Australian Dollar Slips Below 0.6500 as Traders Favor US Dollar Ahead of Fed and Geopolitical Risks

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Australian Dollar slipped below 0.6500 against the US Dollar on Monday as investors favored the Greenback ahead of high-level geopolitical talks in Washington and a busy week of Fed-related events.

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.64600

Entry Price

0.64200

0.65100

0.66520 -0.00118 -0.18%

17.4

Pips

Profit

0.64200

0.64426

Exit Price

0.64600

Entry Price

0.65100

The Australian Dollar began the week on a softer note, losing ground against the US Dollar in Monday’s New York session as risk appetite remained subdued and investors flocked toward the safety of the Greenback. The AUD/USD pair slipped beneath the psychologically significant 0.6500 mark, reflecting a combination of firmer Treasury yields, caution over ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, and growing speculation about Federal Reserve policy shifts.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the Greenback against a basket of major currencies, held near 98.14 after a modest recovery from last week’s near two-week lows. Traders are maintaining a defensive stance as tensions escalate, particularly with global leaders gathered in Washington for a high-stakes summit on Ukraine. Still, the DXY’s upside appears constrained, with markets nearly convinced the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, an event that could temper the Dollar’s longer-term appeal.

Markets turned their attention to Washington on Monday, where US President Donald Trump hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House. The talks, which also included UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, represent one of the most significant attempts this year to coordinate Western strategy on the Ukraine conflict.

The summit follows last Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, which ended with no breakthrough but signaled a shift in tone. While the anticipated ceasefire deal failed to materialize, both leaders agreed to work toward a broader security framework. Reports suggest the plan could encompass multilateral security guarantees, arms-control mechanisms, and international oversight—a step many see as more durable than previous piecemeal attempts at ceasefire agreements.

For investors, this pivot from short-term truce talks toward a long-term framework may reduce headline volatility in the months ahead, but the near-term uncertainty continues to weigh on risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian Dollar.

On the domestic front, the AUD has little momentum to draw upon. Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) trimmed its benchmark cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60%. The decision, framed against slowing productivity growth and weak household consumption trends, reinforced the view that Australia’s economy is struggling to generate robust momentum. The RBA’s revised GDP projections further dampened sentiment, with the central bank openly leaving the door ajar for additional easing if inflationary pressures continue to ease.

Looking ahead, local data could provide fresh clues on household sentiment. Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence Index, due Tuesday at 06:00 GMT, will offer investors an early read on whether the RBA’s rate cuts are providing relief to consumers or deepening concerns over slowing growth.

Global markets, however, are likely to be dominated by developments in the United States. Investors will dissect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes on Wednesday for insights into policymakers’ internal debates over the scale and timing of future rate cuts. The week’s marquee event arrives Friday, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell addresses the Jackson Hole Symposium—a stage historically used to signal policy pivots. Powell’s comments will be scrutinized for clues on the inflation outlook and whether the September rate cut is effectively locked in.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, AUD/USD has completed a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, confirmed with a decisive neckline break in Monday’s session. The pair’s drop below 0.6500 suggests that momentum remains firmly to the downside. Analysts note that a retest of the neckline could provide short-selling opportunities, with the next key support zone seen in the 0.6425–0.6420 range. A sustained move below this area could open the door toward deeper losses, while only a strong rebound above 0.6550 would begin to ease the bearish technical bias.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL AUDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6460

STOP LOSS: 0.6510

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6420

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Summary:

Following a decline of over 1% in the previous session, WTI crude oil prices remained subdued on Tuesday, trading around US$61.89 per barrel during European trading hours. The easing of regional tensions, attributed to robust security guarantees provided to Ukraine by U.S. and European officials, contributed to the downward pressure on crude oil prices.

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

62.037

Entry Price

58.380

63.900

57.233 -0.408 -0.71%

186.3

Pips

Loss

58.380

63.909

Exit Price

62.037

Entry Price

63.900

Fundamentals

WTI crude oil prices remained subdued on Tuesday, trading at approximately US$61.89 per barrel during European trading hours. U.S. and European officials are poised to furnish Ukraine with robust security guarantees, potentially paving the way for a historic summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. These security assurances primarily involve a comprehensive enhancement of Ukraine's military capabilities, without limitations, such as restrictions on troop size. The easing of geopolitical tensions contributed to the decline in crude oil prices.

