Swiss Watch Exports Fell Again In October Amid US Trade Tariffs

Forex

Economic

Summary:

Swiss watch exports fell for a third month as US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs continued to weigh on the industry.

Watch exports fell 4.4% in October from a year earlier to 2.2 billion Swiss francs ($2.7 billion), the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry said Thursday. Exports to the US — the largest market — slumped 47%. China, though, grew for a second month as exports rose 13%.

Tariffs have been the dominant narrative in the Swiss watch industry since Trump imposed a 39% levy on Switzerland — higher than the European Union and other developed economies — that went into effect on Aug. 7.

Watchmakers and other Swiss exporters finally got some good news last week when the US said it would cut the tariff to 15% — though there is no specific date for the new agreement to take effect.

Many producers had rushed to build up inventory in July to avoid the new levies, which left watchmakers controlled by the likes of Richemont, Swatch Group AG and LVMH, as well as independents including Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe and Rolex SA, facing diminished margins in their key market.

Manufacturers of watches, machines and precision instruments were among sectors hit hardest by the 39% levy, according to Switzerland's central bank, but the impact has extended beyond them with Switzerland's overall exports to the US also retreating in October.

Speaking on the day the tariff reduction was announced, Breitling AG Chief Executive Officer Georges Kern said he welcomed the cut, though he said the industry wanted to see the original levy of 2% reinstated. Swiss-made watches do not compete with domestic production or jeopardize jobs in the US, he added.

"The Swiss watch industry is further an important employer in the US, both for repair services and retail operations," he said in an interview.

Prices for lower-valued watches rose in October, though that was partially offset by a sharp 7% decline for watches priced at over 3,000 francs, the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry said.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Gerik

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Secret Diplomacy Stirs Political Shockwaves

Amid ongoing hostilities, Ukraine was blindsided by media reports this week suggesting the United States and Russia have quietly formulated a new peace proposal to end the war without Ukrainian input. According to leaks first reported by Axios and later echoed by major outlets like the Financial Times and Reuters, the alleged 28-point plan includes controversial elements such as Ukraine ceding effective control of its eastern Donbas region, halving its military, and surrendering access to specific weapon systems.

While the White House has neither confirmed nor denied the existence of this specific plan, Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged that Washington is “developing a list of potential ideas” for a negotiated settlement, emphasizing the need for “difficult but necessary concessions” from both sides. This suggests a correlation between U.S. urgency to end the war and its willingness to explore bold diplomatic pathways even ones that might compromise Ukrainian sovereignty.

Ukraine’s Exclusion Sparks Outcry and Uncertainty

One of the most controversial aspects of the reports is that Kyiv was reportedly not involved in the drafting of the proposed framework. Ukrainian officials admitted they had only received vague “signals” from Washington about peace ideas but were not active participants in crafting the proposals.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, while publicly expressing support for U.S.-led peace efforts, notably stated that only President Trump has the influence necessary to end the war. However, Zelenskyy did not confirm endorsement of the reported 28-point plan. First Deputy Foreign Minister Serhii Kyslytsia appeared more critical, dismissing such ideas as unrealistic narratives manufactured by Moscow. This disconnect between diplomatic fronts and internal sentiments highlights a growing strain within Ukraine’s strategic alliances.

Concessions Under Scrutiny

Among the most alarming alleged conditions is the possibility that Russia could assume administrative control over Donbas while formally leasing the land from Ukraine an arrangement likened to a sovereignty-for-stability tradeoff. Other provisions reportedly include a 50% reduction in Ukraine’s armed forces and an abandonment of long-range weapon systems.

The causal implication of such a framework is a dramatic weakening of Ukraine’s defensive posture, which could embolden Russia in future conflicts. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned the plan “would amount to Ukraine’s full capitulation” and create conditions favorable for renewed Russian aggression, with no reciprocal territorial or military compromises on Moscow’s side.

Europe Reacts with Alarm

European Union leaders have expressed concern about the reports, especially regarding the apparent exclusion of Ukraine and other regional stakeholders from the process. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stated, “For any plan to work, it needs to have Ukrainians and Europeans on board.” Her remarks reinforce the correlated diplomatic risk of a bilateral peace deal undermining multilateral alliances and fragmenting the Western front on Ukraine.

