With the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by a total of 25 basis points, all eyes are focused on the economic forecast summary, the so-called chart, and the remarks of Chairman Jerome Powell to determine whether the US central bank will cut interest rates more than twice this year. Influenced by weak August labor data and persistently high inflation, calls for the Fed to adopt aggressive easing measures are growing, sparking concerns about stagflation in the US economy. According to Refinitiv's interest rate probabilities, the market is anticipating a total of 67.9 basis points in rate cuts by the end of this year. Influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy statement, the price of non-yielding gold is expected to experience significant volatility. If the Fed confirms recent dovish expectations, specifically three interest rate cuts by the end of the year, the price of gold is likely to reach new all-time highs. Conversely, if the chart indicates Fed officials are maintaining the prospect of two interest rate cuts, or if Powell's remarks sound less dovish, the dollar could gain new momentum, triggering a new round of correction in gold. In summary, gold's fate hinges on the Fed's decision and its future interest rate trajectory. Meanwhile, traders will continue to liquidate long positions in gold, though bargain-hunting may emerge at lower levels.

The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut of the year amid intense political pressure and economic uncertainty. The 25-basis-point reduction sent the dollar tumbling to multi-month lows against major currencies, with the dollar index dipping below 97.00. While the Fed cited labor market weakness as justification for easing policy, persistent inflation concerns and tariff-driven price pressures create a complex backdrop for future policy decisions. Market expectations point to further rate cuts by year-end, suggesting the dollar's strength remains constrained. While the Fed pledged to adjust policy based on data, this leaves room for a potential shift in monetary policy direction.

From the 4-hour chart, gold broke the upper band of the Bollinger Bands and hit a new all-time high before pulling back under pressure. It is currently finding support near the EMA12, forming a consolidation pattern. The MACD line and signal line have formed a death cross signal, and the rising momentum bar is gradually weakening, indicating a top divergence signal. The RSI reading is 58, suggesting the market remains bullish but is entering a wait-and-see sentiment. If gold can consistently hold above the EMA12, it is likely to surge toward 3700 or even 4000. If it fails to hold, it may decline to the EMA50 or even the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, with prices at 3632 and 3613, respectively. From the weekly chart, the price broke above the upper boundary of the triangular consolidation pattern and has been rising strongly along the upper Bollinger Band. Currently, the Bollinger Bands are expanding upward, the moving averages are diverging higher, and the MACD has formed a golden cross pattern. The RSI reading of 73 has entered the overbought zone, suggesting a potential pullback at any time. Overall, the price may retest the upper edge of the triangle before breaking upward again. However, as long as it does not fall below the EMA12, the upward trend remains intact. For the strategy, it is recommended to go long at lows.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 3635

Target price: 3900

Stop loss: 3550

Support: 3600, 3550, 3400

Resistance: 3700, 3800, 3900

The latest U.S. retail sales report signaled stronger-than-expected consumer spending in August, easing recession fears and suggesting that household demand remains resilient. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month in August, beating market expectations of a 0.2% increase. July’s figure was also revised higher to 0.6% from the initially reported 0.5%, underscoring a firm consumption momentum heading into the third quarter.

In a narrow 48-47 vote, Stephen Miran, a senior economic adviser to President Trump, was confirmed to the Federal Reserve Board on Monday. This week’s Fed meeting, which began on Tuesday, will be Miran’s first as a member of the Board. Fed Governor Lisa Cook will also attend after the U.S. Court of Appeals denied the White House’s request to block her participation.

Markets are widely anticipating a rate cut in September, followed by two additional cuts before year-end. Traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming press conference, as well as the updated “dot plot,” which outlines policymakers’ projections for future interest rates.

President Trump has ramped up pressure on the Fed ahead of Wednesday’s decision, urging Powell on Truth Social to deliver a larger-than-expected rate cut. Trump argued that a bolder move is long overdue and would give a strong boost to the housing market.

Last week, U.S. CPI inflation ticked higher again in August, with headline CPI climbing to 2.9% year-over-year while core CPI held steady at 3.1%. The recent relief from falling gasoline prices has been offset by renewed price pressures in housing and food, while prices for consumer goods such as electronics and clothing are also edging higher as Trump-era tariffs gradually filter through to consumers.

