Trump Says Israel And Iran Both Violated Ceasefire

Political

Summary:

U.S. President Donald Trump has said that both Israel and Iran have violated a ceasefire agreement he helped...

U.S. President Donald Trump has said that both Israel and Iran have violated a ceasefire agreement he helped broker.

Speaking to reporters before departing for a NATO summit in The Hague, Trump added that he was not pleased with either country, but particularly Israel. He said Israel had "unloaded" a strike shortly after agreeing to a halt in the hostilities.

Trump also suggested that Iran’s nuclear capabilities had been eradicated.

His comments come after the Israeli military warned that it has identified missiles launched from Iran towards Israel and was ready to retaliate, just hours after U.S. President Donald Trump declared a ceasefire to several days of deadly air attacks between the two regional rivals.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said he had told the country’s military to respond "forcefully" to the Iranian missiles, saying Tehran had carried out a "violation" of the agreed ceasefire. Katz said Israel’s response would include "high-intensity strikes against regime targets in the heart of Tehran."

Citing state TV, media outlets in Iran have reported that claims of an attack on Israel after the ceasefire took effect are "denied."

Earlier on Tuesday, Trump declared that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran was now "in effect," adding that neither side should violate it. The statement has lifted expectations that the 12-day bout of fighting between Israel and Iran has come to an end.

Trump’s statements had led to speculation that the ceasefire would take place in stages, with operations already underway being allowed to finish. An Iranian missile attack on Israel on Tuesday killed four people, according to Reuters, citing Israel’s ambulance service. Meanwhile, Tehran said an Israeli strike on northern Iran had killed nine people.

Israel, who was joined by the U.S. in its bid to erase what it has described as Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile ambitions, said it had agreed to a halt in the violence, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu noting that the operation had achieved its objectives. Iran has maintained that its nuclear plans are peaceful.

Still, questions surrounded the longevity of the ceasefire. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi also said Tehran had no intention of continuing its retaliatory strikes moving forward, but stood ready to respond to any further aggression from Israel -- a sentiment that Netanyahu reciprocated.

Oil prices slumped in the wake of the agreement, although some of the losses have been trimmed by renewed concerns over its staying power.

Crude had fallen sharply on Monday after Tehran responded to a weekend attack by the U.S. on Iranian nuclear sites with strikes on an American military base in Qatar. Traders largely interpreted the attack on the base in Doha, which caused no casualties, as symbolic and a precursor to cooling tensions.

Source: Investing

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Gerik

Economic

A Phased Approach to Stablecoin Integration

Speaking at a press conference on Tuesday, Bank of Korea (BOK) Senior Deputy Governor Ryoo Sang-dai emphasized that the issuance of won-denominated stablecoins should begin with heavily regulated commercial banks before potentially expanding to non-bank financial institutions. The central bank’s cautious stance reflects both regulatory prudence and the complexity of integrating stablecoins into South Korea’s financial system.

Stablecoins—digital assets pegged to stable fiat currencies—are gaining traction globally for their efficiency in cross-border payments and digital finance applications. However, Ryoo warned that their deployment must be closely managed to avoid undermining monetary control and financial market stability.

Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Considerations

Ryoo reiterated earlier concerns voiced by Governor Rhee Chang-yong that stablecoins could disrupt capital flows and settlement systems. He stressed the importance of a comprehensive regulatory safety net to shield the financial system from disorder and ensure user protection.

These remarks come as South Korea’s economic conditions remain fragile. The central bank is currently navigating an easing cycle, with its latest rate cut placing the policy rate near the midpoint of the neutral range. Ryoo also acknowledged that rising housing prices and household debt have become more prominent factors in the central bank’s policy calculus.

Political Support and Legislative Momentum

The push to integrate stablecoins aligns with President Lee Jae Myung’s campaign promise to modernize South Korea’s digital economy. The administration’s Democratic Party is currently working to establish a legal framework that would authorize the issuance of won-backed stablecoins by private companies. The effort is part of a broader strategy to maintain South Korea’s competitiveness in financial innovation.

In parallel with stablecoin discussions, the BOK is preparing for the second phase of its central bank digital currency (CBDC) pilot. The first pilot, conducted in collaboration with the Bank for International Settlements, will conclude next week. The upcoming phase will include deeper engagement with commercial banks and will likely be shaped by the policy priorities of the newly inaugurated government.

Ryoo also stated that the central bank is accelerating reforms in the foreign exchange market. These efforts include expanded trading hours and foreign investor access, reflecting South Korea’s broader move toward capital market liberalization and digital transformation.

