Trump Warns Air Traffic Controllers To Work Or Get ‘Docked’

Economic

Summary:

President Donald Trump urged air traffic controllers who have missed work during the government shutdown to return to their posts, threatening to withhold pay for those who do not show up as travelers in the US face flight delays and cancellations.

"All Air Traffic Controllers must get back to work, NOW!!! Anyone who doesn't will be substantially 'docked,'" Trump wrote in a Truth Social post Monday.

Air traffic controllers have worked without pay since the shutdown began on Oct. 1.

Trump also pledged a bonus for those who continued working during the funding impasse. "For those Air Traffic Controllers who were GREAT PATRIOTS, and didn't take ANY TIME OFF for the 'Democrat Shutdown Hoax,' I will be recommending a BONUS of $10,000 per person for distinguished service to our Country," he said.

Any such payment, however, would need to be approved by lawmakers and is not part of the deal to end the impasse that is moving through Congress. That bill also guarantees that all federal workers receive full backpay for the duration of the shutdown and would recall government employees laid off during the closure.

Trump's comments follow a group of centrist Democrats who broke ranks to back a plan to end the funding impasse, now in its 41st day.

Flight delays have raised pressure on lawmakers to bring an end to the spending fight and the government has mandated restrictions on travel at key hubs across the country, citing staff shortages. Air traffic controllers have called in sick at higher rates as they are being forced to work for weeks without pay.

This past weekend, the Federal Aviation Administration posted notices of additional airports or airspace in the US that faced delays due to a shortage of staff.

Snow in Chicago, one of the country's busiest hubs, compounded those traffic issues on Monday. Chicago O'Hare International Airport, LaGuardia Airport and Newark Liberty International Airport saw the highest number of cancellations with at least 8% of the scheduled total. Delta Air Lines Inc. had the largest amount of canceled flights.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Adam

Economic

What happened last week

Longest shut down in history: The US government shutdown has extended beyond five weeks, becoming the longest federal closure in American history. Operational disruptions intensified, with 40 major airports implementing 10% flight reductions due to staffing shortages. November food assistance distribution was uncertain until a federal judge mandated full disbursement. Trump attributed Republican electoral defeats, including the New York City mayoral race, to the prolonged shutdown.

RBA and BoE on hold: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained rates at 3.6% as trimmed mean inflation accelerated to 3.0%, signalling cuts remain unlikely until second quarter 2026 as some indicators demonstrate labour market tightness. The Bank of England (BoE) delivered a dovish hold via 5-4 vote, indicating gradual easing ahead if disinflation continues. AUD and GBP returned -0.8% and 0.2% respectively against USD last week.

Confusing labour market data: With official data suspended amid government shutdown, US investors shifted focus to private surveys. ADP reported 42,000 private sector additions in October following September's upwardly revised 29,000 contraction. However, Challenger disclosed 153,074 October layoffs and 35% year-on-year (YoY) hiring decline due to cost cutting and artificial intelligence (AI) adoption. Furloughed federal workers may push unemployment to 4.7% when official reporting resumes.

China's trade data surprise: October exports contracted 1.1% YoY and 7.0% MoM, the first annual decline since February, as trade tensions intensified before the 30 October deal. Imports rose 1.0% YoY, below consensus, reflect sluggish domestic demand recovery.

Markets in focus

US equities correction: tactical pullback or structural shift?

US equity markets experienced substantial correction last week, driven by valuation concerns and unexpectedly elevated layoff statistics. Multiple Wall Street executives have assessed a significant probability of drawdowns exceeding 10% over the near to medium term. Technology stocks bore the brunt of the correction, with the Nasdaq 100 plunging 3.1% — the steepest weekly decline since 30 March — while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 1.6% and 1.2% respectively.

Equities trading at extreme valuations, such as Palantir, suffered pronounced declines despite robust earnings delivery. Market participants are demonstrating heightened sensitivity to earnings disappointments, applying disproportionate penalties relative to historical norms.

CNN's Fear & Greed Index declined to 21, indicating extreme fear sentiment. Certain investors regard this metric as a contrarian indicator, viewing extreme fear as potentially signalling market dislocation opportunities.

As highlighted in last week's market navigator, indicators of weakening bullish momentum had emerged, rendering this pullback unsurprising. The critical question centres on whether recent movements constitute a healthy correction or signal a bear market. Our view is that the former scenario appears more probable. Given that major indices have not experienced corrections exceeding 5% during the rapid rally since April, a drawdown of 5-10% represents normal market cycle behaviour and can establish a more robust foundation for sustainable uptrends. A decline extending beyond 15% would constitute an alarming signal.

