OPEC+ recently announced a modest production increase in November, which the market interprets as a signal from member countries to replenish market share and counteract weakening demand, thereby exerting medium-term downward pressure on crude oil prices.

However, short-term supply dynamics are characterized by counterbalancing factors: on one hand, increased production expectations from U.S. shale producers and OPEC+ suggest a more ample global supply in the coming months; on the other hand, ongoing attacks by Ukraine on Russian refineries and oil transportation infrastructure have been reported to potentially reduce Russian gasoline and fuel exports by approximately 20%, causing localized and short-term upward pressure on refined product prices and providing support to crude oil prices. Overall, the tension between supply-side "production optimism" and "localized disruptions" increases price sensitivity to the events.

The latest data on inventory levels and demand dynamics further intensifies this divergence. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly report indicates a net increase in commercial crude oil inventories over the past week, totaling approximately 420 million barrels. Meanwhile, refinery utilization rates remain elevated at around 92%, suggesting that refining capacity remains robust, but the accelerated flow of products and crude oil in and out of storage points to heightened throughput. Additionally, market data and industry research highlight a week-on-week increase of approximately 3.7 to 4.0 million barrels in U.S. commercial inventories, signaling a short-term oversupply that exerts downward pressure on oil prices.

In the 1D timeframe, WTI crude oil experienced a breakdown and subsequent decline on October 2nd. Recently, it has initiated a technical correction and rebound; however, yesterday's rebound was rejected at the 20-day SMA, resulting in a bearish close. This indicates that in the short term, WTI is likely to continue its downward trend, with the primary support level at 60.00. A breach below this threshold could potentially open the path toward a further decline to 56.00.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 60.80

Target Price: 56.50

Stop Loss: 62.60

Valid Until: October 24, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 60.00, 56.00

Resistance: 61.50, 62.48

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently met with U.S. President Donald Trump to discuss countermeasures against U.S. tariffs on goods such as steel and automobiles. During the meeting, Carney raised the possibility of reviving the Keystone XL oil pipeline project. This approximately 1,900-kilometer pipeline is designed to transport 830,000 barrels of crude oil daily from Alberta’s oil sands region in Canada to the Cushing storage hub in Oklahoma, and then on to refineries along the Gulf Coast. Since its proposal in 2008, the project has faced numerous setbacks: it was rejected during the Obama administration due to strong opposition from environmental groups and Indigenous communities, was revived under Trump, but was halted again in 2021 when the Biden administration revoked key permits. Although Trump expressed support for restarting the project in February this year and promised swift approval, the project operator, TC Energy, had already spun off its pipeline business into a separate entity, South Bow, last October after suffering significant losses. South Bow has since explicitly stated that it has abandoned the Keystone XL project. Currently, Canada has not confirmed whether any companies are willing to take over the construction, and negotiations remain in the early stages, with further discussions to evaluate the proposal. On Thursday, the Canadian dollar, which is tied to commodities, faced challenges due to falling crude oil prices, with the currency pair rising by about 0.5%. As the largest oil exporter to the U.S., Canada is seeing downward pressure on the Canadian dollar amid falling oil prices. Additionally, the recent agreement between Israel and Hamas on the first phase of a ceasefire plan has reduced geopolitical risk premiums, further weighing on oil prices.

The outlook for Federal Reserve policy is broadly shrouded in dovish sentiment, which could pose challenges for the U.S. dollar. On Friday, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said that inflation levels are far below her previous concerns, and the Fed is expected to further reduce risk management measures. New York Federal Reserve President John Williams stated that, given the risks of a slowdown in the labor market, he supports another rate cut by the Fed this year. He expects that if inflation edges back up to around 3% and the unemployment rate rises moderately, the policy rate will adjust along the intended path. Williams emphasized that the Fed needs to strike a balance between curbing inflation and supporting the job market, noting that Trump's trade tariffs have a limited impact on inflation, raising it by only about 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr took a more cautious stance, warning of simultaneous risks of rising inflation and a weakening labor market, and stressing the need to avoid overly rapid rate cuts. He predicted that the core PCE inflation rate could exceed 3% by the end of the year, with overall inflation not returning to the 2% target until the end of 2027.

