Turkey Slashes Russian Oil Imports: Shifts to Kazakhstan and Iraq Amid Sanctions and Supply Concerns

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

Turkey, once the second-largest buyer of Russian Ural crude, has drastically cut imports by 100,000 barrels per day in November, opting instead for alternative sources like Kazakhstan’s CPC Blend and Iraq’s Basrah crude...

Turkey’s Strategic Withdrawal from Russian Oil

Once one of Russia's most crucial customers after the European Union ceased buying crude from Moscow in 2022, Turkey is now stepping back. According to energy consultancy Kpler and data provider LSEG, Turkey’s imports of Russian Ural crude fell from 300,000 to 200,000 barrels per day in November 2025, a sharp 33% month-on-month decline.

This decline is not coincidental but correlates directly with intensifying Western sanctions, particularly from Washington. New restrictions targeting major Russian oil firms such as Lukoil and Rosneft have narrowed the pool of acceptable trading partners for Turkish refiners. In parallel, anticipation of the European Union's January 2026 embargo on refined fuels derived from Russian oil is pressuring Turkish firms to diversify their sourcing strategies preemptively.

The decision reflects a causal relationship: policy and geopolitical shifts are directly driving changes in Turkey’s oil procurement patterns, rather than coincidental market movements.

Kazakhstan and Iraq Step In to Fill the Gap

In response to the shortfall in Russian Ural crude, Turkey is increasingly sourcing oil from Kazakhstan and Iraq. In November, imports of CPC Blend from Kazakhstan reached 105,000 barrels per day the highest level since February 2024. CPC Blend, although exported via Russia’s Yuzhnaya Ozereyevka port, is produced primarily by Kazakh firms and thus exempt from sanctions targeting Russian energy.

Additionally, Turkey is ramping up purchases of KEBCO (another Kazakh blend) and Iraq’s Basrah crude. These choices reveal a calculated pivot toward alternative suppliers who offer similar quality grades without legal complications. The link between Western sanctions and Turkey’s diversification efforts is not merely correlated but reflects a clear cause-and-effect mechanism whereby external policy constraints are compelling internal strategic adjustments.

Substitution Limits and Supply Chain Risks

Despite this shift, replicating the volume and quality of Ural crude presents a structural challenge. As of June 2025, Turkey’s Ural crude imports had climbed to nearly 400,000 barrels per day, highlighting the extent of its dependence. The Mediterranean oil market has limited availability of medium-sour grades with similar refining characteristics, restricting how seamlessly Turkish refiners can pivot.

Moreover, the replacement strategy carries its own vulnerabilities. The recent conflict affecting the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) infrastructure raises the risk of future supply disruptions. Any escalation targeting export terminals or pipeline infrastructure in Kazakhstan could significantly impact Turkey’s newly favored CPC Blend imports.

This reveals a complex web of dependencies: while diversification offers near-term compliance and risk mitigation, it also introduces exposure to new geopolitical and logistical risks. The nature of this relationship is not purely correlative but highlights interconnected causal chains within the global energy supply network.

Navigating a Constrained Energy Landscape

Turkey’s energy strategy is undergoing a rapid transformation, shaped primarily by sanctions and shifting alliances in the global oil trade. The significant drop in Russian oil imports reflects more than a temporary market fluctuation it signals a long-term adjustment in sourcing behavior.

However, the transition from Ural to CPC Blend and Basrah crude is not without friction. Substitution constraints and geopolitical risks remain significant. As Turkey repositions itself within an increasingly fragmented energy landscape, its ability to maintain refinery output and price stability will depend on the resilience of alternative supply routes and the absence of further shocks in key partner nations.

The coming months will test whether Turkey’s shift is a sustainable long-term strategy or a fragile balancing act between compliance, cost, and supply security.

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Glendon

Forex

Economic

The UK's construction sector last month suffered its sharpest slowdown in activity since the first Covid lockdown as building projects were scaled back and jobs cut amid budget uncertainty, according to a closely watched survey.

