AUD/USD Climbs Toward 0.6500 as Wage Growth Surprises; US CPI Miss Fuels Rate Cut Bets

Economic

Summary:

The Australian Dollar extended its rally against the US Dollar, nearing the 0.6500 mark, bolstered by stronger-than-expected wage growth and softer US inflation.

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.64600

Entry Price

0.66000

0.63700

0.66544 +0.00024 +0.04%

48.3

Pips

Profit

0.63700

0.65083

Exit Price

0.64600

Entry Price

0.66000

The Australian Dollar continued its winning streak for a second consecutive session on Wednesday, gaining nearly 2% for the week against the Greenback, as upbeat domestic wage data and renewed pressure on the US Dollar buoyed sentiment around the AUD. The AUD/USD pair edged closer to the psychologically significant 0.6500 level, a threshold that traders are now eyeing as a key resistance area, amid broad-based weakness in the USD and changing central bank expectations on both sides of the Pacific.

The latest upside in the Aussie Dollar comes on the back of a combination of domestic economic resilience and external dovish signals from the United States. Australian wage growth surprised to the upside in the first quarter, with the Wage Price Index rising 3.4% year-on-year, outpacing the market consensus of 3.2%. On a quarterly basis, wages accelerated to 0.9%, compared to 0.7% in the prior quarter, and above the expected 0.8%. This data reinforces the narrative that Australia’s labor market remains tight, despite signs of a broader economic slowdown.

This stronger wage growth could typically argue against near-term monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). However, markets continue to price in a rate cut at the upcoming RBA meeting on May 20. According to the ASX RBA Rate Indicator, there is now a 54% implied probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut—from the current cash rate of 4.10% down to 3.60%—suggesting that investors expect the central bank to act decisively in response to fragile growth dynamics and soft consumer demand.

Despite the robust wage print, the RBA remains in a difficult position. Inflation has come down materially from its peak, and growth indicators have been mixed. Housing markets are stabilizing, but consumer spending remains under pressure. While the labor market continues to post positive metrics, the RBA may feel compelled to ease policy to prevent a deeper slowdown, especially as global headwinds mount.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped below the 100.00 level, hitting a fresh multi-month low following Tuesday’s release of softer-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The inflation print reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon shift its stance toward policy easing, possibly as early as September, despite ongoing caution in official rhetoric. Headline CPI rose just 0.3% in April, slightly below forecasts, while core inflation showed similar moderation.

Although the Fed has maintained a steady hand and continues to emphasize data dependency, the markets are increasingly leaning toward the idea of a pivot. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut by September now stands above 70%, as traders bet that disinflation trends will continue and that the Fed will eventually act to prevent an economic contraction.

This potential divergence in central bank policy—between a cautious Fed and a potentially proactive RBA—has added an interesting dimension to AUD/USD dynamics. While Australia’s near-term outlook remains clouded by a possible rate cut, the medium-term trajectory for the US Dollar looks vulnerable if the Fed indeed begins to unwind its tight policy stance.

On the data front, Wednesday is relatively quiet for both countries, though traders will be keeping an ear on comments from Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Any remarks hinting at a shift in the Fed’s tone could inject fresh volatility into the currency pair.

Looking ahead, Thursday will bring a fresh batch of macroeconomic data that could further shape the AUD/USD path. Australia’s April employment report is due, and any signs of labor market cooling could reinforce RBA cut bets. Simultaneously, the US will release key prints on Producer Prices, Retail Sales, and Initial Jobless Claims—each carrying potential to move the USD.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, AUD/USD broke and closed above a key horizontal resistance level on Tuesday, suggesting a near-term shift in momentum. The pair is now retesting this breakout area, forming a small ascending triangle pattern on the hourly chart—a structure often associated with bullish continuation.

Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signaling positive momentum, and the price is comfortably trading above its 50-period moving average. A clear breakout above 0.6500 could open the door toward the next major resistance near 0.6600. This level not only marks a psychological barrier but also coincides with a previous swing high.

