Bearish Momentum Resumes After Correction Fails at 200 MA

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

This technical alignment, coupled with the rejection from the 200-period MA, suggests that multiple technical factors are in place for a potential resumption of the downtrend.

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.65364

Entry Price

0.64800

0.65700

0.66391 +0.00008 +0.01%

33.6

Pips

Loss

0.64800

0.65701

Exit Price

0.65364

Entry Price

0.65700

Recent data from the U.S. labor market presents a mixed, but generally softening, picture. The ADP Employment Change report last week indicated that private payrolls increased by 42,000 in October, surpassing the 25,000 expectation and reversing September's 29,000 decline. However, a less encouraging trend emerged from the Challenger Job Cuts report, which revealed that U.S. employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, marking the highest monthly total since 2003. Further data showed that the U.S. lost an average of 11,250 private sector jobs in the four weeks ending October 25th, a slight improvement from the 14,250 loss recorded the prior month.

The debate among Federal Reserve officials regarding the appropriate policy stance continues to sharpen. Fed Governor Stephen Miran maintains that monetary policy is too restrictive. Conversely, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic adopted a hawkish position, cautioning that moving policy lower risks feeding the "beast of inflation." Bostic added that he does not foresee a "severe labor market recession." Notably, Bostic announced he will retire from his post in February 2026.

Despite Bostic's hawkish tone, market expectations for easing have increased slightly. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% at the December meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, has risen to 68% from 62.4% observed on Monday.

In Australia, inflation is running stronger than expected. The Australian economy saw inflation grow at a rate of 1.3% in the third quarter of the year, a significant acceleration from the 0.7% growth observed in the second quarter. This hot data strengthens the resolve of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep policy tight.

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser reaffirmed the central bank's need to maintain stable interest rates until officials gain confidence that inflation will sustainably return to the target. Speaking at a UBS conference in Sydney, Hauser stated that achieving the inflation target "will require policy to be restrictive enough to close the output gap." He added that the economy continues to "run above its potential," which effectively limits the room for "near-term rate cuts." Looking ahead, investors will focus on the Australian employment data for October, due on Thursday, which is expected to show the economy added 20K new workers, up from 14.9K in September. Bearish Momentum Resumes After Correction Fails at 200 MA_1

Bearish Momentum Resumes After Correction Fails at 200 MA_1

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD is currently undergoing a bearish rejection from the 200-period Moving Average (MA) on the 4-hour chart, which sits at 0.6538. The price reached a brief local high of 0.6550 before turning lower.

If the price manages to close decisively below this 200-period MA, it could signal the onset of a deeper downward correction. This level is highly significant as it coincides with the 0.50 and 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement levels , a convergence that increases the probability that the most recent upward movement was merely a technical correction and that the primary bearish impulse is ready to resume from this zone.

The RSI is currently at 57, remaining out of overbought territory. However, it displays subtle bearish divergences when compared to previous higher price levels where the RSI reading was much lower than the current one. This technical alignment, coupled with the rejection from the 200-period MA, suggests that multiple technical factors are in place for a potential resumption of the downtrend.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.6536

Target price: 0.6480

Stop loss: 0.6570

Validity: Nov 21, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market experienced a massive wave of liquidations, with over US$397 million in long positions forcibly closed. Ethereum and Bitcoin emerged as the primary victims. This development further dampened Ethereum's rebound momentum amid high market volatility, pushing its price back down to around US$3,531.

SELL ETH-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

3456.38

Entry Price

2609.00

4000.00

3134.65 +107.69 +3.56%

3521.7

Pips

Profit

2609.00

3104.21

Exit Price

3456.38

Entry Price

4000.00

Fundamentals

Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has experienced its largest wave of liquidations in recent weeks. According to data from liquidation tracking platforms, over US$397 million in long positions were forcibly closed, highlighting a significant cooling in market risk appetite.

The decline was primarily concentrated in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), with leveraged positions in these two major assets becoming the primary targets for capital outflows, leading to a significant drop in overall market liquidity.

The prominent crypto whale HyperUnit has fully liquidated its long positions in Ethereum, locking in approximately US$2.8 million in profits. This address gained notoriety for its precise shorting of ETH during the October 10th pullback, which yielded cumulative gains exceeding US$200 million. While this liquidation yielded relatively modest profits, it sends a crucial signal—whales are transitioning from offensive to defensive strategies.

Transaction data also indicates that funds have flowed into multiple centralized exchanges such as Kraken, Binance, and Hyperliquid, suggesting an intention to reduce leverage exposure and temporarily exit risk assets.