Beyond the Ukrainian crisis, subdued oil demand persists. Ample supply, a bleak demand outlook, and the energy transition have kept the bulls at bay. Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) indicates that net long positions in crude oil are at multi-year lows, unseen in at least a decade. The larger question is: what price level will balance production economics? Will Trump's relaxation of climate regulations and aggressive promotion of traditional industries lay the groundwork for decarbonization trends? Time will tell.

Finally, in the short term, market optimism regarding the Ukrainian situation has largely been priced in, reducing downside potential, while any disappointment could trigger a significant oil price rebound. If negotiations progress, oil prices may stabilize around US$60.00 per barrel.

Bears Take the Lead as Easing Tensions in Ukraine Weigh on Oil Prices_1

Technical Analysis

WTI crude is currently testing a key resistance level within an established downward channel pattern, with price encountering selling pressure near a Fibonacci retracement level that coincides with the channel's upper boundary.

The energy commodity has been consolidating within this bearish formation for several sessions, and the current resistance test may determine whether the downtrend resumes or a more significant correction unfolds.

The current price is trading below US$62.00, indicating the initial line of defense for the bears. If WTI crude oil can continue its upward movement, the next significant resistance level will be the 50% Fibonacci retracement near US$62.96, followed by the stronger 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at US$63.20.

If the rally fails to break through these retracements, it could trigger a resumption of the downtrend, with targets potentially at the bottom of the channel and the swing low of US$61.41. The lower boundary of the descending channel has provided support on multiple occasions, but sustained bearish pressure could eventually force a break below this critical technical bottom line.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 62.40

Target Price: 58.38

Stop Loss: 63.90

Valid Until: September 3, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 61.43, 61.34, 60.38

Resistance: 62.98, 63.24, 63.61

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The Canadian Dollar weakened against the US Dollar on Tuesday, with the USD/CAD pair climbing above 1.3830 after Canada’s July CPI data revealed persistent disinflation, raising expectations of a dovish Bank of Canada stance.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.38499

Entry Price

1.40000

1.37800

1.37700 0.00000 0.00%

12.4

Pips

Profit

1.37800

1.38623

Exit Price

1.38499

Entry Price

1.40000

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) faced renewed selling pressure against its US counterpart on Tuesday, with the USD/CAD exchange rate surging past the 1.3830 level in early North American trading. The catalyst for the Loonie’s decline was a softer-than-expected inflation report from Canada, which reinforced market speculation that the Bank of Canada (BoC) may adopt a more dovish monetary policy stance in the near term, potentially paving the way for additional rate cuts.

Statistics Canada reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July rose 1.7% year-over-year, aligning with market expectations but decelerating from June’s 1.9% reading. This marked the fourth consecutive month that headline inflation has lingered below the BoC’s 2% target midpoint, underscoring a sustained disinflationary trend that has unsettled investors betting on a robust Loonie. On a month-over-month basis, consumer prices ticked up by 0.3%, a slight improvement from June’s 0.1% but falling short of the 0.4% anticipated by economists.

More concerning for policymakers was the BoC’s preferred Core CPI measure, which strips out volatile components such as energy and food. Core CPI edged up by just 0.1% month-over-month, unchanged from the prior month and significantly below the 0.4% forecast. On an annual basis, Core CPI softened to 2.6% from 2.7% in June, signaling a broader cooling of underlying price pressures. These figures, combined with the headline CPI data, painted a picture of an economy grappling with weakening inflationary momentum, a dynamic that has fueled expectations of monetary easing.

The inflation report triggered an immediate market response, with the Canadian Dollar weakening across the board. The USD/CAD pair, which tracks the exchange rate between the US and Canadian dollars, climbed steadily, reflecting the Loonie’s vulnerability. According to pricing in the Canadian swap market, the probability of a BoC rate cut at its September 17 meeting rose to 37% from 31% prior to the data release. While this remains below a coin toss, the uptick suggests growing confidence among traders that the central bank may have room to ease policy if disinflation persists.

However, economists warn that the BoC is unlikely to make knee-jerk decisions based solely on July’s inflation figures. Derek Holt, chief economist at Scotiabank, emphasized that the central bank’s path forward will depend on a broader set of economic indicators, with two additional CPI reports due before the September decision. “The BoC is navigating a complex landscape,” Holt said in a note to clients. “While disinflation is evident, structural forces such as sticky service prices, broadening pricing momentum, and tariff-related effects from global trade tensions could keep inflationary pressures alive.”

