US-Indonesia Trade Pact Faces Collapse Amid Disputes Over Commitments

Economic

Summary:

The US-Indonesia trade agreement announced in July is under serious threat as US officials accuse Jakarta of reneging on key pledges, particularly related to tariff elimination and digital trade....

Initial Breakthrough Undermined by Policy Reversals

The trade agreement between the United States and Indonesia, initially hailed as a milestone in July 2025, now teeters on the verge of collapse due to what American officials describe as Indonesia’s retreat from its original commitments. The deal, which was announced by President Donald Trump as a sweeping win for US economic sectors, promised to eliminate tariffs on over 99% of US goods entering Indonesia and significantly reduce non-tariff trade barriers. In return, the United States agreed to lower its tariff threat on Indonesian products from 32% to 19%.

However, according to a senior US official speaking anonymously, Jakarta is now seeking to renegotiate or reframe several binding obligations it previously accepted. The official declined to identify the specific clauses under dispute but emphasized that the backtracking represents a serious breakdown in trust and jeopardizes the overall structure of the agreement.

Indonesia Denies Reversal, Cites Negotiation Process

Indonesian authorities have denied any abandonment of agreed terms, insisting that negotiations remain on track according to the mutual understanding reached in July. An Indonesian government representative stated that the ongoing discussions are focused on "harmonisation of language" rather than substantive policy reversals. This suggests that Jakarta may view the differences as technical rather than political, though the US side sees it as a broader issue of reliability and enforcement.

The discrepancy between the two narratives reflects a potential breakdown in bilateral communication, raising the risk that the trade pact may unravel if unresolved.

Impact on US Regional Trade Strategy

The potential failure of the deal carries implications beyond bilateral trade. US officials have drawn comparisons with recent successful trade engagements with Malaysia and Cambodia. In contrast to Indonesia’s alleged “backsliding,” Malaysia was praised by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for dropping thousands of tariff lines and enabling more efficient trade flows. This suggests that Washington may now shift strategic focus and goodwill to more cooperative Southeast Asian partners if the Indonesia agreement collapses.

US officials have voiced concerns that accepting Indonesia’s demands to reframe binding commitments would set a precedent for weaker deals, particularly in sectors like industrial goods, agriculture, and digital trade, where US companies seek stronger market access and fairer terms.

Commitments Under Scrutiny: Tariffs and Digital Trade

According to reporting from the Financial Times, Indonesia’s hesitations include removing non-tariff barriers and enacting provisions related to digital trade regulation. These areas are of increasing importance to US negotiators, particularly as digital trade becomes a critical component of modern agreements. The apparent unwillingness of Jakarta to implement enforceable changes in these domains may signal a fundamental misalignment in expectations.

While the cause of this divergence appears to be rooted in differing interpretations of the agreement's legal framing, the effect is a rapid deterioration in trust. For Washington, the inability to secure consistent follow-through from Indonesia risks undermining its broader Indo-Pacific trade agenda.

The current impasse places the US-Indonesia trade pact at a critical juncture. The US government’s perception of Indonesia’s policy reversal threatens to derail the deal unless mutual clarity and alignment are restored soon. As the Biden administration (or Trump, depending on the timeline) seeks stronger regional partnerships in Asia, the outcome of this standoff will serve as a bellwether for future trade diplomacy in the region. If unresolved, it may weaken the momentum for deeper economic integration between the US and Southeast Asia’s largest economy.

Source: Reuters

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Stocks

Surge in Bond Issuance Reflects Stronger Ties

Asian investors are increasingly turning to the Gulf’s fixed-income markets, with bond and loan inflows rising sharply in 2025. In the first nine months alone, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) bond issuance reached $126 billion up 20% year-on-year, according to LSEG data. This surge places the region on track to break annual records, underscoring the rising financial needs of oil-exporting Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations as they seek economic diversification. Concurrently, demand from Asia has intensified as regional investors rebalance portfolios in the face of slowing Chinese growth and unpredictable US economic policy.

The shift in investor behavior stems partly from deteriorating confidence in US-based investments. Tariff-centric policies and broader geopolitical risks have weakened the appeal of US Treasuries, prompting Asian institutions to seek safer, yield-generating alternatives. While this trend is partly correlated with macroeconomic uncertainties in the US and China, the causative factor lies in the comparative attractiveness of Gulf debt instruments characterized by stable credit fundamentals and higher yields.