The departure of whales and liquidation events have rapidly cooled speculative sentiment in the ETH derivatives market. Arkham data indicates that open interest (OI) in ETH contracts has significantly declined following liquidations, while derivatives trading volume has also temporarily contracted. This signals that the market is undergoing a self-correcting deleveraging process. Such scenarios typically involve increased short-term price volatility, narrower trading ranges, and temporary liquidity declines.

Ethereum's Plunge Triggers US$397 Million in Liquidations as Whale Position-Closing Signals Heighten Market Caution_1

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, after rising above US$3,800 in mid-October, ETH has repeatedly encountered resistance and retreated. It currently hovers near the critical support zone at US$3,500. Should this support fail to hold, the likelihood of further declines toward US$3,420 or even US$3,200 increases.

Conversely, if market liquidation concludes and capital re-enters the market, the short-term rebound target will focus on the range between US$3,650 and US$3,720. Further declines may test the July starting point of US$2,560.

The current market environment is characterized by high volatility and uncertainty. While the unwinding of large positions has alleviated short-term selling pressure, it also indicates that major capital is adopting a wait-and-see approach, with speculative funds exiting the market. In the near term, ETH's price trajectory may remain volatile with a bearish bias. Only after liquidations conclude and position structures are rebuilt is there potential for prices to stabilize and rebound.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 3600

Target Price: 2609

Stop Loss: 4000

Valid Until: November 27, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 3462, 3401, 3357

Resistance: 3598, 3659, 3916

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Silver prices advanced beyond $51.70 on Wednesday, extending their recent rally as growing expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate cut bolstered investor appetite for non-yielding assets.

BUY XAGUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

51.700

Entry Price

54.500

50.000

58.368 +0.051 +0.09%

2.6

Pips

Profit

50.000

51.726

Exit Price

51.700

Entry Price

54.500

Silver (XAG/USD) traded around $51.70 on Wednesday, up about 1% on the day, as the metal extended its winning streak on renewed optimism that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates again in December. Investors’ conviction that the U.S. central bank’s tightening cycle is nearing its end has strengthened markedly this week, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing nearly a 68% probability of a 25-basis-point rate reduction next month, compared with around 62% a day earlier. The market’s shift reflects growing concerns that the U.S. economy is losing momentum faster than expected, compelling policymakers to pivot toward supporting growth.

Recent economic indicators have reinforced this view. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to its lowest level since 2022, signaling that American households are turning more pessimistic about the outlook. Meanwhile, October data showed a slowdown in job creation and a dip in retail spending, both of which point to cooling economic activity. With inflation showing signs of easing, many investors believe the Fed’s next move will likely focus on stabilizing the economy rather than continuing to prioritize price control. This change in sentiment has proven favorable for silver, which tends to benefit when yields fall and the dollar weakens.

The resolution of the partial U.S. government shutdown has also helped improve market sentiment. Earlier this week, the U.S. Senate passed a funding bill, and the House of Representatives is expected to finalize it soon, paving the way for federal agencies to reopen. The move has offered temporary reassurance to investors who feared prolonged fiscal disruption, though analysts caution that the delay in data publication will make it more difficult for the Fed to accurately gauge near-term economic conditions. The reopening of government departments will eventually allow for the resumption of key economic reports, but for now, the absence of fresh data leaves traders relying heavily on Fed communications and market expectations.

The U.S. dollar remains under pressure, with the Dollar Index hovering around 99.60 as investors await a series of speeches from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials. Analysts at OCBC have suggested that the scarcity of new data will keep markets attentive to what Fed officials say, while economists at ING warned that once data releases resume, they could show deeper weakness in employment and output. Such a scenario would likely weigh further on the greenback. A softer dollar typically boosts demand for dollar-denominated commodities like silver, as it makes them more affordable for holders of other currencies. This dynamic has been a significant driver behind silver’s continued strength in recent sessions.

Technical Analysis

The technical picture for silver is equally supportive. The metal recently broke through a critical resistance level at $51.25, marking a clear bullish breakout from a consolidation range that had capped prices for weeks. The move was reinforced by the price holding above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), suggesting that momentum remains firmly on the side of the bulls. The metal has also been trading along a short-term ascending trendline, with momentum indicators showing positive readings even as the relative strength index (RSI) edges toward overbought territory.

