US Congress Returns, With One Month to Avert Government Shutdown

Economic

Forex

Summary:

The U.S. Congress returns on Tuesday with less than a month left to perform one of its core functions - keeping federal agencies funded and averting a partial government shutdown - a job that it has struggled to perform in recent years.

The chamber's bitter partisan divides have hardened in the first year of President Donald Trump's new administration, which has angered Democratic lawmakers by deciding not to spend some money previously approved under bipartisan deals, as well as the July passage of a tax-cut bill that nonpartisan analysts said could cause more than 10 million low-income Americans to lose healthcare coverage.

Lawmakers' work on agreeing on the roughly $1.8 trillion in discretionary spending in the $7 trillion federal budget will be further complicated by expected fights over the release of information related to the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, a former friend of Trump's, and the administration's surge of federal agents and National Guard into the capital.

There have been 14 partial government shutdowns since 1981, most of which lasted only a day or two. The most recent stretched over 34 days in December 2018 into January 2019 during Trump's first term.

Trump's Republicans hold a 219-212 majority in the House of Representatives and a 53-47 edge in the Senate, though that chamber's rules require 60 votes to pass most bills, meaning that seven Democrats' support would be needed to pass a funding bill. A preemptive blame game started this summer over which party would be faulted if Congress fails and a partial government shutdown occurs.

Before Republicans approved Trump’s request for a $9 billion cut to foreign aid and public media, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer in July said the majority should not expect Democrats to “act as business as usual” in the bipartisan appropriations process due to the party cutting back on funding already approved by Congress.

Schumer faced howls of outrage from some in his party in March after providing the votes for a continuing resolution to keep the government funded, arguing at the time that allowing a government shutdown would have been more damaging.

The Democrats’ full strategy this time around has not yet been defined, but the Democratic leaders have requested a meeting with their Republican counterparts to discuss the deadline. Some Democrats want assurances by Republicans that they will not unilaterally cut funding if more requests are made by the administration.

Schumer on Tuesday accused Trump of "waging an all-out war against Congress’ Article I authority and the constitutional balance of power," adding, "Senate Republicans must decide: stand up for the legislative branch or enable Trump’s slide toward authoritarianism."

In an earlier floor speech, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said: “I hope that the process will continue in a bipartisan way as we move toward the September deadline."

Some Democrats, including Senator Elizabeth Warren, are betting the conservatives would be blamed and that the funding deadline should be used as leverage.

“In September, the Republicans are going to need to get a budget through to keep the government open and to do that they are going to need some Democratic votes,” Warren said at an August rally in Nebraska. Referring to the sweeping tax-cut bill, she added, “You want my vote -- and I hope the votes of the rest of these Democrats – then by golly, you can restore healthcare for 10 million Americans!”

The U.S. federal debt is $37.25 trillion, according to the Treasury Department. It has continued to grow under Republican and Democratic administrations as the U.S. Congress continues to authorize the federal government to spend more money than it takes in.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

U.S. futures point lower ahead of the start of a holiday-truncated trading week, with much of the focus set to revolve around upcoming economic data that could provide more clarity around the trajectory of U.S. interest rates. Swiss food titan Nestle’s shares dip after the abrupt departure of its CEO. Elsewhere, gold touches an all-time peak amid expectations for lower U.S. rates and trade-related uncertainty.

Futures slip

U.S. stock futures dropped on Tuesday, as traders returned for a week shortened by a holiday but not devoid of potentially consequential events.

By 03:37 ET (07:37 GMT), the Dow futures contract had fallen by 113 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 futures had shed 15 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had declined by 65 points, or 0.3%.

The main averages on Wall Street were closed on Monday in observance of the Labor Day holiday. At the end of the last trading day on Friday, stocks dipped, weighed down partially by declines in artificial intelligence-related names.