From a technical perspective, the 20-day moving average (MA) has failed to provide support for the US Tech 100, implying the index maintains further downside potential. A 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent upward wave could direct the index towards 24,635. The critical support zone resides around 23,000. Failure to maintain support at that level would materially increase the probability of bear market development. Recovery attempts may encounter resistance near 25,500.

Figure 1: US Tech 100 index (daily) price chart

as of 9 Nov 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Hopes reignited in Hang Seng Index

Although the Trump-Xi summit in Busan failed to catalyse market sentiment improvement in the previous week, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) appeared to establish support near 25,500 during recent consolidation, advancing 1.3% weekly. However, declaring the correction complete remains premature.

The macroeconomic environment remained mixed, as October trade activities disappointed just as market participants began responding positively to lower-than-anticipated US export dependence revealed in year-to-September data. Meanwhile, encouraging signs emerged on the inflation front. Consumer prices rose 0.2% YoY in October, the fastest pace since January. While producer prices continued declining, the contraction moderated from September's -2.3% to -2.1% in October, suggesting the government's efforts to combat 'involution' may be gaining traction.

Consumption-oriented equities registered the largest movements within the HSI last week. Beverage manufacturer Tingyi emerged as the best-performing constituent, gaining 11.4% on improved profit outlook. New Oriental Education declined 10.4% following management restructuring announcements, while Chow Tai Fook retreated 9.1%. Gold price volatility and China's value-added tax (VAT) policy modifications may substantially impact gold jewellery demand.

The index's swift Wednesday rebound demonstrates significant support at the 25,000 level. Nevertheless, declaring the correction complete remains premature, as a death cross between the 20-day and 50-day MA has materialised. Additionally, a typical corrective Wave C within Elliott Wave theory has not fully developed. Usually, this downward leg's magnitude would minimally equal corrective Wave A, targeting approximately 24,316. Conversely, should recovery persist towards the ascending channel pattern established since mid-April, the recent peak of 27,382 will provide key resistance.

Figure 2: Hang Seng Index (daily) price chart

as of 9 Nov 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance

EUR/USD demonstrates technical recovery signals

The US Dollar Index rally exhibits fatigue signals following three consecutive weeks of appreciation. The DXY retreated after briefly breaching the 100 level. Following the Federal Reserve's (Fed) October meeting statement, market participants have substantially reduced December rate reduction expectations. Probability pricing via bond futures markets fluctuated between 60% and 70% last week. US Treasury yields have correspondingly risen.

Fed governors maintain divided stances, with certain members emphasising inflation risks while others express concern regarding labour market deceleration. Material volatility in risky assets could provide additional rationale for monetary policy loosening.

Conversely, the European Central Bank (ECB) expressed satisfaction with current monetary conditions, noting inflation has stabilised around the 2% target while economic downside risks have diminished, suggesting rate reductions are unlikely in the near term.

EUR/USD depreciated as much as 4% since peaking at 1.1918 in September, but the bearish movement appears to have found support from the 200-day MA around 1.1468. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator approaches a positive crossover, though recovery momentum sustainability depends upon EUR/USD's capacity to overcome 20-day MA resistance at 1.16. Breakthrough may suggest further upside potential towards 1.18. However, should the rebound prove unsuccessful, a deeper downtrend could trigger if the pair breaches August's low at 1.1391.

Figure 3: EUR/USD (daily) price chart

as of 9 Nov 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance

The week ahead

This week's economic calendar continues facing disruption as the ongoing US government shutdown threatens critical inflation data releases. The White House has indicated October's consumer price index (CPI) report may not be published, depriving markets of key inputs ahead of the Fed's December policy meeting. This uncertainty redirects focus toward growth indicators from the UK and China, alongside the final phase of US corporate earnings season.

UK growth dynamics assume prominence following the BoE's dovish hold at its November meeting. Unemployment data on Tuesday and third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data scheduled for Thursday will prove crucial in determining whether policymakers proceed with a December rate reduction. Market participants will scrutinise the quarterly growth figure, with weakness below the previous 0.3% reading potentially reinforcing monetary easing expectations.

China's October activity data on Friday presents another focal point, particularly following weak manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) readings and deteriorating trade statistics. Industrial production and retail sales figures will reveal whether additional stimulus measures are required amid persistent economic headwinds. Markets anticipate industrial output moderating to 5.6% YoY, while retail sales growth below 3% would mark the fifth consecutive month of deceleration.

On the corporate front, the US earnings season approaches its finale with AI infrastructure providers CoreWeave, Nebius and Cisco reporting. Attention then pivots to Chinese technology giants Tencent and JD.com on Thursday, whose results will illuminate consumer spending patterns and cloud computing demand. Major Japanese financial institutions including MUFG and Sumitomo Mitsui also report, offering insights into Japan's economic health.

