The US Dollar advanced firmly across major currency pairs on Thursday, lifted by a sweeping repricing of Federal Reserve expectations and a technical landscape that continues to skew in favor of the bulls. The USD Index (DXY) climbed into the 100.35–100.50 region — a critical ceiling that capped upside attempts in May, August, and early November — as investors increasingly retreat from earlier assumptions that the Fed will cut rates again in December.

The move follows the release of hawkish minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, which fueled renewed USD demand already supported by risk-averse market sentiment earlier in the week. While the Fed delivered a quarter-point rate cut on October 29, the minutes revealed a surprisingly divided committee, with “many” officials opposing the decision — a signal that policymakers remain hesitant about easing too aggressively while inflation risks linger.

For investors, the message was simple: the Fed is nowhere near unanimous on additional easing, and the December meeting could be far less dovish than the market had priced in. As a result, rate-cut odds receded sharply, giving the Dollar fresh momentum at a time when global growth concerns and softer equity sentiment already favored safe-haven flows.

The Fed’s internal disagreement has forced traders to reassess the policy outlook going into year-end. While October’s rate cut was largely seen as part of a dovish pivot, the minutes suggest the central bank is not prepared to commit to a multi-step easing cycle without more evidence of economic cooling.

The next major catalyst arrives Friday with the long-delayed September Nonfarm Payrolls figures. Economists expect the US economy to have added 55,000 jobs — an improvement from August’s meager 22,000, yet still well below the 2024 monthly average. A stronger-than-expected print would further complicate the case for easing and could embolden USD bulls ahead of the December 10 Fed meeting.

From a technical perspective, DXY continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel, carving out higher lows while maintaining structure above mid-channel support. This pattern has held steady throughout the autumn, with the October rate-cut reaction generating a clean bullish leg that may now be developing into a broader impulsive wave.

The current pullback is unfolding precisely at a key demand zone that aligns with channel support — a confluence typically associated with continuation setups rather than reversals. Higher-timeframe supply remains overhead, yet with structure intact, the narrative increasingly favors additional USD appreciation.

For conviction of a sustained breakout, traders are watching the daily resistance at 100.54. A clean move above this zone — which has repeatedly rejected bulls since May — would open a relatively unobstructed path toward 102.00, a major daily resistance level reinforced by the 50-month SMA. This confluence serves as a clear medium-term target for Dollar bulls and could define the next phase of the USD’s broader recovery.

BUY DXY

ENTRY PRICE: 100.30

STOP LOSS: 99.00

TAKE PROFIT: 102.00

EUR/USD extended its decline for a fifth consecutive session on Thursday, sliding to 1.1525 during the European trading hours after failing to hold above the 1.1600 handle on Wednesday. The renewed weakness in the euro comes as the U.S. Dollar continues to assert dominance across the FX board, bolstered by a hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve’s October meeting minutes and a cautious market mood ahead of the September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release.

The Fed minutes, published late Wednesday, reaffirmed policymakers’ strong reluctance to cut interest rates prematurely. According to the document, many officials expressed concern that easing too soon could undermine progress in the inflation fight and risk eroding public confidence in the central bank’s credibility. This marks one of the more hawkish shifts in tone seen in months, effectively cooling a wave of dovish bets that had built up through October and early November.

Market pricing adjusted swiftly. The probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the December 10 FOMC meeting plunged below 30%, down from 50% just a day earlier and more than 90% only a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The sharp repricing has revived the Greenback’s bullish momentum, with traders re-entering long-dollar positions as U.S. yields stabilize at elevated levels.

The euro, meanwhile, faced its own headwinds. Eurozone Construction Output data revealed a deepening contraction in September, amplifying concerns about Europe’s weakening growth profile. The bloc continues to struggle with feeble industrial activity and softening labor-market indicators, all while inflation trends lower at a pace that underscores policymakers' concerns about stagnation.

Later today, investors will scrutinize Germany’s Bundesbank Monthly Report for fresh insight into the Eurozone’s largest economy, which has been battling persistent manufacturing weakness. Markets will also monitor the European Commission’s preliminary November Consumer Confidence data—figures that could influence sentiment toward the euro should households signal deeper pessimism heading into the winter months.

Across the Atlantic, focus is locked squarely on Friday’s NFP report, with markets looking for clearer signals on the resilience of the U.S. labor market. A stronger-than-expected print would likely reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance and add further downside pressure on EUR/USD, while a softer figure may offer temporary relief for the pair. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey is also on traders’ radar as a secondary risk catalyst.