The EU’s position is particularly significant given Europe’s central role in sanctions enforcement, humanitarian aid, and military support. A peace plan perceived as US–Russia-driven could erode trust and strain transatlantic coordination.

Ukraine Caught Between Dependency and Autonomy

With U.S. military and financial support still critical to Ukraine’s war effort but showing signs of slowdown Kyiv finds itself in a delicate strategic position. On one hand, it must maintain close alignment with Washington to ensure continued aid. On the other, it risks losing agency over its future if left out of high-stakes negotiations.

Zelenskyy’s openness to “any meaningful formats” signals flexibility but also desperation. Ukraine’s current geopolitical vulnerability means it may be forced to accept compromises to avoid diplomatic isolation or aid reductions an uncomfortable reality that adds further pressure on the country’s leadership.

The emergence of a secretive U.S.–Russia peace framework, particularly one allegedly crafted without Ukraine’s involvement, marks a potentially pivotal shift in the trajectory of the war. While the plan remains unconfirmed, its reported terms have already sparked fierce backlash and strategic anxiety across Kyiv and its European allies. As discussions progress, Ukraine must navigate the perilous balance between maintaining sovereignty and securing international support while the broader world watches closely for signs of how this conflict, and the alliances behind it, may evolve.

Source: CNBC

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Adam

Economic

U.S. stock futures soared Thursday after strong numbers from AI darling Nvidia eased concerns surrounding the heightened valuations in the heavily-weighted tech sector. More earnings from retail giant Walmart are scheduled, as well as the eagerly anticipated September official jobs report.

Nvidia surpasses bullish expectations

Nvidia has provided global markets with a positive jolt, as the chipmaker’s stellar third-quarter earnings and fourth-quarter forecast calmed, for now, investor nerves that the artificial intelligence (AI) boom has resulted in unsustainable valuations.

The world’s most valuable company posted third-quarter sales growth of 62%, the first acceleration in seven quarters, and also said it expected fiscal fourth-quarter sales of $65 billion, plus or minus 2%, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $61.66 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.

CEO Jensen Huang shrugged off concerns about an AI bubble, doubts that had pushed Nvidia’s shares down nearly 8% in November, after a surge of 1,200% in the past three years.

"There’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble. From our vantage point, we see something very different," CEO Jensen Huang said on a call with analysts.

Huang also reiterated that AI-fueled demand for Nvidia’s chips remained strong beyond just Wall Street’s hyperscalers, and that the company was set to continue benefiting from this trend in the coming quarters.

"We’re in every cloud. The reason why developers love us is because we’re literally everywhere," he said. "We’re everywhere from cloud to on-premise to robotic systems, edge devices, PCs, you name it. One architecture. Things just work. It’s incredible."

Huang also reiterated a forecast from last month that the company had $500 billion in bookings for its advanced chips through 2026.

Adding another potential tailwind, the Donald Trump administration is asking Congress to reject a proposed measure that seeks to limit Nvidia’s ability to sell artificial intelligence chips to China and embargoed countries, Bloomberg reported.

U.S. futures jump on Nvidia’s beat

U.S. stock futures rose strongly Thursday after Nvidia’s earnings beat helped to restore confidence, particularly in the heavily-weighed technology stocks.

At 03:20 ET (08:20 GMT), the S&P 500 futures traded 85 points, or 1.3%, higher Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 430 points, or 1.8%, and Dow futures rose 290 points, or 0.6%.

All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Wednesday, snapping a four-day slide for both indexes, but are still on course for a negative week given the depth of the recent pullback.

Nvidia shares soared premarket after its highly anticipated quarterly results beat expectations, while its upbeat guidance has lifted investor sentiment around the AI trade.

Elsewhere, retail giant Walmart is also set to release its quarterly results, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release September nonfarm payrolls data, which was delayed by the U.S. government shutdown.

“Should the jobs data fail to swing the market towards a Fed cut in December (currently 50% priced), then pressure remains on equity markets,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

Nonfarm payrolls up next

The U.S. Labor Department’s closely watched employment report for September will be released later in the session, and is likely to confirm consistently sluggish conditions within the important labor market.

