A Bearish Turn May Be Brewing Near the 0.618 Fibonacci Level

Forex

Economic

Summary:

This area may act as a pivot point, and if sellers regain control, a pullback toward the next major support around 0.8103 could materialize.

SELL USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.81685

Entry Price

0.81050

0.82100

0.80398 -0.00057 -0.07%

41.5

Pips

Loss

0.81050

0.82100

Exit Price

0.81685

Entry Price

0.82100

Recent U.S. economic data revealed a mixed macroeconomic landscape. Retail sales in May declined by 0.9% month-over-month—the sharpest drop in four months—as consumer spending contracted amid growing uncertainty over new tariffs. However, the Retail Sales Control Group, which feeds directly into GDP calculations, defied expectations with a stronger-than-expected 0.4% increase, helping to cushion the overall picture. Meanwhile, U.S. industrial production fell by 0.2% in May, missing market expectations of a modest rise and exposing ongoing weaknesses in the manufacturing sector.

Adding to global market tension were comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who called on Iran to agree to an "unconditional surrender" and dismantle its nuclear program or face escalating consequences. Praising recent Israeli airstrikes as "excellent" and "highly successful," Trump warned that future operations could be "even more brutal," urging Tehran to "make a deal now" or face total defeat. Speaking earlier aboard Air Force One after the G7 summit, the president made clear he was not seeking a ceasefire, but rather a “real end” to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, adding: “They should’ve taken the deal... I’m not in the mood to negotiate.”

On the inflation front, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data for May pointed to continued disinflationary pressures. Headline PPI rose 2.6% year-over-year, in line with forecasts and slightly above April’s 2.5% print. However, core PPI—which excludes the more volatile food and energy components—edged down to 3.0% from 3.2%, reinforcing the view that underlying inflation is slowly retreating.

Meanwhile, data out of Switzerland continued to highlight subdued inflation dynamics. Producer and import prices fell by 0.7% year-over-year in May—deeper than April’s 0.5% decline—underscoring persistent disinflationary forces. On a monthly basis, prices fell 0.5%, surprising markets by reversing the previous month’s 0.1% uptick. This added further weight to expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may opt for further policy easing in its upcoming meeting.

Reinforcing the dovish narrative, Switzerland’s KOF Economic Institute revised down its growth forecast for 2026, citing unpredictability in U.S. trade policy as a key headwind. The think tank now projects adjusted GDP growth of 1.5% in 2026—a 0.4-point downgrade—while leaving its 2025 outlook unchanged at 1.4%. KOF also anticipates a gradual rise in unemployment to a neutral 3% by the end of next year and foresees a slowdown in job creation due to mounting political uncertainty. Softer energy prices and the resilient Swiss franc (CHF) also prompted KOF to cut its inflation forecasts to 0.2% for 2025 and 0.5% for 2026. A Bearish Turn May Be Brewing Near the 0.618 Fibonacci Level_1

A Bearish Turn May Be Brewing Near the 0.618 Fibonacci Level_1

Technical Analysis

USD/CHF has extended its rally, climbing from the June 12 low of 0.8055 to test the 200-period moving average around 0.8170. This move has brought the pair into the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone—a key level that often signals potential exhaustion in short-term bullish momentum. This area may act as a pivot point, and if sellers regain control, a pullback toward the next major support around 0.8103 could materialize.

From a momentum perspective, the RSI has climbed to 68, nearing overbought territory. This reading could encourage bearish participants to test the resilience of current resistance. Should the 0.8170 level hold, we may see a downward reaction from this area. A break below the 100-period SMA, now located around 0.8129, could trigger a sharper bearish acceleration. However, if the bulls manage to decisively push above the current resistance, the rally could resume, extending the upside move from this critical zone.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.8170

Target price: 0.8105

Stop loss: 0.8210

Validity: Jun 26, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Adam

Cryptocurrency

Forex

Summary:

On June 17, 2025, the GBP/JPY pair continued its strong uptrend, reaching a multi-week high. This increase was supported by the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to keep interest rates on hold and expectations for the Bank of England's (BoE) monetary policy....

