Trump’s Nominee to Oversee Jobs, Inflation Data Faces Shower of Criticism

Economic

Summary:

Trump’s pick of Heritage Foundation economist E.J. Antoni to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics has sparked bipartisan criticism, with opponents warning it risks politicizing the nation’s jobs and inflation data.

The director of the agency that produces the nation’s jobs and inflation data is typically a mild-mannered technocrat, often with extensive experience in statistical agencies, with little public profile.

But like so much in President Donald Trump’s second administration, this time is different.

Trump has selected E.J. Antoni, chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation, to be the next commissioner at the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. Antoni’s nomination was quickly met with a cascade of criticism from other economists, from across the political spectrum.

His selection threatens to bring a new level of politicization to what for decades has been a nonpartisan agency widely accepted as a producer of reliable measures of the nation’s economic health. While many former Labor Department officials say it it unlikely Antoni will be able to distort or alter the data, particularly in the short run, he could change the currently dry-as-dust way it is presented.

Antoni was nominated by Trump after the BLS released a jobs report Aug. 1 that showed that hiring had weakened in July and was much lower in May and June than the agency had previously reported. Trump, without evidence, charged that the data had been “rigged” for political reasons and fired the then-BLS chair, Erika McEntarfer, much to the dismay of many within the agency.

Antoni has been a vocal critic of the government’s jobs data in frequent appearances on podcasts and cable TV. His partisan commentary is unusual for someone who may end up leading the BLS.

For instance, on Aug. 4 — a week before he was nominated — Antoni said in an interview on Fox News Digital that the Labor Department should stop publishing the monthly jobs reports until its data collection processes improve, and rely on quarterly data based on actual employment filings with state unemployment offices.

The monthly employment reports are probably the closest-watched economic data on Wall Street, and can frequently cause swings in stock prices.

When asked at Tuesday’s White House briefing whether the jobs report would continue to be released, press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the administration hoped it would be.

“I believe that is the plan and that’s the hope,” Leavitt said.

Leavitt also defended Antoni’s nomination, calling him an “economic expert” who has testified before Congress and adding that, “the president trusts him to lead this important department.”

Yet Antoni’s TV and podcast appearances have created more of a portrait of a conservative ideologue, instead of a careful economist who considers tradeoffs and prioritizes getting the math correct.

“There’s just nothing in his writing or his resume to suggest that he’s qualified for the position, besides that he is always manipulating the data to favor Trump in some way,” said Brian Albrecht, chief economist at the International Center for Law and Economics.

Antoni wrongly claimed in the last year of Biden’s presidency that the economy had been in recession since 2022; called on the entire Federal Reserve board to be fired for not earning a profit on its Treasury securities holdings; and posted a chart on social media that conflated timelines to suggest inflation was headed to 15%.

His argument that the U.S. was in a recession rested on a vastly exaggerated measure of housing inflation, based on newly-purchased home prices, to artificially make the nation’s gross domestic product appear smaller than it was.

“This is actually maybe the worst Antoni content I’ve seen yet,” Alan Cole of the center-right Tax Foundation said on social media, referring to his recession claim.

On a 2024 podcast, Antoni wanted to sunset Social Security payments for workers paying into the system, saying that “you’ll need a generation of people who pay Social Security taxes but never actually receive any of those benefits.” As head of the BLS, Antoni would oversee the release of the consumer price index by which Social Security payments are adjusted for inflation.

Many economists share, to some degree, Antoni’s concerns that the government’s jobs data has flaws and is threatened by trends such as declining response rates to its surveys. The drop has made the jobs figures more volatile, though not necessarily less accurate over time.

“The stock market moves clearly based on these job numbers, and so people with skin in the game think it’s telling them something about the future of their investments,” Albrecht said. “Could it be improved? Absolutely.”

Katharine Abraham, an economist at the University of Maryland who was BLS Commissioner under President Bill Clinton, said updating the jobs report’s methods would require at least some initial investment.

The government could use more modern data sources, she said, such as figures from payroll processing companies, and fill in gaps with surveys.

“There’s an inconsistency between saying you want higher response rates and you want to spend less money,” she said, referring to the administration’s proposals to cut BLS funding.

Still, Abraham and other former BLS commissioners don’t think Antoni, if confirmed, would be able to alter the figures. He could push for changes in the monthly press release and seek to portray the numbers in a more positive light.

