CAD/CHF hovers around 0.599 as BoC stands pat and SNB forecasts rate cut

Forex

Summary:

The CAD/CHF pair traded around 0.5990 as the Canadian dollar came under pressure from the Bank of Canada (BoC) keeping interest rates at 2.75% and the prospect of a rate cut by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) amid negative Swiss inflation data...

SELL CADCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.59800

Entry Price

0.59500

0.60300

0.58194 -0.00013 -0.02%

29.5

Pips

Loss

0.59500

0.60095

Exit Price

0.59800

Entry Price

0.60300

Macro Overview

The BoC decided on June 4, 2025 to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.75%, stressing the need for more data to assess the impact of US trade policy and rising inventories.

Although Canada's GDP in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 2.2%, core inflation increased rapidly to 3.15%, causing the BoC to maintain a cautious stance and still prepare to cut interest rates in the second half of the year if the economy shows signs of weakness.

Meanwhile, the SNB is under great pressure after inflation returned to -0.1% in May 2025, the first time it has fallen into negative territory since the pandemic, leading the market to expect the SNB to cut interest rates from 0.25% to 0% when they meet on June 19, 2025.

In the commodity market, Brent prices remained around $65/barrel, down slightly from the peak at the beginning of the month but still maintaining a stable view as OPEC+ is expected to increase production in August 2025 and global demand remains at an average level.

The sideways oil price is holding back the buying power of the CAD, as Canada is a major oil exporter. In this context, the SNB could intervene in FX to prevent the CHF from rising too much as the franc has strengthened more than 10% against the USD since the beginning of 2025, further creating conditions for the CHF to adjust lower against the CAD.

Market psychology

The overall market sentiment suggests that investors are torn between a future BoC tightening and a more aggressive SNB easing. The latest CFTC report shows that hedge funds have been reducing their long CAD/CHF positions over the past week, reflecting caution and anticipation of the SNB meeting.

The “Fear Greed” index in the European foreign exchange market is maintaining near neutral levels, meaning that money has not yet flowed strongly into CHF as a normal safe haven, but is mainly maintaining a state of waiting for the reaction of the SNB and BoC.

The slight rally in CHF in recent weeks has subsided due to news of negative inflation and the possibility of interest rates going to 0%.Meanwhile, CAD has not been able to break out strongly because BoC has not yet given a specific cut signal, causing cash flow to not rush to increase long CAD/CHF positions.

Technical analysis

CAD/CHF hovers around 0.599 as BoC stands pat and SNB forecasts rate cut_1

CAD/CHF price around 0.5990 on M15 chart is currently just below the middle line of Bollinger Bands (20,0,2), with the middle band (MA20) estimated around 0.6000, the upper band around 0.6045 and the lower band around 0.5955.

The price “pullback” from the 0.6005–0.6010 zone (Ichimoku’s middle band and Kijun-sen zone) shows that sellers still have the upper hand in the short term.

On Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9,26,52), M15 shows price below Kumo cloud, Tenkan-sen line (9) crosses below Kijun-sen (26) around 0.6005, sending short-term sell signal.

The front kumo cloud is still sloping down, creating resistance around 0.6020–0.6030. This suggests that selling pressure continues to dominate and the price will find it difficult to break above 0.6030 without a strong breakout.

The Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) indicator on the M15 chart is fluctuating around the 30 threshold, not yet in the oversold zone (below 20) but has a downward trend, implying that selling pressure still has room to push the price to test the lower Bollinger band (around 0.5955). RSI shows that the price is not oversold, there is still room to fall further if the SNB news causes a surprise..

Furthermore, the large forex trading volume for CAD/CHF has not shown a significant breakout, reflecting relatively thin liquidity at the current price range.

Trading Recommendations

Entry: 0,5980

Take Profit: 0,5950

Stop Loss: 0,6030

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

EUR/AUD traded around 1.7552 as the euro was pressured by the prospect of a rate cut from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Australian dollar weakened on sluggish Australian economic growth and expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut interest rates further...

SELL EURAUD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.75700

Entry Price

1.74800

1.76500

1.75516 +0.00249 +0.14%

29.6

Pips

Profit

1.74800

1.75404

Exit Price

1.75700

Entry Price

1.76500

Macro Overview

The Eurozone is experiencing a noticeable deflationary phase as headline inflation fell to 1.9% in May, below the ECB's 2% target, fueling expectations that the ECB will cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at its June meeting (possibly to 2.00%) to stimulate growth.

A drop in services and energy dragged core CPI down to 2.3% from 2.7%, leaving analysts expecting the easing cycle to continue even as concerns about global trade tensions could push prices higher in the longer term.

