Trump Boosts Argentina's Milei With US$20 Bil Lifeline As US Buys Pesos

Source: Bloomberg

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[Today's Focus]

The US government shutdown, which began at midnight on October 6, shows no sign of ending soon — and many now expect it could at least become the second-longest in US history.

Despite six Democratic attempts to pass a funding bill, the Senate has repeatedly rejected proposals to reopen the government.

Length of the different US Government shutdowns – Source: Statista – Reposting of the graph published in our October 2 Market Wrap

The current shutdown has been ongoing for nine days already – The length of it already surpasses 14 of the previous ones, with some lasting only one day, like during the 1980s.There are, however, faint hopes for a resolution, with growing pressure from agencies, unions, and private-sector partners potentially pushing lawmakers to reach a deal in the coming weeks.Because of the ongoing shutdown, even Marco Rubio, one of the US top diplomats, will not be able to attend the Paris meeting about the future for Gaza, as peace in the Middle East comes closer.

For now, the impact on economic visibility is clear. With most “non-essential” government functions halted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — responsible for the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Weekly Jobless Claims — is temporarily closed.This leaves traders and analysts without two of the most critical labor market indicators.So, where can investors look to fill the data gap and gauge the health of US employment while the shutdown persists? Let’s discover this just below.

Private data makes a comeback

Private surveys provide valuable insight into the US labor market.While they typically move markets less than official BLS data, they’re now attracting increased attention amid the government shutdown.

The most widely followed — and most market-moving — is the ADP Private Employment Report, which recently showed a decline of 32,000 jobs. It is getting more attention, particularly as it provides a seemingly more precise picture (when looking at the huge revisions from BLS data in 2025).

ADP Private Employment in the past 12 months, starting to plateau – Source: ADP Employment

Other indicators help to fill the gap: the Challenger Job-Cut Report offers a monthly look at layoffs, while the Gallup Job Creation Index (released quarterly, so not very timely) gives a sentiment-based measure of hiring conditions.The ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs also include employment sub-indexes, offering additional clues about job trends across sectors.Even private institutions have stepped up their data releases — for instance, a Bank of America survey showed slower job growth and rising claims despite steady wage gains, and Carlyle Group estimated that the US added just 17,000 jobs in September.

While the ADP report remains the benchmark among these alternatives, this period could see new private datasets gain prominence — especially those that prove more consistent or predictive of official labor trends once BLS operations resume.

Prediction-Markets Shutdown length expectations, October 9, 2025 – Source: Kalshi

Public data also isn’t done yet

Public data isn’t totally absent when assessing the US labor market — a few key Federal Reserve surveys continue operating even during the shutdown.These surveys offer timely snapshots of employment trends across various districts, providing indirect but valuable clues about hiring and job stability.The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey (the most market-moving) and the Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey ask firms whether employment and work hours are rising or falling, giving an early read on hiring momentum in the Eastern US.

The Richmond Fed runs manufacturing and service sector surveys, where companies report payroll changes and labor availability.Further west, the Kansas City Fed’s Tenth District surveys and the Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing and Service Outlooks measure shifts in employment and wages through monthly questionnaires sent to local businesses.Though these regional reports vary in scope, their employment sub-indices tend to move consistently with national labor data, making them valid proxies until the Bureau of Labor Statistics resumes regular publication.

Individual Fed regional presidents tend to mention these studies when they appear, which helps them assess their own decision-making during FOMC meetings.

Too Long, Didn’t read – What data releases should I focus on as a trader

Private Surveys:

Public Surveys, mostly from the Federal Reserve

Markets don’t seem to care too much about the shutdown, at least for now

US Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart, October 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The US Dollar is up 2% since October 1st, not showing the slightest care.

Even legendary traders and Hedge Fund managers like Citadel’s Ken Griffin repeat that the shutdown will have no material impact for Markets.

Still, Markets start to react when nobody seems to care anymore, so keep your eyes open.

Source: MarketPulse by OANDA Group

The New Zealand Dollar has been under heavy pressure in recent weeks, weighed down by a string of disappointing economic data, including a sharp GDP contraction that surprised markets and pushed the RBNZ toward a more dovish stance.

