Tokyo CPI Inflation Remains Steady In Nov, Slightly Ahead Of Forecasts

Economic

Summary:

Tokyo consumer price index inflation remained unexpectedly steady in November amid high food prices, with underlying inflation also remaining well ahead of the Bank of Japan’s annual...

Tokyo consumer price index inflation remained unexpectedly steady in November amid high food prices, with underlying inflation also remaining well ahead of the Bank of Japan's annual target.

Tokyo core CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, grew 2.8% year-on-year in November, government data showed on Friday. The print was slightly above expectations of 2.7% and remained steady from the prior month's reading.

A core CPI reading that excludes both fresh food and energy prices remained steady at 2.8% in November, above the BOJ's 2% annual target. The print is closely watched as a gauge of underlying inflation by the central bank.

Headline Tokyo CPI inflation read flat at 2.7%.

Friday's print showed Japanese food price inflation remained mostly upbeat, with rice prices continuing to increase at an outsized pace. Dairy prices also increased sharply in the month.

The country is grappling with a prolonged rice shortage due to a mix of poor harvests, an aging farming population, and some policies against importing the grain, which pushed up food prices. Higher food prices were in turn a major driver of CPI inflation this year.

Tokyo CPI inflation usually acts as a bellwether for national inflation, with November's print indicating that Japanese inflation is likely to remain sticky. It also comes after a series of firm inflation prints through the second half of 2025.

Sticky inflation gives the BOJ more impetus to hike interest rates, with the central bank having recently signaled it will consider raising rates in its December meeting.

But rate hikes by the BOJ put it at odds with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government, which has broadly called for looser monetary conditions and more fiscal spending to support economic growth.

Source: Investing

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Commodity

Gold has had a banner year in 2025, gaining more than 58% and outperforming the market by leaps and bounds. For context, the S&P 500 is up about 14%, while Bitcoin has lost around 6% (with Bitcoin-leveraged stocks performing far worse than the crypto itself).

Among precious metals, silver has outshone gold with a 78% year-to-date (YTD) gain. Still, gold appears well-positioned to sustain its rally into 2026—fueled in part by President Donald Trump’s return to power and the market’s reaction to his policies.

Volatility Is Once Again on the Rise

Precious metals enjoy strong runs during stretches of heightened volatility. That’s because volatility causes investors to engage in flights to safety, reallocating capital from riskier asset classes like stocks to safe-haven assets like gold.

And volatility has been a hallmark of Trump’s second administration. From Inauguration Day to March 10, volatility—as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s CBOE Volatility Index CBOE: VIX—increased by 85% as rumors of the president’s tariff plans began to emerge.

The VIX then pulled back 20% by the end of March, before skyrocketing to a five-year high during the market’s so-called tariff tantrum in April, when the index jumped 135% the first week of April.

Why Gold Loves Trump as Much as Trump Loves Gold_1

The index settled down by 70% by the end of September after the president walked back tariffs against numerous countries. But since then, it has increased 35%, raising concerns about another bout of heightened volatility through the end of the year.

The SCOTUS Tariff Decision Looms

A critical legal development could further impact gold’s trajectory: the U.S. Supreme Court is currently reviewing whether Trump has the authority to impose tariffs without Congressional approval.

If the Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump, tariffs—with or without congressional approval—remain, which would have the potential to further erode the purchasing power of the US dollar and drive gold prices higher as a result.

But if the court rules against Trump’s trade policies and the administration is forced to reverse its tariffs, that too could be a boon for gold. On Sunday, Fortune reported: “President Donald Trump’s administration is working behind the scenes on fallback options if the Supreme Court strikes down one of his major tariff authorities.” Any such moves are likely to sustain investor anxiety and, in turn, demand for safe-haven assets.

Foreign Policy and Geopolitical Instability Drive Gold Prices

Despite campaign pledges to reduce global conflict, Trump’s second term has not delivered meaningful geopolitical de-escalation. The Russia-Ukraine war, now entering its fourth year, continues with no end in sight.

Additionally, despite Trump brokering a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in early October, warfare in that corner of the world hasn’t ceased, with near-daily strikes continuing in the Gaza Strip. Since the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, 2023, the price of gold has risen more than 125%.

More recently, the Trump administration has ramped up military activity in the Caribbean, signaling potential intervention in Venezuela. The USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier is already positioned near the South American nation, and approximately 15,000 U.S. troops are in the region, with B-52 and B-1 bombers conducting simulated bombing exercises near Venezuela’s airspace—a significant escalation.

Geopolitical instability has historically boosted demand for gold, and the current environment shows no signs of reversing that trend.

Dollar Weakness and Rate Cuts Are Strengthening Gold’s Bull Case

Two more price drivers for gold are currency devaluation and interest rate cuts. The US Dollar Index is down nearly 8% from its YTD high, which it hit a week before Trump’s inauguration.