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

195.700

Entry Price

196.000

195.400

207.050 -0.050 -0.02%

30.0

Pips

Loss

195.400

195.399

Exit Price

195.700

Entry Price

196.000

Overview

On June 17, 2025, GBP/JPY rose to 196.85, marking a multi-week high. The rally was largely driven by the BoJ's decision to keep interest rates at 0.5% and its plan to slow down its purchases of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) starting in fiscal 2026.

The decision reflects the BoJ's cautious stance on monetary policy amid global uncertainty and concerns about the impact of the US-Japan trade war. Meanwhile, GBP is also supported by expectations that the BoE will keep interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting, although there may be adjustments in the near future.

Market psychology

The current market sentiment is bullish for GBP/JPY. The RSI (14) on the chart is currently at 56, indicating that the market is not overbought and there is still room for growth. However, investors should note that any signs of weakness from the UK or Japanese economies could impact this trend.

Technical analysis

On the chart, GBP/JPY is currently trading above its 50-period moving average, indicating a short-term uptrend. The next resistance level is located at 197.23, the May high.

If the price breaks above this level, the next target could be 198.06. However, if the price falls below the support level of 195.00, a correction signal towards 193.74 could appear.

Trading Recommendations

Entry: 195.7

Take Profit: 196

Stop Loss: 195.4

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Forex

Summary:

On June 17, 2025, the EUR/USD pair recorded a sharp decline, breaking the support level of 1.1550. This weakness was driven by expectations of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the economic situation in the eurozone....

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.15000

Entry Price

1.14500

1.15500

1.16538 +0.00112 +0.10%

32.1

Pips

Profit

1.14500

1.14679

Exit Price

1.15000

Entry Price

1.15500

Overview

On June 17, 2025, EUR/USD fell to 1.1530, breaking the key support level of 1.1550. This weakness was mainly driven by expectations that the Fed would maintain a steady interest rate policy at its upcoming meeting, while the European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates low. This created a difference in interest rates between the USD and EUR, increasing the attractiveness of the US dollar.

Market psychology

The current market sentiment shows caution and concerns about the global economic outlook. The RSI (14) on the 15-minute chart is currently at 36.18, indicating that the market is not overbought and may continue its downtrend. This reflects investors’ indecision in determining the next direction of the pair.

Technical analysis

EUR/USD Drops Sharply Below 1.1550: Will the Downtrend Continue?_1

On the 15-minute chart, EUR/USD is currently trading below the resistance level of 1.1550, indicating a short-term downtrend. The next support level is located at 1.1500. If the price breaks this level, the next target could be 1.1450. The RSI (14) indicator currently at 36.18 does not indicate oversold or overbought conditions, but if the indicator drops further, it could be a sign of a deeper correction.

Trading Recommendations

Entry: Open a sell order when price breaks the support level of 1.1500.

Take Profit: Set profit target at 1.1450.

Stop Loss: Place a stop loss above the 1.1550 resistance level to limit risk.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Economic

Forex

Summary:

On June 17, 2025, the USD/JPY pair recorded a strong increase, reaching a peak of 145.13, surpassing an important resistance level. This increase was supported by the decision of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to keep interest rates and expectations for the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed)...

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

145.400

Entry Price

146.200

144.000

155.447 +0.102 +0.07%

43.3

Pips

Profit

144.000

145.833

Exit Price

145.400

Entry Price

146.200

Overview

On June 17, 2025, USD/JPY rose to 145.13, marking a multi-week high. The rally was largely driven by the BoJ's decision to keep interest rates at 0.5% and its plan to slow down its purchases of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) starting in fiscal 2026.

The decision reflects the BoJ's cautious stance on monetary policy amid global uncertainties and concerns about the impact of the US-Japan trade war. The dollar was also supported by expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting, although there may be adjustments in the near future.

Market psychology

The current market sentiment is bullish for USD/JPY. The RSI (14) on the chart is currently at 56, indicating that the market is not overbought and there is still room for growth. However, investors should note that any signs of weakness from the US or Japanese economies could affect this trend.

Technical analysis

USD/JPY Continues Uptrend: Will the Uptrend Sustain?_1

On the chart, USD/JPY is trading above its 50-period moving average, indicating a short-term bullish bias. The next resistance level is located at 145.47, the May high. If the price breaks above this level, the next target could be 146.25. However, if the price breaks below the support level of 144.00, a correction towards 142.20 could be signaled.

