Bearish Outlook Amid Supply Surplus and Weak Demand

Alan

Commodity

Summary:

The aggressive production increase strategy of OPEC+ is set to drive oil prices lower.

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

57.068

Entry Price

51.000

59.700

65.449 -1.548 -2.31%

263.2

Pips

Loss

51.000

59.705

Exit Price

57.068

Entry Price

59.700

Fundamentals

The aggressive production increase strategy of OPEC+ has shattered market expectations of supply contraction. On Saturday, OPEC+ announced a second consecutive monthly acceleration in production increases, with an additional 411,000 b/d in June. The group also plans to further expand production in July. This decision reflects a long-term adaptation strategy by core members like Saudi Arabia, shifting from "price support" to "market share competition".

Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman has explicitly stated a preference for low prices to suppress marginal production capacities in the US shale oil and Russian sectors, rather than supporting prices through production cuts. This policy shift has significantly increased the global crude oil supply surplus, especially as non-OPEC+ countries like Brazil and Canada also increase production, further squeezing market balance.

On the demand side, the dual pressures of a global economic slowdown and trade friction have led to a collapse in crude oil consumption expectations. The US economy contracted for the first time in three years in Q1. The ongoing Sino-US tariff war has prompted the International Energy Agency (IEA) to downgrade its 2025 oil demand growth forecast to 73,000 b/d.

Additionally, China's accelerated energy transition has led to an early peak in crude oil demand, with refinery utilization rates falling and weak diesel consumption further eroding market confidence.

Technical Analysis

Bearish Outlook Amid Supply Surplus and Weak Demand_1

The daily chart of WTI crude oil shows a clear bearish trend, with the candlestick pattern indicating sustained downward momentum. The moving average system is in a bearish alignment, reinforcing the strength of the downtrend.

On Monday, WTI crude oil gapped lower, forming a bearish gap. The price is currently in a corrective phase to fill the gap. After the gap is closed, the likelihood of a continuation of the previous downtrend is high.

The first downside target is the previous low at $55.07. If this level is breached, further downside potential could open up, with a potential test of the $50.00 psychological level.

In conclusion, traders are advised to focus on selling rallies.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 57.60

Target Price: 51.00

Stop Loss: 59.70

Valid Until: May 19, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 55.07/50.00

Resistance: 59.52/61.64

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

On May 5, 2025, the EUR/USD currency pair is trading around 1.1340, reflecting the tug-of-war between ECB rate cut expectations and strong economic data from the US. In the coming period, the trend of EUR/USD may continue to be influenced by technical factors and economic news...

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.13400

Entry Price

1.13000

1.14200

1.16061 +0.00293 +0.25%

26.9

Pips

Profit

1.13000

1.13131

Exit Price

1.13400

Entry Price

1.14200

Market Overview

As of 18:50 GMT+7 on May 5, 2025, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1340, reflecting the tug-of-war between ECB rate cut expectations and strong economic data from the US. Specifically:

US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April came in at 177,000, beating the forecast of 130,000, but downward revisions in previous months dampened the positive impact of this report.

The US ISM Services PMI is expected to fall, indicating weakness in the services sector, which could weigh on the USD.

The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index rose to -8.1 in May from -19.5, indicating an improvement in investor sentiment in the region.

Market psychology

The current market sentiment shows concern about the global economic outlook and interest rate policy. The RSI(14) is at 60.36, indicating a buying bias. The Stochastic(9,6) is at 54.965, indicating a neutral signal. The Stochastic RSI(14) is at 100, indicating an overbought signal.

Technical analysis

EUR/USD Sustains Below 1.1340: Short-Term Downward Pressure or Consolidation Before Breakout?_1

Bollinger Bands (20,0,2) : Price is hovering near support at 1.1300 and resistance at 1.1380. Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating reduced volatility and a potential breakout.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9,26,52) : Price is below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a downtrend. Tenkan-sen line crosses below Kijun-sen, confirming a sell signal.

Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) : The Stochastic indicator is in the neutral zone, indicating a short-term recovery before continuing the downtrend.

Trading Recommendations

Entry: 1.1340

Take Profit: 1.1300

Stop Loss: 1.1420

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

On May 5, 2025, the GBP/JPY pair fell below the 192 mark, reflecting cautious market sentiment on factors such as the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) interest rate policy and weak economic data from the UK.

