Trump: Fed Board Should Assume Control If Powell Won't Lower Interest Rates

Economic

Forex

Summary:

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday the Federal Reserve board should assume control if Fed Chair Jerome Powell continues to refuse to lower interest rates.

"Jerome 'Too Late' Powell, a stubborn MORON, must substantially lower interest rates, now. if he continues to refuse, the board should assume control, and do what everyone knows has to be done!" Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

The U.S. central bank held interest rates steady on Wednesday and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments after the decision undercut confidence that borrowing costs would begin to fall in September, stoking the ire of Trump, who has demanded immediate and steep rate relief.

The latest policy decision was made by a 9-2 vote, which passes for a split outcome at the consensus-driven central bank, with two Fed governors dissenting for the first time in more than 30 years.

The seven members of the Fed Board of Governors are nominated by the president and confirmed by the U.S. Senate.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Winkelmann

Cryptocurrency

Forex

Political

Bitcoin led the retreat, sinking to $114,322 as leveraged traders were forced out of positions. The move erased a key support level and sparked over $150 million in liquidations, creating a cascade that amplified losses across the sector.

The market downturn was accelerated by extreme leverage. Open interest in Bitcoin futures had swelled before the selloff, leaving traders exposed once the price cracked below $115K. The flush out of long positions not only closed a CME futures gap from July but also left BTC vulnerable to further losses if it fails to regain momentum above $116K.

Altcoins Hit by Insider Moves and Derivatives Stress

The broader market fared no better. Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) stumbled after insiders moved millions in tokens to exchanges, unnerving holders. Injective (INJ) reversed following excitement over its ETF filing, while Sui (SUI) tumbled below support after liquidation spikes. In total, many major tokens posted losses of 10% or more as speculative leverage was wiped out.

Glassnode Predicts Major Ethereum Upside Toward New All-Time High

Crypto Tied Closer to Wall Street Moves

The selloff underscored how closely crypto remains linked to traditional assets. With the Nasdaq falling nearly 1% on the same day, Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 surged to its highest in two months. For now, traders appear to be treating digital assets as risk-sensitive investments rather than safe havens against inflation.

What Traders Are Watching Next

Attention now shifts to Friday’s U.S. jobs data, which could determine whether the Federal Reserve leans toward easing in 2025. A soft labor market report might lift investor sentiment, but if Bitcoin fails to stabilize above current levels, analysts warn the correction could deepen toward $104K.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Michelle

Economic

Forex

In announcing President Donald Trump’s revised barrage of global tariffs last night, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer had a dig at the rules-based international trading system that Washington has let atrophy for much of the past decade.

“The President’s tariff program and the ensuing ‘Trump Round’ of trade negotiations have accomplished what the World Trade Organization and multilateral negotiations have not been able to achieve at scale,” Greer said in a statement late Thursday.

(The WTO didn’t immediately return an email request for comment sent to its headquarters in Switzerland, where people are celebrating a national holiday Friday and reading about how Trump just hit their exports to the US with a startlingly high 39% tariff — more than double the 15% imposed on many other developed nations that have trade surpluses with the US.)

Switzerland Slammed With 39% Tariff Rate in US Trade Blitz

Those wins, he continued, include “expansive new market access for US exporters, increased tariffs to defend critical American industries, and trillions of new manufacturing investments and purchases of goods that will create great American jobs and help reassert American leadership in key strategic sectors.”

Of course, all of that is just the hoped-for outcome for a White House that has about a year to produce the factory renaissance they’ve envisioned, before US voters start thinking about their financial well-being ahead of the 2026 mid-term elections.

According to Bloomberg Economics, the tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% would increase the average US duty to 15.2% from 2.3% in 2024, according to analysis by Maeva Cousin, chief trade economist at BE.

“For the rest of the world, this is a serious demand shock,” Raghuram Rajan, former India central bank governor and chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, who is now a professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, told Bloomberg TV on Friday.

The immediate burden of Trump’s rewiring falls on the administrative engine of the global trading system. US companies, their customs brokers and the broader logistics industry is struggling with the more complex and oft-changing reporting requirements to Customs and Border Protection, the US agency that collects the filings and the tariffs from importers of record.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Glendon

Cryptocurrency

In July, the largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC) , closed at $115,644, marking its first-ever six-figure monthly closure in its 16-year history. This event is significant, particularly when juxtaposed with Ethereum (ETH) , which, despite a substantial gain of 48.77% in July, began August with a slight 0.43% decrease. Analysts interpret this data as an indication of the market’s maturation, yet historical returns suggest a heightened risk of decline for both Bitcoin and Ethereum in August.