The Bank of Korea’s preference for a cautious, bank-led introduction of stablecoins underscores its intent to balance innovation with financial prudence. As both private and public digital currency initiatives advance, the central bank’s emphasis on regulatory rigor and market safeguards reflects a strategic effort to modernize South Korea’s financial infrastructure without compromising systemic stability. The coming months will test the BOK’s ability to align digital currency reform with broader economic and political priorities.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

Japanese Market Rebounds on Geopolitical De-escalation

Japanese equities posted solid gains on Tuesday, snapping a three-day losing streak, after U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. The Topix Index climbed 0.7% to close at 2,781.35, while the Nikkei 225 surged 1.1% to 38,790.56 by the Tokyo market close. The ceasefire, following a tense week of missile strikes and military exchanges, helped restore investor confidence across Asia, leading to broader risk-on momentum.

Out of the 1,683 stocks on the Topix Index, 1,077 advanced, 530 declined, and 76 remained unchanged. Market breadth and trading volume improved compared to previous sessions, reflecting renewed optimism in the short term.

Oil Retreat and Tech-Led Gains Support Equities

As geopolitical concerns eased, oil prices fell sharply. This drop bolstered sentiment among import-heavy Asian economies like Japan, where lower energy costs support corporate margins and consumer spending. In response, energy-related stocks underperformed while electric appliance makers and financial institutions led the rally.

SoftBank Group jumped 5.6%, contributing the most to Topix’s gain, while Lasertec soared 13% and chip equipment maker Disco rose 4.8%. Meanwhile, the Tokyo Stock Exchange TOPIX Nonferrous Metals Index was the best-performing sector of the day.

Banks and Tech Surge While Real Estate and Auto Lag

Financial stocks rebounded on expectations that near-term volatility from Middle East tensions had subsided. Among major gainers were shares of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8306.T), which rose 1.68%. The banking sector benefited from easing bond market stress, while tech-linked shares rode the global upswing in semiconductor optimism.

In contrast, real estate stocks weakened, with Mitsubishi Estate and Sumitomo Realty dropping 3.2% and 3.0%, respectively. Nissan also fell 2.5%, pressured by investor concerns over restructuring and the fallout from a failed merger with Honda, as highlighted in recent shareholder meetings.

Analysts Caution Against Lingering Risk Factors

While the ceasefire helped reduce market anxiety, analysts remain cautious. Sohei Takeuchi of Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management noted that “geopolitical risks have receded for now,” but lingering concerns—such as Trump's unresolved tariff threats and the Federal Reserve’s policy ambiguity—could reintroduce volatility.

Kohei Onishi, senior investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, added that “selling pressure seems to be accumulating,” and warned that any shift toward risk aversion—particularly due to trade policy or macroeconomic uncertainty—could trigger sharp pullbacks.

Valuation and Regional Comparison

The Topix Index is currently trading at 14.7 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months. Despite the recent rebound, it remains marginally down 0.1% year-to-date, underperforming the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which is up 10% in the same period. This performance gap reflects both Japan-specific uncertainties and stronger recoveries elsewhere in the region.

Tuesday’s rebound in Japanese equities underscores how quickly markets can respond to shifts in geopolitical sentiment. However, with core risks still unresolved—ranging from U.S. trade policy to questions about central bank strategy—investors may remain on edge. For the Japanese market to build sustained momentum, further stability in global politics and monetary guidance will be essential.

Source: Bloomberg

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Michelle

Political

U.S. Treasury yields rose Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said that a ceasefire was in effect, soon after Iranian state-linked media announced Tehran had fired its "last round" of missiles at Israel.

"THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!" Trump said in a post on Truth Social around 1:00 a.m. ET.

At 5:17 a.m. ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was up 3 basis points to 4.354%, the 2-year yield up a basis point to 3.842%, and the 30-year up over 4 basis points to 4.908%.

One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.

The Israel Defense Forces confirmed that a ceasefire with Iran "came into effect this morning," adding that it and its branches nevertheless remain on a "high level of alert and readiness to deliver a powerful response to any violations of the ceasefire."

However, the Israel Defense Forces accused Iran of violating the ceasefire announced by Trump.

"In light of these severe violation of the ceasefire carried out by the Iranian regime, we will respond with force," the IDF's Chief of the General Staff Eyal Zamir said, according to a statement on the Israeli military's Telegram channel.

