Bull-Bear Schism Deepens—Are Gold Longs Primed for a Momentum Surge?

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

Gold prices remained locked in a high-level consolidation range Monday as the market split into two camps. Several institutional investors continue to champion gold's medium- to long-term bull case, while a growing contingent argues that near-term upside momentum is fading and a wide-swing trading phase is likely ahead.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3360.63

Entry Price

3429.00

3229.00

4339.75 +40.36 +0.94%

59.7

Pips

Profit

3229.00

3366.60

Exit Price

3360.63

Entry Price

3429.00

Fundamentals

Volatility has intensified in recent sessions, driven by the back-and-forth on U.S. tariff policy and heightened uncertainty over the Fed's rate trajectory. Although bullish sentiment is still prevalent, spot gold has repeatedly failed to effect a clean breakout from its current congestion zone.

On the tariff front, US President Trump signed an executive order extending the pause on reciprocal levies until after 1 August and simultaneously dispatched fresh tariff letters targeting copper, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. The news rekindled haven demand across asset classes.

Monetary policy minutes from the June FOMC meeting revealed a divided committee: officials disagreed on how aggressively tariff-related price pressures could feed into inflation. Overall uncertainty has eased modestly since the prior meeting but remains elevated by historical standards.

CME FedWatch now prices a 93.3% probability of an unchanged policy rate at the July meeting, with only a 6.7% chance of a 25 bp cut. By September, the probability of no change falls to 59.7%, while cumulative probabilities for 25 bp and 50 bp cuts stand at 36.2% and 4.1%, respectively.

Escalating trade tensions and sticky inflation have caused the market to pare September easing bets, providing a headwind for gold's next leg higher.

Bull-Bear Schism Deepens—Are Gold Longs Primed for a Momentum Surge?_1

Technical Analysis

Safe-haven flows surged after Trump's latest tariff announcement, pushing spot gold to an intraday high near US$3,375 Monday.

The break above the US$3,346 resistance has unleashed follow-through buying, cementing short-term bullish control. On the four-hour chart, momentum remains constructive, with scope for an assault on the psychological US$3,400 handle.

Downside cushions are layered at US$3,326. A breach could attract dip-buyers and keep the metal above US$3,300. A deeper pullback toward US$3,282 is technically possible but appears unlikely under current risk-off conditions.

Overall, gold is likely to remain in a high-level consolidation, but the short-term uptrend is intact. Tactical positioning retains a mild bullish bias.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 3360

Target Price: 3429

Stop Loss: 3329

Deadline: July 29, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 3366/3360/3353

Resistance: 3375/3386/3393

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Commodity

Summary:

The Trump administration's threat to impose an additional 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU reignited global trade friction concerns, driving gold prices higher.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3367.75

Entry Price

3425.00

3335.00

4339.75 +40.36 +0.94%

327.5

Pips

Loss

3335.00

3334.96

Exit Price

3367.75

Entry Price

3425.00

Fundamentals

As of the Asian trading session today, gold has maintained a clear upward trend, with prices briefly climbing to a new July high of 3373.82. This rebound is the result of a combination of macroeconomic and market sentiment factors.

On one hand, Trump's latest threat to impose 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico has fueled fears of global trade friction again, prompting investors to flock to gold as a traditional safe-haven asset amid uncertainty about global economic growth prospects. On the other hand, the market is eagerly awaiting the release of the U.S. June CPI report on Tuesday for more clues about the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Now, the market expects the Fed to cut rates by slightly more than 50 basis points by December.

Additionally, demand dynamics in major Asian consumer countries are subtly influencing gold's trajectory. Although China and India are the world's largest physical gold buyers, the market is cautious due to recent sharp price fluctuations, newly introduced anti-money laundering, and counter-terrorism regulations. China's spot premium remains stable at $10–25 per ounce, while India's market has delayed its traditional buying season due to the monsoon and policy uncertainty. This relative weakness in physical demand appears to dampen gold's short-term upward momentum, but it also limits excessive declines in prices while safe-haven demand is subdued.

Fine-tuning in speculative positions further confirms the delicate balance in the current gold market. The latest CFTC report shows that as of the week ending July 8th, speculators' net long positions in gold and silver decreased by 1,855 contracts, reflecting some profit-taking by short-term bulls. Although speculators decided to partially cash in at high levels, their net long positions remain near historical highs due to medium- to long-term policy and sentiment factors, providing solid support for gold prices.

Technical Analysis

Renewed Tariff Threats, Is Gold Poised for a Historic High?_1

Judging from the daily chart, gold is currently staying in a high-range consolidation phase, trading within the 3250.00–3437.00 range. After successfully bottoming out at 3247.90 on June 30th, gold has maintained an upward trend and may test the upper boundary of the range at 3437.00.