But markets often move in unexpected ways.

Despite the policy decision being split between a 25 bps and 50 bps cut, and the RBNZ ultimately choosing the larger move, NZD/USD didn’t tumble as far as expected.In fact, buyers stepped in, bringing the pair back to nearly unchanged levels by the close of yesterday’s session.

NZD/USD Intraday 15m Chart – October 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView

So, what explains this counterintuitive reaction?

Markets are forward-looking — a larger cut today reduces the need for aggressive easing later, prompting traders to reassess what might have been peak dovishness.In other words, Participants assess that the RBNZ will have less to do from here.

A look at the following Rate pricing for the RBNZ

Pre-RBNZ Rate Cut pricing – October 7, 2025 – Source: LSEG

A 25 bps cut would have led to a longer rate cut path: A 2% Neutral Rate would have been reached in April 2026, taking the New Zealand economy longer to recover.

The red circles follow a 25 bps, slower rate cut path.

Post-50 bps cut RBNZ Pricing – October 9, 2025 – Source: LSEG

The new pricing shows that the cut cycle is priced to end in February 2026 – Hence, faster recovery for the New Zealand economy.Sellers now aim to test yesterday’s lows to see if the yearly bottom has been found after failing yesterday.We’ll now look at NZD/USD key levels to see where is the current bottom and if a new one could then emerge.

NZD/USD 2H Chart and levels

NZD/USD 2H Chart, October 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Amid a US Dollar rebound, sellers have found a place to sell the pair after re-testing the 4H 50-period Moving Average.Will the pair reach new lows, or has a bottom been found after the Jumbo rate cut?

This marks key breakout points to follow for the pair:

A break above the daily highs (0.58070) should confirm the intermediate bottom.A downside break would imply further weakness in the NZD is expected.

Levels to keep on your NZD/USD charts:

Support Levels:

Resistance Levels:

Source: MarketPulse by OANDA Group

U.S. President Donald Trump and Finnish President Alexander Stubb announced a joint deal to build icebreaker ships during a White House meeting for talks related to trade and security on Oct. 9.“We have a big order coming up ... and we negotiated a pretty tough price,” Trump said during the Oval Office gathering.“We’re buying the finest icebreakers in the world.”Icebreaking ships are specially designed and constructed with reinforced hulls, oversized engines to drive through obstructions, and custom shapes to crush ice and create pathways.

The deal includes 11 ships valued at approximately $6.1 billion, four to be built in Finland and seven in the United States, according to the president.Available details are limited, and more information is coming soon, a White House spokesperson told The Epoch Times.Known as the “Land of a Thousand Lakes” because of its vast watery landscape, the Nordic nation’s ports freeze every winter, so Finland developed superior icebreaking technology over the past 100 years out of necessity.

Approximately 60 percent of all icebreaking ships are built in Finland, and the nation’s engineers are responsible for designing 80 percent of the world’s fleet, according to Stubb.Leaders from the country helped found the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort—also known as the ICE Pact—a joint agreement from July 2024 between Finland, the United States, and Canada to further the advancement of Arctic shipbuilding.“You’re going to be teaching us about the icebreaker business,” Trump told the Finnish leader.

The United States has one ship controlled by the Coast Guard with icebreaking capabilities, while Russia has approximately 40, Trump noted.

Finland can help close the gap, according to Stubb.

“You need to start ramping it up, and this is an indication that we’re going to do it, and we’re going to do it together,” he said.“I think we’re the country that can provide them at half the price and half the time.”Elected in 2024, the 57-year-old Finnish president—who previously served as prime minister, foreign minister, and as a member of the European Parliament—said the partnership will help the two countries more closely align their foreign policy strategies.

“It’s a huge strategic decision by the president as well, because we all know that the Arctic is important strategically ... and in terms of the economy as well,” Stubb said.“I know I come from a small country, but for us to be able to work together with you is extremely important from a strategic perspective, as well.”Trump first met Stubb in France last year. The two played golf—prompting Trump to praise the Finn, who played college golf, for his skill on the course—after an impromptu March get-together in Florida at the president’s Mar-a-Lago home.