The report was delayed by the 43-day shutdown of the government, which has also resulted in the cancellation of the October report, elevating the significance of this release ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting.

The Fed will still lack much of the data it usually relies on at the time of its next policy meeting on December 10, with the next jobs report now postponed until six days later to December 16.

Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 50,000 jobs in September, which would be more than double the 22,000 positions added in August, while the unemployment rate held steady near a four-year high of 4.3%.

“In years past a ~50K monthly jobs pace would be a bright green light for the Fed to slash rates, but in current environment, with a much lower break-even level (the break-even level for the U.S. economy might only be around 50K or less) and elevated inflation, the central bank won’t be as quick to act,” said analysts at Vital Knowledge, in a note.

Walmart due to report earnings

Walmart, the largest retailer in the world, will become the latest company from the important sector to report earnings later in the session, offering potential insights into the outlook for the crucial holiday shopping season.

Analysts expect Walmart to report $177.5 billion in revenue, a roughly 4.7% increase from a year earlier, resulting in about $0.60 in earnings per diluted share, up from $0.58 a year earlier.

These results will come after the retail titan said CEO Doug McMillon will retire next year after more than a decade in charge.

Since taking the job in 2014, McMillon has overseen a tripling in Walmart’s value to $817 billion, underpinned by a longstanding effort to battle Amazon in e-commerce sales.

The sector has seen mixed results so far this week.

Target lowered the upper end of its full-year earnings guidance and reiterated that it expects sales to drop in the current quarter, while Home Depot forecast a bigger drop in full-year profit.

On the flip side, Lowe’s reported third-quarter adjusted earnings that exceeded analyst expectations, and lifted its full-year 2025 sales outlook.

Crude set for weekly gains

Oil prices rose Thursday, on course for weekly gains, helped by a bigger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude stockpiles.

Brent futures gained 0.6% to $63.86 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.6% to $59.59 a barrel.

Both contracts are set to post weekly gains of over 1%, ahead of the November 21 deadline set by the U.S. for companies to wind down their business with Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s two biggest oil producers.

Lending some support to prices was the bigger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude stockpiles reported on Wednesday, as crude inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels in the week ended November 14, the Energy Information Administration said.

Crude prices fell sharply on Wednesday following a Reuters report that the U.S. had signalled to Ukraine to accept a U.S.-drafted framework to end the war with Russia.

Source : investing

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Michelle

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Kremlin stated on Thursday that any peace plan for Ukraine would need to address the root causes of the conflict, while confirming that despite ongoing contacts with the United States, no formal negotiations are currently taking place.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicated there was nothing to add beyond what was discussed at the August summit in Anchorage, Alaska, between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump.

"We can't add anything new to what was said in Anchorage," Peskov told reporters, clarifying the nature of current diplomatic interactions. "As such, consultations are not currently underway. There are contacts, of course, but there is no process that could be called consultations."

When questioned about whether Putin had been briefed on a reported "28-point peace plan," Peskov declined to provide details, reiterating: "I have nothing to add to what I have already said."

Peskov emphasized Russia's position that "a settlement must lead to the elimination of the root causes of this conflict," though he did not elaborate on what Moscow considers those root causes to be.

Source: Investing

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Gerik

Economic

Stocks

Nvidia Delivers a Market-Critical Signal

Global technology stocks surged Thursday after Nvidia posted quarterly earnings far above expectations, easing fears that enthusiasm around artificial intelligence had outpaced fundamentals. The chipmaker reported a 62% year-over-year revenue increase to $57.01 billion and issued strong forward guidance, sending its shares up 5% in premarket trading.

This causal earnings surprise reinforced investor conviction in AI as a viable long-term growth theme, dispelling fears that tech valuations were outpacing performance. Nvidia’s trajectory from $15 billion in data center revenue just three years ago to projected $280 billion next year underscores its central role in the AI ecosystem.

Global Tech Stocks Rebound

The ripple effect of Nvidia’s results was immediate and global. In Europe, Dutch chip firms BESI and ASMI rose over 3% and 2% respectively, while semiconductor equipment leader ASML gained 2.1%. In Asia, Samsung Electronics and Hon Hai Precision Industry (Foxconn) jumped 3.5% and 3.3%, reflecting renewed optimism among key suppliers and manufacturers tied to AI hardware infrastructure.

