Bullish Momentum Poised To Resume At Critical Technical Support Zone

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

This confluence of indicators is expected to serve as a powerful technical catalyst, potentially propelling the pair back toward the 1.1987 resistance target.

BUY EURUSD

EXP

TRADING

1.18241

Entry Price

1.19870

1.16700

1.18181 +0.00006 +0.01%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1.16700

Exit Price

1.18241

Entry Price

1.19870

Geopolitical shifts continue to dictate market sentiment as U.S. President Donald Trump announced a significant trade agreement with India, slated to reduce tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from the current 50%. Simultaneously, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signaled a willingness to commence nuclear negotiations with the U.S., a development that has marginally eased regional tensions and provided underlying support for the U.S. Dollar.

Despite this diplomatic opening, friction in the Middle East remains acute. The U.S. military recently intercepted an Iranian drone approaching the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea, an incident that comes as the Trump administration weighs potential military responses against Tehran. Diplomacy remains fragile, as Iran has requested that upcoming talks take place in Oman rather than Turkey, insisting on a strictly bilateral scope focused solely on nuclear issues. On the macroeconomic front, the Greenback found further support from a stronger-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI, which helped offset anxieties regarding a partial government shutdown that may delay Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

Regarding U.S. monetary policy, the nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as a potential future Chair has moderated concerns over central bank independence. Investors largely view Warsh as a seasoned institutional figure. However, a divide persists within the current Committee: Governor Christopher Waller recently advocated for a 25-basis point cut, arguing policy is overly restrictive, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic urged caution, demanding clearer evidence of inflation moving sustainably toward the 2% target.

Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to maintain the deposit facility rate at 2%. Eurozone inflation continues to hover near the institution's target, with a projected deceleration in headline figures largely attributed to transitory energy-related base effects. Market participants are now focused on Wednesday’s preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for January.

The consensus expects headline inflation to moderate to 1.7%, while core inflation is projected to remain stable at 2.3%. Furthermore, Martin Kocher, Governor of the Austrian Central Bank, recently noted that a persistently strong Euro could necessitate a monetary policy adjustment to counter its deflationary effects, a sentiment that has slightly increased the market's long-term easing expectations. Bullish Momentum Poised To Resume At Critical Technical Support Zone_1

Bullish Momentum Poised To Resume At Critical Technical Support Zone_1

Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair has completed a technical correction, effectively closing the bullish gap formed on January 25th. The price is currently testing a major "Value Area" defined by the convergence of the 100 and 200-period Moving Averages on the 4-hour chart, situated at 1.1682 and 1.1706, respectively.

This moving average cluster sits just below a primary horizontal support level at 1.1769. This confluence of indicators is expected to serve as a powerful technical catalyst, potentially propelling the pair back toward the 1.1987 resistance target.

Our momentum analysis via the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reinforces this recovery thesis, as the indicator has descended to the 32 level, signaling deeply oversold conditions. Simultaneously, the MACD histogram is printing progressively smaller bearish bars, suggesting that the downward momentum is rapidly exhausting.

If the bullish bars begin to take control and the price defends this support cluster, we anticipate a decisive shift in direction. However, traders should remain vigilant: a forceful break below this support zone would invalidate the immediate bullish setup and open the door for a more significant structural correction.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.1818

Target price: 1.1987

Stop loss: 1.1670

Validity: Feb 13, 2026 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Economic

Summary:

The AUD/JPY cross continues its bullish trend with the current price around 108.43, building on steady gains over the past week and month while technical indicators signal buy conditions

BUY AUDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

109.307

Entry Price

110.100

107.500

109.947 +0.589 +0.54%

79.3

Pips

Profit

107.500

110.100

Exit Price

109.307

Entry Price

110.100

Market Overview

The AUD/JPY currency pair has recently been trading higher, supported by the Australian Dollar’s strength against the Japanese Yen, benefiting from relative monetary policy conditions and broader risk sentiment that favors higher-yielding currencies. Currently trading around 108.43, the pair shows positive performance over the past week and month, reflecting ongoing appetite for AUD amid improving macro conditions relative to JPY. Technical ratings from widely tracked chart platforms indicate active buy signals on multiple timeframes, suggesting persistent bullish pressure.