Chinese investors, in particular, are increasing their presence, though much of their capital is routed via Hong Kong, Singapore, and Malaysia. HSBC’s regional head of debt capital markets, Nour Safa, noted that Chinese involvement is expanding across both bonds and syndicated loans. For example, Middle Eastern syndicated loans placed in Asia-Pacific markets more than tripled, climbing from below $5 billion in 2024 to over $16 billion in 2025.

Attractive Yields and Robust Demand

Investor appetite is largely driven by yield differentials. Gulf bonds, even those with comparable credit ratings to Asian debt, often offer a premium. UOB Asset Management's Chief Investment Officer, Chong Jiun Yeh, emphasized that BBB-rated Gulf bonds typically yield 10 to 20 basis points more than similar Asian issues. This yield edge reflects a mix of strong issuer credibility and investor-friendly market structures.

Such dynamics have enabled Gulf issuers to secure favorable pricing. A notable case is Qatar’s $1 billion AA-rated bond issued last month, with 40% taken by Asian investors and priced at just 15 basis points over US Treasuries. These conditions have also encouraged innovation in issuance strategies, including the rising use of local Asian currencies. Saudi National Bank recently debuted a Singapore-dollar bond, while Sharjah raised 2 billion yuan ($280 million) via China’s Panda bond market. These moves signal Gulf borrowers’ increasing comfort with Asian capital channels and regulatory environments.

IMF Forecasts and Trade Volumes Support Confidence

Macroeconomic forecasts further justify this investor migration. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the Gulf to grow by 3.9% in 2025 and to accelerate to 4.3% in 2026. These projections outpace global estimates, which are expected to decelerate from 3.2% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026. The stronger Gulf outlook reflects both higher oil revenues and ambitious non-oil sector development initiatives.

Trade volumes reinforce the region’s rising prominence. According to Asia House, Gulf-Asia trade climbed 15% to a record $516 billion last year more than double the region’s trade with Western markets. This surge in trade suggests a mutually reinforcing relationship between economic and financial integration. The demand for Gulf debt may thus be partly caused by the underlying trade expansion, which builds investor confidence and facilitates capital mobility across the regions.

Changing Allocation Strategies Across Asia

Over the past 12 to 18 months, Asian institutional investors have materially increased their Gulf allocations. Ritesh Agarwal from Emirates NBD Capital reports that the average Asian share in Gulf debt placements has risen to 15–20%, up from just 5–7% in early 2024. While Chinese investors play a role, capital is also being funneled through hedge funds, asset managers, and private banks across Southeast Asia.

The growing popularity of Islamic bonds (sukuk) also supports wider Asian participation, particularly from Malaysia, which maintains a well-developed Shariah-compliant financial ecosystem. This provides further structural incentives for Gulf issuers to target Asian markets, particularly as the Gulf’s fiscal reforms and infrastructure spending accelerate.

Outlook for Deeper Gulf-Asia Financial Integration

Looking ahead, the emergence of Gulf-issued Panda bonds on China's domestic market could mark a significant evolution. DBS Group’s Clifford Lee predicts that regular issuance could unlock access to China’s $20 trillion onshore bond market. This development would not only expand funding sources for Gulf issuers but also signal a more entrenched financial partnership between the two regions.

As the global financial landscape continues to adjust to shifting growth centers and monetary policy realignments, the Gulf’s appeal as a stable, high-yield destination for Asian capital is set to grow further. This trend is not only a function of market dynamics but also reflects broader economic realignments in global trade and investment flows.

The rising flow of Asian capital into Gulf debt markets is both a strategic investment response to global uncertainties and a reflection of deepening bilateral ties. With favorable yield spreads, robust macroeconomic projections, and increasing financial integration tools, Gulf economies are positioning themselves as stable and attractive hubs for Asian investors navigating a volatile global environment.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

Commodity

Crude Prices Steady After Losses, Market Watches for Signals

Oil markets held firm early Wednesday in Asia, with Brent crude rising modestly by 0.2% to $62.05 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also up 0.2% to $58.38. This follows a nearly 1% decline in the previous session, as supply-side concerns continued to weigh on sentiment. The stabilization reflects a balancing act: while the market is facing an expected surplus, evolving geopolitical developments are keeping volatility contained.

Analysts at ING highlighted the contradiction underpinning current price behavior. Global oil markets are moving deeper into a supply surplus, yet Russian output remains a wild card. While seaborne exports from Russia are still flowing, the country is struggling to secure buyers particularly in the face of lingering sanctions and logistical bottlenecks. Should demand for Russian barrels fall further, output may have to decline, providing a potential counterbalance to the supply glut.