Renewed Tariff Threats, Is Gold Poised for a Historic High?_2

Meanwhile, gold recently broke through a short-term downtrend channel in the 4H chart, shifting the near-term trend from bearish to bullish. Prices surpassed 3365.54 today, further opening up upside potential. The first target is the psychological level of 3400.00. If this level is breached, prices may rise toward 3437.00.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 3360.00

Target price: 3425.00

Stop loss: 3335.00

Valid Until: July 28, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 3345.64/3330.25

Resistance: 3396.78/3451.10

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Forex

Summary:

GBP/USD is trading between 1.3460–1.3505, supported by a weaker USD amid trade‑tariff jitters and BoE’s cautious-but-steady tone. With bottoming price action and technical structure in focus, a dip‑buy setup toward 1.3600–1.3635 presents opportunity....

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.34602

Entry Price

1.36000

1.34350

1.33580 -0.00127 -0.09%

25.2

Pips

Loss

1.34350

Exit Price

1.34602

Entry Price

1.36000

Market Overview

Sterling has remained resilient despite tariffs and weak UK data. BoE’s half-year financial stability report and the UK‑U.S. trade deal limit downside. However, disappointing GDP (‑0.1% in May) and tariff concerns cap gains. USD softness from Trump‑driven trade risks and Fed uncertainty supports GBP.

Recent range: 1.3460–1.3505, slightly lower but stabilized as GBP benefits from USD weakness and limited BoE fallout.

Market Sentiment

Sentiment is mixed risk aversion supports USD, but tariff pressures and USD weakness tilt bias toward GBP buying on dips . Market positioning shows dip-buy behavior with technical setups suggesting corrections higher.

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD holds firm near 1.3460–1.3500 zone—Buy dip into 1.3600 resistance?_1

Bollinger Bands (20,0,2): Price hovering near mid‑band (~1.3480) after dipping from upper band potential spring for reversal.

Ichimoku (9,26,52): Shorts are capped, and cloud support above ~1.3450 suggests base for longs.

Stochastic (5,3,3): Oversold zone with upward crossover classic buy trigger.

Chart Structure: M15 shows higher lows within 1.3460–1.3505 range. Weekly/4H suggest bullish channel aiming toward 1.3635.

Trade Recommendation

Entry (Long): 1.3460–1.3480 – dip toward BB mid or cloud support

Take Profit: 1.3600 – psychological barrier and weekly structure resistance

Stop Loss: 1.3435

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Commodity

Summary:

Today, gold is trading near $3,354–$3,373/oz, buoyed by a surge in safe‑haven demand triggered by new U.S. tariff threats. With technicals supportive and fundamental outlooks pointing to possible breaks above $3,435, the setup favors a bullish breakout....

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3360.00

Entry Price

3373.00

3345.00

4339.75 +40.36 +0.94%

130.0

Pips

Profit

3345.00

3373.09

Exit Price

3360.00

Entry Price

3373.00

Market Overview

On July 14, 2025, spot gold surged to a three‑week high (~$3,355/oz) as President Trump threatened 30 % tariffs on the EU and Mexico effective August 1 renewing safe‑haven bids. The forecasts suggest prices could push toward $3,435 if gold closes above $3,360. Meanwhile, central bank stockpiling continues, reinforcing underlying structural support.

Market Sentiment

Investor sentiment remains firmly bullish. Trade tensions and geopolitical unpredictability drive renewed interest in gold as a portfolio hedge. Data shows central banks are accumulating over 1,000 tonnes/year, while gold ETFs attracted inflows of around $30 billion in Q1.

Technical Analysis

Gold climbs to three‑week high at $3,355–$3,370 amid rising trade‑tariff tension_1

Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price is riding the upper band (~$3,370) with a squeeze breakout potential momentum strongly positive.

Ichimoku (9,26,52): On lower timeframes, spot gold sits well above the cloud bullish confirmation.

Stochastic (5,3,3): Near high but not yet extreme room exists before overbought territory.

Chart Structure: A bullish ascending channel and triangle pattern confirmed on weekly and M15 charts. Weekly forecast suggests a bounce from weekly support near $3,315, enabling continuation to $3,845 target zone. Current channel resistance lies around $3,374–$3,373, key short‑term level .