Meanwhile, Australia just announced that its first quarter GDP increased by 0.2%, down sharply from 0.6% in the previous quarter and lower than the forecast of 0.4% due to negative government spending, causing the RBA to cut interest rates to 3.85% and the market priced in the possibility of a further cut to 3.60% in July.

These factors combined to weaken the euro slightly against the AUD, but the AUD was also pressured by the prospect of further rate cuts and increased risk sentiment in global markets.

Market psychology

Market sentiment on EUR/AUD is currently cautious as both sides face policy pressure: the europhon expects the ECB to cut interest rates further due to low inflation, while the Australian expects the RBA to continue cutting rates due to weak growth.

CFTC data shows that hedge funds slightly reduced their long EUR/AUD positions in the latest week, implying that institutional traders are uncertain about the clear trend.

Meanwhile, the risk sentiment index (VIX) has been trending slightly higher this week, indicating that capital flows are looking to assets such as USD and JPY instead of AUD, putting additional pressure on AUD and limiting the strong recovery of the euro.

Technical analysis

EUR/AUD hovers around 1.755 as ECB prepares to cut rates and RBA continues to ease policy_1

On the chart, EUR/AUD is trading below the MA20 and MA50, indicating that the medium-term downtrend remains intact. The first resistance is located around 1.7680 (03/06/2025 high), marking the upper band of the short-term falling wedge, while important support is at the 1.7492–1.7500 low zone (05/05/2025 and 29/05/2025 trading).

The RSI indicator on the chart is maintaining around 42, not yet entering the oversold zone, indicating that selling pressure is still there but not too strong.

Bollinger Bands (20,0,2) on the chart show the lower band around 1.7450, the middle band around 1.7600 and the upper band around 1.7750, reflecting the main fluctuation range between 1.7450–1.7750. The area around 1.7550 is currently located between the middle band and the lower band, suggesting a possibility of further bottoming around 1.7500–1.7450 if the price breaks through the support at 1.7492. The Stochastic indicator (5,3,3) on the H4 chart is approaching the oversold zone (below 20), suggesting a possible short-term technical pullback before continuing the downtrend if there is no clear breakout.

Trading Recommendations

Entry: 1,7570

Take Profit: 1,7480

Stop Loss: 1,7650

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

BTC/USD on June 5, 2025 traded around $105,000, reflecting the waiting sentiment for US CPI data and the influence of institutional money. Technical analysis using Bollinger Bands, Ichimoku and Stochastic shows that the price is consolidating around the support of $104,800–$105,000, possibly bouncing to the $105,600 zone if this support holds, or falling deeply to $104,000 if selling pressure breaks through the support. Investors can consider opening a buy position around $104,900 with a target of $105,600 and a stop loss at $104,500....

BUY BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

105157.9

Entry Price

106600.0

104500.0

91946.8 +2392.0 +2.67%

657.9

Pips

Loss

104500.0

Exit Price

105157.9

Entry Price

106600.0

Macro Overview

On the macro scale, the cryptocurrency market in general and Bitcoin in particular are being affected by both “risk-on” and “risk-off” factors in the global financial market. Firstly, recent US economic data has shown mixed signals: non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for May is forecast to remain high, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will not adjust interest rates sharply, supporting the USD and putting pressure on risky assets.

Second, US-China trade tensions remain low after the round of negotiations in late May, helping to relieve some of the pressure to sell off risky assets, while also creating conditions for Bitcoin to benefit as investors seek alternative “safe havens”, although capital flows into gold are still slightly higher in the short term.

Additionally, news of the US “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” signed by the Trump administration in March has somewhat reinforced expectations that the state will play a role in keeping Bitcoin prices from falling too sharply, in the event of major market volatility.

However, up to this point, the reserve's purchase commitment has not been widely implemented, so the effect on Bitcoin price is still indirect and more psychological.

Market psychology

From a psychological perspective, Bitcoin currently reflects the indecision between institutional and retail investors. The COT (Commitment of Traders) report from late May showed that hedge funds and large institutions are holding a slight net long position, showing confidence in the medium-term bullish scenario.

However, some individual investors tended to take profits from the profits made in May, when Bitcoin peaked at $109,377 on May 27, leading to a price correction back to around $105,000 over the past week.

The “Fear Greed” sentiment index on June 5, 2025 was at 55/100, indicating that market sentiment is slightly inclined towards “greed” but not at an excessively high level, implying that there is still room for price increases if there is new positive news, but also warning of the possibility of an impending technical correction.

Recently, some tweets from the Twitter community mentioned the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $115,000 in the short term, but most professional analysts still believe that target lacks a solid basis in real capital flows, leading to technical short selling, causing the price to fluctuate around $105,000.