Market Sentiment

Sentiment for AUD/JPY remains broadly bullish according to several sources. Technical indicators like moving averages, RSI and MACD often used to gauge directional bias are showing buy signals, with the 14-day RSI at elevated readings that reflect strength but not extreme overbought conditions. This supports the idea that dips should attract buyers rather than sellers. While short-term corrections can occur, the longer-term trend remains upward until a clear breakdown below key support levels.

Technical Analysis

AUDJPY Bullish Momentum Intact: Buy on Dip as Aussie Gains Against Yen_1

On the M15 timeframe, the AUD/JPY price structure shows the pair staying above rising dynamic support levels such as short-term moving averages and trading above recent pivot points. A strong buy signal is confirmed by several moving average crossovers and momentum indicators. Recent technical data also shows the price consuming resistance with steady upward slope, while pullbacks toward intraday support near lower moving averages have historically provided solid entries for buyers during this uptrend.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: 109.30

Take Profit: 110.10

Stop Loss: 107.50

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

XAU/USD has rebounded sharply from deep oversold levels after a historic sell-off but remains under pressure as recent momentum fails to break above key resistance....

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4960.00

Entry Price

4780.00

5050.00

5054.65 +108.40 +2.19%

900.0

Pips

Loss

4780.00

5051.02

Exit Price

4960.00

Entry Price

5050.00

Market Overview

Gold prices recently experienced an extremely volatile move, including a historic swing where gold dropped over 13% in a two-day period before rebounding strongly with the largest gains seen in decades. This rush back from oversold levels reflects short covering and opportunistic buy orders rather than a confirmed return to bullish momentum. While longer-term outlooks from major houses like J.P. Morgan maintain a bullish medium-term view, short-term price action remains vulnerable to corrective pressure until clear upside breaks occur.

Market Sentiment

Sentiment across precious metals is currently mixed. Although dip buyers stepped in after the steep sell-off, near-term sentiment does not yet reflect a decisive shift back to bullish control. Indicators continue to point toward caution, as the recent bounce may be temporary relief rather than entry into a sustained uptrend. This environment favors tactical selling at higher levels rather than aggressively buying breakouts.

Technical Analysis

Gold Faces Near-Term Weakness After Sharp Rebound_1

Current technical data shows that gold remains below its key resistance zones, struggling to sustain above prior pivot levels. Forecasts suggest that bearish pressure could persist and that near-term resistance around current ranges may cap high attempts, especially if the US dollar strengthens or other risk-off dynamics unwind. Although gold’s structure held support recently, the lack of a clear breakout above resistance suggests continuation of corrective bias before broader structural trends resume ascent.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: 4960

Take Profit: 4780

Stop Loss: 5050

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Forex

Summary:

The EUR/AUD cross continues its bearish trajectory, sliding toward 1.68–1.69 as the Australian dollar strengthens on RBA rate hikes and resilient economic data, while the euro struggles amid ECB steady policy and weak inflation signals...

SELL EURUSD

EXP

PENDING

1.68500

Entry Price

1.67000

1.69900

1.18181 +0.00006 +0.01%

Pips

PENDING

1.67000

Exit Price

1.68500

Entry Price

1.69900

Market Overview

EUR/AUD has been under sustained downward pressure as macro drivers tilt the landscape in favour of the Australian dollar. Recent data show the RBA lifted rates and may signal further tightening, supporting AUD strength, while the ECB remains steady without aggressive tightening, weakening EUR relative to AUD. This monetary policy divergence has kept the cross in a broad downtrend that shows little sign of reversing on 3 February, with the pair positioned around the 1.68–1.69 zone on live charts.

Market Sentiment

Sentiment in EUR/AUD remains bearish as traders continue to favour AUD in the face of hawkish RBA expectations and subdued euro activity. Price action has already broken through recent temporary lows and technical studies from daily outlooks suggest downside continuation remains the primary scenario unless a significant reversal trigger emerges. Traders are thus inclined to add to or initiate short positions on rallies rather than look for long opportunities at these levels.