Figure 4: UK economy weakens as unemployment trends up while growth slows down

Source: ig

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Adam

Commodity

Massive volumes of crude are now arriving from sea to shore, ending months of floating storage buildup. OPEC+’s pause signals awareness of the oversupply, while traders brace for a washout as inventories rise and volatility threatens to break higher.

Massive Crude Inventories Reported by the EIA

WTI is down -1.71% for the week. Open at $61.40, High at $61.50, Low at $58.83 and Close at $59.84.

Oil Price News: $60 WTI Faces More Pain Ahead_1

Department of energy EIA weekly storage

Oil Price News: $60 WTI Faces More Pain Ahead_2

Red: 2025 levels.

Still More Oil on the Move

Global seaborne arrivals of both sanctioned and unsanctioned barrels rose 18% w-o-w, with future arrivals modelled to rise further. Source: Vortexa

Oil Price News: $60 WTI Faces More Pain Ahead_3

Crude/cond on water (bn bbls, LHS) and global seaborne crude/cond arrivals (7-day MA) (mbd, RHS). Source: Vortexa

Global seaborne arrivals-both sanctioned and unsanctioned-rose 18% week-on-week, with forward models pointing higher. Source: Vortexa

Oil Price News: $60 WTI Faces More Pain Ahead_4

The glut is draining into storage: arrivals are up sharply. This isn’t conjecture or opinion; it’s data. It’s signal, not noise. Debate the “realness” of the glut all you like-what matters is facts. Not what you think should happen.

Oil Price News: $60 WTI Faces More Pain Ahead_5

Stick it in storage. Expect these charts to inflect up. Source: Vortexa

Over the past four months, crude is down -13.7%. Each dip has been met with the same chorus calling a bottom, each week proclaiming a rally that never comes. I’ve kept the same stance: sell rips, don’t buy dips-yet.

Support Line Holds, but for How Long?

The market’s calm masks deep apprehension. Traders are waiting to see the whites of the glut’s eyes. With arrivals now accelerating, we’re about two weeks from the seasonal turn. Expect volatility to wake up.

The $60 handle has been the line in the sand; there’s been no committed selling below $58.

Low Volatility Ahead of Key Reports

$OVX Oil volatility index Monthly bars.

$OVX Oil volatility index. Daily bars.

The week ahead sees the release of the OPEC Monthly report and the EIA STEO (Short term energy outlook). While these reports in themselves don’t offer anything market moving, they are the monthly assessment of the picture going forward.

Commitment Of Traders Report

No CFTC data (shutdown continues). ICE COT data for Brent offers little insight here. We’re working to integrate ICE EU positioning for a broader read once it’s stable.

What’s the Next Move?

As mentioned above, OVX is pretty low. I think the market has greatly under priced the glut of floating storage/ oil in transit. As more and more of these barrels land at their destinations, the market will price it fully in. Once this happens, there will be nothing more for the market to fear, but fear itself. I don’t think I would be alone in saying this market needs a good old traditional downside washout. Nothing solves low oil prices than lower oil prices. Once it gets cheap, if it gets A LOT cheaper – traders see more value than a fire sale.

This daily chart below is what the ultimate move will bring.

Oil Price News: $60 WTI Faces More Pain Ahead_8

WTI DEC Futures. Daily bars. YVWAP

In all reality, its too early for me to even get involved shorting a washout down. The wave is not yet breaking. There will be a few more attempts at a rally I think. One thing for sure is that no level of current upside macro drivers has been sustained, backed or held. Just let the price show you that reality. The current 4-week top has been just after the Kuwaiti minister’s comments- as covered in last week’s report ‘Hot Taco’. The US sanctions on Russian oil have been fully priced in and out as a headline.

See a more realistic daily bar for chart for next week’s trade here.

Oil Price News: $60 WTI Faces More Pain Ahead_9

WTI Daily bar. QVWAP.

So if we don’t get a macro headline shock, I think it’s going to be sideways to down by next Friday. Take into account the sell side pressure seen last week in equities. Again, I think it’s just a little too early for this to continue to breakdown in a massive way. BUT, we are now extremely close to a meltdown across both equities and oil. I am staying long biased Gold.

Oil Price News: $60 WTI Faces More Pain Ahead_10

WTI December futures. 30 mins bars. WVWAP.

The Bottom Line

The glut is no longer theoretical; it’s docking. Expect a short-term shakeout as supply lands and sentiment capitulates. Once the fear clears, value will re-enter the market.

