S&P500 and Dow Jones: US Indices Stall Today Despite Soft CPI and Trade Deal Hopes

Stocks

Summary:

U.S. stocks stalled despite soft inflation and trade deal hopes. The S&P 500 nears record highs, but investors paused amid profit-taking, cautious Fed outlook, and skepticism over U.S.–China trade progress.

Stocks Open Flat as Inflation Relief and Trade Optimism Fail to Extend Rally

Daily E-mini S&P 500 Index

U.S. markets opened with little conviction Wednesday, following a strong rebound over the past week. Softer inflation data and progress toward a U.S.-China trade framework failed to trigger another leg higher. The S&P 500 was flat in early trading, the Dow slipped 0.1%

, and the Nasdaq rose 0.2% as investors paused to assess recent gains.

With the S&P 500 just 2% off all-time highs and up in six of the past seven sessions, traders appeared content to lock in some profits. The pause came despite signs of easing inflation and a tentative deal between the world’s two largest economies on rare earth exports and tech access.

Does a Cooler CPI Signal Fed Flexibility?

May’s consumer price index rose 0.1%, undercutting economist estimates of 0.2%. Core CPI also landed at 0.1%, suggesting that price pressures remain tame despite tariff concerns. According to Goldman Sachs, companies may still be relying on existing inventories and delayed price adjustments in response to demand uncertainty.

This lighter CPI print gave bond yields some breathing room and helped reinforce bets that the Federal Reserve may have scope to ease policy if labor market data weakens further. For now, traders are focusing on upcoming job figures to gauge whether rate cuts may move from discussion to decision in the coming months.

Will the U.S.–China Deal Deliver Market Support?

Investors also digested early headlines from a preliminary U.S.–China trade outline reached in London. Under the proposal, China would resume rare earth mineral exports, while the U.S. would ease certain restrictions on tech sales. President Trump described the deal as “done, subject to final approval,” touting tariff advantages and concessions on education access for Chinese students.

Though the announcement offered a brief sentiment lift, traders remain skeptical until more specifics are finalized. Past negotiations have unraveled before full agreements were signed, keeping risk appetite in check.

Which Stocks Are Reacting at the Open?

Early movers reflected mixed sentiment. Warner Bros Discovery and First Solar rose over 2%, while Lockheed Martin and Nucor saw notable declines, shedding nearly 7% and 6%, respectively. Tesla also gained pre-market after announcing a July launch of its robotaxi program, adding a speculative bid to growth names.

Market Forecast: Will the Rally Resume or Stall Here?

With inflation data supportive and trade headlines encouraging but incomplete, markets may tread water near highs as traders await further catalysts. Eyes now turn to labor market data and Fed commentary.

If yields stay subdued and economic surprises remain mild, the current consolidation could set the stage for another test of February’s record highs.

However, lack of progress on trade or signs of economic softness may prompt a defensive rotation. Traders should remain data-driven and alert to headline risk.

Source: fxempire

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Daniel Carter

Commodity

The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories report, a key indicator of the balance between supply and demand in the US oil market, showed a decrease of 3.644 million barrels for the week. This figure represents a slight recovery from the previous week's decline, but still indicates a robust demand for crude oil.

The latest decrease in inventories was less than the forecasted drop of 2.4 million barrels. This suggests that demand for crude oil remains strong, but not as strong as analysts had predicted. Nevertheless, the decrease in inventories is still a bullish sign for crude prices, as it indicates that demand is outstripping supply.

Compared to the previous week's decrease of 4.304 million barrels, the latest figure indicates a slight slowdown in the rate of inventory depletion. This could suggest that while demand remains robust, it may be starting to ease slightly. Alternatively, it could indicate that production has picked up, leading to a slower drawdown of inventories.

The level of crude oil inventories is a crucial factor in determining the price of petroleum products. When inventories are high, it suggests that supply is outpacing demand, which can put downward pressure on prices. Conversely, when inventories are low, it suggests that demand is outstripping supply, which can put upward pressure on prices.

The EIA's Crude Oil Inventories report is closely watched by investors and analysts as it provides valuable insight into the dynamics of the US oil market. Given the importance of the US as a major oil producer and consumer, changes in its crude oil inventories can have significant implications for global oil prices and the broader energy market.

Source: Investing

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Adam

Commodity

Oil prices rallied as US President Donald Trump signaled skepticism over talks with Iran and confidence in a trade deal with China.

West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) rose as much as 2.3% to the highest since early April. Trump told the New York Post he’s “less confident” about whether he can convince Tehran to agree on shutting down its nuclear program. Earlier, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a nuclear deal was “within reach” and could be “achieved rapidly.”

Further bolstering futures, US inflation data also came in below estimates, weighing on the dollar, which makes raw materials priced in the currency more appealing.

