Australian Dollar Surges to Eight-Month High on Strong PMI Data, Market Optimism

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Australian Dollar climbed for a fifth straight session on Thursday, reaching an eight-month high above 0.6600 against the U.S. Dollar, buoyed by robust PMI figures and improved global sentiment.

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.66100

Entry Price

0.67000

0.65600

0.66520 -0.00118 -0.18%

50.0

Pips

Loss

0.65600

0.65597

Exit Price

0.66100

Entry Price

0.67000

The Australian Dollar extended its winning streak against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday, climbing above the psychologically significant 0.6600 mark to register its highest level since October last year. The move reflects a confluence of upbeat domestic economic data, cautious optimism in global markets, and a technically bullish backdrop that has drawn further momentum traders into the AUD/USD rally.

At the heart of the Aussie’s strength is the latest preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from Judo Bank and S&P Global, which signaled a notable acceleration in Australia’s economic activity. The July Composite PMI jumped to 53.6 from 51.6 previously — marking the highest reading since April 2022 and the tenth consecutive month of expansion. It is a clear sign that despite lingering global uncertainties, Australia’s private sector is gaining traction.

Breaking down the data, Australia’s services sector — the largest component of GDP — led the charge. The Services PMI surged to 53.8 in July from 51.8 in June, reaching its fastest pace of growth in 16 months. This suggests that consumer demand and business confidence remain resilient even as inflationary pressures linger. The manufacturing sector also contributed positively, with its PMI rising to 51.6 from 50.6, moving further into expansionary territory. Importantly, new orders for manufactured goods recorded the strongest growth in over three years, underlining renewed strength in both domestic and external demand.

This pickup in economic momentum adds another layer of complexity to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy outlook. Speaking at the Anika Foundation in Sydney, RBA Governor Michele Bullock struck a cautious tone. She emphasized the central bank’s commitment to ensuring that inflation remains low and stable, particularly amid what she described as “ongoing uncertainty and unpredictability” in the global economy. Bullock’s comments suggest that while the RBA remains data-dependent, strong PMI figures could shift market expectations toward a more hawkish bias — or at the very least, delay rate cuts that markets had begun to price in earlier this year.

Beyond the domestic front, the Australian Dollar also found tailwinds from a marginal improvement in global trade sentiment. According to the Financial Times, the United States and the European Union are reportedly nearing a new trade agreement that would impose a 15% tariff on EU goods imported into the U.S. While such a development could initially appear protectionist, markets seem to be interpreting it as a sign of de-escalation and compromise in broader transatlantic trade relations, thereby improving global risk appetite — a crucial factor for the risk-sensitive Aussie.

In the broader context, the Australian Dollar’s climb has also been facilitated by signs of consolidation in the U.S. Dollar, which has struggled to find consistent direction amid ongoing political noise and uncertain Federal Reserve guidance. With traders increasingly skeptical of further Fed tightening and economic data showing mixed signals in the U.S., high-beta currencies like the AUD are benefiting from renewed carry trade flows and optimism over global growth stabilization.

Technical Analysis

On the technical front, AUD/USD has made a decisive breakout above a key resistance zone at 0.6590, confirming its bullish trajectory. The pair continues to trade above its 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), a signal that momentum remains to the upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), despite entering overbought territory, still shows positive divergence — suggesting that the rally may have room to extend in the near term. We are now watching the 0.6650–0.6700 zone as the next potential resistance area, with a sustained break above this region likely to invite further bullish momentum.

Moreover, the broader technical structure shows that AUD/USD remains in a well-defined upward channel on the daily chart, supported by a series of higher lows and a short-term rising trendline. Unless the pair decisively breaks back below 0.6550, the bullish trend is expected to remain intact, supported by both fundamental and technical narratives.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY AUDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6610

STOP LOSS: 0.6560

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6700

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Summary:

Euro-zone July PMIs staged a broad-based rebound, with the composite gauge printing an 11-month high and signalling a firming of growth momentum across the currency bloc. In contrast, New Zealand’s Q2 CPI came in softer than expected, prompting the RBNZ to flag that escalating global tariffs and heightened macro uncertainty could exert additional disinflationary pressure over the medium term while compounding downside risks to the nascent recovery.

