aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci expansion level in the context of an extended correction. If the bearish momentum intensifies, this zone will serve as a magnet for price action. However, should the price fail to break the ascending trendline with conviction, the downward move may stall near current support levels, keeping the broader bullish structure temporarily intact.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.6750

Target price: 0.6600

Stop loss: 0.6820

Validity: Jan 16, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

EUR/JPY trades near 182.90 as geopolitical tensions and BoJ hawkishness support the yen, while easing inflation and weak German data weigh on the euro, leaving the pair biased lower below key technical levels.

SELL EURJPY

EXP

TRADING

182.900

Entry Price

180.500

184.000

183.114 +0.230 +0.13%

0.0

Pips

Flat

180.500

Exit Price

182.900

Entry Price

184.000

The EUR/JPY cross traded near 182.90 on Wednesday, extending its recent decline and slipping around 0.1% on the session, as renewed demand for the Japanese Yen continued to weigh on the pair. The move reflects a broader defensive shift across global markets, driven by rising geopolitical tensions in Asia and reinforced by increasingly firm signals from the Bank of Japan that its long-standing ultra-loose monetary stance is drawing to a close. Against this backdrop, the euro remains vulnerable, pressured by cooling inflation dynamics and signs of a deteriorating growth outlook across the Eurozone.

Latest figures from Eurostat showed that inflation across the single-currency bloc continued to ease in December, reinforcing the view that price pressures are gradually returning toward the European Central Bank’s target. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices rose by 2.0% on a year-on-year basis, in line with market expectations and slightly below the 2.1% reading recorded in November. On a monthly basis, prices increased by 0.2%, reversing a contraction seen in the prior month, though the broader disinflationary trend remains intact. More importantly for policymakers, core inflation slowed to 2.3% from 2.4%, confirming that underlying price pressures are losing momentum across the region.

While easing inflation offers some relief to households and businesses, it also highlights the fragility of the Eurozone economy. This is particularly evident in Germany, where recent data continue to underscore persistent weakness in domestic demand. Retail sales in Europe’s largest economy fell by 0.6% in November following a 0.3% decline in October, sharply contradicting expectations for a modest rebound. At the same time, German inflation slowed markedly in December, reinforcing concerns that subdued pricing power reflects weak consumption rather than improved productivity. Survey-based indicators paint a similarly cautious picture, with the Eurozone services Purchasing Managers’ Index revised lower for December, suggesting that momentum in the bloc’s most important growth engine is beginning to fade.

These developments leave the euro exposed, especially against currencies supported by either stronger growth prospects or defensive flows. In the case of the Japanese Yen, both factors are currently at play. Risk sentiment deteriorated sharply after tensions between China and Japan escalated earlier this week, following Beijing’s announcement of restrictions on exports of dual-use goods to Japan. The move was widely seen as retaliation for comments by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding Taiwan, reviving diplomatic strains between two of Asia’s most influential economies. Such developments have historically boosted demand for the yen, which continues to serve as a key safe-haven asset during periods of regional or global uncertainty.

Beyond geopolitics, monetary policy divergence remains a critical driver of EUR/JPY dynamics. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuho Ueda reiterated that the central bank remains committed to gradually tightening policy, reinforcing expectations that further interest rate increases are likely as Japan normalizes policy after decades of extraordinary accommodation. Although markets remain cautious about the precise timing of the next move, the BoJ’s increasingly hawkish tone provides structural support to the yen, particularly as investors contrast it with a European Central Bank that appears closer to easing than tightening. Nevertheless, lingering concerns over Japan’s fiscal position and elevated public debt levels may prevent an unchecked surge in the yen, potentially limiting the pace of further EUR/JPY declines.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the pair continues to trade below a key pivot level near 183.57, a development that keeps bearish momentum intact. Price action suggests that EUR/JPY is reacting negatively to this zone and remains vulnerable to a move toward overlapping support near 181.73. A sustained break below that area would likely reinforce downside pressure and confirm a broader corrective phase. On the upside, resistance around 184.38 remains a key barrier, and only a decisive move above that level would begin to ease near-term bearish risks. Given the current macro and geopolitical landscape, however, such a recovery appears unlikely without a material improvement in Eurozone growth prospects or a meaningful de-escalation of tensions in Asia.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL EURJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 182.90

STOP LOSS: 184.00

TAKE PROFIT: 180.50

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

GBP/JPY has retreated from multi-year highs as rising China–Japan tensions and BoJ tightening signals boost the yen, though the broader trend remains bullish amid ongoing concerns over Japan’s fiscal outlook.