For more insight about what is driving oil prices, check out our educational section.

source : fxempire

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Commodity

Gold and silver prices are sharply up in early U.S. trading Monday, with gold hitting a two-week high and silver a three-week peak. Notions the U.S. government may be close to reopening have boosted the precious metals markets, from the angle of the resumption of U.S. economic data flows will provide better odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December. December gold was last up $93.30 at $4,103.10. December silver prices were up $1.897 at $50.055.

The U.S. Senate on Sunday voted 60-40 on a procedural measure to advance a bill to end the federal government shutdown, with a group of moderate Democrats breaking with their party leaders to support the deal. The bill’s passage in the House of Representatives is not guaranteed due to opposition from Democratic leaders. The deal falls short of the goals of House and Senate Democratic leaders, who had demanded an extension of expiring Obamacare subsidies. Democrats secured a pledge from Republicans to vote on a bill to renew the Affordable Care Act tax credits by mid-December. The Senate adjourned until today and has not yet scheduled a vote for final passage. “It’s not yet clear how quickly the shutdown can end. The Senate will need the consent of all members to end the shutdown quickly. Any one senator can force days of procedural delays. Speaker Mike Johnson plans to give House lawmakers 36 hours’ notice to return to Washington,” reported Bloomberg. Said President Trump: “It looks like we’re getting closer to the shutdown ending,” he told reporters Sunday evening and as reported by Bloomberg.

The Sunday news the U.S. Senate is close to approving a bill to reopen the federal government rallied global stock markets, with U.S. stock indexes set to open solidly higher in New York today. U.S. Treasury yields have up-ticked modestly, as has the U.S. dollar index. Grain futures prices saw modest gains overnight, as the uncertainty from the dearth of USDA data would end when the USDA data starts flowing again. Crude oil prices did not show much reaction to the news.

Still, the U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, including the October consumer price index and jobs reports, which will prolong the debate about whether another rate cut is needed at the Fed's December meeting. “The absence of official reports will make it difficult for policymakers to assess the trajectory of inflation and the job market, and alternatives to government inflation figures are harder to come by and more limited in scope,” said a Bloomberg report. “The shutdown's impact on data collection and release will likely give (Fed) policymakers further reason to hold off on a rate cut in December, despite market odds still favoring a reduction, and investors will monitor appearances by Fed officials in the coming week for clues on the Fed's next move,” said Bloomberg. “Even if the government were to reopen, it’s unlikely the Bureau of Labor Statistics would be able to collect and process data for both the October and November CPI reports ahead of the December FOMC meeting. We think October’s figures would have greenlit a rate cut at the final meeting of the year,” said Bloomberg Economics.

The U.S. and China have suspended port fees on each other’s ships for one year and paused probes into maritime practices, Bloomberg reports. The Trump administration paused a probe into China’s shipbuilding industry, and Beijing shelved its own investigation and put off special port fees on U.S. vessels. The US will continue to negotiate with China about the issues raised in its investigation, according to the U.S. Trade Representative. “The stand-down in tensions over maritime issues tallies with a rapprochement in the broader confrontation between Washington and Beijing after a summit between the countries’ leaders. While shipping is not among the highest-profile issues, most global trade is carried by sea and the industry is a cornerstone of global commerce,” said Bloomberg.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Crude oil prices are slightly firmer and trading around $60.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.1%.

Strong price gains in gold, silver as U.S. gov’t may be close to reopening_1

Technically, December gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,200.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the October low of $3,901.30. First resistance is seen at $4,150.00 and then at $4,175.00. First support is seen at $4,050.00 and then at the overnight low of $4,004.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

Strong price gains in gold, silver as U.S. gov’t may be close to reopening_2

December silver futures bulls have regained the firm overall near-term technical advantage and their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $50.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $46.50. First resistance is seen at $50.50 and then at $51.00. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $48.235 and then at $48.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

Source: kitco

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Hungary’s exemption: A unique concession with geopolitical implications

In a move that sparked international attention, former U.S. President Donald Trump granted Hungary an exemption from sanctions targeting Russian oil imports. This concession, although publicly described by Prime Minister Viktor Orban as an “indefinite general exemption,” is confirmed by White House officials to be limited to one year. The divergence between the political messaging and official scope illustrates the complex negotiation dynamics at play.

Hungary, with no direct access to seaports due to its landlocked geography, relies heavily on pipeline connections for its energy imports. Orban emphasized that the nation has little alternative but to source oil and gas from Russia, a narrative that Trump endorsed publicly by stating, “They have no sea, no ports.” This framing supports a logic of necessity rather than choice, despite the U.S. Department of State suggesting alternatives, such as crude imports via a pipeline from Croatia linked to the Adriatic Sea.

