Bottom-Fishing Signal? Bitcoin Consolidates, Presenting Dip-Buying Opportunity Targeting the $120,000 Threshold

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin remained range-bound between US$107,000 and US$110,000 today. Amid ongoing consolidation, accumulation of buy orders on dips persisted, indicating that once bullish momentum builds sufficiently, a breakout is likely.

BUY BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

108374.0

Entry Price

118000.0

103000.0

91100.4 +1545.6 +1.73%

5374.0

Pips

Loss

103000.0

102980.6

Exit Price

108374.0

Entry Price

118000.0

Fundamentals

Bitcoin remained range-bound between US$107,000 and US$110,000 today, influenced by a combination of macroeconomic liquidity conditions and market sentiment.

Firstly, recent softening in U.S. macroeconomic data has prompted the Federal Reserve to adopt a more cautious policy stance, with short-term rate cut expectations persisting but unlikely to materialize immediately. Against this backdrop, capital allocation toward crypto assets has seen a modest rebound, particularly favoring Bitcoin due to its prominent "digital gold" characteristics.

Secondly, regulatory developments have been favorable: several major exchanges have advanced their Bitcoin ETF applications with U.S. regulators, lowering institutional entry barriers and fostering a more optimistic outlook for sustained asset accumulation.

Moreover, on-chain metrics from Glassnode indicate a slight increase in holdings by wallets with over 10,000 BTC in the past week, suggesting that some institutions or large investors are accumulating incrementally during the market correction. Concurrently, positive net outflows from exchanges signal easing selling pressure.

Overall, Bitcoin currently operates within a favorable environment characterized by policy uncertainty coupled with growing institutional participation, supporting its consolidation at elevated levels as it builds momentum for a potential breakout.

Technical Analysis

Bottom-Fishing Signal? Bitcoin Consolidates, Presenting Dip-Buying Opportunity Targeting the $120,000 Threshold_1

In the 1D timeframe, Bitcoin began a correction after reaching a peak of US$112,000 on May 22, retracing to stabilize around the US$107,000 level before rebounding. Currently, the price hovers near US$107,800, positioned slightly between the 10-day and 20-day SMAs, indicating a short-term equilibrium between bullish and bearish forces, while the medium- to long-term SMAs continue to signal an upward trend.

In the 4H timeframe, Bitcoin exhibits a narrow-range consolidation pattern, forming a "rectangle" with resistance near US$110,000 and support around US$107,000. Trading volume notably declined during the pullback and modestly increased during the rebound, suggesting insufficient bearish momentum to drive a deeper correction. If the price approaches the lower boundary with increased volume and rebound, bulls may regain control. A decisive breakout and close above US$110,000 would likely open a new upward channel, with short-term targets in the US$115,000 to US$120,000 range.

Trading Recommendations

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 106,000

Target Price: 118,000

Stop Loss: 103,000

Valid Until: June 12, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 105,810, 100,000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

Gold slips below $3,300 after Fed minutes highlight persistent inflation risks and rising yields. Stronger U.S. data and rebounding Treasury yields stall bullion’s rally, despite ongoing geopolitical support.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3285.00

Entry Price

3150.00

3370.00

4208.91 +11.00 +0.26%

850.0

Pips

Loss

3150.00

3370.43

Exit Price

3285.00

Entry Price

3370.00

Gold prices declined on Wednesday, pulling back from early session highs as investors reassessed their inflation expectations and re-priced U.S. monetary policy trajectory in response to the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes. Amid renewed strength in the U.S. Dollar and Treasury yields, bullion's safe-haven bid faded temporarily, despite a still-volatile geopolitical backdrop.

Spot gold (XAU/USD) traded around $3,297 per ounce during late North American hours, falling 0.27% intraday after peaking near $3,325. This marks the second consecutive session of weakness for the yellow metal, following weeks of gains that saw it pushing record territory above $3,300. The pullback coincides with a broader risk recalibration after the Federal Reserve released its May 6–7 meeting minutes, which revealed rising internal concerns over stagflation-like risks—persistent inflation coupled with weakening labor market conditions.

The minutes outlined a cautious tone from the central bank, with members signaling hesitancy in either tightening or loosening monetary policy until the economic impact of shifting U.S. tariff policies becomes clearer. While the Fed held its benchmark rate steady at 5.25–5.50%, it acknowledged a potential policy dilemma should inflation remain sticky amid signs of cooling growth and labor markets. This sentiment comes ahead of critical economic data this week, including the second estimate for Q1 GDP and the Fed’s favored inflation barometer—the Core PCE Price Index.