Technical Analysis

On the M15 chart, EUR/AUD’s structure shows lower highs and lower lows, reflecting sustained selling pressure. A key technical study indicates that the decline resumed after breaking below the 1.6892 intraday low, reinforcing bearish bias and paving the way for deeper declines toward next support targets if momentum persists. Overhead resistance near recent pivot highs remains intact, presenting ideal sell-on-strength entry zones.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: 1.6850

Take Profit: 1.6700

Stop Loss: 1.6990

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The USD/JPY rally to near 156.00 is driven by a potent combination of a hawkish shift in Fed leadership prospects—via Kevin Warsh's nomination—and strong U.S. manufacturing data.

BUY USDJPY

EXP

TRADING

155.885

Entry Price

164.000

152.400

156.566 +0.801 +0.51%

0.0

Pips

Flat

152.400

Exit Price

155.885

Entry Price

164.000

The relentless rally of the U.S. dollar has found its most potent expression against the Japanese yen, where a third consecutive day of gains is painting a stark picture of diverging monetary destinies. As of Tuesday’s European session, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.24% higher, pressing decisively toward the 156.00 handle—a level that crystallizes the overwhelming market consensus betting on American economic resilience and policy divergence.

This isn't merely a technical blip; it's a fundamental realignment. The Greenback’s engine is roaring on a powerful mix of political calculus and hard economic data, leaving the yen, despite its own hawkish whispers, gasping in its wake. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), that critical barometer of dollar strength, is hovering near a weekly peak of 97.73, underscoring a broad-based demand that is particularly acute against Japan’s currency.

The initial and perhaps most potent catalyst for this week’s surge was a political headline with profound financial implications. Friday’s nomination of Kevin Warsh by President Donald Trump for the Federal Reserve Chairmanship sent a shockwave through currency markets—a positive shock for dollar bulls. Warsh, a former Fed governor known for his hawkish leanings and criticism of prolonged quantitative easing, represents a very different path than other contenders.

The market’s reading is instant and clear: a Warsh-led Fed would be inherently less dovish, more sensitive to inflation risks, and far more cautious about cutting interest rates than alternative candidates. In a world where the Bank of Japan remains entrenched in ultra-accommodative policy, this widening gap in future interest rate trajectories is pure rocket fuel for USD/JPY. Investors are not just buying dollars; they are buying the expectation of a more normalized, and tighter, U.S. monetary policy regime.

If the Warsh nomination provided the strategic thesis, Monday’s U.S. economic data delivered the emphatic tactical confirmation. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) wasn’t just a beat; it was a declaration. Surging to 52.6 in January from a contractionary 47.9, it blasted past estimates of 48.5. A figure above 50 denotes expansion, and this wasn’t a marginal crawl over the line—it was a decisive leap back into growth territory, ending a months-long slump.

This data point is critical because it directly counters recessionary fears that had lingered in the market. It suggests the U.S. industrial core possesses remarkable resilience, buoyed by strong domestic demand. For the Fed, it provides cover and reason to maintain a "higher for longer" stance on rates. For the dollar, it’s an irresistible attractor of global capital.

Meanwhile, in Tokyo, a telling dissonance emerges. The Bank of Japan’s latest Summary of Opinions revealed that a majority of policymakers discussed the need to continue tightening monetary conditions and even raised the possibility of further rate hikes. Ordinarily, this would be a yen-positive event.

Yet, the currency market’s reaction has been a collective shrug. The yen continues to underperform broadly. Why? Because the perceived gulf between the BoJ’s timid, data-dependent crawl toward normalization and the Fed’s (potentially Warsh-accelerated) steadfastness is simply too vast. Market participants are pricing in the relative speed of policy adjustment, and Japan is lagging far behind. The BoJ’s communication sounds like a cautious whisper, drowned out by the Fed’s evolving, more determined narrative.

Techncal Analysis

USD/JPY Hits 156: How Trump's Fed Pick and a Hot Economy Are Crushing the Yen_1

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY remains entrenched in a well-defined bullish structure on the daily chart, with price action continuing to respect a long-term ascending trendline that has guided the pair higher for months. The broader sequence of higher highs and higher lows remains intact, signaling that underlying upside pressure has not been invalidated despite recent volatility.

Price recently pulled back sharply from the 158.50–159.00 resistance region, an area that has repeatedly capped rallies. That rejection drove the pair down toward the rising trendline and the 152.00–153.00 support zone, where buyers stepped back in aggressively. The swift rebound from this confluence of dynamic trendline support and horizontal structure reinforces the idea that dips are still being viewed as buying opportunities within the broader uptrend.

