Potential Shifts in Market Dynamics

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has significantly delayed its anticipated rate hike timeline, with some experts now projecting that the central bank may not increase rates until next year.

BUY USDJPY

EXP

EXPIRED

141.500

Entry Price

147.120

137.700

155.126 -0.219 -0.14%

Pips

EXPIRED

137.700

145.158

Exit Price

141.500

Entry Price

147.120

Fundamentals

The USDJPY pair traded below the 143.00 level on Wednesday, continuing its corrective decline from the highs reached over a week ago.

A recent survey of economists conducted by a leading financial news agency revealed that the BOJ is likely to maintain its key interest rate unchanged until at least June (a yen-negative development). While a marginal majority of respondents anticipate a 25-basis-point rate hike from the BOJ in the next quarter, this proportion has declined from the more than two-thirds of respondents who expected a rate increase in the previous month's survey.

Additionally, nearly 90% of respondents indicated that the risk of a recession in Japan remains very low. This reflects the consensus among economists that despite the disruptions caused by President Trump's unpredictable tariff actions, the BOJ's path toward policy normalization has not been derailed. Many central banks globally are currently cutting rates to support their economies and mitigate the impact of the ongoing trade tensions initiated by the United States.

Meanwhile, Nada Choueiri, Deputy Director of the Asia and Pacific Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), told Reuters that the heightened uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies has affected business confidence and economic outlooks, potentially leading the BOJ to delay further rate hikes.

She noted that many Japanese companies are currently hesitant to proceed with investment plans, opting to wait for greater clarity on global trade conditions. "This hesitation also delays investment decisions," Choueiri said, adding that downside risks to economic growth and inflation are increasing.

She stated, "We do see that if our baseline scenario materializes, the BOJ's rate hike will be postponed."

Choueiri also commented on the recent appreciation of the yen, reaffirming its status as a "safe-haven currency" and noting that the yen is supported by the country's economic stability and predictability.

Technical Analysis

After falling to the September low of 139.88, USDJPY climbed to a high of 143.56 on Wednesday.

The USDJPY pair has formed two robust bullish patterns at the bottom of its recent plunge. Coupled with the recovery of technical indicators from oversold levels, this suggests that the asset may continue to rise in the short term. However, as long as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 158.86 to 139.87 range (147.12) holds as resistance, the overall risk remains skewed to the downside. On the downside, a confirmed break below 139.26 would have a more significant bearish impact on the market.

In a downside scenario, if the current selling pressure persists, attention will shift back to the psychological level of 140.00 and the support at 139.30. The resistance zone around 138.00 may keep sellers on guard, slowing the momentum towards the 134.65-135.00 area.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 141.50

Target Price: 147.12

Stop Loss: 137.70

Valid Until: May 9, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 142.17/141.15/139.92

Resistance: 143.57/144.24/145.72

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Stocks

Economic

Summary:

US President Donald Trump acknowledged on Wednesday the stance previously hinted at by Treasury Secretary Bessent on Tuesday. Given the significant market pressure resulting from tariffs on Chinese imports, the Trump administration is contemplating a reduction in tariffs on China.

BUY US30

Close Time

CLOSED

39684.97

Entry Price

40534.00

38400.00

48019.44 +19.54 +0.04%

5289.5

Pips

Profit

38400.00

40213.92

Exit Price

39684.97

Entry Price

40534.00

Fundamentals

US equities experienced a robust rally in early trading on Wednesday, although gains were partially retraced during the session. However, the market ultimately maintained a strong upward trajectory, with major indices closing significantly higher. The Nasdaq Composite Index was particularly strong.

The Nasdaq Composite Index initially surged by as much as 4.5% in early trading but subsequently retraced some gains. It ultimately closed higher by 407.63 points, or 2.5%, at 16,708 points. The S&P 500 Index also advanced by 88.10 points, or 1.7%, to 5,375 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose by 419 points, or 1.1%, to 39,606 points.

The initial rally was driven by President Trump's apparent softening stance toward Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. On Tuesday, Trump told reporters, "I have no intention of firing him." However, he reiterated his desire for Powell and the Fed to resume interest rate cuts.

Trump's recent attacks on Powell, including labeling him a "big loser" on Monday, had raised concerns on Wall Street about the Fed's independence.

Trump also indicated a willingness to adopt a less confrontational approach in trade negotiations with China. He projected that the current 145% tariffs on Chinese imports would "significantly decline."