William Beach, who was appointed BLS commissioner by Trump in his first term and also served under Biden, said he is confident that BLS procedures are strong enough to prevent political meddling. He said he didn’t see the figures himself until two days before publication when he served as commissioner.

“The commissioner does not affect the numbers,’’ Beach said. “They don’t collect the data. They don’t massage the data. They don’t organize it.”

Regarding the odds of rigging the numbers, Beach said, “I wouldn’t put it at complete zero, but I’d put it pretty close to zero.’’

It took about six months after McEntarfer was nominated in July 2023 for her to be approved. Antoni will likely face stiff opposition from Democrats, but that may not be enough to derail his appointment.

Sen. Patty Murray, a senior Democrat from Washington, on Tuesday slammed Antoni as “an unqualified right-wing extremist” and demanded that the GOP chairman of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, hold a confirmation hearing for him.

Source: AP

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Michelle

Commodity

Oil prices continued to edge lower this morning following a triangle breakout which could lead to a potential $12 move to the downside.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced on Wednesday that it expects oil supply to grow more this year but has reduced its forecast for demand because of weak fuel usage in major economies.

This comes a day after OPEC + released their monthly report yesterday. The OPEC + report saw the group raise its global oil demand forecast in a move that contradicts the IEA forecast today. Thesis is not a surprise as we have seen this diverging outlooks between the two organizations over the last few years.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has updated its oil market forecasts with several key highlights. Global oil supply is now expected to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, higher than the previous forecast of a 2.1 million bpd rise, following the latest production hike by OPEC+. In August, global crude oil refining is projected to reach nearly a record high of 85.6 million bpd.

However, the IEA has slightly lowered its demand growth forecasts. The average oil demand growth for 2026 has been revised down to 700,000 bpd from the earlier estimate of 720,000 bpd. Similarly, the 2025 oil demand growth forecast has been trimmed to 680,000 bpd, compared to the previous projection of 700,000 bpd.

Trump-Putin Meeting to Serve as a Catalyst?

The White House said Tuesday that Friday’s Alaska meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is meant to be a “listening session” for the president, lowering hopes for a quick Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement.

Market participants are already eyeing positive developments from the meeting but either way the meeting could be a catalyst for Oil prices.

Key challenges remain before the talks. Trump has suggested that both sides may need to give up land to end the three-and-a-half-year conflict. A resolution could ease some of the sanction concerns affecting the market. Meanwhile, oil prices have fallen, even though US inflation data yesterday strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.

Looking Ahead

Oil prices are edging lower ahead of the Trump-Putin meeting which could dominate Oil price moves the rest of this week.

Risk-On sentiment has returned and yet Oil prices continue to struggle. Later in the day we will get another look at inventories data after API numbers were released yesterday.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Technical Analysis – WTI

From a technical analysis standpoint, Oil has broken below the triangle pattern and the 200-day MA resting around the 64.73 handle.

The breakout could lead to a long term drop toward the $52 a barrel mark based on the technical setup in play.

The RSI period-14 has yet to enter oversold territory, which hints that further downside could materialize in the days ahead.

Immediate support rests at 60.77 before the psychological 60.00 handle comes into focus.

Looking at the upside, resistance rests at 64.00 before the confluence level around the 64.73 handle comes into focus. Acceptance above this level, a move beyond the 65.00 handle could come into play.

WTI Oil Daily Chart, August 13, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Source: ACTIONFOREX

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Economic

U.S. stock futures climb on Wednesday, suggesting more gains ahead for Wall Street after tepid inflation data drove the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to all-time closing peaks. Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) is due to report, with analysts keeping their eyes peeled for the network equipment provider’s outlook for its 2026 fiscal year. Elsewhere, Perplexity AI offers $34.5 billion to buy Google’s Chrome browser.

Futures rise

Futures contracts linked to the largest U.S. indices rose, pointing to an extension in gains logged in the prior session that were fueled by muted inflation figures.

By 03:36 ET (07:36 GMT), the S&P 500 futures contract had advanced by 33 points, or 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had climbed by 264 points, or 1.1%, and Dow futures had gained 49 points, or 0.1%.

All three of the major averages on Wall Street rallied by more than 1% on Tuesday, spurred on by data showing that headline year-over-year consumer price growth in July matched the preceding month. The numbers bolstered wagers that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting next month, with officials at the central bank seen opting to prioritize supporting a flagging labor market over still above-target price gains.

"Inflation was broadly in line with expectations as tariffs continue to be largely absorbed within U.S. corporate profit margins. This gives the Fed the room to respond to the weaker jobs backdrop," analysts at ING said in a note.