The 155.00 area now acts as an important near-term pivot. It previously served as support during the late-January consolidation and is again being reclaimed after the pullback. Holding above this level keeps short-term momentum aligned with the broader bullish trend. A sustained move below 152.00, especially if accompanied by a daily close under the ascending trendline, would mark a meaningful deterioration in structure and expose deeper downside toward 150.00, followed by 147.50, where prior breakout momentum accelerated.

On the upside, bulls remain focused on a clean break above the 158.50–159.00 resistance zone. A sustained push through this ceiling would confirm a continuation of the primary uptrend and likely trigger momentum-driven buying. That would open the path toward the psychological 160.00 level initially, with scope for an extension toward 162.00–164.00, in line with the projected move illustrated on the chart.

Momentum conditions point to consolidation rather than a full reversal. The recent drop helped unwind stretched conditions after the prior rally, and the strong bounce from trendline support suggests buyers remain active on weakness. This type of reset often precedes another leg higher, provided key supports continue to hold.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USD/JPY

ENTRY PRICE: 155.90

STOP LOSS: 152.40

TAKE PROFIT: 164.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Summary:

During European trading hours on Tuesday, gold prices extended their rebound from the lowest level since January 6 and challenged the US$4,950 per ounce threshold. The dollar edged lower, retreating from over a week's high, which helped gold regain upward momentum after plunging over the past two days.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

TRADING

4901.91

Entry Price

5160.00

4745.00

5054.65 +108.40 +2.19%

0.0

Pips

Flat

4745.00

Exit Price

4901.91

Entry Price

5160.00

Fundamentals

Gold staged a strong rebound after plunging for two consecutive trading days, poised to post its biggest single-day gain since 2008 on Tuesday. Silver also rose in tandem.

The current bull market for precious metals will continue, with prices set to reach new all-time highs later this year. Considering the market's rather irrational behavior in recent weeks, current prices have largely returned to a relatively reasonable range. They are now essentially back to the levels seen in the first half of January.

Trump's nomination of Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair triggered a sharp pullback in precious metals markets. The market reaction to Warsh's nomination was to view him as a relatively credible candidate, leading to a strengthening of the dollar. This, in a sense, burst the previous bubble in precious metals.

Due to the partial U.S. government shutdown, the release of the December 2025 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the nonfarm payrolls report will be delayed. Consequently, the price movements of the U.S. dollar will continue to influence the trajectory of the XAUUSD exchange rate.

After the Irrational Premium Was Cleared, Gold Prices Returned to a Reasonable Range_1

Technical Analysis

Gold prices demonstrated resilience after breaching the 50-day SMA during the recent decline, stabilizing and rebounding around the US$4,400 level on Monday. Although prices briefly fell below the SMA, the 50-day SMA continues to maintain an upward slope, suggesting the medium-term trend remains intact. Any pullback is more likely to find technical support.

Currently, gold prices remain firmly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (around the US$4,645–US$4,650 range), with this range forming a key short-term support zone. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded above 60, indicating that momentum is stabilizing. The market has not yet entered a clearly oversold or one-sided downward trend.

However, momentum indicators remain cautiously neutral. The MACD line continues to run below the signal line and remains below the zero-axis, with negative histograms expanding. This indicates that downward momentum has not yet fully dissipated, and short-term bears still hold a certain advantage. Against this backdrop, any rebound is more likely to be viewed as a corrective rally. Should prices extend higher, they will retest the psychological threshold of US$5,000. Conversely, if the current support zone is breached, gold prices may transition into a longer-term pattern of high-level consolidation and range-bound trading.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 4845

Target Price: 5160

Stop Loss: 4745

Valid Until: February 28, 2026 23:55:00

Support: 4845, 4814, 4746

Resistance: 4933, 4950, 4984

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The EUR/GBP pair is trading near a five-month low as markets anticipate a key policy divergence. While both the ECB and BoE are likely to hold rates this week, expectations are building that the ECB will be forced to cut interest rates sooner and potentially faster than the BoE, due to cooler Eurozone inflation and stickier UK price pressures.

