Both Fundamental and Momentum Factors Necessitate Significant Effort

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

A positive catalyst for crude oil demand hinges on developments regarding tariffs. Bulls in the oil market still face a significant challenge in reversing the prevailing trend.

BUY WTI

EXP

EXPIRED

57.200

Entry Price

64.750

54.700

57.233 -0.408 -0.71%

Pips

EXPIRED

54.700

60.576

Exit Price

57.200

Entry Price

64.750

Fundamentals

WTI crude oil prices have been on a sustained rally over the past few trading sessions, currently trading at US$58.90, having rebounded from lows near US$56.00 per barrel in late April. The price action appears to be forming a potential double-bottom pattern and is currently testing a key resistance level near US$60.00.

The rise in WTI prices has been fueled by developments in the tariff trade negotiations. While these negotiations are likely to improve sentiment in the oil market, significant progress on tariff reductions is needed to bolster the demand outlook.

Meanwhile, the escalation of conflict between nuclear-armed states India and Pakistan, with Pakistan claiming to have shot down five Indian fighter jets, has also provided support for oil prices.

Furthermore, the unexpected production increase plan by OPEC+ at the beginning of this month triggered a short-term shock in the oil market. The unexpected aspect of this meeting was not only the exceeding of production increase expectations, but also the shift in OPEC+'s stance on supporting oil prices since 2022 and concerns about subsequent diplomatic negotiations.

We believe that this unexpected production increase is mainly related to the desire of Saudi Arabia and other leading countries to maintain the organization's discipline and the upcoming U.S.-Saudi diplomatic activities. Currently, the global crude oil supply and demand structure is gradually reversing and showing a "loose balance" state. If OPEC further increases production, it will gradually show a "supply exceeding demand" phenomenon, and the oil market may still face pressure in the future.

Overall, under the disturbance of supply and risk events, international oil prices may still be weak and volatile. If the expectation of weakening macroeconomic readings under tariff disturbances is realized, it will put further downward pressure on oil prices.

Both Fundamental and Momentum Factors Necessitate Significant Effort_1

Technical Analysis

The recent rally in WTI crude emerged following a significant decline from the April highs near US$64.00, with bulls now attempting to recoup some losses. However, the 200-day SMA remains above the 50-day SMA, suggesting that the long-term bearish bias may still be in play. The considerable gap between these indicators implies that substantial effort is required from the bulls to fully reverse the trend.

The stochastic oscillator is currently hovering near overbought territory, potentially signaling resistance to the current recovery or the need for a brief consolidation before further gains. Despite this, the stochastic has not yet presented a clear bearish divergence or a definitive downward turn, indicating that buying momentum persists for now.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index has entered bullish territory above 60, with room to advance before reaching extreme overbought conditions. This suggests further upside potential if buyers maintain control.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 57.20

Target Price: 64.75

Stop Loss: 54.70

Valid Until: May 22, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 58.59, 57.46, 56.17

Resistance: 59.52, 60.13, 61.84

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Eva Chen

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin's price is consolidating near the US$97,000 level. The Relative Strength Index indicates that Bitcoin's momentum is in the overbought territory. On-chain signals indicate a bullish outlook.

BUY BTC-USDT

EXP

EXPIRED

95500.0

Entry Price

101800.0

91000.0

88570.1 -457.6 -0.51%

Pips

EXPIRED

91000.0

111348.1

Exit Price

95500.0

Entry Price

101800.0

Fundamentals

Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market capitalization has increased by 1.7%, reaching US$2.98 trillion, approaching the upper bound of a consolidation range that has persisted for nearly two weeks.

Bitcoin is currently trading near US$97,000, with a notable surge in overall network activity recently. The latest data indicates that key price levels for Bitcoin are signaling a significant spike in network activity, suggesting substantial potential for the next price movement.

Bitcoin's key price levels highlight the activity within its ecosystem. Specifically, the short-term holder cost basis for Bitcoin is hovering near US$93,460. Maintaining above this level would position Bitcoin to initially break the US$100,000 threshold. Conversely, a breach below this level could trigger a price correction towards US$72,420. This metric is crucial as it reflects the average acquisition price of Bitcoin's short-term holders.

Based on key metrics, the Bitcoin network is exhibiting robust growth. Furthermore, network activity has reached a peak over the past six months. Therefore, the number of active Bitcoin addresses has reached 925,914 in the last 24 hours.