Earlier, the IDF had reported it was working to intercept missiles launched by Iran toward Israel, with sirens blaring in the north of the Jewish state. CNBC could not independently verify developments on the ground.

Investors will also be closely monitoring Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's semiannual testimony to Congress, which kicks off Tuesday morning. The central bank leader's testimony comes amid mounting pressure to begin cutting interest rates.

Source: CNBC

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Glendon

Cryptocurrency

Ethereum Price Surge: $112 Million Short Squeeze Sparks Market Optimism

Ethereum's latest price surge, driven by a $112 million short squeeze primarily on Binance, has traders eyeing a potential $2,800 breakout, generating increased market interest and activity as of June 2025.

Ethereum's price spike is pivotal, affecting market dynamics and trader sentiment, and could signify a broader market rally.

Market Dynamics

The recent Ethereum price surge was triggered by a significant $112 million short squeeze, predominantly on Binance. This event caused a ripple effect in derivatives markets, with increased volatility and trading volume as traders reacted.

Key Figures

Key figures include Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and Binance's Changpeng Zhao. The squeeze reflects no direct capital inflow but rather forced liquidations, notably influencing Ethereum's potential price targets. As Vitalik Buterin stated, "The upcoming 'Pectra' upgrade is expected to double Layer-2 blob space and raise validator staking limits."

Impact on the Market

Effects include a surge in ETH trading volume and increased market volatility, impacting Bitcoin and other DeFi assets. Traders remain optimistic about Ethereum's climb toward the $2,800 mark.

Historical Trends

Historical trends indicate that similar squeezes often result in short-term rallies followed by retracements. No recent regulatory remarks have surfaced, but the Ethereum community's focus remains on upcoming network upgrades like "Pectra."

Potential Outcomes

Potential outcomes include a shift in market expectations if momentum continues, influenced by technological advancements and further liquidations. The market's reaction will be closely watched, providing insights into Ethereum's future trajectory.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Michelle

Economic

Forex

Two weeks from President Donald Trump’s self-imposed deadline to reach deals with the US’ major trading partners, some of the most-watched talks aimed at clinching agreements to avoid higher tariffs are struggling to get over the finish line.

There’s a lot at stake: As of July 9, exporting nations without a bilateral accord in place will face Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs that are much higher than the current baseline 10% level applied to most countries.

Only the UK has secured something on paper, though that pact kept the 10% so-called reciprocal rate in place and left unresolved one of Britain’s pain points — 25% steel duties. On a separate track is China, which has a fragile truce with the US that extends into mid-August to give time for negotiations to play out.

Countries engaged in what Washington views as productive discussions may get their deadline extended. Court challenges to Trump’s legal authority for tariffs have provided an added element of uncertainty for companies that have spent the past 10 weeks either front-loading orders or hoping his threats of higher import taxes are just a negotiating tactic.

Here’s a rundown of where various talks stand:

European Union

The best-case scenario remains an EU-US agreement on principles that would allow the negotiations to continue beyond the early July deadline, Bloomberg has reported. Trump complained last week about the EU talks, threatening to give up and impose unilateral tariffs. The EU, which has been seeking a mutually beneficial deal, will assess any end-result and at that stage decide what level of asymmetry — if any — it’s willing to accept or whether it will push ahead with countermeasures to correct any imbalances.

India

Trade officials from India and the US are still keen to clinch an interim deal before the deadline, but the two sides appear to be digging in their heels on some key issues, particularly on agricultural goods. The US is seeking access to India’s markets for its genetically modified crops, a request India has denied, while New Delhi wants an exemption to the reciprocal tariffs as well as sectoral duties. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi missed an opportunity to advance the trade deal with Trump when the US leader left the Group of Seven meeting in Canada earlier than planned last week.

Vietnam

Communist Party chief To Lam is set to lead a delegation of officials and business executives to the US, aiming to meet with Trump and clinch additional deals with US firms to help finalise an agreement. The nation has offered to boost purchases of American products from Boeing airplanes to agricultural goods to get a deal. Negotiators are close to a framework agreement under which Vietnam is pushing for tariffs in the range of 20% to 25%, Bloomberg News previously reported.

Japan

US auto tariffs appear to be the key barrier to a deal between Washington and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s government, which is bracing for talks to drag on. Trump and Ishiba failed to reach an agreement at the Group of Seven leaders’ summit in Canada, despite holding three prior calls to discuss the tariffs. Opposition leader Yoshihiko Noda said after a meeting with Ishiba that the US is most concerned about the auto trade deficit and that no consensus has been reached. Both sides are now trying to schedule the next round of high-level trade talks. The US is set to raise tariffs on Japan to 24%, on top of existing duties of 25% on cars and 50% on steel and aluminum.