In contrast, failure to maintain traction above 0.6500 could prompt some consolidation, with initial support resting at 0.6440, followed by a stronger floor near 0.6390.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY AUDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6460

STOP LOSS: 0.6370

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6600

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Alan

Commodity

Summary:

While gold's safe-haven appeal has diminished, the fundamental, long-term rationale for holding gold remains intact.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3280.00

Entry Price

3090.00

3350.00

4340.13 +40.74 +0.95%

700.0

Pips

Loss

3090.00

3350.00

Exit Price

3280.00

Entry Price

3350.00

Fundamentals

Yesterday, the U.S. reported that the April CPI rose 2.3% year-over-year, below the market expectation of 2.4%, core CPI rose 2.8% year-over-year. Despite inflation cooling for the third consecutive month, Federal Reserve officials continue to emphasize the need for "sticky inflation to maintain high interest rates." Market expectations for a June rate cut have significantly decreased to 68%, with a total of only 51 basis points of rate cuts expected for the year. The U.S. Dollar Index stabilized above the 100 threshold, while the 10-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.47%. The real interest rate (nominal interest rate minus inflation) rose to -2.26%, significantly increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Subsequently, in the tariff adjustment agreement that took effect today between China and the U.S., the U.S. removed 91% of the additional tariffs on Chinese goods and suspended 24% of the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. China simultaneously removed 91% of its retaliatory tariffs and suspended 24% of its retaliatory measures. This agreement substantially eased pressure on the global supply chain, leading to a shift in market risk appetite towards risk assets such as stocks. Gold ETFs saw a single-day outflow of 1.2%, reflecting the accelerated withdrawal of safe-haven funds.

Furthermore, the easing of expectations for Russian-Ukrainian peace talks and the implementation of the India-Pakistan ceasefire agreement have mitigated market concerns regarding escalation, with the marginal easing of geopolitical risks further diminishing the safe-haven premium of gold.

However, the medium- to long-term support logic for gold has not been entirely dismantled. Continuous gold purchases by global central banks (net increase of 244 tons in the first quarter of 2025) and the credit risk of the U.S. dollar (U.S. debt exceeding US$36 trillion) still provide structural support for gold. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for six consecutive months, reflecting the deepening of the "de-dollarization" strategy, while the U.S. government's debt ceiling crisis continues to challenge the credit of the U.S. dollar, which may reactivate the safe-haven demand for gold during repeated trade negotiations.

Technical Analysis

Pullback Has Not Concluded, and the Bullish Trend Remains Intact_1

In the 4H timeframe, the current candlestick patterns for gold are exhibiting a high-level consolidation phase. The price has retested the 3200 level twice without a breakdown, indicating a degree of support, which suggests a potential for an upward rebound. However, the recent breach of the MA144 by the candlesticks increases the likelihood of a short-term bearish trend.

Currently, gold is supported at the 3200 level and may experience a short-term rally to test the 3290 resistance level. If bearish signals emerge at this resistance, gold could retest the 3200 support. A break below 3200 would likely open further downside potential, with the initial target at 3170, and potentially extending to 3083.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 3280.00

Target Price: 3090.00

Stop Loss: 3350.00

Valid Until: May 28, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 3200.00, 3083.93

Resistance: 3265.39, 3291.17

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Economic

Central Bank

Summary:

A successful retest of the broken trendline from above could act as a launchpad for renewed bullish momentum toward the next resistance zone.

BUY EURCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.93650

Entry Price

0.94900

0.92900

0.93540 +0.00098 +0.10%

45.9

Pips

Loss

0.92900

0.93191

Exit Price

0.93650

Entry Price

0.94900

Several European Central Bank (ECB) officials stated on Tuesday that the institution's strategic review will largely validate its past policy decisions, including quantitative easing (QE), despite ongoing criticism from some policymakers. The officials also emphasized that the ECB will retain its commitment to "decisive action" during periods of low inflation and interest rates following the review.

Gabriel Makhlouf, a member of the ECB Governing Council and Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, highlighted that rising uncertainty is weighing on investment across the euro area. He noted that recent soft data point to a significant cooling in both business and consumer sentiment, suggesting growing fragility in the region’s economic outlook.

However, brighter news came from Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, which surged to 25.2 in May from -14 in April—well above the market consensus of 11.9. Likewise, the Eurozone ZEW Index jumped to 11.6 from -18.5, indicating renewed optimism among financial market experts despite persistent macroeconomic headwinds.

On the trade front, the European Union and Canada remain the only major economies that have not reported any meaningful progress in trade talks with the United States since President Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs. In a proactive move, the EU has prepared a set of retaliatory measures should the negotiations end without a satisfactory outcome. On Thursday, the European Commission released a public consultation paper detailing potential countermeasures on up to €95 billion worth of U.S. imports—an escalation that could reignite trade tensions between the two economies.

