Bulls May Be Preparing Their Move from This Key Zone

Forex

Economic

Summary:

If the pair once again fails to break convincingly below this level, it could set the stage for a bullish reversal from this zone.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.37001

Entry Price

1.40210

1.35000

1.38224 +0.00077 +0.06%

1.0

Pips

Profit

1.35000

1.37011

Exit Price

1.37001

Entry Price

1.40210

Recent developments in U.S.-China relations have introduced a more constructive tone to the geopolitical landscape, as high-level officials—including U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng—met in London for two days of focused dialogue. The talks centered on trade and export controls, with particular attention on the strategic regulation of rare earth minerals. These discussions could have broader implications for global supply chains and trade dynamics going forward.

Meanwhile, the latest release of the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) showed a decline in inflation expectations across the one-, three-, and five-year horizons—generally a positive signal. However, the report also highlighted a concerning shift in household sentiment, with perceptions of both current and future financial conditions weakening, suggesting lingering consumer unease.

In other data, the ISM Services PMI for May fell to 49.9, dropping below the key 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction. This reading, down from 51.6 in April and below the consensus forecast of 52, reflects a slight contraction in the services sector—a critical component of the U.S. economy.

A deeper look into the report revealed a sharp increase in the Prices Paid Index, which jumped to 68.7 from 65.1, indicating persistent inflationary pressure. On the labor front, the Employment Index ticked up to 50.7 from 49, pointing to a degree of resilience in service-sector hiring.

Amid these mixed signals, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reiterated the central bank’s cautious approach, warning of increased downside risks tied to former President Donald Trump’s more aggressive stance on tariffs. These evolving trade policies, he emphasized, are now a part of the Fed’s broader risk assessment due to their potential impact on economic stability.

Fed Governor Lisa D. Cook also struck a cautious tone, emphasizing that while the broader U.S. economy remains relatively stable, the rising threat of trade frictions could undermine longer-term growth prospects.

Across the Atlantic, reports suggest that Prime Minister Carney is preparing to announce a significant increase in defense spending, aiming to meet NATO’s 2% of GDP target in the current fiscal year—up from the current 1.4%. Additional increases are expected in the years ahead. Behind the scenes, sources indicate that PM Carney is also quietly negotiating a potential trade and security agreement with President Trump, which could reshape bilateral economic ties if finalized.

On the commodities front, rising crude oil prices may offer support to the commodity-linked Canadian dollar (CAD). Given that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the U.S., higher crude prices often act as a tailwind for the CAD, potentially weighing on the USD/CAD pair in the process. Bulls May Be Preparing Their Move from This Key Zone_1

Bulls May Be Preparing Their Move from This Key Zone_1

Technical Analysis

USD/CAD recently revisited its local low at 1.3638—a level previously marked by a notable upward wick on September 19 of last year. The repeated touch of this price point may signal a strong buying interest in the area. If the pair once again fails to break convincingly below this level, it could set the stage for a bullish reversal from this zone.

The 100-period and 200-period moving averages currently reside at 1.4103 and 1.4025, respectively, offering medium-term upside targets if bullish momentum begins to build. The setup provides room for a recovery toward the 1.40–1.41 zone, which also overlaps with a region of previous resistance.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has once again dipped to around 32, approaching oversold territory. Historically, these levels often attract buyers, especially when the price is pressing downward. With no decisive bearish follow-through at this stage, the lack of downside conviction could pave the way for a potential rebound toward the 1.40 mark—near the 200-period moving average, which has previously acted as a strong technical barrier.

If bulls manage to defend the current support and gain traction, a constructive rally may unfold. Conversely, a clear break below the 1.3638 level could shift momentum back in favor of the bears, opening the door to further declines.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3697

Target price: 1.4021

Stop loss: 1.3500

Validity: Jun 20, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

The Japanese yen strengthened against most major currencies, causing GBPJPY to retreat toward 195.65 on Monday. Revised data showed Japan’s economy held steady in Q1. Investors are now awaiting UK labor market data for fresh clues on the Bank of England's monetary policy outlook.

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

194.799

Entry Price

199.810

192.500

206.907 -0.193 -0.09%

36.8

Pips

Profit

192.500

195.167

Exit Price

194.799

Entry Price

199.810

Fundamentals

During the European trading session on Monday, GBPJPY pulled back from an intraday high of 196.00 to around 195.65. The yen gained modestly after Japan’s revised Q1 GDP figures indicated economic stability, exerting light selling pressure on the pound-yen pair.

