US 30 Forecast: The Index Is Correcting After The Decline

Stocks

Economic

Summary:

Within the global trend, the US 30 index has declined, leading to a shift towards a downward trajectory. The US 30 forecast for today is negative.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

Recent data: the US Federal Reserve balance sheet decreased to 6.59 trillion USD
Market impact: the data has a moderately positive impact on the stock market

US 30 fundamental analysis

Speaking at the National Association for Business Economics conference in Philadelphia, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell discussed in detail the current stage of quantitative tightening. Although he did not specify when the program might end, Powell noted that there are signs the Fed is nearing its target level of adequate reserves available to banks. While balance sheet management may appear to be a technical issue, it plays an important role for financial markets.

When financial conditions tighten, the Fed aims to maintain ample reserves so that banks can access liquidity and support the economy. As conditions evolve, the central bank targets a sufficient – rather than excessive – level of reserves to prevent surplus capital in the system. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve significantly expanded its balance sheet through large-scale purchases of US Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, pushing it close to 9 trillion USD.

US 30 technical analysis

The US 30 index continues to fall within a downtrend. The resistance level has formed at 46,880.0, while support lies at 45,450.0. At this stage, it is difficult to assess how long the current trend might last. A breakout above the current resistance level would signal a potential resumption of upward movement.

The US 30 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

Pessimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout below the 45,450.0 support level could send the index down to 44,565.0
Optimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout above the 46,880.0 resistance level could push the index up to 47,880.0

US 30 Forecast: The Index Is Correcting After The Decline_1

US 30 technical analysis for 15 October 2025

Summary

Jerome Powell noted signs of gradually tightening liquidity conditions, suggesting that further reserve reductions could hinder growth. The US 30 stock index has been in a downtrend since late last week. Only developments related to the US-China trade conflict are likely to reverse this trend, while economic data remains unavailable due to the government shutdown. The next downside target for the index could be 46,880.0.

Source: RoboForex

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Stocks

London stocks had extended losses by midday on Wednesday as investors mulled the prospect of tax rises and spending cuts in the next Budget.

The FTSE 100 was down 0.6% at 9,399.78, underperforming peers in Europe, where the Stoxx 600 benchmark index rose 0.7% and France’s CAC 40 gained a whopping 2.5% as LVMH led the luxury sector higher after solid quarterly results.

Joshua Mahony at Scope Markets said the UK index was "weighed down by renewed fiscal concerns after the chancellor warned of significant tax rises and spending cuts that could go further than required to plug the public finance gap".

"While such measures may reduce the risk of repeated tax hikes later in her tenure, they also raise fears of fresh pressure on UK growth," he said.

"The IMF offered some encouragement with an upgraded 2026 growth forecast of 1.3%, but with inflation restricting Bank of England support, and fiscal tightening on the horizon, the outlook for a meaningful improvement in momentum remains limited."

Investors were also mulling the latest comments from US President Donald Trump, who suggested on Tuesday that he was considering ending certain trade ties with China, including cooking oil imports, as a response to reduced US soybean purchases by China.

Danske Bank said: "The move highlights escalating trade tensions, with Washington and Beijing already at odds over tariffs, supply chains, and broader geopolitical issues."

Across the Pond, earnings were due from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley following a raft of bank earnings on Tuesday.

In UK equity markets, defence stocks fell, with Babcock and BAE Systems both weaker, while Jupiter Fund Management and Rathbones also lost ground after updates.

Gambling and gaming giant Entain retreated even as it reiterated its full-year guidance, despite a slew of customer-friendly results during the third quarter.

On the upside, luxury fashion brand Burberry shot to the top of the FTSE 100 after third-quarter number from France’s LVMH impressed. Luxury watch retailer Watches of Switzerland also rallied.

Pets at Home was faring well, up 4% after the Competition and Markets Authority said that vets should be made to publish prices so customers can look around for the best deal, and suggested price caps on prescriptions.

On the whole, the provisional findings of the CMA's two-year investigation and suggested remedies threw up no surprises.

Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "The outcome is broadly as expected, but with no major negative surprises should alleviate the uncertainty that’s been weighing on consumer and investor sentiment.

"That’s seen a share price increase for Pets at Home, with its growing veterinary offer, and a bigger spike for CVS Group, which is more of a pure play on the industry. That said, the line under the matter has only been pencilled in so far. A further consultation is underway and a deadline for publication of the final decision has been set for March 2026."

Elsewhere, recruiter PageGroup surged as it reported a drop in third-quarter profit amid a more challenging market in Europe, but said 2025 operating profit was expected to be broadly in line with current market consensus of £21.5m.