Meanwhile, Canada’s Ivey PMI dropped sharply from a robust 55.8 in July to 50.1 in August, hovering just above the stagnation threshold and signaling a pronounced slowdown in economic activity. This deterioration has heightened concerns about the durability of Canada’s economy and raised the likelihood of a dovish shift from the Bank of Canada (BoC).

Canada’s August CPI figures came in broadly in line with expectations, which has further cleared the way for a potential BoC rate cut. Markets now widely expect the BoC to lower its policy rate to 2.5% in an effort to support a slowing economy and a rapidly softening labor market, while likely signaling that further easing could follow later this year.

USDCAD has staged a steep pullback and is now approaching support near 1.3723. This zone has provided bullish reactions on two separate occasions, establishing it as a key local support. If the pair can hold this area decisively once again, it could serve as the foundation for a new bullish leg targeting 1.3830—the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. A clear break above that level could open the door for a move toward the descending trendline that has capped price action in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, the RSI on the 4-hour chart has dropped to 22, well into oversold territory, which could attract dip buyers looking to enter long positions at discounted levels. The 100- and 200-period moving averages are clustered around 1.3805 and 1.3804, and this close alignment often signals range-bound price behavior. This setup suggests two possible paths: price may rebound and reestablish its position within the range, or it could break decisively below support, paving the way for a deeper correction.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3720

Target price: 1.3830

Stop loss: 1.3670

Validity: Sep 26, 2025 15:00:00

BitMine, the Ethereum-focused treasury firm chaired by Tom Lee, reported on Monday that its combined cryptocurrency and cash reserves have reached an impressive $10.8 billion. The company, already recognized as the largest institutional holder of Ethereum worldwide, announced another major crypto purchase as it advances toward its ambitious goal of controlling 5% of the circulating ETH supply.

According to several reports, BitMine disclosed in its latest update that it had purchased approximately 82,233 ETH (worth around $370 million) since September 8, in line with transactions noted by analysts last week. With this acquisition, the firm has increased its holdings to 2,151,676 ETH valued at roughly $9.75 billion, alongside 192 BTC (around $22.1 million), a $214 million stake in the treasury firm WLD Eightco, and $569 million in uncommitted cash reserves.

Meanwhile, PayPal has introduced a new feature called PayPal Links, designed to simplify peer-to-peer payments, including cryptocurrency transfers. Announced in a press release on Monday, PayPal Links is initially available in the U.S. and is expected to roll out to the U.K., Italy, and other countries later in September.

The company is positioning the tool as a simpler alternative to services like Zelle or CashApp, and as a complement to Venmo. “It lets your money follow your conversations,” said Diego Scotti, General Manager of the Consumer Group. A key point highlighted by ZDNET is that PayPal plans to integrate cryptocurrency support directly into the Links feature.

Soon, users in the U.S. will be able to quickly send Bitcoin, Ethereum, PYUSD, and other cryptocurrencies to PayPal, Venmo, and other compatible digital wallets. PayPal will also allow senders to choose the currency when creating a link, making it easier to transfer funds to recipients in over 110 countries. This combination of crypto compatibility and global reach aims to expand payment options for both traditional users and those operating with digital assets.

In other developments, the Ethereum Foundation announced on Tuesday a major security audit contest with a prize pool of up to $2 million to ensure the safety of its upcoming “Fusaka” network upgrade, scheduled for release on the mainnet by the end of 2025.

The contest, which began on September 15 and runs until October 13, is organized by the security platform Sherlock with additional support from Gnosis ($100,000) and Lido ($25,000). The goal is to invite security experts to thoroughly review the Fusaka code to detect any potential bugs or vulnerabilities before they can impact the network. Valid findings will be compiled into an official report.

To encourage participation, the Ethereum Foundation will award a 2x points multiplier for valid bugs reported during the first week and a 1.5x multiplier for those found in the second week, adding extra incentive to contribute early.