Notably, the minutes were recorded before President Donald Trump announced a significant rollback of tariffs on Chinese goods, reducing some duties from 145% to 30%. Although this shift in trade posture may eventually support growth, its disinflationary or inflationary effects remain uncertain. Nevertheless, optimism about U.S.-China and U.S.-India trade developments helped stabilize equity markets while limiting gold’s upside.

Supporting the Greenback was a rebound in Treasury yields, which saw the U.S. 10-year note rise 4.5 basis points to 4.493%, while real yields on inflation-protected securities climbed to 2.171%. This move undercut gold’s appeal, as higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bullion. Concurrently, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) jumped 0.33% to 99.89, buoyed by strong consumer confidence data. According to the Conference Board, U.S. consumer sentiment improved by the most in four years, providing another tailwind for the Greenback.

Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams emphasized the central bank's commitment to anchoring inflation expectations, warning against allowing inflation to become entrenched. His remarks added weight to the perception that rate cuts remain off the table in the near term.

Despite this week’s price weakness, fundamental demand for gold remains robust. According to customs data, gold imports into Switzerland from the U.S. hit their highest level since at least 2012 in April, suggesting steady institutional interest. Additionally, net gold inflows into China via Hong Kong more than doubled in April compared to March, marking their highest level since early 2024.

Goldman Sachs analysts reaffirmed their bullish stance, urging investors to raise gold allocations in long-term portfolios. The firm pointed to rising geopolitical tensions, elevated central bank demand, and growing skepticism over U.S. institutional credibility. “In this uncertain macro landscape, gold offers valuable diversification and tail-risk protection,” they stated in a note cited by Reuters.

Ongoing geopolitical concerns continue to offer a backstop to gold prices. The Israel-Hamas conflict remains unresolved, while tensions persist between Russia and Ukraine. These unresolved crises could prompt flight-to-safety flows back into precious metals should market stress resurface.

Technical Analysis

Gold's recent price action shows signs of technical weakness, with a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern becoming increasingly clear. The resistance trendline has been repeatedly respected, and the price recently broke a short-term ascending trendline, accelerating selling pressure. This coincides with a bearish RSI divergence, which suggests fading bullish momentum.

The failure to hold above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) underscores growing downside risk. As long as prices remain below the $3,280 threshold, technical indicators point to a possible test of the $3,160 support zone in the near term. Immediate resistance remains capped at $3,300.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3285

STOP LOSS: 3370

TAKE PROFIT: 3150

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

If the trendline breaks, it could intensify the selling pressure, with the next support level at 1.7387

SELL EURAUD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.75122

Entry Price

1.73900

1.76310

1.75420 +0.00153 +0.09%

118.8

Pips

Loss

1.73900

1.76310

Exit Price

1.75122

Entry Price

1.76310

Earlier today, Germany’s unemployment data was released, showing the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.3%. However, the number of jobless claims rose by 34,000, well above the expected increase of 11,000. These figures follow a weak GfK Consumer Confidence Survey and further confirm that the Eurozone's largest economy remains on shaky ground.

In France, consumer spending rose by 0.3% in April, marking a rebound from March’s 1.1% decline. While this was an improvement, it still fell short of the market’s expectation of a 0.8% gain. The first-quarter GDP confirmed a growth of 0.1%, in line with previous estimates, while Non-Farm Payrolls decreased against expectations.

ECB policymaker François Villeroy de Galhau commented that the 0.6% inflation rate in France was a “very encouraging sign of disinflation at work.” His dovish remarks on monetary policy suggested that the ECB’s normalization process might be far from complete, pointing to the possibility of further adjustments in the coming months.

In contrast, one of the more hawkish members of the ECB, Robert Holzmann, argued that the central bank should pause interest rate cuts at least until September, especially in light of the ongoing EU-U.S. trade tensions. Holzmann emphasized that he saw no reason for further rate reductions during the ECB's meetings in June and July.

Meanwhile, Australia’s April Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday, showed a stable reading of 2.4% year-on-year, matching March’s figure and surpassing the forecast of 2.3%. These numbers remain within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2-3%. Markets continue to price in a possible rate cut at the RBA’s July meeting, following the recent reduction of Australia’s Cash Rate to 3.85% during the May 20 meeting.