Trade Recommendation

Entry (Long): $3,355–$3,365 after confirmation of upper BB breakout or rejection off cloud midline

Take Profit: $3,373–$3,374 next resistance, upper BB, recent daily high

Stop Loss: $3,340 beneath lower BB and recent M15/Kijun support

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Economic

Political

Summary:

If this bounce holds, it could pave the way for a continued rally toward the next resistance zone around 1.3884.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.36498

Entry Price

1.38840

1.35200

1.37669 -0.00031 -0.02%

44.9

Pips

Loss

1.35200

1.36049

Exit Price

1.36498

Entry Price

1.38840

Tensions between the U.S. and Canada escalated after President Trump issued a formal letter to Ottawa announcing the implementation of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, effective August 1. As has become customary, the move was justified by citing the alleged influx of fentanyl into the U.S. from Canadian territory. Currency analyst Michael Pfister from Commerzbank noted that Canada’s prior retaliatory response to previous tariffs may have further provoked the current escalation—something Trump has historically shown little tolerance for.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney responded by emphasizing continued diplomatic engagement with the U.S. as both nations approach the looming August 1 deadline. While the Canadian dollar (CAD) has managed to stabilize in the near term, the renewed tariff threat has added tension to an already delicate backdrop—particularly ahead of Canada's closely watched labor market data due today.

Meanwhile, political speculation is swirling in Washington. Bill Pulte, Trump’s nominee to head the Federal Housing Finance Agency and former chairman of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, referenced unverified reports suggesting that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell might be considering stepping down. In a public statement, Pulte said, “I’m encouraged by reports that Jerome Powell is contemplating resignation. I believe this would be the right move for America, and the economy would thrive as a result.”

Pulte, a staunch Trump ally, has repeatedly voiced his belief that the U.S. president should have direct control over Federal Reserve interest rate decisions—a view that has stirred concerns over the Fed’s independence. It is worth noting that the rumors regarding Powell's resignation remain unconfirmed and speculative at this stage.

Minutes from the Fed’s June 17–18 policy meeting reaffirmed the central bank’s cautious stance, with the majority of officials still concerned about upward inflation risks, particularly those stemming from Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda. While only a few members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) backed the idea of a rate cut in July, the overall hawkish tone helped the U.S. dollar remain strong, near a two-week high as of Thursday.

On the macroeconomic front, fresh data from the U.S. Department of Labor showed that initial jobless claims fell to 227,000 for the week ending July 5, beating market expectations and dropping below the previous revised figure of 232,000. This, combined with the stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data released last week, reinforces the resilience of the U.S. labor market and suggests that immediate rate cuts are unlikely.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also weighed in, noting that current monetary policy remains restrictive. While she acknowledged that tariffs are not as impactful as previously feared, she indicated that the Fed could begin considering rate adjustments should underlying fundamentals point toward a softening economic outlook. Support Zone Could Be the Launchpad for a Renewed Uptrend_1

Support Zone Could Be the Launchpad for a Renewed Uptrend_1

Technical Analysis

USDCAD has found firm support near the 1.3589 level—an area that has previously served as a reliable springboard for bullish momentum. The pair recently posted a strong close above the 9-period moving average, a development that may signal a shift in short-term trend dynamics. If this bounce holds, it could pave the way for a continued rally toward the next resistance zone around 1.3884.

Further supporting the bullish case, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipped to 27 on June 13, coinciding with the local low of 1.3545. Since then, no new lower lows have been made, hinting at the possibility of a bottom forming in this region. With price stability returning and technical indicators pointing toward recovery, the conditions may be aligning for an extended bullish move from current levels.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3650

Target price: 1.3884

Stop loss: 1.3520

Validity: Jul 22, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

If the price action fails to break above 3355 and shows rejection at this resistance, a bearish correction could unfold from current levels.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3365.00

Entry Price

3312.00

3395.00

4339.75 +40.36 +0.94%

165.6

Pips

Profit

3312.00

3348.44

Exit Price

3365.00

Entry Price

3395.00

In the second quarter of the year, net gold purchases by ETF investors totaled 170 tonnes, pushing the total to 397 tonnes in the first half of 2025. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), this marked the strongest first-half inflow into gold ETFs in five years. These inflows played a key role in propelling gold to a record high in April, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

However, recent weeks have seen the influence of ETF buying on gold prices begin to fade, suggesting that the bullish driver from institutional flows may be losing steam, at least in the short term.

Adding fuel to gold’s safe-haven demand, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, effective August 1. This move follows a series of more than 20 similar tariff notices issued by Trump since the start of the week, including a separate 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports announced last Wednesday. The flurry of aggressive trade measures has pushed investors toward safe assets such as gold.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June 17–18 policy meeting revealed that most policymakers remain concerned about upside inflation risks, largely driven by Trump’s escalating trade policies. While only a few officials supported the idea of a rate cut as early as this month, the hawkish tone helped the U.S. dollar hold near a two-week high recorded on Thursday.

On the economic front, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims fell to 227,000 for the week ending July 5, better than expected and below the prior revised reading of 232,000. Combined with last week’s stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data, this supports the view that the labor market remains robust and removes urgency for immediate rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that monetary policy remains restrictive and that the time may be approaching to consider adjusting rates. She added that while tariffs are not as severe as previously anticipated, underlying economic fundamentals could justify lower rates in the near future.