“Oil prices jumped on comments from US President Trump that downplayed the potential for a near-term nuclear deal with Iran,” said Jens Naervig Pedersen, a strategist at Danske Bank. “The comments add to the recent sentiment boost in the oil market from progress in trade talks and potential for tighter sanctions on Russia.”

Oil Rallies as Trump Doubts Iran Talks, Sees China Deal ‘Done’_1

Trump also posted on social media that a trade deal with China was “done,” subject to the approval of President Xi Jinping. The agreement would still see some tariffs between the two nations, he said, without elaborating. Global markets swung after the comments.

Crude has dropped this year as trade concerns hurt the appetite for risk assets, including commodities. At the same time, OPEC+ has moved to restore idled capacity at a faster-than-expected pace, boosting concerns about a glut later this year. Prices have recovered in recent sessions, supported by easing trade tensions and the outlook for summer demand.

A monthly report from the US Energy Information Administration underscored the oil market’s current uncertainties. While the agency expects supply to eclipse demand by 800,000 barrels a day this year, the most since it began publishing a forecast for 2025, it also doesn’t see US crude production topping last month’s levels before the end of next year, a sign that lower prices are curbing some supply.

An industry estimate, meanwhile, projected that US crude inventories fell by about 400,000 barrels last week. The drawdown would be the third decline in a row, if confirmed by official data later Wednesday.

Signs of market tightness have also appeared along the futures curve. Earlier this week, the February-March WTI spread flipped to backwardation — where near-term prices are higher than longer-dated ones — for the first time since April, with several subsequent months following suit earlier today, signaling concerns about oversupply are easing.

Source : Bloomberg

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Owen Li

Economic

President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance are now double-teaming the Federal Reserve in an effort to get lower interest rates.

In a social media post Wednesday morning on X, Vance echoed his boss’s urging that the central bank ease monetary policy, after the latest inflation readings showed that tariffs are yet to exert any substantial upward pressure on inflation.

“The president has been saying this for a while, but it’s even more clear: the refusal by the Fed to cut rates is monetary malpractice,” Vance wrote.

The statement followed a Bureau of Labor Statistics report showing that the consumer price index increased just 0.1% both on the all-items reading and the core that excludes food and energy. On an annual basis, the respective inflation levels stood at 2.4% and 2.8%, both above the Fed’s 2% goal.

While Trump had yet to address the CPI numbers himself Wednesday, the president has been badgering Chair Jerome Powell and his cohorts on the Federal Open Market Committee to cut rates. The Fed last eased in December, and officials lately have expressed concern over the longer-term impacts that tariffs will have on prices. Trump has said he wants a full percentage point cut from the current target level for the fed funds rate at 4.25%-4.5%.

The FOMC will release its interest rate decision in a week, and markets are assigning zero probability of a rate cut following the two-day meeting. Traders expect the Fed to ease in September, according to CME Group data.

Administration officials have emphasized the easing inflation data as well as a moderating labor market as reasons to lower rates.

“To me, that combination says it may be time for another rate cut, but I expect the Fed to emphasize the ongoing uncertainty and a desire to not act too early. It’s a tough spot,” said Elyse Ausenbaugh, head of investment strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Source:CNBC

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Stocks

It’s been a sluggish year for the Dow Jones Industrial Average compared to the broader market. As of early June, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) is up just over 1%, trailing the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), which has gained nearly 3%.

The reason for the underperformance is, in large part, a single stock.

UNH Drags on DIA

UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) has shaved roughly three percentage points off the Dow’s year-to-date return. No other stock in the 30-member index has contributed more than 0.9 percentage points in either direction.

Shares of UnitedHealth have been pummeled in 2025, falling more than 40% year to date due to concerns around Medicare Advantage margins and regulatory pressures—issues we’ve covered in depth previously.

That sharp decline has been especially painful for the Dow, a price-weighted index. Unlike the market-cap-weighted S&P 500, the Dow gives more influence to companies with higher share prices. At the start of the year, UnitedHealth was trading around $500 per share, making it the second-largest holding in DIA with nearly an 8% weight.

Now, with the stock hovering closer to $300, its weight has declined but remains substantial at about 4.4%, making it the ETF’s eighth-largest position. The drop illustrates how the Dow’s price-weighting methodology can amplify the impact of high-priced stocks, for better or worse.

Damage Contained

Still, the damage is surprisingly contained. Despite the collapse of one of its biggest components, DIA is lagging VOO by only about two percentage points. That speaks to the index’s sector diversification and the resilience of its blue-chip constituents.

For all its quirks—including a relatively small roster of 30 stocks and price-based weighting—the Dow remains an interesting gauge of large-cap U.S. companies.