SELL GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

191.600

Entry Price

190.700

192.300

197.057 -0.505 -0.26%

47.1

Pips

Profit

190.700

191.129

Exit Price

191.600

Entry Price

192.300

Market Overview

As of 18:47 GMT+7 on 05/05/2025, GBP/JPY is trading around 191.59, down 0.19% from the previous day. This weakness comes after the pair failed to overcome the strong resistance at 193.75, indicating increased selling pressure from the high price zone.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept interest rates on hold at 0.5%, but trade risks clouded the outlook. USD/JPY and GBP/JPY rose, with speculators eyeing the 145 and 193 levels, respectively.

Market psychology

The current market sentiment shows concern about the global economic outlook and interest rate policy. The RSI(14) is at 41.613, indicating a sell bias. The Stochastic(9.6) is at 41.701, also showing a sell signal.

Trading data shows large investors are adjusting positions and moving away from risky assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks, seeking safety in defensive assets like gold and bonds.

Technical analysis

GBP/JPY Drops Below 192: Reversal Signal Or Short-Term Correction?_1

Bollinger Bands (20,0,2) : Price is hovering near support at 191.24 and resistance at 192.32. Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating reduced volatility and a possible price breakout.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9,26,52) : Price is below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a downtrend. Tenkan-sen line crosses below Kijun-sen, confirming a sell signal.

Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) : The Stochastic indicator is in the oversold zone, indicating a possible short-term recovery before continuing the downtrend.

Trading Recommendations

Entry: 191.60

Take Profit: 190.70

Stop Loss: 192.30

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

The U.S. dollar has experienced a sharp drop, retreating to the 1.3770 area, a level that previously acted as resistance and could now serve as a key support.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.37900

Entry Price

1.41000

1.36500

1.37113 -0.00228 -0.17%

1.1

Pips

Profit

1.36500

1.37911

Exit Price

1.37900

Entry Price

1.41000

Progress toward a trade agreement between the United States and Canada appears to be slowly taking shape. President Donald Trump revealed that newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney reached out to him personally, stating, “Let’s make a deal.” According to Trump, Carney is expected to visit the White House sometime within the next week, raising hopes for a breakthrough in bilateral negotiations that have been stalled by tariff uncertainties and political friction.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations from its April 16 meeting confirmed that Governing Council members weighed the option of either holding the policy rate steady or cutting it by 25 basis points. In the end, consensus was reached to maintain the benchmark rate at 2.75% while policymakers await further clarity on the economic impact of tariffs and broader external developments. This cautious stance highlights the central bank’s balancing act between addressing downside risks and avoiding premature policy shifts.

In the United States, labor market data offered a mixed picture. The April Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that the U.S. economy added 177,000 jobs, outperforming expectations of 130,000 and providing some temporary reassurance about the health of the labor market. However, downward revisions totaling 58,000 jobs across February and March tempered the optimism. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, and wage growth came in at 3.8% year-over-year—slightly softer than projected. Initial jobless claims rose to 241,000, the highest since mid-February, while continuing claims reached levels not seen since November 2021. These data points collectively suggest that cracks are emerging in the labor market, potentially supporting the case for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve as early as July.

Further signs of a cooling economy came from the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which slipped to 48.7 in April from 49.0 in March—remaining below the 50 threshold that signals expansion. The production component dropped significantly to 44.0, indicating weakening output. While new orders and employment components showed marginal improvement, inflationary pressures persisted. The prices paid index climbed to 69.8, its highest since mid-2022, keeping inflation concerns alive despite signs of slowing growth.

Earlier in the week, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the American economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025. This outcome sharply missed the 0.4% growth expected by economists and marked a notable deceleration from the 2.4% expansion seen in Q4 2024. The contraction arrives amid rising uncertainty surrounding the direction of U.S. trade policy under the Trump administration.

President Trump, speaking on Wednesday, admitted that the impact of current policies may take longer to become evident in the broader economy. He also sought to shift blame for the recent volatility in equity markets, pointing fingers at former President Joe Biden. These remarks came just ahead of several key data releases, including jobless claims and PMI readings, injecting additional tension into an already nervous market environment. Buyers Eye Rebound as Oversold Signals Emerge_1

Buyers Eye Rebound as Oversold Signals Emerge_1

Technical Analysis

The U.S. dollar has experienced a sharp drop, retreating to the 1.3770 area, a level that previously acted as resistance and could now serve as a key support. This zone may offer a foundation for a potential bullish reversal. On the daily chart, the RSI recently touched the 30 level, signaling oversold conditions. Historically, such levels have attracted buyers—particularly considering that similar price points were last seen in October of the previous year.