Trump’s tariff announcements, which fueled the first stage of the USD’s decline this year, have raised inflation expectations.

At the same time, soft economic data—including rising unemployment, increasing layoffs, and weak nonfarm payrolls—have already resulted in the Federal Reserve cutting rates twice this year.

If current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is replaced with a dovish Trump ally when his term ends in May 2026, more interest rate cuts could be in store next year.

Lower interest rates would appeal to gold bugs, since interest rates and gold prices have a historically inverse relationship. When the former decreases, the latter tends to increase since yield-producing assets lose their luster in a lower-rate environment.

In those cases, investors traditionally turn to gold for the precious metal’s upside potential. Both of those outcomes are likely if the Fed continues down a path of looser monetary policy.

Source: investing

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Adam

Commodity

Oil prices have steadied in the last couple of days following Tuesday’s news-driven drop when reports of a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia hit the wires. The recovery comes despite a larger-than-expected build in US oil inventories. Price action, therefore, suggests that most of the bearish news might already be factored in.

But so long as there is no compelling reason for prices to rally, the longer-term outlook on oil remains negative. Indeed, a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia—whenever that arrives – could mean more supplies hitting a market already saturated. Negotiations are trundling along between Kyiv, Moscow, and Washington, and that might take a while.

So, nothing is signed yet, and that explains why prices have stopped falling for now. Mind you, even if a peace doesn’t come to fruition, crude’s upside still looks capped. Between excessive supply and flimsy demand growth, the prices remain tilted to the bearish side.

Russia-Ukraine Potential Peace Could Hurt Oil Prices Further

Markets have been slow in pre-pricing peace because of the nature of the uncertainty, but peace could eventually mean eased sanctions on Russia. And if sanctions are relaxed, we might see more Russian barrels sloshing back onto a global market that’s already awash with crude.

Thus, any real progress towards peace this week could add pressure to oil prices, as investors price in larger supply into a market that frankly doesn’t need it. The simple arithmetic of crude markets is this: more oil + steady or falling demand = lower prices. And the sums right now aren’t flattering.

The Supply Problem

Let’s rewind to before the diplomatic chatter took centre stage this week regarding the Ukraine war. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) had already been on a multi-week losing streak, languishing below the psychologically important $60.00 mark. The OPEC+ has been releasing previously withheld output, producing more oil when demand is hardly crying out for it.

Meanwhile, American oil producers have been pumping too. The result is oversupply, and it is this concern dominating headlines and pressuring prices.

So, with the OPEC+ loosening the taps and US shale adding to the flow, prices will be finding it difficult to stage anything more than brief relief bounces – like the ones we have seen repeatedly in the past. Until something changes fundamentally, this supply pressure should keep prices under pressure.

Demand: Not So Great Either

Now, supply is very much the elephant in the room, but we can’t ignore demand entirely. The US economy has been sending mixed signals, with recent economic prints coming through a tad soft. Investors are squinting at the data, wondering if oil consumption will hold up into next year. The global demand picture isn’t exactly inspiring confidence either.

Should demand weaken further whilst supply continues its upward march, we may well see the market slide deeper into disequilibrium. Crude prices would therefore need to adjust lower to find new equilibrium. Until the world economy shows signs of picking up pace—or supply meaningfully pulls back—the demand story may add incremental pressure to an already fragile price environment.

WTI Technical Analysis and Trade Ideas

The chart of crude oil has been painting a textbook downtrend: lower highs, lower lows. The main moving averages and the trend lines all have negative slopes. The recovery off the lows should therefore be taken with a pinch of salt until we see a clear bullish reversal – and some positive oil news to go with it.

Crude Oil Faces Stiff Resistance Near $60 With Downtrend Poised to Resume_1

So, where are the key levels on WTI futures?

$59.00 is the initial level of resistance, with a bearish trend line coming in slightly above it

$60.00 per barrel remains the big psychological resistance level for WTI

Clear these two levels and $62.00 would come into focus next

Support is seen around $57.25 area initially

Most recent low was around $56.00 in October, making it the next logical target for the bears

April low at $55.12 is the April low and the main downside objective as it comes in just ahead of the next psychological level of $55.00.

Unless fundamentals shift sharply, and there’s no major evidence of that just yet, the continuation of this downtrend in the weeks ahead wouldn’t be a shock to the system.

Source: investing

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Adam

Commodity

Rising ETF demand, steady central-bank buying, and the growing need to hedge with real assets will push gold prices to $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026, according to commodity strategists at Morgan Stanley.

The investment bank noted that after four years of net selling, ETF flows have “nearly fully reversed,” with this year’s inflows the strongest since 2020, and they expect this trend to continue as interest rates fall.