Treasury Secretary Bessent further bolstered positive market sentiment by stating that there is "an opportunity for a significant agreement" between the US and China. However, investor concerns about recent market volatility—largely triggered by Trump's comments—led to a gradual waning of buying interest throughout the trading session.

This volatility has created a divergence between professional fund managers, who have turned more cautious, and retail investors, who have been actively buying stocks in anticipation of a rebound.

According to the latest client cash flow data released by Bank of America on April 22, institutional and hedge fund clients were net sellers of US stocks in the week ending last Friday, while retail investors were net buyers. This trend has been consistent over the past two weeks. In fact, retail investors have increased their US stock holdings for 19 consecutive weeks, marking the longest period of sustained buying at the start of a year since Bank of America began tracking such data in 2008.

However, Trump's policies have gradually eroded confidence in the US economy both on Wall Street and among international investors, despite the US economy's role as a major driver of global growth in recent years.

Market Bullish Despite Rising Uncertainties_1

Technical Analysis

As of Wednesday's close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average oscillated around the 39,600 level. Technical indicators displayed a mild bullish signal, although signs of overbought conditions and resistance from medium- and long-term moving averages warrant caution. In the short term, upward momentum is being capped by the Stochastic overbought condition, while the medium-term trend remains constrained by the 200-day moving average. On the chart, the index is consolidating in a symmetrical triangle pattern, which could lead to significant volatility upon breakout.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 39223

Target Price: 40534

Stop Loss: 38400

Valid Until: May 9, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 39259/38823/38419

Resistance: 39856/40405/40825

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices climb back above $3,300 as renewed safe-haven demand returns on the back of fading US-China trade optimism, weakening US economic data, and heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3339.99

Entry Price

3500.00

3240.00

4208.29 +10.38 +0.25%

12.7

Pips

Profit

3240.00

3341.26

Exit Price

3339.99

Entry Price

3500.00

The price of gold (XAU/USD) is regaining its luster, rallying above the $3,300 level in early European trading on Thursday, as investors recalibrate their expectations amid a complex mix of geopolitical tensions, dovish central bank bets, and a shaky US economic outlook. After a modest pullback from record highs earlier in the week, bullion has found its footing again, driven by renewed safe-haven flows following cautious comments from top US officials and fresh signs of a slowing US economy.

Gold’s renewed bullishness is underpinned by remarks from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who poured cold water on market hopes for an imminent breakthrough in US-China trade relations. On Wednesday, Bessent firmly denied rumors that the White House is considering unilateral tariff rollbacks on Chinese goods. Instead, he emphasized that any reductions would need to be mutual a position that suggests the trade deadlock may persist longer than markets previously expected. The resulting uncertainty has once again positioned gold as a prime hedge against geopolitical and economic instability.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book painted a less-than-rosy picture of the US economy. The report highlighted increasing concerns over President Trump’s erratic tariff strategies and their chilling effect on business sentiment. Moreover, it noted that consumer spending remains uneven, and labor markets long considered a pillar of US resilience are beginning to show signs of fatigue. Several Fed districts reported stagnating or even declining employment trends, bolstering the argument that the US economy may be approaching a period of deceleration.

Further stoking demand for gold is a weakening US Dollar, which has given up a portion of its recent gains. The greenback’s retreat follows growing speculation that the Fed could resume its rate-cutting cycle as early as June, with markets currently pricing in at least three cuts by year-end. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, increasing their relative attractiveness in investor portfolios.

Despite these supportive macro factors, gold’s ascent has not been without resistance. A generally positive tone in broader markets fueled in part by tentative signs of easing trade tensions and confidence in the Fed’s independence has capped bullion’s gains for now. Equities remain buoyant, reflecting investors’ hope that any downturn in US growth will be met with swift policy intervention.

But in our view, this optimism may be overstretched. With each new economic data release pointing to waning momentum, the question isn’t whether the Fed will cut rates but rather how aggressively it will act. Already, preliminary S&P Global PMI readings for April suggest uneven expansion across sectors. While manufacturing has managed to stay in growth territory, the services sector arguably the backbone of the post-pandemic recovery appears to be losing steam.

