Trump’s Vietnam Deal Shows China Tariffs Won’t Fall Much Further, Bloomberg Reports

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday evening that Hamas’ acceptance of a proposed ceasefire deal with Israel will only become clear in the next 24 hours.

Speaking to reporters in Washington after returning from an event in Iowa, Trump said “we will know in the next 24 hours whether Hamas has agreed to a ceasefire.”

Trump said earlier this week that Israel had accepted the conditions needed to finalize a 60-day ceasefire with Hamas, which is expected to help broker an end to the long-running conflict in the Middle East.

Reuters reported that Hamas was seeking clear guarantees that the ceasefire will eventually lead to the war’s end. Trump’s comments come as Israel kept up its offensive against the Palestinian group in Gaza, having launched a slew of aerial and ground strikes against the region over the past week.

A separate U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran appeared to be holding for a second week, with reports suggesting that Washington and Tehran will also hold renewed nuclear talks soon.

Source: Investing

As the US and EU hold trade negotiations, the bloc’s businesses are working behind the scenes to prevent harsh retaliation against US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, fearing such measures could lead to escalation and harm European industry. Major European firms like Mercedes-Benz and LVMH are urging against a tough stance on US tariffs and pushing the EU for a a quick deal, we’re told. Executives are lobbying to remove iconic American products like bourbon from a list of goods to be targeted in retaliation. While the commission signals one has softened as the July 9 deadline looms. Trump said his administration will start sending out letters to trading partners today setting unilateral tariff rates, with payments due Aug. 1. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen earlier reinforced her position that the EU aims for an agreement in principle with the US by the deadline.

China Tension | The Chinese government intends to cancel part of a summit with EU leaders planned for later this month, in the latest sign of the tensions between Brussels and Beijing. The second day of the two-day summit in China is set to be canceled at Beijing’s request, we’re told.

AI Backlash | Representatives from more than 45 European organizations are calling on the EU to delay the implementation of rules on AI. Companies including ASML, Airbus and Mistral AI warned that the landmark regulation would threaten the continent’s AI ambitions and called for a more “innovation-friendly” approach.

Export Strain | ECB officials warned that the euro’s appreciation and uncertainty over trade could hurt exports and cloud the euro zone’s economic outlook, according to a summary of their meeting in June. While this year’s rally in the euro has helped curb inflation, further gains risk damaging the competitiveness of exporters.

Banking Deadlock | Chancellor Friedrich Merz reaffirmed Germany’s opposition to a joint EU deposit insurance, a scheme sought by the bloc to deepen financial ties. In comments met with applause at a banking forum in Berlin, Merz said there’s no reason to pool national liability systems across member states.

Ukraine Talks | Trump said he was “very disappointed” with a phone yesterday with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. The US leader said he’s set to speak today with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who said he plans to discuss the US decision to halt the transfer of artillery rounds and air defenses.

Sky Shield | Switzerland and Germany have agreed to jointly purchase air defense systems under the European Sky Shield Initiative. The move is in line with Switzerland’s new strategy to source more arms from Europe and counter supply-chain strains by deepening cross-border collaboration.

Greek Recovery | Once teetering on the edge of economic collapse at the peak of its debt crisis in 2015, Greece has staged a turnaround and is now outperforming many of its euro zone peers on several fronts. A decade on, the country boasts renewed investor confidence.

Scorching Europe | The worst of the heat wave that’s gripping Europe is moving toward central and southeastern parts of the continent, with Austria and Serbia facing blistering temperatures. Public services are under strain as emergency crews battle wildfires near Athens and on the island of Crete.

Investors in Romanian sovereign bonds are welcoming measures to curb the budget deficit, with the reduced risk of a credit-rating cut likely to extend a rally in the country's debt securities. The government plans to present the package including spending cuts and tax increases at next week's meeting of EU finance ministers, as it tries to rein in the EU’s widest fiscal gap.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

Oil futures fell on Friday after Iran reaffirmed its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation and amid expectations that major producers are set to agree to raise their output this weekend.

Brent crude futureswere down 22 cents, or 0.32%, to $68.58 a barrel by 0445 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crudefell 12 cents, or 0.18%, to $66.88.

Trade was thinned by the U.S. Independence Day holiday.

U.S. news website Axios reported on Thursday that the U.S. was planning to meet with Iran next week to restart nuclear talk, while Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran remains committed to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

"Thursday's news that the U.S. is preparing to resume nuclear talks with Iran, and Araqchi’s clarification that cooperation with the U.N. atomic agency has not been halted considerably eases the threat of a fresh outbreak of hostilities," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

Araqchi's comments came a day after Tehran enacted a law suspending cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.