SELL GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

211.000

Entry Price

209.000

212.000

211.063 +0.241 +0.11%

28.4

Pips

Profit

209.000

210.716

Exit Price

211.000

Entry Price

212.000

The British pound retreated against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, easing from fresh long-term highs above the 212.00 mark reached earlier in the week, as renewed geopolitical tensions in Asia and a shift toward risk aversion lifted demand for the safe-haven Japanese currency. GBP/JPY slipped back below 211.00, with traders opting to lock in profits following the pair’s strong multi-week rally and reassess exposure amid deteriorating regional sentiment.

The move came as relations between China and Japan took a more confrontational turn. On Tuesday, Beijing announced a ban on exports of dual-use goods to Japan, materials that can be employed for both civilian and military purposes. The decision is widely viewed as a direct response to comments made by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding Taiwan, which have further strained diplomatic ties between Asia’s two largest economies after China.

Takaichi stated in November that a hypothetical Chinese military action against Taiwan could prompt a response from Japan, remarks that were met with strong condemnation from Beijing. The episode reopened long-standing geopolitical fault lines in the region, raising concerns among investors about potential disruptions to trade, supply chains, and broader regional stability. Markets responded by scaling back risk exposure, a move that traditionally favors the Japanese yen given its long-standing role as a safe-haven and funding currency.

Adding to the yen’s strength were comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuho Ueda, who reiterated earlier this week that the central bank remains committed to further monetary tightening. While the pace of normalization is expected to remain cautious, Ueda’s remarks reinforced expectations that Japan is gradually moving away from decades of ultra-loose monetary policy. This narrative has become increasingly supportive for the yen, particularly during periods when global risk appetite fades.

In contrast, sterling struggled to find support from domestic fundamentals. In the UK, December’s final S&P Global Services PMI was revised lower to 51.4 from a preliminary reading of 52.1, pointing to softer momentum in the country’s dominant services sector. Although the index remains in expansionary territory, the downward revision underscores concerns that economic growth is losing traction as higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions weigh on activity.

Despite the near-term decline, the broader trend in GBP/JPY remains decisively bullish. The pair is still trading nearly six percent above its early-November lows, reflecting persistent structural pressures on the yen. Chief among these are ongoing concerns about Japan’s fiscal position. In December, Prime Minister Takaichi’s cabinet approved an additional $118 billion budget to fund a new stimulus package, a move that is expected to exacerbate strains on public finances already burdened by one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios in the developed world.

While fiscal stimulus may offer short-term economic support, it also reinforces longer-term doubts about sustainability, limiting the yen’s ability to mount a sustained recovery during periods of calm market conditions. As a result, rallies in the Japanese currency have so far been largely reactive, driven by external shocks rather than a durable shift in fundamentals.

From a market perspective, the current pullback in GBP/JPY appears corrective rather than indicative of a broader trend reversal. Geopolitical risk and central bank rhetoric have provided temporary relief for the yen, but unless tensions escalate further or the Bank of Japan delivers a more aggressive tightening path, the structural yield advantage enjoyed by sterling is likely to keep the longer-term bias tilted to the upside.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, short-term price action supports the view of a corrective move. On the hourly chart, GBP/JPY has reacted sharply from the 211.37 area, a key overlap support zone that has now acted as resistance. The rejection from this level suggests that bearish momentum has room to extend in the near term. The move lower remains technically valid as long as price holds below the 211.98 region, which represents a recent swing high and a critical resistance level. On the downside, the 210.54 area stands out as an important pullback support, where buying interest could re-emerge in line with the broader bullish trend. Momentum indicators on lower timeframes continue to favor further consolidation or modest downside before the next directional move takes shape.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GBPJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 211.00

STOP LOSS: 212.00

TAKE PROFIT: 209.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

The rise in Ethereum prices has significantly impacted short positions on exchanges. Ethereum leadership has not commented directly on this matter. Institutional investors are stimulating market interest through ETFs.

