Today’s gold price action reflects defensive positioning following the latest U.S. employment data, where rising unemployment and softer labor market metrics reinforced expectations of more accommodative Fed policy ahead. Spot gold is trading around $4,318–$4,330/oz, within a daily range of approximately $4,302 to $4,346/oz, showing resilience after short-term dips.

The broader background is a multi-session uptrend, with gold marking a significant weekly gain and flirting with record territory amid downside risk to growth and persistent inflation concerns. Safe-haven buying has been reinforced by macro jitters and geopolitical unrest, keeping premiums elevated even when risk assets show mixed performance. Gold’s extended uptrend means bulls are not yet exhausted and, on the M15 timeframe, price frequently tests support and seeks fresh highs as traders recalibrate after each pullback.

Short-term sentiment remains tilted toward bullish conviction for gold, driven by both fundamental and technical setups. The recent rise in gold prices has coincided with weaker U.S. labor data, which tends to bolster rate-cut expectations and supports the narrative that real yields could stay lower for longer, diminishing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

Additionally, silver’s record surge and strength in other precious metals reinforce a broader risk-off and safe-haven demand profile across commodities. This positioning suggests that dips are more likely to attract buying interest rather than triggering prolonged selloffs. While sentiment is cautiously optimistic rather than euphoric, this environment is healthy for controlled upside continuation rather than exhaustion, especially on shorter timeframes such as M15, where traders look for entry on pullbacks rather than moments of peak fear.

On M15, Bollinger Bands (20,2) show price consolidating above the mid-band, with frequent probes toward the upper band. This pattern suggests that the recent corrective declines have not structurally broken the M15 bullish environment; instead, they represent typical mean reversion within a broad uptrend. The mid-band is acting as dynamic support rather than resistance, indicating short-term buyers consistently step in near value zones.

The Ichimoku (9,26,52) structure on M15 shows price maintaining levels above or within the lower edge of the cloud after retracements, with the Tenkan (conversion) line pulling above the Kijun (base) line when the market finds support. This alignment conversion line above base line after a pullback is a classic bullish momentum sign.

Finally, the Stochastic (5,3,3) oscillator typically cycles from oversold to renewed upward crossovers during corrective lows, implying that each pullback has been a buying opportunity rather than a reversal of trend. Together, these indicators support a continuation bias in gold’s short-term trend, with higher probability for upside breakout than for structural failure.

Entry: $4,320

Take Profit: $4,365

Stop Loss: $4,295

Today’s driver is not “general USD strength”; it is a UK-specific repricing event. UK CPI fell to 3.2% YoY (Nov) from 3.6% (Oct), below consensus and even below the BoE’s recent projection, which immediately increased conviction that the BoE will cut rates at the next decision.

In FX, that matters because it widens the perceived policy gap versus the U.S. at the margin: sterling loses carry support precisely when it needs it most to sustain rallies. Reuters notes the pound fell about 0.7% vs USD after the print, signaling this was a genuine repricing rather than routine noise.

For “today’s numbers,” GBPUSD is quoted around the 1.342x area in daily data feeds (open near 1.3424, with a tight daily range printed in some trackers). The critical M15 insight is that intraday rebounds can happen, but they tend to be sold until price proves it can build acceptance back above the level where the CPI-driven selloff accelerated.

Sentiment is not simply bearish; it is “sell-into-relief” because the catalyst is clean and recent. When inflation undershoots broadly (headline, core, services), traders don’t need to guess: they mechanically pull forward easing expectations, and GBP rallies become opportunities to reduce exposure rather than add risk. The second layer is timing: with the BoE meeting risk right in front of the market, participants prefer to own optionality (stay light) rather than hold unhedged sterling longs. That tends to create choppy M15 retracements, but with downward “gravity” as soon as liquidity returns. Meanwhile, U.S. yields holding around 4.17% reduces the odds of a sustained USD selloff that could otherwise rescue GBPUSD intraday.