BUY EURNZD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.94323

Entry Price

1.96060

1.93250

2.02197 +0.00122 +0.06%

86.1

Pips

Profit

1.93250

1.95184

Exit Price

1.94323

Entry Price

1.96060

Fundamentals

Flash estimates show euro-area private-sector output accelerating for a second consecutive month. The composite PMI rose to 51.0 from 50.6, its highest level since August 2024. Manufacturing nudged up to 49.8—also a 36-month peak—while remaining fractionally below the 50 expansion threshold. Services advanced to 51.2, a six-month top, suggesting that the recovery is broadening out from industry into consumer-facing segments.

For the ECB, the data offer modest breathing room. Services inflation—the key metric for Governing Council hawks—continued to moderate in July, offsetting a tentative stabilisation in goods prices. A firmer euro and the persistent threat of U.S. tariff escalation are expected to exert additional disinflationary pressure in H2, lowering the bar for another rate cut in September.

NEW ZEALAND: Q2 CPI rose 0.5 % QoQ, undershooting the 0.6% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey, while the annual rate ticked up to 2.7 %—also shy of the 2.8 % forecast—yet remains comfortably inside the RBNZ’s 1–3 % target band.

RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway said in a speech that escalating global tariffs and “geo-economic uncertainty” could “weigh on inflation over the medium term” and delay a durable recovery until mid-2026. While some economies face imported-cost inflation, New Zealand’s open-economy structure makes it more vulnerable to disinflation via weaker global demand and lower import prices.

Against this backdrop, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand reiterated its commitment to an accommodative stance and signalled that, should inflation continue to moderate in line with its projections, further easing of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) remains firmly on the table.

Soft NZ Inflation Keeps RBNZ in Dovish Lane_1

Technical Analysis

EURNZD snapped a three-day slide on Wednesday and is holding the lower bound of the ascending channel that has framed price action since mid-June. Momentum oscillators are unwinding from deeply oversold levels, raising the probability of a technical bounce.

Since rebounding off the 1.8820 base in mid-June, EURNZD has traced out a textbook ascending structure of consecutively higher highs and higher lows, underscoring that bulls retain structural control.

Price is once again finding bids at channel support; provided it holds the current zone without carving out a lower low, scope opens for a measured extension toward initial resistance at 1.9640, with the psychological 1.9700 magnet coming into play thereafter.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.9409

Target Price: 1.9606

Stop Loss: 1.9325

Valid Until: August 8, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 1.9409/1.9396/1.9357

Resistance: 1.9494/1.9552/1.9587

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Summary:

GBPUSD experienced a short-term decline on Thursday, relinquishing some of its gains from earlier in the week. Softening data from both the UK manufacturing and composite PMI indices have sparked investor concerns over the economic growth outlook, intensifying market expectations that the Bank of England may cut interest rates sooner than anticipated, thereby exerting downward pressure on the pound.

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.35408

Entry Price

1.38630

1.34150

1.33707 -0.00148 -0.11%

125.8

Pips

Loss

1.34150

Exit Price

1.35408

Entry Price

1.38630

Fundamentals

The latest survey from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) revealed that, despite signs of stabilization in the manufacturing sector following a period of weakness, the overall outlook remains fragile. Many businesses continue to cut investments and reduce their workforce.

CBI Chief Economist Ben Jones remarked, “The manufacturing environment remains highly challenging, with companies generally reporting weak and unpredictable demand. High input costs, labor shortages, and global supply chain disruptions continue to squeeze profit margins and constrain production capacity.”

Data indicated that the manufacturing order balance improved slightly from -33 in June to -30 in July, returning to its May level. Meanwhile, the three-month ahead industrial price expectation balance rose from 19 to 21, signaling that inflationary pressures are still building up.

Moreover, the July PMI data released by IHS Markit showed that the UK composite PMI fell from 52.0 to 51.0, the manufacturing PMI rose from 47.7 to 48.2, while the services PMI declined significantly to 51.2. The overall figures reflect a slowdown in UK economic growth.

Market Observations：The current level of output in the UK manufacturing sector supports only a 0.1% quarterly GDP growth rate, with risks skewed to the downside. Additionally, job cuts across multiple industries have further exacerbated market concerns over the demand outlook.