The analysts said that central banks “are still adding gold to their reserves,” while jewelry demand is stabilizing, supporting broad-based physical demand. They added that a pullback would create buying opportunities, and that investors are reassessing gold’s role as a hedge amid inflation uncertainty and shifting macro risk.

Morgan Stanley said gold is its top commodity pick for the coming year.

On Oct.22, just one day after gold posted its largest daily loss in 12 years, Morgan Stanley said they still expect the gold rally to continue, and they revised their 2026 price forecast up to $4,400 per ounce, a significant increase from the previous estimate of $3,313.

“Investors are watching gold not just as a hedge against inflation, but as a barometer for everything from central bank policy to geopolitical risk,” said Morgan Stanley Metals & Mining Commodity Strategist Amy Gower. “We see further upside in gold, driven by a falling U.S. dollar, strong ETF buying, continued central bank purchases and a backdrop of uncertainty supporting demand for this safe-haven asset.”

Morgan Stanley Research sees ongoing support for the rally coming from a number of areas.

“For the first time since 1996, gold now accounts for a larger share of central bank reserves than U.S. Treasuries—a powerful signal of confidence in the metal’s long-term value,” they noted. “Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also been strong buyers of gold, signaling renewed interest from institutional investors. ETFs backed by physical gold posted a record inflow of $26 billion in the third quarter. Their total assets under management ended the quarter at $472 billion, also a record.”

And after two years spent largely on the sidelines, retail investors are also joining the gold rush.

“As markets expect the U.S. dollar to weaken on prospects of slower growth in the world’s largest economy, many investors are shifting their safe-haven portfolios, moving from dollar-denominated assets to gold,” the analysts said. “Additionally, a weaker dollar makes gold more affordable for international buyers.”

Fed interest rate cuts are providing another boost to gold prices, with Morgan Stanley noting that since the 1990s, gold prices have averaged a 6% increase in the 60 days following the start of a Fed rate-cutting cycle.

“With all these factors, it probably comes as no surprise that gold is right up at the top of our order of preference among commodities,” Gower said.

Source: kitco

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Forex

Economic

Central Bank

The U.S. dollar headed for its steepest weekly drop in four months on Thursday as investors bet on further monetary easing, amid pressure from President Donald Trump to cut rates.

The yen edged 0.10% higher to 156.33 per dollar, helped by a hawkish turn in tone from Bank of Japan officials.

U.S. markets are shut for Thanksgiving, leaving liquidity thin and amplifying trading moves.

"That could be an attractive environment for Japanese authorities to intervene in dollar/yen," said Francesco Pesole, forex strategist at ING.

"However, there may still be a preference to intervene after a dollar-negative data event, and the stall in the pair may have removed some sense of urgency," he added.

RATE OUTLOOK WEIGHS ON DOLLAR

The U.S. dollar index was up 0.05% at 99.58, having retreated from a six-month high hit a week ago to head for its largest weekly drop since July. It is currently down 0.60% on a weekly basis.

Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, urged investors to review their currency allocations as the appeal of the U.S. dollar fades, recommending the euro and Australian dollar over the greenback.

If White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett - an advocate for rate cuts - is appointed the next Federal Reserve chair, it ought to be a negative catalyst for the dollar, investors said.

Views on the dollar’s outlook remain divided.

"We've gone through a period where rate differentials and euro growth expectations clearly benefited Europe over the U.S.," said Themos Fiotakis, global head of forex strategy at Barclays.

"Looking ahead, some of those assumptions are being challenged. The euro’s expensiveness is one reason, but the robustness and resilience of the U.S. economy is another," he added.

EURO, SWISS FRANC AFFECTED BY UKRAINE PEACE TALKS

The euro dropped 0.05% to $1.1596, after hitting a 1 1/2-week high earlier in the session at $1.1613.

Markets are watching negotiations over a possible Ukraine peace deal, which could lift the single currency.

President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that the outlines of a draft peace plan discussed by the United States and Ukraine could become the basis of future agreements to end the conflict in Ukraine but that if not then Russia would continue to fight.

An agreement would instead weigh on the Swiss franc given its role as a geopolitical safe haven, but analysts say there is little sign of a 'peace dividend' yet as uncertainty remains high.

The dollar hit a one-week low against the Swiss franc at 0.8028, and was last up 0.16% at 0.8056.

AUSSIE AND KIWI ON THE RISE

A resurgent New Zealand dollar skipped out to a three-week peak of $0.5728 and has gained about 2% since a hawkish shift at the central bank a day earlier.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates on Wednesday but said a hold was discussed and flagged that the easing cycle was likely over. Helped by some strong economic data on Thursday, markets see rates rising and price in a hike by December 2026.