EUR/USD attempted a brief intraday rebound on Thursday, but the bounce appears shallow and primarily driven by oversold conditions on momentum indicators rather than genuine buying conviction. Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings show tentative positive signals, yet the pair continues to trade below a minor descending trendline that has guided price action throughout November.

The broader structure remains decisively bearish. The sustained inability to hold above 1.1600 confirms sellers’ control, with the next notable support zone located near 1.1467. A decisive break below that level would open the door to deeper losses, particularly if U.S. data continues to outperform Eurozone figures.

SELL EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.1515

STOP LOSS: 1.1570

TAKE PROFIT: 1.1467

The British Pound extended its advance against a broadly weaker Japanese Yen on Thursday, with GBP/JPY holding comfortably above the 205 handle as mounting policy divergence and renewed fiscal speculation in Tokyo kept the Japanese currency under sustained selling pressure.

The cross, which briefly touched a fresh 16-month high just above 206.00 earlier in the week, has since eased slightly but remains supported near 205.75 at the time of writing. The pair found strong buying interest around 205.35—its previous year-to-date peak—suggesting that bullish sentiment is still firmly anchored despite a temporary loss of upside momentum.

The Yen’s latest depreciation continues a trend seen over the past several sessions, driven primarily by waning concerns about foreign-exchange intervention and renewed expectations of aggressive fiscal action in Japan. Investors, who had previously speculated that Tokyo might step into markets to curb rapid Yen weakness, appear more confident that authorities are currently reluctant to act.

That view was reinforced on Wednesday when Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated that she had not discussed currency matters during a meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. Markets interpreted the remark as a sign that policymakers remain comfortable with the current exchange-rate dynamics, even as the Yen trades near historically weak levels against major peers.

At the same time, Japanese media reports suggesting that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is preparing a stimulus package worth roughly $21 billion added further downward pressure on the currency. The proposed measures—intended to help households manage persistent cost-of-living pressures—would come as Japan grapples with rising inflation and limited fiscal room. For traders, the prospect of an additional fiscal boost implies further strain on public finances and the possibility of sustained monetary-policy accommodation, both of which weigh on the Yen.

In contrast, the macroeconomic backdrop in the United Kingdom remains mixed. UK inflation data released Wednesday showed consumer prices slowing to 3.6% year-on-year in October, easing from the 3.8% pace recorded over the previous three months. While still above the Bank of England’s 2% target, the continued deceleration bolsters expectations that policymakers may proceed with additional rate cuts over the coming months. That prospect has capped some of the Pound’s upside momentum, though the currency remains well supported against the Yen given Japan’s comparatively more dovish stance.

GBP/JPY continues to show a constructive technical profile, having already met the 2.00% Fibonacci extension level at 205.25—an initial upside target highlighted in earlier analyses. The pair’s recent consolidation appears to reflect a temporary pause as markets await renewed bullish momentum.

A sustained break and daily close above the current resistance zone would strengthen the case for a continuation of the uptrend, potentially opening the path toward 206.70 and ultimately the next medium-term target around 208.00. Failure to overcome this resistance, however, could trigger short-term volatility or a corrective pullback, with 203.70 acting as a key support to watch.

For Thursday’s session, the expected trading range is projected between 204.45 and 205.70, with the broader trend bias remaining firmly bullish.

BUY GBPJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 205.80

STOP LOSS: 204.50

TAKE PROFIT: 208.00

The most significant fundamental change for Bitcoin is the large-scale outflow from institutional investors.

According to reports by Reuters and CoinDesk, BlackRock's flagship Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) recorded a record single-day net outflow of $523 million. This exacerbated the cumulative net redemptions seen throughout the month, pushing the total ETF outflows to the billions of dollars level. The shift to net outflows directly weakened spot market buying power, causing the price to briefly break below the key psychological level of approximately $90,000. The pace of institutional outflows has also exposed previously marginal long positions—those that entered the market via ETFs—to selling pressure. Data from Bloomberg also shows that the average entry cost for recent new investors is around $89,600. This means that as prices fall, it could trigger a cascade of stop-loss and short-selling orders, further amplifying volatility.

In addition, macroeconomic factors are compounding sentiment: the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook isn't noticeably dovish, and the U.S. dollar remains strong, reducing the appeal of risk assets. At the same time, concerns over an "overheated capital withdrawal" and deleveraging force some short-term arbitrage and leveraged positions to close, contributing to the downward momentum. While large-scale redemptions from ETFs are the immediate trigger, the broader macro capital flows are the key determinants of Bitcoin's medium-term direction.

Based on the daily chart, Bitcoin broke below the key support level of $99,000 last Friday, opening up further downside potential. The first major downside target may be around the $75,000 support level. Moreover, the continued downward trend over recent trading sessions indicates that bearish sentiment currently dominates the overall market.