Technical analysis

Bitcoin still recorded net inflows of nearly $185 million in the week ending June 2_1

On the M15 chart, Bollinger Bands with parameters (20, 0, 2) show that the middle band (MA20) is around $104,800, the upper band is around $108,000, the lower band is around $101,600. Currently, Bitcoin price is touching the lower border of the band (price around $105,000), suggesting the possibility of a slight increase to return to the middle of the band (around $104,800–$105,000), while strong selling pressure appears if breaking through the support zone of $104,800 will pave the way for a deeper decline to around $101,600 (lower band).

On the M15 chart, Bitcoin price is currently below the Kumo cloud, the Tenkan-sen line (9) is crossing below the Kijun-sen (26) around $105,300, signaling a short-term sell signal.

The Kumo cloud ahead is red, with Senkou Span A and B hovering at $105,600–$106,200, suggesting a key resistance zone in the $105,600–$106,200 range for any recovery.

In case the price breaks above the cloud of terror (breakout above $106,200), the next target to aim for could be $108,000, corresponding to the upper band of the Bollinger band and the Senkou Span A line in the D1 frame. However, if the price fails to conquer $105,600, the sellers will still retain short-term control.

Stochastic (5, 3, 3) on the H1 frame is currently maintaining in the neutral zone, with %K around 40 and %D around 45, not yet entering the oversold (below 20) or overbought (above 80) zone, showing no clear reversal signal.

However, the %K line is showing signs of curving down, predicting the possibility of the price continuing to test the bottom around $104,800–$105,000 before considering a technical recovery.

Trading Recommendations

Entry: 104.900 USD

Take Profit: 106.600 USD

Stop Loss: 104.500 USD

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Commodity

Summary:

Today, June 5, 2025 (GMT+7), XAU/USD continued to maintain around $3,370 as gold received support from safe-haven sentiment amid unstable global economic developments and a slight recovery of the USD following positive US employment data.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3376.00

Entry Price

3360.00

3385.00

4207.99 +10.08 +0.24%

90.0

Pips

Loss

3360.00

3385.02

Exit Price

3376.00

Entry Price

3385.00

Overview

On the macro scale, the gold market today is being affected by a mix of support from the global economic situation and resistance from the recovering USD.

Specifically, on June 4, 2025, gold prices increased by about 1% due to a weakening USD and declining service activity data in the US, causing investors to seek gold as a safe haven.

However, on June 3, 2025, after the JOLTS report showed that the US labor market remained tight, the USD rebounded, causing the price of gold to fall to $3,348, indicating a possible reversal if the employment data continues to be positive. In addition, trade tensions between the US and China are still simmering, as both sides continue to increase tariff pressure, creating psychological pressure to support gold as a shelter from political and economic instability.

In the Asian market this morning, XAU/USD traded in the range of 3,343.95–3,384.70 USD, with a bid price of 3,378.92 USD, showing that technical demand still has the ability to push the price to the resistance level of 3,385 USD in the short term.

All eyes are on the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data to be released at the end of the week, as it will help investors better determine the Fed's interest rate policy trend, which will directly affect gold price movements.

Market psychology

The current gold market sentiment reflects doubts about the Fed's ability to continue tightening credit, as after a series of weak jobs and aggregate services data, investors are uncertain about the exact direction of US monetary policy.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) network reports that hedge funds are gradually increasing their net long positions in gold, implying that large traders still believe that gold prices will continue to rise in the medium term.

However, a number of retail investors remain cautious as gold prices hit the technical resistance zone around $3,384–$3,400, corresponding to last month's peak, causing them to wait for clearer signals from US CPI and PMI inflation data.

In addition, geopolitical tensions between the US and China still pose a risk of escalation, especially as both sides are considering new tariff measures, causing money flows to gold as a safe haven asset to increase.

The fear index (VIX) in the US stock market remains high, reflecting risk-off sentiment, contributing to strengthening short-term demand for gold.

Technical analysis

Gold prices are approaching support around $3,370–$3,375_1

On the M15 chart, gold prices are approaching the support level around $3,370–$3,375, coinciding with the downward-sloping Bollinger Band (20,0,2) moving average, indicating that prices may continue to fall if they break through this support.

The middle band of the Bollinger band (MA20 line) is currently around $3,370, while the upper band is around $3,400 and the lower band is around $3,340, showing a relatively narrow range of fluctuations and the possibility of a strong breakout if there is a new macro signal.