In a blow to Labour's aims to boost infrastructure projects and get 1.5m homes built by 2030, the poll of UK construction firms showed output in November shrinking at the fastest pace since May 2020, when all building stalled as the pandemic shut down sites.

The monthly purchasing managers' index (PMI) for construction, considered one of the best indicators of growth in the sector, fell to 39.4 in November, down from 44.1 in October and below the 44.6 forecast by economists. Any reading above 50 represents growth and anything below a contraction.

The only other time the PMI survey, which is compiled by the data firm S&P Global, has suggested such a sharp contraction in new construction work was during the financial crisis in 2009, when the housing market crashed.

Builders have been scaling back on residential projects over the past year amid a subdued housing market and rising construction costs. Infrastructure and commercial development work also contracted sharply in November, as clients deferred investment decisions due to uncertainty about the autumn budget and "pervasive worries" about the UK economic outlook.

Separate Bank of England research has suggested businesses in the UK cut jobs at the fastest rate in four years in November. The survey of chief financial officers showed companies reduced employment by an annual rate of 1.8%, the sharpest contraction since July 2021.

The survey, called the decision maker panel, is closely monitored by Bank officials and has been cited by members of its interest rate-setting committee. Optimism for the year ahead also remained subdued, with financial officers expecting employment to fall by 0.7%, the lowest level since October 2020.

However, Robert Wood, the chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, suggested both surveys had been skewed by "chaotic" speculation before the autumn budget. "We find it hard to believe that conditions in the sector are genuinely as bad as during a full lockdown," he said.

Wood said that the construction output figures from the Office for National Statistics had been faring better than the PMI survey so far this year, while job postings in general rose in November. "There's no doubt that construction firms are extremely disappointed in the government's progress, but we think the PMI remains too pessimistic."

Matthew Swannell, the chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club, agreed, saying the PMI has been "much more pessimistic than official estimates". He added: "November's extremely weak PMI should be approached with a healthy degree of scepticism."

Source: GUARDIAN

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Justin

Stocks

Economic

China has launched its first power plant using an advanced gas turbine manufactured domestically, marking a major step toward reducing dependence on foreign technology amid a global equipment shortage, according to Bloomberg.

China Energy Investment Corp. commissioned the Anji Power Plant, which operates two GE-designed turbines of roughly 400 megawatts each.

Bloomberg writes that the turbine design comes from GE Vernova, which formed a joint venture with state-owned Harbin Electric in 2019 to localize production and supply up to a dozen units annually.

The achievement advances China's long-running effort to build its own gas-turbine industry at a time when worldwide demand is surging—driven by data-center expansion and by developing nations shifting away from coal.

China's gas-fired capacity is expected to reach about 150 gigawatts this year, with proposals to grow to 200 gigawatts by 2030. Gas power is becoming increasingly important in coastal regions facing limited land for renewables and grid bottlenecks, according to Qi Qin of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

Other domestic manufacturers, including Dongfang Electric and Shanghai Electric, are also speeding up their gas-turbine development programs.

The move carries broader geopolitical significance. As advanced gas turbines have long been dominated by a small group of Western and Japanese suppliers, China's ability to localize production reduces a key point of technological leverage.

At a time when global supply chains for strategic equipment are tightening and export controls are expanding, demonstrating domestic capability in large-scale turbine manufacturing strengthens China's energy security and lowers its vulnerability to potential sanctions or supply disruptions.

Source: Zero Hedge

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Adam

Economic

Futures tied to U.S. stock indices are subdued, with traders gearing up for key job market data and assessing the possibility of a cut to U.S. interest rates later this month. Salesforce lifts its full-year revenue and adjusted profit forecast, thanks to solid demand for its artificial intelligence agents. Elsewhere, crude prices edge higher after renewed Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.

Futures waver

U.S. stock futures hovered around the flatline on Thursday, paring back some earlier gains, as investors eyed upcoming economic data that could factor into expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut later this month.

By 03:31 ET (08:31 GMT), the Dow futures contract was mostly unchanged, S&P 500 futures had dropped 5 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had fallen 38 points, or 0.2%.

