Awaiting Pullback for Long Positions, Potential to Reach New All-Time High

Alan

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

The preliminary outcomes of the U.S.-China trade deals have bolstered risk assets, including Bitcoin.

BUY BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

102590.0

Entry Price

113000.0

96500.0

91429.9 +1875.1 +2.09%

240.5

Pips

Profit

96500.0

102830.5

Exit Price

102590.0

Entry Price

113000.0

Fundamentals

The current bullish thesis for Bitcoin is driven by two factors: the policy dividends following the U.S.-China trade deals and expectations of improved U.S. dollar liquidity. The newly enacted agreement between the two nations has reduced peak tariffs from 125% to normal levels, alleviating global supply chain pressures and mitigating U.S. import-driven inflation risks. This development indirectly supports the possibility of a Fed rate cut this year. Although the market's expectation for a September rate cut has declined to 51.8%, the core CPI has cooled for three consecutive months (April YoY: 2.3%), leaving room for a monetary policy pivot. If tonight's U.S. retail sales data (expected MoM: 0.8%) falls short of expectations, it could further reinforce easing expectations and drive a revaluation of risk assets.

Meanwhile, institutional capital flows indicate sustained long-term bullish sentiment. Despite recent single-day outflows from Bitcoin ETFs (e.g., Fidelity's FBTC saw an outflow of $96 million), cumulative inflows stay at $5 billion, with giants like BlackRock continuing to expand their holdings.

Market sentiment, as measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, stands at 70 (indicating "greed"), slightly down from the previous 73 but still elevated. This suggests persistent optimism among market participants but also hints at potential overheating risks.

Technical Analysis

Awaiting Pullback for Long Positions, Potential to Reach New All-Time High _1

As reflected by the daily chart, Bitcoin has rebounded strongly after a deep correction, bottoming at 77,000 and resuming its upward trajectory. It recently tested the 61.8% Fibonacci extension (105,894) but faced resistance, showing signs of a potential pullback.

Regarding key indicators, the RSI is in neutral-to-strong territory but has retreated slightly, signaling weakened short-term upward momentum. Besides, the MACD remains bullish, though the histogram height has declined. In general, these indicators suggest an increased likelihood of a short-term pullback.

Bitcoin may retreat to the 100,000 support level. However, given its recent upward trend along the 20-day moving average (MA20), a break below 100,000 could see a deeper correction toward 98,000.

Buying after a retracement is recommended.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 101000

Target price: 113000

Stop loss: 96500

Valid Until: May 29, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 100000/97896

Resistance: 105894/109800

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Eva Chen

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices experienced a further decline on Thursday after breaching a pivotal support level. This downward trajectory was catalyzed by the escalating optimism regarding the China-U.S. trade agreement, which has alleviated market concerns over a more profound economic crisis and counterbalanced other factors that would typically bolster safe-haven demand.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3183.05

Entry Price

2998.00

3248.00

4215.83 +17.92 +0.43%

649.5

Pips

Loss

2998.00

3248.15

Exit Price

3183.05

Entry Price

3248.00

Fundamentals

Gold prices plummeted to $3120 during the Asian session on Thursday, marking the lowest level since April 10. Since peaking in May, gold has witnessed a depreciation exceeding 8%.

The abatement of geopolitical tensions is poised to exacerbate bearish sentiment within the gold market. Concurrently, the mutual revocation of most equivalent tariffs by China and the U.S., coupled with the ongoing formulation of potential agreement details with India, Japan, and South Korea, has diminished the allure of gold as a safe-haven asset.

Moreover, with the easing of recessionary concerns in the U.S. economy, investors have been progressively paring back their expectations for a more aggressive easing stance from the Federal Reserve. This shift has been instrumental in driving up U.S. Treasury yields, which, in turn, should provide tailwinds for the U.S. dollar and place a lid on the upside potential for non-yielding gold prices.

In the run-up to the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) release later today, traders are likely to adopt a more cautious stance and refrain from making substantial bets. Additionally, remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Powell at the opening of the second Thomas Laubach Research Conference could introduce a meaningful catalyst for gold prices.

Descent Nears the Psychological Threshold of 3000 _1

Technical Analysis

The onset of a new wave of risk appetite early Thursday propelled gold prices below the $3150 mark, signaling that the significant correction from the $3500 peak would persist in generating bearish momentum.

