US Payroll Growth Top Forecasts With Robust 177,000 Addition

Source: finance.yahoo

Bitcoin surges on geopolitical optimism as it has officially broken above $97,000, reaching its highest level in weeks, as optimism around a potential U.S.-China trade breakthrough fuels global risk-on sentiment. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is riding the wave of macroeconomic momentum, institutional inflows, and strategic demand in emerging markets.

“Bitcoin has become a geopolitical barometer,” said analyst Joe Burnett. “When tensions ease or cooperation increases, Bitcoin typically benefits from increased market confidence.”

Bitcoin is now just a few percentage points away from the psychological $100,000 level — a threshold traders believe could trigger a fresh round of institutional inflows.

Why a Trade Deal Could Matter for Bitcoin

The recent surge is largely driven by speculation that the United States and China may be approaching renewed trade negotiations. Markets reacted positively to reports that diplomatic teams are exploring a potential “framework agreement” by June.

Although Polymarket odds place a full deal at just 20%, the possibility of eased tariffs and restored cross-border economic flow is enough to bolster investor confidence across risk assets — Bitcoin included.

“Crypto is a beneficiary of global stability,” said CoinMetrics’ Kyle Waters. “The more predictable the macro backdrop, the more capital is allocated to assets like BTC.”

Institutions and Altcoins Join the Rally

It’s not just Bitcoin that’s booming. Altcoins and AI tokens are gaining significant traction, highlighting broader market confidence.

• Kava Labs surpassed 100,000 users on its decentralized AI platform, drawing institutional interest in transparent AI infrastructure.

• ETH, SOL, and TON all posted 3–6% gains in the past 24 hours.

Meanwhile, BlackRock and Fidelity have reportedly expanded BTC holdings across ETF and trust products, confirming the growing appetite from traditional finance players.

What About Risks?

While Bitcoin’s uptrend is strong, some risks remain:

• A collapse in trade negotiations could trigger a pullback.

• U.S. macro data (jobs, CPI) due next week could sway Fed policy expectations.

• Short-term overbought signals may cause profit-taking around $100K.

“It’s not a straight line to $100K,” warned Alex Krüger. “But we’re entering the stage where dips are getting bought aggressively.”

Can Bitcoin Hit $100K This Month?

The short answer: yes, but cautiously.

With BTC climbing above resistance, macro winds at its back, and ETF inflows rising, the setup is there. What’s missing is a final catalyst — possibly the announcement of a tangible U.S.-China trade agreement or a breakout in altcoin dominance to spread liquidity across the ecosystem.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s latest surge past $97K shows that geopolitics and crypto markets are more intertwined than ever. As global leaders navigate trade diplomacy, Bitcoin remains an asset reflecting investor hope and market uncertainty.

If optimism continues to build, and no black swan events disrupt momentum, Bitcoin at $100K may not just be a dream, but a near-term reality.

FAQs

Why did Bitcoin jump above $97K?

The surge was fueled by optimism around potential U.S.-China trade negotiations, institutional inflows, and macroeconomic stability.

What is the significance of a $100K Bitcoin?

$100,000 is a psychological and technical milestone. Reaching it could attract more institutional investors and reinforce Bitcoin’s status as digital gold.

Are there any risks to Bitcoin’s rally?

Yes. Breakdown in trade talks, unexpected Fed moves, or profit-taking near $100K could cause short-term pullbacks.

What altcoins are also rising?

ETH, SOL, TON, and AI-related tokens like those on Kava Labs’ platform have seen significant gains alongside BTC.

Source: CryptoSlate

The dollar dipped on Friday, with investors nervous about chasing its recent rebound too much further ahead of important U.S. jobs data, but it remained set for a weekly rise against nearly all peers.

The risk-sensitive Aussie and kiwi dollars climbed in Asia trade as European and Asian shares continued a rally that began on Wall Street against the backdrop of updates from China and Japan on tariff discussions with the Donald Trump administration.

