The Week Ahead

source : fxempire

CONFIRMED: The USS Nimitz aircraft carrier strike group is on its way to the Middle East from the South China Sea, a U.S. official tells Fox News. The Nimitz was previously scheduled to replace the USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group which has been deployed for several months, but is now heading to the Middle East ahead of schedule. The two will now be in the Middle East at the same time. The USS Nimitz is the oldest active aircraft carrier in the U.S. Navy, commissioned on May 3, 1975. Scheduled to be decommissioned in 2026, this is possibly its final sea voyage. This is a very significant symbolic deployment because it was deployed in 1980 and its helicopters that were part of the failed US effort known as Operation Eagle Claw to rescue the American hostages being held at the US Embassy in Tehran. The US has been in a shadow war against Iran ever since.

This comes on the heels of reports that the US Embassy in Tel Aviv suffered "minor damage" from a nearby Iranian ballistic missile impact.

Update(1008ET): Everything is suddenly exploding higher - also with gold and oil dropping - especially on the following WSJ breaking report which suggests (dubiously, we should add...) that the Iranians are 'open' to returning to the negotiating table with Trump officials, even as ballistic missiles rain down on Israel, and as much of the Islamic Republic - particularly oil depots - burn...

"In the midst of a ferocious Israeli air campaign, Tehran has told Arab officials they would be open to return to the negotiating table as long as the U.S. doesn’t join the attack, the officials said. They also passed messages to Israel saying it is in the interest of both sides to keep the violence contained," per WSJ on Monday.

Oil prices tumbling on the breaking report...

S&P 2% from ATH...

Gold has been falling since before the missile war started late on Thursday...

WSJ continues, "Iran has been urgently signaling that it seeks an end to hostilities and resumption of talks over its nuclear programs, sending messages to Israel and the U.S. via Arab intermediaries, Middle Eastern and European officials said."

This comes also amid reports that dozens of US Air Force tankers have in the last hours taken off from the United States and headed towards Europe, as also confirmed in Flightradar24 and Air Live. Is Trump ready to join the Israeli side militarily? The Iranians fear so, it appears.

Iran's message is that "it is in the interest of both sides to keep the violence contained" - according to an urgeng diplomatic message passed along. But at this point it seems clear that Israel is going for full regime decapitation, given also that reports say the Israel Air Force has total aerial dominance over Western Iran and skies above Tehran at this point. If these reports of an Iranian olive branch are accurate, is it too-little-too-late?

After another day on the receiving end of an Israeli war of aggression that began Friday, Iran delivered a major counterpunch overnight, further demonstrating that Israel's highly-touted Iron Dome defense system is vulnerable to Iran's hypersonic missiles. Upon completing a deadly barrage aimed at targets in Tel Aviv, Haifa and elsewhere, Iran claimed it had employed a "new method" that put Israel's multi-layered defense system in disarray to the point its various systems targeted each other.

As fire and rescue teams scrambled to respond to the damage, Times of Israel reported at least eight people had been killed and more than 90 injured in the early-Monday attack, bringing Israel's running death toll to at least 24 with hundreds wounded. “The arrogant dictator of Tehran has become a scared murderer who fires at Israel’s civilian home front in order to deter the IDF from continuing to carry out attacks that are destroying his capabilities,” said Defense Minister Israel Katz, only to then promise that "residents of Tehran will pay the price, and soon."

Iran claimed it struck targets that included a power plant in Haifa that "was seen engulfed in flames," an oil refinery complex in Bazan, a facility of the military technology company Rafael Advanced Defense Systems facility, as well as Ben Gurion Airport. The Cradle reports that other targets included Nevatim Air Base, an army camp in Galilee, and hits on power grid facilities that caused "widespread blackouts." Projectiles also hit a residential high-rise building and at least another residential area. An Iranian defense official said the attack included missiles with 1.5-ton warheads, but noted Iran has even heavier warheads in its inventory.

Citing a statement from the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, state media outlet PressTV reported that "the operation specifically targeted the Zionist regime’s command and control systems using advanced tactics and enhanced intelligence-tech capabilities."

“As a result,” the IRGC said, “the enemy’s multilayered defense systems were thrown into disarray, to the point where their own air defense units began firing on each other.” One video making the rounds on social media appears to show an IDF missile interceptor blowing itself up, though the careful observer must contemplate the possibility that an unforced IDF error captured on video may have been opportunistically exploited to make an exaggerated claim:

Dampening Israeli hopes that Iran may run out of missiles soon, Israeli National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi told Army Radio that Iran has "thousands of ballistic missiles" in its inventory, which the Times of Israel called "a higher figure than previously estimated."