Based on the 4H chart, the Bollinger Bands and moving averages are diverging upwards. The price has broken above the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle with a strong bullish candlestick, and the MACD bullish momentum expanded again, indicating a short-term uptrend. The RSI reading of 66 suggests strong bullish sentiment in the market. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands are expanding upward in the weekly chart, with moving averages poised to form a golden cross. The price is fluctuating near the Bollinger Upper Band. After forming a golden cross, the MACD line and the signal line are expected to return above the zero axis. The RSI reading is 58, with lows gradually rising, suggesting a high likelihood of further upside toward the 1.41–1.44 range. Buying at lows is recommended.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.4024

Target price: 1.44

Stop loss: 1.38

Support: 1.378/1.37/1.357

Resistance: 1.4/1.401/1.44

EUR/CAD reached a high of 1.6404 on October 3, 2025, marking its highest level in 2025. However, since then, the pair has declined, with the latest close on October 9 at 1.6213. This represents a 1.17% decrease from the peak. The Canadian dollar has shown strength recently, potentially due to rising oil prices and expectations of hawkish monetary policy from the Bank of Canada.

Sentiment towards EUR/CAD is currently cautious. The recent decline in the pair suggests that traders are becoming more risk-averse, possibly due to concerns over the Eurozone's economic outlook and the Canadian dollar's resilience. The market is closely monitoring upcoming economic data releases and central bank statements for further direction.

Support Levels: The immediate support level is at 1.6200, followed by 1.6100.

Resistance Levels: The nearest resistance is at 1.6300, with a stronger resistance at 1.6400.

Moving Averages: The price is currently below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish trend.

RSI: The Relative Strength Index is approaching 30, suggesting that the pair is nearing oversold conditions but still has room to decline.

Entry: Consider entering a short position if EUR/CAD breaks below the 1.6200 support level, with confirmation from technical indicators.

Take Profit: 1.6100

Stop Loss: Place a stop loss above the 1.6300 resistance level to manage risk.

Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $125,449.77 on October 5, 2025, driven by increasing investor confidence and growing interest in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, as of October 9, 2025, BTC has retraced to $120,536, reflecting a 2.42% decline from the previous close. This pullback is attributed to profit-taking by investors and a strengthening U.S. dollar, which rose about 1% over the week against a basket of currencies.

Sentiment towards Bitcoin is currently cautious. While the long-term outlook remains positive due to macroeconomic uncertainties and institutional adoption, the short-term technical indicators suggest a potential for a pullback. Traders are advised to monitor key support levels and be prepared for potential retracements before considering further long positions.

Bollinger Bands: On the M15 chart, BTC is trading near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating potential oversold conditions. A break below the lower band could signal a continuation of the bearish trend.

Ichimoku: The price is below the Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen, suggesting a bearish trend. The cloud ahead is red, reinforcing the negative outlook.

Stochastic: The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region, indicating potential for a short-term bounce. However, a bearish crossover would confirm the continuation of the downtrend.

Entry: Consider entering a short position if BTC breaks below the $119,000 support level, with confirmation from technical indicators.

Take Profit: $116,000

SL: $123,200

Japan’s next Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may have unintentionally prompted the Bank of Japan to raise rates as early as this month. Her election gave the market the impression that she would not want the BOJ to take action, which pushed the yen lower. The yen’s depreciation, which increases import costs, is exacerbating inflationary pressures. This not only presents upside price risks for the BOJ but could also complicate Takaichi’s plans to ease the impact of the cost-of-living squeeze.

A weakening yen will be one of the first tests Takaichi will face once she takes office, along with her ability to form a stable coalition government. While she is known as a strong supporter of monetary easing, her stance could fuel inflation and increase voter dissatisfaction. If the yen continues to slide to around 160.00 and the BOJ maintains its rate stance, the Japanese Ministry of Finance may be forced to intervene to prevent further volatility.

Moreover, with expectations that rates will remain low for a prolonged period, the yen may continue to weaken, encouraging investors to use the yen as a financing currency for carry trades. A carry trade involves borrowing low-interest-rate currencies and investing in higher-yielding currencies.

With the yen weakening, under Takaichi’s leadership, the likelihood of a rate hike in October has increased. Before that, low volatility suggests that carry trades will continue to be popular. The yen is now the preferred financing tool for carry trades.

USDJPY is still in a rebound from 145.47, with the intraday trend biased to the upside. The 100% retracement level is at 153.71. If this level is sustained, it will pave the way for the 161.8% retracement level at 158.80. On the downside, a break below the minor support at 151.71 will turn the trend neutral and likely lead to a consolidation phase before another rally. From a larger timeframe perspective, the current development suggests that the corrective phase from the 2024 high of 161.94 has completed at 139.87, forming a three-wave structure. The larger upward trend that began from 102.58 (2021 low) may soon resume, potentially breaking the 161.94 high. On the downside, a break below the support at 145.47 will suppress the bullish view and extend the correction, leading to further declines.