The 100-period and 200-period moving averages are positioned at 1.3654 and 1.4000, respectively, and have yet to form a bearish crossover. This technical setup increases the probability of a rebound in price. A bullish move from current levels could see USD climbing back toward the 1.4174 area, where the ascending trendline also intersects—a key technical zone that could act as a magnet in an upward move. However, a decisive breakdown below 1.3770 would invalidate this scenario and open the door for further losses, potentially accelerating the current downtrend.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3790

Target price: 1.4100

Stop loss: 1.3650

Validity: May 12, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

For now, the technical setup suggests that the bulls may still have room to push higher—at least until the price tests major resistance.

BUY USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.82500

Entry Price

0.83300

0.82000

0.81137 -0.00090 -0.11%

50.0

Pips

Loss

0.82000

0.81999

Exit Price

0.82500

Entry Price

0.83300

The April Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that the U.S. economy added 177,000 jobs, beating expectations of 130,000 and offering some relief to concerns about a sharp labor market slowdown. However, the headline beat was partially offset by downward revisions to February and March, which collectively removed 58,000 jobs from previous estimates. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, while wage growth rose 3.8% year-over-year—slightly below forecasts. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims climbed to 241,000, the highest level since mid-February, and continuing claims reached their highest point since November 2021. These figures hint at underlying softness in the labor market and have bolstered market expectations for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve as early as July.

Adding to the economic narrative, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for April dipped further to 48.7 from March’s 49.0, remaining below the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction. The production sub-index saw a notable drop to 44.0, signaling weakening output, though marginal improvements were seen in new orders and employment. On the inflation front, the prices paid index rose modestly to 69.8, its highest reading since mid-2022, keeping inflationary concerns alive despite cooling economic indicators.

Earlier in the week, data from the U.S. Department of Commerce confirmed that the economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3% in Q1 2025—well below the expected 0.4% growth and a steep decline from the 2.4% expansion in the previous quarter. This marks the first quarterly contraction in over a year and comes amid growing uncertainty over the trajectory of U.S. trade policy under President Donald Trump.

President Trump, speaking on Wednesday, acknowledged that the effects of current policies may take time to filter through the economy. He redirected blame for the recent weakness in equity markets toward former President Joe Biden. These comments arrived ahead of several key economic releases, including jobless claims and PMI reports, adding more tension to already jittery markets.

Meanwhile, concerns are also surfacing in Switzerland. On Friday, Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Martin Schlegel cautioned that an economic slowdown in Switzerland “cannot be ruled out.” Trade policy uncertainty is proving disruptive not only for large economies but also for traditionally stable nations like Switzerland. Schlegel emphasized that while price stability remains crucial, it cannot eliminate the uncertainty brought about by fragmented global trade relationships. He noted that in addition to interest rates, foreign exchange interventions remain a viable tool for shaping monetary conditions.

The Swiss franc’s sharp appreciation has created renewed deflationary pressures, prompting speculation that the SNB might consider reintroducing negative interest rates. However, the central bank appears more restrained this time, mindful of potential political pushback—especially from Washington. Upside Continuation in Focus as USDCHF Finds Fresh Support_1

Upside Continuation in Focus as USDCHF Finds Fresh Support_1

Technical Analysis

The USD/CHF pair remains in a bullish phase, having recently found support at the 200-period moving average on the 1-hour chart. The pair also rebounded from an ascending trendline, reinforcing the strength of the current uptrend. With bullish momentum picking up again, the dollar may continue climbing toward the next resistance area near 0.8330. RSI recently dipped to 31, approaching oversold territory—often a magnet for buyers looking to join the prevailing trend.