Before the breakout, silver had been consolidating between $45.43 on the downside and $50.00 on the upside. The surge above $51.00 has transformed that area into a newly established support zone. The price action suggests that a retest of the breakout region could occur before the next upward leg, potentially offering buyers a new entry opportunity. If silver manages to hold above the $51.00 level, the next major resistance lies near $54.50, representing a possible 7% upside from current levels. The recent bullish momentum, confirmed by multiple rejections of lower levels in previous sessions, highlights the underlying strength of this move.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY SILVER

ENTRY PRICE: 51.70

STOP LOSS: 50.00

TAKE PROFIT: 54.50

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The British Pound weakened sharply on Wednesday as rising UK unemployment and slowing wage growth fueled expectations that the Bank of England could begin cutting interest rates as early as December.

SELL GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.31200

Entry Price

1.29000

1.32200

1.33287 -0.00025 -0.02%

52.3

Pips

Profit

1.29000

1.30677

Exit Price

1.31200

Entry Price

1.32200

The British Pound extended its losing streak on Wednesday, underperforming most of its major peers except the Japanese Yen, as renewed speculation over a December interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) weighed heavily on sentiment.

Market participants are increasingly convinced that the BoE’s tightening cycle has come to an end and that policymakers could soon pivot toward monetary easing. According to Reuters, traders now expect around 20 basis points of rate cuts before the end of the year, a view strengthened by a dismal set of labour market figures released earlier this week.

The UK’s latest employment data for the three months ending September showed a net job loss of 22,000 workers — the first decline in employment since March 2024. The headline ILO Unemployment Rate rose to 5%, marking the highest level since early 2021 and underscoring the growing cracks in the nation’s labour market as higher borrowing costs continue to filter through the economy.

Adding to the dovish narrative, wage pressures — one of the BoE’s biggest concerns in its inflation fight — have started to cool noticeably. Average Earnings excluding bonuses slowed sharply to 4.6% year-on-year, the weakest growth rate in more than three years. The data suggests that the labour market, long considered resilient, is finally succumbing to the cumulative drag of elevated interest rates and weakening demand.

The slowdown in wage growth is also expected to feed into softer consumer inflation expectations, reinforcing the case for the BoE to loosen policy sooner rather than later. A cooling labour market, coupled with subdued consumption and stagnant business activity, gives policymakers a reason to start normalizing policy to support growth — a move that could weigh further on the Pound in the months ahead.

Despite the mounting pressure, not all policymakers share the market’s conviction that rate cuts are imminent. Megan Greene, a member of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), signaled during a UBS conference in London on Tuesday that she favors maintaining the current rate stance. Greene argued that economic conditions could stabilize in the near term and that wage growth might rebound once confidence and hiring activity recover. Her comments, however, did little to shift sentiment as traders focused more on the hard data pointing toward a rapidly cooling economy.

The Pound’s underperformance reflects investors’ growing belief that the BoE will soon be forced to join the global wave of monetary easing seen in other major economies. As the U.S. Federal Reserve signals a potential soft landing and the European Central Bank faces similar calls for stimulus, the UK’s slowing growth trajectory could make the BoE one of the first major central banks to resume rate cuts.

From a broader perspective, the combination of elevated living costs, sluggish productivity, and waning business investment continues to erode the UK’s economic resilience. If unemployment continues to rise and wage growth remains weak, sterling could face additional downside pressure heading into year-end, particularly against the U.S. dollar and the euro.

Technical Analysis

On the technical front, the GBP/USD pair remains under significant bearish pressure following a failed attempt to break above a critical daily resistance zone. The recent rejection at that level has triggered renewed selling momentum, suggesting that the pair’s short-term bias has turned decisively negative.

Intraday price action reveals a clear bearish imbalance, often a precursor to further downside movement. The pair’s inability to sustain gains above the 1.3150 region highlights weakening buying interest and validates the view that bears remain firmly in control.

Momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), are trending lower and have yet to show signs of exhaustion, while the pair continues to trade below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages — classic signals of sustained bearish sentiment.

In the near term, i anticipate a potential decline toward the 1.3064 support level, which coincides with a key Fibonacci retracement area. A decisive break below that region could open the door to a deeper correction toward 1.3000 and potentially even 1.2900 in the coming sessions. On the upside, immediate resistance lies near 1.3175, followed by 1.3220, where renewed selling could emerge if risk sentiment deteriorates further.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GBPUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3120

STOP LOSS: 1.3220

TAKE PROFIT: 1.2900

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Japanese Yen weakened on Wednesday as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks signaled continued government coordination with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and a preference for wage-driven inflation, dampening speculation of near-term rate hikes.