Against this backdrop, gold remains an attractive proposition. The ongoing ambiguity surrounding monetary policy and the fragility of trade negotiations continue to elevate downside risks for risk assets, while providing a tailwind for safe havens.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, gold’s rebound from the $3,290 support level appears to be gaining traction. This level has acted as a strong floor, reinforced by the 50-period EMA on the 4-hour chart, which provided a double layer of support and helped reverse the recent corrective dip. Adding further conviction to the bullish setup is a positive divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), signaling that downside momentum may have been exhausted.

Currently, immediate resistance is seen at $3,340 the mid-channel level on the 4-hour timeframe and a prior congestion zone. A successful break above this region could open the door to $3,360, with the next major psychological target at $3,380. Beyond that, if momentum persists and macro conditions align, $3,500 remains a potential medium-term target.

On the downside, the key area to watch is the $3,320–$3,330 support zone. A sustained drop below this range could bring $3,300 back into play and even invite further profit-taking. However, as long as prices remain above $3,320, the short-term bias remains bullish.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3340

STOP LOSS: 3240

TAKE PROFIT: 3500

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Silver prices slipped nearly 1% on Thursday, falling to around $33.30 per ounce as traders took profits following a sharp rally in the previous session.

BUY XAGUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

33.400

Entry Price

34.500

31.900

57.956 -0.361 -0.62%

150.0

Pips

Loss

31.900

31.897

Exit Price

33.400

Entry Price

34.500

Silver (XAG/USD) prices retreated on Thursday, dipping by close to 1% to trade around $33.30 per ounce in what appears to be a textbook technical correction following a strong 3.1% rally the previous day. That surge had propelled the metal to a three-week high, driven largely by safe-haven buying and renewed interest in precious metals amid global macroeconomic uncertainty. However, the latest downturn underscores silver’s notoriously volatile nature one that reflects its dual identity as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity.

While gold has traditionally served as the flagship safe-haven asset in times of uncertainty, silver often carves its own path, influenced not only by monetary policy and inflation expectations but also by industrial demand and broader economic sentiment. That divergence has become increasingly apparent over recent sessions, as gold prices maintained gains while silver corrected sharply, indicating investors may be recalibrating expectations amid evolving geopolitical dynamics.

At the center of this recalibration is the shifting narrative around US-China trade relations a key driver for industrial metals like silver, which are heavily reliant on the global manufacturing and electronics sectors. Earlier in the week, markets were buoyed by reports suggesting that the Trump administration is weighing potential tariff cuts as a prelude to restarting stalled negotiations with Beijing. That optimism, however, was quickly tempered when US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed reports of any imminent or unilateral tariff rollbacks.

Bessent clarified that while the White House remains open to talks, formal discussions have not yet begun, and no concrete steps have been taken toward easing existing duties. Adding to the uncertainty, Chinese officials have reportedly conditioned any renewed engagement on a clear pause in US threats another sign that trade rapprochement may remain elusive in the near term.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, silver’s latest decline appears to be a healthy pullback after an overextended rally. The price is now approaching a key support level at $32.95 a previously tested pullback area that could provide a springboard for renewed bullish momentum. This level also coincides with a near-term rising trendline and is supported by recent price action, reinforcing its significance.

A break below this level, however, could open the door to deeper losses, with $31.90 acting as the next major support. This area aligns with a multi-swing low and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally, making it a crucial inflection point. On the upside, resistance is eyed at $34.48, a level that capped price gains in late March and now stands as a key barrier to a sustained recovery.

Technical traders are watching these levels closely, with many eyeing $32.95 for potential long entries, placing stops at $31.90 and targeting the $34.50 region for profit-taking.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY SILVER

ENTYR PRICE: 33.40

STOP LOSS: 31.90

TAKE PROFIT: 34.50

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Crude oil prices slipped on Wednesday after reports revealed that OPEC+ is considering another production increase in June, reigniting supply concerns.

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

62.200

Entry Price

56.000

66.000

59.899 +0.090 +0.15%

52.4

Pips

Profit

56.000

61.676

Exit Price

62.200

Entry Price

66.000

Global crude oil prices extended their decline on Wednesday, weighed down by renewed concerns over a potential supply glut after sources indicated that OPEC+ is preparing to increase output again in June. This comes on the heels of last month’s controversial decision by the oil-producing alliance to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd), a move that caught many market participants off guard and contributed to oil’s fall to four-year lows in April.

Three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that several members of the OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, are preparing to propose another output hike when the group meets next month. While the discussions are still preliminary, the sentiment within the group appears to be shifting toward a more proactive stance on production, despite weakening global demand signals and price instability.