The RBA is expected to take a less dovish stance in the coming months, with some analysts predicting the central bank will return to a more neutral monetary policy position. However, the National Australia Bank (NAB) has raised its terminal rate forecast to 3.1%, up from the previous 2.6%. Trendline Break Could Unleash a Deeper Correction in EURAUD_1

Trendline Break Could Unleash a Deeper Correction in EURAUD_1

Technical Analysis

EURAUD is encountering significant resistance near the 1.7631 level, a price zone that has triggered downward pressure on three separate occasions. On this occasion, the correction could extend, as EURAUD has just closed below the 100-period moving average. If the trendline breaks, it could intensify the selling pressure, with the next support level at 1.7387. A break below the 200-period moving average would signal a deeper pullback.

The RSI stands at 36, approaching oversold territory. However, extreme RSI readings are often observed in pairs like GBPAUD, particularly on shorter timeframes such as the 2-hour chart. If the trendline provides significant support, the pair could reverse its momentum and move higher. Conversely, if EURAUD breaks the last resistance at 1.7631, the bearish setup would be invalidated.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.7517

Target price: 1.7390

Stop loss: 1.7631

Validity: Jun 06, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

The failure to print a higher high suggests that the pair may be poised for a deeper retracement, especially given the overextended rally that has brought it to its highest levels since 2022.

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.12909

Entry Price

1.09370

1.15800

1.16543 +0.00117 +0.10%

44.1

Pips

Profit

1.09370

1.12468

Exit Price

1.12909

Entry Price

1.15800

The Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes released Wednesday revealed ongoing internal deliberations over the potential economic impact of the Trump administration’s still-evolving trade policies. While the most aggressive tariffs remain suspended for now, they have not been fully withdrawn, maintaining a layer of uncertainty. Policymakers and Fed staff noted that recent bond market volatility warranted close attention, highlighting it as a possible threat to financial stability. Moreover, they pointed out that a shift in the U.S. dollar’s traditional safe-haven role, coupled with rising Treasury yields, could have far-reaching consequences for the broader economy.

Fed officials also raised concerns about a scenario in which inflation and unemployment might rise simultaneously—a combination that could force the central bank into a difficult position: whether to tighten monetary policy to rein in inflation or ease rates to support growth and employment.

Amid this backdrop, U.S. consumer confidence posted a remarkable rebound in May, recovering from near five-year lows. The Conference Board’s confidence index surged by 12.3 points to 98.0, marking the strongest monthly increase in four years and surpassing the consensus forecast of 87.1 from a Bloomberg survey of economists. The data reflected improving sentiment toward both the economy and the labor market as trade tensions appeared to subside, at least temporarily.

Expectations for the next six months saw their most significant monthly rise since 2011, while the assessment of current conditions also improved. The recovery in confidence was broad-based across age groups, income levels, and political affiliations, though the sharpest increase was seen among Republican respondents.

However, not all economic data was upbeat. New orders for U.S. durable goods fell sharply in April, dropping 6.3%, or $19.9 billion, to $296.3 billion, following a downwardly revised gain of 7.6% in March. The latest decline, though significant, was slightly less severe than the expected 7.9% fall. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, excluding transportation, new orders rose by a modest 0.2%. But when defense-related orders were removed, the data showed a deeper 7.5% decline.

The transportation equipment category, which had posted four consecutive months of gains, led the April drop with a decline of $20.3 billion, or 17.1%, bringing the total to $98.8 billion. This reversal highlights the fragility of recent gains and reinforces the mixed nature of current economic momentum.

In Europe, early estimates of France’s Consumer Price Index (Harmonized with EU standards) for May pointed to a noticeable cooling in inflation. The annualized CPI rose at a slower pace of just 0.6%, down from April’s 0.9% increase. This weaker inflation print has prompted renewed support within the European Central Bank (ECB) for a rate cut at the upcoming June policy meeting.

ECB policymaker and French central bank governor François Villeroy de Galhau called the 0.6% inflation rate a “very encouraging sign of disinflation at work” during remarks on Tuesday. Villeroy struck a dovish tone on the path of monetary policy, suggesting that policy normalization in the eurozone may still have some way to go. Key Resistance Level Could Set the Stage for a Pullback_1

Key Resistance Level Could Set the Stage for a Pullback_1

Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair is currently facing a strong resistance level near 1.1426—a price zone that has triggered downward pressure on three separate occasions. Each time the pair approached this level, it was met with selling interest, reinforcing the significance of this area. Notably, the local high at 1.1575, set on April 21, remains untouched. The failure to print a higher high suggests that the pair may be poised for a deeper retracement, especially given the overextended rally that has brought it to its highest levels since 2022.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached 60, still below the overbought threshold. However, the recent rejection from resistance, combined with the lack of fresh highs, could intensify downside pressure in the short term. If the pair continues to struggle near current levels, a correction could unfold, targeting the next significant support around 1.0937. This area, which previously acted as a major resistance, may now serve as a potential demand zone—making it a crucial level for traders looking to position for the next major move.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.1291

Target price: 1.0937

Stop loss: 1.1580

Validity: Jun 06, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

GBP/JPY retreats slightly to 194.50 after hitting near two-week highs, as the Pound loses some momentum.