Holt pointed out that while core inflation measures exclude direct tariff impacts, secondary effects—such as pass-through costs from supply chain disruptions—could complicate the BoC’s calculus. Canada’s recent retaliatory tariffs, alongside global trade frictions, have introduced additional uncertainty, potentially offsetting some of the disinflationary trends seen in the data.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD pair appears poised for further gains. The pair settled higher in its latest intraday session, maintaining its dominant short-term bullish trend. Trading above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), USD/CAD has found support along a minor bullish bias line, bolstered by positive signals from the Relative Strength Index (RSI). After a brief period of sideways consolidation, the pair retested a key horizontal support level at 1.38022, where it staged a bullish rebound.

We expect the USD/CAD to continue its upward trajectory, with the pair likely to target higher resistance levels in the near term.The technical setup remains constructive for bulls.The combination of a supportive trendline, positive RSI momentum, and the pair’s ability to hold above key support suggests further upside potential.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDCAD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3850

STOP LOSS: 1.3780

TAKE PROFIT: 1.4000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Stocks

Summary:

Following several weeks of gains, U.S. stocks exhibited weakness during Monday's trading session. Stock valuations have reached historic highs, prompting investors to reduce their positions to manage risk ahead of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

SELL US30

Close Time

CLOSED

45146.92

Entry Price

44000.00

45580.00

48571.90 -263.55 -0.54%

4330.8

Pips

Loss

44000.00

45580.97

Exit Price

45146.92

Entry Price

45580.00

Fundamentals

Following several weeks of gains, the stock market exhibited a lack of direction during Monday's trading session. Major indices fluctuated near the flatline throughout the day, ultimately closing with minimal change.

The Nasdaq Composite, with a significant technology sector weighting, increased by 6.80 points, a gain of less than one-tenth of a percent, to 21,629. The S&P 500 declined by 0.65 points, a decrease of less than one-tenth of a percent, to 6,449. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 34.30 points, also a drop of less than one-tenth of a percent, to 44,911.

Amidst the volatility on Wall Street, investors were closely monitoring the meeting between U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, along with other European leaders, at the White House.

Furthermore, investors are focused on the commentary from central bank officials at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium later this week.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is scheduled to speak at a symposium on Friday, and his remarks could influence the outlook for interest rates. Powell's speech in Jackson Hole may evoke unpleasant memories. In 2020, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell announced at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium that the Fed would adopt "average inflation targeting" to replace the traditional "2% symmetric inflation target." In 2022, he stated that the Federal Reserve would persist in curbing inflation by maintaining high interest rates, even if it caused pain to the U.S. businesses and consumers, which directly ended the then-heated bear market rally.

For stock investors, reducing some positions before the Jackson Hole conference may be a wise move. Stock valuations have risen to historical highs, and the consensus of the conference may make the stock market more sensitive to any disappointing signals.

Investors Are Advised to Reduce Positions with Caution as Market Focuses on Jackson Hole Conference_1

Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hovered near recent highs on Tuesday, failing to exhibit bullish continuation. However, if a bearish retracement occurs, we anticipate support to re-emerge at the 44,100 level. Alternatively, it may be prudent to maintain or reduce existing positions, pending either a breakout or a bearish pullback.

Regarding momentum, the Relative Strength Index is currently positioned near 63, indicating mildly overbought conditions and diminishing short-term upside momentum. While the MACD main line remains above the zero-axis, the convergence of the MACD line and signal line, coupled with the contraction of the histogram, suggests a potential consolidation or minor correction phase.

The 1D chart patterns of the past few trading days indicate increasing selling pressure, with long upper shadows suggesting a lack of bullish confidence around the 45,000 level.