Amid stagnating economic growth and a slowing labor market, the pressure on the Bank of England to cut interest rates again in August is rising. Although recent inflation data has shown an unexpected uptick, the central bank may lean towards a more accommodative stance to avoid pushing the economy into a deeper recession, given the near-stagnation of economic activity.

CBI and PMI Surveys Signal UK Economic Deceleration; Sterling Outlook Under Pressure?_1

Technical Analysis

On Thursday, the GBPUSD pair relinquished some of its earlier gains, but the overall bullish structure remains robust. On the daily chart, the pound sterling found crucial support around the 1.3360 level, suggesting that the current pullback could be a phase of consolidation within the broader upward trend.

Previously, GBPUSD had broken through the key support-turned-resistance at 1.3561, indicating that the correction from 1.3787 had likely concluded near the 1.3363 level. If the exchange rate subsequently resumes its upward trajectory and breaches the high at 1.3787, it is expected to reignite the rally within the Fibonacci range extending from 1.2099 to 1.4004. As long as the support at 1.3363 is not decisively breached, the overall risk bias remains skewed to the upside.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.3516

Target Price: 1.3863

Stop Loss: 1.3415

Valid Until: August 8, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 1.3516/1.3486/1.3460

Resistance: 1.3577/1.3599/1.3622

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Economic

Forex

Summary:

The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to announce its interest rate decision at 15:15 (GMT+3) today and hold a press conference at 15:45 (GMT+3). After seven consecutive rate cuts, the main refinancing rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.15%. The uncertainties surrounding the ECB's interest rate decision and the trade relations between the U.S. and the European Union have heightened investors' concerns. As a result, the euro has witnessed a sharp decline.

BUY EURUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

1.17000

Entry Price

1.17500

1.16600

1.17394 +0.00011 +0.01%

Pips

EXPIRED

1.16600

1.17306

Exit Price

1.17000

Entry Price

1.17500

Fundamentals

The strength of the US dollar has been a prominent feature in the recent currency landscape, with the dollar showing resilience against major currencies. This upward trajectory is not a random fluctuation but the result of a combination of underlying economic and geopolitical factors.

Firstly, the Fed's aggressive monetary tightening cycle in response to persistent inflation has made dollar-denominated assets more attractive due to their higher interest rate differentials compared to those in other developed economies. During times of global uncertainty, investors seeking higher returns or a safe-haven often flock to the dollar, further driving up its value.

The ECB is scheduled to announce its rate decision at 15:15 (GMT+3) today and hold a press conference at 15:45 (GMT+3). After seven consecutive interest rate cuts, the main refinancing rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.15%. The uncertainties surrounding the ECB's interest rate decision and the trade relations between the US and the EU have intensified investors' worries, leading to a rapid decline in the euro.

Technical Analysis

On the 15-minute chart of EURUSD, the Bollinger Bands are opening downward, and the moving averages are diverging downwards. According to the MACD indicator, the fast and slow lines have just crossed below the zero line. The RSI is below 40, indicating a short-term sell signal. At present, there is no sign of the decline stopping, and the support level below is near the EMA200 at a price of 1.174.

On the four-hour chart, the upward channel remains intact, but a "Dark Cloud Cover" candlestick pattern has emerged, suggesting that the pair is likely to test the EMA12. This is an uptrend line. As long as the candlestick's body does not break below this line, the upward trend of EURUSD will remain intact. If it breaks below, the pair will further test the middle line of the Bollinger Bands and the EMA200 for support. It should be noted that the MACD on the four-hour chart is about to form a bearish cross. If the pair breaks below the uptrend line and a bearish cross occurs on the MACD, traders should be alert to the possibility of a significant correction.

Overall, regardless of the short-term pullbacks in the EURUSD, the long-term bullish trend remains unchanged. Traders are advised to adopt a strategy of buying on dips.