Bollinger Bands (20,2): after a catalyst drop, the most common profitable short is not “sell any low,” but “sell the first failed mean reversion.” On M15, if price snaps back toward the mid-band (20-SMA) and then stalls, it usually signals distribution, with sellers using the average as a reference to reload. A clean bearish read is when candles repeatedly fail to close above the mid-band and start leaning back toward the lower band.

Ichimoku (9,26,52): the sell thesis is strongest if price is below the cloud and the cloud overhead acts as supply. In CPI-driven moves, the first cloud retest often becomes the decision point: acceptance back into/above the cloud weakens the short; rejection at the cloud strengthens it.

Stoch (5,3,3): you want to see Stoch recover from oversold (post-drop), then roll over again while price fails to make a higher high. That “momentum reset without recovery” is a classic continuation signature on M15.

Entry: 1.3425

Take Profit: 1.3265

Stop Loss: 1.3465

The Bank of Canada has decided to keep interest rates steady at 2.25%, considering the policy to be "roughly appropriate," which suppresses market expectations of recent aggressive easing measures and supports the Canadian dollar. Meanwhile, Canadian inflation data shows the overall CPI stabilizing at 2.2%, with the core inflation rate dropping to 2.8%, the lowest in ten months, reinforcing confidence that price pressures are aligning with the Bank of Canada's inflation target. On Wednesday, crude oil prices extended prior declines, with Brent crude dropping below US$60 per barrel for the first time since May, reflecting increasingly evident signs of global supply exceeding demand. Amid increased production from OPEC members and non-Middle Eastern countries, the International Energy Agency forecasts a significant oversupply in the global oil market this year and next, with the surplus potentially reaching record highs next year. Market structure indicators showed that some Middle Eastern and U.S. Gulf Coast crude grades briefly shifted to contango, signaling rising inventory pressures, although some regions maintained backwardation, indicating localized supply tightness. While declining oil prices partly ease inflationary pressures, expectations of an imminent resolution to the Ukraine conflict continue to exert downward pressure on market sentiment. Ukraine has indicated efforts to negotiate a legally binding security arrangement, with recent rounds of talks held in Berlin between Ukrainian representatives and U.S. officials. Market observers note that the news cycle surrounding the Russia-Ukraine situation is weighing on spot prices, but the prospects for substantive breakthroughs in negotiations remain uncertain. The decline in oil prices alleviates inflationary pressures and provides major economies' central banks with increased policy flexibility. In the United States, recent data shows a gradual slowdown in economic momentum. Non-farm employment rebounded in November after significant declines, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest in over four years. However, this data is limited in its reliability due to statistical distortions caused by the prolonged federal government shutdown. Employment growth is concentrated in healthcare and construction sectors, while government and transportation-related positions continue to decline, with wage growth also decelerating, indicating a gradual cooling of the labor market.

The mixed labor market data has not bolstered market expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The November employment report showed an increase of 64,000 jobs, slightly above forecasts, but the October figures were significantly revised downward, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, indicating a gradual cooling of the labor market. Retail sales remained flat month-over-month, further suggesting waning consumer demand. Federal Reserve officials are divided on whether additional monetary policy easing will be necessary next year. The median forecast among Fed policymakers is a single rate cut in 2026, though some policymakers anticipate no further cuts. Meanwhile, traders are pricing in two rate reductions next year. According to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to interview Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller on Wednesday to assess his suitability for the Fed Chair position. An October poll indicated that Waller is the economists' leading choice, as his rationale for rate cuts this year is viewed as the most logically consistent and capable of resolving internal Fed disagreements.