The main averages on Wall Street climbed in the prior session. Traders assessed a decline in a measure of private-sector payrolls, as well as a separate survey from the Institute for Supply Management showing a contraction in services sector employment and a dip in a subindex of prices paid.

Taken together, the figures helped to bolster wagers that the Fed, gauging a waning labor market and signs of sticky but broadly steady inflation, would slash rates by 25 basis points at its December 9-10 meeting. The odds of such a reduction now stand at roughly 89%, according to CME FedWatch.

Markets were also shrugging off a media report that multiple divisions at tech giant Microsoft had lowered their sales growth targets for certain artificial intelligence-related products. Shares of Microsoft, who denied the report, fell by 2.5%.

Initial jobless claims ahead

Investors will have the chance to pour over more job market data on Thursday, when the U.S. Labor Department releases its weekly reading of first-time applications for unemployment benefits.

Economists anticipate that the reading will come in at 219,000, up marginally from 216,000 in the prior week.

Last week’s numbers marked a seven-month trough for the metric, indicating that while layoffs and firings remained low, demand for Americans looking for work has stayed muted.

Although there has been a relative dearth of more comprehensive official employment data due to a record-long federal government shutdown, the Fed argued at meetings in October and September that there is enough evidence of a slowing in the labor market to warrant an easing in borrowing costs.

Salesforce raises outlook

Shares of Salesforce rose by more than 2% in extended hours trading after the company lifted its fiscal 2026 revenue and adjusted income guidance.

Underpinning the upbeat outlook were projections for strong growth in demand for the group’s AI-enhanced agent platform, especially among its enterprise clients.

The forecast highlights the benefits Salesforce is anticipating from a growing amount of businesses moving to adopt AI tools to help streamline their operations. Mega-cap tech groups, such as Oracle, have particularly used the firm’s AI agents, which can both automate tasks and make some decisions.

In a statement, CEO Marc Benioff said its Agentforce and Data 360 products have been "the momentum drivers," notching annual recurring revenues of almost $1.4 billion, representing "explosive" growth of 114% year-over-year.

Gold dips

Gold prices edged lower, weighed by profit-taking even as investors grew more confident that the Fed will cut interest rates next week.

Spot gold was last down 0.3% at $4,191.39 an ounce and U.S. Gold Futures for February delivery had slipped 0.3% to $4,219.40 an ounce.

The prospect of lower interest rates tends to bode well for non-yielding assets such as bullion.

Along with the weekly initial jobless claims data due out later today, attention is on the delayed September Personal Consumption Expenditures price index -- the Fed’s preferred inflation metric -- on Friday.

Oil ticks higher

Oil prices rose after more strikes on Russian oil infrastructure raised threats to global supply, adding to the lack of progress in diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

Brent futures climbed 0.6% to $63.04 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures advanced 0.8% to $59.42 a barrel.

A Reuters report on Wednesday, citing sources, said that Ukrainian forces struck the Druzhba pipeline in Russia’s central Tambov region, reviving concerns over potential disruptions to Russian oil exports.

At the same time, high-level peace talks between U.S. and Russian officials concluded without any breakthrough earlier this week.

Source: investing

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Michelle

Forex

Economic

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits dropped to the lowest level in more than three years last week, still showing no signs of a deterioration in labor market conditions.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 191,000 for the week ended November 29, the lowest level since September 2022, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 220,000 claims for the latest week.

The data included last Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday. Claims tend to be volatile around holidays. They are at levels consistent with historically low layoffs, and could allay fears the labor market was weakening sharply after the ADP employment report on Wednesday showed private payrolls dropped by the most in more than 2-1/2 years in November.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' closely watched employment report for November, originally due on Friday, has been delayed because of a record 43-day shutdown of the government and will now be published on December 16.

Economists view the labor market as remaining in a "no fire, no hire" state. Federal Reserve officials meet next week to decide on interest rates. As many as five of the 12 voting policymakers on the central bank's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee have voiced opposition to or skepticism about cutting rates further, while a core of three members of the Washington-based Board of Governors wants rates to fall.