South Korea

South Korea has yet to make meaningful progress in trade negotiations. New Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo met with US officials in Washington on June 23, aiming to secure exemptions from tariffs, including those already imposed on cars and steel. This comes after a planned meeting between President Lee Jae Myung, who took office earlier this month, and Trump at the G-7 summit was called off at the last minute as Trump left the event early amid rising tensions in the Middle East. South Korea faces the risk of a 25% tariff, further squeezing its export-dependent industries already strained by the sectoral duties.

Thailand

Thailand, which has been threatened with a 36% tariff, began its delayed talks with the US last week. Permanent Secretary for Commerce Vuttikrai Leewiraphan said last Wednesday that Thailand’s proposals are good and stand a chance to bring down the tariff to the 10% baseline. The official proposal was submitted to Washington last week and detailed negotiations are underway, the finance minister said Tuesday. The US was Thailand’s largest export market last year, accounting for nearly one-fifth of the country’s total outbound shipments.

Malaysia

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim said that Malaysia’s negotiations with the US have been going well after officials met with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in Washington. Anwar said the imposition of the US tariffs was a “significant challenge” and added that about 60% of semiconductor products from Malaysia was exported to the US alone. Malaysia is seeking to reduce the US tariffs to below 10% for sectors critical to both economies. Both sides have agreed to finalise the talks before the tariff reprieve expires, Malaysia’s trade ministry said this week.

Switzerland

The European nation, also facing among the highest tariff rates of US allies, sketched a compromise around easing market access for some agricultural products, with Economy Minister Guy Parmelin saying he aimed to reach an agreement by early July. Since then, the US Treasury added Switzerland to its list of countries monitored for foreign exchange practices earlier this month. And Trump’s erratic trade policies contributed to the Swiss central bank cutting policy rates by 25 basis points last week after a surge of the franc.

Canada

Targeted with tariffs other than the reciprocal levies, the US’s northern neighbour is seeking to make a deal by mid-July, according to Prime Minister Mark Carney who met Trump on the sidelines of the G7 meeting. There are still differences between the two nations, according to the US president, who’s complained in the past about undocumented migration and fentanyl issues along the border. Canada is preparing to increase tariffs next month on steel and aluminum — currently at 25% — if talks stall.

Mexico

Mexico and the US were earlier this month nearing a deal that would remove Trump’s 50% tariffs on steel imports up to a certain cap, Bloomberg News reported. President Claudia Sheinbaum expected to meet with Trump soon after their planned encounter was canceled when he departed early from a G-7 summit in Canada. A formal start to the review of the USMCA — the free trade agreement between Canada, US and Mexico — is expected to begin later this year.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Olivia Brooks

Economic

Stocks

Recent tensions in the Middle East have begun to test the resilience of European stock markets, according to analysts at Barclays.

But in a note to clients, the brokerage said concerns over the implications of the conflict between Israel and Iran have added to "fatigue" rather than "stress" in the region’s equity markets, which have risen so far this year despite these potential headwinds.

"Investors remain watchful of the situation, although there are little signs of panic yet," the strategists led by Emmanuel Cau said in a note.

They added that "recent Middle East crises" could end up offering a "good buying opportunity," arguing that shocks from ructions in oil markets tend to be "short lived."

"In fact if the conflict results in bringing more stability and peace to the Middle East, it could be seen as bullish for risk assets over the medium term," the analysts said.

Still, they acknowledged that European equity-market price action could be "choppier" depending on the state of the fighting in the Middle East.

Against this backdrop, the Barclays strategists said they "remain skeptical of a structural re-rating" of an energy sector that has been largely tethered to movements in oil prices sparked recently by fighting between Israel and Iran.

On Tuesday, Israel accused Iran of violating a ceasefire agreement previously announced by U.S. President Donald Trump. Tehran has denied the claim.

Oil prices, which had fallen sharply amid hopes for easing tensions in the Middle East and fading worries over potential disruptions to oil supply flows through the region, trimmed some of these losses.

Elsewhere, the Barclays analysts flagged renewed trade-related risks facing European equities. An early July expiration of Trump’s delay to his punishing "reciprocal" tariffs is just weeks away, with questions swirling around whether this temporary relief will be extended.

This uncertainty, coupled with a stronger euro, have dented this year’s outperformance in European stocks, they said.