SELL EURGBP

EXP

TRADING

0.86350

Entry Price

0.85700

0.87000

0.86234 -0.00031 -0.04%

0.0

Pips

Flat

0.85700

Exit Price

0.86350

Entry Price

0.87000

The Euro is teetering on the brink of a significant technical abyss against the Pound Sterling, trading with a distinct limp near 0.8620 in Tuesday’s early European dealings. This level, a precarious five-month trough, is not merely a numerical blip on a screen but a stark reflection of the intensifying macroeconomic divergence narrative gripping traders ahead of a seismic Thursday. On that day, the monetary policy fate of two of Europe’s largest economies will be decided simultaneously, as both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) deliver their latest verdicts. The current price action suggests the market is placing its bets—and they are not on the single currency.

While consensus overwhelmingly expects both institutions to hold their respective policy rates steady—the ECB’s Deposit Facility Rate at 4.00% and the BoE’s Bank Rate at 5.25%—the devil, as always, is in the detail, the tone, and the forward guidance. The perceived fragility of the Euro stems from a building narrative of a more urgent and imminent easing cycle from Frankfurt compared to London.

The ECB’s challenge is one of managed retreat. With Eurozone headline inflation having plummeted from its stratospheric peaks to brush against the bank’s 2% target, the debate has decisively shifted from if to when and how fast. Tomorrow’s preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for January is critical stage-setting. Forecasts point to a further cooling, with the headline figure expected to decelerate to an annual 1.7% from December’s 1.9%. More crucially, the core measure—stripped of volatile food and energy—is seen holding at 2.3%. A print at or below these levels will be interpreted as a green light for ECB President Christine Lagarde to begin laying the groundwork for a potential rate cut as early as the second quarter, perhaps April. The market hears the doves cooing, and it is selling euros in anticipation.

Contrast this with the landscape facing the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. The UK’s inflation demon has proven more tenacious. December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) shockingly re-accelerated to 3.4%, interrupting a steady disinflationary trend and serving as a cold reminder of persistent domestic price pressures, particularly in services. This data point alone acts as a powerful deterrent against any notion of a swift policy pivot.

Furthermore, the BoE finds itself in a subtly different phase of its cycle. Having already executed a pre-emptive 25-basis-point cut in December—a move that caught some off guard and framed as the start of a "gradual downward path"—Governor Andrew Bailey and his colleagues can afford, and indeed are compelled, to preach patience. They are likely to emphasize that the full impact of their previous historic tightening has yet to cascade fully through the UK economy, and with wage growth still elevated, a reckless rush to ease could re-anchor inflation expectations. The message on Thursday will be one of cautious, data-dependent gradualism, with June or even August now eyed as the probable starting point for a follow-up cut.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, EUR/GBP is firmly embedded in a well-defined bearish structure on the 1-hour chart, characterized by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows since the December peak. The broader trend remains decisively negative, with each corrective rebound failing beneath clearly defined supply zones.

Price action shows that the pair has repeatedly respected the 0.8740–0.8760 resistance zone, which has acted as a distribution area during multiple pullbacks. Each test of this region has attracted renewed selling pressure, reinforcing its significance as a key structural cap. The most recent rejection from this zone triggered a sharp impulsive decline, confirming the presence of active sellers.

On the downside, EUR/GBP has broken below the 0.8650 support zone, a level that previously served as short-term demand and consolidation support. The loss of this level marks a continuation of bearish momentum rather than a temporary stop-run. Current price action is consolidating just below this former support, suggesting a brief pause before potential continuation lower.

A sustained move below 0.8620 would likely accelerate downside pressure toward the 0.8570–0.8580 support zone, which represents the next major area of historical demand. A decisive break beneath this region would expose the 0.8500 psychological handle, signaling a broader trend continuation rather than a short-term correction.

On the upside, any recovery attempts are expected to remain corrective while below 0.8650, with stronger resistance layered at 0.8740–0.8760. Only a sustained reclaim of these levels would meaningfully neutralize the bearish structure and open the door for a deeper retracement.

Overall, market structure, trend alignment, and price behavior favor continued downside, with consolidation viewed as distribution rather than accumulation.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL EUR/GBP

ENTRY PRICE: 0.8635

STOP LOSS: 0.8700

TAKE PROFIT: 0.8570

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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