Initial estimates showed Japan's economy contracted by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter on an annualized basis — a smaller decline than the previous estimate of 0.7%.

According to Japan's Cabinet Office, the upward revision in Q1 GDP was driven primarily by stronger private consumption, which accounts for more than half of the nation’s economic activity. Household spending rose by 0.1%, compared to a flat reading in the preliminary report.

Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba warned that rate hikes by the Bank of Japan could place strain on the government’s spending plans, as higher borrowing costs may lead to increased financing expenses. Concerns in Tokyo over rising debt servicing costs could prompt traders to scale back bets on further rate hikes by the BOJ this year.

In the UK, investors are awaiting the employment report for the three months ending in April, due Tuesday. The labor market report is expected to show the ILO unemployment rate ticking up to 4.6% from the previous 4.5%. Average earnings, both including and excluding bonuses, are projected to grow by 5.5% year-on-year.

Investors will closely monitor this week’s UK labor market data, which could reshape expectations for the Bank of England’s policy trajectory. The BoE is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.25% at its next policy meeting on June 19.

Bulls Poised to Regain Momentum Amid Highlight Shifting to Monetary Policy_1

Technical Analysis

GBPJPY maintains a neutral intraday stance for now. As long as the 191.86 support level holds, further gains remain in view. A break above 196.38 would resume the rally from 184.35 toward the key resistance zone at 199.79, with the next major upside target at 204.14 — representing the 100% Fibonacci extension of the 180.00–199.79 move.

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Long

Entry Price: 194.80

Target Price: 199.81

Stop Loss: 192.50

Valid Until: June 24, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 194.22/193.75/193.21

Resistance Levels: 196.31/196.48/197.17

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

USD/CAD retreats as markets digest robust U.S. payrolls and refocus on US-China trade negotiations, while Canadian jobless data triggers loonie softness.

SELL USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.36700

Entry Price

1.36000

1.37100

1.38224 +0.00077 +0.06%

42.3

Pips

Profit

1.36000

1.36277

Exit Price

1.36700

Entry Price

1.37100

The USD/CAD pair fell broadly on Monday, reversing some of Friday’s sharp post-payroll gains as investors reassessed the strength of the U.S. labour market and turned their attention to a renewed round of U.S.-China trade talks taking place in London. While the tone in global markets remains cautiously optimistic, traders appear to be rotating out of the U.S. Dollar following its recent rally, amid growing questions over the sustainability of economic strength and Federal Reserve policy direction.

After Friday’s blockbuster Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report propelled the greenback higher across the board, Monday's price action reflected a natural pause. Market participants are now looking for the next major catalyst, and the rekindled dialogue between the United States and China is taking center stage. Trade envoys from both nations are convening in London in a bid to revive the momentum established during last month’s Geneva summit, which resulted in a notable rollback of reciprocal tariffs and was hailed as a step toward de-escalation.

While headlines around trade have turned marginally positive, the broader mood remains cautious. The recent history of back-and-forth tariff policy and fragile trust has left traders wary. As such, any sign of friction could swiftly tilt sentiment, especially with the U.S. election cycle drawing closer and global supply chain vulnerabilities still top of mind.

The U.S. Dollar surged on Friday after the May NFP report showed a stronger-than-expected 139,000 jobs added, well above the 130,000 consensus forecast. While the data wasn’t explosive, it was sufficient to counteract the gloom from weaker ISM services and manufacturing figures earlier in the week, as well as a disappointing ADP report.

The Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings remained firm with a 3.7% year-over-year increase. Together, the figures painted a picture of a labour market that, while slowing, remains resilient. Crucially, they aligned with the Federal Reserve’s messaging that no immediate rate cuts are on the horizon.

This data undermined rate cut bets, lifting short-term yields and boosting the dollar on Friday. But as the week begins, investors seem to be reassessing just how much runway the greenback has, especially in light of ongoing geopolitical and trade risks.

