Trump, Disappointed By Call With Putin, to Speak With Zelenskiy on Friday

Wall Street rallied on Thursday to record closing highs, as chipmaker Nvidia rose closer to a US$4 trillion (RM16.9 trillion) valuation and a surprisingly strong US jobs report cheered investors, who shrugged off dimming chances for an interest rate cut this month.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs, notching a third week of gains. The Dow closed up 0.77%, only 0.41% away from its own record.

Chipmaker Nvidia rose 1.3%, putting its market capitalisation at US$3.89 trillion. The company is close to overtaking Apple's all-time record and becoming the world's most valuable company in history.

Trading volume was light in a shorter session on the eve of Friday's US Independence Day holiday.

"We are seeing a real bout of irrational exuberance; the stock market is very biased towards optimism," said Kristina Hooper, the chief market strategist of Man Group in New York.

"But there's some basis for it. I think there is some level of relief because the jobs report was not as weak as it could have been."

The rally has been fueled by retail investors, who are largely ignoring the inflationary pressure on the horizon, uncertainty around tariffs and "are focused on the tangible, which is today's jobs report", she said.

The S&P 500 gained 51.94 points, or 0.83%, to 6,279.36, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 207.97 points, or 1.02%, to 20,601.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 344.11 points, or 0.77%, to 44,828.53.

Data showed non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 jobs last month, 33% more than the 110,000 jobs forecasted by economists polled by Reuters. Unemployment fell to 4.1% last month, a better result than the 4.3% expected.

Traders quickly priced out chances of an interest-rate cut in July, with the odds of a 25-basis-point reduction in September at 68%, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool, down from 74% a week ago.

After markets closed, Republicans in the US House of Representatives approved US President Donald Trump's massive tax-cut and spending bill, an expected outcome.

The legislation will add US$3.4 trillion to the nation's US$36.2 trillion debt, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, and will also push millions of Americans off health insurance.

Large tax cuts and increased government spending can boost demand in the economy. This can add inflationary pressure, especially when the economy shows signs of strength, such as the latest jobs report.

"Some data points, like the jobs report, are positive and charming. But if we just take a step back, the picture is not that great," said Alex Morris, the chief executive officer of F/m Investments, which manages US$18 billion in Washington, DC.

For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.72%, the Nasdaq rose 1.62%, and the Dow climbed 2.3%. The Russell 2000 Small Cap index rose 3.41%.

"It's kind of perplexing," Morris said. "This feels like that last bull rush before all of the data really comes together."

Tripadvisor climbed 16.7% after The Wall Street Journal reported activist investor Starboard Value had built a stake of more than 9% in the online travel company.

Datadog jumped 14.9% after the cloud security firm was set to replace Juniper Networks on the S&P 500.

Markets closed at 1pm ET. Trading volume on US exchanges was 10.85 billion shares, much lighter than the 17.82 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

Source: Theedgemarkets

Oil prices fell slightly in Asian trade on Friday with focus squarely on an upcoming OPEC+ meeting for more cues on production, while further losses in crude were stemmed by more U.S. sanctions on Iran.

Brent oil futures for September fell 0.2% to $68.66 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.2% to $65.51 a barrel by 21:51 ET (01:51 GMT).

Both contracts were up between 1% to 2% this week, but were nursing double-digit losses from the prior week.

Oil was pressured by some overnight strength in the dollar, following stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data that spurred bets that interest rates will not fall in the near-term.

But markets remained on edge over the U.S. economy after a controversial tax and spending bill was approved by the House of Representatives. U.S. trade tariffs are also in focus before a July 9 deadline for Washington to impose steep duties on major U.S. trading partners.

OPEC+ production hike in focus

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) is set to meet over the weekend. Recent reports showed the cartel is gearing up to once again hike production by 411,000 barrels a day in August, following similar hikes in the past three months.

The production hikes come as the OPEC+ scales back two years of sharp production cuts, in part to offset the economic impact of persistently low oil prices.

The OPEC+, led by top exporter Saudi Arabia, is also seeking to punish overproduction within its ranks.

The OPEC+ hikes show the cartel falling in line with demands from U.S. President Donald Trump to increase production and stem any rises in oil prices. While oil had risen close to 2025 highs in June, amid the Israel-Iran war, a deescalation in military action saw crude crash back below $70 a barrel.

