USD/JPY Analysis: Yen Weakens To Two-Month Low

Blue River

Forex

Economic

Technical Analysis

Summary:

As the USD/JPY chart shows, the Japanese yen has weakened sharply at the start of this week. Trading opened with a bullish gap, and today the exchange rate has risen to ¥150.65 per US dollar.

The yen’s decline followed the recent election, during which Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party elected Sanae Takaichi as its new leader, paving the way for her to become the next prime minister. According to Reuters, Takaichi supports the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” strategy, which focuses on stimulating the economy through aggressive spending and ultra-loose monetary policy.

Technical Analysis of the USD/JPY Chart

The political factor has led to a sequence of higher highs and higher lows (A→B→C→D) on the chart – and it is already evident that the next peak, E, will form above the previous one. This suggests that the USD/JPY market has entered an upward trend following a flat phase that was particularly pronounced in August.

At the same time:
→ The A low has a long lower shadow, and the D low shows signs of a double-bottom pattern, indicating strong demand.
→ The ¥149 level may serve as support going forward, marking the edge of the gap.
→ The price has broken above the key psychological level of ¥150 per dollar.
→ These reversal points justify constructing an ascending channel (shown in blue).

The chart highlights the dominance of demand, as the price remains:
→ In the upper half of the channel;
→ Above a curved support line – trajectories of this kind often appear after strong market impulses.

Given the above, it is reasonable to assume that:
→ The USD/JPY rate may continue its upward movement;
→ However, bullish momentum is weakening, as suggested by the potential bearish divergence on the RSI indicator.

It is worth noting that in February and March, the price reversed several times near ¥151 per dollar, which may act as significant resistance – adding weight to the possibility of a corrective move in USD/JPY, perhaps towards the median of the current channel.

Source: FXOpen

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Gold Overtakes LNG and Metallurgical Coal as Top Export

Australia's gold export revenues are expected to rise to A$60 billion ($39.6 billion) in 2025-26, surpassing liquefied natural gas (LNG) as the country's second-largest export commodity, according to a report by the Department of Industry, Science, and Resources. This marks a dramatic shift, with gold prices hitting record highs, driven by factors such as central bank purchases, interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and increasing geopolitical tensions. The surge in gold prices has made it one of the top-performing commodities, with a 50% increase this year alone, reaching over $3,977 per ounce.

Gold's performance is expected to significantly offset declines in other resource revenues, particularly from iron ore. The value of Australia's total resource and energy exports is expected to fall by 4% year-on-year, totaling A$369 billion in 2025-26, with further declines projected for 2026-27. Despite the downturn in other sectors, gold's rise provides a bright spot for Australia's export economy, with projected increases in gold production expected to continue.

Economic Impact and Challenges for Other Commodities

While gold has surged, other key exports like LNG and metallurgical coal have softened, impacted by factors like the weakening of crude oil prices. Iron ore, still Australia's largest export, is facing a drop in prices despite increasing output, as global steel production remains sluggish, particularly in China. The outlook for iron ore prices is expected to ease further in the next financial year, highlighting the challenges facing Australia's broader resource sector.

The global economic uncertainty, trade barriers, and shifting investment patterns continue to weigh heavily on the overall commodity market, affecting revenue growth from metals like lithium and copper. However, the rise in gold prices, alongside other resource exports, helps maintain the resilience of Australia’s export-driven economy.

Source: Bloomberg

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Economic

Inflation Surge Reflects Widespread Price Increases

Vietnam's CPI for the third quarter of 2025 climbed by 3.27% compared to the same period in 2024, marking a notable uptick in inflation. Key contributors to this rise included significant price hikes in housing (up 6.98%), education (3.13%), and healthcare services (12.69%). The surge in education costs, particularly in private schools adjusting tuition fees, stood out, while rising energy and housing costs also significantly impacted overall price levels.

For the month of September alone, CPI increased by 0.42%, driven primarily by broad-based price hikes across most sectors, including food, housing, and transportation. The food sector saw a 0.49% increase, and energy costs, particularly gasoline and gas, contributed to a 0.41% rise in housing and utilities.

Core Inflation Remains Under Control

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 3.19% over the first nine months of 2025, reflecting more manageable price increases in the underlying economy. In September, core inflation grew by 0.20% compared to the previous month. This suggests that despite the pressures from external sectors like food and energy, the broader economy is not yet experiencing runaway inflation.

Experts are optimistic that the current monetary policy is effectively controlling core inflation, with stable policies helping curb excessive price rises in non-food sectors.

External Pressure on Prices: A Push from Costs and Demand

As Vietnam heads into the final months of the year, experts foresee rising pressures from energy prices, exchange rates, and food costs, which could continue to drive inflation. High global energy prices, especially for oil and gas, are contributing to rising input costs across multiple industries. Additionally, increased demand from consumers in the final quarter could lead to further inflationary pressures.