"But the price correction may have to wait till Monday, when the U.S. reopens from a long weekend and takes in Sunday's OPEC+ decision, which is likely to be another 411,000 barrels per day target hike in August," Hari said.

OPEC+, the world's largest group of oil producers, is set to announce an increase of 411,000 bpd in production for August as it looks to regain market share, four delegates from the group told Reuters.

Meanwhile, uncertainty over U.S.tariffpolicies was renewed as the end of a 90-day pause on higher levy rates approaches.

Washington will start sending letters to countries on Friday specifying what tariff rates they will face on goods sent to the United States, a clear shift from earlier pledges to strike scores of individual trade deals.

PresidentDonald Trumptold reporters before departing for Iowa on Thursday that the letters would be sent to 10 countries at a time, laying out tariff rates of 20% to 30%.

Trump's 90-day pause on higher U.S. tariffs ends on July 9, and several large trading partners have yet to clinch trade deals, including the European Union and Japan.

The U.S. imposed sanctions on Thursday against a network that smuggles Iranian oil disguised as Iraqi oil and on a Hezbollah-controlled financial institution, the Treasury Department said.

Saudi Arabian Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman met with President Trump and other officials at the White House, however, to discuss de-escalation efforts with Iran, media reports said.

Trump also said on Thursday that he would meet with representatives of Iran "if necessary".

Separately, Barclays said it raised its Brent oil price forecast by $6 to $72 per barrel for 2025 and by $10 to $70 a barrel for 2026 on an improved outlook for demand.

Source: TradingView

Trader Tardigrade, on July 1, 2025, highlighted Dogecoin's breakout above its 50-day descending trendline, suggesting a bullish reversal.

Analyst statements indicate potential for sustained DOGE momentum, impacting short-term market dynamics.

DOGE's recent breakout above a prominent 50-day descending trendline, highlighted by Trader Tardigrade on social media, has sparked significant interest among market participants. Analysts suggest this technical pattern may lead to further price increases if bullish sentiment persists.

On July 1, 2025, Trader Tardigrade emphasized Dogecoin's critical trendline breakout, gaining traction in trading circles. No statements from co-founder Billy Markus or Dogecoin developers accompany this event. Jonathan Carter has also pointed to potential price targets, though with caution.

Following the breakout, DOGE's price has risen, attempting to maintain a position above $0.17. Market activity is reported as elevated, while analysts consider this a potential catalyst for further gain. No change has been seen in other cryptocurrencies directly related to DOGE's movement.

The crypto community is actively observing the DOGE trendline breakout. Given past historical trends, Dogecoin has demonstrated steep short-term increases during similar technical events. Speculation abounds on whether this breakout heralds a repeat of such dynamics. Analysts advocate caution, yet suggest readiness for substantial fluctuation.

This trendline breakout has triggered much anticipation among investors regarding potential increases. While the breakout generates excitement, market dynamics remain uncertain. Historical patterns indicate a possibility of short-lived yet remarkable advances. Market forecasts and price predictions seek to balance optimism with reality, attentive to regulatory and technological shifts.

Source: CryptoSlate

The link between heat and key economic indicators such as inflation and gross domestic product is too important to ignore, according to European Central Bank Executive Board member Frank Elderson.

“We have progressed in understanding that accounting for the climate and nature crises is relevant,” Elderson said in an interview. “If you think about the exceptionally hot summer of 2022, food-price inflation was up between 0.4 and 0.9 percentage points” and “there was quite a measurable hit on German GDP.”

“So these things are relevant,” he said.

The comments coincide with another European heat wave in which much of the region has experienced unusually high temperatures fueled by climate change. Scientists have found that a hotter planet has the potential to threaten price stability, in part as crops become more difficult to tend and food prices rise.

Against that backdrop, the ECB is now intensifying its efforts to deal with climate-related economic risks. That includes adjustments unveiled this week showing that it will fully take into account not just the implications of climate change, but also “nature degradation” when setting monetary policy.

The decision represents an “important addition” to the wording used by the central bank, Elderson said on the sidelines of the ECB’s annual conference in Sintra, Portugal.

The new focus on nature-related risks will eventually feed into various aspects of the ECB’s efforts to ensure price stability and to supervise Europe’s systemically important banks.

The approach is in stark contrast to that of the Federal Reserve. While Chair Jerome Powell has in the past acknowledged the threats that climate change poses to the US economy and financial system, he’s also repeatedly stressed that the Fed doesn’t have a mandate to foster a low-carbon transition.

“You heard me say over and over again that we will not be climate policymakers,” Powell said during a press conference in May. “Our role on climate is a very, very narrow one.”