At present, the key resistance zone is around $95,000. If Bitcoin fails to hold firmly above this area, it will be difficult for bulls to regain control in the short term. The near-term support zone lies between $86,500, and a break below that could see the next historical buying zone near $80,000 reactivated. Trading volumes have expanded during declines but remained weak during rebounds, suggesting that current rallies are more likely to be technical pullbacks after forced liquidations, rather than signs of sustained buying by capital inflows.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 92300

Target price: 78000

Stop loss: 96000

Valid Until: December 04, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 88611/75000

Resistance: 95000/99000

The Federal Reserve's dovish outlook has softened, leading to a decline in investor risk appetite and putting downward pressure on the euro. The latest harmonized Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the Eurozone indicates that overall inflation increased month-on-month from 0.1% in September to 0.2% in October, while the annual growth rate slowed slightly from 2.2% to 2.1%, edging closer to the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target. Core inflation rose to 0.3% month-on-month but remained stable at 2.4% year-on-year. These figures send an intriguing signal: after energy and certain commodity prices stabilized, overall Eurozone inflationary pressures continue to ease, while services and core components maintain moderate stickiness. This combination neither justifies new monetary tightening nor compels the ECB to rapidly shift towards aggressive easing, aligning more with a neutral, dovish stance of maintaining restrictive rates over the medium term while remaining prepared to respond to economic downturns. For the euro, this implies limited carry trade advantages and a lack of clear support from interest rate expectations. Looking ahead, the euro will be influenced by the HCOB preliminary purchasing managers' index (PMI) data for November, which is scheduled for release on Friday.

Recent movements in the EURUSD exchange rate are influenced less by fundamental factors such as interest rates and inflation, and more by the cumulative effects of macroeconomic developments and risk sentiment. On one hand, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in December have diminished, with CME FedWatch indicating the probability of a 25-basis-point reduction to 3.50%-3.75% dropping from 50.1% to 32.8%. A month ago, the market overwhelmingly anticipated a rate cut, with probabilities as high as 96%. On the other hand, recent global equity market sell-offs have reinforced risk aversion. In an environment of waning risk appetite, the U.S. dollar, traditionally perceived as a safe-haven currency, has attracted capital inflows. Investors have reduced holdings in equities and certain high-risk assets, reallocating funds into cash and highly liquid instruments. This "risk-averse dollar buying" often temporarily offsets the negative impact of weakening rate expectations, enabling the U.S. Dollar Index to remain robust at high levels and causing the euro to retreat below the 1.16 level amid consolidation. Structural changes within the U.S. macroeconomic fundamentals indicate that weak employment data is somewhat constraining the outlook for consumer spending, real estate, and the service sector. Conversely, August factory orders posted a month-on-month increase of 1.4%, aligning with market expectations and partially offsetting the previous 1.3% decline. Manufacturing demand has not experienced a sharp slowdown but is instead exhibiting a pattern of "gradual deceleration amid volatility." This structural composition causes the Federal Reserve to adopt a data-dependent approach to policy, refraining from issuing a clear easing timeline. Some officials emphasize the need for additional data to determine the next policy direction, which to some extent suppresses market expectations for rapid rate cuts and limits downside potential for the U.S. dollar.

In the 1D timeframe, following a MACD golden cross, the MACD line and signal line have retracted towards the zero-axis, indicating potential trend reversal signals. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with SMAs diverging downward, and the price is oscillating along the EMA12. A significant bearish candlestick was observed yesterday, with RSI at 39, reflecting increasing market pessimism. Current price action remains within the descending channel; unless the upper boundary is broken, a retest of the lower Bollinger Band around 1.148 is likely. In the 1W timeframe, Bollinger Bands are converging narrowly, EMA 12 is turning downward, and following the MACD death cross, the MACD line and signal line are retuning toward the zero-axis with some distance remaining, suggesting the downtrend may not be complete. RSI at 49 shows a gradual decline in highs, indicating strong market caution. Short-term support levels are positioned near the lower/middle Bollinger Band and EMA50. It is recommended to go short at the highs in the short term.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.152

Target Price: 1.12

Stop Loss: 1.175

Support: 1.145, 1.14, 1.12

Resistance: 1.182, 1.192, 1.2

The Central Bank of Russia is no longer content with token additions to its gold reserves. It has launched a full-scale offensive, sweeping up every good-delivery bar the domestic market can furnish. In a world where sanction-bound reserves are immobilised, dollar assets are frozen, and geopolitics is redrawing the global map, the Kremlin has concluded that the only balance-sheet item still capable of crossing borders unhindered is bullion.