Despite the Relative Strength Index (RSI) venturing into negative territory, the overarching downward trending structure remains intact. Any attempts at a rebound that surpass the near-term highs would be construed as a "bull trap."

Based on the equidistant pattern analysis, the current gold price decline is poised to test the psychological threshold of $3000, followed by a potential stabilization and subsequent rebound.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 3186

Target Price: 2998

Stop Loss: 3248

Valid Until: May 30, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 3120/3100/3084

Resistance: 3193/3207/3231

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Silver's rally loses steam as the US and China ease tariffs, undermining safe-haven appeal. Diminished Fed rate cut expectations and a shift in geopolitical risk sentiment weigh on XAG/USD, which hovers around $32.

SELL XAGUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

32.000

Entry Price

30.500

33.000

58.350 +0.033 +0.06%

100.0

Pips

Loss

30.500

33.003

Exit Price

32.000

Entry Price

33.000

Silver (XAG/USD) came under renewed pressure in early Asian trading on Thursday, shedding its recent bullish momentum and trading near the $32.00 per troy ounce mark. The pullback comes as appetite for defensive assets fades amid a notable easing in global trade tensions and a recalibration of monetary policy expectations from the Federal Reserve.

In a move that has reverberated across global markets, both Washington and Beijing have taken concrete steps toward de-escalating long-standing tariff hostilities. According to diplomatic and trade officials familiar with the matter, the United States has agreed to cut tariffs on a range of Chinese goods—from a punitive 145% down to 30%. In a reciprocal gesture, China will slash tariffs on U.S. imports from 125% to just 10%.

The dramatic reduction in cross-border trade barriers is viewed as a material shift in bilateral relations and signals renewed diplomatic engagement between the world's two largest economies. President Donald Trump, speaking in a televised Fox News interview, hailed the progress as "remarkable" and suggested that the White House is actively exploring a potential direct summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping to finalize a broader trade accord.

Michael Hart, President of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, echoed this optimism, stating that "a rollback in tariffs could reinvigorate supply chains, reduce input costs, and encourage foreign investment on both sides." Risk-sensitive markets responded in kind, with equity futures climbing and Treasury yields nudging higher, further undercutting demand for non-yielding assets like silver.

Compounding the downward pressure on silver is a discernible shift in expectations for U.S. monetary policy. Investors had previously priced in multiple interest rate cuts in 2025, anticipating a more accommodative Fed amid tepid inflation data. However, the improving global risk backdrop has prompted markets to walk back some of these dovish bets.

Still, softer-than-expected consumer inflation data for April injected a dose of ambiguity into the policy outlook. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 2.3%—below March’s 2.4% and slightly softer than economists’ consensus. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.8%, matching expectations. On a monthly basis, both measures posted a 0.2% uptick.

While the inflation data briefly softened the U.S. Dollar and lent marginal support to precious metals, the underlying narrative remains one of waning inflation pressures in the short term—especially before the new round of tariffs takes effect in May.

Looking ahead, investor focus is shifting to Friday’s release of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey—two high-frequency indicators that could shape market expectations around the Fed’s June meeting.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, silver has broken below a critical intraday support level near $31.90, halting its recent rally. This move triggered a corrective bounce as the metal sought to unload its oversold conditions on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which had slipped into extreme territory.

Despite some early signs of a rebound, the broader technical setup remains fragile. XAG/USD continues to trade beneath the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), suggesting persistent bearish pressure on the short-term charts. Moreover, chart analysts are closely monitoring the development of a descending triangle pattern—a formation typically associated with downside breakouts. A decisive break below $31.90 would confirm the bearish continuation and potentially expose silver to further declines toward the $30.50 region.

However, should silver manage to stabilize above the current support zone and reclaim EMA50 territory, it could challenge immediate resistance near $32.60, followed by the psychological $33.00 threshold.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL SILVER

ENTRY PRICE: 32.00

STOP LOSS: 33.00

TAKE PROFIT: 30.50

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

EUR/JPY continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel. Recently, the pair approached the upper boundary of the channel but faced downward pressure from that resistance area.

