Todd Combs Leaves Berkshire Hathaway for JPMorgan, Signaling Strategic Shift in Security and Resiliency Investment

Economic

Summary:

Todd Combs, longtime investment lieutenant to Warren Buffett and CEO of Geico, is departing Berkshire Hathaway to lead JPMorgan’s newly launched $1.5 trillion Security and Resiliency Initiative...

Strategic Transition: Combs Exits Berkshire for JPMorgan Leadership Role

In a significant shift that marks the beginning of a new era at both Berkshire Hathaway and JPMorgan Chase, Todd Combs one of Warren Buffett’s most trusted investment officers and CEO of Geico is stepping down to join JPMorgan. His new role will be to head the firm’s newly launched Security and Resiliency Initiative, a large-scale investment program aimed at strengthening national and economic infrastructure across key sectors including defense, aerospace, energy, and healthcare.

Combs, 54, has been a central figure in Berkshire Hathaway’s investment strategy since joining in 2010 from his hedge fund Castle Point. Alongside Ted Weschler, he was groomed to help manage and eventually oversee the sprawling equity portfolio that includes blue-chip holdings such as Apple, Coca-Cola, and Bank of America. His sudden departure comes as Warren Buffett, now 95, prepares to hand over the CEO role to Greg Abel in 2026, leaving the firm’s investment succession plan less defined.

JPMorgan’s $1.5 Trillion Security Initiative Targets Strategic Growth Sectors

Combs’ new role places him at the helm of one of JPMorgan’s most ambitious ventures. Initially seeded with $10 billion in deployable capital, the Security and Resiliency Initiative is ultimately projected to channel $1.5 trillion in investments toward sectors deemed critical for long-term stability and global competitiveness.

This strategic program represents more than just capital deployment it is part of a broader economic doctrine JPMorgan is cultivating, aimed at driving public-private alignment in high-stakes industries. With geopolitical risks rising and national security threats becoming increasingly complex, JPMorgan is positioning itself as a major force in building and securing the infrastructure of the future.

The initiative will be guided by a high-profile advisory council that includes Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Dell Technologies Chairman Michael Dell, former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. This blend of tech, policy, and defense leadership underscores the program’s comprehensive, cross-sector mandate.

Buffett and Dimon Signal Mutual Confidence in Leadership Realignment

Warren Buffett praised Combs in Berkshire’s announcement, noting that the executive “made many great hires at GEICO and broadened its horizons.” The Oracle of Omaha’s endorsement implies a cordial and mutually beneficial departure, though it inevitably raises questions about how Berkshire will manage its equity positions moving forward.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, in turn, celebrated Combs’ move as a strategic gain for the bank, stating: “Todd Combs is one of the greatest investors and leaders I’ve known.” Dimon emphasized Combs’ deep understanding of JPMorgan, honed over his nine years on the board, and praised his ability to align financial strategy with broader societal goals “to make the world more secure.”

Combs will also serve as a special advisor to Dimon, highlighting the strategic importance of this hire beyond just investment management.

Implications for Berkshire Hathaway’s Investment Future

Combs’ exit places renewed focus on the internal structure of Berkshire’s future investment management. With Buffett stepping down from the CEO role in 2026 and Ted Weschler remaining as the other senior portfolio manager, questions linger over whether Weschler will assume full responsibility or if a new leadership figure will be introduced to help steward the firm’s enormous equity portfolio.

As Berkshire’s investment decisions carry weight not just for shareholders but also for market sentiment broadly, continuity and clarity in its investment team are critical. Combs’ departure introduces uncertainty at a delicate time for succession planning.

A Redefinition of Strategic Investment Leadership

Todd Combs’ move to JPMorgan signals a major leadership realignment within U.S. financial and investment circles. It not only leaves a notable gap at Berkshire Hathaway but also reinforces JPMorgan’s aggressive push into long-horizon, security-focused investing. By recruiting a seasoned investor with experience under Buffett’s tutelage, JPMorgan is underscoring its strategic intent to align finance with national resilience and global influence.

As traditional finance adapts to a new geopolitical and technological landscape, the intersection of investment, security, and innovation may well define the next phase of capital deployment and Combs is now positioned at the forefront of that transformation.