Meanwhile, easing trade concerns globally has triggered a shift toward riskier assets, which has weighed on traditional safe havens such as the Swiss franc (CHF). At the same time, Swiss 10-year government bond yields rose toward 0.37%, tracking the global increase in borrowing costs as investor risk appetite improved.

However, gains in Swiss yields remain capped by growing expectations of further monetary easing from the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Last week, SNB Chairman Thomas Schlegel reaffirmed the central bank’s readiness to intervene in currency markets and implement deeper rate cuts, possibly pushing rates further into negative territory if inflation remains subdued below the bank’s target. Bullish Momentum May Continue Following Breakout_1

Bullish Momentum May Continue Following Breakout_1

Technical Analysis

The EUR/CHF pair has broken out to the upside from an ascending triangle formation, rallying from the support of the 100- and 200-period moving averages at 0.9362 and 0.9372. The pair closed decisively above both moving averages, which could indicate the beginning of a sustained bullish phase. If this breakout is followed by a solid bullish crossover of the moving averages, momentum could carry the pair toward the next key resistance near the 0.9500 level.

That said, if price pulls back and breaks below the ascending trendline, the bullish setup could be invalidated, opening the door for deeper losses. Currently, the RSI stands at 57, indicating that the pair is not in overbought territory, leaving room for further upside. A successful retest of the broken trendline from above could act as a launchpad for renewed bullish momentum toward the next resistance zone.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.9365

Target price: 0.9490

Stop loss: 0.9290

Validity: May 23, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

The cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp downturn in the last 24 hours, with Bitcoin breaching the US$102,000 level, resulting in over US$730 million in liquidations. Of these, 73% were long positions, indicating excessive bullish sentiment among traders.

BUY BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

102547.8

Entry Price

106500.0

99500.0

89482.1 +454.4 +0.51%

3952.2

Pips

Profit

99500.0

106513.5

Exit Price

102547.8

Entry Price

106500.0

Fundamentals

Bitcoin experienced a brief dip below US$101,000 this week before recovering to approximately US$103,560, representing a daily fluctuation of about 2.6%. The cryptocurrency continues to consolidate within a US$100,000-US$105,000 range in the short term.

Market analysis indicates Bitcoin's decline below US$103,000 amid heightened liquidations, while whale activity remained subdued. This suggests the price correction aimed to flush out over-leveraged long positions.

Liquidation data reveals significant volatility among highly leveraged positions. Over the past few hours, various crypto exchanges saw liquidations totaling US$730 million. Of these, 93.44% were long positions. Bybit led in liquidations, with US$49.71 million, followed by Binance at US$26.72 million.

Despite market volatility, overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Notably, whale behavior appears stable, with no significant sell-offs of long positions. Furthermore, substantial buying interest persists on the order books. Consequently, some market observers view the current pullback as a consolidation phase rather than the start of a broader downtrend.

The Fear & Greed Index currently registers around 70, indicating "Greed," suggesting bullish sentiment but cautioning against potential corrections.

Additionally, the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF has recorded consecutive days of net inflows, accumulating US$356 million, signaling robust institutional demand. Meanwhile, on-chain data reveals that whale-tier addresses (holding 10–10,000 BTC) have net-added approximately 83,000 BTC over the past 30 days, indicating continued accumulation by large holders.

Maintain a Cautiously Bullish Outlook, Focusing on Recent Range-Bound Trading_1

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin faced resistance near US$107,000 on Sunday, followed by a 2% decline the next day. As of Tuesday, Bitcoin is trading around US$103,500.

Momentum indicators suggest waning bullish strength, though further upside remains possible. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the 1D timeframe is at 67, trending downward after failing to breach the overbought threshold of 70, indicating weakening bullish momentum. A continued decline in the RSI, breaking below the neutral 50 level, could trigger a significant Bitcoin price correction, potentially retesting the US$100,000 psychological support.

However, a Bitcoin price recovery, with a close above the US$105,700 resistance level, could pave the way for a rally towards the all-time high of US$109,588, established on January 20.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 102550

Target Price: 106500

Stop Loss: 99500

Valid Until: May 28, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 103162, 100776, 99126

Resistance: 105022, 105689, 106496

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

The recent Pectra upgrade has enhanced transaction efficiency and scalability, yet it hasn't immediately impacted prices. Meanwhile, institutional ETH ETF applications and continued accumulation by whale addresses offer mid- to long-term support.