Euro Tumbles Ahead of Interest Rate Decision: What's Next?_1

Euro Tumbles Ahead of Interest Rate Decision: What's Next?_2

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.17

Target Price: 1.175

Stop Loss: 1.166

Support: 1.174/1.17/1.162

Resistance: 1.178/1.18/1.2

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Commodity

Summary:

The recent gold surge to the resistance level of 3440 and began to experience downward pressure and a pullback. If it stabilizes near the support level of 3365, gold may continue to rise.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3364.08

Entry Price

3490.00

3340.00

4299.39 +20.10 +0.47%

240.8

Pips

Loss

3340.00

3339.95

Exit Price

3364.08

Entry Price

3490.00

Fundamentals

As of today's European trading session, gold is traded near 3372, maintaining the retracement trend. On the macro level, the dollar index fell to a two-week low, which has further supported gold due to the weakening of the US dollar; at the same time, the easing of international trade relations has reduced the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset to some extent.

The recent U.S.-Japan auto tariff deal, as well as the 15% reciprocal tariff agreement in the works between the U.S. and Europe, have boosted market risk appetite. According to the Financial Times, the agreement will cover a variety of areas such as aircraft, spirits, medical devices, etc. If it cannot be reached by August 1st, the U.S. may impose a 30% high tariff on EU goods. The “soft landing” of trade tensions on the one hand alleviates the push for safe-haven demand, and on the other hand enhances commodity supply expectations, creating a cross influence on gold prices.

Technical Analysis

Gold Technical Retracement Is near the Key Support of 3365. The Fundamental Battle Between Bulls and Bears Awaits a Breakthrough._1

From the 4-hour chart, the recent gold surge to the resistance level of 3440 and began to experience downward pressure and a pullback yesterday. It has since retreated by more than 70 dollars up to the current European trading session. The RSI indicator shows that it is approaching the oversold zone, and the short-term space for further retracement may be limited.

From the overall trend, the recent candlestick movements have been above the upward trend line, showing a clear upward trend. Today, it has retreated to the support level of 3365.00. If it stabilizes and recovers at this support level, gold is likely to maintain an upward trend in the short term and continue to test the resistance level of 3440.00.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 3365.00

Target price: 3490.00

Stop Loss: 3340.00

Expiration date: 2025-8-7 23:00:00

Support: 3365.00, 3344.88

Resistance: 3386.00, 3440.0

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Forex

Economic

Summary:

BUY XAGUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

38.299

Entry Price

39.000

38.000

61.927 -1.614 -2.54%

29.9

Pips

Loss

38.000

Exit Price

38.299

Entry Price

39.000

Fundamentals

The U.S.-Japan agreement includes reciprocal tariffs of 15% and expands market access for U.S. exports covering products such as automobiles, agricultural products, and rice. Analysts at ING wrote: “The announcement eases current trade tensions and improves the global risk.” He added that precious metal prices are under pressure as capital shifted to equities and riskier assets. Meanwhile, the dollar made a modest recovery, bouncing off two-week lows. While the dollar's rebound was modest, it was enough to trigger profit-taking in silver, which made the move a corrective pullback rather than a trend reversal.

The dollar index fell further to 97.4 on Wednesday as investors digested the latest developments in U.S. trade policy. Reports indicated that the U.S. would cut tariffs on the European Union to 15% from the previously threatened 30%. In addition, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted that the current tariff truce with China could be extended before its expiration on August 12, which intensified the dollar index's correction. In terms of monetary policy, the minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed that some members believe that tariffs will lead to inflation, which has prompted the Fed to temporarily postpone further interest rate cuts. The dollar is in the midst of a complex landscape with an evolving trade situation, mixed economic indicators, and a cautious stance from the Fed. While recent tariff truce negotiations and positive retail data have provided some support, the overall trend of the dollar remains weak amid broader market conditions and upcoming data releases today.

Technical Analysis

After breaking through the recent high of 39.1 at the one-hour level, silver quickly encountered resistance and fell back to around 38.78. Meanwhile, the price was operating within the lower band of Bollinger bands, with the band opening downward and the moving averages diverging downward. The MACD indicator shows that the MACD line and the signal line have just entered below the 0 axis, and the RSI is below 40. This indicates a short-term bearish signal. The daily chart shows that the upward momentum is weakening, and the " Evening Star" pattern has emerged. There is a high probability that it will test the 12-day EMA line. This is an upward trend line. As long as the entity does not fall below, the upward trend of silver will not change. If it breaks below, it will further test the daily middle line of Bollinger bands and the 50-day EMA support. Overall, the adjustment of silver is for a better upward movement. The brief decline is an opportunity for the bulls to intervene. In terms of strategy, it's recommended to go long at the lows.