Labor market stagnation has been blamed on reduced labor supply amid a reduction in immigration that started during the final year of former President Joe Biden's term and accelerated under President Donald Trump's administration.

The integration of artificial intelligence into some job roles is also eroding demand for labor, with entry-level positions taking most of the hit.

Economists also say Trump's trade policy has created an uncertain economic environment that has hamstrung the ability of businesses, especially small enterprises, to hire.

The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, slipped 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.939 million during the week ending November 22, the claims report showed.

The elevated so-called continuing claims suggest a steady rise in the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in September from 4.3% in August.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

Vietnam’s Rural Paradox Amid Economic Resilience

Despite navigating a tumultuous global period, Vietnam has recorded strong economic indicators. Between 2021 and 2025, GDP growth is expected to average 6.3% annually outpacing the previous term. The national economy has expanded to 510 billion USD, placing it 32nd globally, with per capita income reaching 5,000 USD. Significant progress in strategic infrastructure has reshaped the transportation network, particularly with 3,245 kilometers of expressways now operational. Social welfare programs have also succeeded in eradicating dilapidated housing ahead of schedule.

However, this broad national progress has not resolved a fundamental imbalance: the lack of sustainable employment and income opportunities in rural and mountainous areas. While 79.3% of communes now meet the criteria for "new rural areas," and essential infrastructure has improved, rural youth are increasingly leaving their hometowns to seek employment in major urban industrial zones. This pattern reflects a causal relationship between the absence of localized economic opportunities and the rise of labor migration.

The Unintended Consequences of Rural Depopulation

The migration of young laborers to urban centers has created serious consequences for both the places they leave and the cities they flock to. Rural regions particularly those in remote, border, and highland areas are increasingly characterized by a demographic vacuum, where only the elderly and children remain. These “empty villages” face not only socioeconomic stagnation but also heightened security vulnerabilities.

This depopulation has a ripple effect: urban areas are becoming strained by growing demands on infrastructure, social services, and public resources. At the same time, depopulated rural zones become more susceptible to criminal infiltration and influence from hostile groups, raising concerns about national security in strategic frontier regions. The pattern demonstrates a causal chain where lack of rural employment leads to migration, which in turn generates urban overload and rural exposure to instability.

Proposed Strategic Interventions for Rural Revitalization

To address this rural exodus, National Assembly delegate Trần Thị Thu Phước argues for a systemic transformation in how Vietnam approaches rural development. General encouragement is insufficient. Instead, bold, targeted policies are needed to attract investment directly into rural communities.

One key intervention is land-use planning. Provinces must allocate priority land for the development of satellite industrial clusters and simplify procedures for converting low-productivity rice fields into non-agricultural industrial zones. This reform aims to facilitate capital inflows and provide a foundation for rural job creation.

Tax and credit incentives also play a critical role. Delegate Phước proposes offering maximum corporate income tax incentives equivalent to those found in economic zones for all businesses investing in border or mountainous regions, regardless of their size. This reflects a cause-effect strategy: financial incentives will directly reduce investment barriers, stimulating local employment.

In terms of industry focus, policymakers are encouraged to support deep-processing industries tied to local OCOP (One Commune One Product) goods. By industrializing artisanal and agricultural products, these policies can elevate the economic value of local goods, creating branded, export-ready commodities. This transition would allow farmers to become factory workers while remaining in their hometowns, achieving the goal of "leaving farming without leaving the homeland."

From Rural Exodus to Regional Revival

Vietnam’s economic narrative is one of impressive resilience, but its rural reality is still marked by disconnection and demographic imbalance. The current youth outmigration is not a coincidental trend but a direct consequence of unaddressed structural deficits in rural employment. Bridging this gap requires a holistic and bold approach from infrastructure and land reform to fiscal policy and industrial transformation.

The road to sustainable growth lies not only in cities and export zones but also in empowering rural communities. By creating opportunities where people live, Vietnam can protect its socio-economic fabric, reinforce national security, and ensure that development is not just fast but inclusive and lasting.