US imposes more sanctions on Iranian oil

The U.S. on Thursday imposed sanctions targeting a network of companies and ships that smuggles Iranian oil disguised as Iraqi oil.

The new sanctions targeted a network of companies run by Iraqi-British national Salim Ahmed Said, the U.S. Treasury Department said, and are aimed at limiting Iran’s oil revenues and pressure the country into accepting more limits on its nuclear activities.

Iran had earlier this week ceased cooperation with the United Nations nuclear watchdog, after the U.S. attacked three of the country’s main uranium enrichment facilities in late-June.

Still, Tehran and Washington are set to hold more nuclear talks in Oslo next week, Axios reported.

Source: Investing

Most Asian equity markets struggled on Friday, despite record highs for Wall Street overnight, as U.S. President Donald Trump's deadline for trade deals loomed next week.

The dollar retraced some of Thursday's gains with U.S. markets already shut for the week, as traders considered the impact of the sweeping spending bill Trump is about to sign into law.

Japan's Nikkei rose 0.3% as of 0152 GMT after flipping between gains and losses in early trading.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng slumped 1.3%, while mainland Chinese blue chips edged slightly lower.

Taiwan's equity benchmark shed early gains to decline 0.2%. South Korea's KOSPI sank more than 1%.

U.S. S&P 500 futures edged down 0.2%, following a 0.8% overnight advance for the cash index to a fresh all-time closing peak. Wall Street is closed Friday for Independence Day.

Investors cheered a surprisingly robust jobs report on Thursday in sending all three of the main U.S. equity indexes climbing in a shortened session.

Following the close, the House narrowly approved Trump's signature, 869-page bill, which would add $3.4 trillion to the nation's $36.2 trillion debt, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

Trump also said he would start sending out letters to trade partners with their tariff rates, as deals remained elusive ahead of the July 9 deadline.

The U.S. President said he expected "a couple" more agreements after announcing a deal with Vietnam on Wednesday to add to framework agreements with China and Britain as the only successes so far.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this week that a deal with India is close. However agreements with Japan and South Korea, once touted by the White House as likely to be among the earliest to be announced, appear to have broken down.

"It is now just waiting for July 9," said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, with the market's lack of optimism for deals responsible for some of the equity weakness around the region, particularly Japan and South Korea.

At the same time, Thursday's jobs data shows "the U.S. economy is holding together better than most people expected, which suggests to me that markets can easily continue to do better" from here, Sycamore said.

The jobs data saw traders take any expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this month off the table.

The U.S. dollar rallied, taking it up as much as 0.7% versus a basket of major peers on Thursday before it pared its advance to end the session with a 0.4% rise.

Source: Yahoo Finance

US President Donald Trump said Washington will start sending letters to countries on Friday, specifying what tariff rates they will face on imports to the United States, a clear shift from earlier pledges to strike scores of individual deals.

Acknowledging the complexity of negotiating with over 170 nations, Trump told reporters before departing for Iowa on Thursday that the letters will be sent to 10 countries at a time, laying out tariff rates such as 20% to 30%.

"We have more than 170 countries, and how many deals can you make?" Trump said. "They're very much more complicated."

The Republican president said he expected "a couple" more detailed agreements with other countries, after Wednesday's announcement of a trade deal with Vietnam.

However, he said he preferred to notify most other countries of a specific tariff rate, skipping detailed negotiations.

Trump's comments underscored the challenges of completing trade agreements on everything from tariffs to non-tariff barriers, such as bans on agricultural imports.

Top Trump aides said in April that they would work on 90 deals in 90 days, an ambitious goal that was met with skepticism from trade experts familiar with arduous and time-consuming trade deals of the past.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg Television that about 100 countries are likely to see a reciprocal tariff rate of 10%, and predicted a "flurry" of trade deals announced before a July 9 deadline when tariffs could rise sharply.

If 10% tariffs were given to 100 countries, that would be fewer than originally envisioned by the Trump administration.

Its original reciprocal tariff list showed 123 jurisdictions that would be given a 10% tariff rate — mostly small countries, along with some territories such as Australia's uninhabited Heard and McDonald Islands.

Trump sent markets into a tailspin on April 2 with sweeping reciprocal tariff rates ranging from 10% to 50%, although he temporarily reduced the tariff rate for most countries to 10% to allow time for negotiations through July 9.

Many countries with an initial 10% duty rate have not had any negotiations with the Trump administration, with the exception of Britain, which reached a deal in May to keep a 10% rate and won preferential treatment for some sectors, including autos and aircraft engines.