And that dollar selling then broadened out into other currencies with the greenback down 0.45% on the Japanese yen at 144.76, the euro up 0.35% at $1.1330 and China's offshore yuan at a near six-month top of 7.225 per dollar.

Nonetheless, the U.S. dollar was still on track for a third straight weekly advance. Alongside U.S. Treasuries and shares, it has bounced from steep declines last month as President Donald Trump's erratic tariff policies drove fears of a recession and sapped confidence in U.S. assets.

"The dollar has benefited from month-end flows," said Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research FX and rates at Societe Generale.

He said the dollar had been supported earlier this week by the Bank of Japan's dovishness on Thursday, as well as strong earnings reports from U.S. tech giants, the rally on Nasdaq (.IXIC), opens new tab and flows into U.S. equities.

"Maybe the whole 'sell America' story looked a little bit overdone. And we saw Japanese investors also buying the most foreign bonds in eight weeks, tempering expectations that everybody in the world is going to sell Treasuries," Broux said.

Shaping moves on Friday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News late on Thursday that talks with China will come up soon. His comments came on the heels of a Chinese state media report seen as a signal of Beijing's openness to trade negotiations.

Beijing was "evaluating" an offer from Washington to hold talks over Trump's tariffs, China's Commerce Ministry said on Friday.

The China-exposed Australian dollar rose 0.77% to $0.6432.

Separately, Japan's top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said he deepened talks on trade, non-tariff measures and economic security cooperation with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington on Thursday.

And Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said Japan could use its $1 trillion-plus holdings of U.S. Treasuries as leverage in trade talks with Washington.

Market participants are now looking to the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report at 1230 GMT for an indication on when the Federal Reserve will resume cutting rates. Wall Street economists are forecasting 130,000 new jobs created last month, compared with a print of 228,000 seen in March.

Many investors expect Trump's chaotic trade policy to hurt the U.S. economy, but until now it has been too early for this to be seen in hard economic data. It is likely too early for the payrolls to offer much more than a hint either, but it could help.

Societe Generale's Broux said a number far from the consensus would actually be better, helping clarify whether the U.S. was heading for a recession, which would mean more Fed rate cuts, or would avoid a sharp slowdown.

In terms of currencies, "the question is whether we sell that dollar rally again, because that has been the modus operandi in FX now for a couple of weeks", he said.

Source: Reuters

Spain suffered several power glitches and industry officials sounded repeated warnings about the instability of its power grid in the build up to its catastrophic blackout on Monday.

The government has ordered several investigations into the blackout. Industry experts say that whatever the cause, the mass outage and earlier smaller incidents indicate the Spanish power grid faces challenges amid the boom of renewables.

A surplus of energy supply can disrupt power grids in the same way as a deficit, and grid operators must maintain balance.

In the week before the blackout, Spain saw several power surges and cuts.

A power cut disrupted railway signals and stranded at least 10 high-speed trains near Madrid on April 22. Transport Minister Oscar Puente said excessive voltage in the power network had triggered disconnections to protect substations.

On the same day, Repsol's (REP.MC), opens new tab Cartagena refinery saw its operations disrupted by power supply problems.

The grid suffered from significant instability in the days before the blackout, said Antonio Turiel, a senior researcher with the Spanish National Research Council.

Spain's grid operator REE did not reply to a request for comment. Spain's energy ministry declined to comment.

Spain has ordered inquiries involving government, security agencies and technical experts. A high court judge has launched a probe into whether a cyber attack was to blame.

The Spanish power grid had been on a knife edge for several days due to power system imbalances, said Carlos Cagigal, an energy expert who advises private firms on renewable and industrial projects.

Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and power grid operator REE's chief Beatriz Corredor have both said record levels of renewable energy were not to blame for Monday's blackout.

But REE and Europe's power grid lobby ENTSO-E had both previously warned that the rapid rise of power generation from renewables could destabilise the grid.