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

154.878

Entry Price

158.000

153.400

155.227 -0.118 -0.08%

31.5

Pips

Profit

153.400

155.193

Exit Price

154.878

Entry Price

158.000

The Japanese Yen (JPY) extended its slide on Wednesday, with the USD/JPY pair trading around 154.85, up roughly 0.50% on the day. The move reflects renewed investor optimism toward the U.S. dollar amid dovish undertones from Japan’s leadership and growing anticipation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will delay further monetary tightening.

Comments from Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi reignited speculation about the country’s fiscal direction and the central bank’s next policy steps. Takaichi emphasized that Japan’s inflation must be driven by wage growth, not by temporary rises in food and energy prices. Her remarks suggested the government’s continued preference for a careful balance between fiscal stimulus and monetary normalization — a stance that aligns with BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s recent caution over tightening too quickly.

Takaichi underscored the importance of close coordination between the government and the BoJ to sustain Japan’s fragile recovery, adding that inflation stability must coincide with higher real incomes. This language echoes the BoJ’s long-held stance that wage-led inflation, rather than cost-push price increases, is the key to achieving its 2% inflation target sustainably.

Market participants interpreted Takaichi’s comments as another sign that the BoJ may hold off on its next rate hike, potentially pushing any move beyond December. Despite signs of internal debate within the BoJ about gradually normalizing monetary policy, policymakers appear hesitant to act amid fragile domestic demand and slowing global growth.

Meanwhile, Tokyo is finalizing a new economic stimulus package, scheduled for release on November 21, aimed at bolstering consumer spending and offsetting the impact of higher living costs. The package is widely expected to reinforce the BoJ’s accommodative stance, as fiscal stimulus often pairs with easy monetary policy to ensure liquidity support.

These dynamics have weighed heavily on the Japanese Yen, which remains one of the weakest major currencies this quarter. The combination of fiscal expansion, low yields, and a renewed global risk-on sentiment has kept the Yen under consistent selling pressure.

Across the Pacific, developments in Washington have also influenced sentiment. The prospect of a deal to reopen the U.S. government, following the longest shutdown in history, has lifted overall market confidence and reduced demand for safe-haven assets such as the Yen. However, analysts caution that Japanese authorities could intervene in the foreign exchange market if the Yen weakens excessively, given previous verbal warnings when the USD/JPY traded near the 155.00 mark.

Adding to the complex backdrop, the latest U.S. labor market data from ADP showed private employment losses averaging 11,250 jobs per week over the past month. This deterioration has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in December, a shift that has capped further U.S. dollar gains. While the short-term rebound in USD/JPY reflects market relief and technical buying, the broader narrative remains one of diverging monetary outlooks between the U.S. and Japan.

With no major U.S. economic data scheduled for release on Wednesday, traders are turning their attention to speeches from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members for guidance on the Fed’s policy trajectory. Market pricing now suggests an increased likelihood of a rate cut by year-end, especially if labor market conditions continue to soften and inflation moderates further in the coming months.

Investors remain cautious, however, as any hawkish pushback from Fed officials could reignite dollar strength and prolong pressure on the Yen. The market remains finely balanced between two opposing forces: BoJ dovishness versus Fed easing expectations.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY has maintained its bullish trajectory. The pair broke through a key resistance level at 154.30, extending its short-term uptrend. Price action remains firmly above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), reinforcing the dominance of buyers in the market.

Momentum indicators have also turned positive after cooling from overbought conditions, suggesting renewed buying appetite. The pair’s movement along the rising trendline indicates the potential for further upside, eyeing the 155.20–155.50 zone as the next resistance area. A sustained move above that region could open the path toward the 158.00 mark, though intervention risks may limit aggressive gains.

On the downside, initial support sits at 154.00, followed by the 153.40 level, which aligns with the short-term ascending channel. A decisive break below these levels could trigger profit-taking and signal the start of a consolidation phase.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 154.80

STOP LOSS: 153.40

TAKE PROFIT: 158.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Summary:

Supported by yen depreciation and steady orders, Japan's manufacturing confidence hit a four-year high in November. The Japanese finance minister's verbal intervention served only as a “speed bump.”