BUY EURJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

162.699

Entry Price

165.300

161.440

181.037 +0.164 +0.09%

11.3

Pips

Profit

161.440

162.812

Exit Price

162.699

Entry Price

165.300

A number of European Central Bank (ECB) officials stated on Tuesday that the institution’s ongoing strategic review is expected to largely validate its previous monetary policy decisions, particularly its implementation of quantitative easing (QE), despite lingering criticism from some members of the policymaking community. They reiterated that the ECB will remain fully committed to taking “decisive action” in environments characterized by low inflation and subdued interest rates, even after the review process concludes.

Gabriel Makhlouf, a member of the ECB Governing Council and Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, expressed concerns that rising economic uncertainty is putting downward pressure on investment across the eurozone. He pointed out that the latest batch of soft economic data reflects a marked decline in both business and consumer sentiment, underlining the fragile state of the region’s economic recovery.

Amid these concerns, however, there were some signs of optimism. Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index saw a dramatic rebound, jumping to 25.2 in May from -14 in April—far surpassing the market’s expectation of 11.9. Similarly, the broader Eurozone ZEW Index climbed to 11.6 from a previous -18.5 reading, signaling improved outlooks from financial market experts even in the face of ongoing macroeconomic challenges.

In other economic updates, Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) held steady at 2.2% year-over-year in April. Although the figure was largely in line with forecasts, it served to reinforce the broader disinflationary trend that continues to weigh on the euro area. The data further fueled market expectations that the ECB may opt for a rate cut as soon as June. Reinforcing this sentiment, ECB officials, including Isabel Schnabel, emphasized the importance of maintaining the current accommodative stance in light of persistent global uncertainties. While these developments are not strong enough to spark a major rally, the combination of soft inflation data and dovish rhetoric provided modest support to the euro after its recent downward stretch.

Meanwhile, across the globe, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida reaffirmed on Tuesday that the central bank remains open to further policy tightening, even amid ongoing global uncertainties such as U.S. trade policy shifts. Addressing lawmakers, Uchida acknowledged that Japan’s core inflation and long-term inflation expectations may stagnate temporarily, but he highlighted continued upward pressure from an “exceptionally tight” labor market. He emphasized that rising wages and shipping costs are likely to be passed on to consumers, reinforcing the potential for a sustained inflationary trend.

Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) for April also supported this narrative, coming in as expected with a 4.0% year-over-year increase. The solid inflation data, combined with Uchida’s hawkish tone, strengthened market expectations that the BoJ could proceed with another interest rate hike in the near term. Price Correction May Offer Bullish Reentry Opportunity in EURJPY_1

Price Correction May Offer Bullish Reentry Opportunity in EURJPY_1

Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel. Recently, the pair approached the upper boundary of the channel but faced downward pressure from that resistance area. Price action has since shifted lower, and attention now turns to the lower end of the channel, where the 100- and 200-period moving averages are located at 163.03 and 162.33, respectively. These levels have historically provided strong support, fueling upward moves in previous sessions. A return to this zone may present a new bullish opportunity if the trend structure holds.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 48 and is declining rapidly. This could signal that bearish momentum may begin to fade as the indicator approaches oversold territory. If the price tests and holds above the 162.62 level—a key support near the ascending trendline—it may trigger a fresh bullish leg within the broader uptrend. On the other hand, a firm break below this level and the lower channel boundary could open the door for a deeper correction, potentially accelerating downside pressure.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 162.70

Target price: 165.30

Stop loss: 161.44

Validity: May 23, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Forex

Summary:

This rejection could mark the beginning of a new bearish phase, with the next key support zone seen near the 1.5520 level.

SELL EURCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.56071

Entry Price

1.55210

1.56800

1.61183 +0.00320 +0.20%

72.9

Pips

Loss

1.55210

1.56800

Exit Price

1.56071

Entry Price

1.56800

Several officials from the European Central Bank (ECB) remarked on Tuesday that the institution’s strategic review will broadly endorse its previous policy decisions—most notably its quantitative easing (QE) programs—despite continued pushback from some policymakers. They also underlined that, following the review, the ECB will maintain its readiness to take "decisive action" during times of persistently low inflation and interest rates.

Gabriel Makhlouf, a member of the ECB Governing Council and Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, warned that rising levels of uncertainty are dampening investment across the eurozone. He noted that recent soft economic indicators suggest a notable decline in both business confidence and consumer sentiment, raising concerns about the fragility of the region’s economic recovery.