ETH has pulled back toward the 4,423 area, where the 100- and 200-period moving averages on the 4-hour chart are currently converging around 4,422 and 4,444. These levels have previously provided strong bullish reactions, and recent candles have shown upward momentum from this zone. This area also aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting it could mark the end of the current downside correction and serve as a springboard for another leg higher toward the next resistance at 4,864.

Meanwhile, the RSI has dipped to 38, approaching oversold territory without fully entering it. Importantly, price is also nearing its ascending trendline. If this area holds and sellers fail to break it decisively to the downside, the broader bullish structure could remain intact, allowing upside momentum to persist. However, a clear breakdown below this confluence zone could trigger a deeper correction in ETH amid the heightened volatility expected in the days ahead.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 4494

Target price: 4860

Stop loss: 4100

Validity: Sep 26, 2025 15:00:00

The Pound Sterling (GBP) gained traction against major currencies on Tuesday, reaching its highest levels against the US Dollar in over two months, as investors digested fresh labor market data from the United Kingdom. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.7% in the three months ending July, a four-year high but in line with market expectations.

Employment growth in the UK continued to show resilience, with the economy adding 232,000 jobs in the quarter, closely matching forecasts of 220,000 and slightly below the previous quarter’s tally of 239,000. The labor market’s underlying strength was further reflected in wage growth. Average earnings excluding bonuses, a key gauge of wage inflation, rose 4.8% annually, consistent with forecasts yet slower than the 5% pace observed previously. Average earnings including bonuses—a metric closely monitored by the Bank of England (BoE)—increased 4.7%, slightly above the prior reading of 4.6%, signaling a stable but moderate acceleration in compensation pressures.

These figures provide a nuanced picture for policymakers. Steady employment conditions may offer some comfort to the BoE, which has expressed concerns over potential labor market weakness. Earlier this month, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey noted that he was “more concerned about downside job risks” than some members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), who in August opted to maintain the policy rate. The resilience in the labor market could reduce the urgency for immediate monetary tightening, though inflationary pressures remain a key concern.

Financial markets are bracing for a potentially volatile week for the Pound. Investors are awaiting the release of the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August on Wednesday and the BoE’s monetary policy decision on Thursday. Economists expect headline inflation to rise slightly to 3.9% from 3.8% year-on-year. Any acceleration in inflation could reinforce expectations that the BoE will hold interest rates steady at 4% in its upcoming policy review, while subdued inflation might rekindle speculation of a future rate adjustment.

On the technical front, GBP/USD confirmed bullish momentum during intraday trading, breaking past the critical resistance level at 1.3585. The pair remains supported above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50), indicating that short-term upward trends are intact. A key resistance zone between 1.36326 and 1.35700 has now shifted to become support, setting the stage for further gains.

However, relative strength indicators suggest caution in the short term. After entering overbought territory, some negative overlapping signals appeared, prompting minor corrective trading. Despite this, the broader bias remains bullish, with potential upside targeting 1.3750 in the near term.

BUY GBPUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3660

STOP LOSS: 1.3540

TAKE PROFIT: 1.3750

The Australian dollar was trading firmly near its Monday peak at 0.6670 against the U.S. dollar during the European session on Tuesday, with momentum pointing to further upside as markets priced in aggressive expectations of Federal Reserve policy easing. The move underscores a growing narrative in global FX markets: that the U.S. central bank has reached the end of its tightening cycle and is now preparing to unwind its restrictive monetary stance.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback’s performance against six major peers, slumped to a fresh seven-week low around 97.00 at press time. Traders have been quick to trim dollar exposure ahead of Wednesday’s highly anticipated Fed policy decision. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is now a 96% probability that the Fed will lower rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, with a growing minority anticipating a more aggressive 50-basis point cut.

This dovish shift has been largely driven by weakening labor market indicators in the U.S., exacerbated by the effects of tariffs imposed under President Donald Trump’s trade strategy. In recent weeks, several Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have openly flagged the risks of a slowing jobs market, signaling that employment concerns now outweigh inflation fears. Powell’s comments in particular have reinforced investor confidence that the Fed is ready to act decisively to support growth.