The situation illustrates a complex causal relationship: while oversupply typically pressures prices downward, geopolitical frictions especially surrounding Russia continue to introduce upward risk. This tension keeps prices rangebound despite bearish fundamentals.

Ukraine Peace Talks Could Reshape Market Dynamics

A critical variable now is diplomacy. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced that Kyiv and its European partners will soon present a refined peace plan to the United States. Any progress in ending the war could lead to the rollback of sanctions on Russian energy exports. That would likely reintroduce more Russian crude into formal global trade channels, potentially exacerbating the oversupply situation.

However, the timeline and structure of such a peace process remain uncertain. Even if sanctions are lifted, logistical and reputational risks may prevent an immediate return to full-scale Russian exports. Still, the correlation between diplomatic momentum and future supply expectations is strong enough to influence short-term pricing behavior.

U.S. Output Forecast Revised Upward

Adding further pressure to the supply side, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its 2025 production forecast to 13.61 million barrels per day an increase of 20,000 bpd. This revision signals continued resilience in U.S. shale output, a key contributor to the global supply landscape. Rising American production may further weigh on prices, especially if demand growth fails to keep pace amid concerns about China’s slowing economy and tightening financial conditions in major markets.

Oil prices are currently navigating a narrow range, caught between mounting global supply and geopolitical uncertainty. While peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia could dramatically alter the sanctions landscape and future Russian oil flows, for now the market remains cautious. Investors are also digesting higher U.S. output forecasts, which add further downside pressure. In the short term, oil may remain rangebound, with diplomacy, sanctions policy, and global demand indicators playing critical roles in determining the next directional move.

Source: Reuters

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Forex

Economic

Yen Slides Amid Diverging Global Rate Paths

The Japanese yen continued to weaken on Wednesday, reflecting persistent pressure from global yield disparities. Despite growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will raise interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting, the yen lost 0.6% overnight, hovering near 156.82 against the U.S. dollar. It also fell to record lows against the euro and remained weak against the Australian dollar, which gained 0.8% in the prior session.

Analysts attribute the yen’s vulnerability to a confluence of forces. Long-term U.S. yields have edged higher in recent sessions, while Japan’s fiscal expansion and tepid growth outlook have eroded investor confidence in the yen’s ability to strengthen in the short term. As Alex Hill of Electus Financial noted, the yen is currently acting as “the whipping boy” of currency markets, with risk appetite favoring Antipodean crosses like Aussie/yen and Kiwi/yen heading into 2026.

BOJ Expected to Hike, but Future Path Is Murky

The BOJ is anticipated to raise rates in December, marking a historic shift away from its ultra-loose monetary stance. However, uncertainty looms over the central bank's forward guidance. Governor Kazuo Ueda faces the difficult task of managing market expectations amid ongoing fiscal stimulus and mixed economic signals. While some investors are positioned for further tightening, others remain cautious due to the BOJ’s traditionally conservative policy evolution.

At the same time, fiscal expansion measures including those aimed at bolstering household spending and industrial output are complicating the inflation outlook. These factors introduce ambiguity into the causal link between policy normalization and yen appreciation, making it difficult for traders to commit to a long yen position.

Markets Hold Steady Ahead of Fed Decision

In broader currency markets, the U.S. dollar was steady ahead of the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated policy announcement. A 25-basis-point rate cut is almost fully priced in by markets, but attention is now turning to the tone of Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference and the updated “dot plot,” which outlines the projected rate path through 2026.

The dollar index held firm at 99.23, while the euro traded at $1.1625 and sterling at $1.3301. Investors are particularly sensitive to the risk of a “hawkish cut,” in which the Fed lowers rates but signals a pause or slower pace of easing going forward. As BNY’s John Velis pointed out, Powell’s press conferences have sometimes diverged in tone from official statements, creating volatility.

Rate Cut Expectations Recalibrated as Economy Holds Up

Recent data showing steady U.S. job openings and moderate inflation have led investors to dial back expectations for aggressive Fed easing in 2026. Despite the Fed's dovish bias this year, lingering inflation concerns and a resilient labor market have prompted some policymakers to strike a more cautious tone.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, considered a frontrunner for the Fed chair role in 2026, commented this week that there is “plenty of room” to cut rates further but only if inflation remains in check. His remarks reinforce the conditional nature of future rate moves, hinging on whether inflation stays near current levels or accelerates.

