Taxes, energy, and healthcare: 3 ways Senate's Trump megabill impacts the business world

Economic

Summary:

Trump’s megabill advances in the Senate, aiming to extend tax cuts, cut clean energy support in favor of fossil fuels, and slash Medicaid spending — leaving millions without healthcare coverage.

Senate leaders advanced President Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" on Tuesday in a vote that moved the megabill one step closer to becoming law despite three Republican defections, leading to a 50-50 tally that required Vice President JD Vance to break the tie in Trump's favor.

The process proved exceptionally contentious in recent days, largely over healthcare provisions and trims to the Medicaid program that are set to extract hundreds of billions in government savings but cause millions to lose coverage.

This portion of the bill fueled two of the Republican no votes — Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Susan Collins of Maine — and led to last-minute concessions to Lisa Murkowski of Alaska as a way of securing her yes vote.

The third Republican no vote was Rand Paul of Kentucky, who objected to the inclusion of a $5 trillion debt ceiling increase in the package.

Medicaid and that debt ceiling increase were just two pieces of a complex, nearly 900-page bill that is set to reshape whole swathes of the US economy, especially in the areas of tax rates, energy, and healthcare.

Clean energy companies — especially electric-vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA) — were perhaps paying the closest attention in recent days.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk emerged during final negotiations as the top business-world critic of the bill, attacking the price and how it treats clean energy. He said earlier Tuesday that the $3.3 increase in debt expected from the bill makes a "mockery" of his work at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Musk and others are also set to see impacts on their bottom line, with government support in the form of tax credits set to go away. But a last-minute change appeared to remove what could have been a new headwind in the form of an excise tax, which had raised particular ire.

Economists have likewise noted that the final price tag, which could top $4 trillion, and critiqued an accounting gimmick Republicans employed to hide much of that red ink.

Silicon Valley has growing questions after a last-minute change stripped a closely watched artificial intelligence provision from the bill.

But a range of GOP priorities that are included — from increased funding for border enforcement to the military to money for America's 250th anniversary celebration next year — pushed the bill over the line, with many in corporate America in favor and focused on the tax-cuts piece.

The Business Roundtable, which represents CEOs in Washington, D.C., urged passage in recent days and called it "critical legislation [to] protect and enhance the transformative economic benefits that President Trump's historic 2017 tax reform delivered for American businesses, workers and families."

President Trump on Tuesday morning expressed confidence it would reach his desk soon, calling it the "greatest bill ever passed," focusing on the border provisions and dismissing concerns that Americans would love their healthcare coverage.

The legislation now moves back to the US House of Representatives, which, after passing a previous version in May, is set to move quickly ahead, perhaps within hours, but with passage far from assured as criticisms from fiscal conservatives pile up in recent days (and Musk focused on flipping votes there).

For now, here is a closer look at three ways the current version of the bill, as blessed by the Senate, would impact the business world.

Changes for both the individual and corporate tax structure

A centerpiece of the bill — and far and away the most expensive provisions — surrounds taxes.

The bill's main impetus has long been to permanently extend tax cuts for individuals contained in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which Trump signed into law on a temporary basis during his first term as president.

The bill would represent a continuation of the status quo for taxpayers. As one example, if the bill is enacted, America's highest earners will see a continued top rate of 37%.

The bill also provides new tax credits for individuals by fulfilling signature Trump campaign promises — albeit slightly less fulsomely than in the House version — to eliminate taxes on tips, overtime, and car loan interest. It also offers an expanded standard deduction for seniors after Trump promised to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits.

Employees would be able to deduct up to $25,000 annually for tips and overtime in the Senate version, in contrast to the House's approach of 100% deductibility under certain income limits.

Business owners, meanwhile, are keenly focused on a series of tax deductions that will reinstate credits for corporations for things like property depreciation, capital investments, new factory construction, interest expenses, and research and development costs.

Many of these provisions were present in the House version, but only temporarily. Permanency was a key Senate priority and is now included in the bill, even as it increased the price tag.

The bill also makes permanent the pass-through deduction at a rate of 20%. That deduction — formally known as the 199A deduction — is focused on often smaller businesses organized as S corporations or partnerships.

The Senate version also includes an array of other tax changes, including a $40,000 annual deduction for state and local taxes (SALT) for some taxpayers in the coming years, enhanced credits for "opportunity zones," and so-called MAGA accounts.

A focus on energy and healthcare

The effect on the energy sector could be profound, especially after a last-minute series of changes turned the bill even further against the clean energy industry while offering new support for fossil fuels.

The bill has long been expected to phase out Biden-era clean energy tax credits, but the final Senate bill now aims to shut them down faster than expected.