Overall, the short-term trend remains bullish, but momentum is waning. Traders should be wary of a potential pullback after encountering resistance near 45,000. It is recommended to monitor the breakout of the 44,700–45,000 range. Confirmation of a breakout in either direction will present the next trading opportunity.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 45,100

Target Price: 44000

Stop Loss: 45580

Valid Until: September 3, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 44767, 44699, 44519

Resistance: 45083, 45162, 45280

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Gold (XAU/USD) trades steadily near $3,342, buoyed by a softer US dollar and lingering geopolitical uncertainty following inconclusive US-Ukraine summit talks.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3330.00

Entry Price

3300.00

3367.00

4299.39 +20.10 +0.47%

44.3

Pips

Profit

3300.00

3325.57

Exit Price

3330.00

Entry Price

3367.00

Gold prices exhibited resilience on Tuesday, recovering from an overnight dip as investors parsed the outcomes of a high-stakes White House summit involving US President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and key European leaders. The talks, aimed at addressing the ongoing war in Ukraine, offered faint hope of diplomatic progress but stopped short of delivering a concrete ceasefire agreement. This persistent geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin gold’s allure as a safe-haven asset, even as market participants brace for critical policy signals from the Federal Reserve’s upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium.

As of the European trading session, spot gold (XAU/USD) hovered around $3,342 per ounce, supported by a marginally weaker US dollar and a pause in the recent uptick in US Treasury yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY) softened slightly, providing a tailwind for the non-yielding precious metal, which often moves inversely to the greenback. Meanwhile, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields eased after three consecutive days of gains, alleviating some of the downward pressure on gold, which typically struggles in high-yield environments due to its lack of interest payments.

Monday’s summit, a rare convergence of Western leaders, was closely watched by markets for signs of de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While the discussions signaled a unified commitment to supporting Ukraine through military and economic aid, the absence of a breakthrough kept investors cautious. President Trump, who has positioned himself as a mediator, revealed prior conversations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and floated the idea of a trilateral summit involving himself, Zelenskyy, and Putin. “It would be two presidents, plus myself,” Trump remarked, hinting at early-stage preparations for such a meeting. European leaders, meanwhile, endorsed a “coalition of the willing” to oversee long-term security guarantees for Ukraine, though specifics remained vague.

The lack of immediate progress has left geopolitical risks elevated, reinforcing gold’s role as a hedge against uncertainty. “Gold continues to benefit from its safe-haven status,” said Sarah Lin, senior commodities analyst at Global Markets Insights. “While diplomatic efforts are encouraging, the absence of a clear resolution keeps investors leaning on assets like gold to navigate this volatile landscape.”

Beyond geopolitics, gold traders are turning their attention to the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium, scheduled for later this week. The event is widely expected to provide fresh clues about the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory, particularly the likelihood of an interest rate cut at its September meeting. Market pricing, as reflected in Fed funds futures, suggests a growing consensus for a 25-basis-point rate reduction, with some analysts even speculating on a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut if economic data softens further.

A dovish tilt from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could weaken the US dollar further and suppress Treasury yields, creating a favorable environment for gold. “Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which doesn’t generate yield,” noted Michael Carter, chief strategist at Pinnacle Wealth Advisors. “If Powell signals a clear pivot toward easing, we could see gold test new highs above $3,400 in the near term.”

Technical Analysis

Gold Faces Resistance but Retains Momentum From a technical perspective, gold’s price action reflects a tug-of-war between bullish momentum and lingering bearish pressures. XAU/USD recently expanded its gains, supported by positive signals from the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which moved away from oversold territory. This shift provided temporary momentum, allowing gold to test the upper boundary of a bearish correctional channel that has constrained its short-term trading.

However, the precious metal remains under pressure, trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), a key indicator of trend strength. This positioning underscores persistent selling pressure and warrants caution among traders. On Tuesday, gold reacted off a pullback resistance level at $3,342.80, a point that could trigger a retreat toward the downside. We identify a stop-loss level at $3,367.03, coinciding with a swing high resistance, while a take-profit target lies at $3,306.77, slightly above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and a key pullback support.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3,330

STOP LOSS: 3,367

TAKE PROFIT: 3,300

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Economic

Forex

Summary:

SELL GBPUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

1.35700

Entry Price

1.34700

1.36200

1.33707 -0.00148 -0.11%

Pips

EXPIRED

1.34700

1.35260

Exit Price

1.35700

Entry Price

1.36200

Fundamentals

Regarding the British pound, the UK's Q2 GDP report showed optimistic performance, which could complicate the Bank of England's further rate cut trajectory and potentially help limit the pound's depreciation. Over the three months ending in June, the UK's GDP growth slowed to 0.3%, down from 0.7% in the first quarter, but exceeded the forecasted 0.1% increase for the reporting period. The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report for July is scheduled for release later on Wednesday, becoming a focal point for market attention.