Currency markets are entering a critical juncture as the Fed prepares to cut rates and the BOJ inches toward policy normalization. The yen’s current weakness highlights the market’s skepticism about Japan’s ability to tighten meaningfully, especially amid global yield disparities and domestic uncertainties. Meanwhile, the dollar remains resilient, buoyed by cautious optimism about U.S. economic strength. Traders will be watching the Fed’s messaging closely not just the rate cut, but the signal it sends for 2026 as the final tone of the year’s global monetary policy is set.

Source: Reuters

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Political

A New Line of Attack as Trump Targets the Federal Reserve

President Donald Trump introduced a new controversy into U.S. monetary politics on Tuesday, asserting that all four of President Joe Biden’s Federal Reserve appointments were signed by an autopen rather than by Biden himself. The claim was presented without evidence, echoing Trump’s ongoing narrative that autopen-authorized documents from his predecessor are invalid. The allegations emerged as Trump spoke in Mount Pocono, Pennsylvania, during a campaign-style speech focused on the economy and inflation pressures.

Trump implied that the Fed Chair himself Jerome Powell could be among those whose appointment documents were signed mechanically. Although Powell was originally appointed by Trump, he was reappointed by Biden in 2021, a point Trump used rhetorically to widen the scope of his accusation. His comments revive his long-standing criticism of Powell’s leadership, particularly on interest rate decisions, which Trump has repeatedly argued were implemented too slowly.

Autopen Claims and Their Political Resonance

Trump’s suggestion that Biden’s appointees “are not authorized to be there” highlights a political strategy built on undermining the legitimacy of institutions that shape economic policy. The lack of evidence underscores that the claim functions less as a legal argument and more as a political provocation aimed at reshaping public perception of the Fed’s independence. The causal relationship here is political rather than administrative: by portraying the appointments as potentially illegitimate, Trump seeks to reinforce the narrative that the central bank has operated improperly under his predecessor’s influence.

This is particularly significant given the timing. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to announce its third consecutive rate cut on Wednesday. Trump has long pressured the Fed to lower borrowing costs, and the appointment controversy adds another layer of pressure on Powell’s leadership as markets brace for the decision.

Fed Governance Under Scrutiny

The individuals potentially implicated by Trump’s remarks include Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Governor Michael Barr, and Governor Lisa Cook all Biden appointees. These members have participated fully in interest rate deliberations, and the assertion that they may not be legitimately seated could cast a political shadow over upcoming monetary policy decisions.

Trump questioned his aides publicly during the speech, asking them to verify whether the autopen had been used, and specifically called on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to investigate. His public questioning in real time emphasizes the performative nature of the accusation. It serves to inject uncertainty into the institutional stability of the Fed while reinforcing Trump’s campaign messaging surrounding administrative competence and economic stewardship.

A Collision of Politics and Monetary Policy

This episode arrives at a moment when the Fed is facing an internally divided committee, elevated inflation expectations, and the challenge of signaling future policy without reliable economic data after a lengthy government shutdown. Before the latest controversy, the Fed was already expected to deliver a cautious rate cut, potentially accompanied by hawkish guidance. Trump’s remarks add a political dimension that may heighten scrutiny of the central bank’s independence at a critical juncture.

The correlation between Trump’s political strategy and the timing of his accusations is clear: raising questions about the legitimacy of the Fed's leadership may shape public expectations and influence narratives around economic conditions as the U.S. heads into an election cycle. However, any direct causal impact on monetary policy remains unlikely, as the Fed operates under institutional norms that shield decision-making from political claims.

Trump’s autopen accusation introduces a new layer of uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve at a pivotal economic moment. While there is no evidence to support the claim, the political implications are significant: the remarks signal renewed efforts to question the legitimacy of Biden-era governance, exert pressure on Jerome Powell, and reshape the political context surrounding interest rate policy. As the Fed prepares to announce its next move, these comments underscore the increasingly intertwined nature of monetary policy and political rhetoric in the United States.