Source: CNBC

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Blue River

Forex

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The euro initially rallied a bit during the trading session here on Monday, but it is starting to give back gains again, just like it did on Friday. All things being equal, this is a market that I think is essentially on hold at the moment, as we have the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday. But the dynamics of this pair are interesting because the ECB is expected to hold rates, so that has helped firm the euro slightly. And the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates on Wednesday, but the question then becomes, what did they say during the press conference?

It is because of this, I think the next day or two is probably going to be very choppy and very sideways. As traders wait for the next data point that truly matters, we are in the middle of a consolidation area. That being said, all things being equal, I still favor the downside. But I think we need something to get us going to the downside, such as Jerome Powell giving us a cut, but maybe suggesting that the Fed is hesitant to cut rapidly.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British pound looks like it is rolling over a little bit. And that's not a huge surprise because we had that explosive move a couple of days back due to the budget. The question is, will that budget change the trajectory of the economy? The answer, of course, is no. And recently, the Bank of England came within a whisker of cutting the rate. So, I think the market is starting to focus on that again.

At this point, we'll be watching 1.32 to see if we can break down below it. If we can, then that's a very negative sign. If we bounce from there, then we could head back into the previous consolidation. And just like in the case of the euro, I think it's the Federal Reserve that determines the next move.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

The euro rallied slightly during the trading session on Monday, but it's hanging around the 50-day EMA. And I think this is an area that is going to continue to be somewhat noisy. All things being equal, I think we're just killing time here. But if we were to break down below the 0.87 level, then I think the market really starts to drop. If we rally from here and clear the 0.875 level, then I think we go looking at the 0.8850 level again. That being said, this is a very choppy market. It always is choppy. So, I'm not looking for rapid or quick moves.

Source: FX Empire

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Gerik

Economic

From Drones to Defense Contracts: Startups Hit Scaling Roadblocks

After a meteoric rise in attention and valuations, Silicon Valley–backed defense startups are entering a new, more difficult phase. Once admired for agile innovation and cutting-edge AI-driven military technologies, these companies are now grappling with the structural and operational challenges of building weapons at scale. Their recent success, amplified by the effectiveness of drones in the Russia-Ukraine war, brought a surge of Pentagon interest and funding. However, that same spotlight has exposed their limited manufacturing capabilities and unfamiliarity with the defense sector’s rigid procurement systems.

Startups such as Saronic Technologies and Anduril Industries exemplify the sector’s explosive growth. Saronic, which develops unmanned naval drones, reached a $4 billion valuation in February and is building a shipyard in Louisiana. Anduril, founded by Oculus creator Palmer Luckey, doubled its valuation to $30 billion by June. Meanwhile, Chaos Industries, a sensor and radar tech firm, also saw its valuation double to $4.5 billion after a recent funding round. But turning these valuations into long-term defense supply contracts requires more than technological innovation.

Pentagon Contracts Rise, but the Path to Scale Remains Elusive

According to Govini, a defense analytics firm, startup firms now command 1.3% of U.S. defense contracts, up from 0.6% last year a clear sign of growing inclusion in Pentagon procurement. Despite this, the traditional defense "primes" like Lockheed Martin, Boeing, RTX, and Northrop Grumman still dominate, holding over 92% of contract value. This contrast illustrates a fundamental bottleneck: while the Department of Defense is experimenting with startups, the bulk of major programs continues to flow to legacy contractors.

Christopher Calio, CEO of RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies), emphasized this barrier: “It’s one thing to design and innovate. It’s another thing to build a prototype, and then it’s an entirely different ball game to scale manufacturing.” This sentiment reflects the causal relationship between scale and institutional trust: without demonstrating the ability to mass-produce and deliver reliably, startups will remain confined to small, exploratory contracts.

Cultural Divide and Pentagon Resistance to Change

The annual Reagan National Defense Forum, held this week in Simi Valley, California, revealed a telling juxtaposition: traditional defense CEOs in suits exchanging ideas with hoodie-wearing startup founders. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth acknowledged the urgency of evolving the system, pledging to “transform the entire acquisition system to rapidly accelerate the fielding of capabilities and focus on results.”

However, deep-rooted obstacles persist. Entrenched political interests, legacy project backlogs, and a bureaucratic acquisition system designed around multibillion-dollar programs present systemic resistance. According to Zach Shore, chief revenue officer at Hermeus (a hypersonic aircraft startup), most firms struggle to move from $10–30 million prototype awards to full production-scale programs. This reveals a persistent structural barrier: despite policy rhetoric, the Pentagon’s procurement architecture remains largely inaccessible to newcomers beyond the pilot stage.