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

194.997

Entry Price

199.000

192.500

206.911 -0.189 -0.09%

59.1

Pips

Profit

192.500

195.588

Exit Price

194.997

Entry Price

199.000

The British Pound has come under modest pressure on Wednesday, pulling back from its recent gains as the GBP/JPY currency pair retraced to around 194.50 during the European trading session. This dip follows a test of the 195.60 level — a near two-week high — reached in the prior session, as traders began taking profit and reassessing the path of UK interest rates after a flurry of strong domestic economic data.

Despite the pullback, the broader outlook for Sterling remains constructive. The retreat in GBP/JPY appears to be more of a corrective move rather than a full reversal, with technical and macroeconomic underpinnings still favoring the bulls. The Pound's underlying strength has been bolstered by recent upside surprises in UK inflation and retail figures, both of which are challenging the market’s prior assumptions that the Bank of England (BoE) would pursue a rate cut as soon as June.

Data released last week showed headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in the UK rose to 3.5% year-on-year in April, exceeding expectations. This was compounded by a surprisingly strong 1.2% month-over-month jump in retail sales, signaling resilient consumer demand even in a high-rate environment. These figures have complicated the narrative for doves at the BoE, who had been leaning toward policy easing amid sluggish growth concerns.

In response, traders have dialed back their rate cut bets, lifting UK yields and providing Sterling with some fundamental support — though not enough to prevent Wednesday's intraday dip in GBP/JPY.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the currency pair, the Japanese Yen has been exhibiting renewed vigor. The boost comes amid a sharp climb in domestic bond yields, following reports that Japan's Ministry of Finance is considering a reshuffling of its bond issuance strategy. According to Reuters, Tokyo may opt to reduce the supply of super-long-dated bonds as part of its annual fiscal framework revisions. Such a move would tighten long-end bond supply, pushing up yields and enhancing the Yen’s appeal as carry trade dynamics temporarily reverse.

The rise in Japanese bond yields — traditionally among the world’s lowest — has made the Yen more attractive relative to high-yielding peers, including the Pound. This shift, although perhaps transitory, has been enough to prompt some unwinding of long GBP/JPY positions this week.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, GBP/JPY remains firmly in a bullish trajectory despite Wednesday’s dip. The pair had recently broken above the horizontal resistance at 194.00, marking a significant breakout on the hourly chart. Price action continues to print higher highs and higher lows, suggesting that the bulls are still in control.

A key support zone lies near the 50-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently situated around 194.35. This level is being closely watched by intraday traders, with a successful hold expected to invite fresh buying interest.

The near-term target remains at 195.65 — a level that has recently acted as a cap. A clean breach above this resistance could open the door for a run toward 196.45, and potentially the psychologically significant 199.00 level, aligning with the upper bounds of the recent bullish channel.

Indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continue to show positive momentum. Furthermore, price action is finding consistent support at the 194.00 mark, a zone that could serve as a launching pad for renewed bullish advances.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GBPJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 195.00

STOP LOSS: 192.50

TAKE PROFIT: 199.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The euro regained footing against the U.S. dollar during Wednesday’s European session, buoyed by technical support near 1.1300.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.12998

Entry Price

1.17000

1.11000

1.16543 +0.00117 +0.10%

54.6

Pips

Profit

1.11000

1.13544

Exit Price

1.12998

Entry Price

1.17000

The euro managed to recover some ground against the dollar on Wednesday, paring earlier losses in a session dominated by investor caution and the looming release of the Federal Reserve’s May policy meeting minutes. The EUR/USD currency pair found meaningful support around the 1.1300 handle, but upside momentum remains capped near the 1.1340 level, reflecting broader market hesitation amid mixed macroeconomic signals.

The U.S. dollar’s strength in recent sessions has been largely underpinned by a resurgence in consumer confidence. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index surged to 98.0 in May from a prior reading of 85.7 in April, reversing six months of deterioration and offering a much-needed boost to sentiment in the world’s largest economy. Notably, the survey indicated a declining percentage of Americans expecting a recession within the next year—a key psychological shift that bolstered demand for the greenback.