British Land also rose on the back of a well-received trading update.

Source: Sharecast

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Stocks

OPENING CALL

Stocks were poised to open higher Wednesday, with investors awaiting updates from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley after a clutch of strong earnings from big banks Tuesday.

Gold continued its record-breaking run, with most-active futures contracts topping $4,200 a troy ounce on fears the trade spat with China could grow.

Investors are unsure how and if the standoff will play out, but people close to Beijing's decision-making said China expects that the prospect of another market meltdown ultimately will force Trump to negotiate at an expected summit with Xi late this month.

The government shutdown has delayed the consumer-price index, initially due for release Wednesday, but is now set to be published next week.

Some other economic data are expected to be issued as normal: the Federal Reserve's Beige Book survey, and the New York Fed's Empire State manufacturing survey.

Stocks to Watch

ASP Isotopes is starting an underwritten public offering. Shares fell 11% off market.

Dentsply Sirona said a SEC probe into its accounting practices closed. The stock advanced 4% off hours.

Veritone said its contract bookings and pipeline has doubled to $40 million since August, and it expects to report higher revenue and a narrower loss than analysts are forecasting. Shares rose 47%.

Watch For:

CPI for September was due (delayed); earnings from Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, United Airlines

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MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The dollar fell to a nearly one-week low against a basket of currencies after Powell signaled further rate cuts and China trade tensions built.

Powell highlighted that the labor market has shown significant downside risks.

"Markets took his speech as a signal that he could be ready to support an interest-rate cut [at the October 29 meeting]," Danske Bank said.

Also on Tuesday, Trump threatened terminating some ties with China, including in relation to cooking oil, in retaliation for Beijing refusing to buy U.S. soybeans.

ING said the dollar could stay under pressure as the Fed's upcoming Beige Book might signal further rate cuts.

The euro looked less fragile as the spread between French and German government-bond yields narrowed following the more positive developments in French politics, ING said.

It added that if Lecornu survives Thursday's confidence vote, the euro could rise and potentially build strong support around $1.1600.

Bonds:

Treasury yields traded marginally lower across maturities as investors bet the Fed was likely to cut rates at its meeting this month.

Capital Economics said the fall in Treasury yields might be bottoming out soon.

"Unless the trade war returns in earnest, we doubt Treasury yields will fall much further in the near term."

The main explanation for the current relatively low Treasury yields is that, notwithstanding a lower perceived risk of recession today, "the outlook for Fed policy has shifted in favor of lower rates over recent months."

Energy:

Oil prices extended losses as fears of an impending supply glut and trade tensions with China clouded crude's outlook.

The benchmarks are down more than 6% on the week after the IEA projected a larger surplus than previously anticipated, with massive volumes of oil in floating storage or transit soon set to reach key hubs.

Traders also fear escalating tensions with China could curtail demand and awaits crude and gasoline inventory data due later in the session for more cues on consumption trends.

Metals:

Gold prices hit a fresh record as the China trade standoff and growing expectations of further rate cuts boosted demand for precious metals.

Silver

Silver was likely to gain further due to an additional tailwind stemming from its position as an industrial metal, XS.com said.

Zinc

Zinc gained as investors considered Chinese plans to sell zinc overseas, which ANZ said would likely open an arbitrage window.

Some Chinese zinc smelters plan to sell to Southeast Asia, and the potential flood of metal to non-Chinese markets has helped to push prices down.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Salesforce-Linked Security Breach Fallout Escalates With Qantas Leak

Hackers said they published data on more than five million Qantas Airways customers this weekend, fulfilling a threat to do so unless paid a ransom.

The leak appears to be one of the first confirmed data dumps from the hackers, who claim to have a hoard of data stolen over the summer from dozens of companies.

ASML Logs Strong Orders Amid AI Spending Frenzy

ASML Holding posted better-than-expected orders of its chip-making equipment for the third quarter as demand for sophisticated semiconductors to power artificial intelligence shows no sign of abating.

The Dutch group reported orders of 5.40 billion euros ($6.27 billion), up from 2.63 billion euros a year earlier and above analysts' forecast of nearly 5.36 billion euros, according to consensus estimates by Visible Alpha.

TotalEnergies Expects Higher Oil Production But Flags LNG Hit

TotalEnergies expects higher oil and gas production and a jump in margins but said earnings in its integrated liquefied natural gas division will be hit by maintenance work.

The French energy major said Wednesday that it expects to produce 2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent a day for the third quarter, a 4% on-year rise that compared with guidance of more than 3% growth.