July’s Record-Breaking Bitcoin Closure

BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas described the $115,644 monthly closure not just as a number, but as an indicator of an increasingly deep buyer base. According to Lucas, the rapid recovery from a 4% decline following the transfer of 80,000 BTC on blockchain in July underscores a strong defense line largely driven by institutional demand within the cryptocurrency market.

Meanwhile, Nick Ruck, Director of LVRG Research, pointed out that the current 2% pullback has been influenced by factors such as the Federal Reserve’s ongoing monetary policy, potential tariffs, and a slowdown in spot crypto ETF flows. While short-term profit-taking is inevitable, Ruck emphasized that the fundamentals continue to support a long-term bullish outlook.

August’s Alarming Performance for Cryptocurrencies

Data from Coinglass reveals a recurring pattern of Bitcoin closing negative in August for three consecutive years, with declines of 8.6% in 2024, 11.29% in 2023, and 13.88% in 2022. The exception was 2021, with a notable 13.8% increase due to the “bull year” effect, suggesting ongoing volatility in the new month.

Similarly, August’s performance for Ethereum has been notably harsher. According to CoinGlass data again, ETH fell by 22.21% in August 2024, 11.3% in August 2023, and 7.33% in August 2022. However, a massive leap of 35.62% in August 2021, analogous to Bitcoin, confirmed it was a “bull year.”

As the cryptocurrency market stabilizes, the patterns seen for both Bitcoin and Ethereum point toward a month of significant caution, particularly in August. Market experts remain divided on the trajectory, while institutional investors’ moves become increasingly influential in dictating market trends. Overall, the cryptocurrency market’s maturity leads to further insights and strategies among traders, albeit with cautious optimism.

The significance of historical patterns cannot be overstated, especially as both digital currencies become ingrained elements of today’s economic landscape. For investors and enthusiasts alike, observing these historical patterns and market behaviors will be crucial in navigating the complex realm of cryptocurrencies.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Gerik

Economic

A Harsh Turn: From 31% Threat to 39% Reality

In a move that stunned Swiss officials and markets alike, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 39% tariff on Swiss goods through an executive order, surpassing the earlier threat of a 31% levy. The decision comes despite months of behind-the-scenes diplomacy and positive signals from U.S. officials. The Swiss franc slipped 0.2% against the U.S. dollar following the news, though it remains 8% higher than pre-April levels due to a surge in safe-haven demand.

Bern’s negotiators were reportedly blindsided by the sudden escalation. While Switzerland continues to seek a resolution, officials admit they may have had less to offer than other nations. Their proposals such as concessions on citrus and nuts or streamlined U.S. medical device approvals did not match the breadth of trade-offs accepted by the EU, Japan, and South Korea, each of which secured a lower 15% tariff under separate deals.

Sectoral Impacts: Watches, Chocolate, and Pharma in the Crosshairs

Swiss exports are now at risk across multiple high-value sectors. Chocolatiers like Lindt and watchmakers such as Rolex and Swatch face weakened price competitiveness in the U.S., the world’s largest luxury consumer market. More critically, pharmaceutical giants Novartis and Roche, which account for nearly half of Swiss exports to the U.S., may face a double hit from both tariffs and political pressure on drug pricing.

President Trump has simultaneously launched a campaign demanding that major drugmakers charge the U.S. no more than what they charge other countries, sending letters to 17 major pharmaceutical firms. This pressure, combined with the new tariff regime, could lead to reduced revenue, job losses, and long-term R&D risks for Switzerland’s life sciences sector.

Swiss industrial groups are alarmed. Swissmechanic called the 39% rate “dangerous,” warning it could cement structural disadvantages, while Swissmem CEO Stefan Brupbacher called the move “irrational and arbitrary,” with the potential to endanger tens of thousands of jobs in high-tech manufacturing.

Political Calculus and Economic Consequences

Switzerland’s vulnerability stems in part from its limited bargaining leverage. With agriculture politically sensitive and representing less than 1% of GDP, Swiss policymakers faced strong domestic resistance to dismantling high-tariff agricultural protections a key sticking point in negotiations with the U.S.