A late addition to the bill also raised particular pique in the form of a new tax on wind and solar projects completed after 2027 if a certain amount of supplies came from China. But those objections appear to have led to a moderation, with CNN first noticing Tuesday morning that a final draft quietly removed that excise tax.

It gave clean energy advocates some solace, with Democratic Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts posting only that "We just forced them to take it out."

At the same time, new last-minute inducements were unveiled for fossil fuels, including one classifying coal as a critical mineral for a government manufacturing credit.

"We're doing coal," Trump said in an interview released over the weekend on Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures," where he also called solar energy projects "ugly as hell."

It was a mix that led Musk and others to predict that it would cut off clean energy, hurt the overall energy grid, and perhaps lead to higher utility bills. A statement from the American Clean Power Association said the effect would be to "undermine growth in domestic manufacturing and land hardest on rural communities who would have been the greatest beneficiaries of clean energy investment."

The bill is also set to implement major changes to the healthcare system, which Democrats say will hurt the social safety net and the healthcare sector.

Healthcare negotiations went until nearly the literal last minute, but the overall package is set to trim the government's Medicaid spending by around $900 billion in the years ahead.

Corners of the sector, like rural hospitals, are set to be most directly impacted. A $25 billion fund was included to cushion the blow for these providers from 2028 to 2032.

But the bottom line for patients — according to an accounting from the Congressional Budget Office that came in over the weekend — is that 11.8 million additional residents would become uninsured by 2034 because of the healthcare provisions.

Some would be illegal immigrants, as Republicans often point out, but millions are expected to be US citizens put off by a raft of additional requirements to qualify for coverage.

Capitol Hill has yet to offer its final verdict on the package, with House deliberations still in the offing, but the healthcare provisions in particular appear to have led Americans to grow increasingly skeptical.

A series of polls has shown a decline in support for the bill as the focus has turned to healthcare. Even a recent Fox News national poll found a 21-point gap between those who say they are opposed (59%) and those who say they are in favor (38%).

source :finance.yahoo

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Adam

Economic

GOP senators signaled they're close to bringing President Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act to a vote in the Senate today, with sights set on it clearing the House as soon as Wednesday. President Trump has demanded that Congress deliver the federal budget and tax bill to his desk for a signature by July Fourth. But there's still a chance that a rewrite could be necessary.

Some House GOP moderates dislike the sharper Medicaid spending curbs imposed by the Senate, while fiscal conservatives disapprove of the 940-page bill's bottom line. The Senate also took a tougher line on renewable energy tax credits, which prompted Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk to weigh in against the bill.

Big Beautiful Bill's Budget Math

Yet, apart from Tesla sliding as the Trump-Musk fight reignites, markets continue sailing along. Hospital stocks shrugged off deeper Medicaid cuts, as investors may believe moderates will limit the damage. Even renewable stocks bounced on news that Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-AK, , a key undecided vote, had an amendment to preserve production tax credits.

But if relief is in store for Medicaid spending cuts and Inflation Reduction Act tax credits, fiscal conservatives could bolt. And if they don't, that suggests bigger federal deficits, putting upward pressure on borrowing costs. Yet, the 10-year Treasury yield, trading in a tight range, is holding at 4.27%, suggesting little concern among bond investors.

A bit more clarity could come soon. Politico is reporting that Senate leaders will offer a broad amendment to seal up the remaining vote or two they need to assure passage. The amendment may tweak both Medicaid cuts and renewable tax credits.

Medicaid Cuts

The reality of the Big Beautiful Bill's tough trade-offs burst into the open on Sunday night, as Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) denounced Medicaid provisions that he said would cost his state $26 billion in support and kick 663,000 North Carolinians off their health plans. The speech also effectively ended his national political career, with Tillis opting to call off his 2026 reelection campaign, rather than do battle against both Trump and the Democrats.

Hospital operators including Tenet Healthcare (THC) slipped early Monday but then rallied, despite the revised Senate bill targeting $930 billion in cuts to Medicaid spending and about $230 billion in cuts to spending on tax credits to buy insurance on the Affordable Care Act health insurance exchanges.

By comparison, the House sought $793 billion in Medicaid cuts. And the Senate may not be done yet, with a vote still expected on an amendment that would gradually shift the 90%-10%, federal-state split of ACA Medicaid expansion costs closer to 50%-50%.

The Congressional Budget Office found that the House version of the OBBBA would increase the ranks of the uninsured by 10.9 million. That rises to 16 million due to the GOP's apparent decision to let enhanced premium tax credits for the ACA exchanges expire at the end of the year. The CBO hasn't yet evaluated the impact of the latest Senate version.