Source: CNBC

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Economic

Consumer Inflation Picks Up, but Producer Deflation Persists

China’s economic outlook presents a conflicting narrative as consumer inflation climbed to 0.7% in November the highest since February 2024 while producer prices continued their slide, declining 2.2% year-on-year. This divergence reflects the uneven effects of Beijing’s policy tools: targeted consumption support has had localized success, but industrial pricing power remains weak amid sluggish domestic demand and global trade frictions.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) attributed the CPI rise mainly to a rebound in food prices, particularly after October’s 2.9% decline. Notably, home appliance and clothing prices rose 4.9% and 2% respectively, likely due to state-backed consumption incentives. However, headline CPI still contracted 0.1% month-on-month, falling short of expectations, which indicates fading post-holiday momentum.

Core Inflation Signals Stability, Not Strength

Core inflation, excluding food and energy, held steady at 1.2% for the second month in a row. This consistency suggests that underlying domestic demand is stabilizing but not accelerating. This is consistent with a correlation not necessarily a causation between targeted fiscal stimulus and modest price firming in sectors like retail and durable goods.

The data paints a picture of partial success: while prices in some consumer sectors are responding to policy stimulus, the broader disinflationary trend remains intact. The continued softness in monthly CPI and the limited breadth of price increases indicate that China’s recovery remains fragile and narrowly based.

Factory-Gate Prices Show Deepening Deflation

More troubling for policymakers is the persistence of factory-gate deflation. Producer prices have now been in negative territory for four straight years, with November’s 2.2% fall deeper than expected. Coal mining and oil/gas extraction prices plunged 11.8% and 10.3%, respectively, pointing to excess industrial capacity, weak energy demand, and falling global commodity benchmarks.

This deepening deflation in upstream sectors reveals a causal relationship between weak construction/housing demand and the industrial sector’s pricing weakness. Despite the resilience of export volumes bolstered by pivoting away from U.S. markets internal imbalances continue to weigh on the supply chain.

Structural Weaknesses Drag on Growth Outlook

China’s broader economic challenges particularly the property downturn and weak employment growth remain central risks to inflation stabilization. Economists argue that these structural drags are likely to maintain downward pressure on both consumer sentiment and industrial profitability, raising the likelihood of sustained deflation risks in 2026 unless addressed through deeper reforms or broader fiscal support.

While China is still on track to meet its “around 5%” GDP target for 2025, primarily due to strong trade performance and manufacturing shipments to non-U.S. markets, the domestic demand side remains structurally subdued. With the Politburo identifying demand expansion and supply rebalancing as 2026 priorities, there is acknowledgment of the need to restore household confidence and economic balance.

Policy Outlook: Limited Tools, Greater Expectations

Although Beijing maintains a bias toward easing, there is increasing evidence that policymakers are reluctant to implement large-scale, broad-based stimulus. Goldman Sachs economist Lisheng Wang noted that authorities may need to reinforce their pro-growth messaging and possibly scale up interventions, particularly if the property sector’s drag deepens.

Markets are now focused on the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, expected to clarify fiscal and monetary policy direction for 2026. While official targets will not be released until March, this meeting is seen as crucial for signaling how aggressively Beijing is willing to counteract internal deflationary forces and meet its growth ambitions.

China’s November inflation data underscores the complex balancing act facing policymakers. Rising consumer prices hint at the limited success of targeted stimulus, while deeper producer deflation signals unresolved structural weakness. The coexistence of headline inflation and industrial deflation creates a contradictory environment that complicates policy design for 2026. As domestic demand recovery remains uneven, policymakers must navigate carefully between maintaining credibility, stimulating consumption, and preventing industrial stagnation all while managing geopolitical tensions and global economic headwinds.

Source: CNBC

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Markets Prepare for a Dovish Move with a Hawkish Message

As the U.S. Federal Reserve concludes its final policy meeting of 2025, the markets are nearly unanimous in pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut to a new target range of 3.5% to 3.75%. However, the optimism may be short-lived. Despite the expected easing, analysts and traders are increasingly discussing the likelihood of a “hawkish cut” a reduction in interest rates that is accompanied by cautious forward guidance or signals of a potential pause in 2026.

This scenario, if realized, could challenge bullish sentiment by suggesting that the path of monetary easing may not be as aggressive or prolonged as previously expected. The CME FedWatch tool shows an 88.6% probability of a cut, indicating the move is already priced into equities. Any shift toward policy restraint could therefore trigger disappointment rather than relief.

The Dot Plot and Powell’s Language Hold the Key

Much of the market reaction will hinge on the Fed’s updated “dot plot” its projection of future interest rate moves as well as Jerome Powell’s tone during the press conference. If the plot shows a flat or higher expected rate path for 2026, and if Powell emphasizes inflation vigilance or data dependency, traders could interpret the move as a signal that the Fed is nearing the end of its cutting cycle.