Behind the headlines lies far more than Moscow's well-worn mantra of "buy gold, dump dollars". The liquidity dynamics of the Russian gold market have quietly shifted, enabling the central bank to scale its operations to levels that would have been operationally impossible only a few years ago. This is not a publicity stunt. It is a structural inflection point that is injecting fresh momentum into a market already primed by fear, fiscal deficits and the accelerating dedollarisation narrative.

For years, thin on-shore liquidity stymied sustained accumulation. Despite ranking as the world's second-largest producer, Russian miners could sell only at the pace the domestic clearing system could absorb. Sanctions severed the international outlet, yet—perversely—they have also forced the ecosystem to mature.

The turnover rate has already reached a level at which the central bank can execute matched CNY-and-gold transactions to rotate assets for the National Wealth Fund with the same precision a liability-driven-investment (LDI) portfolio manager uses to fine-tune duration and collateral mix. The crux is that the North-West financial architecture—currently weighted around 60% RMB and 40% monetary gold—now functions as a fiscal shock absorber for the federal budget deficit in Moscow. Every uptick in the global gold price therefore not only swells the reserve base but also expands the rouble liquidity envelope that can be tapped without touching the sovereign's frozen Western assets. A higher mark-to-market valuation translates directly into a wider political option set. In short, Russia is not merely accumulating bullion—it has re-engineered its entire reserve framework around gold as the core asset.

While headlines focus on the $300+ billion of Russian reserves immobilised abroad, inside Russia the bullion that has been freed from domestic vaults is being monetised in real time to fund military spending. For global traders this distinction is critical. A top-three producer has been severed from the international financial system, its policy reaction function reshaped by sanctions, domestic rouble liquidity ballooning, and its reserve-management office now treating gold as an operational instrument rather than a macro hedge. When a central bank sitting on almost $720 bn of reserves (including frozen assets) concludes that only physical gold is a "clean" settlement asset, the resulting flow becomes a structural bid that cannot be ignored. It is a slow-motion but powerful source of demand that is appearing just as the other drivers of gold—declining real yields, brittle geopolitics and the steady de-dollarisation wave—are already repricing the metal to a new equilibrium. In effect, Russia has become a price-insensitive, forced buyer of its own output.

China is accumulating quietly but at scale. The Global South continues to add. Western portfolios remain structurally under-weight. Each time the market tries to declare gold "soft", another sovereign reminds participants that, in a fragmented monetary architecture, the gold is the only asset that cannot be frozen. That is why dips are shallow and why any window of weakness is instantly filled by physical offtake. Gold is no longer merely a trade. It is becoming the settlement medium of a world in which trust is evaporating faster than liquidity.

The recent U.S. federal-government shutdown delayed the release of key employment reports, amplifying macro uncertainty and complicating the Fed's assessment of labor-market conditions. That dynamic has, in turn, lifted demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. Investors will scrutinize the belated September non-farm payroll (NFP) release for evidence of the labor market's underlying health and for clearer guidance on the U.S. rate trajectory. A print below consensus would raise the probability of a December rate cut and thereby provide additional upside to bullion; lower policy rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Conversely, a diminution in near-term easing expectations would exert downward pressure on gold prices.

The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's October 28–29 meeting revealed that Fed officials were divided and cautious about the future path of interest rates. Although the Committee ultimately decided to cut the policy rate by 25 bp, the decision was not unanimous. Some participants leaned against an additional reduction at the December meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market now assigns a roughly 30% probability to a rate cut next month, down from about 60% a week earlier.

The Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart are contracting, with bandwidth narrowing significantly. After a brief break above the psychological 4,100 level, the gold price met strong resistance and reversed. The short-term downtrend remains intact. The MACD is on the verge of forming a bearish crossover. Both the fast and slow lines have pulled back to the zero axis, raising the probability of a sudden directional shift. RSI reads 45, reflecting pronounced bearish sentiment. Immediate resistance is at 4,100, followed by 4,150.

Daily Time Frame:

On the daily chart, the MACD histogram's upward momentum is visibly waning while price has failed to print a higher high—classic bearish divergence. The probability of a continued pullback is elevated. Downside support rests first at the lower Bollinger Band (3,878) and then at the EMA50 (3,956). RSI sits at 52, placing price in a wait-and-see zone, but successive lower highs reinforce the bearish bias.

Therefore, traders are recommended to take a strategy of selling into rallies.

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 4070

Target Price: 3600

Stop Loss: 4390

Support: 3900/3800/3600

Resistance Levels: 4380/4500/5000