As the open press event was winding down, Trump told reporters that discussions with Finland’s delegation would continue in the Cabinet Room.Stubb mentioned potential topics of interest, including quantum computing and the development of 6G networks for communication.Also present for the visit were Finland’s prime minister, Petteri Orpo, and its ambassador to the U.S., Leena-Kaisa Mikkola.The prime minister applauded the agreement as a symbol of optimism for the Finnish people.

“This deal is very important to Finland and our economy because our economy is suffering a lot because of the Russian aggression in Ukraine,” Orpo said.“And this deal ... means investments, it means jobs, and jobs mean hope. That’s why this is so important.”

Source: Zero Hedge

In Australia, the only update of note this week was October’s Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment Survey, which ultimately disappointed with a –3.5% decline to 92.1. Combined with last month’s fall, all gains over May to August have been erased and sentiment is now back into outright pessimistic territory. The most recent fall appears to be largely a consequence of renewed fears over the cost-of-living following the latest stronger-than-expected inflation update.

This looks to have fed through to households’ opinions on family finances. Both sub-indexes tracking current views and expectations deteriorating sharply back below long-run averages (–4.8% and –9.9% respectively). This coincided with the lift in expectations around mortgage interest rates. That said, while some consumers appeared to be ‘bracing for the worst’ as far as last week’s RBA’s decision was concerned, the Board’s non-committal and cautious language accompanying the decision went some way towards calming these fears. On the economy, consumers have become more downbeat on the year-ahead outlook (–2.5%) but remain fairly agnostic on the medium-to-longer term outlook (+1.4%).

Against this backdrop, consumers’ spending intentions remain a clear laggard in the survey detail. At 97.2, the ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index is some 21% below long-run average levels. This strikes a similar tone to official household spending data which is pointing to a more modest recovery following a solid showing in Q2 (which was buoyed by temporary factors including insurance payouts, abnormal seasonality, and EOFY sales). Going forward while a recovery is clearly underway, households’ ‘value-conscious’ attitude suggests that underlying momentum is still subdued. As a result, spending growth may remain patchy over the coming months and quarters.

This implies that the projected recovery in household spending is unlikely to be a decisive factor in the RBA’s near-term policy decision. Instead, as Chief Economist Luci Ellis highlights in this week’s essay, attention will be focused on upcoming labour market and inflation data ahead of the RBA’s November decision – the RBA has almost certainly not yet decided whether or not to cut the cash rate in November with these updates set to be the big deciding factor.

Offshore, the US government failed to reach an agreement on spending extending the shutdown and continuing to disrupt the release of official data. Consequently, attention was focused on the minutes of the FOMC’s September meeting.

The minutes struck a balanced tone with members highlighting both upside risks to inflation and growing downside risks to employment. The decision to cut rates by 25bps was motivated by weaker labour market conditions which also led them to “no longer characterize labor market conditions as solid”. Though downside risks were emphasised, the FOMC also affirmed they did not see a sharp deterioration in labour market conditions and that softer job gains were a function of both labour demand and supply, the latter reflecting the impact of fewer migrants. The view on inflation was more encouraging with the minutes noting that “excluding the effects of this year’s tariff increases, inflation would be close to target” and that they “perceived less upside risk to their outlooks for inflation than earlier in the year”. While concerns around inflation had subsided, the committee continues to expect an increase in inflation in the near-term and are attuned to how this is being transmitted into inflation expectations. We anticipate the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate once more this year, consistent with their view that ” it likely would be appropriate to ease policy further over the remainder of this year”.

Closer to home, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its OCR by 50bps, a move that was out of consensus with the market but anticipated by our New Zealand colleagues. The Committee’s concern around excess capacity motivated the larger move though a 25bp cut was also considered. Forward guidance provided in the Media Release suggests further reductions are likely, we expect a 25bp cut in November.

Source: ACTIONFOREX