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SYMBOL
LAST
ASK
BID
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SPX
S&P 500 Index
6939.02
6939.02
6939.02
6964.08
6893.47
-29.99
-0.43%
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
48892.46
48892.46
48892.46
49047.68
48459.88
-179.09
-0.36%
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
23461.81
23461.81
23461.81
23662.25
23351.55
-223.30
-0.94%
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
96.990
97.070
96.990
96.990
96.150
+1.020
+ 1.06%
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.18491
1.18514
1.18491
1.19743
1.18491
-0.01211
-1.01%
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.36835
1.36880
1.36835
1.38142
1.36788
-0.01258
-0.91%
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
4894.49
4894.49
4894.49
5450.83
4682.14
-481.82
-8.96%
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
65.427
65.456
65.427
65.832
63.409
+0.175
+ 0.27%
--

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[Bitcoin Briefly Dips Below $77,000, Ethereum Briefly Dips Below $2,300] February 1st, According To Htx Market Data, Bitcoin Briefly Dropped Below $77,000, Now Trading At $77,011, With A 24-Hour Decrease Of 5.32%.Ethereum Briefly Dropped Below $2,300, Now Trading At $2,301.07, With A 24-Hour Decrease Of 9.28%

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Qatar Prime Minister: Qatar To Introduce 10 Year Residency For Entrepreneurs And Senior Executives

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Governor: Russian Drone Strike On Bus In Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk Region Kills 12, Wounds 7

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Iran Warns Of Regional Conflict If US Attacks, Designates EU Armies 'Terrorists'

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U.S. House Speaker Boris Johnson: Trump May “readjust” His Immigration Policy

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[Speaker Of The U.S. House Of Representatives: Confident Of Sufficient Votes To End Partial Government Shutdown By Tuesday] February 1st, According To Nbc News, U.S. House Speaker Johnson Said He Is Confident That There Will Be Enough Votes By At Least Tuesday To End The Partial Government Shutdown

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Iranian Official Tells Reuters: Media Reports Of Plans For Revolutionary Guards To Hold Military Exercise In Strait Of Hormuz Are Wrong

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Ukraine's Defence Minister Says Kyiv And Spacex Working On System To Ensure Only Authorized Starlink Terminals Work In Ukraine

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Russian Security Committee's Vice Chairman Medvedev: Europe Has Failed To Defeat Russia In Ukraine

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Nigerian Army Says It Killed A Boko Haram Commander And 10 Fighters

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Russian Security Committee's Vice Chairman Medvedev: We Never Found The Two Nuclear Submarines Trump Spoke Of Deploying Closer To Russia

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Russian Security Committee's Vice Chairman Medvedev: Victory Will Come 'Soon' In Ukraine But Equally Important To Think Of How To Prevent New Conflicts

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Russian Security Committee's Vice Chairman Medvedev: Trump Is An Effective Leader Who Seeks Peace

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Russian Security Committee's Vice Chairman Medvedev: Victory Will Come Soon In Ukraine War

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Ukraine President Zelenskiy: Next Round Of Trilateral Talks Set For Feb 4-5 In Abu Dhabi

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Russian Defence Ministry: Russia Gains Control Over Two Villages In Ukraine's Kharkiv And Donetsk Regions

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Trump Says India Will Buy Oil From Venezuela

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Istanbul Jan Consumer Price Index 4.56% Month-On-Month - Chamber Of Commerce

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Saudi Arabia's Stock Index Down 2.1% - Lseg

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Pakistan Balochistan Chief Minister Says 145 Militants Killed After Attacks Over 40 Hours