Trading Recommendations

Entry: 145,4

Take Profit: 146,25.

Stop Loss: 144,00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Commodity

Summary:

On June 17, 2025, the XAUUSD gold market recorded a correction after failing to stay above the $3,440 resistance level. Factors influencing the correction included geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, along with expectations for the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy....

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3385.13

Entry Price

3430.00

3360.00

4207.85 +9.94 +0.24%

251.3

Pips

Loss

3360.00

Exit Price

3385.13

Entry Price

3430.00

Overview

As of the end of June 17, 2025, the price of gold XAUUSD fluctuated around $3,382.29, down slightly from the intraday high of $3,403.37. This correction came after the price of gold failed to sustain above the resistance level of $3,440, its highest level in the past two months.

Key drivers include geopolitical tensions and expectations for the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The conflict between Iran and Israel continues to escalate, with back-and-forth attacks and US President Donald Trump calling for an evacuation from Tehran, boosting demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.

This tension creates an environment of uncertainty, with investors seeking stability in assets, with gold being a top choice. In addition, expectations for Fed monetary policy also play a role. Although the Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady at its upcoming meetings, investors are still anticipating a rate cut by the end of 2025. This supports gold prices, as gold tends to appreciate when interest rates fall, reducing the opportunity cost of holding the metal.

Market psychology

The current market sentiment is cautious and indecisive. The RSI (14) on the 15-minute chart is currently at 41.29, indicating a lack of clear direction, with gold neither overbought nor oversold. This reflects a cautious market state, with investors unable to decide whether gold’s uptrend will continue or if it will undergo a sharp correction.

It is also worth noting that when gold prices reach short-term highs like they are now, concerns about a correction could lead investors to move away from gold and instead seek other assets such as government bonds, which are often seen as safe havens in times of uncertainty. Concerns about global politics and the economy have increased demand for defensive assets such as gold, but have also made investors cautious about continuing to buy.

Technical analysis

Gold Price XAUUSD Pauses Below $3,400: Will the Uptrend Continue?_1

Technical analysis shows that gold is currently trading below the resistance level of $3,412.62, a key level on the chart. If it fails to break above this level, the downtrend could continue with the next targets at $3,373.23 and $3,343.53 respectively.

The current RSI (14) at 41.29 does not indicate oversold or overbought, but if the indicator drops further, it could be a sign of a deeper correction.

The MACD is currently below the signal line, suggesting that the downtrend may remain in place in the short term. At the same time, the moving averages (MA50 and MA200) are also giving sell signals, supporting the forecast that gold will face a short-term correction before it can resume its uptrend.

The Bollinger Bands are currently tightening, indicating a lack of strong volatility, but a breakout into or out of this range could send gold prices moving in a clearer direction in the coming days.

Trading Recommendations

Entry: 3385

Take Profit: 3430

Stop Loss: 3360

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Eva Chen

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to hold interest rates steady in a unanimous 8-1 vote on Tuesday, aligning with market consensus. The BOJ opted to maintain its current pace of reduction until March 2026, followed by a gradual decrease in bond purchases, which met market expectations.

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

194.996

Entry Price

198.500

193.490

207.050 -0.050 -0.02%

224.9

Pips

Profit

193.490

197.245

Exit Price

194.996

Entry Price

198.500

Fundamentals

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided on Tuesday to maintain the short-term interest rate at 0.5% in a unanimous decision, while also maintaining its current bond reduction plan until March 2026.

In its statement, the BOJ lowered its growth outlook, noting that the Japanese economy "may slow down" in the short term as overseas economies slow and domestic corporate profits decline. Although the accommodative financial environment should provide some support, the central bank expects only a moderate recovery in the Japanese economy in the later stages as global economic growth resumes.

In terms of inflation, the impact of rising food and import prices "is expected to weaken," while the core CPI may remain "sluggish" due to the economic slowdown. However, the central bank expects inflation to gradually rebound over time as medium- and long-term inflation expectations rise and the "sense of labor shortage" intensifies with the economic recovery.