But, despite August being a traditionally difficult for stocks, the S&P 500 gained 1.9% for the month, bringing its year-to-date advance to roughly 10% and putting the benchmark index not far from record highs. It was the latest leg higher in what has become an extended recovery in equities since an April swoon sparked by concerns over sweeping U.S. tariffs.

ISM manufacturing PMI ahead

Investors are now turning their gazes back to the economic calendar, which will be headlined this week by Friday’s release of the ever-important monthly nonfarm payrolls report.

Analysts have said that a soft or tepid reading for August -- which would come after an unexpectedly weak return in July and deep downward revisions to the preceding two months -- could further cement bets that the Federal Reserve will ratchet down interest rates at its next policy meeting on Sept. 16-17.

Economists expect the U.S. to have added 74,000 roles, versus in 73,000 in July.

In the meantime, markets will be keeping tabs on other indicators, including a gauge of U.S. manufacturing sector activity on Tuesday from the Institute for Supply Management. The August measure is tipped to come in at 49.0, compared to 48.0 in July yet still below the 50-point mark denoting contraction.

Nestle CEO ousted

Switzerland-listed shares in Nestle (SIX:NESN) dropped by more than 3% in morning dealmaking on Tuesday after the food giant announced the sudden departure of its chief executive for the second time in a year.

CEO Laurent Freixe was ousted from the post on Monday in the wake of a board meeting to discuss the findings of an investigation into an undisclosed romantic relationship with a subordinate that violated the firm’s code of conduct.

Freixe is being replaced with immediate effect by Philipp Navratil, a veteran company insider who has headed up its Nespresso coffee division, Nestle said.

The shake-up may present fresh headwinds to a business already grappling with several years of muted sales volumes and share price declines, as well as the dismissal of former CEO Mark Schneider a year ago. Long-time Chair Paul Bulcke has also said he will step down in 2026.

Gold hits record high

Gold prices touched a new record high on Tuesday, as bullion’s longstanding safe-haven appeal was burnished by wagers of U.S. interest rate cuts and murkiness around U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.

Broader metal prices also notched strong gains, with silver surging to a near 14-year high, while platinum remained in sight of a 11-year high. This came as the dollar sank to a five-week low on expectations of falling U.S. borrowing costs.

Non-yielding assets such as metals tend to benefit from lower rates, given that they make commodities appear more attractive over investing in government debt.

Spot gold surged 0.8% to a record high of $3,508.54 an ounce, while Gold Futures for December hit a peak of $3,578.20/oz. Spot prices curbed some gains to trade 0.2% higher at $3,482.28/oz by 03:27 ET.

Gold’s latest round of gains was spurred by heightened uncertainty over Trump’s trade tariffs, after an appeals court ruled last week that they were illegal. While the court said Trump’s tariffs could remain in place until mid-October, the president criticized the decision and said he would challenge the ruling in the Supreme Court.

Oil pushes higher

Oil prices rose, extending the previous session’s gains, as traders weighed the risk of fresh supply disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict against expanding output from OPEC+ members.

As of 03:32 ET (07:32 GMT), Brent oil futures expiring in November gained 0.9% to $68.74 per barrel, after jumping more than 1% on Monday.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures did not settle on Monday due to the U.S. holiday, and traded 1.0% higher from their Friday close at $65.24 per barrel.

Hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal have dimmed after Trump last month urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin to hold direct talks before considering a trilateral summit hosted by Washington.

The intensified airstrikes have raised the chances of more sanctions against Russia, potentially leading to supply disruptions, which could push prices higher. The U.S. and its allies are also stepping up enforcement of secondary sanctions on Russian oil, though the measures have so far had limited impact on flows to Asia.

Partly offsetting these risks was increased production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) in recent months, which has raised worries over a possible supply glut. Traders are now looking ahead to the Sept. 7 meeting of OPEC+ for signals on its output policy.

Source: investing

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Bond

Forex

UK 30-year bond yields hit their highest level in 27 years on Tuesday after the government’s surprise reshuffle.

The 30-year gilt yield hit 5.71% - the highest since 1998. Bond yields move inversely to bond prices.