Overall, if Bitcoin's price sustains above its short-term holder cost basis, it could catalyze further upside, with a potential target in the US$100,000 range. Conversely, failure to do so could trigger a price correction towards US$72,420.

On-chain Signals Indicate a Bullish Outlook_1

Technical Analysis

The current Bitcoin price action, with its key resistance and support levels, suggests a potentially bullish outlook. The asset is currently consolidating within a narrow range. Specifically, the US$96,160 level is providing significant support, while bulls are encountering substantial resistance at US$98,290.

A break of US$98,290 could pave the way for a significant price move. This could see Bitcoin retesting the US$100,000 level, followed by a potential pullback. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that bullish momentum is in the overbought territory, which may signal a period of consolidation before further upside.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 95500

Target Price: 101800

Stop Loss: 91000

Valid Until: May 22, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 96160, 95333, 93429

Resistance: 98290, 99617, 102568

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Manuel

Economic

Central Bank

Summary:

If the price holds above this key support, a new upward move could be initiated, targeting the 1.8133 zone as the next significant resistance.

BUY EURAUD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.75686

Entry Price

1.81330

1.71800

1.76437 +0.00319 +0.18%

141.4

Pips

Loss

1.71800

1.74272

Exit Price

1.75686

Entry Price

1.81330

Traders are increasingly confident that the European Central Bank (ECB) is on track to deliver its eighth rate cut in the past twelve months, and its seventh consecutive reduction. This growing conviction stems from the belief that eurozone inflation is steadily approaching the ECB’s 2% target by year-end. Concerns that tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump may further strain an already fragile eurozone economy have only strengthened expectations of continued monetary easing in the months ahead.

Several ECB officials have recently voiced support for additional stimulus, emphasizing that inflation remains vulnerable to the downside. Their statements reflect a broad consensus within the governing council to maintain an accommodative stance as the region continues to face both internal weaknesses and external economic headwinds. In this context, market speculation has intensified, with many expecting the ECB to act sooner rather than later to prevent deflationary pressures from becoming entrenched.

Meanwhile, hopes for a near-term trade deal between the United States and the European Union have faded. During Tuesday’s European trading hours, EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic noted that the bloc is focusing on strengthening ties with other trading partners, who together account for 87% of the EU’s exports, according to The Straits Times. When asked about the status of U.S.-EU trade talks, Sefcovic reiterated the EU’s interest in achieving a fair and balanced agreement but highlighted Washington’s apparent reluctance to meaningfully engage in negotiations.

On the other side of the globe, Australia’s economic outlook remains heavily linked to demand from China. A de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions could enhance China’s growth prospects, indirectly supporting the Australian dollar (AUD). Conversely, if talks break down or rhetoric between the two powers intensifies, risk sentiment could deteriorate, limiting the upside potential for the AUD.

Domestically, political uncertainty in Australia has eased following Saturday’s federal election, which delivered a decisive win for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s Labor Party. While the outcome had minimal direct impact on the foreign exchange market, it reinforced expectations for policy continuity and a stable investment environment.

On the economic front, inflation in Australia remains above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target band but is gradually moderating. The labor market continues to show resilience, though recent data suggests a slight slowdown in job creation. The RBA is expected to keep interest rates steady in the near term while closely monitoring inflation trends and wage growth. Overall, domestic conditions appear neutral for the AUD, making external factors—such as Federal Reserve policy moves and the trajectory of the Chinese economy—key drivers of AUD performance in the coming weeks. Divergence at Support Could Spark New EURAUD Rally_1

Divergence at Support Could Spark New EURAUD Rally_1

Technical Analysis

EURAUD has been in a corrective phase since reaching the 1.8564 high on April 8, pulling back to a recent low of 1.7390. This retracement has created a bullish divergence on the RSI indicator, as the RSI registered a lower low while the price did not, suggesting weakening bearish momentum and the potential for buyers to regain control. The RSI has now dropped to 32, nearing oversold territory, which could draw the attention of bullish traders.

The 100- and 200-period moving averages currently sit at 1.7663 and 1.7225, levels that are closely aligned with the area highlighted by the RSI divergence. Price action was recently rejected from support at 1.7426—previously a resistance zone—now acting as a potential springboard for further gains. This shift from resistance to support is a bullish signal and may suggest that the broader uptrend is still intact.