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    "ThatfxSniper📈" recalled a message
    3487443 flag
    hsjskbdb
    Similarities: Both are driven by inflation concerns, geopolitical factors, and expectations of currency devaluation. However, they differ in that central banks are now making large-scale, continuous purchases (in China, India, Turkey, etc.), which is not purely speculative . ETFs and institutional allocations are more structural, and there is no extreme single speculative event like the Hunt brothers' manipulation in 1980. Therefore, the price movements are "very similar," but the support is more solid, and while bubble risks exist, they are not entirely the same. Regarding the current surge in gold prices and future prospects, you mentioned that "the increase will far exceed the inflation rate by 2026," which has already partially materialized in 2025-2026. Gold has risen from approximately $2000+ in 2023 to the current $5000+, far exceeding the cumulative CPI over the same period. Most institutions predict that gold will remain in the $5000-$6200 range in 2026 (UBS $6200 target, JPM $5055 average, etc.), with some optimists seeing a possible $7000+. Has gold already transformed from a "safe-haven asset" into a "risk asset"? This is a very sharp observation, and there is indeed disagreement in the market: The traditional view is that gold remains the ultimate safe haven, with low correlation to the stock market, and performs exceptionally well during periods of geopolitical risk, inflation, and a weak dollar. Multiple reports (JPM, VanEck, BIS, etc.) for 2025–2026 still emphasize its role as "insurance," hedging against currency devaluation and geopolitical risks. However, reality has changed: gold volatility has increased significantly in recent years (monthly gains sometimes exceeding 10% in 2025), and its correlation with certain risk assets (such as Bitcoin) has occasionally increased. In times of extreme liquidity tightening or a sharp rebound in risk appetite, gold may also experience short-term sell-offs (like in the early stages of interest rate hikes in 2022). Therefore, to some extent, gold has become partially "risk-averse"—it is no longer a zero-volatility capital-preserving tool, but rather a strategic asset with strong trends and cyclicality. Especially at high levels, speculative elements increase, and the risk of a correction is considerable. However, the mainstream consensus remains that gold still leans towards safety during systemic crises, rather than being a purely risky asset like stocks. Central bank buying and the global trend of de-dollarization have strengthened its "strategic reserve" status. Overall, your historical analogy is quite accurate; gold is indeed currently in a "frenzied + structural" phase similar to the late 1970s, but with more support from real demand. Short-term bullish sentiment remains strong, but whether a repeat of the 1980-1982-style major correction will occur after consolidation at high levels is one of the biggest uncertainties of 2026. What is your view on the probability of a correction? Or which specific driving factor are you more focused on?
    [100]1. The Fed chairman has warned that gold is rising too high and affirmed that gold will not affect the USD. 2. Russia and Ukraine may end the war in March. 3. Trump has appointed a rebel as Fed chairman, a person considered a proponent of a strong USD. 4. Gold has risen far beyond inflation. 5. The gold standard system will not return because the transfer of goods is too difficult to calculate and invest in, unlike the current USD monetary system which is easy to use and allows for profitable investment through channels such as cryptocurrencies, stocks, etc. Countries can trade more easily and can invest for profit. Everyone says that the US public debt exceeds $38 trillion, so countries can sell all their US bonds and buy gold. If the US public debt exceeds $40 trillion, countries will also accept it because in the next 50 years no currency will replace the USD except China, but currently they are not accepted due to exchange rate manipulation. There are still concerns that China's gold purchases have their own agendas. They also buy a large amount of oil and gas, with the intention of occupying Taiwan in the next few years or by 2030. In fact, many countries predicted that Trump might become president in 2025, so starting in late 2023, central banks began buying gold because Trump's policies are erratic and could affect the USD. They need to diversify their assets, not abandon them. Remember, the US has two parties: the Democratic Party and the US. Their policies are constantly changing. In the midterm elections in November, I think the Democrats will regain control of the Senate and the House of Representatives. At that time, they will fight against Trump. The Hunt brothers manipulated the silver market, not gold. In 1980, central banks also sold US bonds, just like today, because they lost confidence in the high inflation in the US, exceeding 13 percent due to the money pumped to support the military in Vietnam. The person who eradicated inflation and gold in 1980 was Fed Paula. VoLc Kern raised interest rates. Over 21 percent restored confidence in the USD, but in return, the US has been in recession for many years. Why is Trump now appointing someone who opposes his policies as chairman of the Fed?
    3487443 flag
    The signs of gold bull cycles and the end of the cycle are that gold usually rises very sharply in the last 3 years, but the similarity between 1980 and 2011 is that the final year saw a very strong increase. Currently, the gold price increase in 2026 is very similar to the two previous cycles, with the final year also showing a very strong increase. The average of the two previous cycles: in 1980, gold reached $850, by 2000 it was only over $200, from 2000 to 2011 it rose to $1950, and by 2025 it will return to $1035. The common point is that gold has decreased by half or fallen back to its real value. The real value of gold is between $1600 and $2000, equivalent to the 2019 inflation due to the COVID-19 recession, when the Fed injected a large amount of money into the market, resulting in inflation above 9 percent.
    just Brendon flag
    hello fastbul
    just Brendon flag
    alert for tonight move I have+1000 Pip's confirmed move analysis
    3505272 flag
    Hello Fasbull
    3508362 flag
    hello
    ABU BAKKOR SIDDQUE flag
    hlw
    Robiul flag
    hi
    3486743 flag
    hi
    3508537 flag
    Why does Trump want Russia and Ukraine to stop fighting? Because the USD lost confidence in 2022 when Russia attacked Ukraine. The US froze $300 billion in Russian assets. Since then, China has been buying gold and selling off US bonds, but it can't sell all of them because global trade uses the USD. China is buying gold and oil as a precaution against attacking Taiwan in the next few years, possibly 2030. Furthermore, Trump's erratic policies have weakened the USD, not because he's abandoning it. Russia, unable to use the USD due to the war, is using gold for transactions, but gold trading is very difficult due to transportation issues. The BRICS group was conceived by Russia, not China, because Russia couldn't use the USD, so they used gold for transactions. Trump wants to address the root cause: the weakening USD.
    3508537 flag
    Is the kid there? It's Hieu.
    3508537 flag
    I think the US wants Fast Bull to stop operating to reduce gold trading. Gold exchanges in the US and China want people to limit gold trading to avoid risk. The CME fund will increase margin requirements many times over in the near future.
    3508537 flag
    For the past few days, Fast Bull has been eerily deserted due to an intentional system error.
    3508537 flag
    Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) worldwide are restricting people from buying gold, warning that gold is about to fall sharply.
    3508537 flag
    In China, the world's largest gold market, people are also restricting their gold purchases.
    3508537 flag
    Here I am all alone, so lonely in this dark space.
    3508537 flag
    Twice before, in 1980 and again in 2011, the person who destroyed gold was Fed.
    3508537 flag
    Could history repeat itself in 2026?
    3508537 flag
    No one came here to call me crazy like before, I feel so lonely in this new world that was so lively and analytical just a few days ago.
    Type here...
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          Wealthy Investors Turn to Gold Leasing as Prices Stay Elevated, Unlocking Yield from Traditionally Passive Assets