The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (IKH) indicator with parameters (9,26,52) on the M15 chart shows that the price is below the kumo cloud, the Tenkan-sen line (fast line) has just crossed below the Kijun-sen line (slow line) around 3,380 USD, sending a short-term sell signal. At the same time, the front kumo cloud is slightly red, implying an important resistance zone around 3,390–3,400 USD, so the sellers still have the upper hand.

The Stochastic indicator (5,3,3) is also below the 50 threshold, close to the oversold zone (below 20), indicating that the selling pressure is strong but not yet too boring, the price is likely to continue to adjust slightly down to find a bottom around 3,365 USD before a technical recovery can appear. If Stochastic falls below 20 and creates a bullish divergence compared to the price, then technical buying pressure may appear, but there is currently no clear sign of this.

Trading Recommendations

Entry: 3.376 USD

Take Profit: 3.360 USD

Stop Loss: 3.385 USD

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The US Dollar lost steam on Wednesday as stronger-than-expected Eurozone PMI data pressured the Greenback.

SELL USDX

Close Time

CLOSED

98.800

Entry Price

87.640

102.500

98.880 -0.070 -0.07%

93.0

Pips

Profit

87.640

97.870

Exit Price

98.800

Entry Price

102.500

The US Dollar retreated on Wednesday, giving up part of Tuesday’s gains as investor sentiment turned cautious ahead of key US economic data. The Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against a basket of major peers, hovered just below the key 100.00 psychological threshold, with downside pressure re-emerging following an unexpectedly strong revision in Eurozone services sector data.

Traders had initially welcomed Tuesday’s JOLTS Job Openings report, which offered a glimmer of hope that the US labor market remains on firm footing. However, that optimism faded quickly as attention shifted to upcoming releases, including the ADP Employment Report and the ISM Services PMI. The results of these reports are expected to provide deeper insight into the underlying strength of the US economy, particularly amid signs of fatigue in manufacturing and persistent trade policy uncertainty under President Trump.

The Eurozone’s surprise data revision, which pushed May’s Services PMI up to 49.7 from an initial estimate of 48.8, provided a moderate lift to the Euro, which in turn weighed on the US Dollar. Though the revised reading remains below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction, it nonetheless suggests the services sector in Europe is proving more resilient than previously thought. This reinforced a mild shift in sentiment that saw the Dollar lose some of its recent appeal as a defensive play.

In the United States, the labor market continues to be a source of stability. Tuesday’s JOLTS report for April showed job openings jumping to 7.39 million, far exceeding forecasts of 7.1 million and up from a revised 7.2 million in March. The report briefly boosted the Dollar, helping the DXY recover some ground following recent weakness driven by disappointing manufacturing figures. However, this positive surprise was countered by a sharp 3.7% monthly decline in factory orders—worse than the expected 3% drop—which underscored the challenges facing the US industrial base. These figures come on the heels of a larger-than-expected contraction in the ISM Manufacturing PMI, highlighting the economic toll of tariffs and global trade disruptions.

Later in the day, the spotlight will turn to the ADP Employment report, which is projected to show a 115,000 increase in private payrolls for May, a notable jump from April’s 62,000. Investors will be watching closely to see whether these numbers confirm the broader narrative of labor market tightness, which has so far helped offset weakness in other areas of the economy. In addition, the ISM Services PMI is expected to show moderate growth, suggesting that the US services sector—responsible for more than two-thirds of GDP—remains relatively healthy.

Political developments are also keeping traders on edge. President Trump’s failure to secure concrete trade deals, despite key deadlines for proposals from major trading partners, has cast a shadow over the market. The lack of clarity on trade policy continues to undermine confidence in the US growth outlook, particularly as tariffs begin to weigh more heavily on business investment and production.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the Dollar Index remains locked in a clear downtrend. The price is drifting near a pivotal level around 99.10 and struggling to sustain a rebound. Resistance is seen near the 99.94 level, with further upside capped at 100.08. Unless the DXY can break decisively above the 102.33 threshold, the prevailing bearish structure is likely to persist. On the downside, the first level of support comes into focus around 98.01. If sellers regain control, deeper targets at 91.83 and even 87.64 remain in play over the medium term.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL DXY

ENTRY PRICE: 98.80

STOP LOSS: 102.50

TAKE PROFIT: 87.64

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Central Bank

Forex

Summary:

The market anticipates the Bank of Canada will hold the policy interest rate steady at 2.75% for the second consecutive meeting today.

SELL USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.36975

Entry Price

1.34700

1.39100

1.38160 +0.00013 +0.01%

40.0

Pips

Loss

1.34700

1.37375

Exit Price

1.36975

Entry Price

1.39100

Fundamentals

The USDCAD traded near its lowest levels since 2023 on Wednesday, approaching the 1.3675 level. Despite a modest recovery on Tuesday, volatility remains subdued, reflecting market caution ahead of today's interest rate decision.