Separately, Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that the inflationary effects of tariffs are likely to be short-lived, emphasizing that any decision to cut rates would not be politically motivated. Waller, seen as a potential successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell in 2026, reiterated his call for a potential rate cut as early as July. Another Failure at Resistance May Lead to a Bearish Reversal_1

Another Failure at Resistance May Lead to a Bearish Reversal_1

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD has climbed to retest the 3366 level—a local high that has acted as strong resistance on two recent occasions. The price also tapped this area on July 2, triggering a sharp downside move from that level. A similar reaction this time around could once again lead to a correction toward the next local support around 3310.

On the 4-hour chart, the 100-period and 200-period moving averages are positioned at 3329 and 3340 respectively. Although price action remains above both moving averages, the RSI has risen to 67, nearing the overbought threshold. Notably, this RSI surge has been steeper than in the previous upswing, which could indicate waning bullish momentum.

If the price action fails to break above 3355 and shows rejection at this resistance, a bearish correction could unfold from current levels. However, if XAUUSD manages to close convincingly above 3366, the bullish trend may be reignited, opening the door for further upside.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 3365

Target price: 3312

Stop loss: 3395

Validity: Jul 22, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

President Trump’s announcement of a sweeping 35% tariff on Canadian imports has reignited trade war anxieties and cast a shadow over U.S.-Canada economic ties.

BUY XAGUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

37.700

Entry Price

40.000

36.600

62.883 +0.956 +1.54%

29.8

Pips

Profit

36.600

37.998

Exit Price

37.700

Entry Price

40.000

In a striking escalation of North American trade tensions, former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a hefty 35% tariff on Canadian imports, reigniting fears of a renewed trade war and threatening to destabilize what has historically been one of the most stable economic relationships in the world. The announcement, delivered via Trump’s favored platform, Truth Social, took markets by surprise and immediately injected a dose of geopolitical risk into investor sentiment, already wary of global headwinds.

The move comes at a sensitive time for both economies. Canada, already grappling with domestic inflation pressures and a slowing housing market, now faces the potential of a significant export drag, while the United States risks alienating one of its top trading partners. U.S.-Canada bilateral trade in goods and services exceeds $800 billion annually, making Canada one of America’s largest export markets.

Trump’s decision marks a sharp departure from recent efforts by the Biden administration to mend and modernize North American trade ties through collaborative channels such as the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Trump, however, justified the tariff by accusing Canada of "unfair practices" and failing to align with U.S. strategic interests—though specifics were notably sparse. Analysts believe the move is more political than economic, as Trump continues to push a populist agenda ahead of the 2024 election cycle.

For Canada, the economic implications are immediate. A 35% levy on exports ranging from raw materials to finished consumer goods threatens to disrupt cross-border supply chains and place additional pressure on industries already facing tight margins. Steel, lumber, and agricultural sectors are expected to be among the hardest hit, with ripple effects potentially flowing through North American manufacturing.

Markets responded with caution. The Canadian dollar weakened slightly against its U.S. counterpart, while major equity indices in Toronto posted modest declines. Investors fear that this latest tariff salvo could spark retaliatory measures from Ottawa, reminiscent of the tit-for-tat dynamic seen during Trump’s previous term.

"While it's too early to assess the full impact, the optics are troubling," said Hannah McAllister, head of global trade strategy at Northwood Capital. "We’re seeing a re-emergence of the kind of unilateralism that eroded confidence during the 2018–2020 trade skirmishes."

As trade tensions re-enter market narratives, safe-haven assets are starting to show renewed strength — and silver is no exception. The precious metal rose sharply during the latest intraday session, breaking above the critical resistance level at $37.30. The move was driven by a combination of risk-off flows and strong technical tailwinds.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

From a chart perspective, silver’s bullish bias remains intact. Prices have been hugging a rising bias line that has acted as dynamic support throughout the rally. In the latest session, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) flashed further upside signals, even as it approached overbought territory — an indication that momentum remains firmly in favor of the bulls.

The breakout above $37.30 is significant, not only because it breaches a key psychological threshold but also because it clears the way for a potential test of the $38.50 and $40.00 zones — the latter representing the highest levels seen since the 2020 stimulus-driven rally.

Traders should remain mindful of short-term consolidation risks, especially with the RSI nearing extremes. However, unless price action decisively falls below the $36.50 support zone, dips are likely to be bought, with market sentiment increasingly skewed toward precious metals amid geopolitical uncertainties and tariff-driven macro disruptions.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY SILVER

ENTRY PRICE: 37.70

STOP LOSS: 36.60

TAKE PROFIT: 40.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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