However, should the price break decisively below the ascending trendline and sustain that move, a deeper correction may be in play. In such a scenario, the next key support to watch would be around the 0.8200 level. This area could provide a short-term floor unless broader dollar weakness emerges. For now, the technical setup suggests that the bulls may still have room to push higher—at least until the price tests major resistance.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.8250

Target price: 0.8330

Stop loss: 0.8200

Validity: May 09, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

During the Asian and European trading sessions on Friday, gold prices continued to rebound, reaching levels near $3,265. The initial short-sellers' profit-taking, following the sustained selling pressure observed at the beginning of the week, has provided upward impetus to the market. Concurrently, the anticipated release of the U.S. April Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report has heightened risk-aversion sentiment, thereby offering additional support to gold prices.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3310.00

Entry Price

3162.00

3359.00

3322.67 -46.30 -1.37%

490.0

Pips

Loss

3162.00

3359.00

Exit Price

3310.00

Entry Price

3359.00

Fundamentals

During the Asian and European trading sessions on Friday, gold prices rallied consecutively, supported by the $3,227 level. The intraday market attention is sharply focused on the upcoming U.S. April Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. The downside risks to the NFP data have been exacerbated by the weaker-than-expected ADP employment data released on Wednesday, coupled with the increase in unemployment benefit claims. These factors have collectively intensified the market's risk-aversion sentiment.

This week, the U.S. labor market data have exhibited a pronounced tilt towards downside risks. Initial jobless claims surged to 241,000 last week, driving the four-week moving average to 226,000. Meanwhile, the ADP employment report revealed a significant deceleration in private-sector job growth, with only 62,000 new jobs added, compared to the revised figure of 147,000 in March. Additionally, although the employment sub-index of the ISM Manufacturing PMI edged up slightly from 44.7 to 46.2, it remains firmly within contractionary territory.

Amid rising macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States, the U.S. April NFP report, scheduled for release tonight, will serve as a pivotal indicator of labor market resilience. The market currently anticipates a gain of 130,000 jobs in April, a notable deceleration from the far-better-than-expected increase of 228,000 jobs in March. Moreover, average hourly earnings are projected to rise by 0.3% MoM, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%.

While the recent volatility in reciprocal tariff policies has yet to be fully reflected in the data, other indicators have already signaled an increasing fragility in the labor market. Should today's report significantly underperform expectations, it could reignite market concerns about a potential economic downturn, especially following the unexpected contraction in the Q1 GDP data released earlier this week. For the Federal Reserve, a disappointing employment report would further amplify the pressure to resume accommodative policies as early as June.

Focus Shifts to U.S. April Non-Farm Payrolls Report _1

Technical Analysis

On Thursday, gold prices declined by 1.6%, reaching a two-week low, driven by rising risk appetite amid easing trade tensions and consecutive profit-taking by long positions. This development further eroded gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. However, with the market momentum becoming oversold due to sustained selling pressure and the emergence of new uncertainties, gold prices are now showing signs of a bottoming-out recovery.

From a broader cyclical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching the neutral level of 50, which could represent a critical inflection point. Should momentum rebound at this level, it may signal that the bullish momentum remains intact, potentially fueling a short-term rebound. In the shorter term, price fluctuations remain within the normal range of range-bound trading.

In light of the current market dynamics, traders are advised to adopt a swing trading approach, capitalizing on short-term price movements while remaining vigilant to broader macroeconomic developments.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 3310

Target Price: 3162

Stop Loss: 3359

Valid Until: May 17, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 3243/3227/3201

Resistance: 3268/3283/3307

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Australian Dollar clings to gains despite underwhelming retail sales and renewed global slowdown concerns.

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.64501

Entry Price

0.65400

0.63800

0.65101 +0.00538 +0.83%

21.1

Pips

Profit

0.63800

0.64712

Exit Price

0.64501

Entry Price

0.65400

The Australian Dollar (AUD) managed to maintain a modest rebound against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, even as a weaker-than-expected retail sales figure for March, softening commodity prices, and lingering political uncertainties at home cloud the outlook for the currency. Traders are grappling with a mix of fragile global sentiment, renewed trade optimism, and a murky domestic political picture ahead of the national elections this weekend.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), retail sales rose just 0.3% month-over-month in March, falling short of the 0.4% forecast and down sharply from the revised 0.8% jump in February. While the data underscores ongoing consumer caution amid cost-of-living pressures, it has done little to immediately derail the Aussie, which has been buoyed by technical factors and a mild pullback in the US Dollar ahead of key labor market data.