Both the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq notched fresh record closing highs, while yields on short-dated U.S. Treasuries -- which are particularly sensitive to rate expectations -- dipped. Yields tend to move inversely to prices.

Cisco to report

On the earnings calendar, Cisco Systems is set to kick off a string of releases from companies whose reporting quarter finished at the end of July.

The results, due out after the closing bell, are anticipated to beat expectations thanks partially to "general strength" in Cisco’s firewalls business and cybersecurity subscribers, according to analysts at Piper Sandler.

"Cisco is still experiencing net-momentum into the second half, with early networking prints a good signal for the space and 2026 likely a good refresh period," the analysts led by James Fish wrote.

They added that Cisco’s fiscal year 2026 guidance will be "key," particularly after Mark Patterson replaced Scott Herren as the firm’s finance chief. Herren, who retired in July, is leaving after Cisco raised its fiscal 2025 results outlook, banking on artificial intelligence helping to sustain demand from cloud customers for its networking equipment.

Observers also noted that the contribution of Splunk (NASDAQ:SPLK), the cybersecurity group Cisco bought for $28 billion in 2024, will now be folded into the company’s organic numbers. The transaction was the largest in Cisco’s history and reflected a push to more deeply integrate AI into its operations.

Perplexity’s $34.5 bn bid for Google’s Chrome

Perplexity AI has put forward a $34.5 billion unsolicited all-cash offer to buy Alphabet-owned Google’s Chrome brower, marking a push by the startup to harness the data needed to train its AI model from the service’s billions of users.

The news comes as Google faces a legal battle over antitrust concerns surrounding its all-important search business.

Last year, a U.S. judge ruled that Google had spent billion of dollars to illegally create a monopoly that made it the world’s dominant search engine. The decision cleared the way for a number of potential fixes, including the breaking up of Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) through a sale of Chrome. Such a move could fundamentally alter the world of online advertising that has long been a centerpiece of Google’s operations.

Perplexity, which previously submitted a bid for TikTok US as the short-form video app dealt with concerns in Washington around its Chinese ownership, did not disclose how it plans to fund its bid. The firm was last valued at $14 billion, and has raised roughly $1 billion in backing from investors like SoftBank (TYO:9984) and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA).

Ether near all-time peak

Bitcoin gained slightly, while Ether hovered around record highs as cryptocurrency markets rallied on the mild U.S. consumer inflation data.

Ether also surged amid a flurry of buying as corporate entities stockpile the world no. 2 cryptocurrency in a manner similar to Bitcoin. The digital token rose as much as 8.5% to $4,683.0, coming within touching distance of a $4,861 record high hit in November 2021.

Several U.S.-listed companies outlined plans to increase their Ether holdings this week amid growing adoption of a Bitcoin buying strategy popularized by Michael Saylor’s Strategy.

The world’s biggest corporate Bitcoin holder, Strategy has raised billions of dollars through share issuances, which it has then largely used to fund Bitcoin purchases over the last two years.

Gold inches higher

Gold prices pushed up in early European trading, supported by hopes for Fed policy easing, while investors also looked ahead to U.S.-Russia talks due later this week.

Spot gold had risen by 0.3% to $3,359.54 an ounce, while gold futures for December climbed by 0.3% to $3,408.22/oz by 03:35 ET.

Following Tuesday’s muted inflation figures, markets are now pricing in a more than 96% probability of a September cut, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, making bullion more attractive to investors.

However, gold’s advance was tempered by geopolitical developments, with traders closely watching Friday’s summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska.

The meeting will focus on the war in Ukraine, and market participants are weighing the possibility of proposals for a ceasefire.

Source: investing

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Stocks

Forex

Key points:

● MSCI EM stocks up 1.7%, FX up 0.3%

● Zelenskiy, European leaders to speak to Trump ahead of Alaska summit

● Thailand cuts interest rates by 25 bps

Emerging market equities jumped on Wednesday, lifting a key stocks gauge to its highest in nearly four years on hopes the Federal Reserve will trim rates next month.The MSCI global EM equity gaugeCBOE:EFSjumped 1.7%, hitting its highest since Nov. 2021, helped by strong gains in Asian stocks. A similar gauge for currencies edged up 0.3%.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Indexjumped 2.6%, logging its strongest intraday performance in over three months. South Koreanrose 1.1%, while Indonesian equitiesrose to their highest in nearly 11 months.Thai stocksjumped 1.6% after the central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected. The bahtgained marginally.Emerging market currencies rose at the expense of the dollaras Tuesday's tame U.S. inflation data and a recent dismal jobs report cemented expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut next month.