Nonetheless, there were encouraging signs from Germany, where the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index surged to 25.2 in May from -14 in April—easily beating market expectations of 11.9. Similarly, the Eurozone ZEW Index rose sharply to 11.6 from -18.5, reflecting renewed optimism among market participants despite ongoing economic headwinds.

In terms of trade relations, both the European Union and Canada stand out as the only major economies that have not made notable progress in trade negotiations with the United States since President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs. Anticipating a lack of resolution, the EU has prepared countermeasures in the event that talks break down. On Thursday, the European Commission published a public consultation paper outlining potential tariffs on up to €95 billion worth of U.S. imports—measures that could further inflame trade tensions between the two sides.

In other developments, Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) remained steady at 2.2% year-over-year in April. While the data came in broadly in line with expectations, it reinforced the broader disinflationary trend across the eurozone and supported growing speculation that the ECB may move toward a rate cut as early as June. Comments from ECB officials, including Isabel Schnabel, stressed the importance of maintaining the current policy stance given ongoing global uncertainties. Although not a catalyst for a strong rally, the combination of subdued inflation and a dovish tone from policymakers helped the euro stage a modest recovery after recent losses.

Meanwhile, Friday’s disappointing Canadian employment report—highlighting slow job creation and a rising unemployment rate—has weakened expectations of further rate hikes from the Bank of Canada (BoC). This has contributed to a softer tone in the Canadian dollar.

Crude oil prices have also played a role in adding pressure to the commodity-linked Canadian dollar. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has stalled after a four-day rally, now trading near $63.00 per barrel at the time of writing, further limiting support for the CAD. Overbought Conditions Heighten Bearish Pressure on EURCAD_1

Overbought Conditions Heighten Bearish Pressure on EURCAD_1

Technical Analysis

EUR/CAD has rallied strongly in recent sessions, filling the price gap left by the sharp downward opening on May 9. Although the pair made a previous attempt to close this gap, it fell short; this time, however, the gap has been fully filled, and price action has since turned lower. This rejection could mark the beginning of a new bearish phase, with the next key support zone seen near the 1.5520 level.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently hit 74, placing the pair deep into overbought territory and suggesting the possibility of increased downward pressure in the short term. Additionally, the 100- and 200-period moving averages are situated at 1.5598 and 1.5621 respectively. A strong daily close below both moving averages could reinforce bearish momentum and accelerate the decline.

Conversely, if the price breaks above the 1.5670 level with conviction, it could invalidate the current bearish setup and open the door for a continuation of the upward move. For now, however, the overbought RSI and recent rejection at gap resistance favor a downside bias.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.5611

Target price: 1.5521

Stop loss: 1.5680

Validity: May 23, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

GBP/JPY pulls back from a four-month high as the Japanese Yen gains strength on hawkish BoJ commentary. Despite UK economic growth optimism, the cross faces near-term headwinds.

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

194.500

Entry Price

199.000

191.000

206.965 -0.135 -0.07%

45.2

Pips

Profit

191.000

194.952

Exit Price

194.500

Entry Price

199.000

The GBP/JPY currency pair retreated sharply on Wednesday during the European session, falling from a four-month peak of 196.40 to around 194.45, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) reclaimed its footing on the back of hawkish remarks from a key Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymaker. The pullback comes despite expectations that the UK economy grew strongly in the first quarter of 2025, with markets bracing for the upcoming flash GDP data set to be released Thursday.

The volatility in GBP/JPY underscores the ongoing tug-of-war between diverging central bank outlooks and shifting macroeconomic narratives in both Japan and the United Kingdom. The retreat in the pair was sparked after BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said that interest rate hikes remain on the table, even as Japan continues to grapple with tepid inflationary momentum. According to Uchida, underlying inflation and long-term price expectations may remain subdued temporarily, but robust wage growth—driven by Japan’s ultra-tight labor market—should support the central bank’s goal of achieving sustainable inflation near its 2% target.

Speaking at an event covered by Reuters, Uchida reiterated the BoJ’s commitment to a cautious but firm tightening trajectory, which appears increasingly credible given that the Yen has struggled for months under the weight of ultra-loose monetary policy and global carry trade flows. His comments bolstered the Japanese currency, causing a broad-based bid in the Yen and exerting downward pressure on GBP/JPY.

