AUDUSD Could Gain Traction if the Reversal Signal Holds

Forex

Economic

Summary:

This type of setup often signals a possible trend reversal. In this case, the preceding movement has been predominantly bearish, and the formation of this pattern could indicate the early stages of a bullish reversal

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.64367

Entry Price

0.65050

0.63850

0.66446 +0.00063 +0.09%

28.2

Pips

Profit

0.63850

0.64649

Exit Price

0.64367

Entry Price

0.65050

The White House announced on Thursday that President Trump will maintain the global minimum tariff rate at 10%, resisting prior speculation that he might raise it to 15% or even higher. However, in a surprising move, the administration imposed a steep 39% tariff on Switzerland. This sudden decision has weighed heavily on the Swiss franc, which is now underperforming relative to its G-10 peers following the unexpected escalation in trade tensions.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve kept its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at the 4.25%–4.50% range during its July policy meeting, in line with market expectations. During the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that no final decision has been made regarding a potential policy shift in September. He also noted that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices may take time to fully materialize, suggesting a cautious approach moving forward.

Market attention now turns to the upcoming U.S. employment data for July, due later on Friday. Economists anticipate a 110,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, while the unemployment rate is projected to edge higher to 4.2% from 4.1%. Additionally, average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% year-over-year, slightly up from the previous reading of 3.7%. Should these figures come in below expectations, the U.S. dollar could face downward pressure, potentially weighing on USD pairs.

Turning to Australia, retail sales—a key gauge of consumer activity—jumped by a robust 1.2% in June, significantly surpassing forecasts of a 0.4% gain and marking a sharp improvement over May’s 0.5% increase, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. On a quarterly basis, household spending rose by 0.3% in Q2, also beating the previous reading of 0.1% and signaling stronger-than-expected domestic demand.

Despite the upside surprise, the strong retail figures are unlikely to shift market expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may proceed with an interest rate cut at its August policy meeting. With inflation continuing to ease, the case for further policy easing remains intact. The latest CPI report, released on Wednesday, showed a modest 0.7% increase in consumer prices in Q2, reinforcing the belief that the central bank still has room to act.

Minutes from the RBA’s most recent meeting highlighted two critical variables that will guide its next move: inflation and labor market conditions. With no major employment data scheduled ahead of the August 12 meeting, the softer-than-expected inflation report has gained greater weight in the central bank’s policy outlook. AUDUSD Could Gain Traction if the Reversal Signal Holds_1

AUDUSD Could Gain Traction if the Reversal Signal Holds_1

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD has recently pulled back to test the 0.6421 level, a zone where a potential inverted head and shoulders pattern—or “libra” formation—is beginning to emerge. This type of setup often signals a possible trend reversal. In this case, the preceding movement has been predominantly bearish, and the formation of this pattern could indicate the early stages of a bullish reversal, with near-term upside targets around the 0.6507 level, which aligns with immediate resistance.

The 100-period and 200-period moving averages on the 4-hour chart are currently positioned at 0.6531 and 0.6525, respectively. Should an upward breakout occur, the price could gravitate toward these levels. Moving averages often act as dynamic support and resistance zones due to their representation of average price levels, so price action tends to return to them over time. Furthermore, the RSI recently dipped into oversold territory, which could attract buying interest from traders watching for signs of reversal.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.6436

Target price: 0.6505

Stop loss: 0.6385

Validity: Aug 08, 2025 15:00:00

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Manuel

Economic

Central Bank

Summary:

This rebound aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels, particularly the 0.50 and 0.618 zones, suggesting that the corrective pullback may have already found support.

BUY AUDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.52323

Entry Price

0.52600

0.52050

0.53392 -0.00015 -0.03%

27.3

Pips

Loss

0.52050

0.52049

Exit Price

0.52323

Entry Price

0.52600

Australian retail sales — a key indicator of consumer spending — surged by 1.2% in June, significantly surpassing both the expected 0.4% rise and the previous month’s 0.5% increase, according to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. On a quarterly basis, consumer spending rose by 0.3% in Q2, also beating the prior reading of 0.1%, pointing to a stronger-than-expected domestic demand.

Despite the upside surprise, the robust retail figures are unlikely to deter expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could move ahead with a rate cut in its upcoming August policy meeting. Market participants remain increasingly convinced that rate reductions are on the table, as inflationary pressures continue to ease. The most recent CPI data, released on Wednesday, showed consumer prices rose by a modest 0.7% in Q2, reinforcing the case for policy easing.

The minutes from the RBA’s latest meeting emphasized that two key economic indicators will play a central role in shaping the decision at the August 12 meeting: inflation and labor market performance. With no labor market report scheduled before the next meeting, the slightly softer-than-expected inflation numbers have gained even more significance.