          Gerik

          Economic

          Summary:

          With gold prices hovering near historic highs, affluent investors are increasingly leasing their idle gold holdings to refiners and jewelers, transforming the precious metal into a yield-generating asset..

          Gold Transitions from Safe Haven to Income Generator

          Gold, long considered a non-yielding store of value, is gaining a new role in the portfolios of the ultra-wealthy as a source of passive income. Amid persistent high gold prices, wealthy investors are now leasing out their physical gold bars to market participants such as refiners and jewelers. These entities are facing mounting difficulties in financing precious metal inventories through traditional credit lines due to soaring costs. Leasing gold offers them a cost-effective alternative while simultaneously providing the gold owners with a steady return.
          The underlying dynamic reflects a shift in how high-net-worth individuals manage their assets in a high-interest, high-valuation environment. Instead of letting bullion sit idle in vaults, investors are unlocking liquidity from their holdings without selling, capitalizing on the growing demand from downstream players in the gold supply chain.

          Surging Prices Reshape Financing Models in the Gold Industry

          Gold’s meteoric rise with prices lingering near or at record levels for much of 2025 has strained the cash flow of companies that rely on physical inventory. Refiners and jewelry manufacturers now find it more burdensome to secure conventional loans to stockpile gold for production. As a result, leasing arrangements have become increasingly attractive.
          These leases operate as short- to medium-term agreements where the owner lends gold in exchange for a rental yield, often structured with the backing of physical collateral and short maturity cycles. While gold leasing has existed in institutional circles for decades, it has now entered the private wealth domain with renewed vigor.

          Technology and Risk Mitigation Measures Drive Growth of Leasing Platforms

          To support this rising trend, a wave of financial platforms is emerging to streamline and secure the gold leasing process. These platforms offer insurance, independent audits, and digital tracking technologies to reduce fraud risk and improve transparency. Their presence has created a more accessible and trusted ecosystem, particularly appealing to private clients who may lack the infrastructure to lend bullion directly.
          For example, gold custodians and digital asset vault services now provide real-time traceability of leased bars, combining blockchain-inspired verification tools with traditional auditing protocols. This has reassured investors who seek yield without compromising the integrity or recoverability of their holdings.

          Changing Investment Psychology Amid Elevated Rates and Inflation

          The broader economic context is also encouraging this shift. With inflationary pressures and global interest rate volatility remaining prominent in 2025, gold has retained its appeal as a hedge. However, as yields on traditional fixed-income instruments have risen, investors are increasingly reluctant to hold zero-return assets without an income component.
          Leasing allows gold holders to maintain exposure to the metal while matching or exceeding short-term interest rates through lease payments. This transforms gold into a quasi-fixed income instrument for the wealthy, especially during periods of market uncertainty when capital preservation and liquidity are paramount.
          The rise of gold leasing represents a structural evolution in how wealthy investors manage precious metals. No longer content with passive exposure, they are now leveraging the asset’s intrinsic value in active yield-seeking strategies. As leasing platforms continue to mature and institutionalize this market, gold may increasingly serve not just as a hedge against crisis but as a source of income in its own right. This transformation could reshape gold’s role in portfolios, particularly in an era where income generation and capital efficiency are closely intertwined.

          Source: CNBC

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Soybean Futures Rebound On Signs China Is Ramping Up Purchases

          Justin

          Commodity

          Forex

          Economic

          Soybean futures jumped on signals that China is stepping up buying of the oilseed, offering hope for US farmers after purchases appeared to have stalled.