European Luxury Stocks Rise After Louis Vuitton-Owner LVMH Swings to Growth for First Time This Year

Shares in European luxury-goods makers surged Wednesday after bellwether LVMH said sales rose a little over the third quarter, a sign that a debilitating slump in demand for high-end goods may be nearing an end.

LVMH, the world's largest luxury group and owner of fashion houses Louis Vuitton and Dior, booked revenue of 18.28 billion euros ($21.22 billion) for the third quarter, 1% more than the same period a year ago, adjusted for currency effects.

Jeep Maker Stellantis Plans $13 Billion Investment to Boost U.S. Manufacturing

Stellantis is planning to spend billions of dollars to make more Jeeps, pickups and Dodge SUVs in the United States, in what the global automaker describes as the largest single investment in its history.

Stellantis said Tuesday that it would spend $13 billion through the end of the decade as it launches five new vehicles and a new four-cylinder engine, creating more than 5,000 jobs at plants across the Midwest. Suppliers providing parts for those models may add 20,000 jobs, Chief Executive Antonio Filosa said in an interview.

French Markets Buoyed as Government Moves Toward Budget Compromise

French financial assets gained ground and the euro rose against the dollar Wednesday after the country's prime minister moved toward securing a compromise to avoid a government collapse and pass next year's budget.

The relief came from decisive action from newly reappointed Prime Minister Sebastian Lecornu, who on Tuesday proposed suspending a pension reform until the 2027 presidential election to win over socialist lawmakers and break the deadlock in France's fragmented parliament.

Blue States Are Setting Up a Shadow Public-Health Alliance to Counter RFK Jr.

The public-health resistance to Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is growing.

Governors across 15 states including New York, California and North Carolina are forming a new public-health alliance to detect and respond to disease threats, saying federal-funding cuts and policy changes by the Trump administration are putting their citizens at risk and forcing them to find alternatives.

State Department Revokes Visas Over Charlie Kirk Comments

The State Department said it has revoked the visas of at least six people for their comments on the death of conservative activist Charlie Kirk.

The agency revoked visas from nationals of countries including Argentina, South Africa and Mexico, the department said in a social-media post Tuesday. The department didn't say if the people were in the country at the time their visas were revoked and didn't specify what kinds of visas they held or when the visas were revoked.

Source: morningstar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Forex

Political

When an incursion of Russian drones forced Warsaw airport to shut down last month, Poland immediately shot them down. When unidentified drones forced Munich airport to suspend operations this month, German authorities provided snacks for stranded passengers while police helicopters monitored the air space. As strange as it may sound, Germany’s military isn’t allowed to defend German airspace against anything short of a full-scale invasion. It’s just one roadblock of many in the way of making Germany fighting fit.

On paper, Berlin has a free pass to strengthen national defense. With military spending above 1% gross domestic product exempted from borrowing restrictions, there is effectively no limit on funding of the military, known as the Bundeswehr. But as the drone dilemma indicates, Germany faces more daunting obstacles to defending itself as the neighborhood gets increasingly dangerous.

For one, the constitution, written after World War II, strictly limits the military’s role inside the country, even banning it from shooting down flying objects such as drones anywhere in domestic airspace that isn’t above a military base. This rule was meant to prevent the kind of military overreach seen during authoritarian times, especially under the Nazi regime. Today, these restrictions make it hard to respond to modern threats.

Germany could of course change the legislation, but this is where its deeply fragmented political landscape comes into play. For the first time in post-war history, Germany’s moderate parties don’t command a two-thirds majority in parliament, which is necessary to change constitutionally enshrined rules like the one in question. The far-right AfD and the far-left Die Linke together take up over a third of the seats. The ruling conservatives have a party resolution in place not to negotiate with either.

Even if Chancellor Friedrich Merz talked to all political parties freely to find a two-thirds majority to change the rules, it’s unlikely that he’d find one. His coalition partners, the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), have a vocal pacifist wing and the Green Party has its roots in the peace movements of the 1970s and 1980s. When Merz’s Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt recently suggested finding a way to use the Bundeswehr against drone attacks, representatives of both parties rejected the idea outright.

With the head of the foreign intelligence service, Martin Jaeger, warning this week that “a frosty peace” in Europe “could turn into hot confrontation here and there at any moment,” it seems impossible for Merz to find a political consensus to defend German airspace.But his problems run deeper than that. Many Germans themselves harbor a profound mistrust of state power and public institutions. The Bundeswehr itself has remained popular, with around three-quarters of people saying in polls that they trust it as an institution. But belief in the politicians that would direct its actions has reached a nadir, with one recent survey suggesting that only 17% trust their democratically elected government.