Meanwhile, sterling was down 1% against the dollar at 1.3415, on track for its biggest one-day decline since April.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, said the key driver of weakness in the bond market could be a delayed reaction to the government reshuffle on Monday.

"The Prime Minister beefed up his economic team in the lead up to the budget. This has not gone down too well, with concerns that there is still a strategy void when it comes to the economy, as the government struggles to deliver the growth that it promised, at the same time as borrowing surges," she said.

Brooks said there could also be some concern that Chancellor Rachel Reeves is being "managed out".

"The last time there was a threat to Reeves’ position, back in early July, bond yields jumped as the market worried that she could be replaced by a more left-leaning member of the Labour party," she noted.

Neil Wilson, investor strategist at Saxo UK, said: "Gilt yields in the UK rose after the prime minister reshuffled the deck, seemingly sidelining his iron chancellor Reeves by poaching her deputy. If the Treasury won’t break the rules, then perhaps Number 10 can? The market move was a sign that investors do not have confidence the Treasury will stick to its strict borrowing rules.

"Long-dated gilt yields are now trading close to 27-year highs again with the 30-year above 5.7%. 30-year yields at their highest in almost three decades is not a good look for the Labour government and underscores that there is little fiscal or economic credibility left. Sterling has shipped a mighty 1% or more this morning as a result."

It wasn’t just UK bond yields making sharp moves on Tuesday, however, with European bonds yields also jumping to multi-year highs.

Yields on 30-year German, French, and Dutch bonds reached their highest levels since the Euro crisis in 2011.

Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid said: "Even in orderly markets, we’re seeing a slow-moving vicious circle: rising debt concerns push yields higher, worsening debt dynamics, which in turn push yields higher again.

"The immediate catalyst has been the upcoming no-confidence vote in the French government, scheduled for Monday, 8 September. French 10-year yields rose 2.5bps to 3.53% yesterday- their highest since mid-March - despite no fresh news."

Source: sharecast

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Warren Takunda

Economic

London stocks were still weaker by midday on Tuesday, while long-term borrowing costs hit a 27-year high and sterling tumbled.

The FTSE 100 was down 0.5% at 9,153.67, while the 30-year gilt yield hit 5.71% - the highest since 1998. Bond yields move inversely to bond prices.

At the same time, sterling was down 1.2% against the dollar at 1.3382.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, said the key driver of weakness in the bond market could be a delayed reaction to the government reshuffle on Monday.

Brooks said there could also be some concern that Chancellor Rachel Reeves is being "managed out".

It wasn’t just UK bond yields making sharp moves on Tuesday, however, with European bonds yields jumping to multi-year highs.

In equity markets, retailers were under the cosh, with Marks & Spencer, Dunelm and B&M all in the red.

British Gas owner Centrica fell even as it said two UK nuclear power stations in which it has a 20% share had been given life extensions of a year. Heysham 1 and Hartlepool are now expected to generate electricity until March 2028, one year later than previously expected.

British American Tobacco was knocked lower by a downgrade to ‘underperform’ from ‘sector perform’ at RBC Capital Markets, which said profit expectations for the company's New Categories are "seriously overblown".

Ithaca Energy tumbled after major shareholders Delek and Eni sold just over 49.6m shares in the company in a placing.

Housebuilder Taylor Wimpey was knocked lower by a downgrade to ‘neutral’ at Bank of America, with Barratt Redrow, Persimmon and Berkeley also lower.

On the upside, precious metals miner Fresnillo shot to the top of the FTSE 100, while gold miner Hochschild also gained as gold prices hit a new all-time high.

Harbour Energy was boosted by an initiation at ‘overweight’ by JPMorgan, whose stance was underpinned by "scale-driven cost reductions, free cash flow resiliency, and a strong balance sheet" which "leaves runway for an additional buyback program in 2026".