New Partnerships Signal a Shifting Landscape

While challenges remain, some large defense players are beginning to recognize the innovation edge that startups bring. L3Harris Technologies CEO Chris Kubasik highlighted the need for collaboration: “We need to leverage the established companies and the new entrants.” Recent partnerships support this idea. For example, Shield AI has partnered with HII, America’s largest military shipbuilder, to co-develop autonomous naval vessels. Anduril has also joined forces with South Korea’s HD Hyundai Heavy Industries for military and commercial shipbuilding.

These collaborations could serve as a bridge over the “valley of death” many startups face a term referring to the phase between innovation and sustainable revenue from large-scale contracts. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, who recently committed $10 billion in equity investments to defense tech and manufacturing, warned that legacy firms are not immune to stagnation. “There’s a valley of death for big companies too, driven by complacency, arrogance, bureaucracy,” he stated, underscoring the risk of institutional inertia in both old and new players.

A Tipping Point in U.S. Defense Innovation

Silicon Valley’s growing presence in U.S. defense contracting marks a significant cultural and technological shift. Yet, despite impressive valuations and media attention, the challenge remains deeply structural. Scaling up to meet Pentagon demands requires more than technical prowess it demands long-term manufacturing capabilities, patient capital, and systemic procurement reform.

As innovation pressure builds particularly with geopolitical concerns such as China’s military expansion the Pentagon’s ability to integrate nimble startups into its traditionally slow-moving system could determine the future shape of U.S. military competitiveness. In the words of Anduril’s strategy head Zach Mears, “The light switch is in the middle of being flipped.” Whether it stays on will depend on whether startups can transition from flashy prototypes to full-fledged defense partners and whether Washington lets them.

Source: Reuters

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Samantha Luan

Political

Economic

Key points:

· Firefighter dies after struck by tree

· Sixteen homes lost on Central Coast region in New South Wales

· Tasmania blaze destroys 19 homes at Dolphin Sands

An Australian firefighter was killed overnight after he was struck by a tree while trying to control a bushfire that had destroyed homes and burnt large swathes of bushland north of Sydney, authorities said on Monday.

Emergency crews rushed to bushland near the rural town of Bulahdelah, 200 km (124 miles) north of Sydney, after reports that a tree had fallen on a man. The 59-year-old suffered a cardiac arrest and died at the scene, officials said.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the "terrible news is a sombre reminder" of the dangers faced by emergency services personnel as they work to protect homes and families.

"We honour that bravery, every day," Albanese said in a statement.

More than 50 bushfires were burning across the state of New South Wales as of Monday morning. A fast-moving fire over the weekend destroyed 16 homes in the state's Central Coast, home to about 350,000 people and a commuter region just north of Sydney.

Resident Rouchelle Doust, from the hard-hit town of Koolewong, said she and her husband tried to save their home as flames advanced.

"He's up there in his bare feet trying to put it out, and he's trying and trying, and I'm screaming at him to come down," Doust told the Australian Broadcasting Corp.

"Everything's in it: his grandmother's stuff, his mother's stuff, all my stuff - everything, it's all gone, the whole lot."

Conditions eased overnight, allowing officials to downgrade alerts to the advice level, the second-lowest danger rating.

On the island state of Tasmania, a 700-hectare (1,729 acres) blaze at Dolphin Sands, about 150 km (93 miles) northeast of the state capital of Hobart, destroyed 19 homes and damaged 40. The fire has been contained, but residents have been warned not to return as conditions remain dangerous, officials said.

Authorities have warned of a high-risk bushfire season during Australia's summer months from December to February, with increased chances of extreme heat across large parts of the country following several relatively quiet years.

New South Wales is among Australia's most wildfire-prone regions, with some experts saying climate change is increasing the danger. Australia's "Black Summer" fires of 2019-2020 destroyed an area the size of Turkey and killed 33 people.

Source: TradingView

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Adam

Stocks

U.S. stock futures were little changed Monday, consolidating after two straight weekly gains with investors turned their attention to this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, which is widely expected to deliver an interest-rate cut.

At 05:35 ET (10:35 GMT), Dow Jones Futures slipped 3 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500 Futures inched 8 points, or 0.1%, higher and Nasdaq 100 Futures gained 65 points, or 0.3%.