Experts warn that if inflation expectations are not managed carefully, the government may need to adjust monetary policy and interest rates to curb rising costs. Nguyễn Bích Lâm, former Director-General of Vietnam's General Statistics Office, cautioned that Vietnam could face "cost-push inflation" driven by factors like rising electricity, fuel, and education costs, which could significantly affect consumer prices.

The government's ability to balance economic growth while managing inflation will be crucial in the coming months. With rising global energy prices and fluctuating exchange rates, Vietnam will need to ensure that these external shocks do not translate into longer-term inflationary pressures. Policymakers are urged to continue their careful management of monetary policy to avoid an overreaction that could negatively affect economic stability.

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Economic

Commodity

Market Reaction to OPEC+ Supply Increase and Saudi Pricing Strategy

Oil prices showed a slight recovery after two consecutive days of gains. Brent crude was stable near $66 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) remained below $62, following OPEC+'s agreement to increase supply by 137,000 barrels per day. This decision, coupled with Saudi Arabia's unexpected move to keep its prices steady for Asian markets, surprised traders who had anticipated an increase.

The cautious stance from Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, seemed to reflect concerns about potential market instability, despite efforts by OPEC+ to increase output and regain market share.

Concerns Over Oversupply and Demand Weakness

Despite the modest supply increase, analysts continue to express concern over a possible surplus. August and September saw oil prices take losses, primarily driven by fears of an oversupply, as OPEC+ has been steadily increasing production while rival producers in the Americas have also been raising output.

The market is also keeping a close eye on geopolitical risks, such as the ongoing attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, which could potentially disrupt global supplies.

Oil Futures and Market Sentiment

The futures curve for Brent crude shows signs of weaker market conditions. The prompt spread the difference between the nearest futures contracts has narrowed to a 42-cent premium, down from nearly $1 earlier in September. This narrowing indicates that market participants are factoring in a looser near-term balance between supply and demand.

According to Vivek Dhar, an analyst at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, if global inventories increase further and diesel margins weaken, oil prices could stabilize between $60 and $65 per barrel in the short term.

Given the current global production dynamics and geopolitical tensions, oil prices are expected to hover in a narrow range, with market participants carefully monitoring supply and demand fundamentals, particularly in the context of OPEC+'s decisions and broader economic signals.

Source: Bloomberg

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Samantha Luan

Stocks

Forex

Economic

● Novo Nordisk lays off staff at Clayton, NC plant, posts show

● Clayton site crucial for Wegovy production, U.S. expansion

● Clayton layoffs hit front-line manufacturing roles

● Novo announced 9,000 job cuts globally last month

Wegovy-maker Novo Nordisk has laid off dozens of employees at the largest U.S. manufacturing site for its blockbuster obesity and diabetes drugs, a Reuters review of LinkedIn posts showed, a signal of where it is making cuts in a major restructuring under new CEO Mike Doustdar.The previously unreported cuts included staff in manufacturing roles, from quality control to production line technicians, at Novo's major Clayton, North Carolina, plant and other facilities in the state, an analysis of 73 posts and profiles show.

The layoffs, while only a small part of a planned 9,000 job cuts globally, underscore how Novo is cutting back even on frontline production in the top market for Wegovy as it looks to sharpen its focus, trim costs, and claw back lost ground in fierce competition with rival Eli Lilly.The cuts, which follow earlier ones focused on the obesity education team in the U.S., come as the administration of President Donald Trump pressures pharmaceutical companies to expand U.S. drug production and create more domestic jobs.

The Danish drugmaker last year became Europe's most valuable listed company on unprecedented demand for weight-loss drugs before a sharp share price slide as sales growth slowed. It is now trying to turn around its fortunes and reduce costs and staff that bloated as it rode the Wegovy boom.A Novo spokesperson declined a Reuters request for further details beyond last month's global layoffs announcement. "This process takes time and our highest priority is to support our employees," the spokesperson said.

PLANT MAKES WEGOVY, OZEMPIC

The announced wider cuts helped boost Novo's shares, though the company has provided little detail about its plans. It said around 5,000 jobs would be cut in its native Denmark.The North Carolina cuts hit technical manufacturing workers, project coordinators, a strategic communications manager and an HR assistant, the posts revealed. Of the total, 47 directly posted they were looking for work or had been laid off.Novo's Clayton facility makes semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy and diabetes drug Ozempic. It also does manufacturing steps including filling, finishing and packaging the injections. It also will play a key role in producing the new pill version of Wegovy once that becomes available.

CEO Doustdar this month heralded an ongoing $4.1 billion expansion at the North Carolina plant that employed some 2,500 people in 2024 and was expected to add 1,000 more.Reuters could not determine the exact number or the reason for the layoffs in Clayton, which came three weeks after Doustdar announced the broader restructuring.Reuters contacted about 30 of the Novo employees who posted on LinkedIn that they had been laid off. One replied, saying a non-disclosure agreement prevented them from speaking to the media.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

Market Movements in Asia and Japan’s Political Shifts

Asian markets showed mixed but mostly positive results on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 0.8%, reaching a new high of 48,305.98, following the election of Sanae Takaichi as the leader of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Takaichi, likely to become Japan's first female prime minister, is expected to adopt pro-market policies reminiscent of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic approach, boosting investor sentiment.