Meanwhile, data released Thursday by Switzerland’s Federal Statistical Office added further momentum to the Swiss Franc, as demand for safe haven assets intensified. Real Retail Sales jumped by 3.8% year-over-year in June, a sharp beat over the expected 0.2% and accelerating from May’s revised 0.3% (initially reported at 0%). On a monthly basis, sales rebounded by 1.5%, marking the first positive reading in five months following May’s downwardly revised 0.4% decline.

In a separate release, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) reported a CHF 15.3 billion loss for the first half of 2025, mainly due to valuation losses on its foreign currency investments. The sharp depreciation of the U.S. dollar — which dropped over 10% in response to new tariff policies under President Trump — wiped CHF 22.7 billion off the SNB’s foreign exchange holdings. The report highlighted the SNB’s vulnerability to global currency fluctuations and ongoing volatility tied to trade policy uncertainty. Bullish Momentum Could Resume Above the Trendline_1

Bullish Momentum Could Resume Above the Trendline_1

Technical Analysis

AUD/CHF recently dipped to a low of 0.5212, briefly breaking below the ascending trendline. However, the pair has since regained ground, climbing back above the trendline — a development that may indicate a potential continuation of the bullish structure. If the price manages to clear the next resistance level, it could pave the way for a more sustained upward move.

This rebound aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels, particularly the 0.50 and 0.618 zones, suggesting that the corrective pullback may have already found support. A continuation of the rally remains plausible as long as the trendline holds.

From a momentum perspective, the RSI reached a low of 31.98, nearing oversold territory. This suggests that buyers might be preparing to step in at current levels. In addition, the 100- and 200-period moving averages, currently positioned at 0.5236 and 0.5228 respectively, are situated very close to the current price. A firm close above these moving averages could strengthen bullish momentum and open the door for a potential retest of 0.5259.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.5230

Target price: 0.5260

Stop loss: 0.5205

Validity: Aug 08, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Gold slumped more than 1.5% on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve held rates steady but delivered a hawkish message, while solid U.S. GDP data further dampened investor hopes for a rate cut in September.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3295.00

Entry Price

3200.00

3340.00

4201.51 +3.60 +0.09%

450.0

Pips

Loss

3200.00

3340.03

Exit Price

3295.00

Entry Price

3340.00

Gold prices were dealt a heavy blow on Wednesday, tumbling sharply as a potent combination of hawkish Federal Reserve messaging and firmer-than-expected economic data upended market sentiment. The Federal Reserve, in a 9-2 split vote, opted to leave interest rates unchanged as expected. However, it was the tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference that truly rattled bullion markets, setting off a selloff that dragged spot gold (XAU/USD) below the key $3,300 level to trade as low as $3,268 at one point.

By the time of writing, gold had settled near $3,276, down more than 1.5% from the previous day’s levels. This sharp move lower underscores how sensitive the gold market remains to shifts in monetary policy expectations—particularly when those shifts come with a dose of ambiguity and uncertainty.

The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady was anticipated, but Powell’s firm pushback against the idea of a rate cut in September came as a surprise to many investors. Rather than providing clarity, Powell adopted a “meeting-by-meeting” approach, declining to offer guidance on when easing might begin. He noted that while inflation pressures have eased from their 2022 peaks, they remain “somewhat elevated,” and that the full impact of trade tariffs on consumer prices may take longer to materialize than previously assumed. “Tariff passthrough to prices may be slower than thought,” Powell stated, in what could be seen as a subtle argument for continued policy caution.

The broader monetary policy statement offered a mixed picture. While it acknowledged that economic activity has moderated in the first half of the year, it also highlighted the resilience of the labor market and persistent inflationary pressures. The Fed reiterated its dual mandate of achieving maximum employment and a 2% inflation target but added a caveat that “uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated.”

Adding to the market’s angst was fresh data on U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2025. The report showed the economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace, a sign of underlying strength. However, beneath the headline, there were troubling signs: consumer spending growth slowed, and business investment fell sharply—two trends that could indicate fragility beneath the surface. According to Reuters, most economists now forecast full-year GDP growth at just 1.5%, below the Fed’s own projection of 1.8%.

For gold, this macro backdrop is proving challenging. A resilient economy and sticky inflation diminish the urgency for rate cuts, which in turn makes non-yielding assets like gold less attractive compared to interest-bearing alternatives such as U.S. Treasuries. As Treasury yields edge higher and the dollar maintains its strength, gold finds itself on the defensive.

Technical Analysis

The technical landscape is not offering much reprieve either. While there was an attempt at an intraday recovery after hitting oversold levels on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the bounce was shallow and unconvincing. Gold prices initially rebounded from $3,268 but failed to reclaim the $3,300 level in any sustained way. The rebound was viewed by many as a temporary correction within a larger bearish trend rather than a reversal of fortune.