BUY ETH-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

2591.40

Entry Price

2785.00

2270.00

3136.84 +52.28 +1.69%

529.9

Pips

Profit

2270.00

2644.39

Exit Price

2591.40

Entry Price

2785.00

Fundamentals

Ethereum's price surged last week, fueled by increased inflows into staking protocols. This buying pressure drove ETH to its largest weekly gain since December 2020, reaching 40%.

The recent Pectra upgrade, the most significant update since the 2022 Merge, encompasses 11 improvement proposals, primarily enhancing transaction speeds and reducing costs. It also expands the single-node staking limit from 32 ETH to 2048 ETH, potentially attracting larger stakers.

The global crypto market sentiment, as measured by the Fear & Greed Index, currently indicates moderate "greed," suggesting potential short-term buying interest. Meanwhile, a divergence exists between retail and institutional investors, with institutions primarily hedging their positions through spot and futures markets.

Technical Analysis

Ethereum surged 40% last week, climbing from US$1,800 to approximately US$2,627, marking its largest weekly gain since December 2020. Following three consecutive days of gains, the second-largest cryptocurrency faced rejection near its 200-day SMA, with bears targeting the US$2,867 resistance level.

Currently trading around US$2,485, Ethereum is consolidating within a range established since the beginning of the year. The 4-hour technical analysis reveals a symmetrical triangle pattern, with a breakout above US$2,867 potentially signaling further upside. The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic Oscillator are in overbought territory, indicating strengthening bullish momentum.

Conversely, a breach below the US$2,275 short-term support level warrants caution for a potential correction. A break below the US$2,110 range would invalidate the bullish structure, potentially leading to a decline towards the 50-day SMA support.

Overall, it is recommended to accumulate positions near key support levels, with close attention to the breakout levels at US$2,867 and US$3,000.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 2360

Target Price: 2785

Stop Loss: 2270

Valid Until: May 28, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 2408, 2356, 2320

Resistance: 2627, 2729, 2867

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Commodity

Summary:

If prices manage to hold above this critical support and avoid breaking lower, there is a possibility of a rebound toward the upper boundary of the descending trendline.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3250.56

Entry Price

3370.00

3150.00

4340.13 +40.74 +0.95%

1005.6

Pips

Loss

3150.00

3149.99

Exit Price

3250.56

Entry Price

3370.00

U.S. inflation appears to be cooling, as reflected in the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Both the headline and core CPI rose by 0.2% in April, coming in below market expectations of a 0.3% monthly increase. On an annual basis, core inflation—which excludes food and energy—remained steady at 2.8%, showing no signs of acceleration.

This softer inflation print has once again shifted market attention to the Federal Reserve. While the Fed is unlikely to act immediately, the latest figures have fueled renewed speculation around a potential rate cut in the months ahead. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut at the June 18 policy meeting remains low at just 8.2%. However, expectations increase to 38.6% for July and surge to 77.1% for September, indicating that market participants anticipate easing to begin in the second half of the year.

Despite this, several voices within and outside the Fed have urged caution. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that even current levels of tariffs could continue to exert upward pressure on prices, according to a report by The New York Times. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank analysts noted that any softening in trade tensions with China is unlikely to prompt an aggressive shift in Fed policy.

Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler added to the cautious tone, stating that policymakers are finding it increasingly difficult to gauge the underlying strength of the U.S. economy. She cited abrupt shifts in trade policy and their ripple effects on both households and businesses—many of which accelerated imports earlier this year to get ahead of possible tariff changes.

On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump characterized recent trade talks with China in Switzerland as “very good,” suggesting that both sides are working toward a “complete reset” of their trade relationship. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who led the negotiations, mentioned that “substantial progress” had been made. Markets are now assessing how new tariffs might be balanced by exemptions currently under discussion.

On Monday, President Trump also addressed trade relations with the European Union, stating that the U.S. holds a clear advantage in negotiations. “The EU is, in many ways, tougher than China. We’re just getting started with them. We hold all the cards. They’ve treated us very unfairly,” he said during a press event at the White House.

Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries are trading around 4.47%, with investors weighing stable CPI data against potential future rate cuts. These developments are also influencing broader market sentiment, particularly in safe-haven assets. Gold Eyes a Bounce from Key Technical Confluence_1

Gold Eyes a Bounce from Key Technical Confluence_1

Technical Analysis

Gold has recently found support near the 2,302 level—a zone where price has bounced three times previously. This area coincides with the 200-period moving average on the daily chart, and price is currently hovering just above it. The technical confluence here may act as a magnet for buyers, suggesting that this level could serve as a launching point for a potential bullish recovery.