Source: Sharecast

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Glendon

Economic

Forex

Global bond markets came under pressure in European session, led by a sharp selloff in long-dated UK gilts. Yield on UK 30-year surged past 5.65% to its highest in 27 years, breaking above the peak set in April. Investors are increasingly concerned that Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government may abandon fiscal discipline ahead of the upcoming Budget.

French bonds also came under strain, with the 30-year yield climbing to its highest since 2009 as Prime Minister François Bayrou scrambles to shore up parliamentary support ahead of next week’s confidence vote. U.S. Treasury yields are climbing in tandem, with the 30-year approaching 5%—a level last seen in July.

The catalyst in the UK was Starmer’s reshuffle of his Downing Street team, including the appointment of Darren Jones as chief secretary to the Treasury to manage delivery of priorities. The changes, intended to strengthen economic governance ahead of the Budget, have instead rattled markets, with traders worried about a lack of coherent strategy to revive growth while borrowing continues to swell.

Adding to the unease, speculation has resurfaced that Chancellor Rachel Reeves could be sidelined. Markets have been sensitive to such risks before—when questions arose over Reeves’ position in July, gilt yields spiked on fears she might be replaced by a more left-leaning figure less committed to fiscal prudence. The latest political maneuvering has revived those anxieties.

The immediate market reaction suggests little confidence in the government’s direction. Investors are interpreting the moves as paving the way for more gilt issuance, higher inflation, and weaker commitment to fiscal rules. Expectations are building that the Budget could lean heavily on borrowing to fund spending promises rather than tax hikes, amplifying the pressure on long-dated debt.

In currency markets, Sterling has been the weakest performer of the day, weighed down by fiscal and political concerns. Yen and New Kiwi followed on the downside, while Ddollar rebounded on support from rising Treasury yields. Loonie and Swiss Franc also gained, while Euro and Aussie traded mid-pack.

In Europe at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.60%. DAX is down -1.57%. CAC is down -0.31%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.077 at 4.831. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.044 at 2.794. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.29%. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.47%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.45%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.52%. Japan 10-year JBG yield fell -0.019 to 1.606.

ECB’s Schnabel sees no need for more easing, eyes higher inflation risks

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel pushed back against further monetary easing, telling Reuters that policy maybe already “mildly accommodative” and that she sees no case for another rate cut at present. She noted that the economy has held up better than expected, underpinned by robust domestic demand and bolstered by a “significant fiscal impulse” from Germany’s investment plans in infrastructure and defense.

Schnabel also argued that global tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are likely “on net inflationary”, even without EU retaliation. “If you have an increase in input prices globally due to tariffs, and these propagate through global production networks, this will increase inflationary pressures everywhere,” she said.

Schnabel also dismissed concerns that a stronger Euro might weigh heavily on price dynamics. She said currency appreciation tied to improving Eurozone growth prospects would have a more limited pass-through, adding, “I am less concerned about exchange rate developments.” She stressed that she sees little chance of inflation expectations de-anchoring to the downside after years of price overshoots.

Looking forward, Schnabel warned that a more fragmented world with tighter supply chains, higher fiscal spending, and aging populations is structurally inflationary. In such an environment, she argued, “central banks around the world start to hike interest rates again may come earlier than many people currently think.”

Eurozone CPI ticks up to 2.1%, core stays 2.3%

Eurozone headline inflation inched higher in August, with the flash CPI rising to 2.1% yoy from 2.0% yoy, in line with expectations. The increase came largely from a slower drag in energy prices, though food and services inflation moderated slightly from July levels.

Core CPI, excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, remained unchanged at 2.3% yoy, defying expectations of a slight dip to 2.2% yoy. The measure has now held steady since May.

By component, food, alcohol and tobacco continued to drive the highest annual inflation rate at 3.2%, followed by services at 3.1%. Non-energy industrial goods stayed muted at 0.8%, while energy prices fell -1.9% from a year earlier. The data suggest inflation continues to stabilize near the ECB’s 2% target.