If the price holds above this key support, a new upward move could be initiated, targeting the 1.8133 zone as the next significant resistance. However, if the pair breaks below this level, the bullish setup would be invalidated, potentially leading to fresh lows and renewed downside pressure.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.7575

Target price: 1.8133

Stop loss: 1.7180

Validity: May 16, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The U.S. Dollar fell against the Swiss Franc on Wednesday, breaking below recent range support as geopolitical tensions and dovish expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy stance weighed on the greenback

SELL USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.82150

Entry Price

0.80390

0.82800

0.79582 +0.00060 +0.08%

65.0

Pips

Loss

0.80390

0.82802

Exit Price

0.82150

Entry Price

0.82800

The U.S. Dollar came under renewed pressure on Wednesday, pushing USD/CHF decisively lower and marking a notable technical breakdown as investors responded to a confluence of macroeconomic caution, global political risks, and an increasingly dovish bias in dollar sentiment. The currency pair has breached the lower bound of its eleven-day trading range, dropping below the 0.8212 level during European trade, reflecting growing demand for the Swiss Franc amid risk-averse flows.

The broader U.S. Dollar Index, or DXY, continued its downward drift, trading near 99.35 as markets moved into the second consecutive day of losses. Traders are exercising caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement later today, the culmination of a two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. While no change to the benchmark federal funds rate is expected, the tone of Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks will be dissected in search of clues regarding the timing and magnitude of potential rate cuts later this year.

The Fed will not be releasing updated forecasts or a Summary of Economic Projections until its next meeting on June 17–18, making Powell’s language during the post-meeting press conference particularly impactful. In recent weeks, incoming U.S. data has presented a mixed picture. On the one hand, April’s ISM Services PMI printed at 51.6, signaling ongoing but subdued expansion in the service sector. On the other, Nonfarm Payrolls for the same month came in stronger than expected at 177,000, suggesting the labor market remains relatively firm. Yet the GDP growth outlook for the second quarter remains uncertain, with various forecasting models pointing to a range between 1.1 percent and 2.3 percent annualized growth.

This uneven economic backdrop has led to tempered expectations regarding the Fed’s next move. Rate futures suggest the market is still pricing in a cumulative 40 to 50 basis points of cuts by December, but the confidence behind that assumption has weakened amid conflicting signals and the Fed’s own ambiguity. If Powell maintains a cautious stance tonight and refrains from offering any clear dovish pivot, the Dollar may find some footing. However, a more conciliatory message—especially one that acknowledges global fragility—could accelerate the Dollar’s descent.

Simultaneously, developments in Asia have stirred further volatility in the foreign exchange space. Monday’s dramatic move in the Taiwan Dollar, which surged over 1.5 percent intraday before retracing some gains, has prompted renewed focus on capital flows and potential contagion across the region. Although Taiwan’s central bank intervened to calm the market, the abrupt appreciation has shaken confidence in the stability of Asian currency management frameworks. This, in turn, has fed into a broader narrative of uncertainty that has propelled safe-haven currencies like the Swiss Franc higher.

In Switzerland, the policy outlook remains complicated by the country’s latest inflation data. April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in flat on an annualized basis, with core inflation slowing sharply to 0.6 percent from the previous month’s 0.9 percent. This marked deceleration in core prices suggests that domestic demand pressures remain muted and has fueled speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may lean toward another rate cut at its June 19 policy meeting.

The Swiss Franc’s strength, although welcome from a safe-haven perspective, risks importing deflation if it continues unchecked. The SNB, well aware of these risks, has left the door open to foreign exchange intervention as a policy tool and may resume outright currency purchases if the Franc appreciates significantly further. Market pricing currently implies about 40 basis points of easing from the SNB over the coming quarter, and analysts are beginning to speculate whether a return to negative policy rates is once again on the table.

Compounding these pressures are mounting geopolitical tensions across Europe and the Middle East. In Germany, political uncertainty has spiked following the unexpected election of Friedrich Merz as Chancellor in a second-round parliamentary vote, after falling short during the first round. Meanwhile, the protracted conflicts in both Ukraine and Gaza continue to cast a long shadow over global risk sentiment. As a result, capital continues to rotate into traditional safe havens—including the Swiss Franc, gold, and U.S. Treasuries.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, USD/CHF has confirmed a bearish breakout. For the past eleven sessions, the pair had been contained within a relatively well-defined range, bounded by support at 0.8195 to 0.8212 and resistance between 0.8318 and 0.8333. Throughout this period, repeated attempts to climb above the 100- and 200-hour moving averages—both converging near 0.8254—have failed, underscoring the persistent selling pressure at higher levels.