Brent crude futures for June delivery dropped 2% to $66.10 per barrel as of 15:05 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contracts for the same month fell 2.2% to settle at $62.30 per barrel. The market reaction was swift and pronounced, as traders reassessed supply-demand balances amid a fragile economic backdrop.

The renewed supply risks arrive at a time when the global oil market remains vulnerable to both macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade relationship continues to cloud demand forecasts. Although some progress has been made, recent rhetoric from both sides has dimmed hopes for a near-term resolution, and with global manufacturing and shipping activity already on the back foot, the appetite for oil may not rebound as quickly as expected.

Further compounding the bearish sentiment was data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), which showed a surprise build in US crude oil inventories. Stocks rose by 0.2 million barrels last week to reach a total of 443.1 million barrels, defying analyst expectations for a more substantial 0.6 million barrel increase.

While the build in crude stocks was modest, it underscored the prevailing theme of oversupply, particularly at a time when seasonal demand trends would typically encourage drawdowns. Gasoline inventories declined by 4.5 million barrels to 229.5 million barrels, reflecting some signs of healthy consumer activity. However, distillate fuel stocks also fell by 2.4 million barrels to 106.9 million barrels, a signal that industrial demand remains uneven and may not be robust enough to support sustained price recovery.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, crude oil has resumed a bearish stance after briefly consolidating near the crucial support zone at $61.50. Price action in recent sessions has shown clear signs of hesitation and indecision, leaning heavily on the support provided by the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA50). While this level has thus far acted as a buffer against deeper losses, its resilience is increasingly under threat.

A rising wedge pattern a traditionally bearish formation has emerged on the short-term charts, indicating a potential breakdown scenario. This is being confirmed by negative divergences on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has failed to show any meaningful bullish momentum even during brief price rebounds. Should oil break decisively below $61.50, the next major support lies around the psychological $60.00 handle, with downside risks increasing significantly thereafter.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL WTI

ENTRY PRICE: 62.20

STOP LOSS: 66.00

TAKE PROFIT: 56.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Commodity

Forex

Summary:

This area may serve as a trigger for renewed bearish momentum, as price action has already shown signs of rejection near this level.

SELL AUDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.88305

Entry Price

0.85950

0.89900

0.91826 +0.00089 +0.10%

7.1

Pips

Profit

0.85950

0.88234

Exit Price

0.88305

Entry Price

0.89900

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains cautious in its policy stance, reflecting the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the country’s economic outlook. Minutes from the RBA’s meeting held March 31–April 1 show that while the upcoming May meeting could serve as a juncture for potential policy reassessment, no firm commitments have been made regarding future rate adjustments.

This measured approach stems from a combination of mixed economic signals. Although the unemployment rate edged up slightly to 4.1% in March—just shy of the 4.2% market forecast—the employment change came in at 32.2K, missing the 40K estimate. These figures suggest a potential loss of momentum in the labor market. Additionally, the Westpac Leading Index, which gauges future economic activity, slowed to 0.6% in March from 0.9% in February, signaling subdued economic momentum.

The RBA emphasized that both upside and downside risks remain in play, reinforcing its data-driven and balanced outlook on inflation and growth.

In contrast, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has also adopted a more reserved tone, shifting from a previously “moderate” stance to a more cautious, wait-and-see approach. This change comes as Canadian policymakers navigate heightened uncertainty stemming from shifting U.S. trade policies under former President Donald Trump—factors that continue to cast a shadow over both global and domestic growth prospects.

In its latest Monetary Policy Report, the BoC outlined two divergent paths:

Optimistic scenario: If trade disputes ease and tariffs are rolled back through negotiations, Canada could see a temporary slowdown, with inflation dipping to 1.5% before returning to the 2% target.

Pessimistic scenario: A prolonged trade conflict could push Canada into recession territory, with inflation surging above 3% by mid-2026 before gradually stabilizing.

Acknowledging these risks, the BoC held its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.75%, halting a streak of seven consecutive rate cuts that began in June 2024. Governor Tiff Macklem emphasized the need for prudence, noting that the bank would scale back forward guidance until greater clarity emerges. He pointed to recent signs of slowing business investment and weakened household consumption—both likely exacerbated by ongoing U.S. retaliatory tariffs. Clear Divergence Signals Potential Downturn for AUDCAD_1

Clear Divergence Signals Potential Downturn for AUDCAD_1

Technical Analysis

The AUDCAD pair has staged a notable rebound from its recent low of 0.8438, climbing as high as 0.8902 in the previous session. The price came close to testing the 100-period moving average, currently positioned at 0.89094. This area may serve as a trigger for renewed bearish momentum, as price action has already shown signs of rejection near this level. If the moving average holds as resistance, a fresh downside move could unfold.