On June 24, 16 House Republicans wrote to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, taking issue with the Senate version of the bill that fails to "give hospitals time to adjust to new budgetary constraints."

Federal Budget Reverses Inflation Reduction Act

The Senate GOP's OBBBA changes to Inflation Reduction Act clean-energy tax credits also one-upped the House version. Both would reel in more than $400 billion in savings, however the Senate version goes a step further. Politico and other outlets reported on an analysis by Rhodium Group that indicates new wind and solar projects would face a tax starting in 2028, raising their cost by 10% to 20%, if they source components from China.

Musk said the Senate bill will "destroy millions of jobs," in a Sunday post. "While it subsidizes outdated industries, it deals a severe blow to future industries." On Monday, Musk went further, threatening to create a third party to target lawmakers who back the Big Beautiful Bill.

The bill, as expected, ends the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit.

OBBBA Budget Math

The Senate cut a few hundred billion less than the House in food aid and student loans. That at least partly explains why the bill doesn't come close to clearing the fiscal bar set by the House, which required that tax cuts exceed spending cuts by no more than $2.5 trillion over 10 years.

Based on the current law baseline, which assumes expiration of most 2017 tax cuts at the end of this year, CBO said the Senate version has $4.47 trillion in tax cuts and $1.21 trillion in spending cuts, raising deficits by $3.26 trillion. Based on current policy, CBO says the Senate bill cuts spending by $1.34 trillion and lowers taxes by $829 billion, lowering the deficit by $508 billion.

S&P 500

The S&P 500 dipped 0.1% in early Tuesday stock market action. On Monday, the S&P 500 rose 0.5% to a record high, leaving the benchmark index up 5.5% for the year and 7.3% since Election Day.

Be sure to read IBD's The Big Picture column after each trading day to get the latest on the prevailing stock market trend and what it means for your trading decisions.

Source: investors

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Manuel

Central Bank

Forex

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday the U.S. central bank has no plans to change how it offers dollar liquidity to other official entities.

Speaking on the matter of the Fed's dollar swap lines system, Powell told a gathering held by the European Central Bank that "we still have the same authorities, and we're still prepared to use them in situations where it's within our legal authorities and where we think it makes sense."

He added the dollar swap lines have made "a big contribution" to global financial stability.

Fed dollar swap lines offer collateralized loans to eligible central banks to ensure dollar liquidity is not an issue for the global financial system.

The current system, initiated during the global financial crisis, has been heavily used in times of crisis.

Fed swap lines now in place can lend dollar and foreign currencies, although it is the dollar-related facility that has been where the action has been. The swap line usage level can often be viewed as a proxy for international financial stress.

There has been some concern that the Fed's currency swap lines could be shuttered amid the Trump administration's retreat from multilateral international coordination and its broader skepticism over Fed actions, although so far, no action by elected officials has happened.

The system may also face longer run challenges as the trade policy pursued by the president may threaten the status of the dollar as a global reserve currency, which could make American money less needed by other nations, in turn reducing the need to borrow dollars in times of stress.

Speaking at the same central bank event, Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong noted that while the dollar swap lines had helped in times of trouble there were times when there could be local dollar liquidity issues the U.S. central bank could not address.

"Our understanding is that Fed cannot extend the swap lines in that case, and we have to self defense ourselves. That is why I think they're having an adequate, sufficient level of reserves is very important."

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Stocks

The US Dollar Index is down 10% in the first half of 2025. That’s the weakest year-to-date performance since 1972, when the United States moved away from the gold standard.

Several interrelated factors are dragging the dollar down. A major one is a chaotic trade and tariff policy that is still a work in progress. At the same time, there are growing concerns about the country’s public debt—concerns that will only get stronger if Congress passes the Trump administration’s “big, beautiful bill,” which will, at least on paper, increase the national debt by trillions of dollars over the next decade.

Commodity prices are also on the rise, and rising commodity prices tend to strengthen the currencies of major exporters like Canada and Australia. This in turn puts additional pressure on the US dollar. Plus, Europe and Asia are rebounding quickly from last year’s slowdown, causing a flight to safety to flow to foreign equities and bonds.

Despite all the negativity surrounding the US dollar, the S&P 500 hit an all-time high at the end of June. Many market analysts believe that many issues serving as headwinds today (tariffs, inflation, uncertainty on tax policy) will turn into tailwinds for gross domestic product (GDP) in the second half of the year.

Keeping all this in mind, here are three stocks that are likely to perform well while the dollar is weak and are also poised for a recovery right here in the United States.