          Prices in Chicago rose as much as 3.2% on Monday, hitting a fresh 17-month high, after US President Donald Trump said China is in the process of buying soybeans. "They will be doing a lot of soybean purchases," he told reporters aboard Air Force One last Friday, adding that those purchases could start before spring.

          Brokerage AgResource Co said importers in China have purchased seven to 10 cargoes from the US, some for shipping in January and others set for June or later.

          Soybeans have been a flashpoint in trade tensions between the US and China, the world's largest importer of the oilseed. China has held off buying US soybeans for much of the season, squeezing American growers and giving Beijing a key bargaining chip during tariff negotiations.

          The Trump administration said last month Beijing agreed to buy at least 12 million tons of US soybeans this season — a deal that is considered crucial for American farmers struggling with inflation and high input costs. However, the latest US Department of Agriculture (USDA) export numbers through Nov 12 showed that so far only 232,000 tons were destined for China out of a total 1.2 million in soybean sales.

          Soybean Futures Rebound On Signs China Is Ramping Up Purchases_1

          That's down from the 332,000 tons the USDA had said last week was headed for China, as the agency corrected its data on Monday to reflect a cancellation of 100,000 tons. The USDA last Friday cut its forecast for American soybean exports and output in its first supply-and-demand update since September.

          The lack of significant buying from China has weighed on the markets, and traders and farmers have grown anxious as Beijing has yet to confirm specifics of the trade deal.

          "Prices have turned back higher this morning after President Trump said China purchases of US beans are likely before spring and talks regarding purchases are ongoing," the Hightower Report said in a note.

          The president's comments were echoed by his staff, with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins saying on Fox Business that China has "begun to buy a little" and she sees things "moving forward".

          "We will get there," Rollins said in the interview on Monday. "We are going to get that deal signed — it's not even signed yet — and then we are off to the races."

          Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a Sunday interview on Fox that he is confident China will hold up its end of the deal. "They have already started the purchases of soybeans," he said. "Prices of soybeans are way up since the meeting in [South] Korea, and I think they will honour this."

          However, there's a potential downside to the price rebound. The rally has pushed US soybean futures back above Brazil's prices, making American beans less competitive for low-cost buyers.

          "China's buying of US soybeans is for political purposes and the CBOT rally will push non-China business to Brazil," AgResource said in a note.

          Meanwhile, as traders await more exports, domestic processing is helping to pick up the slack with crushing hitting a record in October, according to National Oilseed Processors Association data on Monday.

          Source: Theedgemarkets

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
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          India’s Trade Deficit Hits Historic High in October as Gold Imports Surge and U.S. Tariffs Bite

          Gerik

          Economic

          Record-Setting Trade Deficit Undermines External Stability

          India’s October trade figures have shattered historical records, with the goods trade deficit ballooning to $41.7 billion, significantly above market expectations of $28.8 billion. This marks the widest monthly deficit on record, exceeding the previous high of $37.8 billion registered in November 2024. The sharp deterioration underscores a convergence of seasonal gold demand and tariff-induced export weakness, both of which have compounded pressures on India’s external balance.
          Commerce ministry data released Monday confirm that gold imports surged to $14.7 billion nearly triple the level of October 2024 driven by robust consumer demand during the five-day festive season. Estimates suggest that $11 billion of gold was sold domestically during this short period, illustrating the continued cultural and economic weight of gold in Indian consumption behavior. However, the magnitude of this surge introduced an unsustainable spike in import costs.

          Tariff Impact Evident in Falling U.S. Shipments

          Simultaneously, India’s export engine sputtered under the weight of punitive tariffs from the United States. Since the implementation of a 50% import tariff at the end of August, India’s outbound shipments to its largest export destination have declined for two consecutive months. In October, exports to the U.S. fell 8.5% year-over-year to $6.3 billion.
          The decline in exports was broad-based. Gems and jewelry exports fell 29.5% to $2.3 billion, while engineering goods a pillar of India’s industrial exports dropped 16.7% to $9.4 billion. Textiles and garments also suffered, with cotton, man-made yarn, and ready-made clothing exports down by 12%-13%. The U.S. represents the largest destination for each of these sectors, making the impact of tariffs both sectorally deep and strategically significant.
          Despite this downturn, total exports to the U.S. for the first seven months of the fiscal year still reached $52 billion, reinforcing the centrality of the American market to India’s trade ecosystem. However, the persistent shortfall in monthly flows reflects a structural strain that could be difficult to reverse without a broader trade agreement.