Despite the optimism, Takaichi faces political challenges within her party and from opposition groups. Investors remain hopeful that her government will stimulate Japan's economy, which has been struggling with persistent stagnation.

Meanwhile, other Asian markets were mixed, with Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipping by 0.3%, while Taiwan’s Taiex surged nearly 2%. Southeast Asian markets were also largely higher.

AI Deals Drive U.S. Market to New Heights

Across the Pacific, the U.S. stock market continued its record-setting rally. The S&P 500 gained 0.4% to close at a fresh high, while the Nasdaq composite climbed 0.7%, driven by excitement over artificial intelligence. OpenAI’s partnership with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), where OpenAI will deploy AMD’s chips for AI infrastructure, resulted in a massive 23.7% jump in AMD’s stock price. OpenAI could also acquire up to 160 million shares of AMD based on specific milestones.

The AI-driven rally, particularly in the semiconductor sector, has pushed the market to new heights, but it has also sparked concerns over potential overvaluation. Nvidia, a leader in AI chips, slipped 1.1% after the AMD announcement, as its dominance in the AI market has drawn scrutiny from analysts.

Other U.S. Developments and Global Oil Prices

In other news, Tesla saw a 5.4% rise, driven by speculation about a new product unveiling. Meanwhile, Verizon Communications dropped 5.1% after its CEO change was announced.

The U.S. government shutdown continues to weigh on investors' minds, but Wall Street has largely remained unaffected, confident that past shutdowns have not had a significant long-term impact on the economy.

In the commodity markets, oil prices rose slightly, with U.S. crude up 19 cents to $61.88 a barrel and Brent crude gaining 20 cents to $65.67. The U.S. dollar edged up slightly to 150.42 yen, while the euro was down to $1.1705.

As political and economic uncertainty looms, investors are keeping a close eye on Takaichi’s policy direction and the ongoing AI developments in the U.S. The markets are also awaiting further details on the impact of the government shutdown and how it might affect investor sentiment moving forward.

Source: AP

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Economic

Commodity

Gold’s Unstoppable Rally

Gold has emerged as the star performer in global financial markets, witnessing a dramatic surge of nearly 50% since the beginning of 2025, marking its most significant increase in over 45 years. Prices have soared past $3,900 per ounce, driven by investors seeking refuge amid rising inflation, a depreciating U.S. dollar, and the global economic fallout from trade wars, particularly under President Trump’s policies.

In September, gold prices spiked by almost 12%, the highest monthly gain since 2011. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, trade tariffs, and geopolitical instability have led to an environment of uncertainty, propelling gold to new record levels.

FOMO and Massive Inflows: The Gold Rush

The surge is fueled by a mix of institutional and retail investors diving into the gold market. According to experts, a fear of missing out (FOMO) is taking hold, with more and more market participants reluctant to ignore gold's rise. “Gold has become too big to ignore," said Luca Paolini, Chief Strategist at Pictet Asset Management, drawing a parallel to the tech stock frenzy in previous years.

In particular, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been a significant driver, with the World Gold Council reporting net inflows of $13.6 billion into gold ETFs in just the past four weeks. The total net investment in gold this year has reached over $60 billion, setting a record for a single calendar year. With ETF holdings now surpassing 3,800 tons of gold, investors are positioning gold as a safe haven from inflation and political instability.

Gold Becomes Part of Long-Term Investment Strategy

Unlike traditional investments such as stocks and bonds, gold is now being viewed as an essential asset for long-term portfolios. Following the global financial crisis, many central banks adopted policies of quantitative easing, which sparked fears of inflation. Despite these fears not materializing as expected, gold has maintained its reputation as a hedge against macroeconomic risks.

This year, gold has gained popularity as investors seek protection from the uncertainty in the bond market. With yields rising due to governments' record borrowing levels, the attraction of fixed-income securities like bonds has diminished, further enhancing gold’s appeal as a diversification tool in investment portfolios.

Shift Away from Traditional Safe Havens

Gold's rally is also partly driven by concerns over government debt and persistent inflation. With governments running massive deficits and central banks under pressure to keep interest rates low, many investors view gold as a safeguard against the erosion of wealth due to inflation.

Francesca Fornasari, a Senior Currency Solutions Director at Insight Investment, highlighted that investors are increasingly looking at gold as a backup against potential risks to the global economy. This shift is a direct response to fears that inflation could spiral out of control if central banks lose their ability to manage it.

Continued Strength in Gold Amid Economic Uncertainty

Despite its meteoric rise, gold remains a key asset in global financial markets, as it continues to provide a hedge against economic and political instability. While traditional safe-haven assets like bonds have lost their appeal, gold’s proven track record and role as a diversification tool make it an increasingly attractive option.

As the year progresses, the outlook for gold remains strong, driven by persistent global economic challenges. With investors focusing on long-term stability, the demand for gold is expected to remain robust, potentially pushing prices higher in the near term.