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 149.00

Target Price: 155.00

Stop Loss: 145.70

Valid Until: October 24, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 149.50 / 147.82 / 146.58

Resistance Levels: 153.71 / 154.86 / 155.90

The Pound Sterling (GBP) extended its losing streak for the third consecutive trading session against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, weighed by a broad rebound in the greenback and persistent caution ahead of remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The GBP/USD pair fell toward the 1.3365 mark in early European trading, slipping to its weakest level in nearly two weeks, as investors adjusted positions following the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, rebounded firmly toward the two-month high of 99.00, reversing a mild correction that briefly pulled it down to around 98.70 earlier in the session. The index’s recovery underscores renewed demand for the dollar as investors continue to favor it amid mixed global growth signals and heightened uncertainty over central bank policy paths heading into the final quarter of the year.

The dollar’s strength comes despite the September FOMC minutes revealing a broadly dovish undertone. Policymakers appeared increasingly confident that inflationary pressures have continued to ease, while labor market conditions have softened enough to justify additional monetary easing later this year. The minutes stated that “upside risks to inflation have diminished or not increased,” suggesting that the Fed sees growing scope for rate cuts to support economic momentum.

Crucially, officials agreed that it would “likely be appropriate to ease policy further over the remainder of 2025,” reflecting the central bank’s evolving assessment that the disinflation process is advancing faster than initially anticipated. The market reaction, however, was nuanced — traders read the minutes as confirming expectations of two more 25-basis-point cuts before year-end, but they also viewed the Fed’s measured tone as a sign that policymakers remain cautious about overcommitting to an aggressive easing cycle.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the November policy meeting stands near 78.6%, with another cut largely priced in for December. This positioning suggests that while the Fed is moving toward policy normalization, investors still prefer the dollar for its relative yield advantage and its safe-haven appeal amid global political and economic uncertainty.

Market attention now shifts to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is scheduled to deliver remarks at the Community Bank Conference in Washington at 12:30 GMT. Investors will be parsing his speech for clues about how the ongoing US government shutdown might influence the Fed’s economic outlook and future policy decisions.

So far, Fed officials have largely downplayed the short-term economic impact of the shutdown, but extended disruption could weigh on government spending, data collection, and consumer confidence — complicating the central bank’s assessment of underlying economic trends. Powell’s tone will therefore be critical in determining whether the recent dollar strength can be sustained or if markets will begin pricing a faster pace of rate cuts into early 2026.

Meanwhile, Treasury yields have stabilized after retreating modestly earlier in the week, lending additional support to the dollar. The benchmark 10-year yield continues to hover around the 3.75% level, with investors balancing expectations of policy easing against concerns over fiscal uncertainty and the still-tight labor market.

For the Pound Sterling, the recent slide reflects more than just a stronger dollar — it highlights persistent investor skepticism over the UK’s economic resilience. Despite modestly improving business sentiment and recent relief in inflation readings, concerns about stagnant growth and elevated borrowing costs continue to undermine sterling’s appeal.

The Bank of England (BoE) has signaled that while it is nearing the end of its tightening cycle, it remains cautious about declaring victory over inflation. Markets currently expect the BoE to deliver one final rate cut in early 2026, though much will depend on how the UK’s labor market evolves and whether wage pressures ease meaningfully by year-end.

The UK economy remains in a fragile position, with consumer spending constrained by high interest rates and persistent fiscal challenges. Analysts note that without a clear rebound in productivity or investment, the pound could struggle to sustain upward momentum even if US monetary policy turns more accommodative in the coming months.

From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair remains entrenched in a short-term bearish trend. The pair briefly attempted a recovery during the previous session, retesting the 1.3415 resistance level, but failed to build sustained momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to show mildly positive signals as the pair attempts to offload oversold conditions; however, the broader bias remains to the downside.

Price action suggests that as long as GBP/USD remains below the 1.3415–1.3450 resistance zone, the path of least resistance points lower. A decisive break below 1.3350 could open the door toward the 1.3200 psychological level, where buyers may attempt to defend the pair. Conversely, a rebound above 1.3450 could signal the beginning of a short-term corrective phase toward 1.3520.

SELL GBPUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3340

STOP LOSS: 1.3440

TAKE PROFIT: 1.3200