          China Trade Expands as India Diversifies Export Markets

          In contrast to declining U.S. demand, India’s exports to China rose 42% in October, totaling $1.6 billion. This uptick suggests India may be attempting to rebalance its export orientation in response to geopolitical and trade tensions. However, the overall scale of India’s trade with China remains much smaller compared to that with the U.S., and such a shift is unlikely to offset the loss in revenue from the American market.
          The sharp rise in imports and slump in exports have clear implications for India’s current account deficit (CAD). ICRA Research, a Moody’s-owned agency, now expects the CAD to widen to 2.4–2.5% of GDP in Q3 of FY25-26. This projection nearly doubles the previous forecast and reflects structural deterioration in India’s trade balance.
          Looking ahead, ICRA expects a moderation in merchandise imports during November and December due to the post-festive slowdown in gold buying and a modest recovery in exports. However, the CAD for the full fiscal year is still projected at around 1.2% of GDP, assuming the U.S. tariffs remain in place through March 2026. Should tariffs persist beyond that, further deterioration could occur, particularly if energy prices remain elevated.

          Energy and Agricultural Imports Emerge as Diplomatic Levers

          In a bid to rebalance its trade surplus with Washington and de-escalate tensions, India has increased purchases of U.S. oil and gas. This move is part of a broader diplomatic strategy to win tariff relief. New Delhi is also expected to increase imports of American agricultural products as negotiations continue. While these efforts may help soften the U.S. stance, the immediate outlook remains uncertain, with no firm breakthrough in bilateral talks reported thus far.
          U.S. President Donald Trump has hinted at the possibility of reducing tariffs on Indian goods, but tangible progress will depend on continued diplomatic engagement and reciprocal concessions. Any reduction in tariffs could materially improve India’s export prospects and ease CAD pressures, making the outcome of these negotiations crucial for India’s external sector stability.
          India’s record October trade deficit reflects the combined weight of surging gold demand and adverse trade policy developments. While some of the spike may prove temporary, the persistence of U.S. tariffs and soft global demand raises concerns about India’s ability to sustain export growth. Without a meaningful policy shift or breakthrough in trade negotiations, the risk of a widening current account deficit remains high a vulnerability that could limit policy flexibility as the economy enters an election year in 2026.

          Source: CNBC

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
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          AI Stocks Under Pressure Despite Nvidia’s $500 Billion Order Book, but Analysts Still See Room for a Year-End Rally

          Gerik

          Economic

          Stocks

          Technology Rout Intensifies as AI Enthusiasm Encounters Valuation Fatigue

          The Nasdaq Composite declined by 0.84% on Monday, continuing a downward trend led by weakness in major technology stocks. High-profile names such as Meta, Oracle, and Apple saw losses exceeding 1%, while Nvidia widely viewed as the cornerstone of the AI investment thesis dropped nearly 2%. The retreat highlights rising investor caution around elevated valuations and capital-intensive AI expansion plans, which have dominated market narratives throughout 2025.
          Nvidia’s upcoming third-quarter earnings report is now a focal point for the market. CEO Jensen Huang previously disclosed in October that the company has $500 billion in orders across 2025 and 2026. While this forward-looking figure suggests a robust pipeline of AI chip demand, it also raises expectations that may be difficult to satisfy in the near term. As Ross Mayfield of Baird notes, even a modest downgrade in Nvidia’s guidance could trigger a strong negative reaction given its outsized role in AI-related equity sentiment.

          Diverging Fed Messaging Compounds Market Uncertainty

          Further complicating the equity outlook are mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials ahead of the December 9–10 policy meeting. On Monday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller leaned in favor of another rate cut, citing persistent labor market softness. Conversely, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson advocated for a slower approach, noting that the current policy stance is approaching neutrality.
          This policy ambiguity has introduced additional volatility into tech stocks, which are particularly sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations due to their long-duration cash flow profiles. As a result, investor confidence in a sustained AI-led rally has weakened, at least temporarily.

          AI Boom Narrative Intact Despite Pullback

          Despite short-term headwinds, Nvidia’s $500 billion order backlog remains a potent symbol of the sector’s underlying strength. Analysts such as Michael Graham at Canaccord Genuity maintain that bullish and bearish forces are currently balanced, but that a year-end rally is likely. Graham’s view rests on the assumption that recent selling pressure may be overdone relative to the long-term growth trajectory of AI infrastructure and enterprise adoption.
          Supporting this outlook, HSBC strategist Max Kettner stated on Monday that the probability of a “melt-up” a rapid upward surge in equity prices remains higher than the risk of an AI-driven bubble collapse. Kettner’s position suggests that market resilience is not only intact but could accelerate in the final weeks of 2025, particularly if Nvidia’s earnings beat expectations or if macro data supports further rate cuts.