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Global Metal Prices Rally on Rate Cut Anticipation

At the end of November, both gold and silver posted impressive gains, with silver reaching a new historic high. The international spot price for gold climbed to approximately 4,220 USD per ounce, a 1.5% increase or 62 USD in just one session. Silver outperformed with a jump of 5.6%, rising by 3 USD to hit 56.4 USD per ounce.

Domestically, the surge was equally significant. On November 29, SJC gold bars were priced between 152.9 million and 154.9 million VND per tael, up by 700,000 VND from the previous day. Bảo Tín Minh Châu adjusted their prices to 151.5 million – 154.5 million VND, marking a sharp increase of 1.2 million VND per tael. For silver, Phú Quý listed prices between 2.123 and 2.184 million VND per tael, or approximately 56.48 to 58.24 million VND per kilogram, with the highest selling price peaking at 58.6 million VND per kg—a record high.

This movement reflects a monthly rise of 13% for domestic silver, while the yearly increase hit 86.3%, nearly identical to global silver’s 87% surge.

Monetary Policy Shift: Cause of Precious Metal Momentum

The surge in gold and silver is closely tied to expectations surrounding U.S. monetary policy. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of the Fed reducing its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at the December meeting exceeds 80%. Statements by key Fed officials, including New York Fed President John Williams and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, have reinforced these expectations, suggesting institutional alignment on easing monetary conditions.

This anticipated rate cut is expected to weaken the U.S. dollar and lower real interest rates, both of which historically contribute to bullish trends in precious metals. The causal relationship here is direct: lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver, thus fueling demand.

Silver Faces Tight Supply and Strategic Demand Growth

Beyond rate speculation, silver’s performance is being driven by structural supply issues and strategic demand. Chu Phương, a market analyst at Giavang.net, notes that physical silver availability has dropped sharply in major markets. The London OTC silver inventory is significantly depleted, while the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) has recorded its lowest silver reserves in over a decade.

These developments signal more than short-term volatility. The ongoing imbalance between supply and industrial demand is expected to last until at least 2026, especially as demand from sectors like clean energy and electrification grows faster than mining output. This imbalance is more than a coincidence, it reflects a causal gap that may sustain silver prices at or above the 50 USD/ounce level, potentially leading to new price records.

Furthermore, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) recently classified silver as a "Strategic Mineral" in its 2025 list. As explained by Dr. Nguyễn Quang Huy, head of the Finance-Banking Department at Nguyễn Trãi University, this designation underscores silver’s critical role in national security and economic infrastructure. The expansion of renewable energy and electric mobility solutions is expected to anchor long-term silver demand, intertwining financial and industrial drivers in a way that may allow silver to outperform gold in percentage gains during favorable market cycles.

Market Volatility and Investor Caution Remain Key

Despite the bullish narrative, analysts warn that precious metal markets do not move in linear trajectories. Periodic corrections are natural and necessary for price consolidation. Investors are advised to avoid emotional decision-making and linear expectations, instead maintaining a disciplined approach to portfolio construction.

Dr. Huy recommends enhancing analytical capacity, risk management skills, and emotional control to maintain composure during volatile periods. A diversified, well-structured portfolio can help weather short-term shocks.

Christopher Lewis of FX Empire emphasizes another point: while silver continues to break records, its rally is being accompanied by reduced trading volumes. This divergence between price movement and market participation may reflect structural fragility. Moreover, disparities between spot and futures prices, storage bottlenecks at the London Metal Exchange (LME), and short-covering dynamics are contributing to sudden reversals and heightened intraday volatility.

Lewis warns that silver prices could experience abrupt pullbacks, making it crucial for investors to implement strict position management protocols. Appropriate trade sizing and protective stop-loss strategies are vital to protect capital.

In summary, silver and gold are navigating a confluence of monetary and structural forces that support continued upward momentum. The likelihood of a December rate cut, coupled with industrial-driven demand and tightening supply for silver, suggests a favorable outlook for precious metals. However, the market’s volatile nature necessitates prudent strategy, data-based decisions, and emotional discipline. Investors who combine long-term vision with short-term risk management will be best positioned to capitalize on this evolving landscape.

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