The far-right AfD, now neck-and-neck with the ruling conservatives in the polls, embodies this dilemma. On the one hand, the party program demands more funding for the Bundeswehr and a reintroduction of a compulsory military service to “secure Germany’s defense capability.” On the other, many of its politicians, especially in the former East Germany, openly question if a boosted Bundeswehr would be used “in the German interest,” as the AfD leader in the state of Brandenburg, Christoph Berndt, told the media recently.

Surprisingly for a party that claims to have the national interest at heart, some AfD representatives wouldn’t even be willing to fight for their country in case of an outright attack. A young regional MP, Felix Teichner, told a German journalist last year: “One thing is clear: if this country is attacked, no matter by whom, I will grab my children and go as far away as possible.”He is not alone with this view. A recent survey found that only 16% of Germans would “definitely” defend the country with arms. That’s despite the fact that over a quarter of people thought it likely that Germany would be attacked militarily within the next five years. It’s hardly surprising that the political class can’t find a consensus when society shares their deeply entrenched reluctance to build German defense readiness.

Germany’s grappling with the question of how to defend its airspace from drone incursions is the tip of a giant iceberg of problems when it comes to rearmament and defense readiness. A deeply divided country with increasingly messy politics, it is far from mounting the kind of collective resolve necessary to build an effective military ethos. It’s a conundrum that afflicts much of the West to varying degrees. But Germany’s exceptional fiscal power, combined with its particular past and present, creates a unique paradox: Germany is an economic giant that is astonishingly hard to defend.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Economic

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Extends Recovery

Japanese stocks bounced back strongly on Wednesday, with the benchmark Nikkei index recovering from its biggest one-day loss since April, as investors bought back into the technology sector.

The Nikkei 225 Index surged 1.8% to close at 47,672.67, making up for a significant part of its 2.6% drop from the previous session. The broader Topix index also climbed 1.6%. Leading the recovery were major tech stocks that had been hit hard by worries over the China-U.S. trade dispute.

SoftBank Group, a key investor in chips and AI, rose 5.1%, while chip equipment maker Advantest gained 2.2%. In related news, the European Union is reportedly considering a bold plan to require Chinese companies to share their technology with European firms in exchange for local market access.

Domestically, there is ongoing political uncertainty in Japan, with leaders of the main opposition parties meeting on Wednesday to discuss uniting behind a single candidate for the position of Prime Minister.

Chinese CPI Underwhelms

China's consumer prices continued to fall in September 2025, recording a year-over-year drop of 0.3%, which was slightly less severe than the previous month but worse than what analysts had expected.

The main reason for the overall price decline was a steep drop in food prices, which fell at their fastest rate since January 2024. This was largely driven by an oversupply of pork, lower production costs, and weak consumer demand ahead of the Golden Week holidays.

In contrast to food, prices for goods and services excluding food and energy (known as core inflation) actually rose by 1.0% year-over-year. This was the highest core inflation reading in 19 months, suggesting that underlying consumer demand is slowly starting to pick up, possibly due to government incentives encouraging people to trade in old consumer goods. Categories like healthcare and clothing saw price increases, and the cost of transportation fell at a slower pace than before.

On a month-to-month basis, prices barely moved, increasing just 0.1%.

Even though the current economic data suggests the central bank of China (People's Bank of China) should lower interest rates or take other steps to boost the economy (monetary easing), it might decide to wait. The bank could be saving those options in case the planned meeting between President Xi and President Trump does not go well, allowing them to use the easing measures as an emergency economic boost afterward.

European Session - Luxury Sector Boosts European Stocks

European stock markets climbed on Wednesday, largely driven by a massive rally in luxury brands after French giant LVMH delivered surprisingly positive sales results, calming fears about the health of major companies amidst global trade and growth concerns.

Luxury group LVMH saw its shares soar over 12%, heading for their best daily performance in almost two years after reporting better-than-expected sales in the third quarter, fueled by stronger demand in China.

This good news immediately boosted other luxury stocks, with companies like Hermes and Richemont seeing gains between 2.7% and 7.2%. This surge caused the French stock index to jump 2.5%, while the broader STOXX 600 index for all of Europe rose 0.8%.

Adding to the positive mood, chip-equipment supplier ASML rose 3.5% after its forecasts for quarterly orders and sales beat market expectations.

However, not all stocks did well: German copper producer Aurubis fell 7.1% because its majority owner, Salzgitter, launched a large bond that can be exchanged for Aurubis shares, which often puts downward pressure on a stock's price.