That contrasts with more than 90 basis points of cuts priced for the U.S. Federal Reserve between now and the end of next year.

The Australian dollar has also been gaining after a hotter-than-expected inflation reading on Wednesday added to the case that the easing cycle there is also finished.

Australia's rates are the highest in the G10, which analysts said makes the currency look cheap.

At $0.6536 the Aussie is in the middle of a channel where it has traded for about 18 months.

Source: reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Cryptocurrency

The crypto market enjoyed a much-needed boost on Thursday as the two largest tokens rallied, with the bitcoin (BTC-USD) price rising to $91,700 and ether (ETH-USD) to $3,030.

The gains followed Wednesday's strong recovery in equities. That was led by tech stocks like Alphabet (GOOG) and Nvidia (NVDA), with the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) posting its best four-day streak since May.

Traders remain focused on bitcoin as opposed to lower liquidity altcoins. BTC's 5.4% gain over the past 24 hours outperformed 18 of the 20 largest crypto tokens by market cap.

This was reflected in CoinMarketCap's "altcoin season" indicator, which remains at a lowly 22/100, down considerably from October's high of 67/100.

Derivatives positioning

Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, dropped further back to 50%, almost entirely retracing last week's spike to 65%, TradingView data shows.

Traders piled into a bullish year-end call-condor structure, ranging between $100,000 and $118,000 strikes, worth $6.5 million in premium, according to Deribit Insights.

This signals expectations for a potential “Santa rally,” even as steady call overwriting around $100,000 and easing downside hedging kept implied volatility subdued.

Open interest for bitcoin remained consistent with the past 24 hours' price gains, indicating that the move was spurred by spot buying rather than futures activity.

Altcoin derivatives painted a different story: Open interest for ether (ETH), solana (SOL) and particularly zcash (ZEC) rose disproportionately to suggest that traders are flocking to the risk-taking approach of buying with leverage, according to Coinalyze.

Wednesday's total trading volume mirrored Tuesday's, and a slight lull going into Thursday can be attributed to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S.

Token talk

The altcoin market, while in general lagging behind bitcoin, showed signs of strength on Thursday.

The SKY token, previously MKR, rose by 10% as it began to show signs of a reversal from last week's low of $0.041.

There were also gains for DASH, ETHFI and AVAX, all of which rose by between 6.7% and 7.7%.

The optimism wasn't correlated across the entire market: Ethena (ENA) and bittensor (TAO) both dropped by more than 2%, suggesting the optimism wasn't unanimous across the board.

The crypto market's average relative strength index (RSI) shows it is edging toward "overbought" territory, with tokens like AVAX, SPX and PENDLE firmly in the overbought zone, suggesting that a pullback may be on the cards moving into Friday unless meaningful demand and volume can be sustained.

The altcoin market ultimately depends on bitcoin's next move. If bitcoin can begin to break the downtrend that started in October and push back toward $100,000, altcoins will likely follow. However, if it gives back this week's gains and begins to fall into trouble at the low $80,000 level, altcoins will underperform and potentially break their own levels of support due to a low liquidity environment.

Source: finance.yahoo

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Commodity

Oil prices steadied on Thursday as market participants weighed talks to end the war in Ukraine against the impact of Western sanctions against Russian supply, though trading was set to remain thin due ‌to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.

Brent crude futures rose 5 cents or 0.1% to stand at $63.‌18 a barrel at 1303 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 16 cents or 0.3% to $58.81 a barrel.

U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is set to travel to Moscow next week with other senior U.S. officials for talks with ⁠Russian leaders on a possible plan ‌to end the nearly four-year-old war in Ukraine, the deadliest in Europe since World War Two.

Still, Russia will make no big ‍concessions on a peace plan, a senior Russian diplomat said on Wednesday, after a leaked recording of a call involving Witkoff showed he had advised Moscow on how to pitch to U.S. President Donald Trump.

"Geopolitical volatility continues and hopes of a potential ceasefire between Russia and ‌Ukraine have neutralized the supply concerns arising from new US sanctions on key Russian producers," Barclays said in a note.

Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies are likely to leave output levels unchanged at a meeting on Sunday, three OPEC+ sources told Reuters on Tuesday. Some members of the group, which pumps about half the world's ⁠oil, have been raising production since April to gain market share.

Limiting crude price declines were rising expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December. A lower rate typically stimulates economic growth and bolsters demand for oil.

"We are ‍now approaching the year-end ⁠with thinner liquidity without any new drivers unless the Fed surprises the markets with a hawkish guidance on the 10 December FOMC meeting," said OANDA senior market analyst ⁠Kelvin Wong.

"WTI crude is likely to be range-bound between US$56.80 and US$60.40 till year-‌end," he added.