BoJ’s Himino: Risk of larger-than-expected tariff impact warrants focus

BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino warned in a speech today that U.S. trade policies are likely to weigh on Japan’s economy, with overseas slowdowns and weaker corporate profits feeding through domestically. While accommodative financial conditions should cushion the hit, Himino said the baseline scenario is for Japan’s growth to “moderate,” with downside risks from tariffs deserving greater attention.

Looking further ahead, Himino said Japan’s growth should eventually recover as overseas economies return to a more stable expansion path. But in the near term, the tariff shock remains the key uncertainty, with the risk of a “larger-than-expected impact” now seen as more pressing than the chance of a mild outcome.

On inflation, Himino noted that headline prices remain above the BoJ’s 2% target, by a “considerable margin”, due in part to surging rice prices and spillovers to other goods. However, he stressed headline inflation is expected to “decline in due course” as food-related effects fade. Underlying inflation, meanwhile, remains below target but is steadily rising, despite some potential “temporary halts”, supported by a wage–price feedback loop.

Summing up, Himino said the BoJ’s baseline scenario assumes headline inflation will cool, while core prices continue to edge toward 2%. If that path holds, it would be appropriate for the central bank to keep raising rates gradually, fine-tuning monetary accommodation in line with improving economic activity and stable price gains.

EUR/GBP Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8632; (P) 0.8652; (R1) 0.8665;

EUR/GBP’s strong rally today solidifies the case that corrective pattern from 0.8752 has completed at 0.8595. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 0.8752. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 0.8221. Next target is 0.8867 fibonacci level. For now, further rise is expected as long as 0.8636 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the structure from 0.8221 medium term bottom are not impulsive enough to suggest that it’s reversing the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). But even if it’s a correction, further rise could still be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Nevertheless, sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8513) will argue that the pattern has completed and bring retest of 0.8221 low.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

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Stocks

Economic

MARKET WRAPS

Indexes in Europe were mixed and gold prices hit a record, as Trump's bid to reshape the Federal Reserve sowed extra uncertainty about prospective interest-rate cuts.

Pepperstone said the trend in gold prices reflected uncertainty surrounding factors including resurging inflation concerns and anticipation ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls report.

"In this sense, gold has become a barometer of market unease and uncertainty across inflation, monetary policy and employment."

In the U.K. yields on 30-year gilts rose to their highest level since 1998 and sterling fell to a nearly four-week low against the euro and a nearly one-week low against the dollar, as investors worried about the sustainability of U.K. public finances.

"We're seeing a slow-moving vicious circle: rising debt concerns push yields higher, worsening debt dynamics, which in turn push yields higher again," Deutsche Bank said.

Concerns about the country's public finances grew after the Prime Minister reshuffled members of his cabinet on Monday.

Stocks to Watch

Societe Generale's car-leasing unit Ayven--of which it owns 53%--could contribute nearly 1 billion euros to the bank's bottom line in the coming years, Jefferies said, adding that the purchase of minorities could lift group return on tangible equity to 13% in 2027.

U.S. Markets:

Stock futures edged down as investors await a ruling on whether Trump's bid to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook is legitimate.

Meanwhile, Trump has nominated Stephen Miran, a close adviser who has backed rate cuts, to a seat on the Fed's board. If Miran is confirmed quickly enough after a hearing on Thursday, he could join in time for the September policy meeting.

Forex:

The euro fell against the dollar as investors awaited eurozone inflation data and was likely to continue trading within a range of $1.1650-$1.1750 range for now, ING said, adding that the biggest risk to the euro-dollar exchange rate was probably long positioning.

"But in theory U.S. jobs releases this week still have the potential to unlock some upside."

Lombard Odier said the dollar was likely to weaken further against major and emerging market currencies and forecast EUR/USD at 1.22 a year from now.

Previously extended short positions on the dollar have normalized, it said, and the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates at a time of policy rate stability for other major central banks (except for the BOE) will diminish the dollar's yield advantage against both major and emerging currencies.