This year’s performance is a reminder that even in a concentrated portfolio, diversification across industries and solid fundamentals can help soften the blow from an individual stock meltdown.

source : finance.yahoo

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Adam

Commodity

Gold prices are posting good gains in early U.S. trading Wednesday, following a key U.S. inflation report that did not raise any new red flags. Silver prices are modestly down. August gold was last down $0.40 at $3,354.40. July silver prices were last up $0.034 at $36.835.

The just-released U.S. data point of the week, the consumer price index report for May, saw the CPI rise 2.4%, year-on-year, right in line with market expectations and compares to up 2.3% in the April report. The core CPI (minus food and energy) came in at up 2.8%, year-on-year, close to being in line with market expectations and was up 2.8% in the April report. The report does not suggest problematic price inflation down the road and falls into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy doves.

Asian and European stocks were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to firmer openings today in New York, and bumped up a bit after the CPI data. Trader and investor spirits were somewhat lifted after news reports said the U.S. and China have agreed on a framework to restore trade relations following two days of negotiations in London. No specifics were provided.

In other news, the World Bank said U.S. economic growth cut be cut in half due to tariffs and trade wars. The Bank forecast U.S. GDP growth of 1.4% in 2025, down from the 2.8% growth rate in 2024. The bank forecast global economic growth at 2.3% this year, down from its previous forecast of up 2.7%.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil futures prices are up and trading around $66.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently at 4.456%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, real earnings, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

Gold price higher following tame U.S. inflation data_1

Technically, August gold futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at last week’s high of $3,427.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,250.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $3,370.40 and then at $3,400.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $3,335.40 and then at $3,325.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

Gold price higher following tame U.S. inflation data_2

July silver futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $40.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $34.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $37.03 and then at $37.50. Next support is seen at $36.00 and then at $35.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

source : kitco

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Warren Takunda

Economic

A cooler-than-expected inflation reading from May is not likely to shake the view of most Federal Reserve policymakers that rates should stay on hold until there is more clarity about the impact from President Trump’s tariffs.

Some economists were expecting to see higher costs from those tariffs showing up in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released Wednesday, but instead CPI showed that inflation pressures were relatively stable and even eased on a monthly basis.

The "core" measure of CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 2.8% over the past year in May, matching April. Monthly core prices increased 0.1%, a touch below April's 0.2% gain. Mild CPI Inflation Reading Not Likely to Shake the Fed's Wait-and-See Stance on Tariffs_1

Mild CPI Inflation Reading Not Likely to Shake the Fed's Wait-and-See Stance on Tariffs_1

Economist Claudia Sham, founder of Sahm Consulting, told Yahoo Finance the May report doesn’t “necessarily tell us where we are headed by the end of the year” and “I don’t think we have a picture yet of what the costs are from the current” Trump administration trade policy.

But what this does, she added, is delay the Fed’s ability to conclude that any tariff price increases are in fact temporary — a conclusion that would allow it to start cutting rates again.

This "may mean we delay the rate cuts.”

Investors are not expecting an easing of monetary policy until September, at the earliest. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at its next meeting on June 17-18.

President Trump last week suggested the Federal Reserve and its chairman Jerome Powell should lower rates by a full percentage point, referring to moves made by other central banks to ease monetary policy.

"Europe has had 10 rate cuts, we have had none," he said in one social media post, adding "go for a full point, Rocket Fuel!"

Trump noted in a separate post that Powell is "is costing our Country a fortune. Borrowing costs should be MUCH LOWER!!!"

But a Labor Department jobs report released last week makes it even less likely the Fed will consider rate cuts in the near term, Fed watchers said, since it doesn't show that the labor market is grinding to a halt.

The Fed has not altered its benchmark rates at all in 2025 after reducing them by a full percentage point at the end of 2024, citing uncertainties about Trump's policies.

In fact, in recent weeks, several Fed policymakers have made it clear they are more worried about inflation than employment and thus are content to be patient about any changes to the Fed's current stance.

"I see greater upside risks to inflation at this juncture and potential downside risks to employment and output growth down the road, and this leads me to continue to support maintaining the FOMC's policy rate at its current setting if upside risks to inflation remain," Federal Reserve governor Adriana Kugler said last week in a speech at the Economic Club of New York.

Kansas City Fed president Jeff Schmid also said Thursday he is very focused on the risk for higher inflation from tariffs and that the Fed should "not let down our guard."

"While the tariffs are likely to push up prices, the extent of the increase is not certain, and likely will not be fully apparent for some time," Schmid added.

RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday after the CPI release that "we we're not really seeing much of the pass through, if some at all, from the tariffs," noting a 0.3% decline in new vehicles and 0.5% drop in used cars and trucks.

"But don't get too comfortable. When [companies] hike prices by 10% to 15%, it gets passed through eventually."