Why OPEC+ Isn't Betting on a Fast Venezuelan Oil Revival

OPEC+ is adopting a cautious "wait-and-see" approach as the United States encourages oil companies to re-engage with Venezuela, a member of the producer group. While U.S. President Donald Trump met with nearly 20 oil executives on January 9 to persuade them back into the country, sources within OPEC+ suggest it's far too early to assess the market impact.

Officials believe the situation remains highly fluid, stating that "a lot of dust still needs to settle" before any meaningful conclusions can be drawn about a potential revival of Venezuelan oil production.

A Long and Capital-Intensive Road to Recovery

OPEC+ officials are downplaying the likelihood of a rapid surge in Venezuelan oil output. They point to significant hurdles that U.S. oil companies would face, including strict governance constraints and intense scrutiny from boards and shareholders.

Rebuilding Venezuela's battered oil sector is seen as a long-term, capital-intensive project. It would require stable and consistent policies that extend well beyond the tenure of the current U.S. administration, a factor that makes immediate, large-scale investment unlikely.

"Uninvestible": Oil Majors Demand Concrete Guarantees

This skepticism is shared by the oil companies themselves. During the White House meeting, ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods reportedly described the existing legal and commercial frameworks in Venezuela as "uninvestible."

U.S. firms remain wary after having their assets expropriated nearly two decades ago. Before committing capital, executives are seeking durable reforms and concrete security guarantees. President Trump has offered "total safety, total security" for companies operating in the country but has not elaborated on how these promises would be enforced.

Modest Production Gains on the Horizon

Despite the major obstacles, some near-term production gains are considered possible. Executives from companies already operating in Venezuela, such as Chevron and Spain's Repsol, have presented estimates suggesting a combined output increase of around 300,000 barrels per day (b/d) over the next 18 to 36 months.

Sanctions, Volatility, and Broader Market Strategy

For years, OPEC+ officials have privately argued that sanctions on oil-producing nations reduce market visibility and increase price volatility. An orderly return of investment to Venezuela could eventually improve transparency around global supply prospects, even if significant output increases take years to materialize.

This specific situation unfolds as OPEC+ navigates its broader production strategy. The group raised output for the first time in three years in 2025, with production climbing by an average of 1.45 million b/d to 40.65 million b/d. Another increase is scheduled for this year if the group adheres to its current plans.