The result is a deeply punitive tariff that places Switzerland outside the circle of nations that reached mutual understanding with Washington. The decision also comes at a moment of broader economic fragility: Trump’s tariff campaign has distorted currency movements, contributing to the Swiss franc’s rise. In response, the Swiss National Bank was forced to cut rates back to zero after earlier signaling a halt to easing, attempting to mitigate export losses caused by the currency shock.

A Narrow Window for a Climbdown

The new tariffs are set to take effect on August 7, giving Switzerland just one week to restart talks or secure temporary relief. Bloomberg Economics analysts note this window may still offer room for sector-specific or reciprocal rate negotiations, not only for Switzerland but also for similarly affected economies like India and Taiwan.

Still, unless Bern can offer more substantive concessions quickly, Swiss exporters face the reality of operating under some of the world’s harshest U.S. tariff conditions. The long-term risks include reduced foreign investment, diminished export revenues, and potential job losses in sectors critical to the Swiss economy.

The move underscores a broader trend: the reconfiguration of global trade under Trump’s second-term tariff blitz, with manufacturing reshoring, geopolitical alignment, and trade imbalances now taking precedence over long-standing diplomatic ties even with countries like Switzerland.

Source: Reuters

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Winkelmann

Economic

Forex

EURUSD forecast

On the H4 chart of EURUSD, the market continues to develop a compact consolidation range around 1.1420. Today, 1 August 2025, this range is expected to expand down to 1.1387 and up to 1.1421. A correction to 1.1487 is also possible. Afterwards, a downward wave to 1.1185 is likely. This is a local target.Technically, the Elliott wave structure and the matrix of the downward wave with a pivot point at 1.1487 confirm this scenario. This level is seen as key in the EURUSD wave structure. The market is currently forming a downward wave to the lower boundary of the price Envelope at 1.1185. Once this level is reached, a rebound to the central line at 1.1487 is possible.

Technical indicators for today’s EURUSD forecast suggest a downward wave towards 1.1185.

USDJPY forecast

On the H4 chart of USDJPY, the market formed a consolidation range around 148.62 and broke out upwards. Today, 1 August 2025, a growth leg towards 151.45 is possible. Later, the price is expected to correct back to 148.62 (testing from above), followed by a rise to 153.40.Technically, the Elliott wave structure and the matrix of the growth wave with a rotation centre at 148.62 confirm this scenario. This level is considered key in this wave. The market completed a growth wave to the upper boundary of the Price Envelope at 151.45. A decline to the central line at 148.62 is not excluded, followed by a move up to the upper boundary at 153.40.

Technical indicators for today’s USDJPY forecast suggest a rise to 151.45.

GBPUSD forecast

On the H4 chart of GBPUSD, the market continues a downward wave towards 1.3155 as a local target. Today, 1 August 2025, this target level may be reached. Afterwards, a correction to 1.3370 (testing from below) is likely, followed by a decline to 1.2950.Technically, the Elliott wave structure and the matrix of the downward wave with a pivot point at 1.3370 confirm this scenario. This level remains key in the wave structure. The market is currently forming a downward wave to the lower boundary of the price Envelope at 1.3155. Later, a correction to the central line at 1.3370 is possible.

Technical indicators for today’s GBPUSD forecast suggest a decline towards 1.3152.

AUDUSD forecast

On the H4 chart of AUDUSD, the market continues to develop a consolidation range around 0.6444. Today, 1 August 2025, an upward breakout would open the way for a correction to 0.6555. If it breaks downwards, the downward wave may continue to 0.6408 as the first target.Technically, the Elliott wave structure and the matrix of the AUDUSD downward wave with a pivot point at 0.6515 confirm this scenario. This level is viewed as key in this wave structure. The market is currently forming a downward wave to the lower boundary of the price Envelope at 0.6408. Afterwards, a rise to the central line at 0.6515 is possible, followed by a continued decline to the lower boundary at 0.6400.

Technical indicators for today’s AUDUSD forecast suggest a decline to 0.6408.