CME FedWatch now pegs the probability of a September cut at 97%, up from about 86% a day earlier and just 57% a month ago."Markets were reassured because the tariff impact on inflation didn't look so obvious this time," Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note.Momentum in central and eastern European stocks and currencies was subdued compared to Asia. Equities in Polandslipped 0.3%, while Romania's stocksinched up 0.4%.

Czech'sand Hungary'sbenchmark indexes held steady.

Markets tracked Wednesday's virtual sit‑down between European and Ukrainian leaders and U.S. President Donald Trump before the latter's summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday.The unpredictability of how the summit will play out has fanned European jitters that the two leaders could cut sweeping deals, or strong‑arm Ukraine into accepting a deal that forces it to surrender a significant amount of land.Ukraine's international dollar bonds slipped for the second day."The market seems to be lowering its expectations for the outcome of Friday's talks," said Frantisek Taborsky

EMEA FX & FI Strategist at ING.

"It seems that the market has slightly overestimated the outcome, and the risk is becoming more symmetrical again, but still biased towards losses in case of a collapse in negotiations."Meanwhile, South African equitiesjumped 1.1% to a record high, while the randgained 0.3% JPMorgan said on Tuesday the recently imposed 30% U.S. tariffs on South African exports are expected to have a limited effect on the country's assets, as markets have "largely priced in the reality of higher tariff headwinds".The country's business confidence and retail sales figures are due later in the day.Elsewhere, stocks in Israeljumped 1.8%, recovering from a steep fall in the previous session.

Source: TradingView

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Stocks

Asia Market Wrap - RBA Cuts Rates, Nikkei Hits Fresh All-Time Highs

apan's Nikkei index hit a new milestone on Wednesday, crossing the 43,000 mark for the first time ever. The broader Topix index also reached a record high, following strong gains in Wall Street overnight and marking six straight days of growth.

The Nikkei rose by as much as 1.7% to a high of 43,451.46 before closing at a record 43,274.67. This brings its total gain to 7.4% since August 4. Monday was a public holiday in Japan.

The MSCI All Country World Index rose by 0.2% to a record high, following Wall Street's climb to new peaks. Markets are almost fully expecting a 0.25% interest rate cut by the Fed next month. Asian shares also performed well, rising 1.1%, with Shanghai stocks hitting their highest level since December 2021.

European Open - Shares to Record Highs

Global stock markets reached a record high on Wednesday following the European Open.

The MSCI All Country World Index rose for the second day, hitting a record high of 950.13. European stocks went up by 0.5%, with German stocks increasing by 0.6%. Tech and defense stocks were the main drivers of the gains.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were both up 0.14% and 0.20% respectively.

On the FX front, the dollar index, which measures the dollar against other major currencies, dropped to 97.76, its lowest since July 28, after falling 0.5% on Tuesday.

This weakness boosted the euro, which rose 0.3% to $1.1709, briefly hitting its highest since July 28. The British pound also gained 0.4% to $1.3562, its highest since July 24.

The Australian dollar increased by 0.35% to $0.6552, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.5% to $0.5986.

In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin paused its rally and fell slightly by 0.34% to $119,809. Meanwhile, Ether reached a nearly four-year high of $4,679.

Currency Power Balance

Looking at commodities, Gold prices went up on Wednesday as mild inflation data increased expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in September. A weaker dollar also boosted demand for gold.

Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,354.77 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery edged up 0.1% to $3,403.20.

Oil prices dropped on Wednesday after the IEA reported that supply is expected to exceed demand this year. Investors are also watching for Friday's meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Brent crude fell by 45 cents (0.7%) to $65.67 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 53 cents (0.8%) to $62.64 per barrel.

Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts

Looking at the economic calendar, a quiet day lies ahead.

The biggest events for the day will be EIA oil inventories data as well as a host of Federal Reserve policymakers who are scheduled to speak.

Lastly, we will get the Bank of Canada meeting minutes release which will be interesting to see in light of the RBA decision to cut rates and expectations that other Central Banks will follow suit.

Chart of the Day - FTSE Index

From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 advanced but has failed to break above the recent all-time highs just shy of the 9200 level.

We have seen multiple rejections of this level in recent days and it appears some form of catalyst may be needed to get the Index across the line.