In the 1D timeframe, the price has broken below the EMA200 and is trending along the lower Bollinger Band, but a bullish engulfing pattern has emerged, breaking out of the downtrend channel, indicating a potential short-term rebound. After the MACD death cross, the MACD line and signal line fell below the zero-axis, signaling a shift to a bearish trend. The RSI at 32 indicates the market is in oversold territory, suggesting the decline is not yet exhausted but a rebound could occur at any time. In the 4H timeframe, Bollinger Bands are converging and narrowing, with SMAs converged. Following the MACD golden cross, the MACD line and signal line are retracing toward the zero-axis, yet still have some distance to go, implying the rebound is incomplete. Resistance levels are near the EMA50 and EMA200, at approximately 1.381 and 1.393, respectively. The RSI at 48 indicates a neutral market sentiment. It is recommended to go long before going short.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.378

Target Price: 1.42

Stop Loss: 1.357

Support: 1.373, 1.37, 1.357

Resistance: 1.414, 1.42, 1.44

According to the UK Office for National Statistics, headline CPI inflation dropped to 3.2% in November. Following the release, GBPUSD slid to the 1.333 area.

S&P Global figures published on Tuesday showed the UK Composite PMI at 52.1, beating both the consensus forecast of 51.4 and the prior 51.2. Both the Services and Manufacturing PMIs jumped to 52.1 and 51.2 respectively, surpassing market expectations. The improvement in the dominant services sector lifted sentiment and lent GBPUSD some support.

Nevertheless, money markets still price in a Bank Rate cut on Thursday, capping upside for the pair. A 25 bp reduction to 3.75% is fully discounted for the December MPC meeting.

"We continue to think the BoE will cut faster than markets currently price, with the Bank Rate declining to 3% by the end of 2026. The PMI data does not change that view," said Jefferies economist Modupe Adegbembo.

Fed officials remain divided over the necessity of further policy accommodation in 2026. The central tendency of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicates a solitary 25 bp reduction in the federal funds target range for 2026. However, a non-trivial cohort of Committee members now deem the policy rate to be at, or near, its terminal level.

In contrast, traders are pricing in two cuts over the same horizon, with the CME Group's FedWatch model assigning a 75.6% probability that the Fed will stand pat at the January meeting, up from roughly 70% a week earlier.

November's non-farm payroll report sent mixed signals about the pace of labour-market cooling: hiring rebounded after October's weather-distorted plunge, yet the unemployment rate rose in tandem. Both prints were heavily contaminated by the recent federal-government shutdown, and investors broadly regard them as insufficient to alter the near-term policy outlook. The Bureau of Labour Statistics reported that payrolls expanded by 64,000 in November, beating the consensus forecast of 50,000, while the October print—revised down by 105,000 after more than 150,000 federal workers accepted deferred-buyout packages—now shows a decline of 105,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6% from 4.5%, matching the median survey estimate for end-2025 that has prevailed over the past three quarters.

A textbook dark-cloud-cover formation has appeared on Cable's daily chart. The MACD fast line is within one session of crossing below the slow line, while RSI has completed a lower-high sequence, warning of an imminent corrective leg. A decisive close beneath the EMA12 would invalidate the bounce and expose layered support at the EMA200 (1.325) and the lower Bollinger band (1.303). RSI sits at 55, classic watch-and-wait terrain.

On the weekly chart, price remains compressed beneath the middle Bollinger. MACD has mean-reverted to the zero axis but has not yet registered a bullish crossover. A successful golden cross would open the upper Bollinger and the prior structural high. Failure would re-target the EMA200. RSI is 52 and printing descending tops, signalling waning momentum.

Therefore, traders are recommended to sell the rally, then buy the dip.

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.338

Target Price: 1.29

Stop Loss: 1.35

Support: 1.3/1.29/1.28

Resistance Levels: 1.34/1.342/1.35

Today, the UK's November Consumer Price Index (CPI) unexpectedly declined, with the annual inflation rate dropping from 3.6% in October to 3.2%, and the month-on-month rate showing a contraction (-0.2%). Core inflation also decreased to 3.2%. This data significantly underperformed market expectations, exerting immediate downward pressure on the British pound and renewing market speculation of a more accommodative stance by the Bank of England.

It is noteworthy that the CPI reduction reflects a genuine, rather than nominal, decline (monthly negative growth), indicating a sustained easing of inflation. This bolsters market expectations of monetary policy loosening by the Bank of England, resulting in short-term pound depreciation following the data release.