          Broader Market Dynamics Reflect Risk Rebalancing

          The pressure on AI and tech shares mirrors a broader recalibration in risk appetite. Alphabet managed to defy the broader tech selloff, buoyed by news that Berkshire Hathaway had taken a stake in the company. Still, the pan-European Stoxx 600 slipped by 0.54%, and overall investor positioning has grown more defensive. The market’s current caution is not entirely sector-specific but rather reflects overlapping concerns across policy, valuation, and global trade dynamics.
          For example, Bitcoin’s ongoing decline viewed by some analysts as a leading indicator of speculative sentiment could signal continued fragility in U.S. equities. Others, however, argue that digital assets still have near-term support, and thus their correlation with equities may weaken if broader monetary or fiscal catalysts emerge.

          Geopolitical Developments and Energy Deals Add to Complexity

          Beyond monetary policy and earnings, geopolitical factors are also playing a role in investor decision-making. India’s announcement that it will source 10% of its liquefied petroleum gas from the U.S. adds another layer to energy diplomacy, strengthening ties between Washington and New Delhi at a time when global supply chains remain highly politicized.
          At the same time, Switzerland’s recent trade deal with the U.S. has stirred domestic debate. Critics within Switzerland have labeled the agreement a “surrender,” accusing the government of capitulating to American pressure. The controversy illustrates how trade negotiations are becoming increasingly contested political flashpoints, capable of influencing both investor sentiment and policy outlooks.
          The current downturn in AI and tech stocks may reflect short-term skepticism more than a fundamental rejection of the sector’s growth story. Nvidia’s order book, central bank divergence, and geopolitical tailwinds suggest that the structural case for AI remains largely intact. Whether the market can translate this long-term optimism into a year-end rally will depend on upcoming earnings clarity, macro data releases, and how investors digest the Fed’s December decision. For now, the mood is cautious but not without hope.

          Source: CNBC

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Fed Officials Clash Over December Rate Cut as Labor Market Signals Stall and Inflation Shows Signs of Stabilizing

          Gerik

          Economic

          Diverging Perspectives on Policy Direction Reflect Rising Uncertainty Within the Fed

          As the Federal Reserve prepares for its final policy meeting of 2025 on December 9–10, internal divisions have become increasingly visible. Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson offered contrasting views this week on whether the central bank should proceed with a third rate cut this year. Their differing stances reveal deeper tension over how to balance concerns about slowing labor market momentum with persistent, albeit cooling, inflation pressures.
          Waller, speaking under the title “The Case for Continuing Rate Cuts”, openly advocated for a December reduction in the federal funds rate, arguing that such a move would act as a form of “risk management.” He believes the labor market is operating near stall speed, citing recent data revisions suggesting that job creation between May and August may have been flat or even negative.

          Labor Market Weakness Drives Waller’s Pro-Cut Stance

          Waller contends that the slowdown in payroll growth is primarily a function of diminished labor demand, rather than constrained labor supply. He downplayed alternative explanations such as immigration trends, emphasizing that metrics like wage growth, job openings, and quits rates do not point to labor shortages. Based on these signals, Waller believes that weaker hiring is not simply a reflection of fewer available workers, but of underlying economic fatigue.
          He also challenged the idea that uncertainty in data reporting should delay policy action. In his view, “data fog” is not a valid reason to defer a cut, particularly when survey-based “soft” data, such as the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, points to deteriorating economic confidence. He noted that the October drop in sentiment was both broad-based and consistent with past pre-recessionary patterns, further reinforcing his case for preemptive monetary easing.

          Jefferson Advocates Caution as Neutral Rate Nears

          In contrast, Vice Chair Jefferson urged a more measured approach. Speaking in Kansas City, Jefferson warned that while downside risks to employment have increased, the Fed is nearing its neutral policy rate — a level that neither stimulates nor restricts economic activity. He emphasized the need to move “slowly” and monitor the evolving balance of risks. His remarks suggest a more conservative stance, rooted in the belief that premature cuts could undermine inflation control just as progress appears to be solidifying.
          Jefferson acknowledged that incoming labor market data has been limited, with the September jobs report still pending release. However, he cited alternative indicators such as unemployment insurance claims, which have shown little recent movement. He described anecdotal job market feedback as mixed, reflecting a gradual, rather than abrupt, deceleration in employment trends.

          Inflation Debates Remain Central to Policy Decision

          Both officials agreed that recent inflation appears less threatening, especially as the impact of new tariffs is seen as temporary. Waller emphasized that inflation excluding tariffs is approaching the Fed’s 2% goal, while Jefferson echoed this sentiment, noting that recent price pressures could represent one-time adjustments rather than systemic inflation.
          However, not all FOMC members are convinced. Several regional Fed presidents, including Jeff Schmid (Kansas City) and Susan Collins (Boston), have recently signaled a preference for holding rates steady due to lingering inflation risks. Their caution reflects concerns that a third cut in 2025 could risk reigniting inflationary pressures just as they begin to cool.