Also expected emerging market economic resilience and equity outperformance might drive further flows into EM assets, supporting EM currencies, it added.

Bonds:

Treasury yields rose across maturities after Monday's Labor Day holiday, driven by the long-end of the curve.

This week's drivers of the Treasury market include the ISM manufacturing print on Tuesday and Friday's labor market data.

"Our base case is for Friday's nonfarm payroll print to come in broadly in line with consensus, leaving expectations for a 25 basis point Fed cut largely intact," Danske Bank said.

Lombard Odier continued to prefer European high yield corporate bonds over the U.S., supported by an improved growth outlook in Europe and better market sentiment.

"We maintain our overweight in investment grade corporate bonds, supported by attractive yields and solid fundamentals, coupled with demand outstripping supply."

Current yields remained comfortably above their long-term averages, and investor flows into the asset class also remained strong, underpinned by solid demand for new issues, it added.

Thirty-year Bund yields continued to rise, extending Monday's move and hitting their highest level since 2011.

Energy:

Oil prices rose, although locked in a relatively narrow range, as escalating Ukrainian drone strikes against Moscow's energy infrastructure heightened concerns over Russian supply disruptions.

"August saw the most severe wave of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure since mid-2022, with up to 10 refineries hit," Kpler said.

"While repairs are underway, past patterns suggest lasting impacts into October."

The attacks triggered a sharp drop in crude-processing volumes at Russian refineries, according to Kpler, which said domestic shortages were already materializing.

"The likelihood of reduced refined product exports--especially light and Middle distillate products--is increasing."

Kpler cut its 2025 forecast for Russian refining throughput by 60,000-65,000 barrels a day from earlier projections.

Gas

European natural-gas prices rose slightly as traders monitored flows out of Norway--the region's single largest supplier--amid seasonal maintenance works.

"Some work at the Troll field has been extended by six days," ING said.

Daily Norwegian gas flows to Europe have fallen below 240 million cubic meters a day from around 340 million cubic meters a day in early August, it added.

Metals:

Gold hit a record above $3,500 per ounce in Asia, topping April's peak.

The rally reflected a softer dollar and strong central-bank and institutional demand as investors rotate out of Treasurys, Swissquote Bank said.

Central banks' gold allocations even surpassed their Treasury holdings this year, it added.

IG market said investors were continuing to flock to the safety provided by hard assets and precious metals.

Julius Baer said after Trump moved to fire a Fed governor last week, gold rose and silver traded above $40 an ounce for the first time in 14 years and that the backdrop remained favorable.

It reiterated a constructive view on gold and remained neutral on silver due to a less compelling risk/reward relationship.

Sliver

Spot silver prices maintained their 14-year high.

EMEA HEADLINES

Nestlé Fires CEO Following Probe of Romantic Relationship With Subordinate

Nestlé said it dismissed Chief Executive Laurent Freixe with immediate effect following an investigation into an undisclosed romantic relationship with a direct subordinate that breached the group's code of conduct.

The Swiss maker of Nescafé coffee and Purina pet food said Monday that its board had ordered the probe overseen by Chairman Paul Bulcke and lead independent director Pablo Isla, with the support of independent outside counsel.

Monte Dei Paschi Raises Mediobanca Offer by EUR750 Million in Cash

Italy's Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena sweetened its takeover bid for peer Mediobanca by adding 750 million euros ($878.4 million) in cash, days before the offer period for the hostile bid is coming to an end.

Monte dei Paschi on Tuesday said it would pay 0.90 euros a share for each Mediobanca share tendered, on top of its original offer of 2.533 of its own shares for each Mediobanca share.

Russia Intensifies Strikes in Ukraine, Defying Trump's Shifting Deadlines for Peace

Russian President Vladimir Putin is expanding his strikes on Ukrainian cities, threatening escalation against Kyiv's backers and pressing for further military gains in defiance of President Trump's deadlines to enter serious peace talks.