Across the border, Canada’s own labour market data painted a more complex picture. The economy added a net 8.8K jobs in May, following a 7.4K job loss in April, and handily beating expectations for a 15K drop. However, the surprise increase in employment was overshadowed by a disappointing uptick in the Unemployment Rate, which climbed to 7.0%—the highest since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The rise in joblessness, despite the headline beat, reflects deeper structural challenges in the Canadian economy, including regional disparities in job creation and lingering weakness in sectors like manufacturing and energy. Unsurprisingly, the loonie gave back some gains after the data, with markets doubting whether this print was strong enough to change the Bank of Canada’s cautious stance.

Technical Analysis

Technically, USD/CAD remains capped below the 1.3690 resistance level—a critical ceiling the pair has failed to decisively break in recent sessions. The short-term trend remains bearish, underpinned by sustained pressure below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which continues to exert downward momentum.

Furthermore, the pair’s recent rejection near overbought levels on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests waning bullish momentum. The presence of a minor descending trendline adds further downside pressure, with bears eyeing a potential test of support near 1.3600 if sentiment remains cautious and oil prices firm—often supportive of the Canadian Dollar.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL USDCAD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3670

STOP LOSS: 1.3710

TAKE PROFIT: 1.3600

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

Mixed fundamentals are driving wide fluctuations in gold prices. Given gold’s historically bearish performance in June, the short-term outlook remains neutral to bearish.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3348.00

Entry Price

3215.00

3376.00

4209.11 +11.20 +0.27%

254.7

Pips

Profit

3215.00

3322.53

Exit Price

3348.00

Entry Price

3376.00

Fundamentals

Gold prices staged a modest rebound on Monday, paring losses from the near 2% sell-off over the previous two trading sessions.

Last week, gold’s rally lost momentum and reversed sharply after briefly testing the $3,400 level. A key factor behind the decline was the easing of U.S.-China trade tensions following the first phone call between their leaders.

However, deteriorating macroeconomic conditions failed to lift gold prices. A string of weak economic indicators last week pointed to a slowdown in U.S. economic growth, further strengthening expectations of over 50 basis points in Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Key data showed that U.S. nonfarm payrolls for May (seasonally adjusted) increased by 139,000—the lowest reading since February. While above the market forecast of 130,000, it fell significantly short of the average final value of 200,000. The early impacts of President Trump’s global trade war appear to be manifesting in the labor market, manufacturing, consumer spending, and the broader service sector.

The failure of these bearish macro signals to boost gold prices is likely due to technical reasons. Despite a previous breakout from a triangle consolidation and a developing inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, gold still failed to sustain its upward trajectory—something worth cautioning against.

Another critical observation: Over the past several years, gold prices have typically posted a bearish candlestick on the monthly chart in June. If this seasonal pattern persists, the recent strength in gold may be inconsistent with broader market behavior.

From a fundamental perspective, after months of declining inflation indicators, investors are hoping the Fed will not hesitate to cut rates should the economy falter. However, there are also arguments for maintaining the current policy stance, at least until after the July 9 reciprocal tariff deadline, by which time a clearer trade agreement might emerge.

Since inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, policymakers may be reluctant to lower borrowing costs prematurely—especially with the possibility of renewed trade tensions.

This Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report for May will test the rising optimism over potential rate cuts, as it may indicate whether the recent disinflationary trend has stalled. According to the Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast model, the headline CPI is expected to rise 2.4% YoY in May, up from April’s 2.3%, while the core CPI is forecast to remain steady at a 2.8% YoY pace.

Will Gold’s Historical Bearish Pattern in June Persist This Year?_1

Technical Analysis

After last week’s sharp retreat, gold started the week on a weak note, facing a third consecutive day of selling pressure following a false breakout above a bullish pennant pattern.

Momentum indicators suggest ongoing weakness. The stochastic oscillator is declining steeply but has yet to enter oversold territory, while the RSI remains slightly above the 50 mark. This neutral-to-bearish setup is clearly reflected in the price action.

In line with historical patterns, the strategy remains to sell on rallies.

Trade Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 3348

Target Price: 3215

Stop Loss: 3376

Valid Until: June 24, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 3294/3272/3245

Resistance: 3333/3346/3350

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The British Pound rose modestly on Friday, supported by upbeat UK GDP data and dovish-leaning commentary from Bank of England’s Greene.