The BOJ acknowledged the "highly uncertain" outlook for the global trade and policy environment, warning of spillover effects on Japanese financial markets and inflation. The statement emphasized the need to closely monitor foreign exchange market dynamics and their broader implications.

Looking ahead, the central bank introduced a new bond-buying program for fiscal year 2026, planning to reduce purchases by 200 billion yen per month each quarter, bringing the total to 2 trillion yen per month by March 2027.

Market analysis suggests that a rate hike in October remains a possibility, despite recent market expectations pushing the next increase to early next year. Upcoming wage data will validate the robust wage increases achieved in the spring negotiations, while a trade agreement with the U.S. may offer greater clarity on future prospects.

With the market already pricing in a rate hike of just over 10 basis points for the remainder of the year, significant movements in the yen are anticipated later this year, although pinpointing the timing of a yen rebound in the near term is challenging. From a market positioning perspective, the most likely "reverse pain trade" scenario is further yen weakness.

Bank of Japan Has Maintained Its Current Policy, Expecting a Gradual Rebound in Inflation Following a Period of Short-term Weakness_1

Technical Analysis

Following the BOJ's monetary policy announcement on Tuesday, the GBPJPY extended its retracement from Monday's peak of 196.85. However, the GBPJPY has, thus far, maintained stability above the previous week's high of 196.00. A sustained long-term bullish outlook is anticipated, provided the 193.75 support level holds.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 195.00

Target Price: 198.50

Stop Loss: 193.49

Valid Until: July 2, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 195.53, 194.95, 194.66

Resistance: 196.68, 196.84, 197.06

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Eva Chen

Commodity

Middle East Situation

Summary:

Ongoing geopolitical tensions supported safe-haven assets, halting the previous day's retreat from a nearly two-month high. However, investors appeared hesitant to act, opting to await further clarity on the Federal Reserve's rate-cut trajectory before establishing new directional positions.

SELL XAUUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

3418.00

Entry Price

3287.00

3448.00

4207.85 +9.94 +0.24%

Pips

EXPIRED

3287.00

3342.99

Exit Price

3418.00

Entry Price

3448.00

Fundamentals

On Tuesday, the focus in the gold market will remain on the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Safe-haven buying continues to support gold prices due to the persistent uncertainty.

Furthermore, gold ETFs collectively increased their holdings by 136,032 ounces of gold in the most recent trading session. According to statistics, the net buying by ETFs this year has reached 6 million ounces. The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares, also recorded an inflow of US$285 million last Friday, the largest single-day inflow in several weeks. These factors continue to provide support for the upward movement of gold prices.

However, in the long term, the conflict between Iran and Israel is unlikely to boost gold prices. The gold market's reaction to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran remains very moderate. Gold prices have risen by less than 1% since Israel's initial attack.

We think that the market's reaction was primarily driven by speculative actors and algorithmic trading systems within the futures market, rather than by physical safe-haven demand. Furthermore, the elevated pre-conflict gold prices suggest limited potential for further algorithmic-driven increases, aligning with historical patterns where geopolitical events do not sustain long-term gold price appreciation.

Currently, investors appear hesitant, preferring to await further clarity on the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory before establishing new directional positions. Consequently, market attention will remain centered on the outcomes of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday, the agenda of which should provide fresh impetus for both the U.S. dollar and non-yielding gold.

Geopolitical Tensions Continue to Provide Support for the Gold Market, Although They Are Unlikely to Offer Sustained Rally_1

Technical Analysis

Following a brief test of US$3,450 on Monday, gold prices exhibited signs of waning upward momentum. This aligns with the retracement structure following the completion of a head and shoulders bottom pattern. We anticipate this retracement to be followed by another decline after a brief rally.

During Tuesday's European session, gold prices found support above US$3,370, subsequently breaching prior highs on the 5- and 15-minute technical charts, establishing a crucial foundation for a rebound. If prices do not retrace below the intraday low of US$3,374, a short-term bottoming structure will form, testing the midpoint of the significant correction at the US$3,420 range, followed by a further decline to test the support level near the US$3,335 range.

Conversely, a breach above US$3,445 by the bulls would invalidate the bearish forecast.