There remains strong resistance near the $3,319 area, a region where previous price breakdowns have occurred. Analysts see this zone as a potential entry point for short positions, particularly given that it aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent down move. On the downside, a swing low support near $3,271—close to the 127.2% Fibonacci extension—remains a near-term target. If that level breaks, a deeper pullback toward $3,250 or even $3,200 could unfold in the sessions ahead.

Despite the limited recovery, the broader trend remains bearish. Gold continues to trade beneath its short-term descending bias line, with momentum favoring further downside unless there is a dramatic shift in either Fed policy expectations or inflation dynamics.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3295

STOP LOSS: 3340

TAKE PROFIT: 3200

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

On 31 July 2025, Bitcoin bounced off the $118,000 level following the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady. With institutional inflows and ETF demand rising, technical momentum supports a buy strategy targeting $119,000–$120,300. A break below $117,950 would invalidate the bullish outlook....

BUY BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

118200.0

Entry Price

119100.0

117950.2

90989.5 +1434.7 +1.60%

249.8

Pips

Loss

117950.2

117950.1

Exit Price

118200.0

Entry Price

119100.0

Overview

Bitcoin dipped toward $116,000 immediately after the U.S. Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady, then rebounded to trade near $118,500–118,900 (roughly +0.4–1.3% intraday) as markets responded positively to strong tech earnings and macro sentiment.

Market sentiment

Investor sentiment has stabilized around the $118K zone. Institutional flows include ETF purchases and crypto hedge funds reopening with large capital targets such as Syz Capital aiming to raise 2,000 BTC (~$200M). Macro tailwinds include clear regulatory direction like the Genius Act and Clarity Act which reinforce confidence among institutional participants.

Technical analysis

Bitcoin holds key support at $118K—buy dip toward $120K?_1

Momentum favors longs above 117,950.25, with upside targets at 119,080.50, 119,729.00, and 120,295.00. If price falls below that level, bearish targets shift to 116,883.75, 116,195.25, and 115,724.75. Overall price action remains range-bound between $117K and $120K, with support at $118K and resistance toward $120K.

Trading recommendation

Entry (limit buy): $117,900–118,200 (near support and key trigger level)

TP1: $119,080–119,100 (first logical ceiling)

Stop Loss: below $117,950.25 (violation of trigger level flips bias)

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

On 31 July 2025, gold (XAU/USD) found support just above $3,267, rebounding sharply to trade around $3,295–3,300. Trade uncertainty triggered a bounce, while incoming U.S. core PCE inflation data and Fed cues may influence momentum...

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3297.88

Entry Price

3321.00

3283.00

4201.51 +3.60 +0.09%

148.8

Pips

Loss

3283.00

3282.96

Exit Price

3297.88

Entry Price

3321.00

Overview

Gold fell to a one-month low of $3,267.8, pressured by strong U.S. data and expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady. However, rising trade tensions ahead of August 1 prompted safe-haven bids and pushed the price back toward $3,295–3,300. On Investing.com and Trading Economics, gold is quoted near $3,295–3,302, with technical resistance around $3,314–3,315 and range-bound trading continuing between $3,250–3,350.

Market sentiment

Investors remain cautious. The World Gold Council mentions central bank buying slowed in Q2 (from 243 to 166 tons), though overall demand remains elevated. HSBC warns that momentum is fading despite strong mid‑2025 gains of ~27%. Meanwhile, Citi projects gold could fall below $3,000 later in 2025 if demand slows and growth reaccelerates.

Technical analysis

Gold rebounds from near $3,267 support—can bulls drive it above $3,300?_1

Gold's short-term trend turned bearish yesterday after breaking below the $3,326–3,315 range, targeting support around $3,214–3,191. Resistance zones stand at $3,350–3,343 and $3,391–3,380. Economies.com finds gold was rejected at $3,310, remains below the 50‑EMA, and RSI suggests negative bias unless regained.

Trading recommendation

Entry (limit buy): 3,285–3,290 (post small retracement or consolidation)

TP2: 3,321(higher targets from Likerebate and Economies.com)

Stop Loss: below 3,283, invalidating support if broken

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

On 31 July 2025, Brent traded around $71.80–72.00, showing weakness near upper resistance. Despite occasional rebounds, bearish signals are mounting amid growing supply outlook and weak demand trends. Indicators suggest limited upside and potential drop toward $71.00 and lower....

SELL BRENT

Close Time

CLOSED

71.000

Entry Price

70.000

72.000

63.557 +0.101 +0.16%

100.0

Pips

Profit

70.000

69.997

Exit Price

71.000

Entry Price

72.000

Overview

Brent futures are trading at approximately $71.35–72.23/bbl, slightly down from earlier highs in the $72.80 range. Despite recent geopolitical flare‑ups, improved supply expectations from OPEC+ and renewed Chinese demand concerns are pressuring prices. Brent could average around $60/bbl by late 2025 if supply constraints ease further.