SELL ETH-USDT

EXP

TRADING

3217.40

Entry Price

2785.00

3596.00

3123.22 +18.96 +0.61%

0.0

Pips

Flat

2785.00

Exit Price

3217.40

Entry Price

3596.00

Fundamentals

Ethereum prices surged past US$3,300 on Tuesday, posting a daily gain of 3.27% and triggering US$809 million in short liquidations across centralized exchanges. Institutional capital inflows and the adoption of new banking solutions fueled this growth, establishing fresh support levels.

Ethereum's price has surged past US$3,300, marking a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency market. Institutional investor inflows via Ethereum ETFs and the upcoming launch of a digital asset vault in 2025 provide robust support for ETH's upward trajectory.

The participation of institutional investors has sparked broader interest in this cryptocurrency, even though Ethereum's founders have not publicly commented on price movements. However, the market believes this breakthrough could impact Bitcoin and other altcoins, thereby influencing the entire market. The volume of liquidations associated with Ethereum's price surge has increased, particularly on centralized exchanges.

Long-term timeframes indicate that if the current trend persists, Ethereum prices have the potential to reach higher levels, despite the absence of regulatory changes at this time.

The massive liquidation of millions of dollars in short positions triggered market volatility, highlighting trader sentiment and market fluctuations, while no significant changes emerged in government regulation. Recent price action shows Ethereum breaking above US$3,300, aligning with historical support and resistance patterns observed during the consolidation phase preceding previous rallies. This development underscores shifting market dynamics and potential future price trajectories. Sustained institutional investor interest and trading patterns may lay the groundwork for further expansion or adjustments within the digital asset sector.

Bulls Break Through US$3,300, US$800 Million Short Liquidations Ignite Market Sentiment?_1

Technical Analysis

Ethereum has recently encountered strong resistance near its previous high of US$3,250. This level has been a critical point determining whether bulls can sustain their upward momentum. Should Ethereum reclaim and hold above US$3,250 in the 4H timeframe, it could trigger an upward move toward US$3,450. However, current resistance remains significant, and price action around this level will be crucial for confirming the next directional move.

If prices can decisively break through this resistance level, they may rise to the US$3,450 range. Despite the possibility of a breakout, some traders remain cautious about the potential for a pullback.

On the other hand, Ethereum bulls remain in a fragile position, and a break below US$3,000 could signal further declines toward the US$2,950 range. This may trigger a fresh round of consolidation for bulls and potentially lead to renewed downward pressure. It is recommended to set the foundation.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 3250

Target Price: 2785

Stop Loss: 3596

Valid Until: January 22, 2026 23:55:00

Support: 2919, 2716, 2624

Resistance: 3312, 3452, 3656

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Commodity

Forex

Summary:

Investors are still digesting the recent U.S. strikes on Venezuela. The underlying bullish sentiment has also become a key factor triggering profit-taking in precious metals. However, escalating geopolitical tensions and market expectations of a dovish stance from the Fed appear to be limiting gold's downside potential.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4464.48

Entry Price

4100.00

4600.00

4470.96 -6.83 -0.15%

199.8

Pips

Profit

4100.00

4444.50

Exit Price

4464.48

Entry Price

4600.00

Fundamentals

Earlier this week, U.S. President Trump made confrontational remarks about Colombia and Mexico, and then threatened to annex Greenland. In addition, traders have been pricing in expectations of two more rate cuts by the Fed. Nevertheless, this failed to sustain the U.S. dollar's previous day's rally; instead, it may offer some support to non-interest-bearing gold. Traders may also choose to wait for the release of key U.S. macroeconomic data, including the non-farm payroll report due on Friday.

Furthermore, factors such as the lack of progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks, the volatile situation in Iran, and the Gaza issue have heightened geopolitical risks, which may underpin the price of gold—a traditional safe-haven asset. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, rose by 2 tons from the previous day to reach 1,067.13 tons currently.

In terms of institutional views, Morgan Stanley forecasts that gold prices are expected to climb to $4,800 per ounce by the Q4 of this year, surpassing the previous record high. The bank pointed out that the main drivers behind the upward trend of gold prices include the downward interest rate trend, expectations of a leadership reshuffle at the Fed, and the sustained allocation demand from central banks and institutional funds.