Iran has similarly made repeated claims that it hasn't used its full resources yet. “We are still exercising restraint and have not deployed all our capabilities to avoid global chaos," IRGC chief Major General Mohsen Rezaei told Iranian state media. "However, we may reach a point where we use new weapons." While reiterating Iran's claim that it doesn't seek to acquire a nuclear weapon -- a claim re-certified as valid by the US intelligence community as recently as March of this year -- he hinted that Iran's stance on nuclear weapon development could change, saying "the future cannot be predicted with precision."

A question is starting to loom large: How long can this Israeli society -- which has for years gone almost entirely unscathed as its military unleashes utter devastation on lesser forces and civilian populations -- withstand prolonged destruction from a well-equipped foe like Iran?

Source: Zero Hedge

OPEC said on Monday it expected the global economy to remain resilient in the second half of this year despite concerns about trade conflicts and trimmed its forecast for growth in oil supply from producers outside the wider OPEC+ group in 2026.

In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries left its forecasts for global oil demand growth unchanged in 2025 and 2026, after reductions in April, saying the economic outlook was robust despite trade concerns."The global economy has outperformed expectations so far in the first half of 2025," OPEC said in the report.

"This strong base from the first half of 2025 is anticipated to provide support and sufficient momentum into a sound second half of 2025. However, the growth trend is expected to moderate slightly on a quarterly basis."

OPEC also said supply from countries outside the Declaration of Cooperation - the formal name for OPEC+ - will rise by about 730,000 barrels per day in 2026, down 70,000 bpd from last month's forecast.

Lower supply growth from outside OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, would make it easier for the wider group to balance the market. Rapid growth from U.S. shale and from other countries has weighed on prices in recent years.

Source: Kitco

All eyes on Fed 'dot plot'

In line of fire

Source: livemint

Foreign investment into the US could be threatened by Donald Trump’s new “revenge” taxes, analysts have warned.

A provision within the president’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act will allow the US to apply higher taxes on foreign individuals, businesses and investors connected to jurisdictions that impose “unfair foreign taxes” on US individuals and companies.

Companies listed on the London Stock Exchange could choose to avoid the measure by redomiciling in New York.

Section 899, as it is called, classes digital service taxes and “diverted profits taxes” as unfair, along with any taxes that target US entities. It would allow US authorities to impose an additional tax starting at 5% and increasing by five percentage points annually, up to 20%.

Max Yoeli, a senior research fellow in the US and the Americas programme at Chatham House, says section 899 “threatens to further alienate foreign investors”.

It could chill investment into the US by calling into question its “fundamental openness”, he added in a comment piece.

The Italian bank UniCredit agrees that section 899 could further damage foreign investor sentiment towards US dollar-denominated assets. It could backfire on the US, it says, given the large amount of domestic assets held by foreigners.

“The list of countries that would fall into this category is long and encompasses most European countries, including Italy and Germany,” UniCredit told clients, saying that foreign investors had more than doubled their holdings of US assets over the past decade.

“Not only would this additional tax serve to finance corporate tax reductions, but it would also likely be used as a negotiating tool for the US in trade deals, especially as Republicans seem willing to withdraw from the global minimum tax framework.”

A chart showing the value of US assets held by foreign investors, in trillions of US dollars. Photograph: UniCredit

UniCredit also fears the dollar’s safe haven status could be undermined if there are fresh tax disputes between the US and other countries.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act was passed by the US House of Representatives last month. The Senate is yet to approve the bill, with the White House setting a deadline of 4 July.

George Saravelos, the global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, warned last month that section 899 could allow the US administration to transform its trade war into a capital war by “explicitly using taxation on foreign holdings of US assets as leverage to further US economic goals”.

UK companies could certainly fall foul of section 899, as Britain operates a digital services tax aimed at tech multinationals, and a diverted profits tax designed to clamp down on tax avoidance by multinationals.

Goldman Sachs has calculated that UK corporates are “particularly exposed” to section 899, as roughly 30% of the revenues of companies listed on the FTSE 100 are generated in the US.

However, as companies that are majority-owned by US shareholders are exempt, City bosses may consider moving their stock market listing to New York, to dodge section 899.

“This ownership dynamic not only mitigates tax risk but also reinforces the strategic case for relisting in the US, where investor bases are deeper and more aligned with US revenue exposure,” the Goldman Sachs analysts said.

According to Goldman, the large UK companies with the most significant exposure to the US, and who are not majority-owned by US investors, are the media group Pearson, the business services group Experian, the pest control business Rentokil and the pharmaceuticals manufacturer Hikma.

Ashtead Group, Compass and Melrose also generate a large proportion of their sales stateside, but as they have majority US ownership they should be exempt from section 899.

French companies could also be at risk, as Paris operates a digital services tax on the revenues that large tech companies generate in France.

Source: Theguardian