All three major U.S. stock indexes recorded positive weeks last week, their second in a row, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite also notched four-day winning streaks on Friday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been positive in three of the last four sessions.

Caution ahead of Fed decision

This positive tone exists as many investors expect the Fed to ease monetary policy on Wednesday, especially after the delayed release of September’s core personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — came in softer than expected on Friday.

That cooler inflation reading, combined with signs of a softening labor market and fragile consumer spending, has reinforced the case for the Fed to provide more policy support.

There’s little in the way of economic data to change the narrative Monday, although Tuesday’s JOLTS job openings data could take on additional importance given the monthly official jobs report is now being released after the Fed meeting.

Fed funds futures are pricing in a roughly 88% chance of a Fed cut, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

The language used by the Fed officials, especially in the post-meeting statement and the projections for 2026, will be closely watched.

"The key question is what will the Fed signal for next year, given that we will be getting a new forecast update from them," ING analysts said in a note.

"As such, the most dovish they could possibly be is to put a second rate cut for their 2026 forecast, but they will be reluctant," they added.

Lululemon, Costco earnings awaited

Corporate earnings are also set to play a role in market direction, with results due from the likes of Lululemon , Costco , Broadcom, Oracle, and Adobe this week.

Separately, S&P Global said Carvana Co, CRH PLC , and Comfort Systems will join the S&P 500 index on Dec. 22, a change that typically sparks repositioning among index-tracking funds.

Crude hand back some gains

Oil prices slipped lower Monday, falling from near two-week highs on Monday as investors look to the Federal Reserve for guidance.

Brent futures dropped 0.9% to $63.20 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.9% to $59.54 a barrel.

Both contracts closed Friday’s trading session at their highest levels since November 18.

Aside from the Fed meeting, progress towards peace in Ukraine remains slow, and Reuters reported that the Group of Seven countries and the European Union are in talks to replace a price cap on Russian oil exports with a full maritime services ban, which would likely further curb supply from the world’s second-largest oil producer.

Source: investing

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Warren Takunda

Economic

China’s exports returned to growth in November after an unexpected contraction in October, pushing its trade surplus in dollar terms for 2025 past the $1 trillion mark for the first time, according to data released Monday.

Exports climbed 5.9% from a year earlier in November while imports rose just under 2%.

The customs data released on Monday also showed that shipments to the U.S. dropped nearly 29% year-on-year. But as trade with the U.S. weakens, China is diversifying its export markets throughout Southeast Asia, Africa, Europe and Latin America.

China’s exports had contracted just over 1% in October. November’s worldwide exports of $330.3 billion exceeded economists’ estimates. Imports totaled $218.6 billion for the month.

The nearly $1.08 trillion trade surplus for the first 11 months of this year is a record high, surpassing the $992 billion surplus for all of 2024, based on official data compiled by FactSet.

A year-long trade truce between China and the U.S. was reached at a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in late October in South Korea. The U.S. has lowered its tariffs on China, and China has promised to halt its export controls related to rare earths.“It’s likely that November exports have yet to fully reflect the tariff cut, which should feed through in the coming months,” ING Bank chief economist for Greater China Lynn Song wrote in a report.

China’s factory activity contracted for an eighth straight month in November, according to an official survey, and economists said it was still early to determine whether there was a real rebound in external demand following the U.S.-China trade truce.

With exports still going strong, economists generally expect China to meet its target of around 5% annual growth for this year.

Chinese leaders outlined a focus on advanced manufacturing for the next five years following a high-level meeting in October. It also highlighted the need to boost domestic consumption, which could help address trade imbalances.

A meeting of the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s decision-making Politburo was held on Monday, led by Xi, to discuss economic plans for 2026, according to the Xinhua state news agency. It said Chinese leaders reiterated a focus on “pursuing progress while ensuring stability.”

A readout from Xinhua said China needs to better coordinate its domestic economic work in the face of global “trade struggles.”

Businesses and investors are paying close attention to China’s annual Central Economic Work Conference, which is expected to take place later this month and could map out economic priorities for the next year in more details.

“Trade diversification will remain a long-term strategy for China to fight the trade war and manage external exigencies,” said Chi Lo, Global Market Strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management.