Trend Clarity! Will Silver Break 40 After Pullback?_1

Trend Clarity! Will Silver Break 40 After Pullback?_2

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 38.3

Target Price: 39

Stop Loss: 38

Support: 38.3, 37.9, 37.2

Resistance: 39, 39.5, 40

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Economic

Political

Summary:

A failure to hold above these levels—particularly if the price closes below both moving averages—could accelerate bearish momentum.

SELL GBPUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

1.36200

Entry Price

1.34150

1.36800

1.33707 -0.00148 -0.11%

Pips

EXPIRED

1.34150

1.33567

Exit Price

1.36200

Entry Price

1.36800

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Thursday that the announcement of a new nominee for Federal Reserve Chair is expected to come in either December or January, according to Bloomberg. Bessent emphasized that there is "no rush" to name a successor to current Chair Jerome Powell, noting that the eventual nominee could be selected from the current board members or among district bank presidents.

In parallel, the U.S. has reached a tentative trade deal with Japan that includes a reciprocal 15% tariff on all Japanese products. However, the Trump administration’s approach may have inadvertently complicated matters for foreign firms—particularly Japanese ones—looking to relocate their production lines to the U.S. Meanwhile, speculation has emerged about a potential trade agreement with the European Union, though senior officials within the Trump team have downplayed these rumors, labeling them as mere speculation.

On the housing front, U.S. home prices surged to their highest level for the month of June since 1999, rising 2% year-over-year. However, existing home sales dropped by -2.7% month-over-month to 3.93 million units, down from 4.04 million the previous month.

In a significant shift in trade policy, President Trump announced a 19% tariff on imports from the Philippines. In return, the U.S. secured duty-free access for a broad range of American goods—an indication of a strategic realignment in U.S. trade policy in Southeast Asia. Under a revised agreement with Indonesia, tariffs on Indonesian exports to the U.S. will be lowered to 19%, down from the previously proposed 32%. However, any goods suspected of being rerouted to avoid tariffs will face a steep 40% penalty. In return, Indonesia agreed to eliminate tariffs on over 99% of American exports and dismantle a series of non-tariff barriers, further opening its markets to U.S. businesses.

Meanwhile, trade talks between the U.S. and India remain stalled. Although President Trump once suggested a deal with India was imminent, deep disagreements over agricultural and dairy goods have led to a stalemate. According to Reuters, expectations for even a limited agreement before new tariffs take effect have diminished. While U.S. trade officials are expected to travel to India later this month, the delay increases the risk of new levies on Indian exports.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell remains under scrutiny after President Trump publicly criticized him once again, calling him an “idiot” and hinting at possible removal within eight months. Despite the ongoing pressure, former Soros Fund CIO Scott Bessent said Powell has no reason to resign. In a recent interview, Bessent described Powell as a committed public servant who should remain in office until his term concludes in May 2026.

Looking ahead, the U.K. economic calendar features the preliminary July readings for the S&P Global Flash PMIs. Across the Atlantic, the U.S. economic agenda includes its own Flash PMIs along with weekly jobless claims data for the week ending July 19. If GBPUSD Fails to Break Resistance, a Head-and-Shoulders Pattern Could Trigger a Sell-Off_1

If GBPUSD Fails to Break Resistance, a Head-and-Shoulders Pattern Could Trigger a Sell-Off_1

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is currently in a bullish swing that appears to be losing momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbing rapidly to 73.93—a level that clearly indicates overbought conditions on the 4-hour chart. The speed of this move suggests the pair may soon face resistance near the 1.3620 mark, a zone that previously acted as a key ceiling. If the price stalls here once again, it could shape a classic head-and-shoulders reversal pattern—a well-known formation signaling a potential trend reversal. A bearish reaction from this area could set the stage for a downward move toward the 1.3415 region.

Additionally, the 100- and 200-period moving averages are converging just below current levels, at 1.3536 and 1.3553 respectively. A failure to hold above these levels—particularly if the price closes below both moving averages—could accelerate bearish momentum. On the other hand, a strong breakout above the 1.3620 resistance zone would invalidate the bearish outlook, potentially paving the way for a renewed bullish leg.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.3620

Target price: 1.3415

Stop loss: 1.3680

Validity: Aug 06, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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