A key technical signal reinforcing this bearish outlook is the presence of negative RSI divergence. While price failed to surpass its previous swing high, the RSI has risen to a new local peak—signaling waning bullish momentum. This type of divergence, especially when it occurs near a key resistance level, often precedes a pullback or trend reversal.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.8830

Target price: 0.8595

Stop loss: 0.8990

Validity: May 02, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices saw a dramatic reversal, plunging over 5% after hitting a historic high of $3,500, as market sentiment pivoted sharply following U.S. President Donald Trump’s unexpected dovish tone on tariffs and the Federal Reserve.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3280.00

Entry Price

3170.00

3350.00

4208.29 +10.38 +0.25%

700.0

Pips

Loss

3170.00

3350.01

Exit Price

3280.00

Entry Price

3350.00

Gold (XAU/USD), the quintessential safe-haven asset, has suffered a significant sell-off after reaching a new all-time high of $3,500 earlier this week. By Wednesday afternoon, the yellow metal had tumbled more than 5%, falling to around $3,322, with momentum suggesting more downside potential. This sharp reversal comes in the wake of surprising political and economic comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that have dramatically shifted investor sentiment across global markets.

On Tuesday, gold basked in the glow of geopolitical uncertainty and persistent fears of a slowing global economy, bolstered by central banks' aggressive buying and rising investor demand for safe-haven assets. But in a stunning about-face, President Trump appeared to flip the narrative entirely.

Speaking late Tuesday, Trump reversed his earlier combative stance toward both China and the Federal Reserve. In a series of statements reported by Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal, the President confirmed that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell would remain in his post—putting to bed lingering speculation about Powell's job security. Just months ago, Trump was openly criticizing Powell for not cutting interest rates aggressively enough.

More strikingly, Trump extended an olive branch to Beijing, stating that he would be “very nice” in future trade talks and that any finalized tariff regime would be significantly lower than the previously floated 145%. This signal of possible de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions ignited risk appetite across the board, sending equities and U.S. Treasury yields higher and relegating gold to the sidelines.

This sudden shift in political rhetoric has caught markets off guard. Investors, previously positioned defensively amid expectations of prolonged monetary easing and trade conflict, are now unwinding those trades. The result has been a robust rally in equities and fixed income, while safe-haven plays like gold have been punished.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk added a quirky subplot to the mix, announcing that he will reduce his role at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a move that markets largely shrugged off but added to the flavor of a day defined by political oddities and policy surprises.

Despite the sharp drop, the broader outlook for gold may still be constructive over the long term. Renowned hedge-fund billionaire John Paulson told Reuters that central banks are expected to continue buying gold to diversify away from fiat currencies amid ongoing political and economic uncertainty.

“Even with this sell-off, gold remains a key strategic hedge,” Paulson said. “The geopolitical landscape is still unstable, and inflation pressures haven’t vanished.”

Bloomberg reports that many investors continue to view the dip as a tactical pullback rather than a structural shift. Gold has underperformed relative to Bitcoin in recent sessions, but many analysts expect the metal’s long-standing reputation for safety to sustain demand over time, particularly if political rhetoric proves unreliable or transient.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, gold’s current price action suggests that the correction is far from over. After reaching the $3,500 milestone, momentum faded quickly, giving way to heavy selling that sliced through key support levels at $3,400 and $3,300, with prices briefly dipping to a session low of $3,290.

Wednesday’s candlestick a large bearish body signals ongoing downside pressure. The failure to hold above $3,300 underscores the fragility of the recent rally, and the chart now paints a picture of a market under siege from profit-taking and shifting macro sentiment.

Short-term traders are eyeing resistance at the $3,320–$3,330 zone, while support lies in the $3,245–$3,170 region. For now, a strategy of “shorting the rallies” seems prudent, with a close watch on any signals of renewed geopolitical tension or Fed dovishness that could reignite demand.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3280

STOP LOSS: 3350

TAKE PROFIT: 3170

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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