USDCAD forecast

On the H4 chart of USDCAD, the market formed a consolidation range around 1.3747 and broke out upwards. Today, 1 August 2025, a continued upward wave towards 1.3920 is expected. Later, a pullback to 1.3750 (testing from above) is possible.Technically, the Elliott wave structure and the matrix of the growth wave with a pivot point at 1.3750 confirm this scenario. This level is considered key in the wave structure of USDCAD. The market formed a consolidation range around the central line of the price Envelope at 1.3750 and broke upwards. Today, the scenario of growth towards the upper boundary at 1.3920 remains relevant.

Technical indicators for today’s USDCAD forecast suggest a move up to 1.3920.

XAUUSD forecast

On the H4 chart of XAUUSD, the market is forming a consolidation range around 3,300. The range currently extends down to 3,268 and up to 3,314. Today, 1 August 2025, a decline to 3,247 is possible. This is a local target.Technically, the Elliott wave structure and the matrix of the downward wave with a pivot point at 3,345 confirm this scenario. This level is viewed as key in the wave structure of XAUUSD. The market is executing a downward wave to the lower boundary of the price Envelope at 3,247. Afterwards, a rise to the central line at 3,345 is possible, followed by a decline to the lower boundary at 3,150.

Technical indicators for today’s XAUUSD forecast point to a downward wave towards 3,247.

Brent forecast

On the H4 chart of Brent crude, the market is forming a consolidation range around 71.75. Today, 1 August 2025, a downward breakout may lead to a correction to 70.00. If the price breaks upwards, the wave may continue to 73.33 with the potential to extend the trend to 76.00 as a local target.Technically, the Elliott wave structure and the matrix of the growth wave with a pivot point at 71.80 confirm this scenario. This level remains key in the current wave of Brent. The market is forming a consolidation range around the central line of the price Envelope at 71.80. A short-term decline to 70.00 is not excluded, followed by a rise to the upper boundary at 73.33. Later, a pullback to the central line at 70.80 is possible.

Technical indicators for today’s Brent forecast suggest the continuation of the growth wave towards 73.33 and 76.00.

Source: RoboForex

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Gerik

Economic

PMI Nears Expansion Territory Amid Stabilizing Trends

The latest HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, climbed to 49.8 in July from 49.5 in June. While still technically contracting, this reading is the closest the bloc has come to returning to growth in three years. The output index remained in expansion territory at 50.6, though it eased slightly from June’s 50.8, indicating continued albeit slower growth in production.

This stabilization appears to reflect improved confidence, partially thanks to the newly established trade framework between the U.S. and the EU, which introduced a flat 15% tariff on most EU goods. While tariffs typically strain exporters, the agreement brings predictability, which may ease planning and supply chain concerns.

Country-Level Divergence Reflects Uneven Recovery

At the country level, manufacturing performance remained mixed. Germany's PMI rose to a 35-month high of 49.1 but continued to signal contraction. Ireland remained the bloc's top performer at 53.2, despite slipping from June, while the Netherlands and Spain each posted readings of 51.9, marking 14-month and seven-month highs, respectively. Greece maintained modest growth at 51.7. On the downside, France and Austria lagged with readings of 48.2.

This divergence suggests that while the broader euro zone is edging toward stabilization, national-level recoveries depend on domestic conditions and sector-specific dynamics particularly in export-driven markets affected by new tariffs.

Demand Weakness Lingers but Price Pressures Ease

Despite signs of stabilization, demand remains soft. New orders dipped in July, with export sales weakening after briefly stabilizing in June. However, price dynamics continue to support the ECB’s policy pause: input costs held steady after three months of declines, and output prices showed minimal change, reinforcing the view that inflationary pressures in manufacturing remain subdued.

This pricing environment is likely to provide cover for the European Central Bank to maintain its cautious monetary stance after it held rates steady last week, signaling that growth concerns may now be competing with inflation as the dominant policy focus.

Gradual Recovery with Cautious Optimism

Manufacturers remain cautiously optimistic. While confidence in future output moderated slightly from June’s 40-month high, it remains above the long-term average, indicating a steady, if tentative, recovery path. The combination of stable prices, soft demand, and reduced trade uncertainty may support a more balanced economic environment in the second half of 2025.

Still, the pace of recovery may hinge on whether domestic demand rebounds and whether external risks such as global tariff disputes and slowing U.S. consumption continue to weigh on European exports. The coming months will be crucial for determining if euro zone manufacturing can sustain this recovery and cross the growth threshold.