Major trading partners now involved in negotiations were hit with much higher tariff rates, including 20% for the European Union, 26% for India, and 24% for Japan. Other countries that have not engaged in trade talks with the Trump administration face even higher reciprocal tariffs, including 50% for the tiny mountain kingdom of Lesotho, 47% for Madagascar, and 36% for Thailand.

Trump on Wednesday announced an agreement with Vietnam that he said cuts US tariffs on many Vietnamese goods to 20%, from his previously threatened 46%. Many US products would be allowed to enter Vietnam duty free.

Source: Theedgemarkets

The Australian and New Zealand dollars were set on Friday to rack up a second straight week of gains, after a volatile overnight session as a beat in U.S. jobs data lengthened the odds for earlier rate cuts there.

Next week's outlook is less certain, with a U.S. tariff deadline approaching on July 9. President Donald Trump said overnight that letters Washington will start sending on Friday would lay out the tariff rates countries face on U.S. imports.

Joseph Capurso, head of international economics at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, expects the next big move in Australia to be down, rather than up.

"If President Trump unilaterally reapplies high tariffs on July 9 or August 12 on the expiry of his two tariff truces, currency markets could become very volatile in a repeat of early April," Capurso said.

"AUD/USD and NZD/USD could quickly drop by 2, 3 or even 4 U.S. cents in the middle of July and August."

The Aussiewas flat on Friday at $0.6572, off an intraday low of $0.6537 overnight before recovering some losses to finish down just 0.2%. For the week, it is up 0.6%.

Near-term resistance is at an eight-month peak of $0.6544, with the next bull target up at $0.6687.

The kiwi dollarwas little changed at $0.6071, having hit an intraday low of $0.6031 overnight before trimming losses to finish 0.3% lower. For the week, it is up 0.3%.

More support lies at $0.6040, with resistance at the nine-month peak of $0.6120.

The closely watched U.S. jobs report surprised on the upside as markets gave up on the chance of a July rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Even a move in September is in doubt, with futures pricing in a 74% probability of one.

Despite the hawkish turn in Fed pricing, markets are still convinced the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut rates on Tuesday for a third time this year to 3.6%, which is about 95% priced in.

A Reuters poll showed that 31 of 37 economists predicted a cut next week, while the rest, including Citibank and BlackRock, saw no change.

Household spending in May rose 0.9% for its fastest pace in seven months, data showed on Friday, although that followed three months of meagre growth.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will meet on Wednesday and is most likely to keep the cash rate steady at 3.25%. Swaps imply a probability of 83% for no move.

A Reuters poll showed 19 of 27 economists expected no change in policy, while eight predicted a 25 bp cut.

Source: TradingView

Gold remained on track for a weekly gain despite falling on Thursday, as investors weighed lower odds for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts as well as lingering concerns about the outlook for global trade.

Bullion traded near $3,330 an ounce to be up around 1.7% this week. It ended the previous session 0.9% lower when US payroll figures surprised on the upside, while the unemployment rate came in lower than expectations. The dollar rose along with Treasury yields — pressuring gold — as traders exited already slim bets on a rate reduction at the Fed’s July meeting. Higher rates typically weigh on gold, which doesn’t bear interest.

Fed policymakers have held the central bank’s key rate steady so far this year, citing the potential for President Donald Trump’s tariff policies to stoke inflationary pressures. Officials have also pointed to the overall stable labor market to support their view that they need not rush to lower rates.

Investors were also monitoring the latest on global trade, after Trump said that his administration may begin sending out letters to trading partners as soon as Friday to set unilateral tariff rates ahead of a July 9 deadline for negotiations.

Gold is up by more than a quarter this year, trading about $170 short of a record set in April. The precious metal has been bolstered by demand for havens as investors grapple with heightened geopolitical and trade tensions, as well as ongoing strong demand from global central banks.

Spot gold was up 0.1% to $3,328.68 an ounce as of 8:09 a.m. in Singapore. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped 0.1%, after gaining 0.2% in the previous session. Silver dipped, palladium was steady, while platinum edged up.

Elsewhere, investors were weighing the potential economic impact of Trump’s multitrillion fiscal package, after the House passed the bill on Thursday. The sweeping legislation is expected to widen the US deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. That could bolster demand for havens such as gold.

Source: Bloomberg Europe