          Market Expectations Have Shifted Dramatically

          Market sentiment has turned sharply over the past month. Whereas traders were previously pricing in a 94% probability of a December cut, the odds have now fallen to just 42%. This decline reflects growing uncertainty about the Fed’s next move, as investors digest conflicting signals from both within the central bank and the broader economic data environment.
          The growing divergence between Waller and Jefferson illustrates the complexity of the Fed’s current policy calculus. On one side lies the risk of a weakening labor market that could spiral without timely support; on the other, the imperative to preserve gains in inflation control and protect the Fed’s credibility. With limited new data expected before the December meeting, the decision may hinge more on interpretation and sentiment than empirical clarity.
          This internal debate, now playing out in public, suggests that the Fed’s path forward will not be smooth and that monetary policy in 2026 could depend heavily on how well the Fed manages this delicate transition phase.

          Source: Yahoo Finance

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          China’s Budget Retrenchment Sparks Economic Slowdown Concerns Despite Meeting 2025 Growth Target

          Gerik

          Economic

          Sharp Reduction in Fiscal Outlays Undermines Investment-Led Recovery

          In October 2025, China’s broad fiscal spending contracted by 19% year-over-year to 2.37 trillion yuan ($334 billion), marking the steepest monthly decline since comparable records began in early 2021. This downturn reflects a deliberate shift in Beijing’s fiscal strategy, signaling a reduction in short-term stimulus support at a time when the broader economy is showing signs of fatigue across investment, consumption, and external demand.
          The combined expenditure across the general public budget and the government-managed fund was also the lowest recorded since July 2023, illustrating a material slowdown in the government’s contribution to economic activity. According to Goldman Sachs’ “augmented fiscal deficit” indicator, China’s fiscal posture has become meaningfully less supportive, reinforcing a broader narrative of fiscal restraint as the country edges closer to achieving its annual growth goal of around 5%.

          Reduced Government Spending and Reallocation of Resources Dampen Fixed Asset Investment

          The direct consequence of this fiscal pullback is evident in fixed asset investment data. The drop in budget spending appears to be causally linked to the broader contraction in investment, particularly in infrastructure. Infrastructure-related disbursements from the general public account covering sectors such as transport, water infrastructure, and community development fell by 26% to 361.6 billion yuan in October, underscoring a reduced pace of capital formation.
          Goldman Sachs analysts, including Lisheng Wang, suggest that a larger portion of incremental fiscal outlays is now being used to repay arrears to corporations, rather than initiating new investment projects. This reallocation has weakened headline investment figures and interrupted one of the few remaining levers supporting China’s post-pandemic recovery.

          Stimulus Delays and Limited Deployment Constrain Near-Term Growth Potential

          While Beijing has recently introduced new stimulus measures, including 500 billion yuan in additional policy financing and another 500 billion yuan in special local government bond quotas, the economic impact of these injections is not yet visible. Most of the policy funding only became available at the end of October, while only 40% of the special bond quota is directed toward direct investment projects. These figures imply a lag in transmission, with limited immediate economic effect.
          The cautious rollout of stimulus coincides with a broader policy intention to rein in off-balance-sheet debt and stabilize local government finances. A total of 2.8 trillion yuan in earlier bond issuances this year were aimed at reducing such debt, suggesting that Chinese authorities are shifting toward fiscal consolidation despite ongoing economic headwinds.

          Budget Deficit Widening While Revenue Growth Stalls

          For the January to October period, China’s broad fiscal expenditure reached 30.7 trillion yuan, growing at 5.2%, but revenue gains lagged significantly. Total government income rose only 0.2% to 22.1 trillion yuan, driven down in part by a 6.5% year-on-year drop in land sales. This imbalance left a cumulative budget deficit of 8.6 trillion yuan more than 20% higher than the same period in 2024 highlighting growing pressure on fiscal sustainability even as Beijing prioritizes economic discipline.
          The modest revenue performance, combined with restrained spending, suggests that the government is intentionally preserving fiscal space. Economists from Goldman Sachs posit that this approach likely reflects a desire to maintain capacity for additional easing measures in early 2026, particularly ahead of the National People’s Congress in March, when fiscal plans for the new year are typically unveiled.

          Shift Toward Long-Term Priorities and Fiscal Prudence

          China’s Finance Minister Lan Fo’an recently reaffirmed the government’s commitment to keeping the budget deficit and borrowing at “reasonable” levels over the next five years. He emphasized a strategic pivot in resource allocation toward sectors such as technology, social welfare, agriculture, and environmental protection. This reorientation aligns with broader industrial and regional policies but comes at the cost of reduced short-term macroeconomic stimulation.
          The current stance indicates a preference for structural support over aggressive stimulus a move that prioritizes financial stability and debt management, particularly within vulnerable local government sectors.