U.S. premarket action mirrored the bullish sentiment: AMD rose 5%, Arm Holdings gained nearly 4%, and Micron Technology added 2.7%. Other beneficiaries included Marvell Technology (+3.3%), Broadcom (+3.1%), and Intel (+2%), marking a correlated surge across the semiconductor and AI-linked hardware spectrum.

Investor Sentiment: Confidence, But With Caution

Dan Hanbury of Ninety One, whose global strategic equity fund counts Nvidia as its second-largest holding, emphasized that while the positive market reaction is encouraging, volatility remains. “We can get caught up in quarterly noise,” he warned, but noted that Nvidia’s long-term data center growth remains exceptional, describing it as “phenomenal.”

Still, the magnitude of AI-linked capital flows is raising eyebrows. Karen McCormick, CIO at Beringea, noted that the deep entwinement between investors and AI firms including Nvidia and Microsoft’s $15 billion backing of Anthropic creates systemic interdependence. This mirrors traditional vendor financing, but on a scale of “hundreds of billions of dollars,” introducing systemic risk correlations if the AI hype cycle were to reverse.

Bubble Risks Balanced by Strong Fundamentals

While concerns over an AI bubble persist, McCormick highlighted that most players in this space like Nvidia, Microsoft, and their AI affiliates are backed by solid balance sheets and deep-pocketed investors. This suggests that even in the event of a market correction, causal risk mitigation may come through institutional stability and long-term strategic capital.

Still, the ecosystem’s tightly linked nature, with multiple firms dependent on shared technological infrastructure and investment flows, poses structural risks. If one major AI player falters, the domino effect across vendors, platforms, and supporting services could prove destabilizing.

Nvidia’s blockbuster results have temporarily silenced fears of an AI valuation bubble and reignited optimism across global tech markets. However, the highly intertwined structure of the AI ecosystem and massive capital commitments underpinning it mean that any future disruptions could reverberate widely. For now, Nvidia’s momentum has reaffirmed investor faith in AI’s commercial viability but the long-term sustainability of this rally hinges on whether earnings can continue keeping pace with expectations.

Source: CNBC

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Adam

Stocks

MARKET WRAPS

European shares were on the rise on Thursday as risk sentiment improved following upbeat results from Nvidia, easing worries about an artificial-intelligence bubble.

Investors were also weighing the minutes of the Federal Reserve's October meeting , which were on the hawkish side and showed divisions on the future rate path, Jefferies said.

Market watchers now await the release of September nonfarm payroll numbers for more cues into labor market trends.

However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that the full October U.S. nonfarm payrolls report won't be published due to the government shutdown. The November data will include some October figures but won't be released until after the Fed's December decision.

"This reduces the data availability for the Fed before the meeting and thus makes a [decision to hold rates] more likely ," Deutsche Bank said.

The likelihood of a Fed interest-rate cut in December is currently at a 27% probability, according to LSEG data.

Shares on the Move

European chip stocks rose in morning trade after Nvidia delivered revenue that beat expectations and gave a bullish forecast for the next quarter .

Nvidia delivered an impressive performance, suggesting that the performance gap versus peers is likely to widen , Deutsche Bank said.

U.S. Markets:

Stock futures climbed on Thursday as Nvidia's earnings reignited the AI rally.

"It's fair to say that Nvidia's results have completely changed the market mood and pushed out any [AI] bubble fears for another day," Deutsche Bank said.

Forex:

The euro's declines against the dollar are much more than what interest rate differentials justify, ING said.

The dollar rose as the market scaled back expectations of another Fed rate cut next month.

Sterling was trading with a moderate risk premi um that is likely to remain in place until next Wednesday's U.K. budget, ING said.

Bonds:

Eurozone government bond yields edged higher , tracking Treasury yields, as improved market sentiment reduces demand for safe havens such as bonds.

Government bond issuance volumes picked up in the eurozone with Spain and France selling bonds on Thursday, although the upcoming supply was unlikely to weigh on prices significantly , said Commerzbank Research.

Treasury yields edged higher after the minutes of the Fed's October meeting said there were "strongly differing views" about the committee's policy decision in December.