Now that price has slipped below the lower edge of the established range, attention turns to the next zone of support between 0.8097 and 0.8128. This area, last tested in early March, could serve as a temporary cushion if downside momentum continues. Should those levels give way, traders will inevitably eye the 2025 low at 0.8039 as a potential next destination.

Momentum indicators are confirming the bearish tilt, and with the pair unable to sustain upward thrusts beyond intraday resistance levels, the path of least resistance appears tilted to the downside. The fundamental landscape, dominated by a weakening Dollar, global risk aversion, and Swiss inflation dynamics, reinforces this technical bias.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL USDCHF

ENTRY PRICE: 0.8215

STOP LOSS: 0.8280

TAKE PROFIT: 0.8039

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

Gold holds steady near $3,390 as markets await the Fed’s interest rate decision and renewed US-China trade talks. Investors eye key technical support at $3,350 amid geopolitical tensions and cautious sentiment.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3389.76

Entry Price

3500.00

3320.00

4299.39 +20.10 +0.47%

697.6

Pips

Loss

3320.00

3318.86

Exit Price

3389.76

Entry Price

3500.00

Gold prices are trading in a narrow band on Wednesday, holding steady near the $3,390 mark during the European session. Investors appear to be in a state of suspension ahead of the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated interest rate decision later today, and fresh developments in US-China trade relations that could reshape broader market sentiment. The precious metal, which recently surged to historic highs, has now paused for breath as traders weigh a complex backdrop of monetary policy signals, diplomatic overtures, and underlying geopolitical tensions.

At present, market participants are not pricing in a policy shift from the Federal Reserve. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 95.6% probability that the central bank will hold rates steady at its current level. This means that unless the Fed delivers a surprise rate cut—an unlikely scenario based on recent statements and market expectations—today’s rate announcement may be more of a “non-event” in terms of immediate rate changes. However, the tone and forward guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during his post-decision press conference could have significant implications for gold and the broader asset complex. Investors will be listening closely for any dovish nuances that suggest the Fed may be considering rate cuts in the second half of the year, especially if economic activity continues to soften.

Despite repeated public pressure from President Donald Trump urging the central bank to adopt a more accommodative stance, the Fed has so far maintained its data-dependent posture. Powell has remained committed to resisting political influence, instead insisting that policy adjustments will be driven by macroeconomic indicators, particularly inflation data and labor market dynamics. With inflation cooling and recent manufacturing and consumer data pointing to potential cracks in the economy’s resilience, the case for rate cuts is gradually building. But for now, the Fed appears set to hold its ground and await more concrete signals.

Meanwhile, geopolitical dynamics are contributing to a layer of uncertainty. The United States and China have announced that they will reopen trade dialogue this weekend in Switzerland. The upcoming talks, led on the American side by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on the other, are being framed not as formal negotiations, but rather as discussions aimed at de-escalation. Bessent, speaking on Fox News, clarified that the initial goal is to dial down trade tensions that have burdened global supply chains and stoked inflationary pressures in both economies.

While investors welcome any diplomatic engagement that could avoid the escalation of tariffs or a breakdown in trade flows, the impact on gold has been somewhat mixed. Typically, uncertainty around global trade tends to support safe-haven demand, but the tentative optimism surrounding renewed talks has, at least for now, subdued some of that risk premium in the gold market.

This slightly more constructive tone in trade relations comes even as other geopolitical risks remain elevated. Overnight, news broke that Pakistan had downed five Indian military aircraft in response to Indian strikes, claiming to have taken several soldiers prisoner. Historically, military skirmishes between nuclear-armed neighbors like India and Pakistan would trigger a sharp rise in haven assets. Yet, in today’s trading, the impact on gold has been surprisingly muted. This reflects a market that is currently far more reactive to macroeconomic policy cues than to geopolitical flashpoints—at least in the short term.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, gold’s recent surge was remarkably swift, leaving few clear entry points for new buyers. Now that prices are correcting slightly, traders may be viewing this as a potential re-entry opportunity. The 3350–3360 zone is emerging as a critical support area. If prices remain above this band, the market could consolidate before attempting another move toward recent highs. A break below this zone, however, could see gold test the 3330 level—a pivotal technical support that could either act as a springboard or signal the beginning of a deeper correction.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3390

STOP LOSS: 3320

TAKE PROFIT: 3500

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

USD/JPY weakens to 143.40 as US-China trade talks lift risk appetite and weigh on the dollar. Technicals point to further downside unless 144.26 is reclaimed.

