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The personal income and spending data this week show that inflation remains in check, shed light on the staying power of the consumer and paint a more constructive backdrop for household finances moving forward. Real estate should be a beneficiary of lower interest rates as the Fed eases policy, yet housing activity remains slow.
This week: ISM Manufacturing (Tue.), ISM Services (Thu.), Employment (Fri.)
The Eurozone September manufacturing and services PMIs were disappointing, with output and orders both softening, although they also indicated an overall softening in price pressures. We expect Eurozone expansion to continue, but now expect a slower pace of recovery than previously. Elsewhere, last week was a busy week for international central banks. China, Sweden, Switzerland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Mexico all lowered interest rates, while Australia held monetary policy steady.
When the Fed cut the policy rate by 50 bps, it marked what should be the beginning of the end of the worst CRE downturn since the global financial crisis. Although there are no shortage of obstacles ahead for CRE, the gap between the amount of maturing debt in need of refinancing and the available capital should be reduced with lower rates, thus limiting the extent to which stress mounts further.
Topic of last Week: Reasons Not to Panic About Looming Port Strikes
Thousands of dockworkers are set to strike at East and Gulf coast U.S. ports this week if the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) cannot come to an agreement regarding wage negotiations. While work stoppages at these ports cannot be ruled out, and a prolonged worker stoppage could disrupt supply chains, our sense is that worries about major supply disruption are overstated.
The GBP/USD pair holds positive ground near 1.3385 during the early Asian session on Monday. Expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the less dovish stance of the Bank of England's (BoE) less dovish rate cut bets provide some support to the major pair. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman is scheduled to speak later on Monday.
US inflation has cooled to a pace nearer to the Fed's 2% target. The headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose by 2.2% year-over-year in August, compared to 2.5% in July, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed on Friday. This figure was softer than the estimations of 2.3%. The core PCE climbed 2.7% in August, in line with the consensus.
On a monthly basis, the PCE Price Index increased by 0.1% in the same report period. Interest rate futures contracts have priced in a nearly 54% chance of a half-point cut in November, versus a 46% possibility of a quarter-point cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
The upside of the Pound Sterling (GBP) is supported by the anticipation that the BoE rate-cutting cycle is likely to be slower than in the United States (US). This, in turn, acts as a tailwind for GBP/USD. Amid the lack of top-tier UK economic data released from the UK docket this week, the GBP will be influenced by market expectations for the BoE monetary policy action for the remainder of the year.
The Canadian economy grew by 0.2% month-on-month (m/m) in July after June’s flat reading. This print landed ahead of Statistics Canada’s advanced guidance and consensus expectations. Early guidance from Statistics Canada points to no growth in August.
May’s reading was broad-based, with output expanding in 13 of 20 industries. Growth in services-producing industries (0.2% m/m) advanced at a slightly faster pace than in goods-producing industries (0.1% m/m).
On a weighted basis, the retail trade sector contributed most to the overall gain in July’s GDP, and was up for a second consecutive month (+1.0% m/m). Elsewhere on the services side, gains in the finance and insurance industry (+0.5% m/m) and the public administration sector (+0.4% m/m) were offset partially by a drag in the transportation sector (-0.4% m/m) that were impacted by wildfires.
On the goods side, utilities (+1.3% m/m) did most of the heavy lifting on the back of increased demand for electricity. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector reversed some of last month’s slide and the construction sector slumped for a third straight month, down 0.4% m/m.
Behind the advanced reading of stalled growth in August is an increase in oil & gas and public sector activity offset by pullbacks in the manufacturing and transportation & warehousing sectors.
GDP data for July came in stronger than expectations, but the momentum should be short-lived. With the current guidance for flat industry-GDP growth next month, third quarter GDP is tracking just north of 1.0% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) annualized, significantly below the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) 2.8% forecast, but broadly in line with our recent forecast update.
The BoC next rate decision is in late October and more cuts are certainly on the table. The BoC has shifted their tone as of late, putting more emphasis on their fears around a weakening economy. For what it’s worth, we don’t think the data tips the scales any more-or-less in favour of a potential 50 basis point (bps) interest rate cut, which would follow the recent move from the Federal Reserve. Instead, more emphasis will be placed on upcoming labour market data as well as inflation data, where the Bank will be looking for signs that price growth can remain durably at 2%.
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