Market focus now turns to incoming U.S. retail sales data for August, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT. Retail sales are forecast to have grown by a modest 0.2%, reflecting resilient but cooling consumer demand. A softer reading would add further weight to the case for deeper Fed cuts, while a stronger surprise could temporarily stall dollar weakness.

On the other side of the equation, the Australian dollar faces its own set of domestic data risks. Traders are awaiting Australia’s August employment report, due on Thursday. Economists expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.2%, with a net gain of around 21,200 jobs, down slightly from the previous month’s 24,500. Given the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cautious stance on growth and inflation, the data could provide a fresh directional cue for the currency.

From a technical perspective, AUD/USD continues to display strong bullish momentum. The pair is testing the 0.6670–0.6680 resistance zone, a level that has capped gains in recent sessions. Price action remains comfortably above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50), while the broader structure shows the pair respecting its ascending trendline. Additional support is drawn from the EMA 34/89 combination, which reinforces the bullish bias.

Momentum indicators are also flashing encouraging signals. Relative strength measures suggest that buyers remain firmly in control, with upside potential intact as long as the pair sustains above the trendline. A clean break above 0.6680 could open the door toward higher targets, potentially retesting 0.6720 and beyond, while failure to clear resistance may trigger short-term consolidation.

BUY AUDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6670

STOP LOSS: 0.6630

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6720

The euro strengthened further against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, climbing to levels not seen since early July after a surprise improvement in German economic sentiment lifted confidence across European markets. The single currency briefly reached 1.1818 before easing back toward the 1.1800 area ahead of the opening of the U.S. session. The move builds on momentum seen in recent weeks, as the euro continues to recover from its late-summer weakness, which was driven by concerns over slowing eurozone growth and rising fiscal strains in France.

Data from the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) revealed that investor expectations for Germany’s economic outlook improved in September, defying consensus forecasts for another deterioration. While the assessment of current conditions slipped for the second consecutive month, the jump in forward-looking sentiment suggests that investors are positioning for stabilization in Europe’s largest economy. The broader eurozone sentiment index also showed a brighter reading after a steep decline in August, offering some relief to policymakers in Frankfurt who have struggled to instill confidence in the bloc’s uneven recovery.

The improvement in sentiment helped offset the negative headlines surrounding France’s debt load and ongoing fiscal debates within the European Union. For investors, the data provided a reason to step back into the euro at a time when the dollar is under pressure from shifting expectations about U.S. monetary policy.

The greenback has been sliding as markets prepare for the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday. Traders increasingly expect not just a rate cut, but also a dovish signal that could pave the way for further easing later this year. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the dollar against six major peers, slipped to its lowest levels in nearly two months. Meanwhile, Wall Street equities climbed to fresh record highs as the prospect of lower borrowing costs boosted risk appetite and overshadowed concerns about slowing growth.

Attention later in the day will shift to U.S. retail sales data for August. Economists expect consumption to have cooled, largely because of weaker demand for automobiles. Should the report confirm a slowdown, it would add further pressure on the Fed to act and likely keep the dollar on the back foot. On the other hand, a stronger outcome could temporarily arrest the dollar’s slide, although the broader bias remains tilted against the greenback.

From a technical perspective, the euro-dollar pair continues to display strong upward momentum. The rally pushed the exchange rate above the important resistance level of 1.1785, which had capped gains in recent weeks. This breakout is supported by price action remaining comfortably above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average, reinforcing the bullish structure. Trading has also followed an upward-sloping bias line, adding weight to the case for further gains. However, oscillators and relative strength indicators are beginning to show early signs of negative divergence, suggesting that while the uptrend remains intact, some moderation or short-term pullback cannot be ruled out.

The 1.1700 level remains a crucial floor from recent consolidation, and as long as the pair holds above it, the bullish view remains valid. A sustained rebound from that area would confirm ongoing upside momentum and keep the market focused on further advances. The next areas of interest on the upside are 1.1846, which represents immediate resistance, followed by the psychological barrier at 1.1900, where traders may begin to take profits. Should the momentum extend beyond that threshold, the longer-term target near 1.1933 comes into play.

BUY EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.1810

STOP LOSS: 1.1750

TAKE PROFIT: 1.1900