If prices manage to hold above this critical support and avoid breaking lower, there is a possibility of a rebound toward the upper boundary of the descending trendline. This zone will be key in determining whether bullish momentum can be sustained. A failure to establish a new higher high in that region would suggest lingering bearish sentiment remains dominant.

Moreover, the RSI has dropped to the 32 level, approaching oversold territory. A subtle bullish divergence is forming, supported by an emerging ascending trendline on the RSI. This divergence, combined with proximity to the 200-period moving average and prior support, may strengthen the case for a recovery toward the 3,372 zone.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 3248

Target price: 3370

Stop loss: 3150

Validity: May 23, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

WTI crude oil prices surged toward $62 per barrel as the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day tariff truce, improving the global demand outlook.

BUY WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

62.492

Entry Price

66.000

60.000

56.978 -0.255 -0.45%

50.8

Pips

Profit

60.000

63.000

Exit Price

62.492

Entry Price

66.000

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures extended their winning streak into a fourth consecutive session on Tuesday, surging to just under the $62.00 per barrel mark on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The rally was powered by renewed optimism in global trade dynamics following a significant 90-day tariff ceasefire agreement between the United States and China — the world’s two largest economies.

The agreement, reached on Monday, saw both Washington and Beijing commit to temporarily reducing import duties, with the U.S. scaling back tariffs to 10% and China adjusting its own levies to 30%. This mutual de-escalation has ignited hopes of improved global trade flows, reinvigorated demand for energy commodities, and lifted market sentiment across risk-sensitive assets, including oil.

Crucially, Beijing remains the world's largest energy importer, and any signs of improved U.S.-China trade relations tend to have a disproportionately bullish impact on crude oil prices. The easing of tariff tensions reduces the threat of prolonged demand destruction, which had previously clouded the outlook for global economic growth and, by extension, energy consumption.

“The 90-day truce is a welcome breather for crude bulls,” said Martin Bellamy, senior commodities strategist at Astera Capital. “It provides a window of stability that had been missing for much of the year, especially as the broader macro backdrop has been strained by fears of stagflation and geopolitical turmoil.”

The positive momentum in oil was also fueled by diminishing market expectations for an interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting. Before the trade truce announcement, dovish sentiment had gripped the bond market, with traders pricing in a high likelihood of monetary easing to offset risks from slowing global trade. But that calculus shifted swiftly on Monday.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in July plunged to 38.6%, down sharply from 78% just one week earlier. Fed officials offered upbeat assessments in the wake of the U.S.-China détente, noting that the potential inflationary impact of tariffs might be lower than previously feared. However, they remained cautious, warning that longer-term inflation dynamics remain complex and unpredictable.

“The Fed appears to be in a wait-and-see mode now,” remarked Danielle Harper, U.S. macroeconomics lead at Frontier Global. “They’re not going to pull the trigger on rate cuts unless downside risks to growth re-emerge decisively. The oil market is responding accordingly — reduced rate-cut bets support the dollar, but the stronger demand outlook is still the dominant narrative.”

The next major catalyst for oil prices may come from the political front. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pressed for a face-to-face meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, proposing neutral ground in Turkey for Thursday’s high-stakes talks.

While the Kremlin has yet to confirm its participation, a potential diplomatic breakthrough could have broad implications for global energy markets. Although Russian oil exports have continued despite sanctions, any thawing of hostilities could ease concerns over global supply disruptions or retaliatory sanctions, which in turn could moderate recent price gains.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, WTI crude is showing strong bullish tendencies. Prices have reclaimed the key resistance level at $61.70, which is now acting as a short-term support zone. The recent price action suggests a continuation of a corrective bullish trend, reinforced by relative strength index (RSI) readings that have exited oversold territory and are now forming a positive divergence.

This technical setup points to further upside potential, especially if macro and geopolitical catalysts continue to align favorably. Traders will be closely watching for confirmation of a sustained breakout above $62.50 — a level that, if breached, could open the door to a test of the $66.00 zone in the coming sessions.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY WTI

ENTRY PRICE: 62.50

STOP LOSS: 60.00

TAKE PROFIT: 66.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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