Market sentiment

Crude is currently in a bearish trend, with analysts recommending a "sell on rise" approach amid stagnant demand growth perspectives and expanding supply from non‑OPEC producers. Markets have also shifted to a neutral-to-bearish technical bias as speculative long positions in Brent and WTI reach multi‑week highs, suggesting a crowded trade ripe for reversal.

Technical analysis

Brent crude fails to break $72 territory—bearish move on rising supply risk?_1

Daily trend: Brent is trading near the upper resistance band around $72.80, having failed multiple breakout attempts. Intervene with caution on long positions.

the RSI sits around 43, stochastic ~29, MACD slightly bullish—but the broader indicator set leans bearish or oversold with limited bullish momentum.

Trading recommendation

Entry Zone (Sell limit): $71—near resistance after minor rebound and failed breakout.

TP: $70.00–70.50 (deeper downside scenario if momentum persists and U.S./Chine slowdown accelerates)

Stop Loss: Above $72.95 (break above upper resistance invalidates bearish case)

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The British Pound continues its downward spiral against the US Dollar, pressured by strong U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, with technical signals warning of further declines as the market reprices interest rate expectations.

SELL GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.32300

Entry Price

1.28630

1.38800

1.33380 +0.00068 +0.05%

344.3

Pips

Loss

1.28630

1.35743

Exit Price

1.32300

Entry Price

1.38800

The British Pound extended its losing streak for the sixth consecutive session on Thursday, plunging to the 1.3200 handle against the U.S. Dollar during the European trading session. The GBP/USD pair remains under intense selling pressure, with the U.S. Dollar holding firm near a two-month high as measured by the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which remains elevated near the 100.00 mark following a string of strong U.S. economic data and hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Investors are rapidly unwinding their expectations for a September rate cut from the Federal Reserve after the latest macroeconomic data painted a picture of a resilient U.S. economy. The sharp repricing of rate expectations has reinforced dollar strength, dragging the Pound and other major currencies lower in the process.

The turning point in sentiment came after the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed that the American economy grew at an annualized pace of 3% in the second quarter, surpassing consensus forecasts of 2.4%. This marks a dramatic rebound from the first quarter, where GDP had contracted by 0.5%. The acceleration in growth, coupled with improving labor market conditions, has given the Fed renewed confidence to hold interest rates steady.

Adding to the bullish tone for the U.S. Dollar was a surprisingly strong report from ADP, which showed the private sector added 104,000 new jobs in June, comfortably beating the expected 78,000. This followed a weaker reading in May, when the workforce contracted by 23,000, and has now raised questions about whether the earlier weakness was simply a one-off rather than a trend.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced this sentiment during his latest public remarks, stating that the U.S. economy remains in a “solid position” and that inflation, while “somewhat above target,” does not yet justify a change in the current policy stance. Powell’s assertion that the current rate setting is appropriate has dealt a blow to dovish market participants who were banking on a September rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a September rate cut has dropped to just 43.2%, down sharply from 63.3% earlier in the week.

This hawkish pivot from the Fed has created a widening divergence between the U.S. and the United Kingdom. While the Federal Reserve appears content to wait and observe further data, the Bank of England remains in a far more precarious position. Britain’s economic recovery continues to be uneven, hampered by sticky inflation, soft business investment, and rising consumer debt burdens. With the UK economy at risk of stagnation, the Bank of England is navigating an increasingly narrow path between keeping inflation under control and avoiding a deeper economic slowdown.

Technical Analysis

The divergence in economic fundamentals and policy outlooks is now being starkly reflected in the charts. The GBP/USD pair has not only lost ground but has also broken key technical structures that previously supported the bullish narrative. The pair has decisively fallen below the ascending channel that had been intact since mid-April, marking a significant shift in market sentiment. This break is not just a technical breach but a confirmation that sellers are now firmly in control.

The breakdown from this structure, coupled with the pair’s continued trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average, has intensified bearish pressure. Price action has also struggled to gain traction after testing a previously identified bearish order block near the 1.34166 level, which has now been validated as strong resistance. The rejection from this area only underscores the dominance of sellers in the current market environment.

While short-term technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index suggest the pair may be entering oversold territory, any rebound is likely to be shallow and corrective in nature. The most probable scenario from here is a brief pullback into the 1.32700 to 1.33000 zone — potentially a retest of broken support — followed by a resumption of the downtrend. If the bearish momentum continues, the pair is likely to test the 1.30300 level in the coming sessions, with deeper downside potential extending toward the 1.28630 area.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GBPUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3230

STOP LOSS: 1.3880

TAKE PROFIT: 1.28630

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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