Despite holding ground in Friday trading, the AUD remains fundamentally vulnerable to fluctuations in commodity prices and those are under pressure. Key Australian exports such as iron ore, copper, and gold have seen declines in recent sessions, as global risk sentiment deteriorates. Concerns over faltering growth in China and soft US manufacturing data have reignited fears of a broader global economic slowdown, which could curtail demand for Australia’s commodity-heavy export basket.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in China reported that its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slipped to 49.0 in April from 50.5 in March, falling back into contraction territory and missing market expectations. The Non-Manufacturing PMI also eased to 50.4, further dampening hopes for a robust recovery in the world’s second-largest economy.

Given Australia’s heavy trade reliance on China, the disappointing data adds another layer of pressure on the Aussie, which already faces headwinds from a cooling domestic economy and political instability.

Australia’s federal election this weekend adds yet another source of potential volatility. While polling suggests a narrow edge for incumbent Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, the possibility of a hung parliament looms large. Should Albanese secure only a minority, the need to form a coalition with the Greens or independents could complicate fiscal planning and raise the risk of policy gridlock or excessive public spending. Markets are particularly wary of fiscal slippage at a time when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains cautious about the inflation outlook.

A delayed or contested result could also weigh on investor sentiment, especially given Australia’s recent history of political turnover and fragile parliamentary majorities.

Recent inflation data from the ABS showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 0.9% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2025, significantly above the 0.2% gain in Q4 2024 and slightly ahead of consensus. On an annualized basis, CPI rose 2.4%, exceeding expectations of 2.2%. While these numbers are unlikely to fundamentally shift the RBA’s dovish stance, they complicate the central bank’s narrative as it balances between supporting growth and anchoring inflation expectations.

Despite these inflation surprises, market participants still anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut in May, amid fears that new US tariffs and slowing global trade could dent Australian export demand.

On the other side of the AUD/USD pair, the US Dollar has been losing momentum after several sessions of gains, weighed down by a softer tone in recent US economic data and growing political uncertainty around trade.

President Donald Trump has been signaling renewed optimism about potential trade deals with key partners, including China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Trump stated during a recent NewsNation Town Hall that a deal with China has a "very good probability" of materializing, provided US conditions are met. He also confirmed progress in trade talks with Ukraine.

Yet, the positive tone has been tempered by structural concerns in the US economy. The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in April still in contraction and Initial Jobless Claims rose unexpectedly to 241,000, raising fresh doubts about the resilience of the labor market. The Employment Index within the ISM report, while improved at 46.5, remains firmly in contraction territory.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent both issued warnings about the risks of Trump's tariff policies, with Bessent emphasizing that the inverted yield curve strengthens the case for Fed rate cuts in the coming months.

In more supportive news for the Australian Dollar, the ABS reported a March trade surplus of AUD 6.9 billion more than double market expectations of AUD 3.13 billion driven by a sharp 7.6% surge in exports and a 2.2% drop in imports. The strong data provides a tailwind for the AUD, reinforcing Australia's favorable trade balance even as commodity prices wobble.

However, the question remains whether this will be enough to shield the currency from mounting global and domestic risks.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, AUD/USD is trading around 0.6440 and shows signs of modest bullish momentum. The pair remains above its 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above 50 typically a positive signal for short-term strength.

Immediate resistance lies at 0.6450, the recent four-month high. A break above that level could open the door to 0.6540, the five-month peak. Support is seen at 0.6340, with a break below likely signaling the start of a bearish leg.

The currency remains range-bound in the near term, with direction likely hinging on upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls data and the outcome of Australia's election. A move outside the 0.6340–0.6440 band could set the tone for the weeks ahead.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY AUDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6450

STOP LOSS: 0.6380

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6540

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Bearish Outlook Amid Supply Surplus and Weak Demand

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

EUR/USD Sustains Below 1.1340: Short-Term Downward Pressure or Consolidation Before Breakout?

Market Overview

Market psychology

Technical analysis

Trading Recommendations

GBP/JPY Drops Below 192: Reversal Signal Or Short-Term Correction?

Market psychology

Technical analysis

Trading Recommendations

Buyers Eye Rebound as Oversold Signals Emerge

Technical Analysis

Upside Continuation in Focus as USDCHF Finds Fresh Support

Technical Analysis

Focus Shifts to U.S. April Non-Farm Payrolls Report

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

AUD Bulls Defend 0.6440 as Range-Bound Pattern Holds Ahead of NFP, CPI Fallout

Risk Disclosure