Despite a headline drop of 6.3% in April’s Durable Goods Orders—a figure reflecting waning demand in the manufacturing sector and particularly in aircraft orders—the decline was less severe than the anticipated 7.9% contraction. This modest positive surprise mitigated concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump’s erratic tariff strategy is doing deeper damage to industrial output, even as lingering trade policy uncertainty continues to complicate the broader economic narrative.

Adding to the dollar’s tailwinds was the White House’s decision to delay the imposition of new tariffs on Eurozone goods, a move that momentarily soothed fears of a fresh trade conflict between Washington and Brussels. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which had recently touched one-month lows, rebounded nearly 1% on the news, reflecting a broader repricing of geopolitical risk.

Across the Atlantic, the euro remained under pressure due to lackluster economic data from key member states. In France, consumer confidence for April posted a sluggish recovery, rising only 0.3% month-over-month following a 1.1% drop in March. The reading came in well below market expectations of 0.8%, underscoring persistent household unease in the Eurozone’s second-largest economy.

Moreover, France’s Q1 GDP growth was confirmed at a paltry 0.1%, matching the preliminary estimate but doing little to inspire optimism. Employment data offered no respite, with nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declining 0.1%, defying forecasts of a flat reading.

Meanwhile, German labor market figures painted a similarly uninspiring picture. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.3%, but the net change in employment showed a worrying 34,000 drop—more than triple the 11,000 decline economists had expected. Taken together, the data validates the recent cautious rhetoric from ECB policymakers.

All eyes are now on the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s most recent policy meeting, due later today. Market participants are eager for insight into the Fed’s internal deliberations, especially given the growing divergence in policy outlooks between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

The central bank’s tone on inflation, growth risks, and future rate path will likely be pivotal in setting short-term direction for the dollar. A hawkish tilt in the minutes could extend the dollar’s rally, while any hint of dovishness may open the door for renewed euro strength—particularly if the EUR/USD pair holds above key technical levels.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel. Price action has remained firmly bullish since rebounding from key support at 1.1260, with a series of higher highs and higher lows confirming ongoing buyer control.

The pair is inching closer to the psychologically significant 1.1400 level, a critical supply zone that previously triggered substantial selling pressure. A decisive break above this region could pave the way for a more extended rally, particularly if the upcoming Fed minutes disappoint dollar bulls.

Until then, traders will be closely monitoring whether the pair can sustain price action above the channel’s midline and maintain support at 1.1260. Should those levels hold, the bullish bias remains intact, though consolidation near the 1.1400 barrier may precede any decisive breakout.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.1300

STOP LOSS: 1.1100

TAKE PROFIT: 1.1700

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Forex

Summary:

The dollar's upside potential may be capped by persistent market concerns regarding slowing U.S. economic growth and the fiscal deficit. Risk reversals continue to reflect a strong bias for dollar puts.

BUY USDX

Close Time

CLOSED

99.810

Entry Price

102.810

97.400

98.830 -0.120 -0.12%

189.0

Pips

Loss

97.400

97.920

Exit Price

99.810

Entry Price

102.810

Fundamentals

The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is currently consolidating after a rise of over 0.50% in the previous session. During Wednesday's European trading hours, the USDX traded around 99.80. The asset is being supported by strengthening consumer confidence data.

Data released on Tuesday revealed that the U.S. Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for May surged to 98.0, up from 85.7, significantly exceeding the anticipated 87.1 and marking the first increase in six months. The Present Situation Index rose by 1.8 points to 135.9. The Expectations Index increased by 17.4 points to 72.8.

Despite the rebound, the Expectations component remains below the critical threshold of 80, which historically signals an elevated risk of recession in the coming months.

Following the partial suspension of tariffs between the U.S. and China on May 12, economic conditions improved, although the Conference Board noted that the rebound had commenced earlier.

This increase was "largely driven by consumer expectations," as reflected in the three components of the expectations index: business conditions, employment prospects, and future income.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Survey typically garners less attention. However, on the one hand, the current environment is anything but typical. On the other hand, the survey results significantly exceeded expectations.

The May rebound in the Conference Board's U.S. Consumer Confidence data bolstered the dollar. Further positive data is needed to restore market confidence in US economic growth, while deficit concerns are unlikely to dissipate in the short term.

Technical Analysis

The dollar faces continued downside risk in the short term, mitigated by a positive surprise in consumer confidence data. However, we remain cautious about chasing a rebound in the USDX back to the 103.86 pivot point, a key level for bullish sentiment.

However, short-term risk reversals indicate a moderation in the bearish dollar sentiment observed earlier this month. Technical signals support some near-term stabilization for the dollar. Nevertheless, the overall bearish trend in the dollar remains entrenched across short, medium, and long-term analyses, suggesting limited upside potential overall.