On the FX front, The US dollar remained mostly unchanged early on Wednesday, stabilizing after a slight drop in the previous session.

The dollar was steady against the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, holding its value after losing ground to both currencies on Tuesday.

The euro also held firm at 1.1606 following its own small gain yesterday.

Among commodity-linked currencies, the Australian dollar ticked up slightly by 0.1%, attempting to recover after hitting its lowest point since late August on Tuesday.

In contrast, the New Zealand dollar continued its slight decline, easing another 0.1% after falling to a six-month low yesterday.

Currency Power Balance

Oil prices dropped slightly on Wednesday, continuing a downward trend, as worries about too much supply in the global market overshadowed demand concerns tied to the US-China trade conflict.

The main pressure came from a warning issued by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA stated that the global oil market could see a large supply surplus—as much as 4 million bpd next year. This is a bigger excess than previously expected, caused by oil-producing nations (OPEC+ and rivals) increasing their output while global demand remains slow.

Both major oil benchmarks, Brent crude and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI), saw small dips, with Brent trading at $62.30 per barrel. Both contracts had already hit five-month lows in the previous trading session.

Gold prices surged again on Wednesday, climbing to a new all-time high just above the $4,200 per ounce mark.

Renewed concerns about the trade conflict between the U.S. and China has given haven demand a fresh boost.

Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts

Looking at the economic calendar, the European session will be quiet before market participants' attention turns to US Earnings data and a host of Central Bank speakers who will take the spotlight.

Lastly, attention will be on the Federal Reserve's "Beige Book," a key report that gathers informal information on the US economy across its regions, because it strongly influences the Fed's decisions on interest rates.

The Beige Book may carry more weight at the moment given the US government shutdown and lack of data available, especially labor data.

Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index

From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 did rise toward the resistance level around 9500.

However, the index failed to break higher and is experiencing a pullback this morning.

The bullish structure will remain intact as long as the FTSE 100 is able to hold above the swing low at 9412 and the 100-day MA resting at 9406.

A hold above this key confluence zone could be the start of the next leg higher.

A break of this zone though open up the Index to further downside.

Immediate resistance rests around the 9500 handle before the swing high at 9590 comes into focus.

On the downside, support rests at 9406 before the 9357 and 9311 handles become areas of interest.

FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, October 15. 2025

Source: marketpulse

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Glendon

Economic

Forex

New York state factory activity unexpectedly expanded and the outlook climbed to the highest since the start of the year despite lingering price pressures.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s October general business conditions index increased 19.4 points to 10.7 as orders and shipments picked up, figures issued Wednesday showed. Readings above zero indicate expansion.

The figure, which is prone to wide swings on a monthly basis, exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

A gauge of the outlook over the next six months more than doubled to 30.3, reflecting greater optimism about orders and shipments. Some producers stand to benefit from more favorable tax policy and business investment such as artificial intelligence.

Manufacturing across a variety of sectors has struggled to build momentum as higher US import duties raise costs of materials and introduce supply-chain challenges. The Fed’s report showed a gauge of prices paid for materials rose, while a measure of prices received by state manufacturers increased to a six-month high.

The state’s producers expect more inflation in coming months. The outlook for prices paid climbed to one of the highest readings since 2022.

Economists and policymakers will be relying more on reports such as those from the regional Fed banks for clues on the economy in the absence of official data because of the US government shutdown. The Fed announced last week that it has delayed the September industrial production report.

In addition to growth in orders and shipments, a gauge of factory employment showed the fastest expansion in three months.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Blue River

Technical Analysis

The Euro edged higher on Wednesday morning, underpinned by weaker dollar on the latest remarks from Fed chief Powell which markets saw as more dovish and contributing to strong expectations for two rate cuts by the end of the year.

Fresh gains penetrated daily cloud (spanned between 1.1610 and 1.1686) and attempt to break above recent congestion (top lays at 1.1650 and is reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen), which acts as solid resistance and caps recovery so far.

Break of 1.1650 is seen as minimum requirement to keep recovery in play, with lift above daily cloud top (1.1680. also Fibo 38.2% of 1.1918/1.1542) to confirm signal and open way for further gains towards 1.1730 (daily Kijun-sen / 50% retracement) and 1.1774 (Fibo 61.8% / Oct 1 lower top) in extension.

However, predominantly bearish structure of daily technical studies warns of potential recovery stall, with slight bullish bias expected while the price stays above cloud base, but fresh negative signal to be expected in case on repeated daily close below daily cloud.

Res: 1.1650; 1.1686; 1.1700; 1.1730.
Sup: 1.1610; 1.1596; 1.1574; 1.1542.