Caterpillar: Global Demand and Onshoring Drive Growth

Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) stands out as a prime beneficiary of a weaker US dollar. With more than half of its revenue generated from international markets, the company gains when foreign earnings convert into stronger dollar terms. The company also benefits directly from rising commodity prices because its heavy machinery is heavily used in mining operations.

But there are also domestic catalysts at play with Caterpillar. Many companies have responded to the Trump administration’s calls to onshore their manufacturing, translating into increased demand for industrial equipment. These commitments, along with capital already committed to build data centers, will be bullish for Caterpillar.

That said, CAT stock is up over 11% in the last month and is now trading above the consensus price target of the analysts tracked by MarketBeat. The stock also has a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of over 19x, which makes it expensive compared to its historical levels as well as other industrial stocks.

While investors may want to wait for a little pullback, they may not want to wait too long. On June 24, Citigroup raised its price target for CAT stock from $370 to $420.

Procter & Gamble: A Weak Dollar Lifts International Sales

The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG) is similar to Caterpillar in that about 50% of the company’s revenue comes from overseas. That explains why its earnings per share (EPS) remain slightly higher year-over-year (YOY) even as its revenue is under pressure.

Consumer staples stocks in the United States have struggled lately. That’s because the pricing power that many companies enjoyed in 2020 and 2021 has turned into a liability as higher-for-longer interest rates and sticky inflation has caused consumers to be more discerning about how they spend their dollars.

PG stock is down about 5.4% through the first half of 2025. However, even at a forward P/E ratio of around 24x, the stock is still trading at a discount to itself. Analysts project EPS growth of around 6% over the next year, and even that forecast may underestimate potential gains if US economic conditions improve in the second half of the year.

IBM: AI and Quantum Bets Pay Off Abroad

At the midpoint of 2025, International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) may be ready to win the title of comeback stock of the year—or maybe of the decade. IBM stock is up 33% in 2025, and Wedbush recently raised its price target from $300 to $325. That would be a gain of over 10% for investors.

The company’s resurgence is largely driven by its ability to make artificial intelligence (AI) practical for large enterprises, particularly agentic AI. Like the other stocks on this list, IBM also generates significant revenue from international customers.

Another key driver is IBM’s long-standing investment in the quantum computing space. This has been a targeted bet for IBM over several years that is paying off as quantum computing becomes a reality.

The outperformance of IBM stock in 2025 makes it expensive based on many metrics. For example, its earnings yield of 2.07% is lower than its dividend yield, which suggests that IBM is paying out more in dividends than it earns in profit relative to its stock price. But IBM’s dividend is backed by the company’s free cash flow (FCF) ratio, which is higher than its historical averages.

Source: investing

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Owen Li

Central Bank

There is no prospect of a major challenge to the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency of choice any time soon, central bankers gathered for an annual conference in the Portuguese resort of Sintra said on Tuesday.

U.S. President Donald Trump's unpredictable economic, trade and security policies have spurred questions over whether the U.S. currency, which accounts for 58% of the world's reserves, can remain at the centre of the global monetary system.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who has argued the euro could over time become an alternative to the dollar if Europe's currency zone enacted necessary reforms, said 2025 could in future be viewed as "pivotal" in this respect.

"(But) for a major change to occur it will take a lot of time and a lot of effort," she told a panel with her U.S., British, Japanese and Korean counterparts.

She noted that "investors are looking at options" in a climate characterised by uncertainty and unpredictability and that there was evidence that the euro was benefiting from that.

"It's not going to happen just like that overnight. It never did historically," she said. "But there is clearly something that has been broken. Whether it is fixable, or whether it is going to continue to be broken - I think the jury's out."

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda also noted that any significant change would depend on structural reforms.

"It's to a certain extent up to what areas like Europe or China will do in terms of improving the efficiency or convenience of their currencies," he said, citing as an example the efforts at capital market integration in the euro zone.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said any change to the dollar's status was a long way off.

"I don't see ... a sort of a major shift at the moment," he said, arguing that any reserve currency had to offer a supply of safe assets into the market that can be used for purposes of collateral and security.

Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong said the prospect of a long-term shift of the dollar sentiment was a subject of discussion for some even as they retained their dollar holdings.

"It looks like people are talking about it. But at this moment they keep the dollar share while increasing their hedging ratio," he told the panel.

Lagarde told a recent audience in Berlin that there was an opening for a "global euro moment", if it earned it.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Adam

Economic

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that the U.S. central bank would have eased monetary policy by now if not for President Donald Trump’s tariff plan.