SELL USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

143.300

Entry Price

139.830

145.000

155.814 +0.255 +0.16%

170.0

Pips

Loss

139.830

145.004

Exit Price

143.300

Entry Price

145.000

The USD/JPY currency pair has come under renewed selling pressure this week, sliding to levels around 143.40 as investors respond positively to an apparent thaw in US-China trade relations. This shift in geopolitical tone, combined with softer demand for the US dollar ahead of a pivotal Federal Reserve policy meeting, has triggered renewed interest in the Japanese yen—a traditional safe-haven currency that appears to be gaining on the back of easing uncertainty rather than outright panic.

In recent sessions, the announcement that senior US and Chinese trade representatives will convene in Switzerland to resume formal discussions has prompted a reassessment of risk across global financial markets. After months of diplomatic friction and tariff-related threats, the move toward dialogue represents a clear shift in sentiment. It follows an unsettling episode earlier in the week when former President Donald Trump—widely seen as a likely 2024 candidate—announced 100 percent tariffs on US-produced films and warned that levies on pharmaceuticals could be announced shortly. Those remarks initially spooked markets and briefly sent the dollar higher against the yen, but the reversal in risk appetite has since dictated a different trajectory.

Technical Analysis

At the technical level, USD/JPY’s recent failure to reclaim and hold above the important pivot zone between 144.26 and 143.84 has proven pivotal. The rejection from this band has confirmed resistance in the near term, and the subsequent decline in price action suggests that bearish momentum is once again asserting itself. The currency pair’s trajectory now appears to be slanting downward, with the immediate downside target forming near the 141.97 region. A decisive break below that support area could expose the pair to further declines, potentially toward the next cushion around 141.02. If broader market sentiment remains favorable toward risk assets and the dollar continues to weaken, a drop toward the 139.83 threshold cannot be ruled out.

Conversely, should the pair manage to regain its footing and post a convincing close above 144.26, the technical outlook could shift to a more constructive stance. In such a scenario, upside resistance would be expected near 144.96, and eventually around the 146.33 area.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL USDJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 143.30

STOP LOSS: 145.00

TAKE PROFIT: 139.83

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Forex

Summary:

On the M15 chart on 07/05/2025, EUR/GBP is trading around 0.8500 after a slight increase from 0.8479 in the previous session, supported by expectations that the ECB will cut interest rates in June to deal with slowing inflation while the BoE may wait for more data before cutting interest rates...

BUY EURGBP

Close Time

CLOSED

0.85200

Entry Price

0.86000

0.84600

0.87789 +0.00113 +0.13%

60.0

Pips

Loss

0.84600

Exit Price

0.85200

Entry Price

0.86000

Overview

EUR/GBP M15 opened at 0.8494 and closed the session temporarily at 0.8500, showing a slight recovery after hitting a low of 0.8479 earlier in the session.. The eurozone just announced that April CPI remained at 2.2%, below the peak, creating expectations that the ECB will continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its June meeting. In contrast, the BoE remained cautious after keeping interest rates at 5.00%, which limited the strength of the pound in the short term.

Money flows into the euro were supported by eurozone PMI reports showing manufacturing and services recovered slightly in April, supporting the common currency.

Market psychology

Investors reflected a slight optimism about the prospects of a European economic recovery, following April’s PMI of 54.1 for services and 51.2 for manufacturing, indicating that business activity remained above the 50 mark. The VIX fear index fell slightly, reflecting a flight to riskier assets such as Europe. The carry trade perspective also supported EUR/GBP as the ECB’s interest rate, despite the cut, was still higher than the BoE’s forecast for rates beyond July.

Technical analysis

EUR/GBP shows slight recovery after bottoming_1

Bollinger Bands (20,0,2) narrowed around 0.8480–0.8520, signaling low volatility in preparation for a new uptrend as the price breaks above the middle band. Ichimoku shows Tenkan-sen crossing above Kijun-sen and the price is trading above the Kumo cloud, confirming the short-term bullish signal. Stochastic (5,3,3) has left the oversold zone and is heading up, implying increasing buying momentum. MACD on the H1 chart also gave a positive divergence signal, supporting the uptrend on M15.