The 10-year Treasury yield is now nearly within Jefferies's target range of 4.15%-4.20%. "Hence, we see only limited upside in rates from these levels ," it said.

Energy:

Oil prices rose after settling 2% lower in the previous session as investors weigh risks to Russian supplies and a mixed U.S. inventory report.

"Going forward, markets will focus on how sanctions reshape trade flows , whether supply growth continues to outpace demand, and the extent to which geopolitical risks inject fresh volatility into prices," MUFG said.

Metals:

Gold prices slipped on a stronger dollar and lower December rate-cut expectations.

Gold faces headwinds from steady policy and a stronger dollar, which saw its biggest jump since September," MUFG said.

Copper

Copper rose in early trading as recent selling pressures appeared to have stabilized, said Sucden Financial.

The base metal was likely also bolstered by improved sentiment on a report from Chile's copper agency Cochilco, which is now expecting an improved price environment , said ANZ Research.

Lithium

Lithium prices were getting a tailwind from a turnaround in market sentiment but continued to face risks from a potential resurgence in supply , said BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions.

Iron

Iron ore declined as a persistent downturn in the Chinese property sector continues to weigh on demand.

EMEA HEADLINES

Swiss Watch Exports Continue on Downward Trend in U.S. Tariff Fallout

Exports of Swiss watches remained on a declining trend in October, driven by a sharp decrease in the U.S. as tariffs continue to take a toll.

Total exports of Swiss timepieces dropped 4.4% in October compared with the same period last year to 2.24 billion Swiss francs ($2.78 billion), according to data published Thursday by the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, or FH.

BNP Raises Profitability Targets, to Launch $1.33 Billion Buyback

BNP Paribas raised its profitability targets and said it would launch a 1.15 billion-euro ($1.33 billion) share buyback.

The French financial services group said it would accelerate the disposal of nonstrategic assets while delivering growth from risk-weighted assets of around 2% a year in a push to grow profits.

Novartis Expects Steady Sales Growth Through 2030

Novartis rolled forward its midterm sales target to the 2025-30 period and said it is well positioned beyond, citing higher expectations for key drugs that reinforce its confidence in delivering steady top-line growth.

The Swiss pharmaceutical company said it expects sales to grow at an annual pace of 5% to 6% between 2025 and 2030 when excluding currency movements. Last month, following its $12 billion agreement to buy Avidity Biosciences, the company lifted its annual sales growth guidance for the 2024-29 period to 6% from 5%.

Germany's Renk Lifts Midterm Revenue Guidance as Europe Bulks Up Defense

German gearbox maker Renk Group lifted its midterm revenue-growth expectations as Europe increases spending on military equipment.

The company said Thursday that it expects revenue in 2030 to range between 2.8 billion and 3.2 billion euros ($3.23 billion-$3.69 billion), excluding mergers and acquisitions, compared with a previous forecast of 2.5 billion to 3 billion euros including M&A.

GLOBAL NEWS

U.S. Approves Deal to Sell AI Chips to Middle East

The Commerce Department approved the sale of up to 70,000 advanced artificial-intelligence chips to two companies based in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, a big win for the Middle East nations as they seek to catch up in the AI race.

The approvals are a reversal from earlier this year, when some administration officials rejected the idea of exporting directly to the state-backed companies over security concerns. President Trump has been talking to leaders of both countries about chip access since he visited in May, discussions that continued this week with Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Fed's October Rate Decision Fueled Pushback Over Possible December Cut

Divisions over whether the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates next month deepened at officials' October meeting, leaving a growing contingent-and potentially a narrow majority-of policymakers uncomfortable with a December rate reduction.

"Participants expressed strongly differing views about what policy decision would most likely be appropriate at the committee's December meeting," according to a written record of the meeting released Wednesday afternoon with the customary three-week lag.

Labor Department Won't Publish October Unemployment Rate

The Labor Department said Wednesday it wouldn't issue complete October jobs data because of the effects of the government shutdown.

The longest shutdown on record, which ended last week, stopped the government from gathering numbers needed to calculate the October unemployment rate and other labor-force data, the Labor Department said. That data "is not able to be retroactively collected," it said.