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

203.029

Entry Price

207.000

199.750

206.898 -0.202 -0.10%

291.8

Pips

Profit

199.750

205.947

Exit Price

203.029

Entry Price

207.000

Fundamentals

According to the Reuters Tankan survey, Japan's manufacturing confidence rose to its highest level in nearly four years in November, buoyed by yen depreciation and robust orders, with electronics and automotive sectors performing strongly. The manufacturing confidence index climbed to 17 from 8 in October, marking its highest reading since January 2022. The electronics industry sub-index surged to 25, its highest level since December 2021.

A manager at an electronics company stated, “The weak yen is boosting exports.” During the survey period from October 28 to November 7, the JPYUSD fell more than 5%. Another manager added, “The semiconductor market, particularly the memory sector, is performing well.” The automotive and transportation machinery sector also showed a significant increase, with its confidence index rising from 9 to 27. Nevertheless, the overall manufacturing index is expected to decline to 15 in February, as some managers expressed concerns over sluggish automobile production and sales.

The yen's weakness persisted as Japanese officials' remarks reinforced the view that supporting economic growth through lower interest rates outweighs concerns about further yen depreciation.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated on Wednesday that authorities have recently observed one-sided and rapid fluctuations in exchange rates and are closely monitoring currency movements with a sense of urgency. While acknowledging that yen weakness has contributed to cost inflation to some extent, she did not deny that the currency's depreciation carries more disadvantages than advantages.

Market Watch: Satsuki Katayama's remarks can be viewed as verbal intervention aimed at attempting to strengthen the yen. The GBPJPY exchange rate retreated from its early session high near 203.57 to around 202.94, yet it continues to exhibit supportive dynamics. As is often the case, such verbal interventions tend to function more as speed bumps than substantive barriers. Further appreciation in this asset is anticipated.

Yen's Depreciation Boosts Exports, but Authorities' Verbal Intervention Is Unlikely to Reverse the Trend_1

Technical Analysis

The outlook for GBPJPY remains unchanged, with intraday movements still neutral. On the upside, a break above the 204.22 resistance level would confirm the completion of the pullback from 205.30, forming a three-wave correction at 199.04. A break above 205.30 could extend the larger uptrend from 184.53.

On the downside, a break below the minor support level at 201.36 would signal a shift to a downward correction, targeting 199.04 and below to extend the pullback.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 203.00

Target Price: 207.01

Stop Loss: 199.75

Valid Until: November 27, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 202.33, 201.76, 200.65

Resistance: 203.57, 204.22, 205.30

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Economic

Summary:

AUD/USD trades around 0.652 after the RBA kept the cash rate at 3.60% on 4 November and signalled a data-dependent stance, while the U.S. Dollar Index stabilizes near 99.6 with equity volatility subdued...

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.65300

Entry Price

0.64750

0.65700

0.66391 +0.00008 +0.01%

10.5

Pips

Loss

0.64750

0.65405

Exit Price

0.65300

Entry Price

0.65700

Overview

The RBA’s November hold at 3.60% and its emphasis on vigilance toward sticky services inflation reduce the odds of imminent easing and leave the Aussie trading more on global dollar swings than fresh domestic catalysts this week. Spot is marked around 0.652 with today’s historical strip showing a 0.6517–0.6539 range, while DXY sits near 99.55 after failing to build on last week’s brief push above 100.

In the absence of new Australian data today, the causal driver for AUD/USD is the dollar’s ability to defend the 99.5–100 shelf, which has contained risk sentiment without forcing disorderly moves.

Market sentiment

Conditions are orderly rather than euphoric, with VIX around the high-teens, a regime that typically rewards selling rallies into well-defined resistance when the dollar is steady.

Local coverage after the RBA meeting underscored a cautious, data-dependent stance following Q3 inflation surprises, a narrative that dampens aggressive AUD outperformance and encourages mean-reversion flows against nearby tops when U.S. dollar dips stall.

Technical analysis

AUD/USD softens as DXY holds near 99.6 and RBA guidance stays cautious_1

Price is rotating just under the Bollinger mid-line after failing near the upper band in the 0.6535–0.6540 pocket, preserving a sequence of lower intraday highs that argues for a sell-the-rally stance while the 20-period mean caps bounces.

On Ichimoku, spot is testing or sitting beneath the Kumo with Tenkan ≤ Kijun; repeated rejections at the cloud top indicate overhead supply into the mid-0.6530s. Stochastic has rolled down from mid-range; a fresh %K < %D cross from the 50 area on shallow upticks usually precedes another lower-band probe toward the high-0.64s if DXY holds firm. These levels align with today’s 0.6517–0.6539 tape and the broader dollar backdrop.