Although Canada's Q1 GDP unexpectedly rose 2.2% annualized, this growth was largely driven by export activity, as U.S. buyers front-ran tariffs on Canadian goods. This one-off boost is unlikely to alter the central bank's dovish stance, given increasing global and domestic uncertainties. Meanwhile, core inflation has rebounded towards the upper bound of the Bank of Canada's 1.00-3.00% target range, supporting a continued pause in rate cuts.

Market expectations for further rate cuts later this year remain firm. A Reuters poll indicates that 75% (17 of 23) of economists anticipate at least two rate cuts in 2025, with two economists projecting as many as four cuts.

Given elevated trade uncertainties, particularly regarding tariffs, the Bank of Canada is likely to maintain a flexible tone in its communications. While rates were held steady today, policymakers are expected to preserve optionality for future rate adjustments, contingent on trade developments.

In the current market context, the Bank of Canada's decision today may not be the primary driver of the USDCAD movements. Instead, market direction will likely be heavily influenced by sentiment surrounding U.S. trade policy.

Focus Turns to Bank of Canada Rate Resolution as Markets Maintain Their Dovish Stance_1

Technical Analysis

Today's market attention centers on the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision. Despite divided market expectations regarding an imminent rate cut, our base case anticipates a hold. Uncertainty persists, given weak economic data and global trade headwinds.

Technically, a sustained rejection at the 1.3860 resistance level in the USDCAD suggests further downside potential, targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.4414 to 1.3749 range, specifically 1.3603. This level may offer some support, halting the decline and initiating a rebound, representing an adjustment to the five-wave decline from the 1.4791 high. A break below this level targets the ultimate objective at 1.3470.

On the upside, a decisive breach of the 1.3860 resistance would indicate a broader correction or consolidation.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.3760

Target Price: 1.3470

Stop Loss: 1.3910

Valid Until: June 19, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 1.3677, 1.3647, 1.3542

Resistance: 1.3743, 1.3750, 1.3862

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Economic

Summary:

The UK's May Composite PMI saw a modest expansion, rebounding due to easing tariff concerns. Japan's final Composite PMI registered at 50.2, indicating a weakening growth momentum. The GBPJPY's decline remained contained, attracting buying interest for a second consecutive day.

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

194.349

Entry Price

198.560

190.600

207.050 -0.050 -0.02%

69.3

Pips

Profit

190.600

195.042

Exit Price

194.349

Entry Price

198.560

Fundamentals

The UK services sector saw a modest rebound in May, with the final PMI Services Index reaching 50.9, up from a 27-month low of 49.0 in April. The Composite PMI also expanded slightly, rising to 50.3 from 48.5.

MARKET WATCH: This recovery was supported by easing concerns over U.S. tariffs, stronger global markets, and improved client confidence. Business confidence for the year ahead climbed to a seven-month high, driven by investment plans and improved sales expectations.

However, the underlying employment market remains weak. Employment in the sector has declined for eight consecutive months, the longest non-COVID-related downturn since the global financial crisis.

Encouragingly, input cost inflation eased from its April peak, while competitive pricing pressures led to the smallest increase in service charges since October.

Japan's private sector exhibited weakness in May, with the final services PMI declining to 51.0 from April's 52.4; the composite PMI fell to 50.2 from 51.2. The data indicates marginal overall economic expansion, a slowdown in services sector growth, and a slight deterioration in manufacturing output.

MARKET WATCH: The growth in new orders "has nearly stalled" due to the slowest services sales growth in six months and persistent declines in factory demand. This deceleration suggests that a near-term rebound in Japan's private sector may be challenging.

Potential concerns are linked to external and structural factors, including an uncertain global demand outlook, persistent labor shortages, and escalating cost pressures.

Economic Divergence between the UK and Japan Favors Its Alternating Upward Movements_1

Technical Analysis

The GBPJPY extended its robust rebound from the 192.75-193.95 range on Wednesday, maintaining positive momentum for a second consecutive day during the Asian session. This bullish sentiment propelled spot prices to fresh intraday highs during the European session, with bulls now eyeing a sustained break above the 196.00 psychological level to initiate further long positions.

From a technical perspective, the GBPJPY's intraday bias remains neutral. Further upside potential is anticipated as long as the 191.86 support level holds. A firm break above 196.38 would signal a resumption of the broader uptrend from 184.35. Conversely, a breach and sustained trading below 191.86 would suggest a near-term reversal, shifting the bias to the downside.