China Is Priming Its People and the World for a New Pressure Campaign on Taiwan

Mao Zedong once said that China must wield both the pen and the gun against its adversaries. It is a strategy China is now intensifying for Taiwan.

With its so-called pen, China's state television is preparing the domestic Chinese population for a new phase of pressure against Taiwan.

Pakistan's Army Chief, Trump's 'Favorite Field Marshal,' Cements Power

The most powerful man in Pakistan is having a stellar year.

Pakistan army chief Asim Munir put up a strong show in a short conflict with India earlier this year-becoming only the second army officer in Pakistan to earn the title of field marshal-and successfully reset ties with U.S. President Trump, who hosted Munir at the White House in June and has called the general his "favorite field marshal."

Trump Weighs Executive Order Targeting State AI Laws

President Trump is restarting attacks on states trying to regulate artificial intelligence, calling for Congress to pre-empt such laws while weighing an executive order that would target states with what he thinks are restrictive regulations.

Trump Administration Pushes New Plan for Ending Ukraine War

WASHINGTON-The Trump administration has drafted a 28-point peace plan that calls for Ukraine to make major territorial concessions to Russia and drop demands for a peacekeeping force to deter future attacks by Moscow, U.S. officials said, resurfacing ideas that Kyiv has already rejected.

The administration is attempting the same approach it used to achieve a U. S.-brokered cease-fire in Gaza last month-draft a multi-point outline and then push the warring parties to accept it, officials said.

Source: morningstar

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Warren Takunda

Economic

During the 43-day US government shutdown, investors, businesses, policymakers, and the Federal Reserve were groping in the dark for clues about the health of the American job market. The federal workers who collect data on hiring and unemployment had been furloughed and couldn’t do their jobs.

Now that the shutdown is over, the Labor Department will finally let a little light in on Thursday, releasing jobs numbers for September — nearly seven weeks after they were due.

Economists expect to see a continuation of what was happening in the spring and summer: weak hiring but few layoffs. That awkward pairing means Americans who have already found work mostly enjoy job security, and those who don’t often struggle to find employment.

Economists predict that US employers added 50,000 jobs in September, unimpressive but an improvement on the paltry 22,000 they added in August. And forecasters expect that the unemployment rate remained at a low 4.3%, according to a survey by FactSet.

Normally the stock and bond markets would shrug off such old data, said market strategist Matthew Ryan at the financial services firm Ebury. But investors are so desperate for fresh economic news that “we expect volatility around the report to be extremely high".

September job data could sway interest rate cut

The job market has been strained this year by the lingering effects of high interest rates engineered to fight a 2021-2022 spike in inflation and uncertainty around Trump’s campaign to slap taxes on imports from almost every country on earth and on specific products — from copper to foreign films.

Labor Department revisions in September showed that the economy created 911,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the year that ended in March. That meant that employers added an average of just 71,000 new jobs a month over that period, not the 147,000 first reported.

Since March, job creation has slowed even more — to an average 53,000 a month. During the 2021-2023 hiring boom that followed COVID-19 lockdowns, by contrast, the economy was creating 400,000 jobs a month.

Stephen Stanley, chief US economist at the bank Santander, is a bit more optimistic about September hiring than most of his peers. He forecasts that employers added 75,000 jobs.

President Donald Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration is expected to reduce the number of people looking for work, which means that the economy can create fewer jobs without sending the unemployment rate higher.

In the past, Stanley wrote in a commentary on Wednesday, the “breakeven’’ point for monthly job creation was seen as somewhere between 125,000 and 150,000. But as fewer immigrants seek work, he says, the job market can remain stable even if employers add just 50,000 jobs a month, maybe fewer.

Once the September numbers are out, businesses, investors, policymakers and the Fed will have to wait awhile to get another good look at the American labour market.

The Labor Department said Wednesday that it won't release a full jobs report for October because it couldn't calculate the unemployment rate during the government shutdown.

Instead, it will release some of the October jobs data — including the number of jobs that employers created last month — along with the full November jobs report on 16 December, a couple of weeks late.

That means the September jobs numbers will likely get extra attention. They are the last full measurement of hiring and unemployment that Fed policymakers will see before they meet on 9-10 December to decide whether to cut their benchmark interest rate for the third time this year.