          Fiscal Caution Signals Confidence in 2025 Growth But Risks Undermining Momentum

          The steep cut in October’s government expenditure reflects a fundamental recalibration of China’s fiscal policy, signaling confidence that the 2025 growth target will be achieved without further aggressive stimulus. However, the trade-off is a potential weakening of near-term economic momentum, especially in infrastructure and investment-related sectors.
          While Beijing’s long-term priorities remain anchored in technology, sustainability, and risk mitigation, the timing and scale of fiscal support will be crucial in maintaining investor confidence and domestic demand into 2026. The key question going forward is whether the delayed effects of current stimulus measures will be sufficient to offset the current softness in growth drivers or whether the Chinese economy will require another round of front-loaded support early next year.

          Source: Bloomberg

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Strategic Convergence: U.S.–Saudi Investment Forum Gathers Corporate Titans Amid Renewed Diplomatic Push

          Gerik

          Economic

          Crown Prince Bin Salman Returns to U.S. Stage with Economic Diplomacy at the Forefront

          Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) is set to make his first official trip to the United States since the politically turbulent year of 2018, marking a significant moment in U.S.–Saudi relations. A high-profile investment forum, scheduled to take place on November 19 at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, D.C., will serve as the diplomatic centerpiece of this visit. The forum is strategically timed one day after MBS’s meeting with President Donald Trump, symbolizing a renewed bilateral commitment centered on economic collaboration and private-sector engagement.
          Executives from major U.S. corporations, including Chevron, Qualcomm, Cisco, General Dynamics, and Pfizer, are expected to attend, along with representatives from IBM, Google (Alphabet), Adobe, Halliburton, Salesforce, and State Street. The participation of Saudi firms such as Aramco and Parsons Corp underscores mutual investment interests. These companies collectively represent key pillars of the global economy, from energy and healthcare to cloud computing and semiconductors.
          Their attendance signals that both nations are looking beyond traditional government-to-government ties, placing private sector alignment at the core of future cooperation. The inclusion of venture capital heavyweight Andreessen Horowitz also points to the potential for startup ecosystem synergies, particularly in emerging tech fields.

          Agenda Reflects Forward-Looking Priorities Across Industries

          Panels at the forum will span multiple high-stakes sectors, including artificial intelligence, aerospace, energy, healthcare, finance, and broader technological innovation. This agenda indicates an intentional shift toward next-generation industries that will shape global competitiveness and national security over the coming decades.
          The emphasis on AI and aerospace also reflects the convergence of U.S. tech dominance and Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform plan, which seeks to diversify the kingdom’s economy beyond oil dependence. In this context, corporate engagements at the forum are not just economic opportunities they are levers for geopolitical influence and economic restructuring.

          Diplomatic Shadow: Khashoggi Case Lingers Over Political Optics

          Despite the business-focused agenda, the trip carries significant diplomatic weight. MBS’s last visit was in 2018, before the international outrage following the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. U.S. intelligence agencies had attributed the operation’s approval to the crown prince, casting a long shadow over subsequent bilateral engagements. Although MBS denied direct involvement, he acknowledged responsibility as the country’s de facto leader.
          His return to Washington is not merely symbolic it is a calculated move to reset international perceptions, particularly among American political and business elites. The success of this strategy will hinge on the balance between investor confidence and political accountability, especially with the U.S. presidential election cycle nearing.

          Trade, Defense, and the F-35 Announcement Signal Strategic Interdependence

          On the eve of the investment forum, President Trump announced plans to authorize the sale of U.S.-manufactured F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia. This decision underscores the dual-track strategy of fostering economic ties while reinforcing defense cooperation.
          Although it may stir domestic and international criticism, particularly in light of past human rights concerns, the move reflects a larger calculus: Saudi Arabia remains a vital defense and energy partner in a volatile region. This defense deal, coupled with the billions in bilateral investments announced earlier in the year, forms a framework of strategic interdependence that continues to bind the two nations economically and militarily.

          Economic Diplomacy as a Platform for Resetting U.S.–Saudi Relations

          The U.S.–Saudi investment forum is more than a business summit; it is a carefully constructed platform aimed at reframing a complex and at times fraught bilateral relationship. The presence of America’s corporate elite alongside Saudi decision-makers signals that economic diplomacy is now the primary vehicle for navigating this relationship.
          Whether this event marks the beginning of a sustained thaw or a transactional recalibration will depend on how effectively both parties manage domestic sensitivities, uphold international norms, and align their economic visions in a rapidly evolving global landscape. The upcoming forum will provide a public test of that alignment, where capital, technology, and political strategy intersect.

          Source: Reuters

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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