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.35600

Entry Price

1.37000

1.35000

1.33406 +0.00094 +0.07%

60.0

Pips

Loss

1.35000

1.34998

Exit Price

1.35600

Entry Price

1.37000

The British Pound remained marginally higher against the US Dollar during Friday's North American session, as investors digested a confluence of economic and geopolitical developments that have the potential to recalibrate central bank expectations and currency flows in the coming weeks.

Sterling initially touched a session high of 1.3581 before retracing slightly to trade around 1.3532 by the New York close, registering a mild 0.05% gain on the day. The move reflected cautious optimism following a report by The Wall Street Journal indicating that US President Donald Trump is granting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent the authority to adjust technology export controls imposed on China. The development hints at a possible thaw in the ongoing trade standoff between the world’s two largest economies, a key geopolitical risk that has weighed heavily on market sentiment in recent months.

On the domestic front, the Pound drew support from stronger-than-expected UK economic data. Preliminary estimates for first-quarter 2025 GDP came in above consensus, highlighting the UK economy's resilience in the face of tightening monetary conditions and sluggish global demand. The positive data suggests the British economy may be more robust than previously anticipated, offering the BoE some breathing room as it charts the course for future interest rate policy.

Adding to the bullish case for the Pound was commentary from BoE Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene. Speaking on Friday, Greene noted that the disinflation process in the UK is progressing, with inflation expected to trend toward the central bank's 2% target over the medium term. Her remarks—although measured—were interpreted by markets as an early sign that the BoE may not be far from a potential policy pivot, particularly if inflation continues to ease in line with projections.

Across the Atlantic, US non-farm payrolls surprised to the upside, with 139,000 jobs added in May—beating economist expectations of 130,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, reinforcing the narrative of a labor market that remains sturdy despite persistent headwinds from high interest rates and elevated inflation. However, underlying softness in wage growth and hours worked continues to signal that the broader economy is decelerating, albeit gradually.

This data set, while stronger than forecast, is unlikely to dramatically shift the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance in the near term. Market participants continue to expect the Fed to hold rates steady at its upcoming meeting, with rate cuts potentially on the table later in 2025 should inflation ease further and growth slow meaningfully.

Arguably the most market-sensitive headline of the day came not from an economic release, but from the geopolitical arena. According to reporting by The Wall Street Journal, President Trump is offering Treasury Secretary Bessent increased discretion over the administration's export control policy, particularly with regard to tech sales to China. This could mark a significant softening of Washington’s stance on Beijing, potentially reducing the risk of further escalation in the trade conflict that has plagued global markets.

Investors interpreted the news as a sign that the Trump administration may be seeking a more pragmatic approach ahead of the 2025 presidential election cycle, especially given rising concerns about inflation and global supply chain fragility. Equity markets reacted with cautious optimism, although major US indexes still closed the day in negative territory, weighed down by lingering uncertainties.

Next week promises to be a critical one for Sterling traders. On the UK side, upcoming government spending plans, BRC Retail Sales Monitor, labor market data, and trade balance figures will provide fresh insight into the strength of the economic recovery. These prints could significantly influence the BoE’s tone in upcoming communications, particularly if data surprises again to the upside.

In the US, the focus shifts to inflation metrics, with May CPI and PPI due midweek. Also on the docket are jobless claims and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey, which could offer more color on consumer confidence heading into the summer.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is trading just below the key resistance zone around 1.3585. The pair has managed to find short-term support at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), reinforcing the prevailing bullish trend structure. A developing positive divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI)—especially after entering oversold territory—indicates that momentum may be building for a potential upside breakout.

Should the pair breach 1.3585 with sustained buying volume, it could pave the way for a rally toward 1.3660 and possibly beyond. Conversely, a failure to hold above 1.3500 would raise the risk of a near-term retracement, particularly if US inflation data surprises to the upside and revives hawkish Fed bets.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GBPUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3560

STOP LOSS: 1.3500

TAKE PROFIT: 1.3700

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Central Bank

Summary:

The New Zealand Dollar climbs to near year-to-date highs, fueled by optimism ahead of high-stakes US-China trade talks in London. The US Dollar softens as the post-payrolls rally fades despite strong labor data.

BUY NZDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.60400

Entry Price

0.61500

0.60000

0.57854 +0.00100 +0.17%

16.4

Pips

Profit

0.60000

0.60564

Exit Price

0.60400

Entry Price

0.61500

The New Zealand Dollar surged on Monday, outperforming all major currencies as global risk sentiment improved ahead of a crucial meeting between US and Chinese trade officials in London. NZD/USD rose nearly 0.7% intraday, testing the 0.6080 level—its highest since the start of the year—as markets priced in growing optimism that the meeting could yield a breakthrough, or at the very least, a signal of renewed cooperation.