This dynamic reveals a causal relationship between forward guidance and asset repricing: rate cuts alone may no longer move markets unless paired with clear dovish momentum. In fact, restraint in the Fed’s outlook or signs of internal division among policymakers may be enough to halt the recent equity rally.

Equities Mixed Ahead of the Decision, While Risk Markets Surge

Ahead of the announcement, U.S. equity indexes reflected caution. The S&P 500 ended mostly flat, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.38%, and the Nasdaq eked out a modest gain of 0.13%. Interestingly, the Russell 2000 small-cap index hit an intraday high, suggesting speculative appetite remains active even as uncertainty builds.

In global markets, Vietnam’s stock market continues to attract attention. The VanEck Vietnam ETF (VNM) is up approximately 62% year-to-date, driven by domestic reforms and trade tailwinds. Analysts suggest the rally may persist into 2026, with the country positioning itself as a beneficiary of supply chain diversification trends.

Geopolitics and Trade Data Add to Crosscurrents

Beyond monetary policy, geopolitical and trade-related developments continue to influence market expectations. The U.S. has adjusted its timeline for Chinese soybean purchases, following slower-than-expected progress. Meanwhile, optimism is building around Nvidia’s potential to sell more advanced AI chips to China. Though the market reaction has been subdued, analysts suggest this could meaningfully improve the company’s revenue outlook in 2026, depending on Beijing’s willingness to buy the newer H200 chip.

As the Fed prepares to cut rates again, the real market driver may not be the rate move itself but the messaging that accompanies it. A hawkish cut one that signals caution or a long pause could dull year-end celebrations, especially if economic projections show a more restrained path for 2026. The equity rally, while still alive, faces a credibility test as central banks signal their next moves with more nuance than force. Investors should remain alert not only to what the Fed does, but what it says and what it signals next.

Source: Bloomberg

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US-Indonesia Trade Pact Faces Collapse Amid Disputes Over Commitments

Initial Breakthrough Undermined by Policy Reversals

Indonesia Denies Reversal, Cites Negotiation Process

Impact on US Regional Trade Strategy

Commitments Under Scrutiny: Tariffs and Digital Trade

Source: Reuters

Gulf Debt Attracts Asian Capital as Investors Seek Stability and Higher Returns

Surge in Bond Issuance Reflects Stronger Ties

Attractive Yields and Robust Demand

IMF Forecasts and Trade Volumes Support Confidence

Changing Allocation Strategies Across Asia

Outlook for Deeper Gulf-Asia Financial Integration

Source: Reuters

Oil Prices Stabilize Amid Supply Glut and Hopes for Ukraine Peace Progress

Crude Prices Steady After Losses, Market Watches for Signals

Ukraine Peace Talks Could Reshape Market Dynamics

U.S. Output Forecast Revised Upward

Source: Reuters

Yen Weakens as Markets Brace for Fed Cut and BOJ Tightening Uncertainty

Yen Slides Amid Diverging Global Rate Paths

BOJ Expected to Hike, but Future Path Is Murky

Markets Hold Steady Ahead of Fed Decision

Rate Cut Expectations Recalibrated as Economy Holds Up

Source: Reuters

Trump Questions Legitimacy of Biden-Era Fed Appointments, Injecting Political Uncertainty Ahead of Rate Decision

A New Line of Attack as Trump Targets the Federal Reserve

Autopen Claims and Their Political Resonance

Fed Governance Under Scrutiny

A Collision of Politics and Monetary Policy

Source: CNBC

China’s Inflation Rebounds While Factory Prices Fall: A Mixed Signal for 2026 Policy Direction

C﻿onsumer Inflation Picks Up, but Producer Deflation Persists

Core Inflation Signals Stability, Not Strength

Factory-Gate Prices Show Deepening Deflation

Structural Weaknesses Drag on Growth Outlook

Policy Outlook: Limited Tools, Greater Expectations

Source: CNBC

Fed’s December Decision May Temper Market Cheers

Markets Prepare for a Dovish Move with a Hawkish Message

The Dot Plot and Powell’s Language Hold the Key

Equities Mixed Ahead of the Decision, While Risk Markets Surge

Geopolitics and Trade Data Add to Crosscurrents

Source: Bloomberg

Risk Disclosure

Consumer Inflation Picks Up, but Producer Deflation Persists