The latest economic data showed that the expansion pace of the U.S. service sector slowed down. The S&P Global U.S. Services PMI final reading for December came in at 52.5, down from the prior reading of 54.1 and the market consensus of 54, hitting an eight-month low. Sub-item data indicated that the growth rate of new orders fell to a 20-month low, with businesses widely citing demand uncertainties caused by tariff policies and weakening consumer spending momentum. Meanwhile, affected by trade frictions, export orders recorded the sharpest decline since May. Additionally, due to falling capacity demand and budget constraints, employment scale saw a slight contraction for the first time in nine months, reflecting signs of moderate slowdown in economic momentum.

On the monetary policy front, recent remarks from Fed officials have highlighted their cautious attitude towards future interest rate adjustments. Thomas Barkin, President of the Fed Bank of Richmond, noted that future rate decisions need to be more refined to strike a balance between curbing inflation and avoiding a significant rise in the unemployment rate. Further, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman stated that more than 100 bps of rate cuts may be needed in 2026. Currently, interest rate futures markets still reflect traders' expectations of two rate cuts in 2024. However, the probability of a rate cut at the January meeting is only around 16.1%, indicating that the market remains cautious about a near-term policy pivot.

Technical Analysis

On the 1-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are contracting and narrowing, with moving averages flattening out, suggesting that a trend reversal could occur at any time. In the short term, gold may still test the levels around 4485 and 4500. If it fails to break through the new high, it is highly likely to drop to around the EMA200, with the price hovering near 4288. The MACD has formed a bearish crossover, and upward momentum is gradually weakening. The fast and slow lines are pulling back towards the zero axis, indicating that the correction is drawing to a close. The RSI stands at 49, placing the market in a neutral consolidation zone.

On the 15-minute chart, after breaking below the lower Bollinger Band, the price rebounded quickly to around the middle Bollinger Band. The MACD has formed a bullish crossover, with the fast and slow lines pulling back towards the zero axis but still remaining some distance away, suggesting that the rebound is not yet complete. The RSI is at 49, reflecting investors' indecision in the market. Therefore, the proposed trading strategy is to go short first and then long.

Pressure at 4500! Gold to Correct to Around 4200_1

Pressure at 4500! Gold to Correct to Around 4200_2

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 4485

Target Price: 4100

Stop Loss: 4600

Support: 4200/4100/3800

Resistance: 4530/4550/5000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Commodity

Summary:

The fundamental analysis continues to support a bullish outlook for gold, but technical indicators suggest that gold is currently in a consolidation phase, likely to remain range-bound between 4,550 and 4,300 in the short term.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4465.11

Entry Price

4340.00

4505.00

4470.96 -6.83 -0.15%

165.1

Pips

Profit

4340.00

4448.60

Exit Price

4465.11

Entry Price

4505.00

Fundamentals

Recent bullish fundamentals support for gold prices include: firstly, the escalating market expectation of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the first easing since the year's start exerting downward pressure on nominal and real interest rates, thereby reducing the opportunity cost of gold holdings and enhancing its relative appeal. Secondly, persistent inflows into gold-related ETFs from institutional and passive funds indicate strong capital flows, with institutional buying and ETF net inflows establishing visible demand fundamentals for physical gold. Thirdly, multiple investment banks and research institutions have revised their medium-term gold price forecasts upward, suggesting further upside potential driven by declining interest rates and central bank purchase strategies (e.g., Morgan Stanley's optimistic outlook).

Overall, these factors underpin the logic of support for high-level gold prices: short-term market signals (U.S. Treasury yields, dollar strength, key economic data) may cause volatility, but medium-term expectations remain predominantly bullish due to sustained capital flows and policy outlooks.

Technical Analysis

Overall Trend Is Bullish, with Short-Term Volatility Persisting_1

In the 1D timeframe, gold is currently consolidating at elevated levels. Until the resistance at 4,550 is broken, it is likely to remain within a range of 4,300 to 4,550 in the near term. However, the SMA system still maintains a bullish alignment, indicating that the medium- to long-term trend remains upward.

Overall Trend Is Bullish, with Short-Term Volatility Persisting_2

In the 1H timeframe, recent candlestick patterns suggest the formation of a Head and Shoulders top structure. If gold fails to break above 4,475 in the short term and the 1H candlesticks close lower, it indicates the right shoulder of the pattern is forming, and bearish momentum will significantly increase. The initial target could be a decline below 4,400.