The rally in the Kiwi was mirrored by strength in other risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian Dollar, both of which are widely seen as proxies for Chinese economic activity. Investor confidence was boosted by a weekend social media post from US President Donald Trump, who indicated progress in trade discussions, fueling hopes of easing tensions between the world's two largest economies.

The stakes are high for the talks in London, with markets increasingly attuned to any signals that could help clarify the path of global trade policy. A constructive outcome could not only support commodity-linked currencies but also inject fresh momentum into emerging markets and risk assets more broadly.

While risk currencies gained traction, the US Dollar pulled back after a brief rally on Friday that followed the release of stronger-than-expected labor market data. The Dollar Index (DXY) declined on Monday as investors began to shift their attention from domestic fundamentals to geopolitical developments.

Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report showed that the US economy added 139,000 jobs in May, beating the market consensus of 130,000. Average hourly earnings grew by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing expectations of 3.7%, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. The report momentarily bolstered the greenback, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and easing recession concerns.

However, despite the robust labor data, traders appeared reluctant to chase the Dollar higher. The retracement suggests markets are placing more weight on external risks, particularly the outcome of the US-China meeting and its implications for global growth and trade stability.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, NZD/USD has entered a bullish phase, clearing the important resistance level at 0.6025. The pair remains supported by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), with momentum indicators pointing toward further gains. A developing bullish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), following a period of oversold conditions, further strengthens the case for a sustained upward move.

The price structure shows a potential inverse head-and-shoulders formation, which, while not textbook in shape, indicates the potential for a medium-term trend reversal. The upside target remains around the 0.6150 zone, provided that price action holds above the 0.6025 support and continues to benefit from improving sentiment.

As long as NZD/USD trades above the rising trendline on the daily chart, the bullish bias remains intact. A daily close above 0.6080 would likely accelerate the move toward the next key resistance at 0.6150, while a failure to hold current levels could see the pair retrace toward the 0.6000 handle.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY NZDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6040

STOP LOSS: 0.6000

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6150

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Affected by profit-taking, Bitcoin has recently pulled back from $112,000 to a low of $100,400. It has since rebounded but remains below the $107,000 resistance level, with upward pressure intensifying in the short term.

SELL BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

105925.2

Entry Price

101000.0

109000.0

91102.7 +1547.9 +1.73%

3074.8

Pips

Loss

101000.0

109000.0

Exit Price

105925.2

Entry Price

109000.0

Fundamentals

On June 9th, Bitcoin held steady above $105,000, and the market closely monitors the impact of key U.S. economic data and global macro events this week.

On one hand, the U.S. is set to release May CPI data on Wednesday. If inflation rises unexpectedly, the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, keeping the U.S. dollar resilient and pressuring USD-priced-in Bitcoin.

On the other hand, high-level China-U.S. trade talks resumed on June 9th. Substantial progress in negotiations could boost risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Additionally, major financial institutions fail to provide substantial updates on the approval progress of Bitcoin ETFs. In the short term, institutional entry may continue to slow, with significant speculative profit-taking pressure.

Overall, a stronger U.S. dollar and regulatory uncertainty pose short-term headwinds, while China-U.S. trade talks and expectations for downstream ETFs are adding divergence to the market.

Technical Analysis

Rebound after Exhausted? Bears Eyeing the 100,000 Level_1

Based on the daily chart, Bitcoin came under pressure and pulled back after hitting a high of $112,000 at the end of May. It accelerated its decline to $100,400 on June 6th before quickly rebounding, indicating some support. Currently, Bitcoin rebounds but remains below the $107,000 resistance level. Consecutive bearish candles on the 4-hour chart suggest significant upward resistance at this level. If the weakening continues, Bitcoin may test the $100,400 support level downward in the short term.

Now, Bitcoin has encountered selling pressure during two consecutive rebounds near $107,000, failing to break through the resistance zone formed by the earlier decline. The likelihood of a short-term downward pullback is high, and the $105,000 level provides temporary support. If Bitcoin breaks below this level, it may test the $100,400 support level further.