Following President Donald Trump's announcement of preparations for trilateral negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the U.S. dollar continued its upward trajectory. President Trump added that President Putin has agreed to consider security guarantees and indicated that discussions on potential territorial exchanges are necessary. He noted that a ceasefire has not yet been agreed upon and stated, "I am not sure if a ceasefire is necessary, but I welcome the idea." President Zelenskyy emphasized the importance of genuine peace and welcomed U.S. involvement in security arrangements. He also confirmed Ukraine's major arms procurement plans. Additionally, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio announced on Tuesday that he would collaborate with European allies and non-European partners to ensure Ukraine's security. However, the U.S. dollar may face headwinds as stronger-than-expected U.S. producer inflation and retail sales data sustain a dovish outlook for Federal Reserve policy. The CME FedWatch tool indicates an 84% market probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. Traders are awaiting the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium later this week, where Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech is expected to provide guidance on the Fed's September monetary policy outlook.

Technical Analysis

In the 4H timeframe, the GBPUSD is experiencing downward pressure after touching the upper Bollinger Band. The MACD histogram indicates diminishing bullish momentum as the price retraces from the upper band to the lower Bollinger Band. Currently, the price finds support at the lower Bollinger Band and rebounds, with the MACD signal lines converging near the zero-axis. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, SMAs are flattening, and the RSI is at 50, suggesting a potential trend reversal. If the rebound fails to break and sustain above the previous high of 1.36, a decline back to the 1.345-1.346 range is likely. In the 1W timeframe, the price has broken above the EMA12 and is currently retesting it. Holding above this level could lead to further gains toward 1.38 or even 1.40. Conversely, failure to maintain this support could result in a decline toward 1.31 or 1.30. After the recent MACD death cross, the MACD line and signal line are approaching the zero-axis, with the RSI at 58, not overbought, but with decreasing peaks, indicating a possible pullback. Overall, the correction appears incomplete. It is recommended to go short at the highs.

Breaking 1.35! Has the GBPUSD Trend Shifted?_1

Breaking 1.35! Has the GBPUSD Trend Shifted?_2

Trading Recommendation

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.357

Target Price: 1.347

Stop Loss: 1.362

Support: 1.345, 1.34, 1.337

Resistance: 1.36, 1.362, 1.378

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Forex

Summary:

Fundamentally, the direction is still dominated by the interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve. Technically, 148.00 is a key level for the battle between bulls and bears.

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

147.722

Entry Price

151.100

146.600

155.814 +0.255 +0.16%

112.2

Pips

Loss

146.600

Exit Price

147.722

Entry Price

151.100

Fundamentals

The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently fluctuating around the 147.50-148.00 range, with the market awaiting a series of key macroeconomic and political events to determine its short- to medium-term direction. The strength of the dollar remains driven by US Treasury yields and Fed statements. Recently, the 10-year US Treasury yield has remained at a relatively high level (around 4.3%), providing underlying support for the dollar and suppressing the immediate recovery of the yen. At the same time, the market is awaiting the upcoming Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Meeting, with investors generally pricing in expectations and awaiting clear statements from Federal Reserve officials on the interest rate.

In Japan, although inflation has risen from an extremely low base, it remains at a moderate level (with the recent annual CPI rate at approximately 3.3%), which means that the interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve remains the fundamental reason for pressure on the yen. In addition, the market continues to pay close attention to domestic politics and fiscal policy in Japan (including debates over the pace of interest rate hikes), and any clear signals of accelerated normalization would change the medium-term direction of the yen.

Technical Analysis

148 Emerges as a Key Level for the Battle Between Bulls and Bears_1

From the 4-hour chart, the USD/JPY has recently broken through the previous downtrend line and tested resistance at the level of 148.00. The short-term balance between the bulls and bears is mainly characterized by both range-bound movements and breakthroughs. If prices can sustain above 148.00 with an increase in trading volume and complete the pullback confirmation, it will technically open up the potential for an upward movement to 149.00 or even 150.00; conversely, if it fails to hold above 148.00 and falls below the key support levels of 147.50 and 146.73, it may revert to the previous low range and trigger a deeper correction.