The justification for the exemption therefore stems from Hungary’s constrained logistical position rather than a broader strategic alliance. This demonstrates a correlational relationship between Hungary's geographical limitations and the exemption, not a direct cause, since feasible alternatives though costlier do exist.

Energy trade-offs: U.S. investments in exchange for sanction relief

In return for this rare exemption, Hungary committed to a series of major U.S.-aligned energy projects. The most immediate is a $114 million deal with Westinghouse Electric Company for nuclear fuel supply. This decision diversifies Hungary’s energy sources and reduces its sole reliance on Russian nuclear inputs, aligning it more closely with Western technology standards.

Additionally, Hungary pledged to spend $600 million on American liquefied natural gas (LNG), which reflects a shift at least partially towards U.S.-supplied energy and complements Washington’s broader goal of expanding its LNG footprint in Europe.

Perhaps most significantly, Hungary signed a memorandum of understanding with the U.S. to potentially acquire up to ten Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) a next-generation nuclear technology with a potential value reaching $20 billion. If finalized, this deal could significantly reshape Hungary’s nuclear energy landscape, posing competition to the long-delayed Russian-backed expansion of the Paks Nuclear Power Plant.

These developments indicate a causal relationship between Hungary’s political concession energy alignment with the U.S. and its economic gains through exemptions and investment flow.

Strategic motivations and political messaging

Trump’s enthusiastic endorsement of Orban as a “great leader” and his open support for the Hungarian Prime Minister’s reelection bid highlights the political undercurrent of this energy pact. While framed as an energy policy agreement, the public rhetoric reveals a deeper ideological alignment and a broader attempt by Trump to signal preferential treatment for conservative-leaning regimes.

The Hungarian government leveraged this visit not only to safeguard its immediate energy interests but also to secure high-value commitments that might reduce its long-term dependency on Russia. However, the limited one-year timeframe of the exemption imposes a strategic urgency to accelerate these transitions.

Hungary’s success in obtaining an exemption from sanctions on Russian oil exemplifies how energy dependence can be reframed as diplomatic opportunity. While the landlocked geography of Hungary served as the surface-level justification, the underlying reality points to a series of well-calculated trade-offs. In exchange for short-term relief from geopolitical constraints, Hungary opened its energy sector to U.S. technology and capital, potentially redrawing its long-term energy partnerships. This case underscores the increasingly transactional nature of global energy diplomacy, where exemptions are less about necessity and more about strategic alignment and economic reciprocity.

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Devin

Economic

The Trump administration said the US Supreme Court should keep $4 billion in food aid on hold, vowing to keep waging a legal fight to reduce or delay assistance to millions of low-income families.

The filing at the high court comes even as the Senate moves forward with a bill that would re-open the federal government — and provide full Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits for its 42 million recipients.

The disputed money is on hold through Tuesday night under an order issued last week by Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson. That order paused a federal district judge's ruling that would require full funding for the so-called SNAP program, not just the partial funding the Department of Agriculture has promised.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Adam

Commodity

Gold prices climbed over 2% on Monday to hit a two-week high, as soft economic data out of the U.S. reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, lifting demand for the non-yielding asset.

Spot gold climbed 2% to $4,079.71 per ounce as of 9:45 a.m. ET (1445 GMT), after hitting its highest level since October 27 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 2% to $4,090.80 per ounce.

The dollar index (.DXY) eased, making gold more affordable for overseas buyers.

"Some weak data last week has the market tilting a little more dovish in their Fed expectations... we could very much still see a December rate cut," said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

Data last week showed the U.S. economy shed jobs in October, with losses in the government and retail sectors. Additionally, U.S. consumer sentiment slumped in early November as households worried about the economic fallout, data on Friday showed.

Markets now see a 67% chance of a rate cut in December, with odds climbing to about 80% by January, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. FEDWATCH

Non-yielding gold tends to do well in a low-interest rate environment and during times of economic uncertainty.

Gold could range between $4,200 to $4,300/oz by the end of the year, with $5,000/oz still a reasonable objective for the first quarter of next year, Grant added.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate on Sunday moved forward on a measure aimed at reopening the federal government and ending a now 40-day shutdown.

"A reopening would restore data flow and revive expectations for a December rate cut, but more importantly it shifts market focus back to the deteriorating U.S. fiscal outlook," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, in a note.

Elsewhere, spot silver rose 3.2% to $49.84 per ounce, reaching its highest since October 21, platinum rose 1.4% to $1,566.08 and palladium added 1.1% to $1,396.50.