The recent stabilization of trade relations with Washington is unlikely to last long and the global trade environment will probably continue to be volatile, he said, as China-U.S. relations “remain in a stalemate” despite their temporary trade truce.

Still, some economists believe that China will continue to gain export market share in coming years.

Morgan Stanley predicts by 2030, China’s market share in global exports will reach 16.5%, up from about 15% currently, fueled by its edge in advanced manufacturing and high-growth sectors such as electric vehicles, robotics and batteries.

“Despite persistent trade tensions, continued protectionism, and G20 economies taking up active industrial policies, we believe China will gain more share in the global goods export market,” Morgan Stanley Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya said in a recent note.

Source: AP

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Gerik

Economic

Ambitious Goals Meet Harsh Realities in Railway Overhaul

Argentina, a leading global exporter of soybeans, corn, and lithium, is embarking on an ambitious initiative to modernize and privatize its neglected freight railway network. The move, led by President Javier Milei, is a centerpiece of his broader strategy to reduce state burdens, attract foreign investment, and revitalize the economy. The first tender set for early 2026 will cover the Belgrano Cargas network, comprising the country’s three largest freight lines spanning nearly 8,000 kilometers.

The overarching goal is to drastically lower freight costs for inland producers and boost export competitiveness, especially from remote agricultural and mining regions. But while the plan holds long-term economic promise, the structural degradation of the railway system poses a steep challenge to implementation.

Historical Decline Undermines Present Capacity

According to Alejandro Núñez, president of Belgrano Cargas y Logística, Argentina’s current rail cargo volumes are lower than in 1970, despite agricultural output having multiplied sixfold since then. Today, the network transports just 7.5 million tons annually 60% of which are agricultural goods often on rails so deteriorated that derailments are common and cargo theft, especially of soybeans, is a recurring issue.

This mismatch between production growth and transport infrastructure exposes the core causal barrier to competitiveness: Argentina’s logistics system is outdated, inefficient, and overdependent on costly road freight. While rail accounts for just 5% of domestic cargo transport, Brazil moves 20% by rail and the U.S. and Canada exceed 40%.

Privatization Linked to Broader Economic Strategy

The privatization effort aligns with President Milei’s ideological push to shrink the public sector and attract capital into critical sectors. Officials view railway upgrades as essential to achieving the government’s export target of $100 billion annually by 2032, up from $71.5 billion recorded through October 2025. Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno has underscored that reducing inland transport costs especially from provinces like Salta to Rosario’s port zone will be key to this export push.

In practical terms, transporting grain from Salta to Rosario is currently more expensive than shipping the same volume from Rosario to Vietnam. This reveals a direct cost inefficiency rooted not in global trade dynamics, but in domestic infrastructure failure.

Investment Interest and Infrastructure Cost Outlook

The modernization plan will require significant capital. Núñez estimates a minimum of $800 million to bring current lines up to standard. That figure could rise substantially as additional 11,000 kilometers of idle rail lines are included in future tenders.

Major players are already showing interest. Grupo México Transportes (GMXT) is expected to bid and is reportedly prepared to invest up to $3 billion if awarded the contract. Media reports also suggest agricultural giants like Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus, along with Rio Tinto, may join the bidding process. While none of the companies have publicly confirmed their plans, their involvement would inject considerable momentum into the project.

Boosting Agricultural and Mining Logistics

Experts argue that a revamped railway system could transform Argentina’s internal supply chain. Alfredo Sesé of the Rosario Stock Exchange notes that over half of Argentina’s agricultural production lies more than 300 kilometers from port. Given that trucking costs range from 7 to 9 cents per ton per kilometer, compared to rail’s sub-5 cent average, the savings from improved rail access would be substantial, especially for distant farms.

Mining, particularly lithium and copper, also stands to benefit. Roberto Cacciola of the Argentine Chamber of Mining Companies emphasized the need for reliable logistics to support existing projects and bring new extraction operations online in the coming years. As the world’s fourth-largest lithium exporter, Argentina is under pressure to streamline its mineral logistics to meet rising global demand.

While Argentina’s railway privatization and modernization initiative offers a bold blueprint for economic renewal, its success will hinge on overcoming entrenched inefficiencies, securing substantial investment, and navigating a complex political and logistical landscape. If realized, the project could redefine Argentina’s position in global grain and mineral markets. But with decades of underinvestment and structural decay to reverse, the journey from vision to reality will be a long one.