The unexpectedly softening November CPI data directly undermines the Bank of England's rationale for maintaining high interest rates, prompting market expectations for an earlier or faster rate cut should inflation continue to decline. Concurrently, signals of weakening UK employment and wage growth—evidenced by rising unemployment and slowing wage inflation—present policymakers with a dilemma between supporting economic growth and preventing inflationary resurgence. Investors promptly adjusted their interest rate spreads and asset allocations, leading to a notable GBPUSD depreciation. The market's swift response is also reflected in GBP cross-currency basis swaps and interest rate swap markets, where traders have begun to incorporate a higher probability of monetary policy easing by the Bank of England.

In the 1D timeframe, the GBPUSD has recently reattempted to rally but remains below the 144-day SMA, which it has failed to definitively break through despite multiple attempts. The failed break indicates weakening bullish momentum, suggesting a potential short-term downtrend in price action.

Currently, following a dip from short-term highs triggered by economic data releases, the GBPUSD appears poised to test the 1.3200 support level. A breach of this support could further propel the exchange rate towards the 1.3000 threshold.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.3340

Target Price: 1.3020

Stop Loss: 1.3460

Valid Until: December 31, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 1.3000, 1.2700

Resistance: 1.3405, 1.3455

Market participants are currently fixated on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy decision scheduled for this Friday. The central bank is widely anticipated to hike its policy rate to 0.75%, a move that would establish the highest interest rate level in over three decades. Given that this hawkish shift is largely priced in, investors will likely pivot their attention toward Governor Kazuo Ueda’s forward guidance, seeking clues regarding the timing and trajectory of subsequent hikes. Ahead of the decision, Japan’s economic calendar features crucial November trade data on Wednesday, including adjusted merchandise trade balances, exports, and imports.

Simultaneously, the US economic landscape remains complex. Recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) offered a conflicting narrative: while November’s workforce expansion exceeded forecasts, the unemployment rate simultaneously climbed to its highest peak since 2021. Despite this labor market softening, which theoretically supports aggressive easing, expectations for a January 2026 rate cut remain notably low at approximately 25%, according to Capital Edge data.

Further complicating the outlook, delayed retail sales figures from the U.S. Census Bureau suggest that American consumer spending remains resilient, with October sales figures holding steady. However, the underlying data reveals a growing burden on households due to rising costs for food, furniture, and imported goods—inflationary pressures exacerbated by current tariff policies.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic characterized the latest jobs report as a "mixed bag," stating it has not fundamentally altered his perspective. He expressed a preference for holding rates steady during the Fed's most recent deliberations, citing "multiple surveys" that indicate rising input costs for businesses. Bostic noted that firms are determined to protect their profit margins by passing these costs on to consumers through higher prices. He cautioned that the Fed should not prematurely declare victory over inflation, even as he projects 2026 GDP growth at roughly 2.5%.

This cautious tone mirrors the Federal Reserve’s broader strategic shift. Last Wednesday’s 25 basis point (bps) cut came despite inflation lingering near 3%. Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a "wait-and-see" approach, signaling an impending pause in the easing cycle. Having already implemented 175 bps of total cuts, Powell maintains that policy has returned to a neutral range and is no longer "strongly restrictive."

The USD/JPY pair has established solid support at the 154.49 level, a zone previously tested in early December. In that prior instance, the pair initiated a bullish rally that peaked at the December high of 156.94. If the price reacts positively to this support once more, we could witness an upward impulse toward the immediate resistance at 156.16.

From a moving average perspective, the 100 and 200-period MAs on the 4-hour chart are currently situated at 155.58 and 155.74, respectively. Their close proximity creates a significant technical cluster near the upside target. A decisive close above these averages would likely accelerate the bullish momentum toward the resistance zone. Notably, this area also aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement level of the recent move. Consequently, any upward surge toward this confluence of indicators should be viewed as a technical retracement, potentially offering a strategic entry point for sellers before the pair resumes its broader bearish trend.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 154.92

Target price: 156.16

Stop loss: 154.00

Validity: Dec 26, 2025 15:00:00