Ukrainian civilians have suffered an uptick in deadly missile and drone strikes in the wake of an inconclusive summit between Trump and Putin in Alaska last month. Moscow's forces have also pushed troops forward on the battlefield, albeit slowly, at the expense of men and materiel in a dogged campaign to take territory and sap the strength from Ukraine's army.

OPEC+ Set to Hold Output Steady as Oil Glut Anxiety Looms

Key members of OPEC+ are set to meet Sunday to discuss production policy as the market braces for a global supply glut that is expected to put pressure on prices. However, excess supply has yet to show in inventory data or in the crude futures structure.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed to fully unwind 2.2 million barrels a day of voluntary cuts a year ahead of its original plan, and is now widely expected to hold policy steady as it evaluates its next steps amid an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop.

GLOBAL NEWS

Only a really big jobs report might stop the Fed from cutting interest rates. Don't count on it.

Perhaps the only thing that might stop the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates in a few weeks would be a surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report. Just don't count on it.

Hiring has slowed sharply since the spring after the Trump administration launched the biggest trade wars in decades. Even with those trade disputes dying down, businesses have been slow to add new employees.

The Israeli Army Is Struggling to Get Reservists to Show Up

TEL AVIV-As the Israeli military prepares for a new offensive on Gaza City, military commanders are struggling to find enough reservists willing to report for duty.

Israeli troops are exhausted after nearly two years of fighting on several fronts, and more are questioning the purpose of the war. As the military is now calling up some 60,000 reservists from their jobs, studies and families to support the new mission, many are saying they are at a breaking point, according to more than 30 officers and soldiers who were interviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

Xi Revisits WWII to Boost China in Great-Power Rivalry With U.S.

Eight decades after the end of World War II, China's Communist Party is still battling for recognition of its role in securing final victory and its claims to the territorial spoils-amid a bruising rivalry with the U.S.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has directed an expansive propaganda campaign in recent months to trumpet the party's account of how it helped defeat Japan. On Wednesday, he will oversee a grand parade of troops, missiles and tanks rumbling through central Beijing to commemorate the 1945 victory.

Source: morningstar

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Winkelmann

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Economic

Rothschild & Co. is set to take over the United Arab Emirates subsidiary of the Liechtensteinische Landesbank, bolstering its presence in one of the world’s hottest markets for wealth management.The so-called referral agreement with LLB will add assets worth about 1 billion Swiss francs ($1.2 billion) to Rothschild’s Dubai-based franchise, according to a statement on Tuesday. LLB will focus on its locations in Liechtenstein, Switzerland, Austria and Germany, while recommending Rothschild & Co. to clients in the United Arab Emirates.

“In recent years, we have experienced continuous strong growth in our global Wealth Management and Middle East businesses,” Rothschild & Co. Executive Chairman Alexandre de Rothschild said in a separate statement. The latest deal “represents our high conviction in the UAE’s potential, given the increasing concentration of both regional and global wealth here.”The Paris-based bank opened a wealth management office last year in Dubai, where it will have about 25 employees after the agreement with LLB. The move will help the firm step up its regional offerings across public and private markets, as well as corporate advisory.

Other global firms have also bolstered their presence in the region in the past few years to capitalize on the burgeoning market for the ultra-rich. Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG, UBS AG and JPMorgan Chase & Co. have recruited private bankers while Azura Partners, a wealth manager founded by a former Julius Baer Group Ltd., is relocating its headquarters to Abu Dhabi from Monaco.Rothschild’s move is also another sign that major banks have shrugged off the geopolitical instability that marked the region in previous months. The world’s richest people and their wealth managers continue to flock to the region, lured by low taxes, business-friendly regimes and year-round sunshine.

Still, some firms have faced issues in the region, including HSBC Holdings Plc. Its Swiss private bank is ending relationships with wealthy Middle Eastern clients as part of efforts to lower its exposure to individuals it deems high-risk, Bloomberg News has reported.