Small renewable generators were putting extra pressure on the infrastructure, REE said in a 2024 report, and REE's parent company Redeia (REDE.MC), opens new tab said in February the grid lacked information from smaller plants to be able to operate in real time.

INCREASING RISK OF POWER CUTS

The risk of power cuts is rising, Redeia warned because the closure of coal, gas-fired and nuclear plants reduces the grid's balancing capacities.

"This could increase the risk of operational incidents that could affect supply and the company's reputation," the company said.

Solar farms generate direct current (DC) power which doesn't have a frequency like alternating current (AC) power generated by conventional plants. DC power needs to be converted to AC in inverters to be transmitted via grids.

If solar generation drops, the grid requires backstop AC power to prevent frequency dropping below dangerous levels after which most power contributors disconnect from the grid.

"Shutting down the nuclear plants may put electricity supply at risk," REE's former chair Jordi Sevilla told Spanish news website Voxpopuli in January. Spain plans to shut down all seven nuclear reactors by 2035.

The planned closure of two nuclear reactors at southwestern Spain's Almaraz plant, starting in 2027, will increase the risks of blackouts, European power lobby ENTSO-E said in April.

REE responded to ENTSO-E by saying there was no risk of a blackout and it could guarantee stable energy supply.

Less than a week later, Almaraz temporarily shut down the two units citing abundant wind energy supply as making operations uneconomic. One unit was still offline on Monday.

The blackout across Spain and Portugal knocked out communications and transport systems, shut down industry and offices and brought commerce to a virtual standstill.

The blackout could have shaved 1.6 billion euros ($1.82 billion), or 0.1%, off GDP, Spain's business lobby estimated.

Source: Reuters

U.S. stock index futures rose on Friday as hopes of a de-escalation in a punishing U.S.-China trade war offset disappointing earnings updates from Apple and Amazon.

Global stocks rose as Beijing said on Friday it was "evaluating" an offer from Washington to hold talks over U.S. President Donald Trump's 145% tariffs on China.

Their back-and-forth over tariffs has kept investors on edge, with both sides unwilling to be seen backing down in a trade war that has roiled global markets and upended supply chains.

Still, Trump's reversal of some tariffs on global trade partners has helped U.S. stock indexes recover sharply from recent losses. The tech-heavy Nasdaq closed on Thursday at levels last seen before April 2, dubbed "Liberation Day", when Trump unveiled massive global tariffs.

Despite signs of reprieve on the trade front, the rapid shifts in U.S. tariff policies have forced some companies to warn of business impacts or pull earnings forecasts amid worries of higher costs and a hit to economic growth.

Apple slid 2.9% in premarket trading after the iPhone maker trimmed its share buyback program by $10 billion and CEO Tim Cook told analysts that tariffs could add about $900 million in costs this quarter.

Amazon.com was down 1.6% after the company forecast second-quarter operating income below estimates as concerns about tariffs and its impact on consumer spending clouded the outlook.

At 06:09 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis rose 224 points, or 0.55%. Nasdaq 100 E-minis climbed 63.25 points, or 0.32%, and S&P 500 E-minis were up 26.75 points, or 0.48%.

Investors also await the Labor Department's closely watched employment report at 8:30 a.m. ET (1230 GMT) for clues on the health of the U.S. labor market.

The report is expected to show nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 jobs last month after rising by 228,000 in March. Part of the anticipated step-down in payrolls would be due to the fading boost from warmer weather.

Average hourly earnings are forecast to have risen by 0.3%, matching March's gain.

Among other stocks, Block slumped 21.3% after cutting its profit forecast for 2025 and missing estimates for quarterly earnings, as the payments firm grapples with muted consumer spending.

Airbnb dipped 4.5% after the vacation rental platform forecast second-quarter revenue largely below Wall Street estimates and signaled softening demand in the U.S.

Source: Yahoo Finance