The Fed’s efforts to downplay the relevance of climate change in safeguarding financial stability have also encompassed interventions to water down global standards, including those set by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Bloomberg has previously reported.

Elderson said that “whilst there’s a backlash out there,” the ECB Governing Council “sticks to its guns and actually adds to that to say we now understand on the basis of the work that has been done that we need to think beyond just what climate means for price stability.”

The ECB is still studying events such as the summer of 2022 and its impact on inflation and GDP to get a sense of what’s ahead, Elderson said.

Nature risk, meanwhile, “is complicated because there is not one single metric like CO2,” Elderson said. Instead, “you have to look at fish stocks, you have to look at timber, you have to look at the soils, you have to look at water scarcity and water quality.”

In the short term, there will be “more research, more outreach,” he said. “Then we need to ask: what does this mean for our understanding of the economy, for our understanding of inflation? What does it mean for debt sustainability?”

Ultimately, the response may be similar to the ECB’s efforts to tackle climate risk, he added.

“Whenever we design an instrument or whenever we think about collateral or when we think about tilting of asset purchases at some point in the future, we take this into account,” he said. “If you were to close your eyes to that, you would also miss an important part of credit risk for at least some of the banks that we supervise.”

Source: Bloomberg Europe

U.S. President Donald Trump said early on Friday he came away disappointed from a telephone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin because it does not appear the latter is looking to stop Russia's war against Ukraine.

U.S. attempts to end Russia's war in Ukraine through diplomacy have largely stalled, and Trump has faced growing calls - including from some Republicans - to increase pressure on Putin to negotiate in earnest.

After speaking to Putin on Thursday, Trump plans to speak to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday, he said in remarks to reporters on his return to Washington from a trip to Iowa.

"I'm very disappointed with the conversation I had today with President Putin, because I don't think he's there, and I'm very disappointed," Trump said.

"I'm just saying I don't think he's looking to stop, and that's too bad."

The two leaders did not discuss a recent pause in some U.S. weapons shipments to Kyiv during the nearly hour-long conversation, a summary provided by Putin aide Yuri Ushakov showed.

Within hours of their concluding the call, an apparent Russian drone attack sparked a fire in an apartment building in a northern suburb of Kyiv, Ukrainian officials said, indicating little change in the trajectory of the conflict.

In Kyiv itself, Reuters witnesses reported explosions and sustained heavy machine-gun fire as air defense units battled drones over the capital, while Russian shelling killed five people in the east.

"I didn't make any progress with him at all," Trump told reporters on Thursday.

Zelenskiy told reporters in Denmark earlier in the day that he hopes to speak to Trump as soon as Friday about the pause in some weapons shipments first disclosed this week.

Speaking to reporters as he left Washington for Iowa, Trump said "we haven't" completely paused the flow of weapons but blamed his predecessor, Joe Biden, for sending so many weapons that it risked weakening U.S. defenses.

"We're giving weapons, but we've given so many weapons. But we are giving weapons," he said.

"And we're working with them and trying to help them, but we haven't (completely stopped). You know, Biden emptied out our whole country giving them weapons, and we have to make sure that we have enough for ourselves."

The diplomatic back-and-forth comes as low stockpiles have prompted the U.S. to paused shipments of certain critical weapons to Ukraine, sources told Reuters earlier, just as it faces a Russian summer offensive and growing attacks on civilian targets.

Putin, for his part, has continued to assert he will stop his invasion only if the conflict's "root causes" have been tackled, making use of Russian shorthand for the issue of NATO enlargement and Western support for Ukraine, including the rejection of any notion of Ukraine joining the NATO alliance.

Russian leaders are also angling to establish greater control over political decisions made in Kyiv and other Eastern European capitals, NATO leaders have said.

The pause in U.S. weapons shipments caught Ukraine off-guard and has generated widespread confusion about Trump's current views on the conflict, after saying just last week he would try to free up a Patriot missile defense system for use by Kyiv.

Ukrainian leaders called in the acting U.S. envoy to Kyiv on Wednesday to underline the importance of military aid from Washington, and caution that the pause in its weapons shipments would weaken Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia.

The Pentagon's move has meant a cut in deliveries of the Patriot defense missiles that Ukraine relies on to destroy fast-moving ballistic missiles, Reuters reported on Wednesday.

Ushakov, the Kremlin aide, said that while Russia was open to continuing to speak with the U.S., any peace negotiations needed to happen between Moscow and Kyiv.

That comment comes amid some signs that Moscow is trying to avoid a three-way format for possible peace talks. The Russians asked American diplomats to leave the room during such a meeting in Istanbul in early June, Ukrainian officials have said.

Trump and Putin did not talk about a face-to-face meeting, Ushakov said.

Source: Reuters