In what could be seen as a sign of the bearish pressure, the RSI did not even make it to overbought territory before the rejection.

The question now becomes, is this a small pullback before an attempt to break beyond the 9200 handle?

On the support side we have the 9150 and 9132 support areas which if they hold could help the FTSE 100 print fresh highs.

FTSE Daily Chart, August 13. 2025

Source: marketpulse

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Warren Takunda

Stocks

London stocks had pared gains by midday on Wednesday in quiet trade, but the mood remained upbeat after the latest US inflation reading raised hopes of a September rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

The FTSE 100 was up 0.1% at 9,154.43.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said: "Animal spirits are definitely in charge of the market right now, as investors embrace the potential for the Fed to cut interest rates in the wake of what was seen as a soft inflation reading in the US.

"The US central bank still remains in cautious mode, waiting to observe if tariffs stoke a pick-up in prices for US consumers. While that might be a prudent approach, the longer tariffs don’t show up in the inflation data, the greater the pressure grows on Jerome Powell and the interest rate committee to cut rates.

"While there are only tentative signs of tariffs showing up in US consumer prices, they may be more of a subtle, slow burn which aren’t immediately apparent in the headline rate right now. Trump thinks foreign exporters will take the hit rather than passing tariffs onto US consumers. Only time will tell whether he’s right about that, but it’s at least plausible that companies might accept lower profit margins only temporarily, especially while there is so much tariff uncertainty. Policymakers and consumers outside the US might also take note there is nothing stopping global companies from seeking to defray the cost of tariffs by ultimately raising prices outside the US, as well as within it."

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with Fox Business on Tuesday that the Fed should be open to a 50 basis point rate cut next month.

In equity markets, construction and infrastructure products group Hill & Smith surged as it announced a £100m share buyback programme after reporting strong cash generation and a double-digit increase in underlying profits in the first half.

Quilter was also in the black after an upgrade to ‘buy’ from ‘hold’ by Berenberg, which cited an improved outlook for the business.

Genuit - formerly Polypipe - rallied as RBC Capital Markets upgraded the stock to ‘outperform’ from ‘sector perform’, saying the company was geared for growth.

On the downside, specialist insurer Beazley tumbled as it posted a drop in first-half profit and cut its full-year premium growth guidance.

Housebuilder Persimmon fell after saying it still expects to deliver between 11,000 and 11,500 completions for the full year despite challenging market conditions and the prospect of tax rises in October’s Budget.

Infrastructure group Balfour Beatty lost ground even as it backed its full-year expectations, reporting an increase in first-half profit as strength in the UK construction business offset US weakness.

Outside the FTSE 350, discount shoe retailer Shoe Zone tanked after halving its full-year profit guidance and cancelling its dividend.

Source: Sharecast

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Michelle

Commodity

Economic

The impact of this year’s dramatic policy reversal by OPEC+ is now becoming clear.

This week’s reports from two of the oil industry’s bedrock institutions illustrate the effects of the cartel’s move — finalized earlier this month — to fast-track the revival of halted production.

The International Energy Agency almost tripled the size of the global surplus it anticipates this year since Saudi Arabia and partners started opening the taps in April. That forecast now stands at just under 1.8 million barrels a day.

For next year, the IEA anticipates a record glut of nearly 3 million barrels a day, even surpassing — in annual average terms — the stockpile flood unleashed during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.

The IEA’s American counterpart, the US Energy Information Administration, boosted estimates for the overhang from October through March by two-thirds in its latest monthly update.

Admittedly, the global oil demand outlook has wobbled during this period, assailed by China’s economic woes and US President Donald Trump’s tariff onslaught.

But the adjustment has primarily come about on the supply side of the ledger and, for that, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners are chiefly responsible.

The group’s champions will hail this as a success: OPEC+ managed to green-light the addition of 2.5 million barrels a day this year at the same time analysts said it wouldn’t be able to add any without triggering a massive price crash.

Oil bulls could argue that predictions of coming gluts have proved unfounded before and that, for all the current hoopla, inventories in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries remain near their lowest in decades.

Crude prices will continue finding a floor, they’ll contend, as long as China remains ready to scoop up bargain barrels to fill its capacious strategic reserves.

Nonetheless, the months ahead are set to test OPEC’s resolve.

If, as officials say, the Saudis are committed to recouping market share, then they’ll be willing to ride out the coming price storm.

But with Brent futures below $66 a barrel even before the looming stockpile wave hits, Riyadh could choose the option — signaled earlier this month — of reversing course.