Meanwhile, the British Pound (GBP) traded more cautiously, with investors awaiting key economic data from the United Kingdom. The preliminary GDP estimate for the January–March quarter is expected to show a 0.6% expansion—an impressive rebound from the sluggish 0.1% growth in Q4 2024. Such a figure would reinforce the view that the UK economy is stabilizing after a year marked by inflation volatility, soft demand, and post-Brexit trade adjustments.

However, despite signs of economic resilience, the Bank of England (BoE) appears to be nearing a dovish pivot. Labor market conditions have softened, with the Office for National Statistics reporting that the ILO unemployment rate rose modestly to 4.5%, while job additions slowed dramatically to just 112,000 in the most recent period—down from 206,000 previously. The cooling employment data supports the narrative that the BoE may proceed with gradual rate cuts in the coming months, especially as inflation pressures ease and household consumption remains fragile.

This growing divergence in central bank outlooks—BoJ tilting hawkish and BoE edging dovish—is likely to remain a defining theme for GBP/JPY dynamics in the near term.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, GBP/JPY’s retracement from 196.40 to 194.45 appears corrective rather than a trend reversal. Prior to the dip, the pair had broken through the 194.60 resistance level, initiating a strong bullish push toward the next key target at 196.60. The correction may find solid support around the 194.60 zone, which could now serve as a fresh base for a renewed upward leg.

As long as GBP/JPY maintains support above the 194.60–194.80 region, bullish momentum remains intact, with scope to retest 196.40 and potentially advance toward 197.35 and even 199.00 in the short-to-medium term. Momentum indicators, including RSI and MACD, continue to reflect a bullish bias, although short-term consolidation cannot be ruled out given the latest wave of Yen strength.

Today’s expected trading range is between 194.80 and 197.00, with a trend forecast that remains bullish unless a decisive break below 194.40 invalidates the current structure.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GBPJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 194.50

STOP LOSS: 191.00

TAKE PROFIT: 199.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Summary:

The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany surged due to domestic political stability and advancements in trade, which should benefit the Euro.

BUY EURNZD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.88982

Entry Price

1.92800

1.86800

2.01594 +0.00043 +0.02%

129.8

Pips

Profit

1.86800

1.90280

Exit Price

1.88982

Entry Price

1.92800

Fundamentals

Data released on Wednesday revealed a significant improvement in investor sentiment in Germany and the Eurozone for May. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index surged to 25.2 from -14.0, surpassing the anticipated 9.8. Concurrently, Eurozone investor sentiment improved, rising to 11.6 from -18.5, also exceeding expectations.

However, assessments of the current economic situation remain notably negative. The Eurozone's Current Situation Index saw a slight uptick but remains at -42.2. This divergence suggests that while expectations for the coming months are improving, the overall economic conditions in the Eurozone are still fragile.

The EURNZD continues to be influenced by the combination of Eurozone economic growth and solid New Zealand inflation. Technically, the EURUSD's recent sharp decline from 15-year highs suggests bearish pressure.

Our near-term target for this pair is 1.8770, followed by a rebound at the bottom, as we anticipate renewed bullish interest following upcoming economic data releases. The euro is expected to benefit from the ECB's continued rate cuts. Furthermore, in an environment of improved risk sentiment, the market may favor higher-beta currencies.

The May ZEW survey for Germany showed a rebound, indicating increased optimism for economic recovery in the Eurozone, which is expected to outperform New Zealand, although the current situation index did not reflect any recovery.

We anticipate a retest of the bottom and subsequent rebound for the EURNZD in the coming days.

Currently Positioned Favorably Prior to an Upward Trend_1

Technical Analysis

The EURNZD has been range-bound between 1.8800 and 1.9250 recently, indicating significant short-term divergence. In the 1D timeframe, it shows a rebound from the 1.8810 support level, yet the 1.9200 resistance remains a strong barrier. Key SMAs and momentum indicators are weakening, and the breach of multiple support levels warrants attention to critical pivot points.

Technically, the EURNZD shows bearish tendencies, although the market is approaching an optimal entry point for a potential rally.

Overall, the technical outlook is neutral to slightly bearish. Investors should consider initiating long positions near key support levels while remaining vigilant for potential reversals at resistance levels.