When asked during a panel if the Fed would have lowered rates again this year had Trump not announced his controversial plan to impose higher levies on imported goods earlier this year, Powell said, “I think that’s right.”

“In effect, we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs and essentially all inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs,” Powell said at European Central Bank forum in Sintra, Portugal.

Powell’s admission comes as the Fed has entered a holding pattern on interest rates despite mounting pressure from the White House.

The Fed last month held the key borrowing rate steady once again, keeping fed funds at the same range between 4.25% and 4.5% where it’s been since December.

The central bank’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee indicated via its so-called dot plot of members’ projections that there could be two cuts by the end of 2025. However, Powell also said at a press conference last month that the Fed was “well positioned” to remain in a wait-and-see mode.

On Tuesday, Powell was asked if July would be too soon for markets to expect a rate cut. He answered that that he “really can’t say” and that “it’s going to depend on the data.” Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a more than 76% likelihood that the central bank once again holds rates steady at the July policy gathering, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

“We are going meeting by meeting,” Powell said during Tuesday’s panel. “I wouldn’t take any meeting off the table or put it directly on the table. It’s going to depend on how the data evolve.”

Powell’s future at the Fed

The Fed’s unrelenting position to keep rates where they are for now has caught the ire of Trump and his administration, who have publicly admonished Powell for the central bank’s failure to lower borrowing costs. Trump last week called Powell “terrible” and said he was a “very average mentally person.”

When asked on Tuesday if he would stay on as Fed governor after his term as chair ends next year, Powell responded, “I have nothing for you on that today.” Powell’s term as a Fed chair ends in 2026, while his position as governor is set to run into 2028.

Global trade policy and Trump’s attacks on Powell took center stage at Tuesday’s event, where the U.S. Fed chief was flanked on the panel by other leaders of central banks from around the globe. International central bank leaders fielded questions ranging from whether they’d act as Powell if they were in his shoes, to whether nations are breaking away from the U.S.

Trump’s on again, off again tariff policy has put global markets and monetary policy makers on edge. The president first unveiled a plan for steep levies on imported goods in early April, before delaying many of the steepest tariffs shortly after when U.S. markets tumbled.

The U.S. stock market has more than regained losses recorded in the wake of Trump’s initial announcement, with the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs in recent days for the first time since February. But investors and monetary policymakers still report feeling uncertain about the future of global trade and its impact on global economic growth, profits and stock markets.

“All I want — and all anybody at the Fed wants — is to deliver an economy that has price stability, maximum employment, financial stability,” Powell said. “What keeps me awake at night is: How do we get that done? I want to hand over to my successor an economy in good shape.”

Source: cnbc

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Adam

Stocks

Shares of Tesla were under pressure on Tuesday after President Donald Trump said in a late-night social media post that the federal government should look into cutting subsidies for Elon Musk’s companies.

“Elon may get more subsidy than any human being in history, by far, and without subsidies, Elon would probably have to close up shop and head back home to South Africa. No more Rocket launches, Satellites, or Electric Car Production, and our Country would save a FORTUNE. Perhaps we should have DOGE take a good, hard, look at this? BIG MONEY TO BE SAVED!!!” the Truth Social post said.

“DOGE” refers to the so-called Department of Government Efficiency, which Musk led early in Trump’s administration before leaving his government role in late May Tesla’s stock was down nearly 5% on Tuesday. Some of Musk’s other ventures, including SpaceX and Starlink, are heavily reliant on government policy decisions.

Trump appeared to reiterate his idea to cut the subsidies when speaking to reporters on Tuesday morning.

“He’s upset that he’s losing his EV mandate ... but he can lose a lot more than that, I can tell you. Elon can lose a lot more than that,” Trump said.

Trump expanded on his comments again later Tuesday morning.

“I think what’s going to happen is DOGE is going to look at Musk. And if DOGE looks at Musk, we’re going to save a fortune. ... I don’t think he should be playing that game with me,” Trump told reporters.

Musk, who campaigned with Trump in 2024, has been publicly critical of the tax and spending bill making its way through Congress. The legislation appears set to cut government support for green energy and electric cars while raising the projected federal deficit, relative to current law.

On social media site X, Musk responded to a screenshot of Trump’s post with “I am literally saying CUT IT ALL. Now.”

Musk’s criticism of the administration’s spending plans appeared to be one reason for a public feud in early June, which led to a sell-off in Tesla’s stock. Then, tensions appeared to cool, and Tesla shares had rebounded more than 11% since June 5.

However, the Tesla CEO has started his criticism of the tax bill again, and also taken aim at the Republican Party. On Monday, Musk said on X that it was “time for a new political party that actually cares about the people.”